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Main article: Economy of Ukraine
2024
Growth of public debt by $20.7 billion
In 2024, Ukraine's public debt increased by $20.7 billion and reached 87.9% of GDP. Such data were released on February 6, 2025 by the Ministry of Finance of the country.
The published document says that as of December 31, 2024, the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine amounted to 6.98 trillion hryvnia, or $166.1 billion. At the same time, state and state-guaranteed external debt reached 5.05 trillion hryvnia (72.3% of the total), or $120.1 billion, while domestic debt reached 1.93 trillion hryvnia (27.7%), or $46 billion.
In 2024, the amount of state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in national currency by 1.46 trillion hryvnia ($20.7 billion), mainly due to an increase in long-term preferential financing from international partners. The largest source of state budget funds was revenues from the European Union. Over the year, Ukraine's debt on preferential loans from the EU increased by 600.5 billion hryvnia ($11.1 billion).
In the debt structure of Ukraine, approximately 58% falls on soft loans from international financial organizations and foreign governments, 28% - on securities of the domestic market, 12% - on external bonds. The remaining 2% are loans received from commercial banks.
It is also noted that in the total volume of state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine, the euro is 33%, US dollars - 27%, hryvnia - 25%. Another 11% falls on special borrowing rights (artificial reserve and payment means issued by the International Monetary Fund). The share of other currencies, in particular pounds sterling, Canadian dollars and the Japanese yen, is estimated at 4%.[1]
The World Bank came in second place among creditors of Ukraine
The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine at the end of January 2025 reported an increase in the country's debt to the World Bank group by 65% to $22.6 billion, which brought the organization to second place among the largest external creditors.
According to RBC, the increase in debt is due to the fact that financing from many international partners of Kyiv passes through the structures of the World Bank. The largest creditor remains the European Union, to which Ukraine owes $44 billion.
The third place in the list of creditors is occupied by the International Monetary Fund with an indicator of $18.9 billion, which increased its portfolio by 15%. The combined share of the three largest creditors is 52% of Ukraine's public debt.
According to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the country's total public debt reached 6.9 trillion hryvnia (about $167 billion), which is 92% of gross domestic product. At the same time, the gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2024 is estimated at $189 billion.
According to the publication, the International Monetary Fund predicts that by the end of 2025 Ukraine's public debt will exceed its gross domestic product, reaching 106.6%, and in 2026 it will increase to 107.6%. A slight decline to 102.6% is expected by 2027.
In the current situation, Ukraine has frozen payments on external debt since 2022, and some creditors have provided the country with credit holidays. After the moratorium expired on August 1, 2024 and there were no coupon payments, Fitch, the rating agency, declared a limited default.
The fund estimates that the excess of public debt over gross domestic product is not an exceptional situation in the world. In 2023, similar indicators were observed in the United States (112%), Japan (205%) and Greece (184%).[2]
Public debt - 7 trillion hryvnia ($165.1 billion)
By the end of 2024, the State Debt of Ukraine reached 7 trillion hryvnia ($165.1 billion), or 92% of GDP. Forbes Ukraine magazine cited such data in January 2025 after analyzing the results of the execution of the state budget in 2024.
According to the publication, in the structure of public debt, most (96%) falls on direct debt of the state, the remaining 4% - on debts guaranteed by the state. For comparison: in 2023, public debt amounted to 5.5 trillion hryvnia ($129.7 billion), or 84% of GDP.
The increase in public debt was due to significant external and domestic borrowing required to fund the budget. Another significant factor in the growth of public debt is the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate against the world's leading currencies.
According to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2024 the national debt of Ukraine should grow to 95.6% of the country's GDP, and in 2025 - to 106%. By January 24, 2025, the final IMF data has not yet been released. In 2021, the size of the public debt was 2.67 trillion hryvnia (about $63.7 billion), or 49% of GDP.
The authorities of Kyiv have repeatedly stated that Ukraine can only provide military spending on its own. All other budget items are funded by foreign aid.
Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements of GUU, in a conversation with Izvestia, noted that it is impossible to give Ukraine's exorbitant public debt. Kyiv lost the most productive regions in the south and southeast, which contributed the most to GDP, so the country's economy is in poor condition, he explained. Chirkov added that in the absence or insufficient amount of Western assistance, Kyiv will actually become bankrupt, so the only opportunity for Ukraine to exist as a state is to continue to ask for help from other countries and large organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank.[3]
Public debt - $159.74 billion
As of November 30, 2024, the total (direct and guaranteed) public debt of Ukraine reached $159.74 billion, which is a new record. This is 2.8%, or $4.37 billion, more than the figure recorded a month earlier - $155.37 billion. Such data at the end of December 2024 was published by the Ukrainian News Agency, referring to the country's Ministry of Finance.
It is said that the total amount of direct public debt as of November 30, 2024 amounted to $153.03 billion against $148.61 billion a month earlier. During this period, direct external debt increased from $105.9 billion to $109.57 billion. Direct domestic debt rose from $42.71 billion to $43.47 billion. The state-guaranteed debt amounted to $6.71 billion.
The government's foreign exchange accounts at the National Bank of Ukraine in November 2024 received a total of $6.678 billion. These funds were distributed as follows:
- $4.788 billion - from the World Bank;
- $1.350 billion - from the United States;
- $235.0 million - from Japan;
- $191.9 million - from the placement of foreign currency bonds (domestic state loan bonds);
- $99.9 million - from South Korea;
- $12.9 million - from other partners.
In Kyiv, as noted by TASS, they say that Ukraine can independently cover only military budget items, while everything else is funded by the help of the allies. The government submitted to the Rada a draft budget for 2025, which laid a deficit of 1.6 trillion hryvnia ($38.68 billion), and the national currency rate is planned to be lowered to 45 hryvnia for $1. According to estimates, the national debt of Ukraine by the end of 2025 may reach 101.8% of GDP. At the same time, it is planned to attract approximately $34.8 billion in external loans. The main share of government and guaranteed debt is made up of soft loans received from international financial organizations and foreign governments.[4]
Public debt in 2024 - 95% of GDP, in 2025 - 106%
The public debt of Ukraine in 2024 will amount to more than 95% of GDP, and by the end of 2025 it will exceed 100%. Such indicators are reflected in the report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published on October 18, 2024.
The IMF is considering two options for the development of events - basic and negative. Both scenarios are based on plans by Western allies to support Ukraine, including a $50 billion loan from the G7 from frozen Russian assets. Among the risks is the expected energy shortage in the winter, caused by "large-scale damage to power generation capacities." In general, as stated in the IMF document, Ukraine's financing needs remain high. Therefore, "decisive mobilization of domestic revenues is crucial" for the country. At the same time, it is emphasized that "the economy of Ukraine remains stable."
In the basic scenario, the national debt of Ukraine in 2024 is said to be at the level of 95.6% of GDP. In 2025, the indicator is expected to rise to 106.6%, in 2026 - to 107.6%. IMF analysts believe that after that the national debt of Ukraine will begin to decline, amounting to 102.6% of GDP in 2027, 89.1% in 2030 and 74.5% in 2033.
Under a negative scenario, in 2024 the national debt of Ukraine will be 97% of the WFP, in 2025 - 117.5% of GDP, in 2026 - 132.1%, in 2027 - 134.3%. Among the key factors contributing to the increase in debt are the ongoing hostilities, attacks on critical infrastructure (including the energy complex), as well as the long wait for financial assistance from international partners. In this scenario, the national debt of Ukraine will begin to decline in 2028, being at the level of 131.9%. In 2030, the value is predicted to fall to 124.7%, and in 2033 - to 111.9%.[5]
Public debt $143.69 billion
The state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine as of February 29, 2024 amounted to 5 trillion 490.10 billion hryvnia or $143.69 billion. Over the month, public debt decreased by more than $1 billion.
On March 29, 2024, during a meeting between the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko and the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary USA To Ukraine to Bridget Brink, a bilateral agreement was signed to postpone payments on public debt.
The conclusion of this agreement was provided for by the Memorandum of Understanding on the suspension of payments on public debt with a group of official creditors of Ukraine from the G7 countries and the Paris Club.
2023
Public debt - 82% of GDP
The national debt of Ukraine exceeded $132 billion
As of July 31, 2023, Ukraine's public debt reached UAH 4,860,59 billion (more than $132 billion), which is $4 billion more than a month earlier. Such data at the end of August 2023 led the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance.
According to the ministry, by the end of July 2023, Ukraine's external debt amounted to 3.319 trillion hryvnia ($90.77 billion), which corresponds to 68.29% of the total public debt, and domestic debt - 1.541 trillion hryvnia ($42.15 billion), or 31.71% of the total public debt. The amount of state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in July 2023 by UAH 146.23 billion. At the beginning of 2023, the national debt of Ukraine amounted to $111.38 billion. For six months, it grew by $17.43 billion, or 15.6%.
According to the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, the budget for 2023 provides for an increase in the maximum volume of public debt to $172.7 billion, that is, 102.3% of the projected level of gross domestic product (GDP) for next year. The state budget of Ukraine for 2023 also provides for a deficit of $38 billion.
Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the West to cover the Ukrainian budget deficit in full in 2023. In an interview with Ukrainian television last week, Zelensky expressed hope that Western countries would restructure most of the country's external debts.
At the end of July 2023, the head of the National Bank of the country, Andriy Pyshny, said that the budget deficit of Ukraine is 26% of GDP. According to him, Kyiv is trying to solve the problem through international financial assistance. He noted that in 2023 Ukraine expects the receipt of $42 billion, and in 2024 - at least $37 billion.
On August 24, 2023, the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko said that the situation with the country's budget for 2024 remains uncertain, and the Ukrainian conflict is moving into the "stage of a war for survival."[6]
Record $15.6 billion loan from IMF to continue hostilities
In March 2023, the IMF approved a record $15.6 billion loan to Ukraine to continue hostilities. It is reported by Reuters, citing sources.
2022
Canada increases lending to Ukraine to $1.5 billion
In August 2022, it was announced that Canada would issue a loan to Ukraine for almost $350 million for the purchase of fuel. After that, the total volume of loans provided by Ottawa to Ukraine will reach $1.5 billion. According to the Rada, the loan is designed for 10 years at 1.6%.
Public debt exceeded $100 billion
In May 2022, Ukraine's public debt for the first time in history exceeded $100 billion. In total, since the beginning of the special operation of Russia, the country has received about $11 billion from other states and international organizations.
The Ukrainian government is looking for additional sources of financing, as debts on military loans are growing
Military bond auctions helped Ukraine raise more than $1.5 billion by mid-April 2022. Ukraine is trying to expand the circle of investors as debts on military loans grow.
At this time, Ukraine is negotiating with the United States and the EU to create the so-called "Peace Bond" for retail investors to help finance hostilities and recovery.
Kyiv has held talks with the US SEC as well as the EU's executive body, the European Commission, a source familiar with the plans said. The commission proposed to become an intermediary between the national authorities of the countries of the bloc, which will control and approve the sale of new bonds.
US plans to guarantee loans to Ukraine for $1 billion
In February 2022, the United States decided to pay extra for its information campaign to incite war and stress for the inhabitants of Ukraine. They will offer Ukraine $1 billion in sovereign loan guarantees to calm the financial market in the context of waiting for war, White House defense adviser Sullivan said.
2021
Growth of external state and state-guaranteed debt to $57.1 billion
Public debt $92.63 billion
As of November 30, 2021, the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine amounted to UAH 2558.52 billion or $94.15 billion, and in October it was equal to $92.63 billion.
External state and guaranteed debt at the end of October amounted to UAH 1,496,27 billion (55.48% of the total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt) or $55.06 billion, and domestic debt - UAH 1,062,26 billion (41.52%) or $39.09 billion.
Since the beginning of 2021, the total national debt of Ukraine has grown by 4.31% in dollar terms and by 19.46% in hryvnia.
Reduction of public debt by $1.5 billion due to the return of "Yanukovych's money"
In April 2021, $1.5 billion was returned to the state budget of Ukraine, which "belonged" to the family and entourage of fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych. Of these, 87% were in cash.
"These are not some mythical securities, they are $1.3 billion in cash and about $200 million in securities," said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Yenin. According to him, the return of "Yanukovych's money" ensured a reduction in Ukraine's current public debt by one and a half billion dollars.
2018: Total public debt $76 billion
The total state (direct and guaranteed) debt of Ukraine in January 2018 decreased by 0.25%, or by $0.19 billion - to $76.11 billion. This was reported on the official website of the Ministry of Finance.
The total amount of direct public debt as of January 31 amounted to 1.832 trillion hryvnia (65.44 billion dollars) against 1.833 trillion hryvnia, or 65.33 billion dollars a month earlier[7]
At the same time, direct external debt for the month increased by $340 million to $38.83 billion, while direct domestic debt decreased by 8.02 billion hryvnia to 745.37 billion hryvnia (26.61 billion dollars).
The state-guaranteed debt as of January 31, 2018 u amounted to 298.90 billion hryvnia, or $10.67 billion.
2017: The ratio of the national debt to the country's GDP is 71%
2010: Credit VTB Government of Ukraine
In June 2010, VTB issued two billion to the Ukrainian government dollars - the money went to cover the country's budget deficit. It was assumed that Ukraine he would repay it in six months, but this did not happen: in the contract concluded with VTB, there was a clause according to which Ukraine could extend the loan three times, and each time for six months.
Thus, Ukraine had to return the funds no later than June 2012. Nevertheless, since the end of May 2012, reports began to appear in the local press, according to which officials decided to refinance part of the loan to the Russian state bank.
In May 2012, it became known that Ukraine agreed with the Russian state bank VTB to refinance a significant part of the loan for two billion dollars.
According to the Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, with half of the loan, the government will pay off with domestic state loan bonds, which will go to VTB's balance sheet. For the remaining billion, there is only unofficial information: the Ukrainian media reported that the country planned to pay another $500 million in real money, and another half a billion - to take another loan from VTB. Poroshenko, commenting on this scheme, only stated that it was not far from the truth.
In recent years, VTB has repeatedly noted that they are ready to expand cooperation with Ukraine: this applies not only to the sphere of public finance, but also to private business.
See also
Notes
- ↑ State and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine from 2022 became 1.5 times cheaper and increased urgency by 2 times
- ↑ Ukraine's debt to the IMF, EU and World Bank reached almost half of GDP
- ↑ Forbes: national debt of Ukraine reached 92 percent of GDP
- ↑ The national debt of Ukraine reached a record $159.74 billion
- ↑ Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement
- ↑ The national debt of Ukraine reached almost $133 billion
- ↑ , the State Debt of Ukraine decreased by $200 million.
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