Schumpeter's Theory of Waves of Innovation
According to the theory of the Austrian economist Schumpeter, innovation comes into our lives in waves. The first wave began in 1785 and lasted 60 years. This time was marked by the use of water energy and the rapid development of metallurgy.
In 2020, the fifth wave of innovation has ended and the world is on the verge of a new one, based on artificial intelligence, drones and environmentally friendly technologies.
According to Schumpeter, each wave is 5 years shorter than the previous one. The current one will last 25 years, the next - 20, 15, 10 and 5.
Innovation in Information Technology
White Paper: Global IT Market Trends
Innovations in communication technologies
Main article: Trends in global telecom
Innovations in medicine
Main article: Innovations in medicine
Chronicle
2024
Post-quantum cryptography and deepfake protection. 6 major technotrends for 2025
Artificial intelligence systems and quantum computing promise to revolutionize various segments of the global IT market. Early adoption and implementation of such decisions is key to mature organizations shaping future strategies. This is stated in a study by Info-Tech Research Group, the results of which TAdviser got acquainted with in early November 2024. Analysts identify six main technotrends for 2025.
1. Expert AI models
Such systems simulate the work of human specialists in certain areas. These AI models are designed to solve complex problems that require significant knowledge and experience. Organizations can implement expert solutions in many ways: through collaboration with industry-specific AI developers, or through additional training and fine-tuning of the model based on specific data. The use of such systems allows you to increase efficiency, reduce risks and solve some problems inherent in traditional basic AI models.
2. Sovereignty of AI
The introduction of AI provides many advantages, but at the same time creates certain risks associated with possible copyright infringement, bias, deterioration of data privacy, etc. This creates tension between organizations implementing AI technologies and providers of relevant solutions. In such a situation, privacy and security are the most important factor in determining which AI generative systems organizations invest in. In addition, economic efficiency, accuracy and reliability of information are important.
Quantum computers have enormous potential in solving complex problems that traditional computer systems cannot. Among them, the authors of the study call the development of new generation drugs, the search for promising materials with unique properties, the detection of fraud in financial institutions, etc. However, there are several deterrents. In particular, quantum computing is not able to completely replace classical computing. There are many bottlenecks for using the new technology. In addition, the integration of quantum computing systems with classical ones is difficult.
4. Post-quantum cryptography
Modern cryptographic systems become potentially vulnerable to hacking using quantum computers. Post-quantum cryptography will solve the problem. We are talking about next-generation encryption algorithms based on complex mathematical problems, during the processing of which quantum computers will not receive a computational advantage.
5. AI avatars
These are humanoid virtual characters created using computer images and various AI methods and applications. In 2025, users are expected to begin increasingly encountering AI avatars in their daily lives. Sometimes these digital persons will be twins or clones of real people. In other cases, they will be entirely fictional creations.
6. Deepfake protection
AI tools can be used by attackers to create deepfakes: cybercriminals fake people's appearance and voice to implement various fraudulent schemes. Therefore, companies should implement appropriate protections, such as multifactor authentication or watermarks that confirm the authenticity of content.[1]
Key Technology Trends of the Future
Artificial intelligence and quantum technology are among the main technological trends of the future in. Russia This was announced on November 7, 2024 by the First Deputy Chairman. Governments of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov
Among other important areas, the Deputy Prime Minister named robotization and unmanned vehicles, as well as the formation of conditions for deep space exploration. In addition, the list of main technotrends includes: the development of genetics, the biopharmaceutical industry and personalized medicine, the management of thermonuclear fusion and the development of methods for reducing the technogenic impact on the Earth's biosphere.
According to Manturov, the listed technologies and solutions will radically change the industrial and socio-cultural landscape and will become key drivers for improving the duration and quality of life of citizens, as well as slowing down environmental degradation and biodiversity conservation. At the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister pointed out the importance of international cooperation in terms of the implementation of projects in these areas.
 | Russia expects to become one of the key participants in such cooperation for the future. And for this we have experience of effective work on global scientific and social projects of the modern world, - said Manturov. |  |
Among such areas, the Deputy Prime Minister listed the issues of biosafety, molecular biology, the development of neurotechnologies and genome research. Important tasks are the realization of the potential of nuclear medicine and photonics, the study of high energies and the structure of new materials, the conduct of fundamental space research, including the unraveling of the emergence of the Universe. Russia is ready to develop projects in the relevant areas "with all interested international partners."[2]
Top 10 Strategic Technotrends for 2025
On October 21, 2024, the analytical company Gartner announced a list of 10 main strategic technological trends for 2025. The report covers those areas that experts believe will lead to significant change and open up new opportunities for CIOs and other executives. The IT market, in particular, will be significantly influenced by the means of artificial intelligence of various types and next-generation computing.
| | The main strategic technological trends of this year cover the fundamental principles and risks of AI, the new frontiers of computing and the synergy of man and machine. Tracking these trends will help IT leaders shape the future of their organizations, "says Gene Alvarez, vice president of Gartner. | |
1. AI Agents (Agenic AI)
Artificial intelligence agents are autonomous intelligent systems that are able to perform certain tasks without human intervention. They use machine learning to collect and process vast amounts of real-time data. Agents simplify and automate complex operations, improve business efficiency, and improve customer service. In addition, such systems help companies reduce unnecessary costs associated with process inefficiencies, human errors, and manual labor. Gartner predicts that at least 15% of day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously with AI agents by 2028, up from 0% in 2024.
2. AI regulatory platforms
AI Trust, Risk and Security Management (TRiSM) is one of the key strategic technology trends, according to Gartner. We are talking about a comprehensive program to proactively identify and reduce the risks associated with the implementation and use of AI. Gartner analysts believe that by 2028, organizations implementing such solutions will face ethical incidents related to AI, 40% less often than companies that do not use such practices.
3. Defending against misinformation
This is a new set of technologies that aim to "form specialized systems to ensure integrity, assess authenticity, prevent falsification and track the spread of harmful information." It is expected that by 2028, 50% enterprises will begin to introduce products, services or functions specially designed to solve the problems of protection against disinformation, compared with less than 5% in 2024.
Modern cryptographic systems become potentially vulnerable to hacking using quantum computers. Post-quantum cryptography is designed to solve the problem. We are talking about next-generation encryption algorithms built on complex mathematical problems. When they are processed, quantum computers will not receive a computational advantage.
5. 'Invisible'intelligence in the environment
The idea is to integrate AI deeper into people's daily lives and workflows. For this, numerous inexpensive sensors and smart tags will be used, collecting all kinds of indicators and providing flexible tracking capabilities. As examples of using the technology, an analysis of stocks in retail to trade and logistics of perishable products is named.
6. Energy efficient computing
Compute-intensive applications such as AI training, modeling, optimization and rendering will contribute the most to organizations' carbon footprint due to high energy consumption. Against this background, companies will focus on introducing new energy-efficient computing technologies based, in particular, on optical solutions. In addition, specialized accelerators optimized for certain tasks will help reduce energy costs.
7. Hybrid Computing
Against the backdrop of the rapid development of the IT industry, new computing architectures are constantly emerging, based on central processors, graphics accelerators, specialized integrated circuits, quantum chips, etc. Hybrid platforms combine a variety of computing and networking components to solve complex, demanding tasks. This approach will increasingly be used to create high-performance, efficient systems designed to handle demanding applications.
We are talking about working with three-dimensional spatial structures. This allows you to consider geometric properties of objects, such as location, shape, and size. Spatial computing combines digital and physical worlds using virtual VR (), augmented (), AR and mixed (MR) reality technologies.
9. Multi-functional robots
Such machines will be able to efficiently solve various problems, unlike traditional robots, which are specially designed to perform strictly defined operations. It is assumed that multifunctional robots will be able to work side by side with humans in various conditions.
10. Neurological improvement
Specialized systems that read and decode brain activity, in the future, according to Gartner analysts, will help improve a person's cognitive abilities. Such technologies have significant potential in three main areas: advanced training, next-generation marketing and operational performance.[3]
Named the top 10 most promising technologies in 2024
On June 25, 2024, the World Economic Forum (WEF) announced a fresh rating of the 10 most promising technologies that can have the greatest impact on people's lives, as well as on the development of the IT industry and the scientific sphere. Specialists from Frontiers, an international open platform for scientific articles, took part in the preparation of the report. The list was formed on the basis of a survey of experts from 29 countries around the world.
1. Artificial intelligence for scientific discovery
Although AI has been used in research for many years, the latest advances in deep learning, generative services and basic models take scientific work to the next level. Experts create and use large language models to study various literature, brainstorm new hypotheses, analyze huge amounts of data, etc. All this contributes to the making of breakthrough discoveries.
2. Privacy Enhancers
Access to increasingly large datasets is transforming research, discovery and innovation. Concerns about privacy, security and sovereignty, however, limit how information can be used. Synthetic data based on advances in AI removes many limitations when dealing with sensitive data.
3. Reconfigurable smart surfaces
The concept involves the use of metamaterials, intelligent algorithms and advanced signal processing to turn conventional walls and surfaces into "smart" components for wireless communication systems. This increases data rates, improves energy efficiency, and reduces delays.
4. High-altitude communication systems
The use of aircraft, airships and balloons can increase access to communication services in remote and hard-to-reach regions. The development of such systems is facilitated by the emergence of solar panels with improved efficiency, light composite materials, autonomous avionics, etc.
5. Integrated Sensing and Communication
This model provides for combining the capabilities of sensing and communication in a single system, which facilitates the simultaneous collection and transmission of data. Thus, environmental monitoring tools for air and water quality, soil moisture and weather analysis can be integrated into standard communication platforms.
6. Immersive technologies for building the world
Digital twins, virtual and augmented reality systems can be used to model urban development, create infrastructure and improve the lives of citizens.
7. Elastocaloric effect
This is a change in material temperature caused by adiabatic stretching/compression. Elastocaloric heat pumps are an innovative technology that can reduce the energy required for heating and cooling several times.
8. Microbes that capture carbon
Microorganisms that convert harmful emissions into healthy products will help mitigate the effects of climate change. At the same time, it is possible to obtain various products with significant market potential, such as fuel, fertilizers and animal feed.
9. Genomics in Transplantation
The ability to understand and accurately edit the genome in combination with new immunosuppressive drugs opens up new horizons in terms of organ transplantation. This will help save millions of lives around the world.
10. Alternative animal feed
Feeds derived from insects, algae and food waste provide a viable alternative to traditional foods that are used in animal husbandry.[4]
10 breakthrough technologies that will change life in 2024 named
On January 8, 2024, MIT Technology Review magazine, owned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled an annual ranking of 10 breakthrough technologies that are expected to have a significant impact on the daily lives and work activities of people around the world. The list includes important technological advances in the field of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, computing, consumer products, etc.
Artificial intelligence for everything
It is noted that 2023 was the year of artificial intelligence. Generative services such as ChatGPT became widespread in record time and changed the direction of development of many segments of the global IT industry. MIT Technology Review says that never before has such a radical new technology turned from an experimental prototype into a consumer product so quickly and on such a scale. In 2024, the development of AI services will continue at a rapid pace: they will be actively implemented in both the commercial and consumer sectors.
Super efficient solar cells
Panels combining traditional silicon with the latest perovskites could take solar cell efficiency to the next level. Perovskites absorb waves of light other than those absorbed by silicon elements. As a result, the overall efficiency of the panels is significantly increased.
In 2024, Apple begins selling the Vision Pro - its first mixed-reality headset. The company calls this gadget "the most advanced consumer electronics device ever created." It is expected that the novelty will allow you to rethink how people communicate and explore the surrounding space.
Weight Loss Products
The World Health Organization has called the global rise in obesity an epidemic. Drugs such as Munjaro and Vegovi will help to effectively combat this ailment. Evidence suggests they may even protect against heart attacks and strokes.
Geothermal energy
In 2024, according to MIT Technology Review, the introduction of new technologies in the field of geothermal power will continue. Advanced drilling techniques will allow systems to be deployed where this was not possible before. As a result, the production of clean energy will increase.
Chipplets
Processor manufacturers are faced with increasing difficulties in increasing the density of the basic elements of integrated circuits - transistors. The solution to the problem is the use of chiplets, that is, mini-chips that are assembled in a single case to form a complex product. In 2024, it is expected that this approach will continue to be actively used by developers.
CRISPR-based therapy
At the end of 2023, the UK was the first in the world to approve therapy using the CRISPR gene editing system. The new drug is designed to treat sickle cell disease and β-thalassemia. In the future, this approach is expected to effectively combat severe diseases.
Exaflops computers
In 2024, the commissioning of new super-powered supercomputers is expected, whose performance is at exaflops level - quintillion of floating point operations per second. In particular, the construction of one of these complexes begins in Europe: a system called Jupiter will be located at the Juelich Research Center (FZJ) in Germany.
Heat pumps
Such systems can both cool and heat buildings, and their wider adoption can significantly reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere.
Alternatives to Twitter
After Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022 and renamed the service X, millions of users around the world began looking for alternatives. Decentralized systems are one option.[5]
2021: Leaders in investment in high-tech companies named
The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics on August 3, 2022 shared the results of a study with TAdviser, during which he assessed the scale of investment activity in the high tech and compared them with the contribution of countries to the global pool of leading organizations and personalities in the field of science, technology and creative industries.
In terms of total investments in high-tech companies in 2021, they are in first place USA ($353.8 billion), followed by (China 91.3), (Great Britain 54.9), (India 41.7) and (Australia 25.5). Collectively, companies from these five countries account for 72.9% of investments; at the same time, the United States is the largest share (45.4%). The second is China (11.7%). Russia is in 38th place with an investment of $0.8 billion (only high-tech companies registered in the Russian Federation are taken into account in the calculations) (Fig. 1).
Diagram: ISIEZ HSE
HSE ISIEZ researchers have identified a clear link between the scale financings and presence of both innovative companies and leading organizations and personalities in the field of science and creative industries (Figure 2). Thus, the top 5 countries in terms of investment in high-tech (USA, China, Great Britain, India, Australia) account for 60.4% of companies with the highest research and development costs, 78.9% of unicorn companies, 65.9% of highly cited scientists, 64.8% of laureates Nobel and Fields awards, 46% of creative industry leaders.
At the same time, in a number of countries, the number of leaders in the knowledge economy exceeds the volume of investments, among them: Taiwan and Japan - in part of the largest innovative companies; Russia, France and Switzerland - in terms of Nobel and Fields Prize winners; Russia, France and Italy - in terms of the leaders of creative industries, China - in terms of the largest innovative companies and unicorns.
As for Russia, the talents (demand) in the country so far outweigh the financial capabilities (supply). Russia ranks 7th in the world in terms of the number of living Nobel and Fields Prize winners, 18th in terms of creative industry leaders and 35th in highly cited scientists. Data from various studies show that the possible weak point of Russia is large corporate systems that can find, disclose and monetize technical and creative talents, provide them with competitive conditions for self-realization.
The volume of investments is calculated on the basis of international. databases Crunchbase 133 countries fell into the orbit of the study, which accounted for 98.4% of all transactions in the high-tech market.[6]
2020:10 technologies with the potential to change the future named
At the end of February 2020, MIT Technology Review magazine published a list of ten technologies that in the coming years will be able to change the future.
1. Secure Internet
The Internet based on quantum technologies should provide secure communication. The Delft University of Technology team is already building a network connecting four cities in the Netherlands that simply cannot be hacked. Scientists have learned to transmit pairs of photons over fiber-optic cables in such a way as to fully protect the information encoded in them. The Chinese team used the technology to build a 2,000 km network backbone between Beijing and Shanghai, but the project uses in part classical components that periodically disrupt quantum connectivity and pose a risk of hacking.
2. Hyperpersonalized medicine
Hyperpersonalized medicine is genetic interventions designed for a single patient. New classes of drugs can be adapted to human genes, and such means will give hope to people with very rare and previously incurable diseases caused by various DNA mutations. Unfortunately, it is not yet clear who will be able to finance such research and development.
3. Digital money
The less ordinary cash is used, the fewer transactions occur without intermediaries. Meanwhile, digital currency technology could shake the global financial system. For example, Chinese leaders see the threat that to cryptocurrency Libra they are preparing to release - Facebook its release can increase the already disproportionate impact on the USA global financial system. Perhaps in response China it will promote the digital yuan internationally, but one way or another, the release of cryptocurrencies becomes a geopolitical event.
4. Anti-aging drugs
The first anti-aging drugs, called senolytics, have already begun to be evaluated in humans. These drugs do not yet allow life to be extended, but can potentially cure certain diseases, including cancer, heart disease and dementia, slowing or reversing fundamental aging processes. These drugs destroy cells that accumulate with age -- they create low-level inflammation that suppresses normal cellular repair mechanisms and creates a toxic environment for neighboring cells. The results of the first clinical trials are expected in the second half of 2020.
5. Drugs discovered by AI
Bringing a new drug to the market costs an average of about $2.5 billion. One of the reasons for this cost is the difficulty of finding promising molecules. However, machine learning tools can now investigate large databases of existing molecules and their properties, using the information obtained to assess the potential drug capabilities. This approach can significantly speed up and reduce the cost of finding new drug candidates.
6. Satellite Mega Constellations
Now corporations can create, launch and operate tens of thousands of satellites in orbit at affordable prices at the same time. The first 120 satellites Starlink were launched in 2019, and the company plans to launch batches of 60 satellites every two weeks starting in January 2020. OneWeb will launch more than 30 satellites at the end of 2020. If these plans succeed, soon thousands of satellites in tandem will be able to provide access to Internet even the poorest and most remote corners of the planet. However, the collision of several satellites can lead to a serious catastrophe and turn the orbit around the Earth into a landfill.
7. Quantum supremacy
Google has provided the first proof that a quantum computer is superior to a classical computer. Thus, in the future, quantum computers will be able to solve problems that no classical machine can cope with, for example, hacking modern cryptographic codes or modeling the exact behavior of molecules in order to identify new drugs and materials.
However, Google has only proved true to the concept, now the company's goal is to assemble machines with enough qubits to solve useful problems. This is a difficult task, because the more qubits you have, the more difficult it is to maintain their quantum state.
8. Small-volume AI
In search of more powerful algorithms, researchers are using increasing amounts of data and computing power, as well as relying on centralized cloud services. This limits the speed and privacy of AI applications. However, when using new generation AI chips, devices no longer need to transfer information to the cloud. The researchers promise to increase processing power under limited physical parameters, as well as train and run AI with much less energy.
9. Differential privacy
Differential privacy is a mathematical method that ensures the privacy of a set of anonymized data by adding "noise." This method is already used by Apple and Facebook to collect aggregate data without identifying specific users. This method allows point-by-point "distortion" of individual data so that it cannot be associated with a particular person, but allows you to save the general group indicators necessary for statistical calculations.
10. Attribution of climate change
Obtaining detailed satellite data allows researchers to study natural systems, and increasing processing power means they can create more highly accurate simulations and conduct many more virtual experiments. Recently, researchers confirmed the role of climate change in the development of extreme weather and are now ready to talk about the risks that humanity may face with global warming.[7]
2012: CRISPR and gene editing
CRISPR and gene editing (2012). Breakthrough in genetics and biotechnology.
2008: Artificial protein synthesis
Artificial protein synthesis (2000s). Distribution 2010-present. Perspectives in biotechnology and materials science.
1959-2000
1959 - Nanotechnology
1961 - The first man in space (Russia)
1973 - Genetic Engineering
1977 - Renewable energy (1970s) Distribution since 2000. Sustainable energy sources, reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
1978 - Biotechnology and genetic engineering (1970s). Distribution since 1990. Breakthroughs in medicine, agriculture, pharmaceuticals.
1984 - String Theory
1987 - Nanotechnology (1980s). Distribution since 2000 Create materials with unique properties.
1988 - 3D printing (1980s). Distribution since 2010. New production and design methods.
1996 - Mammal Cloning
2000 - Human genome
1957: Space Technology
Space Technology (1957) - Development in 1960-1990 expanded understanding of space, satellite communications, and navigation.
1938-1953
1938 - Nuclear fission (Germany)
1947 - Nuclear Power (Russia )
1953 - Structure of DNA
1915: General relativity
1915 - General relativity
1907: Plastics
1907 - Plastics. Development in 1930-1970 fundamental impact on almost all types of physical production.
1905
1905 - Special relativity
1902: Aviation
1902 - Aviation (biplane glider). Distribution in 1930-1970 broke new ground in passenger and freight traffic.
1903 - Chaos Theory
1905 - Special relativity
1896: Radioactivity
1896 - Radioactivity
1885: Automobile
1885 - Gas powered car. The distribution of cars 1910-1950 transformed transportation, urban planning and lifestyle.
1860-1869: Electricity, dynamite, Mendeleev table
1860 - Carbon filament lamp. The introduction of electricity took place in the 1870s, active expansion from 1880 to 1930. It revolutionized production, the beginning of the industrialization stage, the impact on transport, lighting and communications. One of the most significant implementations in human history.
1867 - Dynamite (Sweden)
1869 - Periodic table of Mendeleev (Russia)
50 - 1859
100 - Steam Power
876 - Zero and decimal numbers
1202 - Algebra
1435 - Perspective in Art
1439 - Printing Press (Germany)
1543 - Anatomy
1600 - Magnetism
1673 - Microscope
1774 - Combustion
1796 - Vaccines
1799 - Electric battery
1808 - Theory of atoms
1820 - Electromagnetism
1822 - Difference engine
1828 - Synthetic substance
1859 - Theory of Evolution (Britain)
3500 - 300 BC: Wheel, writing, astronomy, geometry
3500 BC - Wheel
3200 BC: First Writing Created in Egypt
3000 - Astronomy
1000 - Greek alphabet
320 - Botany
300 - Euclidean geometry
20 thousand hp: Bow and arrows
20,000 - Bow and arrows [8]]
35 thousand hp: The appearance of the account
35,000 years ago - Account
1.45 million hp: Development of fire
1,450,000 years ago - The development of fire by ancient people was a turning point in human social evolution, which allowed people to diversify protein and carbohydrate foods with the opportunity to cook them, develop their activity at night, and protect themselves from predators.
2.5 million hp: First stone tools
2,500,000 years ago - the first industry of stone tools [9]].
Notes
- ↑ Tech Trends 2025
- ↑ Denis Manturov took part in the international symposium "Creating the Future"
- ↑ Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2025
- ↑ Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2024
- ↑ MIT Technology Review releases 2024 list of 10 Breakthrough Technologies
- ↑ Smart money market
- ↑ 10 Breakthrough Technologies
- ↑ [Leonid Vishnyatsky. Neanderthals: The History of Failed Humanity, 2010
- ↑ [Anton Rodionov, 2018
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