Global IT Market Trends

Main article: Technological innovations

Trends in software development

Main article: Trends in software development

Trends in digitalization of enterprises

Main article: Corporate Information Systems

• IT infrastructure in companies

Global Telecom Trends

Main article: Trends in global telecom

2023

Named 5 IT trends that will change the world

Generative artificial intelligence, advanced connectivity, cloud and edge computing will drive the transformation of the global IT industry and the daily lives of people in general. This is stated in a study by McKinsey, the results of which were released on July 20, 2023.

Analysts note that in 2023, investments in most technology segments are declining compared to the previous year. This is due to the difficult macroeconomic situation, high inflation and the desire of enterprises to reduce costs in a crisis. However, as noted, the growth potential of the IT market remains high. For example, nascent directions such as quantum computing continue to evolve dynamically and demonstrate significant opportunities for profit. At the same time, one of the main problems restraining the growth of promising areas is the lack of qualified specialists. Overall, McKinsey identifies five key technology categories that will change the world.

In 2023, investments in most technology segments are declining compared to the previous year

1. Artificial intelligence revolution

Neural networks and machine learning tools can be used to solve problems of classification, forecasting and automation of actions, to expand the capabilities of existing IT platforms, as well as to make more effective decisions. It is said, in particular, that from 20% to 30% of the time that employees spend at work could be transformed using automation technologies: this, analysts believe, will lead to significant changes in the organization of the labor process in order to ensure long-term success. At the same time, generative AI will help speed up work by quickly analyzing vast arrays of unstructured data and creating new content - texts, audio and video materials, program code, etc.

2. Shaping the Digital Future

Web3 technologies include platforms and applications designed to effectively transition to decentralized Internet with open standards and protocols. At the same time, intellectual and digital property rights will be strictly respected. The implementation of the Web3 will potentially give users more control over their data and stimulate the emergence of new business models. The transformation, according to analysts, should be facilitated by digital identification systems, zero trust architectures (ZTA), new privacy tools, etc.

3. Advanced computing and communication capabilities

Low-power wireless networks, cellular communications/ 5G, standards 6 and 6G Wi-Fi 7, low-orbit satellite constellations and other technologies will help develop the latest digital solutions that drive growth and productivity in various industries. At the same time cloudy peripheral computing , they will make it possible to reduce delays in data transmission, reduce costs and ensure compliance with the rules of sovereignty.

The growth potential of the IT market remains high

4. Innovative developments

Quantum technologies can give exponential increases in performance when solving certain resource-intensive problems. New transport platforms for increased mobility will help to increase the efficiency and sustainability of land and air transportation of people and goods. At the same time, the convergence of biological and information technologies will improve the health and well-being of citizens, as well as increase performance.

5. A Sustainable World

Electrification and renewable energy sources help reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere and improve the environmental situation. Further development of solar and wind power is expected. In addition, the expansion of the CCUS concept of carbon capture, use and storage will continue. Analysts also predict the introduction of advanced technologies in the field of agriculture.^[1]

Named the main trends that will most affect IT companies until 2025

On February 1, 2023, the company Gartner released a forecast that examines key trends that could have the most significant impact on the operation and transformation of IT companies until 2025.

Analysts say that, despite the difficult macroeconomic situation and numerous challenges, the digitalization of enterprises continues. Companies are increasingly relying on advanced technologies and the capabilities they provide. At the same time, the influence of economic factors increases. Against this background, Gartner has identified a number of trends that are recommended to be taken into account when optimizing business models and organizing activities.

Democratization of technology

This approach enables non-IT workers to search, choose, implement, and adapt their own technologies. Gartner predicts that by 2025, 55% of all successful new technology solutions will be delivered to "non-traditional" customers - for example, outside of IT. This will allow suppliers to enter new markets and establish new relationships with customers.

The main trends that will most affect IT companies are named

Allied consumption of corporate technologies

With this concept, purchase decisions are made by representatives of the entire business. Under the influence of democratization of technology, allied purchases of corporate solutions are gaining momentum: only 26% of respondents in a recent Gartner survey reported that purchases are funded exclusively by IT.

Product Driven Growth (PLG)

This end-user-driven business model relies on the product as a major driver of attraction, conversion and growth. By 2025, 95% of Software as a Service (SaaS) providers are projected to use the PLG concept to attract new customers.

Collaborative innovative ecosystems

The ecosystem approach to innovation is a new practice that enables the integration of internal, external, collaborative and creative ideas to create new value. Enterprises are actively using technology to differentiate and succeed, so they are increasingly innovating with technology providers.

Digital marketplaces

Technology buyers are mastering digital marketplaces to find, purchase, implement and integrate advanced solutions. Non-technology customers are also increasingly turning to marketplaces to meet their technology requirements. In such a situation, digital marketplaces accelerate the time to market, expand the coverage of target segments and help in the development of partner ecosystems.

Intelligent applications

Such solutions will create values and transform markets by learning, adapting and generating new ideas and results. One example is generative artificial intelligence, creating new media content (text, images, video, and audio), synthetic data, and models of physical objects.

Metaverse Technologies

Such solutions are rapidly gaining popularity in marketing due to the creation of unique experiences. By 2027, more than 40% of large organizations worldwide are projected to use a combination of Web3, spatial computing and digital twins in metaverse-based projects aimed at increasing revenue.

The main trends that will most affect IT companies are named

Sustainable business

Technology providers should improve the sustainability of their products to ensure stable business results. A recent Gartner survey found that 42% of executives currently use sustainability tools to drive innovation, differentiation and business growth.

Technonationalism

Political decisions force countries to implement digital sovereignty rules, leading to technology divergence. In response to this trend, executives should look for a balance between product localization and profitability.^[2]

2022: Gartner names 25 IT trends to watch in coming years

On August 10, 2022, analyst firm Gartner released its annual Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report, which named 25 IT trends.

The new trends are significantly different from those presented in Gartner's 2021 report. However, Gartner said the technologies it introduced in the new report are capable of providing a significant competitive advantage for those who implement them early over the next two to 10 years.

Gartner Technology Curve

The Digital Client Twin (DToC) is a dynamic virtual client model that models, learns to simulate, and anticipate behavior. The model can be used to change and improve customer experience (CX) and provide support for new efforts to digitalize products, services, and new features.

Decentralized identifiable identity (DCI) allows a subject (typically a human user) to manage their own digital property using technologies such as blockchain or other distributed registry (DLT) technologies and digital wallets.

Digital people are interactive, AI-driven images with some characteristics, personality, knowledge and human thinking.

Internal talent markets match internal employees and, in some cases, a pool of salaried employees with time-limited projects and various job opportunities without the participation of a recruiter.

A metaverse is a collective virtual shared three-dimensional space formed by a combination of virtual augmented physical and digital reality. The metavirtual universe is permanent, providing an extended immersion experience.

An NFT is a unique programmable digital unit based on blockchain technology that openly certifies ownership of digital assets such as digital art or music, or physical assets that are tokenized, such as homes, cars or documents.

A super application is a composite mobile application created as a platform to provide modular micro-applications that users can activate for personal interaction with the application.

Web3 is a technology platform for creating decentralized web applications that allow the user to control their personal information and other interaction data.

Autonomous systems are self-managed physical or software systems that perform tasks limited to a specific area that demonstrate three fundamental characteristics: autonomy, learning ability, and autonomy. When traditional AI technologies are unable to provide business adaptability, flexibility, and agility, autonomous systems can successfully help implement them.

Causal artificial intelligence identifies and exploits causal relationships, allowing it to move beyond correlation prediction models to AI systems that can prescribe actions more efficiently and act more autonomously.

Basic models are transformer-based models, such as scale linguistic models that embody a type of deep neural network architecture that calculates digital reproduction of text in the context of words nearby in meaning, focusing on their sequences.

AI generative design or AI augmented design is the use of AI, machine learning (ML), and natural language processing (NLP) technologies to automatically generate and develop user routes, screen design, content, and presentation layer code for digital products.

Machine learning code generation tools include ML cloud models that connect to professional developers' integrated development environments (IDEs) and are extensions that offer code based on natural language descriptions or partial code fragments.

Cloud-based data ecosystems provide a holistic data management infrastructure that can support a wide range of workloads, from research processing to online data storage. Cloud-based data ecosystems provide optimal delivery and comprehensive functionality that is easy to deploy, optimize, and maintain.

Augmented FinOps automates traditional DevOps concepts such as flexibility, continuous integration and deployment, and end-user feedback to manage financial resources, budget, and rationalize spending by applying artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques.

10 августа 2022 года аналитическая компания Gartner опубликовала ежегодный отчет Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies в котором были названы 25 тенденций в сфере information technology

Cloud sustainability is the application of cloud services to achieve sustainable development in economic, environmental and social systems.

The computation store (CS) transfers the processing of the host data from the main memory of the central processor to the storage devices.

The Network Cybersecurity Architecture (CSMA) is the latest approach to building composable, dispersed security controls that improve the efficiency of security systems in general.

Data observability is the ability to monitor the state of an organization's data landscape, data pipelines, and data infrastructures by continuously monitoring, tracking, analyzing, and resolving unacceptable incidents.

Dynamic Risk Management (DRG) is a new approach to addressing the critical challenge of defining risk management roles and responsibilities. DRG adjusts risk management to suit each risk, enabling organizations to better manage risk and reduce the cost of ensuring its reliability.

Industry cloud platforms use their underlying cloud services SaaS (software-as-a-service), platform-as-a-service PaaS (), and infrastructure-as-a-service () IaaS to offer industry-relevant bundled business and technical solutions for a particular industry as an entire product offering.

The Minimum Viable Architecture (MVA) is a standardized framework used by product development teams to ensure timely and compliant product development and iteration.

Observability-oriented development (ODD) is a software development practice that provides detailed visibility and context of the state and behavior of a system by designing systems so that their processes can be monitored.

OpenTelemetry is a set of technical requirements, tools, application programming interfaces (), API and software development tools () SDK that describes and provides support for the implementation of open source tools and surveillance structures for software.

Platform engineering is the discipline of creating and operating internal developer platforms (IDPs) with self-management for software development and software lifecycle management.

2021

IT Trends You Shouldn't Expect in 2022

In mid-December 2021, ABI Research analysts published a study identifying the trends that will shape the technology market in 2022 and trends that, while attracting a huge amount of speculation and commentary, are less likely to affect the technology market, among them metaverse and companion robots.

What won't happen in 2022?

Metaverse will not appear fully formed

Despite all the announcements and investments, the metaverse will not appear in 2022 or, according to ABI Research, during the typical 5-year forecast window. The metaverse is still more of a buzzword and vision than a formed ultimate goal with a certain date of real full use. By the end of 2021, there are a number of technology companies building their version of the "metaverse," but this metaverse is not fully interconnected, does not yet widely use open standards and, of course, has not fully embraced extended reality (XR) (some would also add crypto economics to the list, this idea is also not yet implemented).

There will be no boom in peripheral computing deployment

Peripheral computation, both multiple access boundary computation (MEC) and general peripheral computation, will continue to increase in the number of deployments. However, the 2022 deployments will be mostly critical, accomplished by the very first users, rather than the beginning of the expected boom. Boundary computing options and financial viability are closely linked to 5G cellular networks, both public and private. The availability of price-loyal 5G services, on which peripheral computing will develop, has not yet become a global reality. As a result, the adoption of peripheral computing will be slower than expected.

Companion robots will not be widely used

After several years of leading social robotics companies either closing stores or pulling out of their commercial offerings, investment in the segment resumed in 2021, the potential of companion robots has also been revised. The launch Amazon of its first social robot Astro certainly drew a lot of attention. However, despite the huge potential of social and accompanying robotics, 2022 will not be the breakthrough year the industry hopes for, despite the scale, prices and awareness that a player like Amazon can bring to an emerging tech market.

Sales volumes of new cars will not return to the previous indicators

The supply chain for the auto industry remains unable to meet pent-up demand due to a shortage of critical semiconductors. Reliance on outdated semiconductor manufacturing technologies with limited manufacturing capacity, patented designs and an opaque demand alert process has prolonged the semiconductor crisis in the automotive sector. There are no quick solutions to the problems that have been created for years. Thus, the consequences of the decision made by automakers in 2020 to cancel existing orders for semiconductors will continue after 2022. ABI Research does not expect new car sales to return to the 90 million mark (the last time this figure was recorded in 2018) until 2023.

Lack of positive dynamics from a shortage of semiconductors

Until 2023, ABI Research said, the problem of semiconductor shortages will be solved, in particular through additional capacity, verification of real demand (compared to panic double or triple orders) and inflationary impact on consumer spending on goods. Persistent risk factors include social/political risks and the ability to commission new production facilities in time, especially for vehicles and commercial vehicles with stringent design requirements. New strains of COVID-19 and their impact on countries with low vaccination rates also play a role in resolving this problem, including the possibility of staffing and transporting finished products and semiconductor materials.^[3]

TrendForce analysts name 10 IT trends for 2022

At the end of September 2021, the analytical company TrendForce presented a forecast, which named the 10 main trends that are expected to manifest themselves in different segments of the information technology industry in 2022.

TrendForce analysts name 10 tech trends for 2022

Development of micro-LED and mini-LED displays will focus on active matrix solutions

The creation of micro-LED and mini-LED displays in 2022 will focus on solutions based on an active matrix, however, due to a large number of technical problems, the production of such displays will still be quite expensive.

As for the development of self-emitting LED displays, TVs are one of the main directions of mass development of Micro LED, primarily because TVs, compared to IT products, have a relatively low technological barrier to entry.

Advanced AMOLED technology and cameras under the display will open a new stage in the smartphone revolution

In 2021, the main feature of AMOLED panels is expected to continue to be foldable structures, which will differ in optimal weight and energy efficiency. TrendForce expects foldable phones to reach penetration rates of more than 1% in 2022 and 4% in 2024

In semiconductor production, the development of 3 nm standards will determine

TrendForce expects TSMC to continue using FinFET transistor technology, with Samsung moving to GAA.

The start of mass production of memory DDR5

The three dominant DRAM suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) will not only gradually begin mass production of DDR5 next generation products, but will also continue to increase LPDDR5 penetration into the smartphone market in response to demand for. smartphones 5G In terms of storage interfaces, analysts expect the market share of PCIe Gen4 SSDs to grow sharply in the consumer PC segment in 2022. In the server segment, when Intel the Eagle Stream processors that support PCIe Gen 5 go into mass production, products that support this interface will also appear on the enterprise solid state drive market.

Mobile network operators to launch more trial projects to segment 5G SA networks and low-latency apps

By 2022, in response to the needs of businesses, there will be applications that are at the intersection of 5G, massive IoT and critical IoT applications. In particular, critical IoT applications include smart network automation, telemedicine, road safety, and industrial automation.

Satellite communications

Satellite operators will compete in the low-orbit satellite market, and 3GPP will include non-terrestrial networks in the Release 17 Protocol Coding Freeze standard.

Digital production

While smart factories were among the first to use digital twins, TrendForce expects IoT technologies to become the basis of the metaverse

The development of the Internet of Things in 2022 is likely to focus on CPS (Cyberphysical Systems), which combine 5G, peripheral computing and artificial intelligence technologies to extract and analyze valuable information from huge data streams for the purpose of intelligent automation and forecasting.

В конце сентября 2021 года аналитическая компания TrendForce представила прогноз, в котором названы 10 основных тенденций, которые, как предполагается, будут проявляться в разных сегментах отрасли information technology technology in 2022.

Advanced Virtual Reality

Manufacturers of AR and VR equipment are expected to strive to provide full immersion by integrating additional sensors and data processing using AI algorithms .

Automated car parking

Being a natural continuation of autonomous driving technology, automated car parking in 2022 will become a particularly valuable additional function of high-end vehicles, analysts are sure.

New semiconductor technologies

Driven by increased demand for an element base for electric vehicles, the third-generation semiconductor industry will move toward introducing 200 mm SiC and GaN wafers and new housing technologies.^[4]

2020

Gartner named the main IT trends in 2021 and subsequent years

In mid-October 2020, Gartner presented a list of major technology trends for 2021.

1. Internet behavior

Gartner analysts first introduced the term "Internet behavior" (IoB) in the forecast for 2020 - these are technologies for monitoring behavioral phenomena and managing the data that affect them. This includes facial recognition, location tracking and big data. Gartner predicts that by the end of 2025, more than half of the world's population will be involved in at least one IoB program.

2. Mesh Network Technology in Cybersecurity

Mesh technology allows people to access any digital asset, no matter where the asset or the person is. Due to the expansion of digital assets beyond the firewall, especially when using cloud technology and remote work, managers have to look for new approaches to cybersecurity, including mesh technology. Gartner predicts that the cybersecurity network will support more than half of digital access control requests by 2025.

3. Generalized experience

These technologies tie together the experience of customers, employees and users. Given that the interaction of people is increasingly moving into the virtual sphere, companies absolutely need such tools. Gartner predicts that organizations providing generalized expertise will be able to overtake competitors in key indicators within three years.

4. Intelligent Composite Business

Intelligent composite business implies that applications and bundled business capabilities are treated as separate functional blocks available through the API. They can be developed internally or provided by suppliers, and the new structure will allow you to combine the business capabilities of individual packages and databases. This approach will allow companies to carry out a rapid reconfiguration of the business.

5. Hyper automation

Analysts note a huge demand for automation of repetitive manual processes and tasks. At the same time, companies are moving from automating individual tasks to automating processes with several tasks, as well as functional automation of several processes and even to automation at the level of the business ecosystem.

6. An accessible IT operating model

Analysts believe that the all-available IT operating model will become another trend in 2021, as it frees employees and customers from the need to do business in a particular place. This model gained particular importance during the pandemic. Gartner predicts that by the end of 2023, 40% of organizations will be applying the new model for virtual and physical interaction with customers and employees.

7. Designing artificial intelligence systems

According to research by Gartner, only 53% of AI projects go from prototypes to production. Therefore, another trend will be to provide a reliable structure that will create the basis for the design, scaling and transition of new AI systems into production.

Gartner named the main IT trends in 2021: distributed cloud, design of artificial intelligence systems, an accessible IT operating model

8. Distributed Cloud

This trend includes the distribution of public cloud services to various physical locations, in which the provider of this cloud is responsible for the operation, management and development of services. Gartner predicts that most cloud service platforms will provide at least a few distributed cloud services by 2025.

9. Privacy

Data privacy is an increasingly serious issue, and Gartner predicts that by 2025, half of large organizations will be implementing computing systems that ensure data privacy in unreliable environments.^[5]

Gartner names 5 top IT trends for the next 10 years

At the end of August 2020, Gartner named 5 main IT trends that will significantly affect business, society and everyone in the next 5-10 years.

1. Composite Business Architecture

Experts recommend that organizations switch to a more flexible composite business architecture. The modular business model has four basic principles: modularity, efficiency, continuous improvement and adaptive innovation. This model allows organizations to move from hard traditional planning to flexible response to rapidly changing business needs. In general, it creates opportunities for innovative approaches, reduces costs and improves partnerships. Other technologies to look out for under the new business model include "bundled" business services, data factories, private 5G networks and embedded AI.

Gartner's New Technology Outlook

2. Algorithmic trust

Organizations can no longer fully trust the controls, and algorithms take their place. Algorithmic trust models ensure data privacy and security, track their origins, and confirm the identity of people and things. Gartner believes increased interest in blockchain will lead to increased digital authentication and verification capabilities. Among the technologies related to algorithmic trust, analysts note Secure Access Service Edge (SASE), as well as responsible and explainable AI, that is, an algorithm with traceable stages.

3. Silicon-free technologies

Moore's Law says the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit will double every two years, but the technology is fast approaching the physical limits of silicon. As a result, new materials began to appear with advanced capabilities that allow you to make technologies more compact and faster. For example, DNA calculations use DNA and biochemical reactions instead of silicon or quantum architectures to perform calculations or store data. Other technologies in the field include biodegradable sensors and carbon-based transistors.

4. Forming AI

A shaping AI is a type of AI capable of dynamically changing to respond to a situation. There are many subtypes of it: from AI, which can dynamically adapt over time, to technologies that can create new models to solve specific problems. For example, generative AI is a type of AI that can create new content (images, videos, etc.) or modify existing content. Other technologies include composite AI, differential privacy, "small data," and self-monitoring training.

In August 2020, Gartner named 5 main IT trends for the next 10 years

5. Digitalization of personality

Technology is increasingly integrating with people, which means that there are more and more opportunities for creating digital versions of a person. These digital human counterparts can exist in both physical and virtual space. For example, a two-way neurocomputer interface is a system created to exchange information between the brain and an electronic device, which can be a wearable device or an implant for registering an electroencephalogram (EEG). They can be used for identification, access, payment, and immersive analytics. However, such an interface is also an additional vulnerability that attackers can exploit. Other technologies include a "health passport" and digital doubles of a citizen.^[6]

IDC: How coronavirus will help the IT industry

On February 16, 2020, IDC analysts published a study in which they reported that the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus in China not only undermines the global economy, but also has the potential to favorably affect the development of the ICT industry and opens up new business opportunities for developers of information and communication technologies.

In particular, the virus epidemic spurs governments to update their activities, moving towards smart and state-of-the-art technologies. This creates opportunities for the development of digital platforms and Big Data solutions.

According to IDC analysts, the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus will lead to five major changes in the Chinese economy: smarter government management, decentralization of urban clusters, accelerated digital transformation in the healthcare system, accelerated implementation of contactless services and faster implementation of a strategy to turn China into the leader of the global supply channel

Also, the outbreak of the cronovirus pushes the creation of smart cities and parks, contributing to the decentralization of the management of urban clusters and, on the contrary, the centralization of individual cities.

Other opportunities relate to online health services as the virus stimulates the acceleration of digital transformation of health systems.

In addition, according to experts, new opportunities are being created for companies and services that offer employees remote work. Approaches in education are also changing: in case of mass diseases, people will strive for distance education and online courses.

Opportunities for business development are received by technology developers for stores where a minimum of staff is used or absent, as well as Internet food delivery services and telecom operators with construction 5G-nets and launching services based on them.

How coronavirus will affect the Chinese ICT market, IDC forecast

Finally, the coronavirus outbreak is capable of giving a new round of robot development for their use in supply management systems. Demand for industrial and service robots should grow, which in turn contributes to the development of a national strategy in China called China + 1. Within the framework of it, authorities and companies seek to contain or reduce labor costs, including through the use of technological solutions.

IDC analyst Lianfeng Wu recommends that vendors fully use digital technologies to develop opportunities and habits of remote interaction with customers and partners, implement effective marketing of online products and services, as well as proper cost control and use of state support. Working in this direction, investing in promising business ideas and innovations, companies will be able to advance greatly and earn a lot after the end of the epidemic, the expert said.

Despite the prospects that the coronavirus outbreak opens up for the ICT market, it has a gigantic negative impact on the global economy and China, in particular. Thus, according to IDC forecasts, global difficulties arising from COVID-19 will lead to the fact that the cost of information and communication technologies in the PRC in the first quarter of 2020 will be reduced by 10%. Sales of computers and smartphones will fall by 30%, servers, network equipment and storage systems will fall by 15%. The impact on the entire Celestial Empire will be huge, given that digital technologies account for 37.8% of the local economy, analysts say.

The COVID-19 outbreak will have an even greater impact on the overall economy than the SARS outbreak in 2003, says IDC China Managing Director Kitty Fok. - We expect that the impact will be significant in the first quarter, but will gradually decrease in subsequent quarters, and at the end of the year the impact on economic growth will be limited. The consequences for the Chinese ICT market will also be more significant than in 2003, since then the role of information and communication technologies was not the same as it is now.[7]

2010-2019: AI, cloud, end-to-end high-level digitalization

• Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
• Smartphones (in this form factor appeared in 2007-2008, but the main expansion since 2010)
• Mobile Software Industry
• Mobile photography at the professional photo level
• Cloud
• Big data
• Expansion of computing power (video cards)
• Autopilots and drones
• Robotics (although the initial implementation was in the 1990s)
• 3D printing

• Streaming Media Services

• Blockchain and cryptocurrencies
• Virtual and augmented reality
• Computer games are less and less different from cinema (a fundamental leap in the quality of 33-graphics)
• Electronic services (financial, public)
• Internet of Things (IoT)
• Software as a service (refusal of fixed payments towards annual subscriptions, SaaS).

2019

10 trends in the IT market in 2020

At the end of November 2019, the international research and consulting company IDC presented 10 forecasts for the development of the IT industry in 2020.

1. Companies rush to innovation

By 2023, more than 50% of all ICT spending will go to digital transformation and innovation (for comparison, in 2018 this share was 27%). Companies must come up with a multi-year digital transformation plan and identify critical success factors to keep up with the rest of the world.

2. Using Cloud Services

To remain competitive, modern services must operate anywhere, anytime. By 2022, 70% of enterprises will implement unified technologies, tools and processes of hybrid/multi-link management. Organizations must prepare, find priority proposals based on SaaS, identify relevant key business indicators, and reintegrate the entire IT infrastructure.

Using Cloud Services

3. Peripheral Computing

By 2023, more than 50% of corporate infrastructure will be deployed on peripheral devices rather than data centers (less than 10% in 2019). It is estimated that by 2024 the number of applications with peripheral computing will grow by 800%. Companies will have to modernize their IT infrastructure in order to keep pace with the times, as well as find new partners.

4. Digital Innovation Plants

Nearly two-thirds of businesses will become software manufacturers by 2025. More than 90% of applications will become cloud, 80% of code will come from external sources, and there will be 1.6 times more developers than today. Business leaders are encouraged to invest in automation systems and start interacting with open source software communities.

5. Industrial applications boom

By 2023, more than 500 million digital applications and services will be developed and deployed using cloud technology. Most will target industry. As new applications and services become available, new minimum competitive requirements will be created in each industry.

Industrial applications boom

6. AI is inevitable

By 2025, 90% of new enterprise applications will use AI. By 2024, more than 50% of user interface interactions will use computer vision, speech, natural language processing, and augmented/virtual reality features.

7. Growing trust

By 2023, most organizations will build trust in security, risk, compliance, privacy and ethical business operations. Trust must become a foundational concept for companies to remain competitive.

8. Every enterprise is a platform

By 2023, 60% of large companies will be connected to the digital ecosystem of programmers and application developers. Half of these businesses will receive at least 20% of revenue through their own digital ecosystem/platform.

9. Cross-sectoral cooperation

By 2025, 20% of revenue growth will come from offerings that combine digital services from previously unrelated industries. About 20% of partners will also come from new industries.

10. Tech wars continue

By 2023, the market is consolidating around a small number of cloud services mega platforms, and five of them will cover at least 75% of IaaS and PaaS market share. The top 10 SaaS providers will receive nearly 20% of revenue on average from the expansion of their PaaS services.^[8]

Medvedev: the world is threatened by monopolization in the field of IT

The Prime Minister, Russia Dmitry Medvedev speaking at the business investment summit of the Association of Southeast Nations (Asia ASEAN) in early November 2019, spoke about the global threat of monopolization in the field. information technology

According to Medvedev, companies and entire countries are highly dependent on equipment and software, most of which are produced by only a few corporations that dominate the market, RIA Novosti reports.

Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the business investment summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in early November 2019, spoke about the global threat of monopolization in the field of information technology

This interferes with both healthy competition and the introduction of new promising ideas. Russia advocates joint efforts to demonopolize this area, to develop competition in this area, to create new solutions both in the field of software products and in the field of technology, "Medvedev said.

He noted that high technologies strengthen the socio-economic gap between countries, although at the same time they open up new opportunities.

The head of the Russian government stressed that Russia and its partner countries need joint solutions not only on the possibilities that these technologies open up, but also on the challenges that states face and the fourth industrial revolution on a global scale.

States that do not have their own digital platforms can lose, if not sovereignty, then in any case a huge number of opportunities and, in principle, the right to the future in a changing world. When there are no own technologies, it turns out that there is no own development, "the Prime Minister pointed out, adding that new technological solutions open up great opportunities for people, business and states.

Dmitry Medvedev also said that five technology companies from the United States and two from China are leading in the global market. Medvedev did not list the names of these companies.^[9]

TrendForce: Top 10 ICT trends for 2020

In mid-October 2019, TrendForce, an analytical company, presented a forecast for the development of the information and communication technology industry for 2020. Below are 10 key provisions.

10 Key Information and Communication Technology Industry Development Provisions for 2020

Demand for AI, 5G and automation will allow the global semiconductor market to recover

The global semiconductor market collapsed in 2019 due to the consequences of trade disputes between the United States and China. While the forecast for 2020 remains uncertain, the market recovery is expected to be boosted by demand related to 5G, AI and automation applications.

DRAM will develop towards EUV and DDR5/LPDDR5

DRAM manufacturers are actively working to increase power and reduce power consumption, and modules such as EUV and DDR5/LPDDR5 should come first. Although DDR5/LPDDR5 tobco products will debut on the market and must go through the stage of initial adoption and selection, their advantages over DDR4/LPDDR4 are unlikely to go unnoticed.

Range of 5G commercial solutions expands

Major manufacturers and suppliers of telecommunications equipment will implement various hardware and software solutions, competing for a share of the 5G market. The focus of network architecture development will be on Standalone (SA) 5G technology, so growing demand for 5G New Radio (NR) hardware is highly likely.

5G smartphones will exceed 15% market share

Smartphone manufacturers will focus on increasing screen area and flexibility, wider adoption of fingerprint sensors, memory optimization and 5G support. It is expected that more than 50% of smartphones with 5G support will be produced under Chinese brands.

5G smartphones will exceed 15% market share

Tablets will be the new battlefield between mini LEDs and OLEDs

More and more affordable are the production conditions for higher-end smartphones, which increase contrast thanks to mini-LED backlighting. It is assumed that the iPad 2020 will be equipped with mini LED backlight and OLED at the same time, so that tablets can become a new battlefield between mini LEDs and OLEDs.

Micro LED could conquer the display industry

More manufacturers are using Micro LED, but due to existing restrictions, the maximum size of such a display is 12 inches. However, the use of the latest technologies is quite capable of bringing Micro LED to the first place in the display market.

Growing adoption of 3D modules based on ToF solutions will contribute to the development of AR applications

ToF modules will become one of the main options for manufacturers of branded smartphones in the development of rear cameras of devices. This will expand augmented reality (AR) capabilities with accurate 3D depth mapping, driving demand for AR applications.

Touch capabilities are the foundation for increasing IoT value

IoT will penetrate more and more into various application markets and transform entire industries, stimulating process optimization and creating additional services. Improving sensor capabilities will allow intelligent devices to more adequately adjust to changes in the environment, which means it will increase the value of IoT in general.

Race to commercialize unmanned vehicles

In 2020, the number of commercial applications for unmanned vehicles will increase, but the cost of their development is quite high, and car manufacturers will have to find new business models that will support the profitability of development.

Solar panels with standardized cost are a thing of the past

The development of solar cell technologies has made it possible to move away from the standard cost estimate by cell. Now manufacturers need to improve the efficiency of individual cells and the total power of the module, and they cannot set a specific battery price in the future market. Now the price will depend only on market demand and supply.^[10]

15 key technologies that could change our lives - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bank of America Merrill Lynch studied the technologies of the future that can change our lives and have an impact on the industry with a total value of more than $13 trillion. The results of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch study were provided to TAdviser on October 8, 2019.

• Quantum computers could solve problems that would take traditional computers a billion years.
• The 6G download speed can exceed 400 Gb/s.
• Nanosatellites can provide the Internet with the entire planet.
• From the bowels of the ocean you can extract 3 times more cobalt for the production of electric vehicles than from the bowels of the earth.
• Graphene (the thinnest and most durable material known to man) can have many revolutionary uses.
• Artificial intelligence may be equal to human intelligence as early as 2029.

These are just some of the 15 key technologies from this report that could transform our lives and accelerate the impact of global megatrends. Despite the fact that these technologies look like ideas of the far future, they are not as far away as we think. Failing to identify them could mean missing the next technological revolution.

The pace of business transformation has accelerated significantly; but we expect even more exponential growth in the coming years. So what seems to happen only in 10 to 15 years can happen much faster. The increase in data (doubling every 2-3 years), greater computing power and the increasing proliferation of artificial intelligence (200 billion plug-in devices by 2025) will lead to the rapid adoption of breakthrough technologies.

To solve the emerging problems and challenges facing the world, non-standard solutions are needed. In the next 40 years, the planet will need to produce more food than all peasants and farmers have produced in the last 8,000 years. Next-generation technologies like vertical farming and lab-grown meat could be the solution. And geoengineering can mitigate the problem of global warming with investments of less than 1% of the annual global capex in the oil industry. In the next 10 years, 5G will not be able to cope with the exponential growth of data transmission. The 6G can deliver speeds up to 400 times faster than 5G. As of October 2019, 41% of the planet is still not connected to the Internet. Satellite constellations may begin to provide wider access as early as 2021.

Using third-party forecasts of potential market sizes, we estimate that the total revenue from these 15 key technologies in 2018 amounted to $8.1 billion, and by 2025 will grow to $48.4 billion (with a total CAGR of 26%).

LiFi, deep-sea mining, hyperloop, quantum computers and graphene have the highest CAGR rates until 2025. Mass vertical farming, LiFi, quantum computers and nanosatellites are expected to have the largest market sizes in 2025.

The Next Techs' market sizes from 2018 to 2025 (US$bn)

The Next Tech's CAGR for market size to 2025

These technologies can have a disruptive or disruptive impact on established industries with a total value of $13 trillion and make a significant contribution to the next 10-15 years of the development of intelligent technologies.

10 wireless technologies that will determine the future of the ICT market - Gartner

At the end of July 2019 Gartner , she cited a list of wireless technologies that, according to the analytical company, will determine the future of the ICT market.

As Gartner President of Research Nick Jones clarified, we are talking about 10 wireless technologies and trends that will stimulate innovation in areas such as robotics, drones, unmanned vehicles and medical equipment.

Wi-Fi

Wi-Fi has existed for a long time, and this network technology will remain the main one for use in homes and offices until the end of 2024, the researchers are sure. In addition to simple communications, Wi-Fi will find application in more complex projects - for example, in radar equipment or as a component of two-factor authentication systems.

5G

Some operators began to introduce fifth-generation (5G) networks in 2019, others will begin their construction in 2020. It is expected that the deployment of the technology will take from 5 to 8 years. In some cases, it can complement Wi-Fi because it is economical for high-speed data transmission at large facilities such as ports, airports and factories. Nick Jones believes that future versions of the 5G standard will improve the use of technology in the Internet of Things and systems where minimal data latency is required.

5G networks began to launch in 2019

V2X

Conventional and self-driving cars will interact with each other and road infrastructure, and V2X technology can provide this. In addition, it will contribute to the development of new services related, for example, to road safety, navigation and entertainment in cars.

Over time, the V2X will become mandatory at the legislative level for all new cars, the Gartner analyst is sure.

Long Distance Wireless Electricity Transmission

The first attempts by manufacturers to implement such technologies did not lead to the revolution they hoped for. In the future, the situation may change, and the market will be filled with laptops, monitors and household appliances that receive energy without using cables.

LPWA Networks

They have proven their energy efficiency when used on the Internet of Things. The corresponding modules are inexpensive, so IoT equipment manufacturers can use them to create miniature, cheap battery-powered devices (for example, sensors and trackers).

Wireless Touch Network

It is a distributed self-organizing network of many sensors and actuators combined with each other through a radio channel. Wireless sensor networks have the potential to be used in a variety of areas - from medical diagnostics to object recognition to interacting with smart home systems, Jones said.

Wireless Technologies for High-Precision Positioning

IEEE 802.11az technology can track the location of an object or person with an accuracy of 1 meter. In addition, this functionality should appear in new versions of 5G.

Gartner analysts name top ten trends in wireless technology

Millimeter Wave Technology

It can be used by WiFi and 5G systems for high-speed data transmission (for example, 4K- and 8K video) in a small radius.

Backscatter

Backscatter technology can send data with very low power consumption. This feature makes the technology ideal for small network devices.^[11]

SDR

Software Controlled Radio (SCR) transfers most of the signal processing from chips to software, providing support for more frequencies and protocols. SDR will grow in popularity as new protocols become available, Gartner is confident.

McKinsey: Which technologies will transform lives, businesses and the global economy

In July 2019, the consulting company McKinsey presented a report on technologies that can change lives, business and the global economy in the coming years, including mobile internet, self-driving cars and advanced genomics on this list.

According to analysts' forecasts, by 2025 the potential economic effect of the introduction of such technologies will be in the range of $14-33 trillion. This analysis is based on an in-depth analysis of key potential benefits, including better products and lower prices. The report includes the following process areas:

• mobile internet;
• automation;
• internet of things;
• cloud computing;
• advanced robotics;
• autonomous vehicles;
• next-generation genomics;
• new means of energy storage;
• 3D printing;
• improved materials and fuel;
• renewables.

Projected Technology Economic Impact in 2025, McKinsey

One of the technologies included in the report is advanced robotics, that is, robots or robotic tools with AI capable of performing tasks that were previously considered too delicate or uneconomical for automation. Thus, robotic surgical systems make operative procedures less invasive, and robotic prosthetics and "exoskeletons" restore the lost functions of patients.

Next-generation genomics combines DNA imaging with rapidly evolving computational and analytical capabilities. As our understanding of human genomic structure improves, so does the ability to manipulate genes and improve diagnosis. Next-generation genomics will offer similar advances for plants and animals, potentially boosting the agricultural productivity of huge regions as well as creating valuable new substances, such as bacteria-based biodiesel.

Distribution of the economic impact of technology between developed and developing countries

Lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells are already powering electric and hybrid cars, as well as billions of portable household devices. In the coming decade, progressive energy storage technologies will be able to increase the competitiveness of electric vehicles, deliver electricity to remote areas of developing countries and improve the efficiency of the energy system as a whole, according to a study released in July 2019.

The potential benefits of the technologies discussed in the report are enormous, but if business leaders and governments passively expect them to come, they will not have time to benefit or respond to the consequences. Business leaders need to constantly update their organizational strategies to accommodate ever-evolving technologies and use them to improve internal productivity. New technologies will allow the creation of completely new products and services, but leaders do not need to be afraid to go beyond old business models.

After the industrial revolution, the world is moving

unprecedented growth in economic growth that has been driven by innovation. Calculation of world GDP per capita]]

Policymakers can use advanced technologies to solve their own problems (for example, by deploying the Internet of Things to manage infrastructure). The nature of the work will continue to change, and retraining of employees will be required. To solve these problems, some of the new technologies can be used, for example, by creating updated training systems using the mobile Internet. Governments will also need to consider new indicators that reflect more than just the impact of GDP, and this approach will help them strike a balance between stimulating growth and controlling public welfare.^[12]

2018

Top 10 IT forecasts from IDC

At the end of October 2018, the analytical company IDC presented a study that reflected the 10 leading global trends in the development of the IT industry for subsequent years.

1. By 2022, more than 60% of global GDP will come from digital technologies and solutions

Those manufacturers that cannot digitize their operations and offerings will lose out to competitors, as the traditional market will soon become a thing of the past.

Research firm IDC presented a study that reflected the top 10 global trends in the IT industry over the coming years

2. By 2023, 75% of all IT costs will be related to the development of platforms for product promotion

More than 90% of all enterprises will create their own digital IT environments for further development in the digital economy. Nearly half of the companies declared their "digital aspiration," according to IDC research. This means they have prepared to develop digital strategies and architectures that mimic the work of the companies that originally built the business around digital technology. Such enterprises and organizations leverage cloud, Agile, and DevOps practices, digital innovation platforms and communities, and integrated data management and monetization.

3. By 2022, more than 40% of cloud organizations will use edge computing, and 25% of end devices and systems will perform them using artificial intelligence algorithms

Peripheral computing is a method of optimizing cloud computing by performing data processing on the periphery of the network, near the source. It not only increases the efficiency of using applications for computing and working with data, but also contributes to more active adoption of the latest technologies, such as artificial intelligence and 5G communications, analysts say.

4. By 2022, 90% of all applications will be based on a microservice architecture that will improve the ability to develop, debug, update and use third-party code

By 2022, 35% of all application applications will be cloud-based. In the digital economy, companies must offer high-quality applications to meet business needs, analysts said. Such conditions lead to the transition to so-called "super-flexible applications" - container, server-free computing and other technologies that have parameters such as modularity, distribution, constant updatability and attitude to cloud computing. By combining such applications with approaches like Agile and DevOps, companies can develop innovation faster than before.

5. By 2024, a new type of professional developer who creates code without using their own scripts will increase the community of programmers as a whole by 30%. This will be an additional catalyst for digital transformation.

A new approach to developing applications based on the maximum use of ready-made modules will accelerate digital transformation by attracting new workers, the researchers say. The growing popularity of platforms that require minimal or completely zero code refinement, as well as model-based development tools, will open companies up to a new class of developers who can create digital solutions more often.

6. From 2018 to 2023, more applications will be created than in the last 40 years

Thanks to new tools/platforms, a large number of developers, flexible methods and the ability to reuse code for 2018-2023, 500 million new applications will be created, which exceeds the number of programs created over the previous 40 years.

7. By 2022, 25% of public cloud computing will be conducted on processors with an architecture other than x86 (including quantum)

According to analysts, the number of IT use cases will increase significantly over the years, thereby creating a wide range of specialized IT requirements. For example, the requirements for processing AI algorithms lead to the need to create even more powerful processors, and companies choose vertically oriented Solution SaaS twice as often as horizontal applications.

8. By 2024, user interfaces with AI support and process automation will replace a third of today's on-screen applications

By 2022, 30% of businesses will use speech recognition technologies to interact with customers, and AI will increasingly be used as the main user interface for a number of applications and services. Along with automation, this will maximize employee productivity.

9. By 2022, 50% of servers will encrypt all data

More than 50% of security alerts will be handled by AI-based automated mechanisms, and 150 million people will receive blockchain-based digital identifiers. New technologies such as encryption, blockchain, machine learning and analytics will be used to improve security measures.

10. By 2022, 80% of applications will be hosted on the four largest cloud "mega-platforms"

In the coming years, enterprises will begin to actively use integrated hybrid and multi-node tools and strategies. The lack of an integrated strategy will lead to a suboptimal allocation of resources, limited access to technological innovations, longer identification and solution of problems that modern companies cannot afford. By 2024, 90% of organizations will use hybrid cloud technologies and tools.^[13]

Gartner's Top 10 IT Forecasts

In October 2018, at the Gartner/ITxpo 2018 conference in Orlando, Florida (USA), Gartner analysts presented 10 predictions in the field of information technology for 2019 and subsequent years. The research report reflected new technologies that can change existing business models and lead to the creation of new ones. The challenge for IT executives is to identify the need for transformation from the perspective of their customers and support new digital business models.

Gartner analysts make forecasts for IT development in various areas

1. By 2020, 80% of projects involving the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies will be developed by several talented employees and will not be actively used within the company.

Although AI can provide real-time information at any stage of the project at any time and thereby improve the company's performance, most organizations prefer to remain in the starting positions. To ensure AI projects break through, executives will have to take responsibility and support them by outlining how necessary they are to grow the business, Gartner said in a report.

2. By 2023, the number of missing people will be reduced by 80% compared to 2018 thanks to facial recognition technology.

Already in 2018, facial recognition technologies began to be actively used in various fields - for example, on international flights at US airports. Just a few seconds of verification and the person's identity has been confirmed. Gartner believes that this technology will soon find its application in the field of combating poaching, allowing you to find missing animals whose species are at risk of extinction, for example, illegally exported elephants, rhinos and lions. In addition, such technology can be used to analyze shipping containers and packages that may be damaged during delivery.

3. By 2023, the frequency of visits to US emergency departments will decrease by 20 million thanks to virtual care for patients with chronic diseases.

A disease that lasts more than 3 months is considered chronic. Chronic diseases affect more than 40% of the population of developed countries, and in general they account for 75% of health care costs. The advent of artificial intelligence-based virtual assistants will help change this situation.

4. By 2023, 25% of organizations will require employees to sign off on cyberbullying, but 70% of these initiatives will fail.

Gartner believes that by 2019, the proportion of lawsuits related to workplace harassment will increase by 44% compared to 2017. More attention will be paid to how employees use social media in a working context, as well as the use of AI and machine learning to monitor cyberbullying in internal employee forums. Executives must be prepared to stop such cyberbullying to ensure a safe and comfortable work environment.

5. During 2022, 75% of organizations that pursue a policy of ensuring socio-cultural diversity and taking into account the individual characteristics of personnel will secure a financial advantage.

Gartner predicts that in 2019, more than 75% of large enterprises will set themselves the goal of ensuring socio-cultural diversity of employees for 2020-2022. By 2020, 10% of large enterprises will already have strategies to introduce non-obvious aspects of diversity (for example, styles and types of thinking).

6. By 2021, 75% of public companies using blockchain technologies will be affected by the law on the protection of confidential data, since almost all blockchain systems use personal data in one way or another.

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2017

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6. By 2020, human computer interfaces will become more diverse. 25% of field technicians and the same percentage of IT employees will use technology, and in augmented reality almost half of the new ones mobile applications , the main interface will become voice. In addition, 50% of consumer-facing Global 2000 companies will use biometric sensor data to personalize and improve the service.

By 2021, global spending on cloud services and infrastructure, including hardware, software and cloud computing services, will double and exceed $530 billion, IDC predicts

7. At least a quarter of companies in the Global 2000 rankings will make extensive use of blockchain services by 2021 to increase confidence in digital technology. According to IDC forecasts, by 2020, 25% of the world's leading banks, almost 30% manufacturers and retailers and 20% medical organizations will use blockchain in their activities.

8. By 2020, 90% of large enterprises will receive income from data-as-a-service services, as well as from the sale of raw and processed data, analytics and recommendations. In 2017, the share of such companies was close to only 50%.

9. In the next three years, simple development tools that do not require writing code or require this in a limited amount will be significantly improved, which will lead to a rapid increase in the number of non-technical developers. By 2021, they will create 20% of business applications and 30% of new functions within applications, and by 2027 this figure will increase to 60%.

10. By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises from the Global 2000 list, on average, about a third of interactions within digital services will occur using their own open API ecosystems, while in 2017 this figure was almost zero.^[14]

Top trends from Gartner

Gartner analysts at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 conference, held in October 2017 in Orlando (USA), presented a forecast for the IT market for 2018, taking into account the rapid development of the Internet of Things ( IoT ). According to experts, in the house of the future coffee machine will be able to find out the ideal temperature for boiling a drink from a photo from a package of coffee beans sent by the owner from a smartphone, washing machines will set the washing program themselves, scanning labels on clothes, and climate systems will learn to monitor the schedule of their maintenance and independently report to the maintenance service about problems.^[15]

Gartner names 10 IT trends for 2018

Experts formulated ten key trends and briefly characterized each of them.

1. Consumers choose visual and voice search

Visual and voice search methods are rapidly gaining popularity and will become the dominant search engines in the future, according to Gartner. Analysts recommend that companies prepare for a change in consumer preferences. By 2021, those brands whose sites will provide support for visual and voice search will be able to increase revenue from e-commerce by 30%.

2. Self-dissolution of Internet giants

Internet- giants, Amazon, and Apple Facebook Google repeatedly destroyed the accepted way in the industry, introducing new solutions, such as chatbots dialog interfaces, visual and voice search mechanisms. However, mega-corporations have grown so much that there are practically no areas unaffected by them. Therefore, in the future, companies may follow the path of self-dissolution, looking for new opportunities for growth. By 2020, five of the seven existing internet giants will voluntarily choose this option, according to Gartner.

3. Legalizing cryptocurrencies

In the future, virtual currencies will be legitimized, as a result of which by 2020 the total volume of transactions using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology will reach $1 billion.

4. Rise in fake news spread

By 2020, most residents of the developed economies of the world will receive more inaccurate information than truthful. Companies should prepare for such a scenario and develop a strategy that would reduce the opportunity to undermine the authority of their brands.

5. Replacing real events with fake reality

By 2020, the capabilities of artificial intelligence to create falsified reality ("counterfeit reality"), or, in other words, unreliable content, will surpass the ability to recognize such falsifications.

6. Bot Offensive

By 2021, more than 50% of corporations will spend more money on chatbots and the creation of programs that imitate communication with a living person on the Internet than on the development of traditional mobile applications.

7. Universalization instead of specialization

By 2021, 40% of IT employees of companies will be responsible for a variety of functions, and most of them will be related not to technology, but to business.

8. Artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it will take away

In 2020, the introduction of AI technologies will create 2.3 million additional jobs and lead to the elimination of only 1.8 million jobs.

9. IoT in everything

By 2020, Internet of Things technologies will be present in 95% of what is being created. electronic engineers

10. IoT vulnerability

Until 2022, half of all funds allocated for security in the IoT sphere will go to eliminate the consequences of cyber incidents and reverse recall of devices, and not to protective measures.

2016: List of key next-generation technologies according to Gartner

Analyst company Gartner has compiled a list of key next-generation technologies designed for the corporate sector. Experts also appreciated modern technological innovations, looking at them from a new angle of view, and clarified which solutions are at the peak of development, which will be in demand in the very near future, and which gradually come to naught.

Key Technologies in the Enterprise Sector, 2016 Gartner Data

As you can see in the illustration above, the strategically important technologies, which, according to Gartner, can improve the existing processes and infrastructure of companies (Incremental category), by 2016 are public and hybrid cloud infrastructures, microservice architectures, digital training, products for corporate collaboration and managing client capabilities using digitalization.

Technologies that companies need from a tactical point of view include foggy computing, adaptive cybersecurity, wearable electronics, mobile payment systems, work application integration, on-demand services, and contextual computing.

The study also cites technologies that create new markets or fundamentally change the current ones (Disruptive category). These are blockchain, Big Data, Internet of Things, machine learning, social networks, mobile applications, 3D printing, virtual reality, real-time data services and open APIs.

At the peak of development expectations in 2016 were technological directions such as machine learning, cybersecurity software solutions, cognitive technology, self-driving cars and carbon nanotubes in electronics.

Technologies With High Expectations for Development in 2016, Gartner Data

Among the innovations in the future, blockchain, smart robots and homes, IoT platforms, quantum computing, personal analytics, 4D printing, voice assistants, etc. will also be in demand.

2014: Trend Forecast from IDC

At the end of 2014, IDC analysts made a forecast for the next. Experts specializing in various segments of the ICT industry attempted to predict major technological trends in 2015.^[16]

Development of new technologies

According to IDC estimates, in 2015, global ICT spending will increase by 3.8% compared to 2014 and exceed $3.8 trillion. The main growth drivers are cloudy mobile technologies social networks and big data (). Big Data

Wireless Data Traffic Growth

Experts expect operators' wireless data costs to become the largest ($536 billion) and fastest growing (13%) segment of the telecommunications industry.

Top 10 IT trends of 2015 named

Phablets and wearable electronics

Sales of mobile devices and applications for them in 2015 will reach $484 billion and will provide a 40 percent contribution to the growth of the IT industry, analysts predict. In their opinion, a further rise in the smartphone market will be associated with phablets and corporate mobile applications.

As for wearable electronics, it is predicted an innovative breakthrough and sales of 40-50 million units at the end of 2015.

Cloud services

IDC predicts a cloud solutions market size of $118 billion at the end of 2015. The highest growth rates, measured at 36 percent, will be demonstrated by IaaS solutions. Frank Gens, senior vice president and lead analyst at IDC, believes that new and very unexpected alliances may form in the market, such as Facebook with Microsoft and Amazon with HP, which will expand market opportunities.

Big Data and Analytics

Due to the growing consumption of multimedia content, the cost of tools for processing and analyzing large amounts of data can exceed $125 billion.

Internet of Things

This market, as believed in IDC, is a fundamental factor in the rise of the so-called "third platform." Analysts include a new generation of computing systems formed under the influence of cloud and mobile technologies, social networks and big data. In 2015, even smarter devices are expected to appear, and about a third of the costs in the Internet of Things market will be concentrated around embedded electronics and diagnostic equipment.

Cloud-Focused Data Centers

In view of the fundamental transformation of the market, data centers where clouds play an increasingly important role, the very idea of ​ ​ will change. DPC Experts are confident that new equipment will be created with an eye on cloud technologies, which will cause consolidation among manufacturers of servers, ON disk storage and network equipment. IDC predicts two or three large M&A deals next year.

Rapid expansion of dedicated digital platforms

As new technologies are combined, innovative business platforms are created that can change each industry. As examples, analysts cite alternative payment systems in the financial sector, the spread of the "Internet of Things" in the field of urban security and public transport, and the expansion of geolocation services for retail businesses. In 2015, experts predict that the number of industry specialized platforms will double to 60.

Security and 3D Printing

Analysts expect increased attention to information security and 3D printing technologies. The latter is actively interested in manufacturers of traditional printing equipment, which can serve as a help for the rapid growth of the 3D printer market in 2015.

Safety will remain one of the major technology trends in 2015. This will be facilitated by the emergence of biometric sensors in smartphones, the development of technologies for encrypting data in the cloud and corporate cyber threat warning tools.

China

According to IDC forecasts, approximately 43% of the growth of the global ICT industry will fall on the Chinese market in 2015. Every third smartphone in the world will be purchased in the Celestial Empire, 30% of online purchases will come from there.

2012: Gartner on IT trends for all vertical industries through 2017

In December 2012, the research company Gartner^[17] released its main IT forecasts for 2013 for companies in various vertical industries. According to analysts, social systems, mobile communications, clouds and information growth will influence the business of companies around the world and lead to fundamental changes in business processes.

According to Kimberly Harris-Ferrante, vice president of Gartner, most industries will face a major transformation in 2013-2015. Chief information officer and other business executives can use Gartner's recommendations below to become more aware of the challenges posed by their widespread adaptation information technology and rapidly changing business environments.

• By 2016, the three automakers are announcing specific plans for cars that will use autonomous control technology.

• By 2015, unconventional ways to earn and exchange money will allow another 125 million people to participate in the global economy.

• By 2016, a number of patients will be affected or at risk from the failure of sophisticated electronic medical devices.

• By 2016, national governments will have lowered directives to institutions to reduce curricula under the influence of the big data growth phenomenon.

• By 2015, the use of natural-language processing (NLP) systems among large medical organizations will become the norm in English-speaking countries, which will affect the quality of documentation, reports and research.

• By 2015, successful organizations will be turning to information integration as one of their main competitive advantages.

• By 2016, half of U.S. energy consumers will have access to standardized energy expenditure data, but only 20% will use that data.

• By the end of 2014, the car insurance market under the pay-as-you-drive model will significantly increase in volume and will amount to 10% of the annual premiums in this sector.

• By 2017, more than 50% of the media will sell advertising through specialized agencies based on data on its effectiveness.

• By 2014, less than 2% of users worldwide will use NFC for mobile payments.

• More than 50% of organizations that will provide cloud government services in 2015 will stop providing them by 2017.

• By 2015, 50% of Tier 1 consumer goods manufacturers are investing in tech startups with the goal of gaining access to the booming B2C technology market.

• During 2014, enterprise spending on corporate software will grow by 25% of current values ​ ​ as a result of the spread of intelligent operating technologies.

• By 2016, at least 25% of discrete manufacturers will implement 3D printing technologies for the production of parts.

2011: Life-changing IT innovations in the next 5 years from IBM

IBM Corporation officially unveiled in December 2011 the IBM Five in Five, the sixth annual list of innovations that can dramatically affect our lives, work and entertainment in the next five years.

IBM has officially unveiled the IBM Five in Five, the sixth annual list of innovations that can dramatically affect our lives, work and entertainment in the next five years:

• Electricity for home use can be generated independently.
• Passwords will not be needed.
• Reading thoughts is no longer science fiction.
• Inequality in the digital world will disappear.
• Spam will become the most important mail.

The list is based on an analysis of trends in the market and in society, taking into account new technologies that are being developed in IBM laboratories around the world and provide the possibility of these transformations.

IBM continuously reduces the distance between science fiction and reality. Here's how five technologies will affect our future:

Electricity for home use can be generated independently

Any movement and heat generation - whether walking, running, cycling, heating up a computer or even moving water through water pipes - generates energy that can be conserved.

Improving technologies in the field of renewable energy resources will allow you to accumulate kinetic energy, which is now simply lost, and use it at home, at work and in public places. Imagine miniature devices that are attached to the spokes of bicycle wheels so that you, pedaling, at the same time charge the battery. It's nice to know that not only did you get to your destination, but you also provided energy for a couple of lighting fixtures at home.

The energy of all different backgrounds is created everywhere. IBM scientists in Ireland are studying and trying to minimize the environmental effects of converting ocean wave energy into electricity (details in English can be found at: http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/35814.wss).

Passwords will not be needed

Our biological characteristics make us who we are and will soon be used to protect personal data.

You no longer have to invent and remember countless passwords to all kinds of resources. Imagine: to use an ATM without any risk, you just need to give your name or look at a tiny sensor that recognizes a unique pattern of the retina. When you check your balance with your mobile phone or tablet computer, you'll be protected in the same way.

Each person has unique biological characteristics - a set of biometric data. Based on facial features, retinal pattern and voice sound, the software will be able to compile a unique Internet password available only to the owner of the corresponding DNA.

Using so-called multifactor biometric identification, intelligent systems will collect all this information in real time and check its authenticity and compliance with the user's profile each time they try to access the data. Of course, the decision on what data to provide to the system remains with you.

Reading thoughts is no longer science fiction

Houdini, Luke Skywalker, the X-Men: Reading thoughts has always been just a fiction for science fiction lovers. But it could soon become a reality.

Scientists are IBM looking for a way to establish a connection between the brain and electronics, such as a computer or smartphone. To call someone or move the cursor on the screen, you just need to think about it.

Bioinformatics experts have created headsets with advanced sensors to read the electrical activity of the brain. They recognize facial expression and the level of excitement and concentration by reading a user's thoughts without physical effort on their part.

The gaming and entertainment industry will adopt the technology within five years. In addition, doctors will be able to use it in studies of brain activity and even, possibly, in rehabilitation after a stroke and the study of various brain disorders - for example, autism.

Inequality in the digital world will disappear

With globalization, prosperity and economic growth are increasingly dependent on access to information. Thanks to the development of mobile technologies, differences in access levels will be significantly reduced over the next five years.

There are 7 billion people in the world today. In five years, 5.6 billion mobile devices will be sold, that is, 80% of the current population of the planet will have them.

Mobile communications are getting cheaper, and those who do not have a high income have more and more opportunities.

In India, IBM Corporation, using voice technology and mobile devices, provided illiterate villagers with the opportunity to exchange information through audio messages recorded on the phone. Now they know when to fertilize the soil, taking into account the weather forecast, when doctors will come to the city and where it is most profitable to sell crops and other products.

Mobile technologies will be increasingly used to access critical information and provide people with useful services through new solutions and business models such as mobile commerce and remote health care.

Spam will become the most important mail

Consider how often we are hit by torrents of unnecessary and annoying advertising. It is possible that this situation will change soon.

In five years, ads you didn't subscribe to will perhaps reflect your individual interests and preferences so accurately that spam will actually disappear. At the same time, spam filters are being improved to the point where no one else can bother you in vain.

Once tickets for your favourite band's concert on your only free night this week are on sale, the system will book them and let you know. You can immediately buy them directly from your mobile device. If you're planning a trip and a blizzard is expected along your way, you'll find out and maybe take a different route.

IBM is developing technology to analyze and integrate real-time data on all aspects of your life from social media and other sites. Based on such an analysis, information will be prepared that will be useful to you. You will trust the collection of the necessary information - be it news, sports or politics - to the appropriate technological systems, which should simplify decision-making.

2000-2009: Social media, search engines, e-commerce

• Mobile and a little later wireless communication
• First social networks and instant messengers
• Mobile PCs, electronics miniaturization
• The development of portable devices and the first introduction of gadgets,
• LCD Monitors and LCD TVs
• Search engines (although the birth was in the mid-1990s), but expansion in the early 2000s
• E-commerce, although the main phase of expansion began in 2014, strengthening from 2020.
• Online video (expansion) YouTube
• Online payments
• Online games
• Cyber security
• Wikipedia and access to online libraries.

2009: First developments for self-driving cars

Self-driving cars (2000s). Distribution since 2010 Transformation transport and Logistics.

2008: Invention of blockchain and cryptocurrencies

2008 - Blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Distribution since 2010 Changes in finance, data security.

2007: Smartphones

Smartphones (2000s). Combination of functions, computer telephone, media.

1990-1999: Computers, Internet, primary digitalization

• Personal computers have become massively available
• Internet and e-mail, including Internet technologies, protocols, etc.
• Graphical OS interface, software development, object-oriented programming
• Digital Music and Video (CD/DVD), enabling the development of digital content
• 3D Graphics Development
• Development of storage technologies.

1997: The Birth of Virtual and Augmented Reality

Virtual and augmented reality (1990s). Distribution since 2010. Transformation of entertainment, education, design.

1988: Quantum Computing

Quantum computing (1980s). Distribution from 2020. Revolutionary computing and cryptography.

1978: Digital Photography

Digital photography (1970s). Development in 1990-2010 Simplification of image shooting and processing.

1977: Cryptography

1977 - Cryptography

1968: Internet

Internet (1960s). Development in 1990-2010 transformed communications, trade and access to information.

1958: Integrated circuits

1958 - Integrated circuits. Development in 1970-2000 contributed to the development of electronics and computers.

1947: Transistor

1947 - Transistor

1946: Computer

1946 - Computer. Development in 1970-2000, the second phase of expansion from 2010 to the present (mobile PC). Changed data processing, management, and manufacturing processes.

1943: Artificial Intelligence

1943 - Artificial intelligence. Development since 2010. Transforms decision making, data analytics, and automation.

See also

• IT (Global Market)
• IT market of Russia
• Europe's IT Market

Notes