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2023: Russia delivered record volume of coal to Turkey - 27.5 million tons
At the end of 2023, the total supply of Russian thermal coal to Turkey soared by 46% compared to the previous year and amounted to 27.5 million. This is evidenced by data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK).
As Vedomosti writes with reference to TUIK materials, the share of Russian energy coal in Turkey's imports in 2023 increased to 70% from 48%. This share and the volume of exports of Russian thermal coal to Turkey in 2023 turned out to be record, the newspaper notes.
A significant increase in the supply of Russian thermal coal to Turkey is explained by the fact that this resource is sold at a price favorable for Turkish buyers. So, according to Neft Research, the energy carrier was supplied at a discount to average market prices on the basis of CFR ("delivery to the port") Turkey, in 2023 the discounts were 7-24%.
The publication also says that Russian coal continues to displace Colombian coal from the Turkish market, whose supplies to the Mediterranean country by the end of 2023 decreased 1.7 times, to 6.3 million tons. The share of coal from Colombia in Turkey's imports decreased from 27% to 16%.
The growth of Russian coal exports to Turkey took place against the background of the reorientation of exports to new markets after the introduction of the EU embargo on its supply. Additional volumes of Russian coal going to Turkey, according to Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the securities markets analytics department of Alfa-Bank, were redirected there from the European market. FG Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko believes that coal can also be supplied to Turkey from those volumes that previously went from Russia to South Korea.
According to forecasts of power expert Kirill Rodionov, in the future the share of coal in Turkey's electricity generation will be reduced due to the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, as well as as as a result of Turkey's development of the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea.[1]
2022
Decrease in charcoal exports by 26% to 30.7 thousand tons
By the end of 2022, the export of charcoal from Russia decreased by 25.8% compared to the volume of one year ago and amounted to approximately 30.7 thousand tons. Such figures are given in a study released in December 2023 by the analytical company BusinesStat.
According to experts, the supply of charcoal from the Russian Federation abroad in 2022 turned out to be minimal over the past five years. At the same time, exports have been declining since 2019, as evidenced by BusinesStat statistics.
In 2021, the volume of export supplies to China sharply decreased. Then relations between China and Australia escalated, and in response, China banned customs clearance of coal from Australia. The bet was made on Russian coal, but it was not possible to establish stable large supplies due to logistics problems. As a result, China allowed the customs clearance of Australian coal, which has accumulated a significant amount over the year, and the need for supplies from Russia has disappeared, analysts say.
They note that in 2022, the western direction became inaccessible for the export of charcoal from Russia. After declining supplies to European Union China, countries accounted for more than half of shipments from the country. In 2022, restrictive measures were introduced for the supply EU of products of the Russian timber industry, which also includes charcoal. As a result of this situation, the main buyer of Russian charcoal was, Turkey deliveries to this country in 2022 reached 45.4% of total exports from Russia.
According to Kpler materials, for the entire 2022, marine exports of metallurgical coal, which includes both coking coal and anthracite, from Russia amounted to 36 million tons.[2]
Formal decrease in exports by 7.6% amid the conflict in Ukraine
Coal supplies from Russia for export in 2022 decreased by 7.6%, taking into account EU sanctions during the conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, many cases of smuggling of Russian coal to Europe through the Baltic states were recorded. Coal was marked as Kazakh or Kyrgyz. In total, Latvian customs opened 180 criminal cases in connection with evading sanctions. Nevertheless, no serious volumes of smuggling were noted. Previously, Kazakh coal did not bother at all through Latvia, but in 2022 coal went through Russia in transit.
Tripling coal exports to India
In 2022, Russia exported 8.43 million tons of thermal coal to India, which is 3.6 times more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by data from the Indian industry consulting agency Coalmint, which was released in January 2023.
As Vedomosti writes with reference to the conclusions of experts, the supply of Russian coal increased due to a more favorable price compared to South African and Australian fuel. In 2021, supplies of Russian energy coal to India amounted to 2.35 million tons.
The newspaper recalls that in early April 2022, the European Union included in the fifth package of sanctions due to the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine an embargo on the import of Russian coal. As a result, Russian coal companies are seeking to redirect volumes to the Asian market. At the same time, Russian coal miners are forced to sell products abroad at a discount. In July 2022, when the cost of energy coal on the global market exceeded $400/t, discounts on Russian coal, according to the Center for Energy Development, reached $200/t relative to regional benchmarks, and in October increased to 70%.
The share of Russian coal in Indian imports in 2022 was insignificant. The country purchased 161.8 million tons of coal in 2022, while 107.5 million tons came from Indonesia (+ 44.8%). At the same time, Coalmint expects that in the coming years India will reduce imports due to the intention to increase its own production.
Alfa-Bank Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the securities markets analytics department, suggested that Russia will be able to increase supplies to India thanks to discounts, the cancellation of which he does not expect in the foreseeable future. At the same time, he noted that if world coal prices fall, then supplies to this market may become unprofitable.
Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Technologies of the Fuel and Energy Complex, recalled that supplies to India are inevitable in connection with the EU embargo, but the underdevelopment of the infrastructure of the Eastern landfill (Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Railway) remains a deterrent.[3]
South Korea coal exports up 24%
Russian coal miners, through the provision of discounts, increased deliveries to South Korea by 24% in 2022, displacing the main player in this market - Australia. The growth of supplies was facilitated by a short transport arm from the Far East, as well as relatively affordable freight rates, which periodically allowed cargo to be sent to South Korea even from the ports of the European part of the Russian Federation.
Shifting coal exports from Europe to Asia
Europe closed its doors to coal from the Russian Federation after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, but new buyers were found in Turkey, Africa, China and India, Bloomberg analysts write. But Russian coal is sold at a discount.
Supplies of Russian coal to Europe in August, when the coal embargo came into force, fell by 77% in monthly terms, to 1.3 million tons.
To replace Russian coal, European consumers have multiplied their fuel imports from South Africa and Colombia, which are more expensive than supplies from the Russian Federation.
By early September 2022, the base price for coal had risen above $350 a tonne, about three times the price of a year ago.
2021
Russia exporter No. 3 thermal coal in the world
China and South Korea are the largest coal consumers from Russia
For 2021 Russia , it sends most of its coal to Asia, as it Europe avoids this fuel.
Russia is the largest supplier of coal to European countries
At the same time Russia , it remains the largest supplier of coal to the country. Europe
2019: Russia is EU's biggest coal supplier with 47% share
Notes
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