Global IT Market

What the IT market consists of

The global IT market includes several major segments, each of which has a separate article in the TAdviser knowledge base:

• Computer Technology (Global Market)
• Communication Equipment (Global Market)
• Software (Global Market)
• IT Services (Global Market)
• Information Security (Global Market)

Often IT is included in a broader concept - infocommunication technologies (ICT), which combines information technologies and communication services (see ICT (global market)).

This is how Forrester Research views the structure of the global ICT market.

Forecast (2016) of sales in the global ICT market in 2017 by segments, billion USD

Digital Transformation Costs

Main article: Spending on digital transformation

Trends

Global IT Market Trends

White Paper: Global IT Market Trends

Trends in software development

Main article: Trends in software development

Corporate IT Trends

Main article: Corporate Information Systems

• IT infrastructure in companies

Global Telecom Trends

Main article: Trends in global telecom

2023: Global market growth of 3.3% to $4.68 trillion

In 2023, the global IT market reached $4.68 trillion, which is 3.3% more than in the previous year. For comparison, in 2022, the growth dynamics was lower - at the level of 3%. Such data are given in a study by Gartner, the results of which were published on January 17, 2024.

It is noted that one of the main drivers of industry growth in 2023 was artificial intelligence systems, including generative ones. On the other hand, the difficult macroeconomic situation had a negative impact on the market. Companies are cautious about entering into new IT contracts and do not risk long-term initiatives.

Gartner divides the IT market into five key segments: data centers, electronic devices, enterprise-class software, IT services, and telecommunications services. The largest sector in 2023 was communication services with revenue of $1.44 trillion and an increase of about 1.5% on an annualized basis. This is followed by IT services with a result of $1.38 trillion - plus 5.8% compared to 2022. PO brought in $913.33 billion in revenue, which is 12.4% more year-on-year. The data center segment recorded an increase of 7.1% on an annualized basis - up to $243.06 billion. Only sales of electronic devices showed negative dynamics in 2023: the fall was 8.7% - to $699.79 billion.

The level of consumer spending is primarily determined by price changes and the duration of replacement cycles, which leaves opportunities only for gradual growth. Therefore, a drop in costs in the segment of electronic devices was inevitable, says John-David Lovelock, vice president of Gartner.

Analysts believe that in 2024 the global IT market will show growth of approximately 6.8% on an annualized basis, bringing its volume to $5 trillion.^[1]

2022

The global IT market grew at a rate of 5% per year between 2019 and 2022

The continued digitalization of the global economy over the past five years has been the main catalyst for increasing the global IT market, according to a Strategy Partners review published in September 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2020, has given additional impetus to the development of the IT market and the growth of demand for IT products.

The global IT market grew at a rate of 5% per year in the period 2019-2022, with software being the fastest growing segment.

The introduction of IT in all areas of business continues to create demand for IT products. This trend was most developed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, which led to an increase in the total number and use of IT solutions.

The slowdown in growth is having a negative impact on the development of the global IT market of the global economy due to the high, inflations protracted consequences of the pandemic, power the crisis, rising interest rates US FEDERAL RESERVE and tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone. In 2022, economic activity decreased in the three largest economies in the world -, and. USA European Union China

The recession in the global economy affected the business of global IT giants, which was expressed in employee cuts. Since the beginning of 2022, about 67 thousand people have been reduced in the US technology sector alone, and 121 thousand people in 795 companies worldwide.

The leading growth of the global software market is due to the fact that companies have become more active in investing in their digital sustainability (improving infrastructure reliability, introducing software for communications, organizing virtual desktops) to ensure business continuity during a period of pandemic restrictions. A full review of Strategy Partners is available at.

IT spending growth in the financial sector by 4.1% to $603.06 billion

The volume of IT spending in the financial sector in the world in 2022 reached $603.06 billion, which is 4.1% more than a year ago. Most of the IT budgets of banks and investment companies still fall on IT services, including cloud services. This is stated in the study, excerpts from which Gartner analysts published on June 21, 2023.

According to researchers, in 2022, credit and investment organizations on a global scale spent about $246.7 billion on IT services, which is 5.2% more than a year earlier. The second largest "digital" item of expenditure of such institutions was software - at the end of 2022, we are talking about an investment of $153.27 billion (+ 11.2% by 2021).

The largest growth rates of expenses in 2022 was shown by the segment of solutions for data centers, where the expenses of the financial sector increased by 13.2%, to $34.47 billion. At the same time, experts pay attention to the slowdown in growth in this segment.

Gartner interviewed Chief information officers working in banking and investment, and more than half of them said they plan to increase investment in cloud projects, while reducing spending on their own data centers. Most of the respondents pointed to the desire of their companies to invest more in information security, data management, analytics, integration technologies and cloud computing.

The study also notes that banks they are abandoning tangible assets and capital expenditures in favor of services and operating expenses in order to meet the changing expectations of customers and the market.

Instead of cutting IT budgets, organizations spend more on technologies that deliver better business results. Software spending, for example, is shifting from creating it in-house in favor of buying solutions that deliver faster returns on investment, said Gartner analyst Debbie Buckland, adding that economic problems in 2022 have changed the situation with IT investments in the sector in banking and investment services.

The report also notes that as global personnel shortages affect banking and investment organisations, domestic services costs will increase by 4.2% in 2023. This will increase the cost of hiring and retaining talented employees.

To adapt to the current economic climate, Chief information officer in banking and investment services organizations now favor more conservative goals that support sustainable growth, such as improving customer service and more efficient operations, says Pete Redshaw, vice president of analytics at Gartner. - This differs from the picture of past years, when direct growth - new territories, new customers, new lines of business - was the main goal of bank leaders.

The expert added that economic uncertainty forces businesses to break down long-term contracts into several shorter projects. In addition, companies are reluctant to sign new contracts, focus on long-term initiatives and take on new technology partners, which is driving demand for IT consulting services, Redshaw added. In his opinion, financial institutions need innovative solutions that can solve the problem of lack of IT personnel. Such actions can be the rejection of diploma requirements, constant advanced training on the ground, the creation of hybrid teams and partnerships in fintech.^[2]

2021: Gartner: Global IT spending to reach $4.5 trillion in 2022

Gartner published a forecast according to which the amount of funds spent globally on IT in 2022 will grow by 5.5% compared to 2021 and will reach $4.5 trillion. The report covers data center systems, enterprise software, devices, IT services, and communications services.

Digital initiatives will remain one of the top strategic business priorities for companies as they continue to reinvent the future of work, concentrating costs on building "bulletproof" infrastructure and adapting employees to increasingly complex hybrid work in 2022, noted John-David Lovelock.

According to Gartner forecasts, in 2022 about $1.5 trillion will be spent on communication services, and another $1.3 trillion will be spent on IT services. Costs for devices will amount to $820 billion, and for corporate software and data center systems - $700 and $207 billion, respectively.

The largest growth in expenses is expected in the corporate software sector. According to Gartner estimates, the 11.5% growth forecast for 2022 is due to the fact that "infrastructure software costs will continue to outstrip applied software costs."

Remote work, distance learning and telemedicine have led to the fact that device costs will peak in 2021, an increase of 15.1% compared to 2020, when costs for this item decreased by 1.5%. Next year, the growth rate of spending on devices will fall sharply.

Gartner expects that in 2022 there will still be an increase in the number of enterprises that update devices and/or invest in several devices in order to thrive in a hybrid operation, "said Lovelock.

According to him, in 2020 and 2021. not the technology itself has changed, but the readiness and desire of people to implement it and use it in a diverse way.

In 2022, CIO needs to change the configuration of the work, promoting business compositudes and technologies that allow organizing asynchronous workflows, - said Lovelock.

Gartner makes and updates its forecast on a quarterly basis based on an analysis of sales data of Gartner IT industry suppliers^[3]

2020

Boston Consulting Group: Russia accounted for 3% of IT companies founded since 2014

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, released in November 2020, Russia accounted for 3% of the total number of IT companies founded in developing countries since 2014. Read more here.

Gartner: IT market will sink 8% due to COVID-19

On May 13, 2020, the analytical company Gartner presented an updated forecast for the global IT market. If in January experts expected an increase in spending on information technology by 3.4% at the end of 2020 (up to $3.9 trillion), then after the revision they announced a negative indicator - -8% (up to $3.4 trillion).

Analysts attributed the predicted fall in the industry to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, due to which, as indicated in the study, there is a global economic recession, which, in turn, leads to a change in priorities among Chief information officers. They now focus on spending on "critical" technologies and services that drive business growth or transformation.

Chief information officer have moved to emergency cost optimization, in connection with which investments will be minimized and directed to operations that ensure the functioning of the business, which will become a top priority for most organizations throughout 2020, says John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner. - Recovery will not go the same way as downward-dragging factors create supply and demand problems amid how medical, social and commercial restrictions are beginning to ease.

The strongest decline is expected in the market for electronic devices, including computers and smartphones. Here sales in 2020 will decrease by 15.5%. Global spending on systems for data centers will decrease by 9.7%, and a decline of 7.7% and 6.9% is predicted in the IT services and corporate software segments, respectively, analysts predict.^[4]

At the same time, spending on public cloud services should grow by 19%, on cloud telephony and instant messengers by 8.8%, and on VKS solutions by 24.3%. This rise is facilitated by the massive transition of companies to remote work.

IDC assessed the impact of coronavirus on the global IT market

In early May 2020, the analytical company IDC published the results of a study on the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus on the IT market. According to experts, global IT spending in 2020 will decrease by 5.1% to $2.25 trillion. In January, analysts expected growth of the same 5.1%.

The costs of information and communication and business services will fall 3.4% to $4 trillion, and telecommunications costs will decrease by 0.8%. However, IT spending as a whole is projected to rise by nearly 4% to $237 billion, thanks to sustained spending by service providers and persistent corporate demand for cloud services, offsetting lower business capital costs.

The inevitable serious economic downturn, especially in the second quarter, will lead to a significant short-term reduction in IT spending by those companies and industries that were directly affected by the coronavirus epidemic, "explained Stephen Minton, vice president of IDC Customer Insights & Analysis. - Some firms will cut capital spending, while others either delay new projects or seek to cut costs in other ways. However, some sections of the IT market are more resistant to this economic downturn in relative terms, since technology has already become an integral part of business operations.

Overall spending on devices including PCs and phones will be significantly reduced in 2020, and this is a major limiting factor. On the other hand, infrastructure costs are expected to rise modestly as companies continue to fund existing cloud projects. Due to the situation in the economy, the transition to new models of smartphones with 5G support will not be as massive as expected, and in the PC market, the cycle of updating the corporate fleet ended in 2019, researchers say.^[5]

How coronavirus affects digital transformation in the world

By early April 2020, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is in full swing, hitting all markets and countries. The consequences of the spread of infection will also affect how companies and government agencies carry out digital transformation. This is the conclusion reached by analysts IDC and Gartner.

First, the pandemic as a whole should contribute to accelerated digital transformation, as the world began to actively switch to the use of information technology. Thus, educational institutions are introducing tools for distance learning and exams, companies are installing software for remote work and interaction of personnel, medical institutions have begun to minimize the arrival of patients in the offices of attending doctors, and stores massively launch contactless delivery services for goods.

IDC interviewed a large number of company executives from 10 different industries and got some interesting results. One of them is due to the fact that the business began to appreciate even more the projects of digital transformation and IT development of all employees. In addition, the pandemic has contributed to improving opportunities for remote work, as well as the development of marketing and business projects via the Internet.

This is a wake-up call for organizations that focus too much on day-to-day operations, neglecting investment in digital business and long-term stability, says Gartner senior analyst Sandy Shen on the impact of the coronavirus on the business environment. - Companies that can move technological capacity and investment to digital platforms will reduce the impact of the epidemic and ensure uninterrupted business now and in the future.

Thanks to the outbreak of the virus, companies are becoming more digital, they more often interact with their customers, albeit remotely. To manage personal data in IT, large companies are forced to implement specialized systems to manage information about users of their corporate systems. Previously, there was already a shortage of such specialists, and the situation with the coronavirus only worsened the situation.

A pandemic could push companies to split the account management process between different professionals. One, for example, can program connectors to security systems, configure internal workflows, write scripts, and deploy. The second should work with user data, describe business processes, document and promote the idea of ​ ​ managing accounts to the masses.

Digital identity management is often not included in companies' digital transformation strategies, but such processes are important because companies must verify that a person's electronic accounts match their real data when running any business on the Internet. This not only allows you to improve customer service, but also protect your business from fraud.

According to research firm IDC, the coronavirus outbreak led to a "significant slowdown" in IT equipment sales in the first quarter of 2020, and the healthcare crisis could continue to have a negative impact on corporate IT spending throughout the year.

Experts say that under the most pessimistic scenario, the volume of the IT market in 2020 could grow by 1.3%, while initially a 4.3% rise was expected. At the same time, it is likely that the forecast may be worsened depending on the duration and intensity of the pandemic.^[6]

The fall in IT spending in the world is expected at 4.6% due to the pandemic

The reduction in IT spending in 2020 in the world is projected at 4.6%, according to a survey of more than 1.3 thousand CIOs and IT managers by Enterprise Technology Research (ETR) on April 2, 2020. The main reason is the coronavirus pandemic, analysts say.

The survey was conducted between March 11 and March 30, 2020. According to ETR, over time, respondents' forecasts worsened: as of March 11, a decrease was expected at 0.7%, March 13 - 1.7%, March 17 - 3.3%, March 23 - 3.7%, March 27 - 4.1%.

The forecast worsened even despite the help announced by US President Donald Trump to support the American economy in the amount of an unprecedented $2 trillion.

According to the survey, 37% of companies do not expect a decrease or increase in IT spending in 2020, 21% predict an increase in spending, 9% expect an increase in spending by more than 10%, and 28% - a decrease of more than 10%.

According to Sagar Kadakia, Director of Research at ETR, positive expectations are due to the transition of a large number of employees to remote work, which should stimulate the development of the relevant IT infrastructure. However, many organizations are convinced that the pandemic will lead to lower demand and disruption of supply chains.

In mid-March 2020, IDC presented its own forecast. The company said it expects global IT spending to rise by 1% in 2020. At the same time, back in the January forecast, the figure of 5% of the growth^[7] appeared].

2019: China has more tech companies valued at $1bn than US

On October 21, 2019, the Hurun Research Institute reported that China had more unicorn tech startups than the United States. This was facilitated by the policy of the PRC and the hopes of venture capitalists to find a new Alibaba. Read more here.

2018

World's Largest IT Budgets: Top 10 Customers

On January 17, 2019, the companies with the highest expenses for information technology (equipment, software, services) for the previous year became known. The data was provided to The Wall Street Journal by analysts at International Data Corp. (IDC).

The leader in IT budgets at the end of 2018 was Amazon with a result of $13.6 billion. The three leaders included a maternal holding Google Alphabet and a retailer Walmart with close technological costs - at the level of $12 billion.

In fourth place in the ranking of companies that spend more than others on IT is the financial holding JPMorgan Chase with expenses of $9.2 billion in 2018. Approximately the same indicator was registered with Microsoft. Bank of America measured annual IT costs of $8.4 billion, Facebook - $7.9 billion, AT&T - $7 billion, Wells Fargo and Citigroup - $6.6 billion each.

According to IDC analyst David Lantsman, servers and other infrastructure for data centers accounted for most of the IT costs of Amazon and Google, as companies sell cloud services to corporate customers who, thanks to these products, are trying to reduce their IT budgets.

The IDC study covered a total of 4,800 companies, with total IT spending reaching $1.1 trillion in 2018. The share of the top ten was 7%,

Walmart, the only retailer in the top 10 companies with the largest IT costs, spends a lot on technology to improve its supply chain, e-commerce and logistics services, said Jeremy King, executive vice president and CTO of the American retail chain, at the National Retail Federation conference in New York in January 2019.

Walmart's estimated $11.7 billion IT budget from IDC includes spending on hand-held technology, registries and robots, King said. The company intends to spend even more in 2019, as it expands the introduction of robots in warehouses and stores, integrates them with product inventory management systems, etc.

Jeremy King said that in 2018, Walmart increased its IT team by 1,700 people and plans to add another 2,000 employees to it in 2019.

We are rapidly increasing investment in technology, "he said.

Amazon's growing cloud business requires a steady increase in servers, says David Lanzman.

They spend a lot of money on creating these computing platforms around the world, the expert added.

As can be seen in the chart above, four banks were among the top ten companies leading in IT spending in 2018. Lanzman explains this situation by the need for credit institutions to invest in cybersecurity and Internet banking tools.^[8]

4.2% increase in IT spending to $4 trillion - IDC

According to preliminary estimates of IDC, the volume of the global IT market in 2018 reached $4 trillion, an increase of 4.2% compared to 2017. At the end of 2019, a 3 percent decline is predicted due to problems in the economy associated with an increase in duties on the import of goods, an increase in interest rates of the US Federal Reserve, a slow growth of the Chinese market and the end of the capital spending cycle in companies.

By 2022, global IT spending will exceed $4.5 trillion, and the highest growth will be shown by services and software related to the so-called third platform (cloud computing, mobile technologies, big data, analytics and social services) and digital transformation projects. Cloud providers and their investments in data center infrastructure will become the main driver of the IT equipment segment .

IT Growth Accelerated by Enterprise Software - Gartner

On October 17, 2018, the analytical company Gartner presented an updated forecast for the global IT market. Experts expect that spending on information technology on a global scale in 2018 will reach $3.7 trillion, an increase of 4.5% compared to 2017. In January, researchers predicted costs at $3.68 trillion and the same 4.5% increase. In 2017, the market added 3.9%.

Although currency volatility and potential trade wars are still impacting IT spending forecasts, a real stir in expectations for each segment is causing the transition from a model of owning IT solutions to gaining access to them as a service, says Gartner Vice President of Research John-David Lovelock. - This means, for example, that more and more companies use cloud services - instead of buying servers, they prefer clouds. In the context of the ongoing digital transformation of the business, migration to the "pay for what you use" model will continue. This enables organizations to withstand the continuous and rapid change that is being emphasized in their digital business.

According to analysts, the main driver of growth in the global IT market in 2018 was enterprise software, sales of which will grow by about 10%. The SaaS model (providing software as a service) stimulates growth in almost all software segments, especially in CRM, as it focuses on improving customer experience. In 2018, spending on cloud services is expected to rise by 22%, while sales of traditional software installed on client computers will increase by only 6%.

Most of the demand in dollar terms in the corporate software market comes from ERP, CRM and supply chain management products, but in 2018 technologies for information security and privacy were of particular interest. 88% of Gartner Chief information officers surveyed have deployed or plan to implement information security solutions or other similar technologies within 12 months.

The second place in terms of growth dynamics after corporate software will be taken by the data center systems segment, the volume of which will rise by 6% in 2018, to $192 billion. The main catalyst for such a rise will be servers, whose sales will increase by 5.7%.^[9]

The annual global cost of IT services is approaching $1 trillion. In 2017, it was about the amount of $931 billion, and in 2018, $987 billion is expected, that is, an increase of 5.9%. Amid a macroeconomic recession and general pressure on company budgets, they are optimizing spending on third-party business services such as consulting. A Gartner study found that for 46% of organizations, IT services and consolidation of service providers are among the three most effective, in their opinion, methods of optimizing costs.

According to experts, in 2018, a total of $689 billion will be spent on the purchase of computers, tablets and mobile phones in the world, which is 3.6% more than a year earlier. In 2018, there was a very strong demand for new computers in the corporate sector due to the transition of the business to the Windows 10 operating system. This cycle should last until 2020, analysts are sure.

PCs, laptops and tablets have reached a new state of balance. In these markets, there is a steady demand from consumers and enterprises. Manufacturers have barely discernible technology differentiation that encourages them to offer PCs as a service (PCaaS) to retain customers for years of recurring revenue and offer new converged services, Lovelock said.

2017

Companies spending $958 billion on digital transformation - IDC

In 2017, companies' spending on digital transformation (CT) on a global scale amounted to $958 billion, according to the research company International Data Corporation (IDC).

According to analysts, in 2018, the global costs of technologies and services that provide digital transformations of business practices, products and organizations will exceed $1.1 trillion.

Most of the investments under consideration are in the manufacturing sector, which also defines ideas for many CT priorities, programs and use cases.

IDC research manager Craig Simpson says strategically prioritized areas of digital transformation with small levels of spending include building cognitive capabilities, services and benefits using data, digital trust and control.

This suggests that many companies are still in the early stages of their digital transformation journey, while focusing on improving internal existing processes and efficiencies. As we move to new stages of development, we expect to see such priorities and costs, migration to digital information to further improve operations and create new products and services, "said Simpson.

According to experts, in order to implement their strategic CT priorities, each company must develop programs that are a long-term plan to fulfill its goals. In 2018, it is expected that CT programs in the field of digital supply channels and automation of logistics operations ($93 billion), smart asset management ($91 billion) and production operations ($40 billion) will receive the most funding. The largest dynamics of expenses in the period until 2021 is predicted in the construction market (an increase of about 38.4% per year).^[10]

Market size of $3.5 trillion - Gartner

In January 2018, from a report by the analytical company Gartner, it became known that global spending on information technology (IT) in 2017 increased by 3.8% and exceeded $3.5 trillion.

The growth of global IT costs in 2017 was observed in all areas, but experts registered the largest increase in the corporate software category, where expenses increased by 8.9%, reaching $355 billion.

Another distinguished segment was the devices, where progress was recorded for the first time in the last two years. In 2017, $667 billion was spent on the purchase of computers, smartphones and other devices, which is 5.7% more compared to 2016. As Gartner believed, the impact of the new iPhone 8 and iPhone X smartphones on the global IT market was minimal last year.

Traditionally, the most extensive IT category in terms of costs turned out to be communication services, which accounted for about $1.39 trillion in 2017. The second most important area was IT services ($933 billion), and the most modest expenses were registered in the data center equipment segment ($178 billion)

In 2017, global IT investment began to recover and we forecast further growth over the next few years. At the same time, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty in the industry due to the possible consequences of Britain's exit from the EU, currency fluctuations and a global recession, "warned Gartner Vice President for Research John-David Lovelock.

Despite the vague prospects in the market, experts believe that enterprises and organizations continue to invest in IT. Among the areas acting as growth drivers, Gartner listed projects related to digital business, blockchain technologies, the Internet of Things, the use of big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence.^[11]

Forrester forecast

In October 2017, analysts at Forrester Research released a forecast for the global information technology (IT) market. He was predicted accelerated growth thanks to software and IT consulting services, although the dynamics in the industry will increase slightly.

Forrester experts expect that in 2017 the costs of companies and government agencies for the purchase of software and hardware, as well as services in the global masshatba, will rise by 3.4%. In 2018, it is expected to rise by 4% and reach a volume of $3 trillion.

Researchers call IT consulting software and services the fastest growing segments, in each of which revenue will increase by 4.3% and more than 6% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Sales of computer equipment will grow by 2.6% in 2017 and by 3% in 2018, while global costs for communication equipment will increase by 3.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Finally, the volume of the IT outsourcing sector will increase by 2.2% in 2017, the same growth rate will be in the telecommunications services market, and in 2018 the indicator will fall lower, Forrester predicts.

Analysts have named four major developments that will take place in the tech industry:

• The improvement of the economy will contribute to the growth of the IT market. In 2017, the situation in the global economy returned to normal after the political and economic shocks of the previous year. This relative stability will allow businesses and the public sector to become more active in terms of IT spending in 2018.

• Sales of cloud services will grow rapidly (at double-digit rates), but this will negatively affect demand for traditional local IT solutions, which, in turn, will restrain the growth of the entire market.

• The development of cloud computing is favorably reflected in some segments. For example, in the field of enterprise software, where sales of cloud subscriptions by October 2017 are more than revenue from the sale of licenses for programs installed on computers, an increase of 10% is predicted. However, in other categories, such as bundling software, system integration services, and IT outsourcing, clouds account for only a fraction of the costs, which are not enough to offset weak growth in traditional segments.

• In the USA, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Sweden and Denmark, sales of IT equipment, software and services will grow by at least 4% in 2017. Russian and Brazilian IT markets are just emerging from a recession, so there is no need to expect high dynamics here, according to a study by Forrester.

• Back office technology will move closer to business technology. Analysts predict that the costs of customer relationship management systems, e-commerce, customer analytics and other solutions that help the company attract and retain customers (Forrester calls this business technology) in 2017 will grow to 28% in the total IT market and will occupy more than half of the costs of new technology projects. However, investment in such products drives technology costs for back-up staff to support these systems. This trend will gain momentum in 2018.

Analysts add that the risks of weak economic growth remain in many countries, so companies still need to exercise some caution in spending their IT and other budgets. At the same time, by the end of 2017, experts are building more optimistic forecasts for the IT industry than at the beginning of the year.^[12]

2015

IDC: IT spending growth in 2015 by 6% excluding currency fluctuations

On February 17, 2016, the analytical company IDC published the results of a study of the global information technology market. The report reported a severe fall in IT spending in Russia and its slow recovery in the future.

According to experts, due to a strong decline in the Russian economy, total IT costs in the country in 2015 decreased by 8.5% compared to a year ago. Absolute value is not given.

Experts say that the Russian IT industry will recover gradually and at a small pace: in 2016, growth is expected to be only 1%. IDC predicts the same rise in all BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

Global sales of IT solutions (hardware, software and services) in 2015 amounted to approximately $2.25 trillion, which excluding currency fluctuations is 6% more than a year earlier. This growth rate is consistent with what has occurred annually since 2010. However, in 2016, analysts predict a decrease in dynamics to 2% (to $2.3 trillion) due to the saturation of demand for smartphones and the economic weakness of developing countries, which IDC also includes Russia.

The study says that despite the volatility of the global economy, 2015 turned out to be relatively stable for the IT industry due to the fact that the smartphone market continued to grow strongly, compensating for the weak demand for personal computers. In 2015, smartphones accounted for half of global IT spending growth.

If you do not take into account mobile phones, the total spending on technology when considering constant exchange rates continues to grow by 3-4% per year since the recovery from the collapse caused by the financial crisis, says IDC analyst Stephen Minton.

In addition to phones, the IT market is helped by spending on cloud infrastructure (in 2015, sales of servers and disk storage rose by 16% and 10%, respectively) and enterprise software (an increase of 7%), especially on software in the field of analytics, information security and collaboration.

However, the high dollar rate undermines the business of American IT companies. In 2015, the volume of the global IT market in dollar terms decreased by 2%, analysts say.^[13]

Gartner: Record drop in ICT spending as dollar rises

On January 18 Gartner , 2016, analysts reported a record drop in the global ICT industry. The reason is the high dollar exchange rate.

According to experts, in 2015, ICT spending on a global scale amounted to $3.52 trillion, which is $216 billion less than a year earlier. The market has never fallen so much in dollar terms for the entire time Gartner has been watching it, the study notes.

At the same time, experts believe that the information technology industry will not be able to return to 2014 volumes until 2019, although in 2016 it is expected to grow by 0.6% to $3.54 trillion.

The rising US dollar led to poor results in 2015, says Gartner Vice President of Research John-David Lovelock. - US international earnings were held back by currency problems. However, in 2016, these difficulties will disappear, and companies will be able to count on 5 percent growth.

According to researchers, in 2015, total sales of computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets and printers fell by 5.8% to $653 billion. Economic instability in Russia, Japan, Brazil and other countries, as well as a shift in the focus of mobile phone users in favor of cheaper devices in emerging markets and weak tablet sales in regions where the opposite situation was expected, prevent this market from returning to growth.

Data centers were the only growing segment of the ICT industry in 2015. Here, equipment costs reached $170 billion, which is 1.8% more than a year earlier, due to the continued high demand for hyperscale server solutions.

In 2015, the enterprise software market fell 1.4% to $310 billion. Global IT spending fell 4.5% to $913 billion, and in 2016 it will return to growth, as analysts predict, due to the widespread adoption of cloud technologies.

It also follows from the Gartner report that a total of $1.47 trillion was spent on telecommunications services in 2015. This market suffers due to the abolition of roaming fees in the EU countries and some regions of North America.^[14]

Gartner forecast revision: -5.5% year-on-year

In early July 2015, the analytical company Gartner lowered its forecast for the global IT market, explaining this by the negative impact of a strong dollar.

According to updated data, in 2015, experts expect global spending on information technology at $3.5 trillion, which is 5.5% less than a year earlier. If foreign exchange fluctuations are not taken into account, the volume of the industry will rise by 2.5%. Previously, experts predicted a 1.3% decrease in IT costs, taking into account the strong dollar and a 3.1% increase excluding this factor.

"We

want to stress that this is by no means a market collapse. This misperception can create large changes in the value of the American dollar against other currencies, says John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner. - However, there are side effects from the rising dollar. Manufacturers are forced to raise prices to restrain costs and profits from sales of their products. Companies and consumers will have to make purchase decisions adjusted for new pricing. "

The largest and at the same time the most strongly falling segment of the IT industry analysts call telecommunications services. Their volume in 2015 will decrease by 7.2% to $1.5 trillion, Gartner predicts.

Sales of computer devices (desktop PCs, laptops, tablets, mobile phones and printers) will fall by 5.5% - up to $654 billion. In the segment of equipment for data centers, a 3.8 percent decline is expected - from $142 billion to $136 billion. This regression is due to the weakening demand for disk storage and network solutions, which will not be able to compensate for the growing server sales.

According to Gartner forecasts, in 2015, global spending on the purchase of enterprise software will reach $310 billion, a decrease of 1.2% compared to 2014. Analysts believe that many software vendors will refrain from raising prices for their products in order to keep customers, albeit to the detriment of income. In the IT services market in 2015, a decline of 4.3% is predicted, to $914 billion.^[15]

Gartner: Because of Russia, the global IT market will not grow, but will fall

On April 9, 2015, research company Gartner released an updated forecast for the global IT industry. Instead of increasing its volume, analysts expect a decline, which is the fault of the Russian market.^[16]

According to analysts, the devaluation of the ruble led to a decrease in computer sales in Russia. A similar situation is observed in Western Europe and Japan. Due to the unfavorable economic climate in these regions, Gartner employees predict a 1.2 percent decrease in the global market for computer devices (desktop and tablet PCs, laptops, smartphones, printers, etc.) in 2015 compared to 2014. Previously, experts predicted a rise of 5.1%.

Instead of increasing the volume of the IT market, analysts expect a decline, which is the fault of the Russian market

Analysts predict a drop of 1.3% throughout the IT industry, to $3.66 trillion in 2015, while the figure of $3.8 trillion was previously called. In 2014, global IT spending was measured at $3.71 trillion.

Despite the significantly reduced forecast, Gartner Vice President of Research John-David Lovelock is confident that there is no catastrophe in this, since the main reason for the fall in the IT market is the high dollar exchange rate. If the currency factor is not taken into account, the cost of information technology on a global scale, as Gartner predicts, will rise by 3.1% in 2015, which is 0.6 percentage points less than the previous forecast.

Expensive American currency undermines demand for disk storage, corporate network equipment and servers. However, sales of these products will still be able to grow in 2015, albeit by a small amount - 0.4%. At the same time, server manufacturers suffer to a greater extent not due to fluctuations in exchange rates, but price pressures that reduce the profitability of the vendors' business.

According to Gartner forecasts, in 2015 the enterprise software market will reach $320 billion, which is 2.3% higher than a year ago. In the IT services segment, expenses are expected at $942 billion against $948 billion in 2014.

In the telecommunications services market, analysts predict a 2.6 percent decline in 2015 - to $1.57 trillion. This decline is due to a decrease in the subscriber audience of operators in developed countries. At the same time, the increase in sales of devices that increase mobile data traffic, as well as the use of several SIM cards by one subscriber, were not as high as previously expected, experts say.

Gartner: Dear dollar will slow growth rate

In early 2015, the research company Gartner revised downward the forecast for the annual volume of the global IT industry. Analysts linked their decision to the growth of the dollar in the global foreign exchange market.^[17]

Gartner predicts that by the end of 2015, a total of $3.8 trillion will be spent on information technology around the world, which is 2.4% more on an annualized basis. Previously, experts expected IT spending to rise by 3.9%, but lowered their estimate due to the strengthening of the dollar against world currencies.

As of January 5, 2015, the euro fell against the US currency to a low of 2006. The dollar is rising in price to other currencies, including the yen and the ruble.

The expensive dollar will slow down the growth of the global IT market

According to John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner, the lowered forecast for the IT market is not as critical as it might seem at first glance, since it reflects only the situation with exchange rate fluctuations. Excluding them, global IT costs in 2015 will increase by 3.7%, which is only 0.1 percentage points less than the previously expected indicator, Lovelock noted.

According to experts, in 2015, global sales of computer devices (desktop and tablet PCs, laptops, phones, printers, etc.) will rise by 5.1% to $732 billion. Previously, Gartner employees expected a 6.4 percent rise in this segment of the IT industry.

The study also says that the cost of data centers in 2015 will rise by 1.8% and reach $143 billion. Here, experts raised the forecast for the cost of enterprise-grade communications solutions and network equipment, but lowered the estimate for servers and external disk storage.

The global enterprise software market is predicted to increase by 5.5% to $335 billion in 2015. It also expects further price erosion and consolidation of vendors, caused by increased competition among cloud service providers and traditional software installed on computers.

Gartner revised the growth in spending on IT services from 4.1% to 2.5% (the projected volume is $981 billion). The largest segment of the IT industry remains telecommunications services: here costs in 2015, according to analysts, will increase by 0.7% compared to last year, amounting to $1.6 trillion.

2014

Gartner: IT Services Enterprise Market Growth by 1.2%

On September 23, 2015, the analytical company Gartner published the results of an IT market study in various vertical industries. In 2014, there was a slight increase, but in 2015, as experts say, a recession cannot be avoided.

In 2014, IT costs in vertical markets globally amounted to almost $2.8 trillion, which is 1.2% more than in the previous year. The largest expenses - $490 billion - fell on companies engaged in production and work with natural resources. For such enterprises, IT budgets increased by 1%. About the same amount was spent by financial organizations and companies specializing in security.

According to analysts, by 2019, banks in developed countries will double their IT budgets in order to develop digital business and other technology initiatives aimed at increasing product sales, improving the quality of customer service and reducing operating costs.

The top three consumers of information technology include government agencies whose IT spending in 2014 was measured at $447.61 billion, down 1.2% from a year ago. This vertical market was the only one falling.

The cost item under consideration by Gartner grew the most in healthcare - by 2.7% to $107.9 billion. The United States accounts for about 40% of medical IT projects that are increasingly interested in ICT companies around the world.

Commenting on the situation with IT in vertical industries in 2015, Anurag Gupta noted the "double blow" inflicted on the market in the form of a high dollar exchange rate (especially against the euro, yen and ruble) and a slowdown in the growth dynamics of developing countries, including Brazil, China and Russia. Many tech companies reporting in American currency are showing a financial downturn, Gupta said. In 2015, IT spending in vertical markets will fall by 3.5%, Gartner predicts.^[18]

IDC 2014 forecast reduced from + 4.6% to + 4.1%

IDC published a report in May 2014 that estimated that the global IT market would grow 4.1% in 2014, slightly lower than previously expected at 4.6% and down 0.1% from 2013. Among the factors hindering the development of the market, IDC specialists highlight a significant reduction in demand for mobile devices, an unstable economic situation in a number of developing countries, as well as the transition of cloud technologies to enterprises.

The IT market in developing countries has been showing a volatile trend since the beginning of 2014. The crisis in Ukraine especially aggravated the situation. Due to the difficult political situation in the country, in Russia IT costs will be reduced by almost 1%, and consumption was reduced by the same figure in 2013. Note that the slowdown in the development of the Russian IT market negatively affects other European countries .

In developed countries, the situation is improving markedly. Thus, in Western Europe, a 2% increase in IT sector costs is predicted. Analysts attribute this growth to the stabilization of the economy. Also in Europe, for the first time in several years, sales of servers and storage systems should grow, which in turn will "fuel" the demand for IT services, which may increase by more than 2%. A similar situation is developing in Canada today . IT spending in the country has increased by 5% since the beginning of the year. In Japan, the situation is somewhat worse: last year the IT market grew by 3.4%, but in 2014 it is expected to slow down dynamics and even decline by 1%.

The situation in the IT sector in China is also changing in 2014. If earlier the Celestial Empire was the driver of the global IT market, then this year it did not get this role. In 2014, China is expected to slow growth to below 7%. However, if the situation changes for the better, then IT spending in the country may grow by 10%.

Analysts note that today another weak point in the IT market is a significant slowdown in the growth of sales of mobile devices: smartphones and tablets. On the one hand, this is due to lower prices, as well as strong market saturation.

Traditionally, the mobile segment has made a significant contribution to the growth of the IT market. Excluding this sector, IT spending will grow by 2.9-3.1% in 2014. These figures include to a greater extent the costs of corporate products: IT services and infrastructure solutions. IDC analysts note that enterprises have accumulated demand related to the need to update hardware: servers, storage systems and network equipment.

Another factor that is "shaking" the IT market is the massive transition to cloud technologies. According to experts, by the end of 2014, clouds will account for about 10% of all costs that enterprises and companies will spend on software, and 15% of costs for servers and storage systems. Such changes in the market will primarily affect vendors who build their business according to the classic IT budget scheme, but short-term growth prospects will open up for a number of companies.

The transition to cloud technologies today, although it is widespread, a number of companies are in no hurry to change the classic scheme of building an IT infrastructure. This is often associated with security, storage reliability, and regulatory demands and requirements. However, even such enterprises create internal infrastructure built on private and hybrid clouds. All these processes, according to IDC analysts, will become drivers of the growth of the IT market in the next few years.

2013

IDC 2014 forecast + 5% or more

According to IDC's November 2013^[19], global IT spending will finally go up in 2014 after hitting its worst performance since the recent financial crisis in 2013. At the end of 2013, IDC predicts that global technology spending will grow by 4% to $2.04 trillion (growth in 2012 was 5%) due to declines in key markets such as China and Russia.

In 2014, IDC expects the recovery of the market in China, as well as the strengthening of the IT market in the United States and Europe, will give the industry an impetus to growth, which will exceed 5%, so that global IT spending next year over 2013 may amount to $2.14 trillion.

Global IT spending growth (in constant currency)

Growth of IT expenses by region 2013/2014 (in constant currency)

In fact, more than half of the growth of the IT industry in 2013 was provided by the continued excitement in the market smartphones and tablets. Enterprise IT spending in many regions remained a weak area due to falling demand for PCs servers and storage.

Nevertheless, the good results shown by the computer market in the third quarter of 2013 allow IDC to hope that we will have another 12-18 month hardware update cycle. Including thanks to it, spending on servers, storage systems and corporate networks in 2014 will increase by 4% compared to 1% in 2013.

Forrester 2013 IT cost forecast + 4.5% or $2.06 trillion

According to the next Forrester Research forecast from July 2013, global spending on information technology in 2013 will amount to $2.06 trillion, including costs for software, equipment and IT services from the corporate sector and government organizations. Among the countries of the world, the most funds for IT will be spent in the United States. Among the categories of expenses, the largest in 2013 will be, surprisingly, applications.

Interestingly, Forrester estimates are much less than Gartner estimates released in the first half of 2013: according to the latest company, global IT spending in 2013 will amount to $3.7 trillion.

Moreover, Forrester itself predicted in January 2013 a higher rate of growth in IT costs: 5.4% in constant currency and 3.3% in dollar terms. Now we are talking about an increase of 2.3% in dollars and 4.5% in constant currency, while Gartner's figures suggest an increase of 2% in dollars and 3.5% in constant currency.

Forrester Research, 2013

Software, according to Forrester forecasts, will become the main expenditure item in IT budgets in 2013, a total of $542 billion will be spent on it. In 2013, organizations' investment in software will grow by 3.3%, and in 2014 - by 6.2%.

In the hardware segment, tablets and specifically Apple continue to lead in terms of costs by pace. Although PC in monetary terms remains the largest item of expenses among all categories of hardware ($134.2 million in 2013), growth here is only 3%. While the increase in tablet costs will be 36% - up to $21 billion, of which $14 billion will come from Apple products. In 2014, only $1 billion more will be spent on PCs - $135 billion.

As for other large market segments, $411 billion will be spent in 2013 on IT outsourcing, $322 billion on communication equipment, $389 billion on IT consulting and system integration services.

As mentioned above, among the countries of the world, the United States will spend the most in 2013 on IT: $819 billion, and in 2014 - already $875 billion, which is comparable to the costs of Western Europe and Asia combined. The growth rate of US spending in 2013 is 5.9%, in the EMEA region - 6.9%, the highest growth rate by 2014 will be achieved in Latin America - 10.7%. Separately, Europe's IT spending in 2013 will amount to $487 billion.

IDC 2013 IT Spending Forecast + 4.9 %

According to a IDC May 2013 study by^[20]global IT spending was slightly lower than projected in the second half of 2012 and the first quarter^[20] 2013. Systemic problems in the economy, USA the European debt crisis and the decline GDP China have created a negative pattern that has influenced most segments of the IT market.

According to the updated forecast, the growth of IT spending in the world in 2013 will be 4.9% in constant currency. Previously, growth was predicted at 5.6%, while at the end of 2012 it amounted to 5.5%. In monetary terms, global IT spending in 2013 will amount to $2.06 trillion, and including telecom services (that is, in the ICT sector as a whole) - will grow by 4.5% to $3.7 trillion.

The strong position of the US dollar can have a positive impact specifically on US IT vendors. In 2012, IT expenses expressed in US dollars increased by only 2.9%, which is very small compared to 2011 (9.5%). Based on exchange rate differences in the first quarter of 2013, analysts at the end of the year predict an increase in IT spending at 4.2% in dollar terms.

The reduction in the forecast of IT expenses from IDC is largely due to the constantly decreasing supply of PCs, here the decline has not stopped since 2012. In constant currency in 2013, experts predict, PC costs will decrease by 3%. On the contrary, mobile computers remain the main driver of industry growth. Excluding them from the overall offset, you can see that the growth of IT spending in 2012 will be equal to only 2.8%, and in 2013 - 2.6%. Global spending on smartphones in 2013 will grow by 17%, on tablets - by 32%.

Similarly, the growth of cloud services cannibalizes growth in the segment of commercial software and IT services. In May 2013, IDC predicts, according to its results, an increase in software costs at the level of 5.6% in constant currency and at the level of 3.8% in the IT services segment. As for the hardware market, costs for both servers and storage systems will decrease (the 2011-2012 update cycle is completely over). Revenue in the equipment segment in 2013 will increase by 2.4% compared to 6.1% in 2012. The most stable growth in the segment of corporate networks will be 6.8% in 2013.

Recall that in December 2012, IDC predicted^[21]2013 global IT spending will reach $2.1 trillion, which is 5.7% more than in 2012. 90% of the growth in the global IT market will be in mobile, social, cloud and big data technologies. Another powerful growth driver is the further intellectualization of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, readers), this market segment will grow by 20% in 2013, generating 57% of the growth of the entire industry.

As for regional differences, IT spending in emerging markets will grow by 8.8% in 2013 to more than $730 billion, which is 34% of global spending on information technology, but it will account for half of global spending growth.

BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will dominate in terms of high technology costs, with China accounting for 25% of the above. Interestingly, due to this rapid growth, Asian vendors will seriously strengthen their position in global ratings, for example, this is already happening with the smartphone manufacturer ZTE, which managed to enter the top three worldwide.

Gartner 2013 ICT spending forecast: $3.8 trillion

Global ICT spending was projected by Gartner^[22] to reach $3.8 trillion in 2013, an increase of 4.1% compared to 2012. Exchange rate differences will not have too much impact on growth indicators, in particular, growth in constant currency is projected at 4% for the same period.

Richard Gordon, vice president of Gartner, said that although the United States is experiencing permanent financial difficulties, and what is happening in Cyprus in its effect is comparable to shock, these negative factors will only have a short-term effect on IT spending in the world and will not cause the suspension of strategic projects and initiatives.

Global spending on devices (including PCs, tablets, mobile phones and printers) is projected to reach $718 billion in 2013, up 7.9% from 2012.

Global ICT spending, $ billion

	Expenses 2012	Growth 2012	Expenses 2013	Growth 2013	Expenses 2014	Growth 2014
Devices	665	9%	718	7,9%	758	5,7%
Data centers	141	1,9%	146	3,7%	152	4%
Enterprise Software	279	3,5%	297	6,4%	316	6,7%
IT services	878	1,5%	918	4,5%	963	4,9%
Telecom services	1655	-0,4%	1688	2%	1728	2,4%
In total	3618	2,1%	3766	4,1%	3917	4%

Gartner, March 2013

Analysts note the following trend: despite the fact that the volume of IT consumption as a whole is growing, its structure is changing dramatically, so there will be many "winners and losers" among vendors in the next 3-5 years. In particular, there is a significant shift in user demand from personal computers to mobile, from servers to storage systems, from licensed software to cloud, and the transfer of voice and other data moves from fixed broadband networks to mobile ones.

In 2013, spending on systems for data centers will grow by 3.7%, which is 0.7% lower than Gartner's previous forecast, the forecast is lowered due to problems in the region's market. EMEA The expenses of the corporate sector in software 2013 will amount to $297 billion, which is 6.4% higher than in 2012.

Gartner 2013 ICT spending forecast: $3.7 trillion

Global ICT spending, according to Gartner ^[23] Gartner^[23] of January 2013, will reach $3.7 trillion 2013 year, which is 4.2% more than in 2012 ($3.6 trillion). Thus, compared to the forecast for 2013 from the third quarter of 2012 in dollar terms, the forecast was increased by 0.4%.

According to Gartner analysts, most of the increase in IT spending in percentage terms is due to the exchange rate differences between the dollar and other foreign currencies. Denominated in a constant currency (dollar), IT spending will increase by 3.9% in 2013.

As for individual segments, global spending on devices (including PCs, tablets, mobile phones and printers) is projected to reach $666 billion in 2013, up 6.3% from 2012. In the third quarter of 2012, Gartner, however, gave this sector a more positive outlook for 2013: an increase of 7.9% to $706 billion.

The long-term forecast for the device market was also lowered as of January 2013: from 2012 to 2016 it will be about 4.5% annually in dollar terms (previously given an indicator of 6.4%) and about 5.1% annually in constant currency (previously - 7.4%).

Global IT spending forecast 2012-2014, $ billion

	Expenses 2012	Growth 2012	Expenses 2013	Growth 2013	Expenses 2014	Growth 2014
Devices	627	2,9%	666	6,3%	694	4,2%
Data centers	141	2,3%	147	4,5%	154	4,2%
Enterprise Software	278	3,3%	296	6,4%	316	6,8%
IT services	881	1,8%	927	5,2%	974	5,1%
Telecom services	1661	-0,1%	1701	2,4%	1742	2,4%
In total	3588	1,2%	3737	4,2%	3881	3,8%

Source: Gartner, January 2013

Corporate software spending, according to the updated data, will grow in 2013 compared to 2012 by 6.4% to $296 billion. The key drivers will be segments such as security, storage management software and CRM, however, by 2014 the focus on the market will shift in favor of big data and information management technologies such as enterprise content management, data integration tools and the like.

The global telecom services market in terms of IT costs will remain the largest. Gartner predicts that mobile spending will actively increase here: their share in the total telecom costs will change from 22% in 2012 to 33% in 2016.

Gartner's IT spending forecast for 2013: + 2.5% to $2.6 trillion

According to Gartner's forecasts, the global IT spending of enterprises will reach $2.679 trillion in 2013, which is 2.5% more than the forecast spending in 2012 - $2.603 trillion^[24]. The maximum growth in IT costs until 2016 will be demonstrated by financial, communications, media and service companies, as well as manufacturing enterprises.

In general, Gartner analysts are optimistic about 2013, since the United States and Europe managed to avoid any global economic shocks. Moreover, since most enterprises and organizations have already reduced IT costs in recent years, they have no "reserve" to further cut costs, since they need to maintain certain budgets to maintain operations.

Among the vertical markets in terms of IT spending, according to Gartner, the production and natural resources sector will lead - they will account for $478 billion in 2013, which is 2.3% more than in 2012 ($467 billion). A significant part of these funds will be spent on automation and optimization of the sales process, as well as cloud, social, mobile technologies and big data.

banks The security sector will also demonstrate a significant increase in IT spending: in 2013, information technology costs in these industries will amount to $460 billion, which is 3.5% more than in 2012 ($445 billion). These industries invest very intensively in IT, spending three times more on technology in% of their own revenue than enterprises in any other industry. Here, the area of ​ ​ investment application is automation of loans, payments, trading operations and risk management.

Against the background of the remaining significant growth in IT costs is also expected in the industries transport and insurance - by more than 4%. IT spending in the transport sector reached $126 billion in 2013, compared to $121 billion in 2012. In the insurance industry, for a comparable period of time, they will increase from $179 billion to $187 billion.

In 2012, public sector spending on IT will decrease by 2%, and this decrease will continue in 2013 - in these years they will amount to $447 billion and $445 billion, respectively.

2012

IDC: IT spending to rise 6% to $2.1 trillion in 2012

In the third quarter of 2012, IDC predicted that IT spending would grow in 2012 by 6% in constant currency to $2.1 trillion, which is 1% less than the growth of the same indicator for 2011 (then it was 7%), according to IDC^[25]Major market, software storage, corporate networking, and mobile advances are being dampened by the simultaneous decline in the PC, server, peripheral, and telecommunications markets.

The fairly confident position of the US dollar in the first half of 2012 means that global IT spending will grow by 4% in US dollars in 2012, although in 2011 it increased by 10.5% in dollar terms. Including telecom services, total global ICT spending will grow by 5% in 2012 to $3.6 trillion (by 2.5% in dollar terms).

In one of the key global IT markets, in the United States, IT spending in 2012 will increase by 5.9%, which is lower than in 2011 (then the growth was 8.5%). Industry analysts still hope that the release of Windows 8 in the fourth quarter of 2012 will help restore the local PC market next year.

Although in Western Europe the pace of economic development has slowed significantly, which negatively affects IT costs, in Northern Europe the supply of software and mobile devices has increased quite seriously. However, overall IT spending in this region will only increase by 1% in constant currency in 2012 and decrease by 4.5% in dollar terms.

Japan In spending on IT in constant currency will grow by only 2% in 2012, the forecast for 2013 for this country is restrained. In emerging markets, the growth rate of IT spending will be more significant. For example, China in 2012 it will be 14% in constant currency (in 2011 - 25%), in - India 14%, in - Brazil 14%, in - 11 Russia %, in - 8%. REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

Gartner: ICT spending in 2012 will be $3.6 trillion (+ 3 %)

Global ICT spending reached $3.6 trillion in 2012, up 3% from $3.5 trillion in 2011. This forecast is given by Gartner as of July 2012. A quarter earlier, Gartner had forecast only a 2.5% increase in global IT spending.

Gartner's forecast is based on more than 75% of the Global 500's key technology solutions. According to Richard Gordon, vice president of research at Gartner, despite the presence of adverse economic challenges such as the Eurozone crisis, the weak pace of market recovery in the United States, the slowdown in China, at the moment the short-term forecast seems more or less stable.

However, some segments of the IT market will grow much faster than others. For example, Garter predicts that spending by the corporate sector on public cloud services will grow from $91 billion worldwide in 2011 to $109 billion in 2012. By 2016, this segment will amount to $207 billion, that is, it will actually double in 5 years.

Global spending on IT services will increase to $864 billion in 2012, up 2.3% from 2011. Demand for consulting services is expected to remain strong. Telecom services will remain the largest market segments - in 2012 it will grow by 1.4% to $1,686 billion.

Global IT spending forecast, million dollars

Gartner, July 2012

Spending on computer equipment in 2012, according to Gartner, will increase by 3.4% to $420 billion, and on telecommunications equipment - by 10.8% to $377 billion. Corporate software spending will increase by 4.3% to $281 billion.

Gartner: Corporate software spending reached $120.4 billion in 2012 (+ 4.5 %)

Global spending on enterprise software applications reached $120.4 billion in 2012, up 4.5% from $115.2 billion in 2011, according to Gartner. Compared to the previous forecast, it was lowered by 0.5% as of June 2012.

Tom Eid, vice president of Gartner, said the global market is still under the influence of a range of political conflicts and depressing economic news. So in 2012, enterprises' IT spending will be concentrated around mainly specialized industry applications, updating existing systems, business-critical software, integration and protection of systems and infrastructure. In addition, a further increase in the use of SaaS as an alternative to old solutions and the introduction of new ones will play a big role.

The key (in terms of volume and growth rates) segments of the corporate market software in 2012 will be the segments of business analytics (), BI communications and collaboration, automation of customer relations (), CRM systems for creating digital content, ERP systems, office packages and personal work tools, project management and portfolio, as well as the segment of the management solution (). supply chains SCM

In terms of the volume of the largest segments, the ERP segment will remain, it will reach $24.9 billion in 2012, office applications will be in second place - $16.5 billion, then BI - $13 billion and CRM - also $13 billion.

Gartner analysts predict that alternative models for purchasing software will continue to actively develop in 2012. In this regard, not only SaaS will be in great demand, but also virtualization, as well as IT asset management. As a result, the use of SaaS and cloud services will grow from 11% in 2010 to 16% in 2015 in total consumption in the enterprise application market.

JP Morgan 2012 forecast + 2.2 %

JP Morgan revised its forecast for global IT spending for 2012, saying that the slowdown in global production rates, as well as macroeconomic instability in Europe, negatively affect the ability of companies to invest in information technology. If earlier analysts predicted an increase in IT spending in the world in 2012 by 3.8%, now they are limited to 2.2%.

Additionally, JP Morgan is "concerned that China could be a source of growing uncertainty for most technology segments," the company said in a research note distributed to clients.

JP Morgan analysts have lowered their global cost forecast for almost all segments of the equipment market, with the exception of tablets. The increase in spending on software solutions will, according to new estimates, be 2.5% in 2012 (previously called the figure 5.5%).

The note says that about 35-40% of growth in the software segment is now at serious risk due to lower IT costs for European companies, US government organizations and financial services companies.

The forecast has also been lowered for the IT services segment: it is expected that in 2012 it will increase by 1.3%, and not by 3.1%, according to the previous forecast.

Survey of Directors and Top Managers - June 2012

In April 2012, Gartner published the results of a survey of directors and top managers. Across the board, it turns out that the market is waiting for a shock, at least 85% of respondents said about the upcoming impact of the economic downturn on the activities of their companies. Particular concern is expressed by the heads of companies located in Europe and Africa, to a lesser extent - in the Asia-Pacific region and North America. Nevertheless, all participants, without exception, give a negative forecast.

According to Mark Raskino, vice president of Gartner, the No. 1 priority for company executives is to maintain the trend of business growth. However, the second most important task, starting in 2009, is to find ways to reduce costs.

Despite growing concern about the economic situation, two-thirds of respondents intend to increase IT spending in 2012. Jorge Lopez, vice president and lead analyst at Gartner, considers the desire of customers to invest in technology a sign of a recovery in the market. "Current trends such as mobile technology and cloud computing are gradually coming under scrutiny from executives," he noted. Traditionally, CRM systems play the role of the main marketing tool for customer retention.

In the findings of the study, Gartner analysts emphasize that in order to achieve strategic goals, investing in IT must be accompanied by a modernization of the company management system. Many leaders with experience in the 1990s and 2000s managed to gain negative experience when the costs of equipment and technology did not bring the expected effect. Along with the implementation of high-tech IT projects, it is necessary to carry out systematic changes in policies, processes, organizational structure, roles and corporate culture.

Gartner: ICT spending reached $3.7 trillion in 2012

According to the Gartner forecast (April 2012), the total volume of IT budgets in 2012 will reach $3.7 trillion - this is 2.5% more than in 2011, but less than the previously predicted growth of 3.7%. Gartner analysts attribute the slowdown not to the real reduction in IT costs, but to the strengthening of the dollar against some world currencies. Costs exclusively in dollars in 2012 should increase by 5.2% compared to the previous forecast of 4.6%.

Gartner's $ billion IT budget allocation forecast (April 2012)

	Costs 2011	Growth 2011,%	Costs 2012	Growth 2012,%
Аппаратное обеспечение	404	7,7	421	4,3
Корпоративное SOFTWARE	267	9.2	280	5.0
ИТ-сервисы	845	6,5	856	1,3
Телекоммуникационное оборудование	442	7,2	472	6,9
Телекоммуникационные сервисы	1704	6,3	1721	1,0
Вся ИКТ-отрасль	3661	6,8	3751	2,5

Richard Gordon, vice president of research at Gartner, cited a number of factors that make us cautious about the prospects for a global economic recovery. First of all, this is the debt crisis of a number of European countries, the potential for the collapse of the bubble in the real estate market in China, the consequences of which may be disastrous for the global economy, and the rise in oil prices. At the same time, the preliminary estimates made by Gartner inspire some optimism.

Where you should definitely not count on large IT budgets in 2012-2013 is in the public sector. The main reason is the introduction of severe restrictions on many items of spending in the eurozone due to the debt crisis. In the US market, a similar state of affairs will continue at least until 2013.

In the SMB segment, which accounts for about a quarter of the global IT budget, IT costs will reach $874 billion in 2012 and grow to $1 trillion by 2016. About once every five years, IT costs in the mid-sized business segment are higher than in the rest. The reason for this is the cyclical updating of the enterprise software fleet.

The highest growth indicators will demonstrate the global telecommunications equipment market, the cost of which in 2012 is expected to amount to $472 billion - this is 6.9% more than last year. Among the prerequisites for continuing the trend of growing demand for mobile devices and corporate network equipment, primarily wireless and traditional Ethernet switches, devices for ensuring network security, increasing performance and scalability.

Gartner Forecast for Developing Countries 2012

Emerging markets will generate $1.22 trillion in IT spending in 2012, about 31% of global IT costs. This is stated in another study by Gartner.

The research company includes the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (excluding the markets of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Gon Kong and Taiwan), as well as Latin America, the Middle East and Africa (except Israel), as well as Central and Eastern Europe. They manage to maintain positive dynamics even despite economic instability in general around the world.

According to Louis Anavitarte, vice president of Gartner, more than half of the increase in IT spending among developing countries in 2012 will fall on BRIMK (Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China). In general, these five countries will account for 17% of IT spending in the world in 2012, which corresponds to $658 billion.

As for regional specifics, Latin America will generate about $326 billion in IT spending in 2012, of which 48.4% will be in the corporate sector. Accordingly, the costs of the corporate market will amount to $157.7 billion, and the user - $168 billion.

IT spending in the Middle East and Africa, as Gartner expects, will reach $244 billion in 2012, of which 35% will be in three countries - Saudi Arabia, Turkey and South Africa. 38% of the region's IT expenses will be the expenses of the business segment, which is about $93 billion.

Central and Eastern Europe is expected to generate about $158 billion in IT spending in 2012, of which 48.2% will be in the corporate sector, this is $76 billion. IT costs in the mass market will amount to $81.7 billion. At the same time, the share of Russia in the IT expenses of the region will be 45%, in second place Poland - 11.8%, then the Czech Republic - 7.7% and Hungary - 3.7%.

IT spending among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region in 2012 could reach up to $496 billion, of which 42% will be in the business sector, while the user segment will spend 58% or $288 billion on IT.

2012 PAC Forecast

PAC analysts indicate that global IT spending is recovering, however, this statement is not true for all sectors and countries. For example, although the segments of software and IT services recovered in almost all markets in 2011, in terms of specific countries there is a big difference in their development, and in 2012 a number of last year's challenges will remain for the IT industry, according to a PAC study.

IT Market Growth Forecast by Region 2009-2013

Source: PAC, 2012

Overall, 2012 will remain a difficult year for the IT industry, PAC experts say. According to the company, the growth of the IT market in the EMEA region in 2011 compared to 2010 amounted to about 4%. In the future, it will accelerate, reaching more than 6% by the end of 2012, and about 7% by the end of 2013.

Global IT Market Growth Forecast by Segment 2009-2013

Source: PAC, 2012

The growth rate of the software segment from 2009 to 2013 will exceed the growth rate of the IT services segment. In 2011/2012, the ratio of these indicators will be 4.2% to 3.4%, and in 2012/2013 - 5% to 4.5%.

The climate in the IT market is highly dependent on the economic situation in the region. For example, in a number of countries experiencing economic difficulties, such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, business and organizations are more focused on short-term reductions in IT spending. While in other regions, such as Australia, the United States and BRIC countries, they are more focused on increasing revenue and efficiency, which often leads to the creation of new IT concepts.

The financial industry (and most of all investment banking) and public sector agencies remain under severe pressure from debt obligations and deficits. For comparison, the situation in the production industry remains comparably positive. But even in the same industry, IT spending is primarily influenced by the economic situation in the country. In Germany, for example, carmakers are far more optimistic than their counterparts in France, whereas decisions to shut down nuclear power plants in Germany make German nuclear workers more depressed than French ones.

However, even if companies are aimed at developing innovative solutions and models, this does not prevent them from pursuing goals to reduce operating budgets. They are looking to get "more for the same money" from their IT providers, the PAC study said.

However, most organizations are still in the process of consolidating their IT infrastructure and applications. "Few of them already see the end of the long process of building a flexible and robust IT base," said Christophe Châlons, lead analyst at PAC.

Industrialization, service center separation and offshore offerings are still at the peak of relevance, both on the user side and on the supplier side, PAC analysts said. At the same time, the number of IT product suppliers continues to decline, as customers prefer to work with a limited range of selected suppliers in all regions of presence. There is also a strong demand for outsourcing services.

In the first place among companies are such IT projects that they consider 100% necessary, as well as reducing costs in the short term or providing fast ROI. Only companies with a large supply of cash can devote themselves to the deep transformation of business processes due to new technologies at the time of the crisis. The main difference from the 2008-2009 crisis is that there are still quite a few such companies.

The main innovative areas in 2012, according to PAC, will be mobile technologies and tablets; Analytics in terms of real-time analysis and processing of large amounts of data, visualization of data; new concepts and technologies for integrating and stimulating innovative projects.

Also, companies will continue to invest in M2M, collaboration tools, CRM, risk management and other solutions. Taking into account the industry specifics, "hot" areas will be PLM integration (both with ERP and with MES), integration after mergers, electronic medicine and body medicine, smart grid.

2011

IDC: Global IT spending rose 5% in constant currency in 2011

Global IT spending rose 5% in constant currency in 2011, despite economic challenges in Western Europe and a number of other regions, according to a study by IDC Worldwide Black Book. According to the company's analysts, in 2012, in constant currency, global IT spending may grow by 5%. At the same time, hardware and software segments - by 6% in constant currency, and costs for IT services - by 4%.

The most stable demand in 2011 was observed in the segment of smartphones (+ 46%), software (+ 6%) and disk storage systems (+ 6%). The business continued to invest in infrastructure upgrades, as well as new apps and mobile devices, including tablets. These positive trends will continue in 2012, when industrial spending on network equipment will also increase. Moreover, by the end of 2012, the global PC market will also restore positive dynamics, according to IDC.

Stephen Minton, IDC Vice President, also points to a number of risks that will affect the development of the global IT market in 2012. First of all, these are macroeconomic problems in Europe, where IT spending remains at a low level. In a negative scenario, this crisis can worsen and create a wave effect on other regions. But, according to the expert, positive indicators of the state of the markets of the United States and developing countries do not yet give a reason to talk about a slowdown.

The IT market of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) remains the fastest growing, which has shown double-digit growth for several years. IT spending in Brazil, Russia, India and China will increase by 9%, 11%, 16% and 15%, respectively, in 2012.

Europe's economic problems have already had a major impact on IT spending in the region. Buying activity has already declined in segments such as PCs, servers, storage, peripherals, and networking. The path to the recovery of the European IT market will be long: growth in 2012 will be no more than 1%, and in 2013 - 3%.

In the United States, IT spending increased by 7% in 2011, and in 2012 IT spending is expected to grow steadily, by approximately 5%, primarily due to mobile devices, software and network equipment. Japan will return to a positive growth rate in the IT market after the downgrade caused by the 2011 earthquake and the serious economic problems that followed.

Gartner: Global IT spending by enterprises in 2012 will increase by 3.9%

According to the company's new forecast Gartner(October 2011), the global IT spending of enterprises in 2012 should be $2.7 trillion^[26].

This is 3.9% higher than the forecast for 2011 in the amount of $2.6 trillion, but lower than the growth in 2011, which should be 5.9%. According to Gartner analysts, in 2011 alone, 350 companies from around the world will invest on average more than $1 billion in IT.

In the fourth quarter of 2011, Gartner conducted a worldwide survey of 2,335 IT managers (2012 CIO Agenda) representing IT buffets of their enterprises with a total volume of more than $321 billion in 37 industries in 45 countries.

Top 10 business priorities	Rating	Top 10 business priorities	Rating
Intensifying Enterprise Growth	1	Analysis and Business Analysis	1
Attract and retain new customers	2	Mobile technologies	2
Reducing Enterprise Costs	3	Cloud Computing (SaaS, IaaS, PaaS)	3
Creating New Products and Services (Innovation)	4	Collaboration Technologies (Document Management)	4
Delivering operational results	5	Virtualization	5
Improved efficiency	6	Modernization	6
Improved profitability (margin)	7	IT management	7
Manpower recruitment and retention	8	CRM	8
Improving Marketing and Sales Efficiency	9	ERP Applications	9
Access to new markets and new territories	10	Safety	10

Source: Gartner (January 2012)

According to its results, 61% of enterprises surveyed replied that over the next three years they will increase the use of mobile technologies.

46% of IT managers reported that their IT budget for 2011-2012 would be in line with actual spending. This year, the average enterprise will go for a slight increase in the IT budget - from 2% to 3%.

According to the 2012 global average, IT budgets are not expected to grow for most businesses. The largest IT investments will be made in Latin America (growth of IT budgets to 12.7%) and the Asia-Pacific region (growth of 3.4%).

While the weakest ones will be noted at the largest enterprises in North America (a decrease of 0.6%) and Europe (a decrease of 0.7%). Larger enterprises, with IT budgets of more than $500 million, will continue to reduce IT costs, reducing them to very modest growth.

Nevertheless, analysts note that the role of high technology in the life of enterprises is increasing. The vice president Gartner Mark McDonald (Mark McDonald) noted that this, however, does not mean an increase in the importance of IT departments.

In his opinion, against the background of ongoing economic uncertainty and tough state economic policy, effective business strategies require a combination of investment growth and effective action. "Modern economic conditions may tempt Chief information officers to return to cost-cutting mode, but business leaders expect growth from technology, including information," McDonald stressed.

Chief information officer are increasingly looking at analytics/business analysis technologies, mobile solutions, clouds, and social media in combination, rather than individually, for maximum effect. Changing customers' consumer experience requires businesses to change their external interactions with them.

In 2012, BI will remain one of the main areas of IT investment. At the same time, Chief information officer combine analytics with other technologies to create new business opportunities. For example: analytics technologies plus supply chains - for managing processes in the enterprise and improving them, analytics plus mobile technologies - for field actions and sales, analytics plus social networks - for attracting customers.

IT development countries: Sweden and Singapore named leaders

The Global Information Technology Report 2010-2011 Full text

On April 12, 2011, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published a rating of countries for development information technology in 2010-2011 Sweden. Singapore continues to be the leaders. The third place was taken, Finland close the top five and. Switzerland USA

The top ten leaders in the ranking include almost all Scandinavian countries, including Denmark (7) and Norway (9), but with the exception of Iceland (16th place). The economies of the Asian Tigers follow Singapore and continue to grow in the ranking: Taiwan and Korea improve their positions by 5 places each (to 6 and 10, respectively), Hong Kong is close to the leaders (12). China, after several consecutive years of rapid development, ranked 36th in the ranking.

China is developing ICT more successfully than all other BRIC countries, and is ahead of India (48), Brazil (56) and Russia (77), the WEF report notes.

Russia, according to the report, rose in the ranking by 3 positions. The country's strengths include a favorable environment for the development of ICT infrastructure (42nd place), as well as a fairly high level of readiness of the population to use ICT (59th place) and direct use of ICT by the population (55th place).

At the same time, a number of problems impede the spread of ICT: including an undeveloped market (118 places), legislative regulation (111 places), low levels of readiness for the use of ICT and direct use of ICT by business and the public sector. Two years ago, President Dmitry Medvedev was surprised at Russia's low positions in world IT ratings.

The ICT Development Index is based on a combination of publicly available statistics and the results of a survey of company executives. In total, 138 countries are studied in the WEF ranking.

2010

IDC: In 2010, a record increase in IT costs was recorded to $1.5 trillion (+ 8 %)

Global spending on information technology (computers, servers, software, services, etc.) excluding currency fluctuations in 2010 increased by 8% compared to 2009 to more than $1.5 trillion, IDC reports. According to analysts, since 2007 this is the largest increase on an annualized basis. In addition, the amount of expenses turned out to be higher than expected. Taking into account the sphere of telecommunications, expenses increased by 6% to almost $3 trillion.

Hardware costs (personal computers, servers, storage systems, peripheral equipment, etc.) increased the most - by 16% to more than $661 billion. The last time the hardware segment showed such a high growth rate was more than 10 years ago, in 1996. DSS costs increased by 14%, PCs - by 11%, servers - by 9%.

The increase in software and service costs was not as significant as the increase in hardware costs - only 4% and 2%, respectively. This is due to the intentions of many companies to move to more active implementation of cloud computing in 2011, which forced to postpone the implementation of projects, especially at the end of the year, experts explain.

IT spending ranks first in areas such as cloud, social technology, data storage, and mobile services. According to a Gartner report (October 2011), in 2010, $74 billion was spent by companies on public cloud services, which amounted to only about 3% of total spending.

See also

• Europe's IT Market
• IT market of Russia
• Global IT Market Trends
• ICT (Global Market)

Notes