Federal Loan Bonds
Main item: OFZ (Federal Loan Bonds)
2023
Public debt - 20% of GDP
Increasing domestic public debt to stabilize the economy
At the beginning of 2023, Russia is making the only correct decision in terms of stabilization macroeconomic measures against the background of a global confrontation with unfriendly countries - an increase in domestic public debt.
The 2022 crisis at a qualitative level differs from 2009, 2015-2016 and 2020, when budget management existed in the paradigm of "continuous fiscal consolidation" and fears of getting into debt, even at the cost of a macroeconomic blow.
The system of values and the hierarchy of budgetary security produced an installation - "public debt is bad, accumulation is good," which restrained development and in crises only aggravated the situation.
There were pluses here, too. Low efficiency of budget spending, echo of default 1998, dependence on international institutions and creditors created meaningful motives for accumulation and reduction of obligations. This led to the fact that the national debt to GDP in Russia was and remains the lowest among large countries, and the accumulated cash is sufficient to finance urgent tasks.
But in 2023, there is no other way to keep the economy but aggressive fiscal pumping. If the state restrained spending in 2022, GDP would collapse by 8-10%, and not minus 2-2.5%.
This is normal, the United States and the EU did this in crises, shifting private debt and investment initiative to the state.
As of March 1, 2023, the government has 6.5 trillion of liquid reserves in the NWF (excluding gold - 4.1 trillion) and about 8 trillion more in Russian banks, where 5.3 trillion in liquid deposits (as of February 1, March apparently less). In total, at least 11.8 trillion rubles of liquid assets are at the disposal.
The external market is cut off, but there is an opportunity to occupy inside. In 2020, net borrowing was 4.6 trillion, in 2021 - 1.73 trillion, and in 2022 - 2.3 trillion, where the entire increase in debt occurred in November-December.
Over 90% of OFZ purchases are formed by the largest Russian banks. In 2023, about 2.5 trillion rubles of potentially free liquidity in banks could theoretically be distributed for these purposes, the Spydell Finance channel wrote, and then already attract business and the population to OFZs.
As the last line of defense - direct redemption by the Central Bank or quasi-QE, when the Central Bank finances banks, and they buy OFZs.
2022
The volume of Russia's external public debt decreased to 4.039 trillion rubles
The volume of Russia's external public debt in 2022 decreased for the first time in three years. This is evidenced by the data of the Accounts Chamber, which were released in early March 2023.
It is reported that in 2022 the volume of Russia's external public debt amounted to 4.039 trillion rubles against 4.435 trillion rubles a year earlier. The Accounts Chamber also clarified the size of the total public debt of the Russian Federation for 2022 - 22.82 trillion rubles. Its share of GDP fell by one percentage point to 17.1%.
According to auditors, these indicators correspond to the "norm." According to experts, Russia's public debt is at a safe level, and its ratio to GDP was called the smallest among all the G20 participants. The Accounts Chamber explained that the public debt indicator of up to 20% of GDP is safe. The ministry added that in a number of developed countries, the level of public debt exceeds 100% of GDP and does not seriously affect the stable position of economies. The domestic public debt of Russia in 2022 reached 18.78 billion rubles.
According to the current (by the beginning of March 2023) law on the federal budget for 2023 and the planning period 2024-2025, an increase in the volume of Russian public debt is expected in 2023-2025. At the end of 2023, its volume will be about 25.369 trillion rubles, 2024 - 27.679 trillion rubles, 2025 - 29.94 trillion rubles. At the same time, in the total volume of public debt, the share of domestic debt in 2023 will be 81.6%, in 2024 - 82.4%, in 2025 - 83.5%. As a result, in the upcoming three-year period, the volume of Russian public debt will remain at a safe level (less than 20% of GDP). The upper limit of the domestic debt debt as of January 1, 2024 will be about 20.697 trillion rubles, the external one - $66.6 billion, or 63.4 billion euros. As of January 1, 2025 - 22.804 trillion rubles and $68.1 billion (or 63.1 billion euros), respectively[1] for the[2]
The national debt of Russia approached 23 trillion rubles
At the end of 2022, Russia's public debt amounted to 22.8 trillion rubles against 20.9 trillion rubles a year earlier. Such data in the Ministry of Finance led at the end of January 2023.
According to Vedomosti, citing a representative of the ministry, the cost of servicing the public debt in 2022 reached 1.33 trillion, which corresponds to 4% of the total federal budget spending.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the internal public debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2023 amounted to 18.781 trillion rubles (including state guarantees in Russian currency - 701.67 billion rubles), external - 4.039 trillion rubles, or $57.42 billion (including state guarantees in foreign currency - 1.382 trillion rubles, or $19.65 billion). Expenses for servicing domestic debt for 2022 are estimated at 1.191 trillion rubles, external - 139.5 billion rubles ($2 billion). In 2021, the total spending on public debt amounted to 1.084 trillion rubles.
The newspaper notes that, despite the growth of Russia's public debt, its attitude to the country's GDP is still one of the lowest in the world. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, the Russian public debt has grown within the expectations of the Ministry of Finance. At the end of the year, it amounted to approximately 15.6% of GDP. For comparison, the indicator of public debt to GDP of the Eurozone amounted to 93% (as of the end of the third quarter of 2022), in the United States - about 120%, in Japan - over 200%, said Natalya Safina, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Markets department of the CSR.
The growth of the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation to 22.8 trillion rubles can be considered purely symbolic, and one should not fear the costs of 1.33 trillion rubles for its maintenance, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti say. According to the law on the federal budget for 2023-2025, the national debt of the Russian Federation will increase for three years in a row and in 2025 will reach 29.9 trillion rubles.[3]
2021: 19.6 trillion rubles or 17% of GDP
In May 2021, the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation reported that Russia's public debt for the first quarter increased by 741.3 billion rubles and, as of April 1, reached 19,681,692,6 million rubles (17% GDP).
Domestic debt grew by 683 billion rubles, to 15.434 trillion rubles, and external debt decreased by $598.3 million, to $56.1 billion.
2020
The growth of the national debt of the Russian Federation by 39.9%, up to 19 trillion rubles
State debt Russia in 2020 increased by 5.4 trillion (rubles by 39.9%) and amounted to about 19 trillion rubles, or 17.8% of it. GDP This is evidenced by the data. Accounts Chamber
The domestic public debt of the Russian Federation grew during 2020 from 9.3 to 14.7 trillion rubles. Such growth is the most significant in the last 22 years.
First of all, issues of OFZ-PK - bonds with a variable coupon (from 1.7 to 4.7 trillion rubles), and OFZ-PD - bonds with a permanent coupon (from 6.4 to 8.1 trillion rubles) increased.
67% of the national debt fell on government securities denominated in foreign currency ($38.3 billion). Debt under state guarantees in foreign currency accounts for another 31% ($17.68 billion).
 | This year was extraordinary in terms of the volume of state borrowing, so the increase in public debt is not planned at the same pace in the coming years, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation said, commenting on the data of the Accounts Chamber on public debt. After all, the indicator of the safe level of public debt is not only its total volume, but also the reasonable cost of service, which does not reduce the availability of credit for private investment and does not displace other budget expenditures, as well as a balanced structure without payment peaks. |  |
According to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, due to the growing public debt, Russia was able to cover the largest budget deficit in the last 10 years (4.1 trillion rubles, or 3.8% of GDP). The government decided precisely by increasing the public debt to compensate for the shortfall in income, as well as finance the costs of combating COVID-19, supporting the population and business.
The expenses of the Russian budget for servicing the public debt for 2020 increased by 7.3% to 784.2 billion rubles.[4]
External public debt $56.8 billion (+ 23.6 %)
Russia's foreign currency external debt in 2020 increased by $1.9 billion to $56.8 billion (4.195 trillion rubles). In rubles, the figure increased by 799.7 billion, or 23.6%, and amounted to 4.2 trillion rubles.
Internal public debt of the Russian Federation - 14.8 trillion rubles
At the end of 2020, Russia's domestic public debt grew by 4.6 trillion rubles and reached 14.8 trillion rubles.
The debt of the federal government exceeded its liquid reserves
On August 13, 2020, it became known that Russia had again become a net debtor. The federal government's debt exceeded its liquid reserves.
As RBC writes with reference to statistics from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, by July 1, 2020, the country's net public debt amounted to 1.55 trillion rubles, the debt of the federal government - 14.77 trillion rubles, liquid reserves - 13.22 trillion rubles.
This financial situation is caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and falling oil prices and an imbalance in the federal budget, since the Ministry of Finance has to compensate for falling oil and gas revenues and increase spending beyond the limits determined by the budget rule. Additional expenses of 2020 in the amount of more than 3 trillion rubles. it is planned to finance by increasing internal state borrowings and using ruble balances in accounts.
| | There is an increase in the debt burden within the framework of anti-crisis support, and the second fact is an increase in the federal budget deficit and, as a result, a decrease in the balances of free placed funds in the banking system, "explained Sergey Konygin, chief economist at Gazprombank. | |
According to the press service of the Ministry of Finance, the main factor in the decline in state deposits was the deal to buy a controlling stake in Sberbank from the Central Bank in April for 2.14 trillion rubles. Despite the fact that initially the deal was estimated at more than 2.5 trillion rubles. Half of the NWF money paid for Sberbank almost immediately returned to the federal budget: the Central Bank transferred 1.1 trillion rubles to the Ministry of Finance, which will partially finance the anti-crisis expenses of 2020.
According to the publication, the fact that the government's assets do not cover the amount of debt does not threaten the stability of the budget, but is a "symbolic consequence of the current crisis."[5]
As of January 1, 2012, the domestic public debt of Russia reached 3.546 trillion rubles[6] the [6].
The state domestic debt of Russia as of November 1, 2012 amounted to 3.931 trillion rubles, according to official materials of the Ministry of Finance. Since the beginning of 2012, the volume of public debt has grown by 384 billion rubles, or 10.8 percent.
2019
The growth of the national debt of the Russian Federation by 7.8%, to 13.6 trillion rubles
According to the Accounts Chamber, in 2019, Russia's public debt grew by 3.4 trillion rubles to about 13.6 trillion rubles (12.3% of GDP). Compared to 2018, it grew by 7.8%.
Growth of external debt to $64 billion (+ 50% in 2 quarters )
In the first half of 2019, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation made an unprecedented increase in the external public debt in the history of Russia. The amount of the treasury's debt to foreign creditors increased 1.5 times - from $44 to $64 billion. The growth rate of debt amounted to 50% in 2 quarters, which in nominal terms increased loans by $20.3 billion.
The main source of borrowing was federal loan bonds. In total, the Ministry of Finance attracted 1,361 trillion rubles to the budget through the sale of OFZs. At the same time, according to the Central Bank, non-residents acquired 53% of this volume, investing $11 billion. Naturally, the debt of the Ministry of Finance grew stronger - by $14.7 billion. The difference will be spent on paying interest on loans. At the same time, the foreign exchange national debt reached $22.4 billion, an increase of $5.7 billion. Recall that in March 2019, the Ministry of Finance placed Eurobonds for $2.5 billion, investors bought the rest on the stock market.
Given the budget surplus of 1.6 trillion rubles, it seems that the Ministry of Finance artificially creates a special reserve for a "rainy day." This could be a consequence of the expectation of a sharp drop in oil prices or a new sanctions strike, including a ban on the purchase of Russian debt by the United States. However, even an increased public debt is only 16% of GDP, which is one of the lowest indicators in the world.
Moreover, the country's total external debt is $487 billion and $518.3 billion of foreign exchange reserves are fully covered. No country in the world, from among developing economies, possesses such solvency.
Another thing is upsetting - with a sharp increase in public debt, the ruble exchange rate risks losing stability. The fact is that foreign investors are becoming the main driving force that can lightning quickly change the value of the Russian currency. So, in the event of a change in the situation of the debt market and the global economic situation as a whole, foreign capital leaves Russia with lightning speed. This happened in 2014, when the sale of public debt by 600 billion rubles caused the ruble to fall from 56 to 70 rubles per dollar.
2018: Meager national debt per capita
2017: Low public debt-to-GDP ratio
The national debt of Russia, according to the Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2017 will reach 12.7 trillion rubles, which will amount to 13.8% of the country's GDP[7]
2015: $377 billion, including debts of state-owned companies
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of February 4, 2015, the external public debt of Russia in the expanded definition (as the state debt is called together with the debt of state-owned companies) is more than $377 billion[8]
2013: Growth of external public debt to $55.7 billion
In September 2013, Russia's external public debt grew by 12.6 percent and reached $55.78 billion. As stated in the official materials of the Ministry of Finance, mainly the growth is associated with an increase in debt on bonds to $40.65 billion.
For September, bond debts rose by 18.3 percent at once. Most of all - by $15 billion - Russia has bonds with maturity in 2030. No repayments are planned for 2014, and in 2015 Russia will have to give creditors two billion dollars.
To the Paris Club of Creditors, Russia's debt is only $185 million, to the former countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance - just over $960 million. According to state guarantees in foreign currency, debts increased to $11.3 billion.
2012
Public debt fell to 10% of GDP
In April 2012, the volume of public debt as a percentage of the country's GDP was estimated at about ten percent. At the same time, Vladimir Putin, who at that time held the post of prime minister, said that Russia's public debt in the next three years should not exceed 15 percent of GDP.
The Ministry of Finance in October 2012 predicted that by the end of 2012, Russia's public debt would grow to 14.1 percent of GDP.
The size of the external public debt is $40.545 billion
As of January 1, 2012, the size of the external public debt was $35.8 billion (27.7 billion euros).
As of October 1, 2012, according to the Ministry of Finance, the external public debt of Russia amounted to 40.545 billion in dollar terms (or 31.355 billion, if counted in euros).
2011: Public debt just 11.2% of GDP
In 2011, Russia's public debt was 11.2 percent of GDP.
During 2011, Russia's public external debt decreased by 10.4 percent in dollar terms and by 8.4 percent in euros.
2010
Since 2009, Russia began to gradually increase public debt due to lack of funds after the crisis. The government decided to borrow money both in the domestic and foreign markets.
Notes
- ↑ [https://ria.ru/20230302/gosdolg-1855252366.html. The volume of Russia's external public debt decreased
- ↑ first time in three years]
- ↑ The national debt of Russia at the end of 2022 approached 23 trillion rubles
- ↑ The Ministry of Finance commented on the growth of public debt by 5.4 trillion rubles. in 2020
- ↑ Russia against the background of the coronavirus crisis again became a net debtor. This was caused by the collapse of oil prices, the purchase of Sberbank and an increase in costs due to the pandemic
- ↑ 6,0 6,1 [http://www.lenta.ru/news/2012/11/09/debt/. The domestic public debt of Russia has grown by 11 percent since the beginning of
- ↑ The share of the Russian public debt in GDP in 2017 will decrease to 13.8%.
- ↑ External debt of the Russian Federation (detailed analytical presentation).
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