ICT market of Russia

Who is in the ICT sector

The ICT sector includes organizations engaged in the following activities:

• telecommunications (see Communications (Russian market)),
• production of equipment (see Production of ICT equipment in Russia),
• wholesale of goods related to information and communication technologies (hereinafter referred to as ICT),
• provision of information and telecommunication services (see Russian IT market).

As of 2021

Backbone IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

Main article: Backbone IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

Backbone organizations are large corporations and holdings that make a significant contribution to the development of the country's economy. Inclusion in the list of backbone provides the company with access to preferential lending and state guarantees for investment projects, debt refinancing, etc.

Lawmaking in the field of information technology

Main article: Lawmaking in the field of information technology

2024

Boom: Russia's IT industry grew by 63% in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2024, the results of the Russian ICT sector significantly exceeded the indicators of the same period in 2023. In particular, the volume of sales of goods, works, services of the ICT sector in the reporting period amounted to 3564.5 billion rubles, and the growth rate of sales exceeded the average for the economy by 1.6 times, reaching + 33.9% (compared to the level of the first half of 2023). Representatives of the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics shared this information with the TAdviser portal on October 8, 2024.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The positive dynamics of implementation is noted in all segments of the ICT sector as a whole. The largest increase compared to the first six months of 2023 was recorded in the IT industry - + 63.2%. The volume of goods and works sold in the IT industry during the reporting period reached 1743.2 billion rubles. High indicators of dynamics were observed in all types of industry activities. Software developers (providing 55% of IT sales) increased their sales volume compared to the same period in 2023 by 63.0%, in the second quarter the annual growth reached 83.3%. In turn, data processing and information placement services, which form a third of the industry's sales volume, exceeded the value of the first half of 2023 by 61.7%.

The production of ICT products during the reporting period by a third (+ 33.3%) exceeded the level of the same period in 2023. The volume of goods, works, services sold reached 459.9 billion rubles. High growth rates were recorded in the production of communication equipment (+ 45.3% compared to the first half of 2023), electronic equipment elements and printed circuits (+ 36.2%), which account for a third of the segment's sales volume. The production of computers and peripheral equipment is increasing annual growth rates: + 32.7% by the first half of 2023. At the same time, the production of consumer electronics decreased (-9.2%).

The segments of other IT services and telecommunications in the first six months grew by 9.5% (to 147.8 billion rubles) and 8.7% (to 1198.0 billion rubles), respectively. Moreover, if the annual dynamics of the provision of IT services tends to grow (+ 8.7% in the first quarter and + 10.1% in the second), then in the field of telecommunications there is a slowdown (+ 10.1% and + 7.3%, respectively), noted in the ISIEZ HSE.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The average number of employees on average for the second quarter of 2024 exceeded 1.5 million people (+ 8.6%, or + 120.5 thousand people compared to the same period in 2023), reaching, according to analysts, the maximum value over the past five years. The contribution of the IT industry and other IT services to this increase exceeded 90%. The share of ICT workers in the total number of workers in the economy was 3.53%, which is also the highest quarterly value for this period.

source = HSE ISIEZ

In the second quarter of 2024, the average monthly salary of ICT sector workers amounted to 157.2 thousand rubles, which is 1.82 times more than the average wage level in the economy. Compared to the second quart of 2023, salaries in the ICT sector increased by 30.4 thousand rubles (+ 23.9%), which is higher than its growth rate on average in the economy (+ 17.6%).

The volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 1.5 times (by 47.8%) to 600 billion rubles compared to the first half of 2023, which is twice the growth rate in the economy as a whole (+ 24.4^[1]

The Russian ICT sector in the first quarter grew year-on-year by 32.6% to 1.66 trillion rubles

According to the results of the first three months of 2024, the Russian ICT sector confirmed the status of one of the fastest developing segments of the economy. Such information was shared with TAdviser on July 25, 2024 by representatives of the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics of the Higher School of Economics.

source = HSE ISIEZ

Thus, the volume of sales of goods, works, services of the ICT sector for the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 1,663,97 billion rubles, 32.6% exceeding the value for the same quarter of 2023. The annual growth in the ICT sector also surpassed the corresponding indicator for the economy as a whole (+ 25.2% by the first quarter of 2023). The sector's share in the total volume of goods, works and services sold during the analyzed period reached 4.4% (for comparison: in the first quarter of 2023 - 4.1%).

source = HSE ISIEZ

Investments in the ICT sector in the reporting quarter of 2024 amounted to 274.6 billion rubles, an increase of 1.8 times compared to the same period in 2023. The share of the ICT sector in the volume of investments in fixed assets of large and medium-sized organizations reached 5.7% (against 4% in the first quarter of 2023). The growth of investments in the sector almost tripled the growth rate in the economy as a whole by the first quarter of 2023 (+ 79.4% versus + 26.6%, respectively), analysts calculated.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The average number of ICT workers in the first quarter of 2024 reached its highest value in recent years - 1.5 million people (by 117.7 thousand people, or 8.5%, more than in the first quarter of 2023), which is 3.48% of the total number of people employed in the economy. Almost 1.9 times higher than the average level and the average monthly salary of employees of the ICT sector - 154.2 thousand rubles.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The main driver of growth, according to ISIEZ HSE estimates, remains the IT industry: sales in this segment increased by more than one and a half times compared to the first quarter of 2023, and the share in the total volume of goods, works, services sold in the economy - from 1.6 to 2.1%.

The segments of wholesale sales of ICT goods and ICT production continue to develop dynamically (compared to the first quarter of 2023, sales in them increased by 42.8% and 38.9%, respectively). A relatively low but stable positive increase in service sales remains in the telecommunications sector and in the segment of other IT services (+ 10.1% and + 8.7% by the first quarter of 2023, respectively).

According to Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs of the ISIEZ Higher School of Economics, in the first quarter of 2024, the dynamics of the development of the ICT sector in many indicators accelerated relative to the one observed over the full year 2023, which is associated with the continuing increase in the volume of own developments and the sale of domestic products and services in the IT industry (factors - import substitution ON in corporate and, public sector transition to Russian cloud services online platforms) and in the production of ICT equipment and (electronic engineers creation and expansion of assembly lines). In both segments, there is a record dynamics of investments in fixed assets (an increase of 2-2.5 times compared to the first quarter of 2023), and in ICT production - the maximum increase in the number of employees in recent years (+ 12%).^[2]

At the same time, it is worth noting signs of further improvement in the situation with the supply of imported ICT equipment. This may be evidenced by both a record growth in the turnover of wholesale ICT distributors (+ 43% compared to the first quarter of 2023) and a noticeable increase in investments in the telecommunications segment, both in fixed and mobile communications (+ 40 and + 55%, respectively). However, it must be borne in mind that there was a decline in both parameters in the first quarter of 2023, so the current record dynamics is partly due to the low base effect, concluded Tamara Zinina.

2023

The turnover of wholesale ICT distributors in Russia for the year increased by 15.9%

As of mid-2024, Russia is experiencing a recovery in the market and supply chains of information, communication and telecommunications (ICT) equipment, as well as microelectronics. In particular, the turnover of wholesale distributors is growing. This is stated in the materials of the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics, published on July 12, 2024.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, referring to the research data, the situation in the Russian ICT market worsened due to the formed geopolitical situation. Against the background of tougher sanctions and higher import prices, even in dollar terms, with the weakening of the Russian ruble, a slight decrease in real sales of equipment was recorded. Thus, the turnover of wholesale ICT distributors in 2022 decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. But already in 2023, positive changes began to be recorded: turnover in the sector under consideration increased by 15.9%, and in the first four months of 2024 it increased by 39.4% on an annualized basis. At the same time, the volume of investments of Russian companies in the purchase of ICT equipment in 2022 increased at current prices by 5.8%. In 2023, the indicator rose by 23.8%, and in the first quarter of 2024 - by 42.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Negative annual dynamics was recorded in sales of wholesale distributors of electronic and telecommunication equipment (they form 18% of the wholesale trade in ICT goods): here the turnover in 2023 decreased by 20%. This situation is primarily related to the continuing restrictions on the import of telecom equipment, including base stations, as well as to changes in the schemes for its purchase, when telecom operators organize deliveries on their own, without the participation of wholesale distributors.

In 2023, the ICT equipment production sector has heterogeneous dynamics. Thus, in the direction of computer equipment and other computer equipment, sales growth amounted to 50.3%. The microelectronics segment recorded an increase of 54.6%. At the same time, in the field of communication equipment, growth was only 2.9%.

The authors of the study emphasize that as of the first half of 2024, Russian consumers do not experience problems with providing ICT equipment, components and microelectronics. Supply chains were restored thanks to parallel imports, as well as through purchases from alternative Asian suppliers of the "second and third echelons." However, the restructuring of routes has a downside: the change in channels is accompanied by a complication of logistics and an increase in the number of intermediaries, which leads to a significant increase in the cost of products. The Russian market is also developing thanks to investment projects to create its own production of ICT equipment in the country. But as of 2024, such initiatives are associated mainly with the use of an import component base.

High growth rates in the production of computers and other computer equipment (1.5 times) are the result of the completion of large import-substituting investment projects launched in 2022. The volume of telecom equipment production in 2023 almost did not change with a multiple increase in investments (2.2 times), which, according to expectations, will increase output in the future. Investments in the production of an electronic component base have grown even more significantly (2.7 times), "says Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs at the Higher School of Economics.

In the software and IT services sector, official imports in 2023 almost halved compared to 2021 - from $5.2 billion to $2.7 billion. At the same time, the volume of sales of domestic products and services increased significantly - by 30.3% compared to 2022. And in January-April 2024, growth was recorded at 55.9% compared to the same period in 2023. The curtailment of projects for the introduction of foreign software was compensated by sales and implementation of circulation domestic software, custom development and support services for IT systems, and an increase in demand for the Russian cloud infrastructure (IaaS). The audience and monetization in consumer online services increased. Domestic companies seek to support the performance of locally deployed foreign IT systems, but the trend towards import substitution, according to experts, is irreversible. The increase in the real volume of IT development is also evidenced by the continuous growth in the number of industry personnel in 2023.

At the end of 2023, the ICT sector maintained positive development dynamics, which allows us to talk about successful adaptation to new conditions. IT companies have increased the volume of investment investments by 1.5 times: even with an adjustment for the rise in the cost of purchased equipment and an increase in the salaries of IT specialists, the trend remains positive, Zinina emphasizes.

During 2023, the average number of ICT sector employees amounted to 1415 thousand people, which is 80.9 thousand people, or 6.2%, more than the average for 2022. Throughout 2023, the average number of ICT sector employees increased. In 2023, almost two-thirds of ICT workers (871.8 thousand people, or 61.6%) were employed in the IT industry and other IT services. The telecommunications segment employed an average of 320.8 thousand people, or 22.7% of the total number of ICT workers. The production segment accounted for 173.6 thousand people - 12.3% of the total.^[3]

The volume of the Russian ICT sector increased by 19.6% to 6478.9 billion rubles

At the end of 2023, the growth rate of the Russian ICT sector was almost twice as high as in the economy as a whole: at the end of the year, the growth rate gap was 1.8 times (+ 19.6% and + 11.0%, respectively). As a result, the share of the ICT sector in the total volume of sales of goods, works, services increased from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.4% in 2023, and in the total volume of investments - from 4.0% to 4.5%. Such data were shared with TAdviser on May 14, 2024 by the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics, which were obtained based on the analysis of operational statistics of the Russian ICT sector.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The analysis as a whole showed that the volume of sold goods, works, services of the ICT sector by 19.6% (1060.9 billion rubles) exceeded the indicator of 2022, amounting to 6478.9 billion rubles. Throughout the year, the growth rate grew from quarter to quarter. At the same time, the highest growth rates were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 - + 31.6% compared to the same indicator in 2022. A high annual increase was recorded in each month of the last quarter of the year (from + 25% to + 39%).

source = HSE ISIEZ

According to the researchers, the excess of the results of 2022 was recorded in all the main segments of the ICT sector (the exception was only wholesale trade, which forms no more than 0.5% of the sale of goods (services) of its own production in the ICT sector). The highest growth was in the IT industry (+ 30.9%) and ICT production (+ 16.9%). Sales of goods, works, services in the segment of other IT services increased by 12.5%, in the field of telecommunications - by 10.5%. For most segments of the ICT sector, the fourth quarter was the most productive in 2023. The exception was ICT production: the growth rate decreased by almost half compared to the previous quarter (from + 24.0 to + 13.7%) due to the high level of the fourth quarter of 2022.

source = HSE ISIEZ

Throughout 2023, the average number of ICT sector employees increased - mainly due to the IT industry. On average, the number is estimated at 1.4 million people per year, which is 6.2% more than in 2022. Against the background of an increase in the total number of people employed in the economy, the share of the ICT sector also increased. So, in 2023 it amounted to 3.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points. above the level of 2022.

source = HSE ISIEZ

The volume of investments in fixed assets increased compared to 2022 by a third (+ 33.0%) to 1161.6 billion rubles. The maximum annual growth was recorded in the third quarter (+ 61.2%), in the fourth, due to the high base value (in the fourth quarter of 2022, the average volume of investments turned out to be more than twice as high as in previous quarters), the dynamics slowed down, but remained at a high level: + 28.3% by the fourth quarter of 2022 with a double increase compared to the third quarter of 2023.

The annual growth rate of investments in the ICT sector was 1.7 times higher than in the economy as a whole (+ 19.4%). As a result, the ICT sector's share of total fixed capital investment in large and medium-sized organizations rose from 4.0% in 2022 to 4.5% in 2023.

The key investors in the ICT sector remain the sphere telecommunications (forms 48% of the sector's investments) and the IT industry (35%). The annual growth of investments in these segments amounted to + 18.2% and + 46.7%, respectively. The largest dynamics was shown by the ICT production segment - an increase of 1.8 times (forms 8% of investments). Distributors of wholesale trade in ICT goods (-28.1% by 2022) significantly reduced investment activity in 2023.

source = HSE ISIEZ

In 2023, the average monthly salary of ICT workers was 130.1 thousand rubles, which is 17.5 thousand rubles. (+ 15.5%) more than in 2022. Analysts estimate that wages in the ICT sector exceed the average for the economy as a whole for 2023 by 1.76 times. In December 2023, salaries in the ICT sector reached their maximum level of 185.6 thousand rubles, which is more than 40% higher than in October and November due to the payment of annual bonuses. Compared to December 2022, the figure increased by almost a quarter (+ 23.7%).

You can get acquainted in detail with the results of the study of ISIEZ HSE at the link. In the interactive version ^[4] presents the annual development dynamics of the ICT sector and its segments from 2021. The work uses materials, Rosstat as well as own calculations of ISIEZ HSE according to Rosstat.

Putin instructed to expand the practice of purchasing Russian ICT services

On September 3, 2023, the President Russia Vladimir Putin approved a list of instructions following a meeting with the heads of Russian manufacturing enterprises. Among other things, we are talking about expanding the practice of purchasing Russian ICT services state by customers and state-owned companies.

The document refers to the integrated maintenance of equipment and information infrastructure, the provision of remote access to such infrastructure, as well as the manufacture of printed materials. In accordance with the decree, the government must prepare proposals, the implementation of which will stimulate state customers when purchasing relevant services to make a choice in favor of suppliers who are ready to provide them "with priority use of domestic goods and software."

Vladimir Putin

In addition, Vladimir Putin approved a list of instructions following a meeting with scientists and a plenary session of the Forum for Future Technologies. The government needs to ensure the approval of a national project to shape the data economy for the period up to 2030. This program provides for a number of initiatives, including:

• Data collection, including using highly sensitive sensors based on quantum sensors;
• Data transfer and development of new generation communication systems;
• Creation of a computing and information storage infrastructure using domestic equipment, technologies and software, including cloud platforms and data centers;
• Data security, including the use of quantum encryption technology;
• Improvement of domestic data standards and protocols;
• Development of algorithms for information processing and analysis, including those based on the use of artificial intelligence;
• Creation of domestic code repositories.

As part of the project, it is planned to provide tools for comprehensive support for the development of the digital economy, AI platforms, quantum computing and communications. In addition, basic research in the field of computing technologies will be carried out.^[5]

The Russian IT industry grew by more than 6% over the year

In the first three months of 2023, the Russian ICT sector maintained the positive annual dynamics set in the second half of 2022. Such data with TAdviser on July 28, 2023 were shared by representatives of the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics of the Higher School of Economics, who, based on quarterly statistics, analyzed the trends in the development of the ICT sector and its segments.

The ICT sector increased in the first quarter of 2023 from 3.5% to 4.1% share in the total volume of goods, works and services sold. In total, the organizations of the sector produced them by 1.25 trillion rubles, which, according to analysts, exceeds the level of the pre-sanction first quarter of 2022 by 3.4%.

ICT trends in Q1 2023
Illustration: HSE ISIEZ

The annual dynamics of the ICT sector in Q1 2023 remained positive, although it slowed down slightly. In many ways, the effect of a high base played - in pre-sanction January-February 2022, the sector still showed growth, and in March sales increased multiply against the background of rush demand on the eve of restrictions, - said Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs of the Higher School of Economics.

According to her, the differentiation between the segments of the sector and their reactions to new conditions is more and more clearly indicated.

In general, according to analysts, all key segments of the sector provided positive dynamics in the sale of goods, works and services - the IT industry (6.1% increase), ICT production (4.7%) and telecommunications (5.7%). In the latter, all types of communication supported the growth - fixed (+ 4.1%), mobile (+ 6.7%) and satellite (+ 14.1%).

The IT industry continues to grow in all respects - sales, investments, headcount. A serious decline in software imports (minus 46% by the first quarter of 2022 in dollar terms) and its implementation projects continues to be compensated by an increase in the scale of custom development, import-substituting projects, support and development services for previously deployed foreign IT systems by Russian teams. In the future, we can expect an increase in sales of circulation domestic software and further growth of the IT industry due to domestic demand, says Tamara Zinina.

As she said, the telecom company manages to maintain a stable volume of revenues from services, but investment investments have decreased. In terms of mobile operators, this is primarily due to the impossibility of purchasing imported equipment (base stations). Fixed Internet operators have maintained investment growth at current prices, but taking into account the rise in import prices (due to the growth of the dollar, the complexity of logistics and the growth in the number of intermediaries), the real volume of equipment purchases is estimated to be approximately at the level of last year. The gap between investment opportunities (taking into account weakly growing or stagnating incomes) and the needs of operators (taking into account the strong rise in the cost of equipment and software) is likely to increase, the expert believes.

The volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 10.7% compared to the first quarter of 2022. The largest contribution to the increase in capital investments was made by the IT industry (+ 24.4%) and other IT services (+ 72.7%).

In 2022, a number of large investment projects were implemented in the production of computer equipment, computers, peripheral equipment (based on imported components and ECB). As a result, in the first quarter of 2023, there was a multiple increase in production in this segment, Tamara Zinina noted. As statistics show, at the beginning of 2023, investments in the production of microelectronics and telecom equipment intensified. In the medium term, according to the expert, this may give an increase in the corresponding supplies to the domestic market.

The average number of employees of ICT sector organizations continues to grow for two consecutive quarters. During the first three months of 2023, it increased relative to the fourth quarter of 2022 by 49.4 thousand people (+ 3.7%). The annual increase was also 3.7%. In both cases, the IT industry provided positive dynamics.

It is worth noting a strong increase in the average salary in the segment - by almost 1/3 per year, which may indicate a shortage of relevant specialists, which can become a limiting factor for the further increase in import-substituting production of ICT equipment and electronics, - concluded the Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs ISIEZ NRU HSE.[6]

How the Russian ICT industry will develop. 3 scenarios

The Russian industry of information and communication technologies can develop according to one of three scenarios. Two of them are the most favorable. Such a forecast at the end of July 2023 was announced by specialists from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASP) and the Internet Initiatives Development Fund (IIDF).

The target scenario is possible when the most favorable macroeconomic conditions occur. In particular, for this, the crisis in the global economy should end, and the sanctions pressure on Russia should weaken. In addition, the target scenario requires a policy to stimulate the development of the ICT industry.

Until 2030, the Russian industry of information and communication technologies can develop according to one of three scenarios

The authors of the study believe that such a combination of factors should create the conditions for an accelerated increase in investment in the industry to 13-16% annually in 2024 and 9-12% in 2026-2030.

The inertial scenario, according to experts, is possible only if the events that began on February 24, 2022, as well as the weakening of the sanctions influence, but with the restoration of a tough financial policy in Russia by analogy with the 2010s, are completed. According to the inertial scenario, investment activity is about 8.5% - this is 1-1.5 percentage points lower than with the target development of events.

In this case, the level of export of ICT products will be significantly lower than in the target scenario.

A crisis scenario can occur under both poor economic and political conditions, coupled with self-decision-making policies and limited resources for development. In this case, the level of investment in the fixed capital of the ICT market will be low, but the lack can be compensated for by state support.

Experts warn that in this scenario, the level of technological development will be low due to foreign policy confrontation and resource shortages. In fact, due to problems with updating equipment in the ICT industry, even some rollback is possible.

Anton Yakimov, deputy general director of the T1 holding for technological development, in a conversation with RBC, noted that all three described scenarios for the development of the ICT industry in Russia have "not very high chances of implementation."

If the first two scenarios assume favorable external conditions, which is unlikely to happen until 2030, then the third describes exaggerated negative events, when at the same time everything is bad with both external and internal conditions, Yakimov draws attention.

According to him, the fourth scenario will be most likely, in which external conditions will remain "quite tough" until 2030, but the growth of the IT sector within Russia will continue at a good pace. At the same time, Yakimov noted that his forecast does not take into account the telecom component of the market: "in this area, with a high probability, there will be stagnation."

Experts identified three scenarios for the development of the ICT sector in Russia: targeted, inertial and crisis

SKB Kontur CEO Mikhail Srodnykh noted that now for the development of the ICT industry it is necessary to solve the problem with a shortage of qualified personnel - "for various reasons, it is only aggravated, including due to the fact that we are now experiencing the consequences of the demographic pit." To do this, you need to grow specialists "from scratch, from school," says Srodnykh.

You need to go to universities, create partner programs with them, accept students for internships and give them specific work tasks. Personnel sovereignty is, in fact, a guarantee of the country's technological independence, and not only in the IT industry, says the head of SKB Kontur.

Anton Fomin, a business analyst at F + tech-Marvel Group of Companies, proposed his most likely scenario for the development of the industry, which, "is inherently closer to the crisis, but calling it such is to overly dramatize the situation." Fomin claims that in the current conditions of sanctions pressure, the telecom industry is forced to develop according to the only scenario true for the well-being of the country - "Russia is doing everything itself^[7]

2022

The volume of the Russian ICT market grew by 8.4% to 5417.9 billion rubles

In the ICT sector, the volume of products sold in 2022 amounted to 5.4 trillion rubles. The annual increase in monetary terms by 421.8 billion rubles (or + 8.4%) was slightly less than to economy in general (+ 8.8%); however, during the period of economic restrictions (from the second to the fourth quarters), the dynamics of the sector exceeded the value of Russia (+ 6.5% versus + 1.2%). TAdviser Since April 11, 2023, such data have been shared by representatives of the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ), HSE which, based on quarterly statistics, monitors the dynamics of the development of the Russian ICT sector.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

According to the conclusion of ISIEZ analysts, at the end of 2022, the sector's indicators turned out to be significantly better than the forecast estimates formed in the spring (at the beginning of the imposition of sanctions); but the dynamics vary markedly across segments.

In general, all its key segments contributed to accelerating the development of the ICT sector by the end of the year: IT, telecom, production. The largest annual growth is demonstrated by the IT industry (+ 22%), a steady positive trend in it was observed throughout the year. With an increase (by 4.3%), telecom companies also completed the year; according to experts, the fourth quarter was the most successful for telecom. ICT production decreased by 6.9% compared to 2021: the main decline fell in the first half of the year, but by the fourth quarter it was possible to return to a noticeable positive trend.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

In 2022, 1.3 million people worked in the ICT sector, which is 4.2% (or 54 thousand people) more than in 2021. The sector's share in the total number of employees in the economy amounted to 3.1% (+ 0.1 percentage points to the level of 2021). The determining contribution to the growth of the ICT sector staff was made by the IT industry.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

According to analysts, in 2022, ICT sector organizations invested 910.1 billion rubles in fixed assets, which is 10.9% (or 89.1 billion rubles) more than in 2021. After the decline in the first three quarters of 2022 (-5% compared to the same period in 2021) in the fourth quarter, investments grew by more than a quarter (+ 27.7%), which made it possible to end the year with a positive result (+ 10.9%). The main growth in investment also fell on the IT industry.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

In general, according to Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs of the NIEZ Higher School of Economics, at the end of 2022, the negative trends observed at the beginning of the year, the ICT sector managed to overcome and maintain the role of a driver of economic growth.^[8]

Russian IT industry is growing again

In the third quarter of 2022, the ICT sector managed to overcome the negative trends observed in the second quarter, and, despite the sanctions restrictions, to ensure an increase in sales volume for the year by 6.9%, and compared to the previous quarter - by 5%. This data was shared with TAdviser on January 12, 2023 at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics.

Against the background of negative dynamics in the economy as a whole (-0.3 and -3.6%, respectively), the share of the ICT sector in the total volume of goods, works and services sold increased from 3.8% in the second quarter of 2022 to 4.1% in the third. Large and medium-sized enterprises of the ICT sector sold goods, performed works, services in-house for the amount of about 1.28 trillion rubles, of which 80% falls on the IT industry and the telecommunications sector (505 and 520 billion rubles, respectively).

The largest increase in annual terms is still demonstrated by the IT industry (+ 21%, or + 88 billion rubles, compared to the third quarter of 2021).

Among the reasons for the almost continuous growth of the IT industry throughout the entire nine months of 2022 are the increase in the scale of domestic software implementations, custom development, an increase in demand for the Russian cloud infrastructure (IaaS), as well as the expansion of the audience of Russian Internet companies and digital platforms (against the background of the departure of Western).

The largest increase in the third quarter of 2022 was recorded in the field of computer software development (31.8% compared to the third quarter of 2021). This segment accounts for almost two-thirds (64.9%) of the total volume goods, works and services sold. In September 2022, software sales exceeded the values ​ ​ of March, when there was a rush of demand immediately after the departure of Western vendors.

In the segment of data processing, provision of information placement services, which provides 29% of the volume of implementation, there was a slight growth as compared to the third quarter of 2021 (+ 4.8%).

The decrease was demonstrated by the activity of managing computer equipment (0.2% of the volume of sales): for example, the indicator of the volume of sales of services in the segment decreased by 65.9% compared to the third quarter of 2021 and by 27.1% compared to the second quarter of 2022.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

In the third quarter of 2022, the IT industry also maintained positive annual dynamics of investments in fixed assets (+ 33.7%). The volume of investments amounted to 53 billion rubles, which is close to the maximum value of this year achieved in the second quarter (56 billion rubles).

Telecommunications continue to occupy most of the goods and services sold in the ICT sector. For the first time since the beginning of the year, the industry experienced positive quarterly dynamics (+ 2.7% compared to the second quarter of 2022). As for annual growth, it remains low, but positive (+ 0.6% by the third quarter of 2021).

Source: HSE ISIEZ

In the telecommunications industry, in all observed types of communication (fixed, wireless, satellite), the volume of investments increased compared to the second quarter of 2022 (+ 8.5%, + 8.6% and + 19.0%, respectively), reaching 93, 4 billion rubles.

After a long fall, the production of ICT goods reached the level of the third quarter of 2021 (+ 3.6%) and exceeded the value of the second quarter of 2022 by 13.2% (up to 179.8 billion rubles), which is most likely due to the increase in import-substituting industries and the establishment of supplies of components. In this segment, a quarterly increase in investments in fixed assets is also noticeable (by 44.5% compared to the second quarter of 2022 to 12.8 billion rubles).

Source: HSE ISIEZ

After more than six months since the beginning of the introduction of sanctions restrictions and the departure of vendors, the Russian IT industry continues to demonstrate an increase in sales volumes due to increased investments in domestic software, an increase in the volume of IT services (development, maintenance, technical support of IT systems, custom development), demand for Russian cloud infrastructure (IaaS). By the third quarter, there were signs of a recovery in the import of ICT goods (including components and microelectronics): the production of computing equipment began to grow and the turnover of wholesale ICT distributors slightly increased relative to the level of the second quarter, - said Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs of the Higher School of Economics.

Source: HSE ISIEZ

The described positive developments were overshadowed by negative trends in the labor market: there was a decrease in the average number of employees in the ICT sector (by 1% compared to the previous quarter), coupled with a decrease in wages (by 4.4 thousand rubles).^[9]

Employment in the ICT sector continued to decline on the back of the previous quarter, mainly due to telecommunications. The slight decline in the IT workforce that has begun is most likely an echo of the spring wave of migration - this lag can be explained by the fact that many IT specialists continued to work for domestic companies in the first months after departure. That is why the data for the third quarter and even for October do not yet allow you to see the full picture - it will appear at the end of 2022, - concluded Tamara Zinina.

Rush growth in demand and investment in fixed assets in the first quarter

According to the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics of the Higher School of Economics, in the 1st quarter of 2022, the sanctions restrictions imposed by the United States and its satellite countries after the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine partially affected the results of the ICT sector: the IT industry was "in the black," but problems with the purchase of ICT equipment and components affected.

Large and medium-sized enterprises of the ICT sector sold goods, completed works, services in the amount of 1300 billion rubles. The sector maintained high growth rates in terms of sales and number of employees: 24.6 and 5.7%, respectively, compared to Q1 2021.

IT companies made a decisive contribution to the positive dynamics of product sales. They maintained last year's growth rates, and in March 2022 they increased sales multiple times against the background of rush demand for software in anticipation of the departure of Western vendors. At the same time, there was a decrease in the production and wholesale sales of ICT goods - primarily due to import restrictions, including components.

There was a positive trend in the volume of investments in fixed assets of the ICT sector - an increase in 3.1% compared to the 1st quarter of 2021.

Investments in the IT and ICT industries grew the most - 1.6 and 1.7 times, respectively. At the same time, in the field of telecommunications, which forms almost two-thirds of the total investment of the sector, the decline outlined in Q3-IV of 2021 continued. The negative dynamics was aggravated by the violation of supply chains and the suspension of supplies of foreign telecom equipment.

"The situation in the ICT sector in the first quarter of this year can be described as" a rush demand for software, the beginning of problems with iron and ECB, "says expert T. Zinina." We see that the IT industry has felt extremely good so far - in March, the demand for Russian circulation software has grown multiply. "

2021

The gross added value of the Russian ICT sector reached 3.7 trillion rubles

The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics analyzed the results of the ICT sector in 2021 on such key parameters as the volume of production and provision of services, the scale of small businesses, and the structure of personnel. The results can be extrapolated to assess the viability of the sector under sanctions restrictions. The HSE announced this on June 15, 2022.

The sector of information and communication technologies (ICT) has become the leading in the Russian economy. For 2015-2021, its growth was 35% against GDP growth as a whole by 7% (in real terms).

In 2021, the ICT sector continued the trend of previous years to increase the growth rate of gross value added: growth in real terms amounted to 10.8% (against 6.9% in 2020 and 5.7% in 2019) and reached 3.7 trillion rubles, or 3.2% of GDP.

The positive dynamics of the added value of the ICT sector in 2021 was provided by organizations producing goods related to digital technologies (+ 39.3% in constant prices), IT companies (+ 11.6%), telecommunications companies (+ 2.5%).

The decrease in GVA compared to 2020 was observed only in the wholesale trade in ICT goods (-25.2%), which is explained by the high value of the baseline indicator due to the demand for goods related to digital technologies during the pandemic (in 2020, an increase of 1.6 times compared to a year earlier).

The IT industry provided consistently positive dynamics of the sector. In 2018-2021, its share in the GVA sector increased by more than a third (from 31 to 41%), the volume of sales of products of its own production of IT companies - 1.7 times (in constant prices). About 60% of the industry's products, or 1.2 trillion rubles, were created by software developers, which is 1.4 times higher than the level of 2020 (in constant prices).

In 2021, positive shifts were outlined in the field of telecommunications. In 2021, for the first time since 2014, the GVA of the industry overcame negative dynamics (in 2019 it was weakly positive: + 0.1%), showing growth in real terms by 2.5% - due to an increase in the volume of consumption of mobile services and access to the network.

The most significant increase in GVA is noted in the production of ICT equipment (+ 39.3%), which made it possible to overcome the five-year lag behind the volume of GVA in 2015 (2020 by 2015 - 89%, 2021 by 2015 - 124%). This was due to a noticeable expansion in the production of consumer electronics and communication equipment (an increase of 1.9 times and 1.5 times, respectively).

The "personnel" consequences of the sanctions of the spring of 2022 (layoffs, relocation) are largely related to activities in the Russian market of organizations in foreign ownership. The IT industry may be most affected, including software developers as the most mobile and globally competitive group of professionals. According to reports, about 88 thousand people. worked in IT companies - residents of the Russian Federation who are in foreign or joint Russian and foreign property - this is 14% of employees of the IT industry and other IT services. Among them, in particular, employees of Russian development centers or divisions of global software vendors providing implementation and technical support services in Russia. In the production of ICT equipment, on the contrary, the share of foreign property employed in organizations is minimal - only 3%, or 4 thousand people.

Comments Tamara Zinina, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategies and Programs of the National Research University Higher School of Economics: By 2022, the Russian ICT sector was formed as a dynamically developing segment of the economy, the basis of which is the fast-growing IT industry.

A positive trend in recent years has also been observed in the production of ICT. This, in general, gives a certain chance for the sustainability of the sector before sanctions. At the same time, taking into account the very noticeable dependence on ICT imports in its development and against the background of the declining presence of foreign companies in 2022, a serious restructuring of the ICT sector should be expected.^[10]

Exports of ICT goods and services reach $9.9 billion

Import of ICT goods, services and software to Russia reached 2.62 trillion rubles

The total import of ICT goods, services and software to Russia in 2021 reached 2.62 trillion rubles, or about 70% of the gross added value of the sector, against 64% in 2019 and 67% in 2020. This was reported in the report of experts from the Higher School of Economics (HSE), which was prepared under the leadership of Pavel Rudnik, deputy head of the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics. The data was released at the end of April 2022.

According to the study, excerpts from which lead, by Kommersant 2021, computer services and software of the Russian Federation were imported mainly from Western countries, which in the first quarter of 2022 imposed sanctions: the dependence of domestic organizations on them is about 68%. In "commodity" imports, the share of ICT is different: almost 85% falls on countries (Asia 65% -, China 8.4% -, Vietnam 3.7% -), but Taiwan most electronic engineers are based on technology and intellectual property of Western companies. Their dominance in a number of areas (,, etc.) Cisco IBM Intel can slow down development, including, and, artificial intelligence according to the 5G communication networks supercomputer quantum technologies authors of the report.

In their opinion, the solution to the problem is the most effective use of already purchased equipment (supercomputers, data centers, etc.), including the launch of "specialized collective use centers" and "sharing" of demanded equipment of state organizations and state-owned companies.

HSE experts estimated the share of imports of ICT goods, services and software to Russia

The HSE report notes that in 2015-2021, the growth rate of the information and communication technology market exceeded the GDP growth rate: 35% versus 7% in real terms. In 2021, the sector reached gross value added in the amount of about 3.72 trillion rubles. According to experts, there is a strong dependence on foreign software - both application like enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems and the basic one (operating systems, database management, etc.), as well as on the electronic component base and telecommunications equipment.

2020

Leading countries in purchasing Russian ICT products and services

In 2020, the export of services related to information and communication technologies (ICT) from Russia amounted to $5.94 billion against $5.49 billion a year earlier (a decrease of 8%). At the same time, the supply of ICT equipment decreased by 27% - from $2.51 billion to $1.83 billion. This was reported at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics. In their calculations, experts referred to the data of Rosstat, the FCS of Russia and the Bank of Russia. Read more here.

The share of the ICT sector in Russian GDP reached a record 3.1% - ISIEZ HSE

The share of the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector in Russian GDP at the end of 2020 reached a record 3.1% (against 2.9% a year earlier), which is comparable to the indicators of leading countries. This is evidenced by the data of the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics.

As of October 2022

As of October 2022

According to experts, gross value added (GVA) in the ICT industry in 2020 compared to 2019 increased by 2.8% (in constant prices). This rise was facilitated by the IT market (an increase of 12.7% in constant prices), ICT equipment manufacturers (+ 4.1%) and ICT wholesale (+ 30.9%). At the same time, the GVA of the telecommunications sector decreased in constant prices by 1.6%.

Despite the difficult economic situation, the ICT sector has shown sustainability in 2020, which is associated with a sharply increased demand for digital goods and services among the population and business. In the coming years, we should expect further growth of the ICT sector as a driver of the planned large-scale digitalization of the economy and social sphere, the study notes.

According to analysts at ISIEZ HSE, in the last decade before the start of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the information and communication technology market showed stable growth (with the exception of the crisis year 2016), ahead of GDP dynamics by 2-4 percentage points.

The trend of accelerated development of the sector was in line with the global one. However, the coronavirus crisis has radically changed the situation on the world market. The restrictions introduced in the countries caused a decrease in demand for goods and services from both the population and organizations. According to the Gartner agency, the global ICT market declined by 8% by the end of 2020, having rolled back to the level of 2015-2016. With regard to Russia, pessimistic forecasts did not materialize.

According to the results of the "covid" 2020, the ICT sector was included in the group of leaders in the dynamics of gross value added (GVA). Only the financial sector, manufacturers of medicines, furniture and chemical products managed to achieve a higher indicator, experts say.

Starting from April-May 2021, with the growing demand for IT services, web services, due to the massive transition to remote work and the introduction of restrictions on movement, IT companies compensated for the losses of the beginning of the year and were able to significantly exceed the sales volumes of 2019: according to the results of the half year - by 10%, in January-September - by 22% (in actual prices). The dynamics of computer services exports also remained positive, but with a lag in import growth rates: 112.7 and 127.1% compared to January-September 2019, respectively. By the end of 2020, the surplus (+ $688 million) remained, although its volume decreased by a quarter.

In the telecom industry, researchers noted moderately positive dynamics in the volume of services sold in January-September 2020 (an increase of 2-5%) and an average monthly increase of 9% in October-December. At the end of the year, the volume of services for data transmission, access to the Internet using wired and mobile communications increased by 3-6 times. The demand for wired telephone communication has halved, IP telephony - five times. The expected high demand for ICT goods in wholesale trade did not subside throughout 2020. The most popular were personal computers: the turnover of companies specializing in the wholesale of computers, peripherals to them and software increased 1.8 times.

The production of ICT equipment during the first nine months of 2020 showed a decrease compared to the corresponding period of 2019 (by almost 4% in actual prices). This decline was offset by the growth of the industry in the fourth quarter, which provided positive annual dynamics.^[11]

The Ministry of Labor recognized IT companies and telecom operators as continuously operating organizations

The weekend announced on March 25, 2020 by President Vladimir Putin in connection with the spread of the coronavirus infection COVID-19 will not apply to employees of IT companies. This follows from the supplement to the recommendations to employees and employers, published by the Ministry of Labor on March 27, 2020.

The non-working day regime, according to the document, does not apply to employees who ensure the continuity of the production and technological cycle in a number of organizations. Among them are continuously operating organizations, which, in particular, include those that carry out activities in the field of information technology and communications.

The non-working day regime, according to the document, in particular, does not apply to employees who ensure the continuity of the production and technological cycle, in continuously operating organizations, including IT companies and telecom operators. (photo - tulapressa.ru)

Employers have the right, in agreement with employees, to determine the need for the participation of a particular employee in a continuous production process, the document says.

Employees performing remote work, in agreement with the employer, have the right to continue it during the period of the presidential decree "On declaring non-working days in the Russian Federation" with the obligatory observance of the requirements of the Ministry of Health and Rospotrebnadzor for the prevention of a new coronavirus infection.

2019: ICT market in Russia reaches $47 billion

In 2019, the volume of the Russian information and communication technology market reached $47.05 billion, which was the largest result among all countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), IDC analysts calculated. Read more here.

The volume of the Russian information and communication technologies market reached $47.05 billion

2017: ICT sector employs 1.2 million people, share of GDP - 2.7%

According to 2017 data, 1.2 million people are employed in the sector (1.7% of the employed population of Russia), the volume of gross value added (GVA) is 2211 billion rubles. (2.7% of GDP). In terms of share in GDP, the sector is comparable to energy supply ( 2.9% of GDP), one third lower than agriculture ( 4.4%), the financial sector ( 4.2%), twice - construction (6.4%), four - extractive industry ( 10.4%).

In most developed countries, the ICT sector plays a significantly more important role - its share in the GVA of the business sector in OECD countries is 1.6 times higher than in Russia (5.4 and 3.4%, respectively). From the leaders in this indicator - the Republic of Korea, Sweden, Finland - our country lags behind 2-3 times.

In 2017, the GVA growth of the ICT sector (2.8% in constant prices) almost doubled the GDP growth (1.6%). The main contribution to the positive dynamics of the sector was made by the IT industry, showing growth of 12%. Exceeded the results of 2016 and organizations providing other information services (repair of ICT equipment, maintenance of web portals, etc.) or engaged in the wholesale of goods related to ICT. GVA of ICT production amounted to only 93.1% of the level of 2016, the telecommunications industry - 99.2%.

Source: HSE calculations according to Rosstat

In the industry structure produced by the GVA sector, the largest share belongs to the telecommunications sector (43%) and the IT industry (33%). ICT production provides 12%, wholesale trade in ICT goods - 8%, about 4% are in other ICT services.

2014: Orange predicts growth of ICT services market in Russia

According to an analytical study by Orange Business Services (Orange Business Services, Equant), the volume of the Russian ICT services market in the B2B segment in 2014 will amount to about 635 billion rubles, which is 7.4% more than in 2013.

According to forecasts, the market will demonstrate growth by an average of 6% and will reach 750 billion rubles by 2017. The main driver of the market development in the three-year perspective will be IT services, the average annual growth rate of which will be 10% against 2% for telecommunications services. In 2017, the IT services market in Russia will amount to 370 billion rubles, telecommunications services in the B2B sector - 380 billion rubles.

Telecommunications services will grow with fixed data services. Their growth is expected at 6.3% per year - from 72 billion in 2013 to 92 billion rubles in 2017. Among fixed data services, the highest growth rates until 2017 will demonstrate services:

• IP VPN (13,4%),
• Ethernet (24,3%),
• broadband (4%).

Among the drivers of the development of the IT services market are outsourcing, consulting services and technical support. The outsourcing market in Russia is only 8%, but will demonstrate an average growth of 17% until 2017. The growth in demand for consulting services will average 12% per year.

IT and telecom services market will continue to grow in the coming years. Difficult economic conditions and sanctions do not limit, but rather change the direction of market development, "commented Olivier Quesson, Commercial Director of Orange Business Services in Russia and the CIS countries. "As IT budgets shrink, customers are looking for ways to optimize costs, looking for solutions with good payback and high efficiency."

2013

According to Orange (December 2014), in 2013, the IT services segment in Russia accounted for 249 billion rubles, and telecommunications services in the B2B sector - 341 billion rubles.

2012

• ICT competencies as a factor in the socio-economic development of Russia (presentation), June 2012

• ICT competencies as a factor in the socio-economic development of Russia (brief abstract), June 2012

According to the results of 2012, the volume of sales of the largest companies participating in the ranking "Russian Information and Communication Technologies" ^[12] amounted to 453 billion rubles, which is 21.5% more than according to comparable data for 2011, according to the review of the information and communication technologies (ICT) market prepared by the rating agency "Expert RA."

This is the first deterioration in development dynamics since the last economic crisis. In previous years, the revenue of the rating participants grew steadily: growth in 2010 amounted to 27.5%, in 2011 - 30.7%. The slowdown is due to overall investment stagnation. In 2012, according to Rosstat, the growth of investments in non-financial assets was almost 5.5 times lower than a year earlier. At the same time, private business has begun to more economically approach IT costs, and companies with state participation prefer to give orders to their structures. At the same time, the introduction of a new public procurement reporting format (223-FZ), requiring increased transparency of regulated procurement, has not yet had a strong impact on the market.

Expert RA analyst Vartan Khanferyan: "Despite the decline in market growth, there is an increase in the revenue of IT companies in all the segments under consideration. Market participants attribute the positive dynamics to complex infrastructure projects, the introduction of business applications, as well as the growing popularity of new IT in the framework of mobile work, virtualization and cloud computing. "

The most dynamically developing segment of the market in 2012 was the software production sector, in the development of which the preferential rates of developers on insurance premiums continue to play a role. According to Expert RA, in 2012 the increase in total income in this area amounted to 22.7%, and their volume - 37.9 billion rubles. At the same time, 24.4 billion rubles fell on project software (an increase of 24.9%) and 13.5 billion rubles on finished software (an increase of 18%).

The largest share of IT companies' revenue is provided by the services segment: consulting, integration, support and training bring almost half of the total revenue of the largest IT companies - 43%. However, the growth in this sector in 2012 was only 13% (in 2011 - 26.7%).

Among the 20 largest companies, the highest growth rates in 2012 were shown by NVision Group (203.1%) and Maykor (87.5%).

2009: Turnover of 1.8 trillion rubles, share in GDP 4.6%

In February 2010, Alexander Narukavnikov, Director of the Department of Economics and Finance of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, announced that the turnover of the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry in Russia in 2009 amounted to 1.8 trillion rubles. (an increase of 2%). ICT's share of GDP was 4.6%.

Revenues from communication services in 2009 amounted to 1.3 trillion rubles. (an increase of 6.4%). Thus, 500 billion rubles remain on the IT market, 28% of the total revenue of the ICT industry.

Recall that in 2008, the ministry was counting on a significant growth in the IT market, believing that it would amount to 32.8%. The fulfillment of this forecast would allow the Russian IT industry to earn 770 billion rubles. compared to 580 billion rubles. in 2008. In fact, instead of growing, the market showed a drop of 80 billion rubles. Thus, in percentage terms compared to 2008, the decline was about 13.8%.

In early 2010, Minister of Communications Igor Shchegolev called last year's forecast of the department a "technical mistake." He also stated that the fall in revenues of IT companies in 2009 compared to 2008 was 8%.

In early February, the Ministry of Economic Development gave a similar calculation of the results of the IT industry. According to the preliminary estimate of this department, the volume of the IT market amounted to 496.5 billion rubles, 87% of the 2008 level in comparable prices. The Ministry of Economic Development also gave a breakdown of this revenue by segments of the IT market. Most of the information technology market, according to the ministry, is the hardware segment - 51.4%. The software market accounts for 20%, the service market - 28.6%.

See also

• Communication (Russian market)
• Moscow ICT Market (IT and Communication Services)
• ICT (Global Market)

Notes