Main article: Budget of Russia
2024
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation brought the federal budget to a surplus of 170 billion rubles in 9 months
For 9m24, the budget surplus of Russia amounted to 0.17 trillion rubles against a deficit of 1.45 trillion for 9m23 and a surplus of 0.2 trillion for 9m22.
Progress in 2024 is very significant, because in mid-2023 the deficit was almost 8 trillion rubles in moving amount over 12 months, and by the end of September the deficit of 1.6 trillion and approximately at this level has been since June 2024.
Relative to budget revenues, the deficit fell to 4.5%, which corresponds to a fully balanced budget policy, because in fiscal crises the deficit expands to 20% and higher relative to income, and to 5% - a completely safe level.
Revenues increased by 33.2% YoY to 26.3 trillion from the beginning of the year, + 33.2% to 9m22 and + 46.7% to 9m21, in terms of moving amount for 12 months revenues amounted to 35.7 trillion rubles.
Oil and gas revenues increased by 49.4% YoY to 8.3 trillion rubles per 9m24 (for 12m - 11.6 trillion), -2.1% in two years, + 34.6% in three years.
Non-oil and gas revenues increased by 26.9% YoY to 18 trillion for 9m24 (for 12m - 24.1 trillion), + 60% (!) For two years and + 53% for three years.
Budget expenditures increased by 23.3% YoY to 26.1 trillion for 9m24 (for 12m - 37.3 trillion), + 33.7% for two years and + 60.3% for three years at par.
For comparison, in the first nine months inflation increased by 8.3% YoY, + 14.1% in two years and + 30.3% in three years. Accordingly, in real terms, spending increased by 23% over three years.
There is a faster growth in spending since July, but in general, it is possible to balance the budget with high income growth rates.
Deficit for 5 months less than 1 trillion rubles
In the first 5 months of 2024, the budget deficit amounted to less than 1 trillion rubles against a deficit of 3 trillion in 2023, a surplus of 1.6 trillion in 2022 and a surplus of 0.44 trillion in 2021 for the corresponding period of time.
In May 2023, the budget deficit for the moving amount for 12 months was about 8 trillion rubles or 31% of budget revenues, and by May 2024 the 12m deficit had decreased almost 7 times to 1.2 trillion or 3.5% of budget revenues.
The budget deficit of the Russian Federation in January-February decreased 1.6 times to 1.474 trillion rubles or 0.8% of GDP
Budget revenues Russia in January-February 2023 amounted to 5.025 trillion, rubles which is 59% more than in January-February 2023 (3.164 trillion rubles).
Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to 3.405 trillion rubles, increased by 55% compared to the reduced level of revenues in the same period last year.
Oil and gas revenues amounted to 1.621 trillion rubles, exceeding the indicators of the same period of the previous year by 71%.
Federal budget expenditures in January-February 2024 amounted to 6.499 trillion rubles, exceeding the level of the previous record year (5.543 trillion rubles) by 17% and 75% higher than January-February. 2022
The deficit of 1.47 trillion rubles for January-February 2024 is comparable to the budget deficit plan for the entire 2024. Accordingly, it is assumed that in the next 10 months the budget balance will be zero, despite the fact that in December the most significant deficit in the range of 2.5-4 trillion in one month is seasonally.
After the start of SVO in Ukraine, the distribution of expenses has changed and now peak expenses fall on the winter period, and at the beginning of the year it is planned to accelerate the advance payment of state contracts, mainly in the military-industrial complex.
2023
The deficit for the year is only 3.2 trillion rubles, or 1.9% of GDP
The federal budget deficit in Russia at the end of 2023 amounted to only 3.2 trillion rubles (1.9% of GDP) - the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
The Ministry of Finance of Russia fulfilled the task, which at the beginning of the year seemed incredible - reducing the budget to a plan.
Calendar 2023 was executed with a deficit of 3.2 trillion vs 3.3 trillion in 2022 and in comparison with 2.9 trillion of the deficit for 2023, which were recorded in the draft federal budget under No. 466-FZ of 05.12.2022.
In May 2023, the 12-month deficit reached 8 trillion and everything went to 10 trillion of the deficit, but a set of measures from the Ministry of Finance and macroeconomic factors contributed to an improvement in the budget situation, Spydell Finance wrote.
From June 2023, the Ministry of Finance began to save, at least until September, when total expenses were 5.5% lower at par than in 2022, but 15.7% higher than the same period in 2021 with accumulated inflation of more than 20% in two years. In real terms, expenses went into the red and this is taking into account the military budget.
From October to November, expenses were overclocked, but in December they sank again, completing 4q23 with total expenses 5.7% lower than 2022, but 29% higher than 2021 at par.
According to enlarged groups, oil and gas revenues almost reached the plan of 8.8 trillion in fact vs 8.9 trillion in the draft budget, and non-oil and gas revenues are much higher than the plan - 20.3 trillion vs 17.2 trillion in the budget, where 1.2 trillion in excess of the plan brought VAT.
As a result, revenues from June formed plus 3.5 trillion, and spending decreased by 1.2 trillion, which together had an effect of 4.7 trillion, reducing the deficit from 8 to 3.2 trillion.
For the entire year, revenues amounted to 29.1 trillion vs 27.8 trillion in 2022 and 25.3 trillion in 2021, and spending rose slightly to 32.4 trillion vs 31.1 trillion a year earlier and 24.8 trillion in 2021.
The budget deficit is less than 2% of GDP, given the unprecedented external pressure on Russia - these are strong indicators, much better than expected in the middle of the year.
Deficit for 10 months 1.235 trillion rubles or 0.7% of GDP
The federal budget of the Russian Federation in January-October 2023, according to the preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance, was executed with a deficit of 0.7% of GDP, or 1.235 trillion rubles, while the dynamics of treasury expenditures remains at a normal level - over 10 months they increased compared to the same period last year by 11.7%, to 24.341 trillion rubles.
Oil and gas revenues amounted to 7.210 trillion rubles and decreased by 26.3% YoY. Non-oil and gas revenues were at the level of 15.896 trillion rubles, an increase of 28.7% y/y.
The federal budget of Russia for 9 months in January-September, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, was executed with a deficit of 1.699 trillion rubles, or 1% of GDP. The budget deficit of the Russian Federation decreased in September by 660 billion rubles. A month earlier, the deficit, according to the Ministry of Finance, amounted to 2.361 trillion rubles, or 1.5% of GDP.
Russia has the most balanced budget in 4 years among leading countries
In Russia, the most balanced state budget among the leading countries of the world is only 2.1% of the consolidated budget deficit from GDP on average from the beginning of 2020 to 2023, which is even better than that of Saudi Arabia (the average deficit is 2.7% of GDP for 4 years).
A small list of countries is better than Russia: South Korea - consolidated budget deficit 1.3% of GDP 2020-2023, Taiwan -1.6%, Vietnam - 1.3%, Switzerland - 0.6%, Singapore - 0.4%, Sweden - 0.6%, and the surplus only in the UAE - 4.1% of GDP.
Deficit of 2.36 trillion rubles for 8 months
In the first 8 months of 2023, the Russian budget deficit amounted to 2.36 trillion rubles, against a surplus of 0.3 trillion in 2022 and a surplus of 1.1 trillion in 2021 in January-August.
Deficit of 2.59 trillion rubles in the 1st half of the year due to negative dynamics of oil and gas revenues
Deficit for 4 months 3.2 trillion rubles
The budget deficit of Russia in April 2023 exceeded the plan for the year, according to the materials of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The budget deficit in April increased by 1 trillion rubles, amounted to 3.2 trillion rubles ($45.4 billion) for 4 months (117% of the plan for the year) compared to a surplus of 1.1 trillion last year.
Revenues of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the first four months of 2023 decreased by 22% y/y, where oil and gas revenues fell by 52%, and non-oil and gas revenues increased by 5%.
The growth of expenses amounted to 26% YoY, where public procurement increased by 61%, forming over ¼ of all expenses of the federal government.
In April, 4.25 billion yuan and 6 tons of gold from the NWF were sold for 83 billion rubles to close the budget deficit
Of the funds of the NWF in April 2023, 4.25 billion yuan and 6 tons of gold were sold in the amount of 83 billion rubles. to finance the budget deficit of Russia - the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
Budget deficit in Q1 - 2.4 trillion rubles
The Russian budget deficit fell to 2.4 trillion rubles ($29.4 billion) in the first quarter of 2023 compared to a surplus of 1.1 trillion in 2022, a surplus of 287 billion in 2021 and a surplus of 113 billion in 2020. In the crisis 2015-2016 for 1 quarter there was a deficit of about 0.6-0.7 trillion, i.e. the current beginning of the year is the worst in history.
However, given the conditions, the stabilization of the budget is undeniable. The improvement was due to a sharp slowdown in spending from + 73% YoY in January and + 40% in February to + 6.5% YoY in March (2.33 trillion rubles versus 2.19 trillion).
A sharp slowdown in spending by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation while stabilizing non-oil and gas revenues made it possible to form a budget surplus in March at the level of 181 billion rubles.
Seasonally, March usually has the best budget balance in the year, for example, in 2022 for March the surplus was 766 billion, in 2021 - 823 billion, in 2020 - 277 billion, in 2019 - 287 billion.
2022
Budget deficit 3.35 trillion rubles or 2.3% of GDP at the end of the year
Russia ended 2022 with a budget deficit of 3.35 trillion rubles or 2.3% of GDP, follows from the operational data of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Later, in July 2023, the estimate was changed to 2.1% of GDP.
Such an annual deficit is one of the largest in the history of the country, there was more only in 2020 - 4.1 trillion rubles. In 2023, the country's budget will also be in deficit. A significant increase compared to 2021 (deficit - 2 trillion rubles). For comparison, during the 2015-2017 crisis, the budget deficit amounted to 2 trillion in 2015, 3 trillion in 2016 and 1.3 trillion in 2017.
In 2022, budget revenues increased by 10%, where oil and gas revenues increased by 28%, non-oil and gas revenues unchanged, and among them revenues related to domestic production increased by 16.2%, income related to imports fell by 20%, other revenues decreased by 11%.
From June 2022, visible degradation began in the revenue part, when total revenues decreased by 1.2% at par, where oil and gas revenues were unchanged (of which 1.25 trillion was a one-time withdrawal from Gazprom), domestic revenues decreased by 1.8%.
Domestic income grew by 12.6%, which is at the level inflations and above the potential for collecting income, given the decline, GDP i.e., more income is collected from the economy than is permissible. The negative contribution was made by income related to imports, which decreased by 29%, but have been recovering since September, but not yet enough (in December minus 16% YoY).
The main problem for the budget is exponentially growing costs with significant problems in revenue collection. With an initial spending plan of 24.1 trillion, and later 27.6 trillion rubles, in fact, 31.1 trillion came out, i.e. the Ministry of Finance distributed 4 trillion in an unknown direction. The Ministry of Finance has not published the details of federal budget expenditures since March 2022.
Over the year, spending grew by 26%, and for December, spending growth became a record (by 43%) in at least 15 years. In just one month in December, 6.9 trillion expenses were issued (this is 22% of annual expenses), compared with 4.8 trillion in 2021.
National spending is usually stable, but in conflict conditions it includes the cost of humanitarian assistance and partial maintenance of the territory in the SVO zone. In the fall of 2022, the Government estimated additional expenses at 800-900 billion,
With spending growing by almost 30%, the budget deficit from June to December amounted to 4.8 trillion compared to the near-zero surplus in 2021.
Federal budget surplus RUB 128.4 bln for 10 months
Russia managed to maintain a federal budget surplus in October 2022, since the tax on excess profits of the state gas company PJSC Gazprom brought billions of rubles to the state treasury.
The budget surplus reached 128.4 billion rubles ($2.1 billion) in the first 10 months of this year, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on November 11.
In September, Gazprom paid 416 billion rubles to the budget.
Mishustin ordered to send 1 trillion rubles from the NWF to cover the budget deficit
In October 2022, Prime Minister RFMikhail Mishustin signed an order to allocate 1 trillion rubles from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to cover the federal budget deficit.
The funds will go, among other things, to fulfill social obligations and replace state borrowings, repay public debt and provide budget loans to the subjects of the country, the Ministry of Finance said. The Central Bank told RBC that attracting funds from the NWF to cover the budget deficit is planned and has already been taken into account in the forecasts of the regulator.
 | An additional increase in balances on bank correspondent accounts due to the inflow of funds allocated from the NWF through the budget channel will be taken into account in the forecast when determining limits on weekly deposit auctions of the Bank of Russia, along with other factors of liquidity formation. It is important to note that the use of the funds of the NWF increases not only liquidity, but also the money supply, and through it - demand. Therefore, the Bank of Russia takes into account the use of the NWF funds as an integral part of the budget policy when clarifying the forecast and making a decision on the rate, the Central Bank said. |  |
In September 2022, Mikhail Mishustin warned that the development of the draft budget for 2023 and the planning period 2024-2025 would not be easy.
{{quote 'The scale of sanctions and attempts by unfriendly countries to block our work, our exports, our imports, logistics corridors, the possibilities of financial support for their areas of activity - all this puts difficult tasks under the formation of our budget, - said the head of the Cabinet. }} As of October 1, 2022, the volume of the National Welfare Fund amounted to 10.792 trillion rubles, or 8.1% of GDP. Over the month, it decreased by 1.08 trillion rubles.[1]
Federal budget closes with deficit for third straight month as spending rises 19%
In August 2022, the federal budget deficit amounted to about 345 billion rubles, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance. In July, the deficit was approximately 893 billion rubles, in June - 121 billion rubles.
The budget deficit against the background of income growth is due to a noticeable increase in spending this year: in eight months they increased by 19.5%, and in numerical terms the increase amounted to 2.85 trillion rubles.
Surplus for 10 months 2.1 trillion rubles
The Ministry of Finance reported on overfulfilling the budget revenue plan for 10 months of 2022. The Russian budget in January-October was executed with a surplus of 2.1 trillion rubles. The surplus in October amounted to 515.12 billion rubles. The budget revenue plan for this period was exceeded - revenues amounted to 20 trillion 430.84 billion rubles. (108.9% of the total approved volume for the year).
2020: Russia's consolidated budget deficit amounted to 4.3 trillion rubles
The deficit of the consolidated budget of Russia for 2020 amounted to 4.29 trillion rubles, according to data from the Federal Treasury.
The consolidated budget includes the budgets of a certain territory, which the state uses as a tool for developing, calculating minimum financial, social standards, norms for budget analysis, planning budget activities.
According to the statistics of the Federal Treasury, cited by Interfax, the revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation at the end of 2020 reached 37.86 trillion rubles, expenses - 42.15 trillion rubles.
In 2020, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of 4.99 trillion rubles with revenues of 18.72 trillion rubles (this is 7.3% less than in 2019) and expenses of 22.82 trillion rubles. According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, federal budget expenditures turned out to be 1 trillion rubles less than the updated marginal expenses established for the year. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov clarified that the undrawn 1 trillion rubles consisted of, among other things, 300 billion rubles of prisoners, but not fulfilled state contracts and 140 billion rubles of unfulfilled expenses of law enforcement agencies. The money "will not be lost," but will be postponed to next year - including in order to finance social spending and vaccination programs, the minister emphasized.
The deficit of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2020 amounted to 676.6 billion rubles with revenues of 14.9 trillion rubles and expenses of 15.58 trillion rubles.
The budgets of state extra-budgetary funds were executed with a surplus of 472.5 billion rubles (revenues - 13.25 trillion rubles, expenses - 12.77 trillion rubles).
The budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds were executed with a surplus of 9.2 billion rubles with revenues of 2.51 trillion rubles and expenses of 2.5 trillion rubles.[2]
2019: GDP dynamics and budget surplus
2012: Budget deficit 12.8 billion rubles or 0.02%
The 2012 federal budget deficit amounted to 12.8 billion rubles, or 0.02 percent of GDP. This is stated in the official press release of the Ministry of Finance. Budget revenues amounted to 12.858 trillion rubles, and expenses - 12.871 trillion[3]. In July 2012, it was expected that in 2012 the expenditure part of the Russian budget would amount to 13.4 trillion rubles (July 2012 Dmitry Medvedev)[4].
At the end of 2012, the consolidated budget of Russia received more than 13 trillion rubles of taxes and fees, 17.4 percent more than a year earlier.
It is noteworthy that the budget has not been fully executed either in terms of expenses or in terms of income - in terms of income, it amounted to 99.6 percent of the plan, in terms of expenses - 99.3 percent of the plan.
The budget received the most funds from the Federal Customs Service, which brought the state 6.48 trillion rubles.
Tax collections amounted to 5.16 trillion, and the Federal Property Management Agency sent 230.5 billion rubles to the budget. The remaining funds were received at the expense of other federal bodies.
The export duty on oil in 2012 was kept at about $400 per ton of oil. This means that due to exports, the state budget received only on the duty on oil to foreign countries approximately 84 billion dollars (2.5 trillion rubles).
- At a meeting of the State Duma on November 23, 2012, amendments to the budget for 2012 were adopted. According to them, the budget deficit will be 0.07 percent of GDP against 0.11 percent approved earlier. At the same time, at the end of 2011, it was assumed that the deficit would be 1.5 percent of GDP.
- When forming the budget for 2012, the Ministry of Finance believed that by the end of the year, expenses would exceed revenues by 1.5 percent of GDP (876.6 billion rubles). However, already in April, the budget deficit forecast was reduced 13 times to 68.1 billion rubles. This was due to the sharp rise in oil prices caused by international sanctions on Iran.
In 2012, the Russian budget included an oil price of $100 per barrel. In June, the country's authorities approved changes in the budget, according to which the average oil price should be $115 per barrel[4].
In January-July 2012, the average price of Russian Urals crude was 110.63 per barrel. As the expert of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexander Sakovich told Interfax, compared to the same period in 2011, the price increased by 1.3 percent.
The budget surplus of Russia from January to July 2012 amounted to 282.59 billion rubles, which is equal to 0.9 percent of the country's GDP. This was reported in the materials of the Ministry of Finance of Russia.
According to the preliminary assessment of the department, federal budget revenues for seven months amounted to 7.3 trillion rubles, and expenses - about 6.96 trillion rubles. The income plan for 2012 was fulfilled by 57.2 percent, the plan for expenses - by 54.6 percent.
In July 2012, the budget surplus grew by 35.2 billion rubles - according to the results of the first half of the year, the figure was 247.39 billion rubles (about 0.9 percent of GDP). In the first quarter, the state treasury, on the contrary, turned out to be in deficit. This was due to a high deficit in January-February, twice the expectations of the Ministry of Finance.
In May 2012, OECD experts predicted that the surplus of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2012 would be 1% of the country's GDP, in 2013 - 0.7% of the country's GDP, while earlier OECD experts predicted a deficit budget. Thus, in the previous report, the organization expected a negative balance of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2012 and 2013 at the level of 0.7% of GDP.
In July 2012, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev stressed that the government would gradually reduce the non-oil and gas budget deficit. In 2013, it will rise slightly from the current level to 10.1 percent, and by 2015 it will fall to 8.6 percent.
Notes
- ↑ Mishustin instructed to send 1 trillion rubles from the NWF to cover the budget deficit
- ↑ The consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2020 was executed with a deficit of 4.3 trillion rubles.
- ↑ The Ministry of Finance calculated the budget deficit-2012
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Social spending in Russia will exceed 4 trillion rubles
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