ICT (Global Market)

Global IT Market Trends

White Paper: Global IT Market Trends

2023: Global ICT Market Reaches Nearly $5 Trillion

At the end of 2023, the volume of the global information and communication technology market reached $4.9 trillion. Despite the difficult macroeconomic situation and the geopolitical situation, the industry showed an increase of about 3.8% compared to the previous year. In the future, the positive dynamics will continue, as stated in the study, the Gartner results of which were published on July 16, 2024.

The authors of the report divide the industry into five key segments. These are data centers (data centers), electronic devices, enterprise-class software, IT services and telecommunications services. In the direction of the data center, costs in 2023 amounted to approximately $236.1 billion, which is 4% more compared to 2022. Corporate-class software brought in $974.09 billion, showing an increase of 11.5% on an annualized basis. Communication services accounted for about $1.5 trillion with an increase of 3.2% year-on-year. Another $1.5 trillion was provided by IT services, and growth in this area was recorded at 4.9%. The only category that showed a decrease in 2023 was electronic devices: the fall on an annualized basis was at 6.5% with a final result of $692.78 billion.

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Statista

According to Gartner experts, the global ICT market will end 2024 with an increase of 7.5% compared to 2023: total costs will be at the level of $5.27 trillion. Moreover, positive dynamics is expected in all five of the listed areas. One of the drivers of the industry is called generative artificial intelligence (GENI). As Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock notes, the influence of Genia is felt in all technological segments and sub-segments.

Amid the rapid development of AI, cloud platform operators and hyperscalers are actively increasing computing power by purchasing expensive GPU-based accelerators (GPUs). In this regard, the most significant growth is expected in the data center segment - plus 24.1% on an annualized basis with a final figure of $293.09 billion. In the field of corporate software, the increase will be 12.6% - up to $1.1 trillion at the end of 2024. Costs in the field of IT services will rise on an annualized basis by 7.1%, reaching $1.61 trillion. Telecommunications services will bring in $1.54 trillion, which corresponds to an increase of 3% compared to 2023. Revenue in the segment of electronic devices is expected at $730.13 billion - plus 5.4% year-on-year.

2024 will be the year when organizations begin to truly plan for the use of Genia, but IT costs will be determined by more traditional approaches, such as profitability and labor, Lovelock notes.

At the same time, Gartner analysts emphasize that, even despite the resumption of growth, the development of the industry is still somewhat constrained by fatigue from change. In particular, Chief information officer are hesitant to sign new contracts, take on long-term initiatives, or engage with new technology partners. Managers need a lot of confidence in the results to start new projects.

The continued growth of the global ICT market is also evidenced by Statista data. According to estimates of this company, in 2023, global costs amounted to approximately $4.69 trillion. By the end of 2024, spending is expected to increase to $5.06 trillion.

According to preliminary data from IDC analysts, the volume of the global IT market in 2023 amounted to $3.25 trillion, an increase of 4.4% on an annualized basis. It says service provider spending is down from its 2022 highs as the industry adjusts to slowing growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, investments by cloud providers and hyperscalers generally remained at the same level. Strong demand for cloud services continues to drive growth despite inflationary pressures, but spending on non-cloud services is declining.

Resellers who derive the bulk of their revenue from local infrastructure and personal computers face difficult market conditions in 2023. Meanwhile, cloud infrastructure, software and services are growing more slowly than in 2022, but continue to account for a larger share of total IT spending, says Stephen Minton, vice president of IDC.

As Minton notes, PC spending after the COVID-19 pandemic remains below peak values, but in other areas of the IT market, including servers, storage systems, software and services, there is an increase, even if this growth is not as strong as in 2022. Businesses remain cautious for fear of a possible economic downturn or recession, Minton said. In addition, American sanctions against China may have a negative impact on the market.

If China slumps again, it will have consequences for many other economies around the world, especially in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, says Minton.

IDC expects spending on cloud services and software products to remain sustainable. Many companies continue to move workloads to the cloud, saving on their own IT infrastructure and purchasing the necessary equipment. In addition, the cost of maintenance personnel is reduced.^[1]

2022

Global ICT infrastructure capital expenditure up 9%

A study by Synergy Research Group suggests that global ICT infrastructure capital expenditures rose 9% in 2022. The report was published at the end of January 2023.

Expenses are taken into account in the environment of hyperscalers (large data center operators like AWS and Microsoft Azure) and in the corporate sector. At the same time, in the telecommunications area, costs in 2022 decreased by 4%. In the three named segments, infrastructure spending in 2022 reached $700 billion. At the same time, data center operators and hyperscale platforms accounted for 29% of the total cost. For comparison: in 2016, this figure was 13%.

For six years (since 2016), the share of the corporate sector in the total amount of expenses fluctuated around the 29% mark, while the share of telecommunications companies fell from 58% to 42%. Since 2016, capital expenditures in the hyperscalers segment have increased by an average of 20% per year, while corporate IT spending has increased by an average of 6%. Investments in the telecommunications industry remained at the same level. Together, expenses increased by an average of 6% per year from 2016 to 2022.

Synergy Research Group ranks 19 companies among the operators of hyperscale sites. This, in particular,, Amazon Google(Facebook owned by an [[Meta (formerly Facebook)|Meta, which is recognized in Russia extremist organization; activities on the territory of the Russian Federation are prohibited),,,, and. Microsoft Apple Alibaba ByteDance Telecommunications companies, in terms of the highest costs, include fixed and mobile providers. This,,,,, and. China Mobile Deutsche Telekom Verizon AT&T NTT China Telecom

The share of hyperscalers in total spending continues to grow steadily amid the development of cloud technologies and the ongoing digital transformation of enterprises. At the same time, the costs of telecommunications companies are still very limited due to the lack of significant development of the industry. In the corporate segment, spending recovered from declines in 2019 and 2020.

Dell'Oro Group estimates that global data center investment will reach $400 billion by 2027. The hybrid cloud concept will stimulate cost growth in this area. Macroeconomic factors may hinder short-term investment in data centers, although growth is projected in the future. Peripheral computing will account for 8% of total data center infrastructure spending by 2027, analysts said.

Enterprises will constantly optimize their IT projects, combining workloads in multi-cloud environments with local ones. New applications will require the deployment of infrastructures on the periphery, which will lead to the emergence of the next generation ecosystem. Against this background, advances in new server architectures, HPC and sustainability will improve the efficiency of data centers, "said Baron Fung, Director of Research, Dell'Oro Group.

Capital investment in global data centers is projected to grow by 11% by 2027. At the same time, according to analysts, macroeconomic uncertainties are forcing companies to switch to optimized business development models. Therefore, IT budgets are adjusted downward. An increasing number of customers are changing cloud strategies to improve efficiency and control costs. This includes evaluating the migration of certain cloud workloads to private or collaborative data centers to reduce costs.^[2][3]

Global ICT market falls 0.2% to $4.39 trillion

On January 18, 2023, Gartner published the results of a study of the global information and communication technology (ICT) market. The volume of the industry in 2022 decreased, which is due to the unstable economic situation and high inflation, which continues to undermine the purchasing power of consumers.

Gartner statistics take into account the costs of systems for data centers, all kinds of electronic devices, software, IT services and communication services. According to estimates, in 2022, total spending in the indicated sectors amounted to $4.39 trillion. This is 0.2% less than the result for 2021.

There was a fall in the global ICT market

Consumers and businesses face different economic realities. While inflation is detrimental to the consumer segment, prompting staff cuts at B2C, businesses continue to increase spending on digital business initiatives despite a slowdown in the global economy, says Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock.

It is noted that the unstable macroeconomic situation has changed the context of business decision-making. In this situation, IT managers will delay some initiatives or change priorities. Spending on IT services is growing faster than on internal services in each individual industry. Companies are looking to attract external IT staff to implement services and support. Therefore, there is a particularly high demand for highly qualified specialists.

In the consumer sector, there is a significant decline in sales. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, users around the world were actively buying new personal computers, tablets and smartphones for remote work and distance learning. As a result, many consumers do not need to update gadgets. In addition, against the background of difficult market conditions, the service life of the available equipment has increased.

According to Gartner estimates, in 2022, spending in the communications services segment amounted to approximately $1.42 trillion, a decrease of 2.4% on an annualized basis. Another $1.24 trillion brought all kinds of IT services - plus 3% compared to 2021. Software spending climbed 7.1%, reaching $783.5 billion. Sales of all kinds of electronic devices decreased by 10.6% - to $722.2 billion. In the segment of systems for data centers, an increase of 12% was recorded - up to $212.4 billion, which is due to the rapid development of cloud platforms and infrastructures for high-performance computing.

There was a fall in the global ICT market

Analysts predict that demand for electronics and gadgets on a global scale will continue to decline in 2023. The fall compared to 2022 may amount to 5.1%, and the final result is $685.6 billion. All other segments of the IT industry, according to experts, will show growth. Thus, in the software sector, sales are expected to increase by 9.3% - to $856 billion. IT services will bring in $1.31 trillion - plus 5.5% on an annualized basis. In the field of communication services, costs will remain at $1.42 trillion. Data center system deliveries will rise 0.7% year-on-year, reaching $213.9 billion. In general, the volume of the ICT market in 2023 may amount to $4.5 trillion, showing an increase of about 2.4% compared to 2022.

Along with the growth of software costs, the IT services market is growing. For example, consulting spending is expected to reach $264.9 billion in 2023, up 6.7% from 2022, Gartner said in a study.[4]

IDC: Conflict in Ukraine will cause a loss of $5.5 billion to the global ICT industry, industry growth will decrease to 2%

The Russian special operation in Ukraine will lead to the fact that the global industry of information and communication technologies (ICT) in 2022 will lose about $5.5 billion. This forecast in May 2022 was made by analysts. In their opinion, the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will continue for many years.

According to IDC expectations, in 2022 the global information and communication technology market will increase by 4%, which is 1 percentage point less than the previous forecast of analysts.

The study says that ICT spending in Europe by the end of 2022 will increase by 2%, while previously 3.7% growth was expected. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the market will sink by 10%, in Russia - by 25%, in Ukraine - by all 54%.

Conflict in Ukraine in 2022 will cause a loss of $5.5 billion to the global ICT industry

According to the researchers, the military conflict leads to a disruption of ICT supply chains and a shortage of highly qualified specialists in Russia and CEE. As a result, spending in the ICT industry in these regions may decrease by the end of 2022.

Another problem pointed out by experts is the shift of state budgets towards defense and measures to support the economy in conditions of high inflation and lack of resources. As a result, projects suffer not only in the ICT sector, but also in other industries, for example, in the educational sector. Experts believe that in this situation, the markets for education, personal and consumer services, as well as telecom will feel the worst in Russia. Due to Western sanctions, the country may lose about $1.2 billion in ICT spending, analysts predict.

Supply chain disruptions affect Eastern Europe and lead to fewer partners and distributors from Western countries cooperating with Russia, says IDC analyst Andrea Minonne. - Inflation is hitting Eastern Europe and has a negative impact on demand in the B2B and B2C sectors.

Conflict in Ukraine in 2022 will cause a loss of $5.5 billion to the global ICT industry

The IDC listed five main factors of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global ICT industry:

• Additional inflationary pressure. The higher cost of oil and gas (and other commodities) will increase the already significant inflationary pressure at the global level, which will entail rising interest rates and, possibly, an economic downturn.
• Global supply chain challenges. This is primarily due to the lack of technical components and disruption of the supply chain of technological products (for example, neon exports from Ukraine and palladium from Russia);
• The increase in cyber attacks. Higher-level attacks will focus not only on Russia or Ukraine - they will be global as new Cold War technology gains momentum;
• Solving new problems in digital sovereignty. As global cloud service providers are forced to stop their services in Russia, many organizations will reconsider their dependence on these platforms;
• Accelerated efforts to decarbonize the economy. These events have become another trigger for organizations in the field of power and utilities to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, and, more importantly, the transition to renewable energy sources in an accelerated manner.

Analysts see several possible scenarios for the development of the situation. With the pessimistic version of the world, the growth of spending on information and communication technologies in 2022 will be a little more than 2%, with neutral - more than 3%, with positive - more than 4%. In February 2022, before the start of the special operation, it was assumed that this figure would be almost 5%.^[5]

2021

The volume of mergers and acquisitions in the ICT sector for the year reached $1 trillion

The volume of mergers and acquisitions transactions in the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry on a global scale at the end of 2021 reached $1 trillion, which is about 30% more than in 2020. Such data in early May 2022 were released by analysts at ResearchAndMarkets. Read more here.

The global ICT market grew by 9%, to $4.24 trillion

The volume of the global information and communication technology market in 2021 reached $4.24 trillion, which is 9% higher than a year ago. Such data were released by Gartner analysts on January 18, 2022.

According to their estimates, the largest expenses in the market under consideration fell on communication services - $1.44 trillion. Compared to 2020, the segment added 3.4%. At the same time, corporate-class software sales showed the highest growth rates: in 2021, they increased by 14.4% and reached $604.95 billion.

Sales of IT equipment (computers, smartphones, etc.) increased by 13% and amounted to $787.42 billion at the end of 2021. In the IT services sector, which includes consulting and systems management services, a 10.7 percent increase in revenue was registered at the end of 2021, with an absolute figure of $1.19 trillion. In the market of systems for data centers, the expenses of companies in 2021 increased by 11.4% and turned out to be equal to $216.34 billion.

The global ICT market grew by 9% in 2021 thanks to software purchases by companies

According to analysts, despite existing concerns about the consequences of the spread of the new "omicron" coronavirus, COVID-19 experts believe that high hopes for economic recovery and the prosperity of the digital technology market will stimulate IT investment.

Gartner believes that in the period until 2025, organizations will more often resort to the services of external consultants due to a lack of their own resources and capabilities. The trend will be most pronounced in the field of cloud technologies, which are becoming a key element in achieving digital development goals and supporting a hybrid work format.

Gartner expects that over the next few years, the vast majority of large organizations will engage external consultants to develop their cloud strategy, said John-David Lovelock, Gartner vice president of research.

According to him, after in 2020-2021. Chief information officers were forced to work only with short-term projects, after these two years they can focus on long-term initiatives. At the same time, gaps in staff skills, salaries and the war for specialists will force Chief information officers to rely more on consulting services and management services firms to implement their digital strategies, Lovelock said.

Gartner: until 2025, organizations will more often resort to the services of external consultants due to lack of their own resources

In addition, the report notes that in 2020, the cloud segment of the enterprise software market for the first time outstripped the non-cloud direction in terms of costs, which was partly due to the coronavirus pandemic. It is expected that by 2025 the superiority of the cloud category over the non-cloud segment will become two-fold against the background of the active transition of organizations to the SaaS (software-as-a-service, software as a service) model to ensure constant flexibility and dynamism.

Despite the persistence of epidemiological risks, the market is stabilizing with a recovery in growth in all areas. In many respects, the dynamics are due to the fact that the business itself has become more predictable: in the first pandemic year, companies identified their needs, many revised development strategies, focusing specifically on digital optimization of business processes.

Analysts at Forrester Research also released their data on the ICT market situation. They noted that by the end of 2021, 60% of companies began using containers on public cloud platforms, and 25% of developers began using serverless functions. According to preliminary estimates, the global public cloud infrastructure grew by 35% to $120 billion in 2021, and Alibaba Cloud came in third in the world after Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.^[6]

The world's largest manufacturers of ICT solutions for business

The total revenue of the 13 largest manufacturers of software and ICT services for business, including telecom operators, reached $613 billion in this market in 2021, which is 10% more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of analysts Synergy Research Group, published on December 21, 2021.

In their study, experts included vendors with a total annual revenue of $25 billion. Synergy Research's findings are based on data collected quarterly by specialists on a wide range of corporate information technology markets. The calculations do not include sales of equipment and consumer services. The telecommunications solutions segment includes software solutions and services with which telecom operators build communication infrastructure.

Microsoft earned the most on the sale of ICT solutions for corporate and telecommunications clients in 2021 - $120 billion. This is 24% more than a year ago. This figure includes revenues from cloud services and software. Amazon showed the highest growth rate (+ 36%).

The world's largest manufacturers of ICT solutions for business

The worst dynamics was observed in Huawei: due to geopolitical problems and restrictions imposed by the United States on the purchase of technology, the income of the Chinese vendor from corporate customers and service providers in 2021 fell by 9% compared to 2020 - to just under $60 billion.

While Huawei's revenue declined, Ericsson and Nokia's performance was little changed, suggesting relative weakness in sales to telecom operators compared to the corporate sector, the report said.

Among the largest segments of the market, analysts listed cloud infrastructure services, collaboration services, enterprise/ ON, SaaS infrastructure, DPC IT infrastructure service providers and corporate IT services. The highest growth rates in 2021 were recorded in such areas as cloud infrastructure services, SaaS, cloud collaboration IT infrastructure data centers and service providers. At the same time, analysts do not disclose segment indicators separately.

Among the world's largest manufacturers of ICT solutions for business: Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia

The tech giants posted patchy results in 2021, but the good news is that revenue has only declined for Huawei, with that decline occurring largely for reasons beyond the company's control. In a wide range of corporate IT markets, vendors have achieved double-digit growth. The most successful business was in the markets focused on cloud technologies and software, which provided significant growth for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Salesforce, said John Dinsdale, leading analyst at Synergy Research.

According to him, vendors, whose focus is on more traditional local products and infrastructure, will not be easy to achieve impressive growth.

Analysts note that despite the difficult economic situation, the ICT sector showed stability in 2021, which is associated with a sharp increase in the demand for digital goods and services among the population and business. In the coming years, we should expect further growth of the ICT sector as a driver of the planned large-scale digitalization of the economy and social sphere.^[7]

2020

The market sank 3.2%, to $3.69 trillion - Gartner

The volume of the global information and communication technology market in 2020 decreased by 3.2% compared to 2019 and amounted to $3.69 trillion. This is evidenced by the data of the analytical company Gartner.

Experts associated the decline in the ICT industry with the COVID-19 pandemic, due to which the budgets of companies for equipment, software and services were cut. At the same time, it was the large-scale spread of coronavirus infection that contributed to digitalization: business was forced to transfer staff to remote work, and educational institutions to distance learning, which spurred the demand for cloud and other IT tools.

According to John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner, Chief information officers in a pandemic, we have to find a balance between cost savings and the expansion of technological infrastructure.

Global ICT market falls 3.2%

As the economy returns to a level of stability, companies are investing in IT in line with their growth expectations rather than current revenue levels. Digital business, primarily fast payback projects, will receive more money and attention from boards in 2021, the expert said.

Sales of IT equipment, including computers and smartphones, fell the most in 2020. In 2020, their expenses amounted to $653.17 billion, which is 8.2% less than a year earlier. The IT services segment registered a 2.7 percent decline and revenue of $1.01 trillion for the year.

The implementation of corporate-level software sank 2.4% - up to $465.02 billion. World spending on communication services turned out to be $1.35 trillion, which is 1.7% short of the 2019 result. Only in the market of systems for data centers there was no decline, but there was no growth: in 2020, expenses here amounted to almost $215 billion, which almost exactly corresponds to the indicator of a year ago.

John-David Lovelock says the IT equipment market has growth potential given the intensive development of remote education in 2020. The trend of studying and working from home contributes to the sale of laptops and tablets. According to experts, the crisis will help some companies intensify and occupy new niches, while others will leave the market.

Global ICT Spending Forecast ($ Million): Data Center Systems, Corporate Software, Devices, IT Services, Communications Services

The study notes a surge in demand for cloud solutions. Companies specializing in cloud technologies either did not lose capitalization at all when the market fell, or grew. Against the background of the spread of coronavirus and the transfer of employees to remote work, there was an increase in demand for cloud services by tens and hundreds of percent. This was predictable, since the business needed computing resources to organize remote work - deploying virtual desktops in the clouds, video conferencing, etc. Similarly, the demand for platform IT solutions, such as aggregators for the delivery of food and other goods, electronic platforms, portals, is increasing.

On the other hand, all other segments of the IT market temporarily sank. Against the background of restrictions and the current economic situation, the demand for the vast majority of non-essential goods and services has decreased. Consequently, IT infrastructure needs for enterprises producing these products and services have also decreased.

COVID-19 has changed the technological equilibrium in many industries, says Lovelock. - In 2021, the level of digitalization of internal processes, supply chains, mechanisms for interaction with customers and partners, as well as the provision of services is expected to increase. Thanks to this, IT will not only be supported by business, but will become a business themselves.[8]

Forecast of global ICT spending until 2022 by segments in one picture. TAdviser infographic

Head of Veon: Coronavirus accelerated the digitalization of the economy by 10 times

VeonCaan Terzioglu co-director believes that the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of the global economy by 10 times. He expressed this opinion in an interview with Vedomosti, which was published on April 13, 2020. Read more here.

2019

ICT market in Russia and Eastern and Central Europe grew by 4%

In 2019, the volume of the Russian information and communication technology market reached $47.05 billion, which was the largest result among all countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), IDC analysts calculated.

According to their estimates, the total ICT expenses in CEE at the end of 2019 amounted to $136.66 billion, which is 4% higher than a year ago. Thus, Russia accounted for a little more than one third of investments.

The volume of the Russian information and communication technologies market reached $47.05 billion

The second place after the Russian Federation was taken by Poland with ICT costs in the amount of $20.44 billion at the end of 2019. The leading three closed the Czech Republic with a result of $10.86 billion.

The share of spending on telecommunications services in the total volume of the market under consideration in 2019 amounted to 41%. Sales of equipment and IT services accounted for 34% and 13%, respectively.

As for industries, representatives of the manufacturing, financial and telecommunications sectors invest the most in ICT - their combined share in Central and Eastern Europe was 48%.

Telecommunications operators are leading in terms of growth, which are expected to increase spending on ICT by 6.3% in 2020. At the same time, the volume of the entire regional market will rise by 3.1%.

Analysis in terms of organisation size shows that large businesses (over 500 employees) accounted for 50% of ICT spending in the region in 2019. The contribution of medium-sized businesses is estimated at about 23%, and small organizations and small/home offices spent another 17% and about 10% of the total.

According to experts, the ICT market in CEE countries slows down growth, which is associated with an economic downturn, as well as the fact that government agencies, state-owned companies and consumers have begun to spend money more rationally.

In Central and Eastern Europe, spending and efficiency tend to come first in business priorities. Companies should carefully consider where they can tighten their belts and use new technologies that will help save money, and not create a burden on their budget, says IDC analyst Ivana Slaharova[9]

IT services overstep for the first time for $1 trillion - Gartner

In 2019, the volume of the global information and communication technologies (ICT) market reached $3.74 trillion, an increase of 0.5% compared to 2018. Such data on January 15, 2020 were cited by the analytical company Gartner.

According to experts, annual spending on IT services for the first time in history exceeded $1 trillion and amounted to $1.03 trillion. This segment showed an increase of 3.6%, which was almost the best dynamics among all ICT categories. According to a Gartner survey, 46% of organizations say IT services and vendor consolidation are among the top three best practices for cost optimization.

Largest ICT Market Segments, Gartner Data

The strongest - by 8.5% to $456 billion - in 2019, annual sales of enterprise software increased. According to John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner, almost all segments of the business software market are growing driven by SaaS solutions.

We even expect spending on software types that are not cloud-based to continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate. SaaS has more and more new costs, but software with licenses will still be bought, and it will become more widely used until 2023, the expert said.

Enterprise IT spending on cloud solutions is expected to grow faster than traditional (local) IT products by 2022. Analysts also see great prospects in the field of software solutions for ensuring cybersecurity and protecting personal data.

The largest segment of the global ICT industry remains communication services, but demand for them is falling. In 2019, costs in this area on a global scale were equal to $1.36 trillion, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous year.

IT equipment sales are also falling. In 2019, revenue here decreased by 4.3% to $682 billion, largely due to the high dollar exchange rate. This factor also negatively affected the demand for equipment for data centers in countries that are more affected by unfavorable currency fluctuations.

For example, the sale of mobile phones in Japan is likely to decrease in 2020 due to the rise in price of devices caused by the rising price of American currency. Sales of computers, printers, servers and external storage systems in Britain will fall by 3%, the study said.

Analysts believe that the demand for PCs from the corporate sector, strengthened by the transition to Windows 10, will continue to grow for some time. At the same time, Gartner warned of the possibility of short-term negative consequences due to a shortage of Intel processors.

According to John-David Lovelock, although global sales of PCs, tablets and mobile phones have shown the strongest decline among all ICT categories, they should return to growth in 2020 due to the emergence of new less expensive phone models for emerging markets.

In 2019, the volume of the global information and communication technologies (ICT) market reached $3.74 trillion, an increase of 0.5% compared to 2018

While political uncertainty has pushed the global economy closer to recession, it has not happened in 2019. And such a scenario is not the most likely in 2020 and beyond, says John-David Lovelock. - With global uncertainty diminishing, companies are doubling down on IT investment again, expecting revenue growth, but their spending patterns are constantly changing.

According to Gartner's expectations, global ICT spending in 2020 will increase by 3.4% and amount to almost $3.87 trillion, and in 2021 they will exceed $4 trillion for the first time due to an increase of 3.7%.^[10]

2018: Consumer ICT spending estimated at $1.61 trillion for the year

In 2018, consumer spending on information and communication technologies on a global scale reached $1.61 trillion, according to data from the analytical company IDC. The study was made public on October 11, 2019.

Experts divide consumer technology into traditional and developing. The cost of the former is approximately 75%, and more than half here falls on communication services (voice calls and mobile Internet).

Experts include augmented ivirtual reality devices, unmanned aerial vehicles, on-demand services, robotic systems, smart home devices and wearable electronics.

Fastest Growing Segments of Consumer ICT Market, IDC Forecast 2018-2023

As for entertainment, consumers spend the most on services related to broadcasting or downloading TV programs, videos and movies, as well as listening to music and computer games.

The most dynamically growing options for using technologies will be games in augmented reality (CAGR 82.9%) and home automation (59.8%).

The largest market in terms of consumer spending on technology in IDC is called the United States - in 2018, about $391 billion was spent there. The second place is occupied by China, but the Celestial Empire will lead in terms of cost growth (+ 6.8% annually from 2018 to 2023). Western Europe closes the top three.

IDC Customer Insights & Analysis Research Manager Stacey Soohoo says technological advancements are and will be driving "convenience" for users.

Consumer spending on information and communication technologies on a global scale reached $1.61 trillion

From consumer robots for cleaning and maintaining the home to smart lighting or home security/monitoring systems, consumers are implementing these solutions in their homes and daily lives as they carry out their own digital transformation, she noted.

According to her, companies are exploring new opportunities for interaction with consumers in order to find the right combination of personalization and functionality to provide coordinated functions.

According to IDC forecasts, in 2019 consumers around the world will spend $1.69 trillion on technology, and in 2023 the figure will rise to $2.06 trillion. The average annual pace of this market is expected at $5.1.

The highest sales growth rates are expected in the augmented and virtual reality headset, drone and robot segments (see chart above).

Costs for traditional and emerging technologies will increase by 2.2% and 13.2% annually between 2018 and 2023.

More than 80% of the costs of this area will come from smart wearable gadgets and devices for smart homes. The same segment will be the fastest growing among developing technologies: the growth rate here will reach 38%.

On-demand services provide access to networks, markets, content and other resources in the form of subscription-based services and include services such as Netflix, Hulu and Spotify. As internet users run multiple services on their devices, it is important that technology providers understand how the adoption of these different technologies and services will impact their consumer experience in the future, says Stacy Sohoo.

Global consumer spending on on-demand content services is projected by IDC to increase by about 14.2% annually between 2018 and 2023. The growth rate in the wearable electronics segment will be measured at 11.8%. Costs for other categories of devices and services will grow by 3.4% annually.^[11]

2017

10 top ICT trends in 2019 - TrendForce

In October 2018, experts from the analytics company TrendForce presented forecasts in the field of information and communication technologies for 2019, focusing on 10 key topics.

Enhance and accelerate memory with next-generation products and advanced crystal design technologies

In the semiconductor field, moving to each new level becomes more difficult due to physical constraints. In 2019, manufacturers will continue to invest in research and development of advanced solutions. In addition to saving space, the requirements for reaction speed and a variety of structures will increase. Compared to existing DRAM products, next-generation solutions will be compatible with different architectures. They will also help improve performance, for example by reducing power consumption through non-volatile memory.

Experts from analytics firm TrendForce presented forecasts in the field of information and communication technologies for 2019, focusing on 10 key topics

Widespread commercial use of 5G

Commercialization is expected to accelerate in 2019. 5G Primarily in the United States,,, and South Korea. Japan China Also on sale should be smartphones other devices that support this technology. The advantage of 5G will be faster speed and faster connection. The spread of 5G will generate demand for other technologies, including high-definition video (/8K), 4K mobile/games and ARVR immersive multimedia applications, remote surgery, Internet of Things automated vehicle control, etc.

Smartphone specifications will be updated, foldable and 5G smartphones will appear

In 2019, a large number of models are expected to appear with a full-screen design, narrower bezels and corresponding smaller front cameras. Moreover, biometric technologies will become more and more widespread in the smartphone market. Advanced solutions will allow brands to release single-screen foldable and 5G smartphones. Offerings combining 5G and a foldable screen could also have great potential and cause a spike in the market.

Mid-range and premium smartphones will have a fingerprint sensor under the display

Fingerprint sensors were typically installed in flagship smartphones in 2018, but are expected to hit mid-range and premium Android models in 2019. Also, Android phone manufacturers can start embedding ultrasonic fingerprint sensors directly into the display. TrendForce estimates that ultrasonic and optical sensors located under the display will account for 13% of all sensors in 2019. In 2018, this value was 3%.

Mini LED in consumer electronics

With greater brightness and contrast, Mini LED will be able to compete with OLED and penetrate the displays of smartphones, tablets, desktops, TVs and other consumer electronics. In 2019-2020, the accelerated distribution of Mini LEDs is predicted, as a result of which their market value could reach $1699 million by 2022.

A large number of voice-controlled applications

In 2019, the number of applications that support voice interaction will grow, including voice assistants, voice shopping, etc. Companies will continue to develop new voice applications to explore market potential.

eSIM will give smartwatches an additional advantage

Backed by big companies like Apple, Huawei and Qualcomm, more apps will use eSIM in 2019 to support music streaming, calls, messaging, etc.

Key year for the Internet of Things and increased competition in the market

Thanks to technological advances (LPWAN et al.) and global adoption, IoT is expected to become widespread in the work of industrial companies, and 2019 will be a key year for them to evaluate the results of using IoT in their enterprises. Meanwhile, competition will also intensify, so businesses will consider whether investment in IoT is cost effective enough to boost profitability in the long term.

New technologies will change the healthcare industry

Under the Treatment Practices Act of the 21st century, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced new sequencing regulations (NGS) and digital medicine principles. The development of surgical robots and surgical navigation systems (SNS) is expected. The FDA will continue to focus on developing the genetic databases of ClinVar and ClinGen, as well as PrecisionFDA, which verifies sequencing algorithms. Combined with new treatments, NGS will help improve the accuracy and quality of medicine in the future.

Smart Power Systems, Power Management and Energy Storage Systems Will Become Key in the Global Photovoltaic Power Market

In 2019, the attention of developers of photovoltaic systems will be drawn to a constant reduction in the tariff for the supply of electricity to the network, smart power systems, power management and storage systems. They will need to achieve efficient energy storage in order to balance the load on power plants and stabilize the overall quality of electricity.^[12]

Global Telecom Services Market to Grow 1.7% in 2017

At the end of 2017, the global market for telecommunications services and paid TV services will grow by 1.7%, and its volume in monetary terms will amount to $1.67 trillion. This became known from a fresh study by the analytical company IDC, published on December 4, 2017.^[13]

Experts expect that the uptrend in 2018 will continue: global spending on communication services and pay television will increase by another 2% and exceed $1.7 trillion. Read more here.

ICT market grows twice as fast as GDP

On October 18, 2017, the analytical company International Data Corporation (IDC) published the results of a study of the global industry of information and communication technologies (ICT). Spending on them, as it turned out, is growing twice as fast as global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to IDC, in 2016, spending on IT solutions and telecommunications services in the world reached $4.3 trillion, which is almost 5% more than a year earlier. At the same time, real GDP grew by about 2.2%. The ICT market is expected to grow by 6.5% and GDP by 2.5-2.6% in 2021.

Graph Reflecting ICT Market and Global GDP Growth Dynamics, IDC Data

Experts call the main drivers of the ICT industry "accelerators of innovation": the Internet of Things (IoT), robots, augmented (AR) and virtual (VR) reality, 3D printers, cognitive computing, artificial intelligence (AI) and the next generation of information security technologies (IS). In 2017, sales of these technologies will increase by 17%, while global spending on traditional IT solutions will increase by 3-4% per year from 2017 to 2021, and the cost of telecom services will increase by only 1%.

Innovation accelerators are an important engine for the third platform, quickly replacing the second platform, which includes local data centers, devices and software, says IDC analyst Stephen Minton. - This not only creates new fast-growing categories, such as VR content playback devices, drones, 3D printers and IoT solutions, but also entails a strong shift in traditional segments, including the growth of the IoT server and cognitive AI software markets.

From the IDC report of October 18, 2017, it follows that a few years earlier the company recorded a sharp shift towards a third platform, combining cloud computing, mobile technologies, data analytics, social networks and the Big Data concept. In a short time, these technologies became dominant in terms of revenue. Innovation accelerators are capable of triggering a new wave of growth for the third platform, which will account for three-quarters of ICT spending by 2021, analysts predict.

According to Stephen Minton, the second platform is shrinking, but developed economies still have a huge base of outdated IT infrastructure to support this platform and move from it to the third. As for emerging markets, some of them may step over the second platform and engage in the introduction of new technologies. For example, in the Asia-Pacific region, which has become a leading innovator in the development of IoT and robotics, there has already been an explosive growth of mobile technologies in recent years, the analyst said.

ICT industry grows twice as fast as global GDP

Thomas Vavra, vice president of software market research for the IDC CEMA region, says that in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which includes Russia, many categories of technologies of the second platform are in decline, while the directions of the third platform are growing rapidly, with the exception of some segments in the field of mobile devices. Thus, investments in a third platform will become an engine for the growth of the IT industry in the region, the specialist is sure.

Mobile technology and IoT have already had a big impact on IT spending in CEE, and in the future they will continue to grow rapidly. Although AR/VR and cognitive artificial intelligence are small segments, in subsequent years they will grow faster than other technological categories, says Vavra.[14]

2016: Gartner captures 0.6% decline in global ICT market

On January 12, 2017, the analytical company Gartner published the results of a study of the global information and communication technologies (ICT) market. Its volume decreased slightly in 2016, but in 2017 and 2018. positive dynamics are expected.

According to Gartner, in 2016, IT spending globally amounted to $3.375 trillion, which is 0.6% less than a year earlier. At the end of 2017, experts predict a rise of 2.7% (to $3.464 trillion), although they previously predicted an increase of 3%. The forecast for 2018 is an increase of 2.6% to $3.553 trillion.

Some major trends are converging, including cloud computing, blockchain, digital business and artificial intelligence. In normal circumstances, this should have contributed to an increase in IT costs of more than 2.7%. However, some political uncertainty in global markets has led to the fact that many companies have taken a wait-and-see attitude towards investment in IT, - said John-David Lovelock, vice president of research at Gartner, whose words are quoted in a press release from an analytical company.

According to the expert, increased economic uncertainty generates a stronger difference in IT spending: some companies and users increase costs to take advantage of the opportunities that the crisis provides, while others, on the contrary, reduce or freeze IT budgets.

2016 IT Market Segment Data and Forecast to 2018 - Gartner

The Gartner study also says that sales of systems for data centers in 2016 amounted to $170 billion, which is 0.6% less than a year ago (see table above). The volume of the enterprise software and IT services segments increased by 5.9% and 3.9%, reaching $333 billion and $899 billion, respectively. Sales of PCs, tablets, laptops and mobile phones on a global scale decreased by 9% to $588 billion. The communication services sector recorded a 1 percent decline in supplier revenues - up to $1.38 trillion.^[15]

2014: Gartner forecast: Market to grow 3.2% to $3.8 trillion

Due to some of the signs of recovery presented by the global economy, Gartner gave in April 2014 a forecast for global IT spending in 2014 of $3.8 trillion, which is 3.2% more than in 2013.

Gartner analysts believe consumers will purchase many new devices in 2014; however, compared to previous years, demand for basic and cheaper goods will increase.

The hardware market (including PCs, ultra-mobile devices, mobile phones and tablets) will return to growth in 2014 and reach $689 billion, which is 4.4% more than in 2013 (see table). However, in top-line spending, a shift in the product mix continues to be seen in the marketplace. At the same time, demand for expensive premium phones will slow down, buyers in developed countries prefer mid-range premium products, and in developing countries, low-end phones based on are preferred. Android

The number of users of traditional PCs is decreasing, only the most loyal of them will remain. Consumers as a laptop will mainly buy premium ultrabooks, and as an additional device - a tablet. The main factor in the purchase decision will be price.

Global IT Costs 2013-2014 ($ bn)

Source: Gartner, April 2014

In terms of network equipment for enterprises, cloud and mobile solutions will be the main drivers of the market. Virtualization and cloud solutions will also stimulate demand for Ethernet switches for data centers, and the spread of mobile access points continues to stimulate impressive demand for wireless LAN equipment.

The largest growth (6.9% compared to 2013) will be shown by the enterprise software market. Software types such as, CRM(DBMS DBMS), data integration tools and data quality tools will be in demand. DBMS costs will even exceed operating systems costs, Gartner analysts say, in 2014 this (DBMS) will be the largest segment of the enterprise software market in terms of costs.

In the field of IT services, buyer costs are switched from consulting (project planning) to their implementation (doing projects), and Gartner analysts of sustainable cost growth in this area.

Telecom services are expected to grow slightly in 2014. This is partly due to falling costs for fixed-line services and migration of corporate links to VoIP and Internet communications.

See also

• ICT market of Russia
• IT (Global Market)

Notes