Control automation with predictive analytics helps the power companies to cut down infrastructure expenses

What problems face the power companies

By estimates of SO UES company, in the territory of Russia in 2015 about 700 power plants with a total installed capacity of 235 GW worked. All this electrical power complex for last year developed 1,027 Tvt*ch, at the same time was consumed on 19 Tvt*ch less.

Decline in demand for the electric power – a new frightening trend. According to consulting company McKinsey, in Russia problems with demand began because of banal overproduction. Responsible for the current situation in firm consider wrong forecasts: in the middle of 2 000th years the Agency on forecasting of balances in power industry calculated that in 2015 demand for the electric power will be about 1,117 Tvt*ch. Only 90% of the stated volume were in practice consumed. The predicted digits misled many energy companies, forcing the last to increase capacities. The present situation develops in the way, sad for power engineering specialists: "overproduction of energy does unclaimed power plants with a total power of 21.5 GW", - the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak summed up in the statement in June, 2015.

Only the developing states do not meet a problem of overproduction. Others – the countries of Europe, Australia – already faced rapidly declining demand on energy resources. It is worth noticing that balance causes of infringement "offer demand" in Europe and Russia different. Active development in Europe of alternative power engineering developed into introduction of "excess" capacities while crisis and falling of business activity, on the contrary, reduced energy consumption in the industry. However, despite different factors of development of an imbalance of demand and supply, at the European powers it is possible to gather several important lessons of overcoming overproduction.

So, the largest power companies of Europe were forced to take about 8 GW of power out of service. The similar course allowed to revitalize a situation in the market and to stimulate the competition. Some companies still continue "be compressed": the German power organization E.ON intends to sell the assets in Spain in the nearest future, and then, most likely, to leave the Italian market.

In the second queue the European power companies addressed optimization of operating expenses and also automation of some business processes. Reduction of items of expenditure, including using automation, - an important point as otherwise to survive in the highly competitive environment is impracticable. And the essential imbalance in demand and supply towards the last creates such conditions.

The Russian power companies should show remarkable sharpness in the course of optimization of the expenses. It is connected with several factors. First, overproduction of energy in scales of the country will not allow to enter new capacities for the purpose of increase in profit of the company. The power organizations will need to operate more thinly – to reduce costs on the available power plants. Secondly, it will not be possible to set the prices of the made product "manually". The Federal Antimonopoly Service regulating electricity rates in the Russian Federation watches closely compliance of the prices to regulations. On average FAS permits increase in rates only for 8% twice a year.

Finally, in Russia in operation of the power companies there is a large number of an obsolete equipment. It means that the organizations should show consideration for own infrastructure and to try to stop all possible malfunctions. Otherwise accidents and idle times will quickly ruin the company.

What can be optimized?

Expenses of the power company consist of a set of different articles: wage fund, "care" of tangible assets, taxes and many other things. However, as well as at any other production organization, the essential share of expenditure, first of all, is the share of maintenance of production capacities and infrastructure. Scheduled and repair work, replacement of worn out parts, hardware upgrade – all this "eats" a big piece from profit especially as on balance of the Russian power companies the considerable quantity of an obsolete equipment is registered today (age more than 40 years).

For control and management of fixed assets of the power company use, as a rule, EAM solutions (from the English Enterprise Asset Management). Such software allows "see" all assets of the enterprise, plan repair work and hardware upgrade and many other things.

What give to the power companies automated systems of centralized operation by infrastructure maintenance? First, they allow to increase service quality and to save on operating costs (up to 30%, according to a research of the A.T. Kearney agency). Secondly, increase operational efficiency, quality of monitoring, and eventually increase efficiency of work of all company. In the work similar IT solutions are used by power engineering specialists worldwide, for example, domestic company "RusHydro", the Swedish nuclear power station of Barseback, the Norwegian power company of Statnett, Chinese "Kinshan" and many others.

According to the statistics TAdviser companies, since 2012 until the beginning of the 2014th in the domestic power industry 111 projects on implementation of EAM systems were implemented. These are 12.1% of all implemented IT solutions in power for the specified period. Programs for management of fixed assets for popularity among the power companies take the 4th place. More often them power networks implement only corporate portals, electronic document management and solutions on information security.

Automation in questions of management of production capacities and infrastructure allows power engineering specialists to avoid a number of problems, for example, to reduce the number of restoring repairs because of accidents. Permanent tracking of a condition of equipment – the only opportunity to reduce risks of breakdowns, so and idle times, to a minimum.

Optimization using modern technologies

Certainly, technologies do not stand still and in the market tens of new IT solutions in the field of power annually appear. Among the progressive ideas there are systems of intellectual management of the distributed generation, the "power" Internet of Things called by Internet of Energy, use of methods of predictive analytics and others.

In general and "smart" IT solutions for management of it in professional community actively speak about the distributed generation the last several years. Similar approach can solve some technology and business challenges. For example, to help to save to the city or the power company on input of new capacities which cost, by the way, can be tens of millions of dollars. Or "protect" network from failures, having reduced peak load on separate substations. Decided to go in such way in the American state New York: the local utility power company of Rochester Gas and Electric suggested to develop instead of investments into new power plant (about $11.8 million) network of drives of small generation on the party of consumers. "Housing and communal services" undertook technical project organization (in particular creation of the IT platform for functioning of network) and also promoting of the idea of the distributed generation among the population.

The project already started. It is expected that by 2019 in the territory of the state the network of the distributed generation will be unrolled.

Certainly, reliable tools for removal of peak loads on different elements of infrastructure are required for the Russian power companies (especially outdated). However now it is difficult to call the distributed generation the "successful" solution. In order that similar schemes of interaction of electricity providers and their consumers earned, in Russia it is required to make much – "educate" the population, finish a question legislatively, prepare reliable IT solutions for management of the similar systems and many other things.

Much more "realistichny" the modern trend on application of predictive analytics in power looks. Use of similar solutions allows to reveal beforehand weak points of a system – infrastructure elements on the verge of breakdown, with the loading exceeding admissible, and many other things. Elimination of a dangerous situation before it develops into accident, – the best method to avoid idle time and to save on more expensive repair.

Similar technologies allow to pass from planned to pro-active service on a status with orientation to reliability of operation of the equipment. This methodology is called Predictive maintenance or RCM (Reliability-Centered Maintenance).

Implementation of transition to the pro-active service focused on reliability (RCM) requires development of remote control systems of technical condition and automatic diagnostics of the equipment using different sensors. Also creation of difficult complex model of work of all objects and use of powerful analytical tools is required. Such approach allows the energy company to use more effectively available infrastructure, to reduce operating costs by a MRO and also to reduce possible losses from restoring repairs and idle times due to failure prediction and anticipatory maintenance of crucial objects — the marketing director of Infotech Group company Alexander Molin explains

"Prevention" considerably prolongs life of production capacities and also provides uninterrupted operation of work of the power company. The last circumstance is important in the conditions of high competitive struggle between power networks – the enterprise more likely will select that energy supplier at whom the risk of emergency power off is reduced almost to zero.

It managed to the Israeli energy company Israel Electric test the solutions based on predictive analytics. Results from implementation of the program were very impressive: avoiding of expensive recovery repair work allowed to reduce costs of the organization on 20%. The lack of serious breakdowns saved to firm up to $80,000 on each turbine. Planning of preventive works on fault recovery also minimized the number of idle times.

In Russia there are own technology developments from the different companies for solving of tasks of control automation using predictive analytics. So, the Infotech Group IT company developed an end-to-end automated system of monitoring and management of power network infrastructure of Infotech EnergoComplex.

The product Infotech EnergoComplex undertakes tasks of monitoring and state management of infrastructure and production capacities of power engineering specialists. It is performed using the data of operating control received by employees and by means of network of sensors in real time. All data come to a complex subsystem of information processing and forecasting of a status of infrastructure of Infotech Intellect which, in turn, reveals significant events and transfers data in a row of other subsystems for centralized operation by all infrastructure.

Important functional component of the solution Infotech EnergoComplex is identification from data streams of significant meta-events which form a basis for the analysis of a status of objects. We apply different methods of data analysis, including Predictive analytics. In case of identification of premises of faults or other potentially dangerous situations a system instantly makes the notification of the manager, creates and appoints a task to the executive in charge or causes a necessary system for resolving the situation. Thus, anticipatory reaction is provided and the number of possible accidents decreases — Dmitry Bondar, the technical director of the company of Infotech Group notes

Besides, a system performs scheduling of requests in the most optimal way and allows to keep track of the statuses of their execution. Mobile teams can obtain information on tasks for maintenance directly on the screen of the smartphone or the tablet and to work more quickly. In the Infotech EnergoComplex system it is possible to monitor all process from emergence of premises of a non-staff situation until its elimination: as where occurred what mobile team went to the scene that was made, and what condition of equipment after repair or scheduled maintenance.

Infotech EnergoComplex represents the complete solution covering a full range of problems of infrastructure maintenance and providing to the energy company a unified environment of management. Thus, the solution of Infotech Group company gives the chance to the electric grid companies to optimize the maintenance costs of infrastructure and to increase management efficiency.

Experts of McKinsey consider that demand for the electric power in Russia will continue to decrease. The domestic power companies should not hope for fast change of negative dynamics therefore implementation of modern IT solutions for business process automation can become an important condition of survival of power engineering specialists.

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