US National Debt

Main article: US Budget

Life in debt

Structural budget deficits USA have been covered by output for decades. treasury bonds The United States plans to live by increasing debt always.

According to the long-term forecast of the US Congressional Budget Office for March 2023, it was expected that, subject to the invariability of the current legislation, in 2033 the public debt will amount to about $39.4 trillion. This is about 118% of US GDP.

For 2050, public debt was planned at about $95.0 trillion, or 95% of GDP at that time. On average, an annual increase in public debt was planned by about $2.3 trillion per year.

But by April 2024, including due to high lending rates, it became clear that by 2050 the US national debt should exceed 150% of GDP, and not 95% as previously expected.

According to the BofA forecast, US debt will reach $50 trillion as early as 2033. The increase will be approximately $5.2 billion per day, or $218 million per hour.

The size of the federal public debt

2024: Public debt rises to $36 trillion

By November 14, 2024, the US government debt reached a new all-time high of $36 trillion, an increase of $1 trillion in just 115 days.

The US government's debt burden is now seen as the biggest risk to financial stability, surpassing persistent inflation, according to a Fed survey.

Earlier in the three weeks of October 2024, the US national debt increased by $473 billion to $35.76 trillion.

In just the first 3 days of October 2024, the US national debt grew by $345 billion, reaching another record of $35.7 trillion.

Since June 2023, federal debt has grown by a huge $4 trillion, or 14%. Over the same period of time, US GDP, according to official data, grew by only $1.5 trillion, or ~ 6%. In other words, over the past 16 months, public debt has outstripped economic growth by 2.7 times. With the exception of the crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic, the US federal debt has never grown so quickly.

During the presidency of Joe Biden, the US national debt in absolute terms has grown by almost $7 trillion. (or + 28%) since he came to power. Overall, the rate of debt accumulation is similar to Bush's 1st term, which left debt 33% higher than before its arrival.

Big jumps happened at the end of Trump's terms and Bush's second term, related to the 2008 crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Also, the graph above does not indicate Obama's first term, when US debt rose by ~ 50% due to the recovery from the 2008 crisis.

As you can see, on average, the US president increases debt by 30% over 4 years, or 7.5% per year, and given that the US economy even in the best years shows an average nominal growth rate of about 5.0%, this design inevitably leads to an increase in the debt/GDP indicator every year.

By July 2024, US government debt exceeded $35 trillion.

2023

US national debt exceeded $34 trillion

By the end of 2023, the US government debt exceeded the $34 trillion mark, according to data on the US Treasury Department's fiscal information website.

• + 1 trillion in the last 3 months
• + 2 trillion in the last 6 months
• + 4 trillion in the last 2 years
• + 11 trillion over the past 4 years.

This is a huge jump in US debt by about 50% after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Public debt reached $33.59 trillion, of which real debt - $26 trillion

Officially, in September 2023, US government debt reached $33 trillion for the first time.

Over the past 5 years, US debt has increased by a total of $11.5 trillion.

As of October 18, the US national debt has already reached $33.59 trillion.

Many make a misinterpretation of data published in the media about the US government debt of $33.5 trillion.

The current market debt is "only" $26 trillion, where in bills - $5.4 trillion, in notes - $13.75 trillion, in bonds - $4.3 trillion, in TIPS - almost $2 trillion and about $0.6 trillion in FRN. Everything else is mainly Intragovernmental Holdings Debt between government agencies, which does not go into the external circuit. This is almost $7.1 trillion. It would be wrong to consider this type of debt in terms of debt sustainability.

Internal obligations between departments - $7.1 trillion - are wrong to consider as public debt

Intragovernmental Holdings Debt is not available for purchase by ordinary investors in the bond market. It's US debt to itself. The logic of the functioning of this type of debt is fundamentally different from classical treasuries, Spydell Finance wrote, - there is nothing in common neither in terms of the mechanism of issue, nor in the context of circulation and distribution of cash flows.

The issue takes place under social and internal budget obligations between various departments. The main participants in this segment:

• Federal Pension Fund (Social Security Old-Age Trust Fund)
• Department of Defense Military Retirement Fund
• Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund
• Social Security Trust Fund
• Medical Hospital Insurance/Medicare Supplemental Medical Trust Fund, Department of Defense Medicare
• Many others, while the above form about 85% in the structure of holders of domestic debt.

The increase in domestic debt largely depends on the availability of excess funds from federal funds and programs that, according to the charter, distribute liquidity in a priority direction in this type of debt.

Accordingly, the cash surplus of liquidity in public funds leads to an increase in domestic debt in the absence of a direct need to fulfill obligations under social programs.

Intragovernmental Holdings Debt (IGHD) is a liquidity balancing tool in the US budget system. The logic of functioning through cross-funding, when one state structure finances another. This has nothing to do with debt in the sense in which debt is meant.

The Ministry of Finance will transfer funds to the departments for programs Medicare or pension provision, and funds can immediately return the excess cache back to the Ministry of Finance, and the accounting record is the obligations of the US Treasury in IGHD and the assets of state funds in IGHD. At the same time, the integral liquidity balance is zero.

For example, in Russia, the placement of excess funds of the budget system takes place in bank deposits, and in the USA in IGHD. In many ways, this is a closed circuit, money is distributed within the US budget system and almost does not go beyond this circuit.

Except for the moment when money is distributed targeted to social programs, this type of operation still closes liquidity within the US economy, when people receive a pension, benefits or payments under medical programs.

IGHD affects intra-budget transfers by maintaining system connectivity and eliminating liquidity imbalances. These internal financial flows represent the dynamics between the various federal funds, programs, and the U.S. Treasury Department.

Therefore, speaking of US debt, it is correct to imply a convertible market debt of 26.2 trillion, and accounting for 33.8 trillion is a mistake.

The next borrowing limit of $31.5 trillion has been reached

In January 2023, the US government reached a borrowing limit of $31.5 trillion.

2022: $31tn

In October 2022, the US national debt for the first time exceeded $31 trillion and approached the permissible ceiling, which US President Joe Biden approved at the end of 2021.

As of November 30, 2022, payments on the US national debt reached $1 trillion a year. The forecast is also disappointing (red line)

The landscape of the modern architecture of the world financial system faces large-scale deconstruction, since all the inviolable principles that make it, the one that is now, are destroyed. The way the United States treated the Russian reserves was precedent, from now on there are only political principles. China will consistently get rid of the American public debt. The share of countries holding American Treasuries will steadily fall, this trend is inevitable in the current conditions. Peace, as it will not be before.

At a time when the entire public debt was bought by the Fed for non-residents, it was possible to spit, but by April 2022 the Fed was forced to leave the market, and moreover, it would discount government bonds in order to somehow curb record inflation.

Inversion in the US debt market is increasing, risk off continues against the background of a hawkish signal from the Fed: the regulator will reduce its giant balance sheet at the maximum monthly pace: $95 billion.

How often and how much the United States raised the ceiling of its public debt

By the beginning of February 2022, the US national debt for the first time exceeded $30 trillion.

US debt as of February 28, 2022

By January 14, 2022, the US national debt updated the record and rose over the month to 29.745 trillion from 29.2 trillion, and from 27.8 trillion dollars a year earlier.

2021: Helicopter money during the COVID-19 pandemic increases public debt

The most active growth in US public debt occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic - $4.7 trillion. This figure includes expenses due to the adoption of:

• Coronavirus Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES),
• Family Response coronavirus Act (FFCRA), Consolidated Appropriations Act and
• America's Salvation Plan Act of 2021.

These packages provided for a number of economic support measures, including direct payments to individuals, increased unemployment benefits, loans and grants for enterprises, as well as funding for medical institutions and the distribution of vaccines. These are precisely the very "helicopter money" that ensured the relative stability of the financial system at that time.

2020: $26tn

In May 2020, the debt of the US government reached $25 trillion. dollars

By June 11, 2020, the US national debt increased to $26 trillion.

2019: $22tn

For 2019, the US national debt exceeds $22 trillion.

In the entire history of the country, he grew under almost all presidents except Harding and Coolidge (they led several years before the Great Depression).

This graph clearly shows under which US president the national debt grew the most strongly.

2017: $20tn

According to the results of September 8, the US national debt crossed the historical mark of $20 trillion. Daily reports on the state of public debt are published on the website of the US Treasury.

The $318 billion increase was led by^[1], a law signed on September 8 that allows the US government to raise new borrowed funds within three months. In particular, $15 billion will be directed to victims of Hurricane Harvey.

To pass a law on raising the border of the public debt, US President Donald Trump entered into an agreement with Democrats in Congress. At the time of Trump's inauguration, the debt was $19.9 trillion^[2].

2016

As of September, $19.573 trillion (+ $1.4 trillion per year )

The US government closed the 2016 fiscal year, which ended September 30, 2016, with a debt level of $19.573 trillion. In just one year, the debt grew by more than $1.4 trillion.

This growth in debt corresponds to about 7.5% of the entire global economy. For comparison, the Marshall Plan, thanks to which the economy of Western Europe was completely restored after World War II, cost $12 billion in 1948, and this is only 4.3% from US GDP at that time.

Roosevelt's New Deal, which gave work to millions of people, cost 6.7% of US GDP, and more recently, in early 2008, $700 billion was spent on saving important banks, which is only 4.8% of GDP.

So what did the US economy get for that money?

If you answer in short, then this money simply disappeared. In theory, this amount could achieve world peace, practically end poverty, improve the environment on the planet, or at least modernize the US infrastructure, which is simply necessary.

The last fiscal year was a peculiar record, as the increase is the third largest in US history. At the same time, the previous two times when debt grew faster than in 2016 were recorded during the financial crisis.

But in the 2016 financial year there was no financial crisis, the government did not spend hundreds of billions to save banks. All things considered, 2016 was a normal fiscal year for the federal government. There were no major emergencies to drain taxpayer funds.

Nevertheless, they had to increase the debt so much, because this level of expenses has already been built into the system.

Even if the White House now sharply cuts spending and gets rid of entire departments of the federal government, it will still spend significantly more compared to the growth of the economy.

Social and health insurance is currently the biggest item of this huge expenditure, and it drains the budget more and more with each passing year. All other government spending combined just pales in comparison to social and health insurance costs.

So when you add up the military costs, the national security costs, the national parks costs, and President Obama's jet, that would just be part of the social and health insurance costs.

These programs consume the vast majority of U.S. tax revenue, forcing the government to borrow staggering amounts of funds to fund its operations. And this happens even in stable times, and if a new crisis hits, these amounts will grow even more.

But even more remarkable is that social and health insurance is not even properly funded. According to the latest research over the next few years, trust funds will be completely depleted, and some of them have already been exhausted back in the 2016 financial year. Thus, the government needs even more money than it is borrowing now.

So the only way out will be to declare a kind of default on these obligations. It will take about $42 trillion to completely close these programs, but one can hardly imagine that the White House will ever decide on such madness.

Another option is to tell the future beneficiaries of these programs that they will not receive the money. And the choice, in principle, there is no^[3].

As of January, $19 trillion

As of January 29, 2016, the debt amounted to $19.013 trillion, of which $13.7 trillion falls on public debt, which is held by individuals, foreign countries, American and foreign corporations. The remaining $5.3 trillion is domestic government borrowing.

Since Barack Obama took office USA in 2009, public debt has almost doubled: since January 2009, the figure has jumped by $8.4 trillion, increasing annually by more than a trillion.

As the US Congressional Budget Office predicts, by 2020 the public debt will increase to $22.6 trillion, and in ten years, by 2026, it will exceed $29.3 trillion.

As statistics demonstrate, the growth of public debt in recent years has noticeably accelerated. If in the period until the end of 2008 it averaged $300 billion/year, then from 2009 to the present, the speed exceeded $1.2 trillion/year^[4].

2015: $18tn but US national debt 3x official figures

In November 2015, the former head of the Government USA Accountability Office said that real US debt is approaching $65 trillion, almost 3 times the official figure of $18 trillion.

Dave Walker, who headed the US Accounts Chamber under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, said that if we add the country's unsecured obligations to the official data, the real significance of the national debt will be simply phenomenal.

"If you add about $18.5 trillion in unsecured civil and military pensions, health pensions, add underfunded spending on social obligations, Medicare, all various obligations, then the national debt will be about $65 trillion and it automatically grows due to lack of reforms," Walker said.

According to him, the growing debt complicates the government's ability to carry out domestic and foreign policy initiatives.

you don't keep the economy strong, that is, in a state where it generates new jobs and opportunities, you're not going to be strong internationally with foreign policy in mind, you're not going to be able to invest in national defense and national security, and ultimately you're not going to be able to support social security," he added.

Walker believes Americans "lose touch with reality" when it comes to spending. He urged Democrats and Republicans to delay "partisan politics" to come together and solve the problem.

"You can be a Democrat, you can be a Republican, you can be nonpartisan, you can be whatever you want, but it's your responsibility to benefit the country, not the party, and we have to address some of the big issues that we have," he said.

You can criticize such forecasts and calculations as much as you like, but the person who has long been in charge of all US government spending, who checked their compliance with fiscal goals, deserves attention.

A particularly big problem is the shortage of the pension system. In October 2015, Moody's reported that the 25 largest pension funds do not receive sufficient funding, the deficit is estimated at $2 trillion.

Goldman is also talking about this. Pension contributions are lower than necessary to stabilize or reduce unsecured liabilities. In addition to problems with contributions under pension plans, in some cases the states themselves violate the rules by not even funding their funds for minimum amounts. For example, over the past few years, New Jersey has contributed on average only about 40% of the expected amounts.

In the fall of 2015, new rules are introduced that should change the situation. But if state and local authorities are forced to allocate more resources for these obligations, then the impact on the state of local budgets will increase.

In total, spending on pension contributions by the government should grow by $100 billion per year, that is, by about 0.6% of GDP. That is, for some items it is necessary to reduce costs by a similar amount.

2012: State debt $15.8 trillion or 101.5% of GDP

As of June 30, 2012, US government debt exceeded 101.5% of GDP and amounted to $15,856,367 million, an increase of $75 billion per night.

Judging by the schedule, the growth rate of the American public debt in 2011-2012 did not slow down and is noticeably ahead of the GDP growth rate.

As of July 2012, the ceiling of the US national debt is $16.394 trillion, and the volume of borrowings is $15.835 trillion^[5]. If the budget deficit grows at the same rate as in January-June 2012 - an average of $150 billion per month - lawmakers will have to raise the public debt ceiling again before the presidential election on November 6, 2012.

The debate in Congress went until the deadline of August 2, 2012, after which the United States would be in a state of technical default if a compromise were not found. At the very last moment, it was still possible to agree: the opposition raised the borrowing ceiling by $2.5 trillion, and Obama, in turn, promised to reduce budget spending by more than $2 trillion over the next ten years.

Measures to reduce these costs come into force from the beginning of 2013. It is planned to reduce spending on more than a thousand federal budget programs, including military and social spending. These steps are already dangerous for the economy in themselves, but the threat was not only in them.

So it coincided that at the beginning of 2013 there is also the end of a whole series of programs providing for tax breaks. First of all, we are talking about the benefits provided by the George W. Bush administration in the 2000s and extended by Barack Obama in 2010. These indulgences apply to highly paid Americans - with annual incomes of 250 thousand dollars or more. At the same time, deductions under the healthcare reform program begin to work, which also significantly increases the tax burden.

2011: State Debt $15 trillion

In 2011, the "red" party (usually Republicans in various graphic materials are shown in red, and Democrats in blue) had the opportunity to fulfill the promise. By August, the size of the public debt was supposed to exceed the level of the next ceiling, which was expected - each post-crisis year, the deficit far exceeded a trillion dollars. Republicans have emphasized their reluctance to do so from the start without mutual major concessions from the administration.

Timetable for changing the "ceiling" of US government debt

As of November 17, 2011, the total US national debt amounted to $15 trillion 33 billion 607 million 225 thousand 920 dollars 32 cents, as of January 1, 2012 - 15.3 trillion. $ Объём долга превысил 100 % ВВП США[http://www.webcitation.org/65LmWoSnF Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product] (en). Bureau of Economic Analysis. Архивировано из [http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp первоисточника] 9 февраля 2012. Проверено 4 февраля 2011..Ошибка цитирования Неверный вызов: нет входных данных

The ratio of public debt to the country's GDP

2024: Public debt to GDP nears World War II level

2023

Public debt - 121% of GDP

Data for September 2023

Congress expects US public debt to rise to 181% by 2053

The combined US government debt will reach 181% of GDP in 2053, with federal debt in the form of securities held by the population in the next 10 years will amount to 115% of GDP, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office in June 2023.

2022: Cut to 96% of GDP

2021: Congress expects federal debt to rise from 102% to 202% of GDP by 2051

In March 2021, the US Congressional Budget Office announced that US federal debt would more than double the size of the economy in three decades, increasing the risk of a budget crisis. In the near term, the dangers allegedly seem insignificant.

At the same time, the report does not reflect the $1.9 trillion "helicopter money" dumping plan that is going through Congress at this time.

2020

Public debt 134% of GDP

Plan to increase public debt to 195% of GDP by 2050

In September 2020, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says public debt will reach 195% of GDP by 2050. The US at this time does not expect an immediate financial crisis, but action is needed to solve the long-term financial problems of the US.

US GDP growth in the next 30 years will be 1.6% against 1.9% projected in 2019.

"The US fiscal trajectory is unstable, but there is no definite tipping point when a financial crisis becomes likely or imminent," officials are sure.

US national debt exceeded GDP amid COVID-19 epidemic

In the second quarter of 2020, the US national debt exceeded GDP amid a sharp increase in budget spending and a decrease in tax revenues during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to calculations by the US Treasury Department, the country's public debt by the end of the second quarter of 2020 amounted to $20.5 trillion, compared to $17.7 trillion at the end of March, an increase of 16% in just three months. As a result, public debt reached 105.5% of GDP compared to 82% of GDP in the first quarter.

As of September 3, 2020, the country's public debt amounted to $26.7 trillion, according to data from the US Debt Clock service. This is more than 15 times the GDP, Russia according to the World Bank for 2018 ($1.658 trillion).

Change in the ratio of public debt to US GDP

The growth of public debt and the US budget deficit is taking place against the backdrop of the White House's decision to allocate $2.2 trillion to support enterprises and citizens. Part of the money is directed to direct payments to citizens: people with an income of less than $75 thousand will receive a check for $1.2 thousand, families with children will receive $500 for each child. Part of the funds will be directed to those who have lost their jobs. In addition, the package provides for measures to support enterprises and sectors of the economy.

According to forecasts of the US Congressional Budget Office, the US national debt in 2020 will grow sharply - to 98% of GDP against 79% at the end of 2019 and 35% in 2007.

The budget deficit in the United States by the beginning of September 2020 is the highest since 1945, congressional experts clarify. In 2021, a budget deficit of 8.6% is predicted. It is assumed that until 2027 the deficit will gradually subside, but then again grow to 5.3% by 2030.

Meanwhile, US federal budget revenues in the period from April to July decreased by 10% compared to the same period of the previous year due to a significant decrease in economic activity in the country due to quarantine measures, as well as massive reductions.^[6]

Federal debt growth forecast to 100% of GDP

According to the forecast at the beginning of May 2020, the ratio of public debt to GDP in the United States will be 100% in 2020 - the highest figure since World War II.

2017: State debt 105% of GDP

The ratio of public debt to the country's GDP, 2017

2016:106% of the country's GDP

At the end of 2016, the US national debt was 106% of the country's GDP - this is the third indicator among the G20 countries. The first place is occupied by Japan, whose public debt is $9.1 trillion, but two and a half times the country's GDP.

The national debt of Russia, according to the Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2017 will reach 12.7 trillion rubles, which will amount to 13.8% of the country's GDP^[7]

2010: State debt - 93% of GDP

In 2010, the national debt, according to the CIA handbook, ranked 36th in the world in terms of GDP ^[8] 'archivedate ^[9]

1985: State debt began to grow faster than the economy

Since the 1980s, public debt has grown much faster than the economy. The gap between the dynamics of GDP growth and the growth of public debt increased in the 2000s.

1982: National Debt 35% of GDP

The outstripping dynamics of economic growth USA over the growth of public debt (from the mid-1940s to the early 1980s) made it possible to reduce the ratio of public debt GDP to about 33-36%.

1946: Public debt 121% of GDP

Public debt in relation to the country's GDP, reached a maximum in 1946. What was the result of massive military spending during the Second World War. Then this indicator amounted to 121.2% of GDP.

Public debt per capita

At the end of 2018

Government bonds: US creditors

Main article: US government bonds (Treasurys)

Who and how allows the United States to live on debt for decades.

US payments on public debt

2024: Annual payments on public debt $1.2 trillion or $3 billion a day - a record in the history of the country

Net interest expenses of the US consolidated budget reached a record $1.2 trillion for 2Q 2024 in annual terms.

Before the start of the tightening cycle of the monetary policy in 1Q 2022, net interest expenses were almost half as much - 617 billion.

Net interest expense refers to gross interest payments minus total asset revenues (interest payments, leases, royalties, and dividends) for the United States consolidated budget combining the federal government, states, and local governments.

Relative to GDP, net interest spending rose to 4.13% - a maximum of 4q in 1997, and the greatest burden on the budget was 4.8% in 1992.

The level of net interest expenditures to GDP above 4.4% was maintained for almost 4 years until 1996, and the level of 4.1% and higher was between 3Q 1984 and 4Q 1997 (more than 14 years).

From 2000 to 2007, the average net interest expense was 3% due to the accumulated effect of normalizing fiscal policy (reducing the deficit) with intensive economic growth.

From 2010 to 2019, the average load was almost 2.8% of GDP and 2.95% in 2017-2019 (comparable to 2000-2007) due to the zero rate policy and the completion of the procedure for refinancing medium and long-term debt, which lasted more than 7 years.

In 2020-2021, net interest expenses decreased to 2.7% due to the failure of treasury yields amid a liquidity surplus and a large-scale QE with the return of dividends from the Fed in the amount of up to $140-150 billion per year.

The relatively comfortable level of interest burden for the US Treasury is about 3%, now 1.1 pp higher, while the level of 4.1% or more has been for 14 years.

The volume of public debt, the structure of debt, the annual need for borrowing by 2 trillion or more, the trajectory of interest rates does not allow normalizing the interest burden for a long period of time, even if the Fed cuts rates to almost zero in 2025.

Now net interest expense is 15.1% of consolidated budget revenues and 12.2% of expenses vs 11.5 and 9.7%, respectively, in 2019.

Daily interest payments on the federal debt reached $3 billion.

Consolidated expenditures of the US budget reached $9.7 trillion, net interest expenditures form 12.4% of total expenditures - this is the maximum since 3Q 1998, although the record of 14-14.1% in 1991-1995 is still far away.

2023

The cost of servicing debt in the United States is rapidly increasing

In the first nine months of the fiscal year, the cost of servicing the US public debt increased by 25%, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a significant increase in the budget deficit. Rising interest rates mean more debt servicing costs.

Forecast of the share of US budget expenditures for servicing the public debt to 2033

As of June 2023, 4 trillion bills are in circulation, the cost of servicing which is exactly 5% (almost the entire debt was refinanced at high rates + a premium for the idiocy of the White House under the procedure for raising the public debt limit, when some issues in April-May were placed at rates close to 6%).

Notes (bonds from a year to 10 years) in circulation by $13.7 trillion, the weighted average rate is 1.93%, compared with 1.42% in January 2022. From March 2022, when the Fed began to raise the rate for refinancing and new placements, it took $4 trillion, and from September 2022, when rates rose significantly - 2.2 trillion.

So far, the situation is not out of control and the weighted average rates are at the level of 2013-2018, but the further - the more securities will go to refinancing and the higher the penetration of current high rates.

Bonds (bonds over 10 years) are in circulation by 4.1 trillion in total, and weighted average rates are at a level slightly above 3%. There is no particular reaction here, because since March 2022, 600 billion bonds have been spent on refinancing and new placements, and September 2022 - 330 billion.

For all public debt, weighted average rates went at 2.7% (the maximum since May 2009) compared to 1.45%. From 2013 to 2018, there was a comfortable weighted average rate of about 2% and increased to 2.5% by 2019.

Due to the super-soft monetary policy, the US Treasury managed to keep the low cost of debt servicing with the rapid growth of the debt itself. For example, public public debt grew 4.5 times from 5 to 22.5 trillion from 2007 to 2021, and the cost of servicing debt increased only 1.3 times from 255 to 330 billion.

Now everything has changed. The record rate growth rate of the Fed led to a sharp increase in the cost of service in the market part of the public debt - over 660 billion in May 2023, which is twice as much as in Q4 2021!

Ahead is a large-scale refinancing of existing debt and new placements by 1.5-2 trillion, which will further accelerate the cost of debt servicing, which by Q4 2023 could surpass defense spending, Spydell Finance wrote.

Interest expense of $929 billion per year or 17% of the US budget - maximum since 2000

By April 2023, interest expenses to US budget revenues are approaching 17% - the most since 2000.

The government's spending USA on paying interest on the federal debt for 2.5 years increased by 80% and as of April 2023 amounts to $929 billion a year. At the same time, the refinancing rate continues to grow.

The cost of servicing the US public debt set a new record

State debts

2023: California defaults on $18.6 billion in debt to federal government

California defaulted in May 2023 and the state refused to pay $18.6 billion in debt to the federal government.

2017

In April 2017, it HowMuch.net clear from the infographic of the information site that the accumulation of debt in various US states is comparable to the snowball effect.

The five states in the center of the snowball are the states with the highest per capita debt levels: Massachusetts ($11 thousand), Connecticut ($9,200), Rhode Island ($8,900), Alaska ($8,200) and New Jersey ($7,400).

At the other end of the spectrum are five states with the lowest level of public debt per capita: Tennessee ($900), Nebraska ($1,000), Nevada ($1,200), Georgia ($1,300) and Arkansas ($1,500).

Of course, it is reasonable to expect large differences in the level of debt per capita between the states, but not with such a gap as can be seen on this graph. And what explains such strong differences?

At this time, Massachusetts is the state with the highest level of debt per capita and is in second place in terms of public debt as a percentage of GDP (14%). S&P analysts recently lowered the forecast for state government bonds from "stable" to "negative."

Forbes notes that unsecured liabilities are the biggest fiscal challenge facing state governments, and Massachusetts is no exception. Unsecured liabilities amount to $94.45 billion.

Such a significant difference in economic indicators between the states will ultimately be in favor of further disintegration of the country.

The fact is that the United States is increasingly divided into two groups of states: economically successful states and depressed states. Congressmen from these groups are increasingly demanding completely different initiatives from the state in the Senate and House of Representatives. ^[10].

City defaults

World Bank expert Eric Schweizern in an interview with Expert Online (August 2013):

"In the United States, many social obligations in recent years have been transferred from the federal to the state level, and the states themselves, in turn, willingly gave them to municipalities. Suffice it to say that of the 22 social programs initiated since 2008 under the Anti-Crisis Pact, only 3 remained with the federal center and 7 with state budgets. Problematic assets in the public administration system are also transferred to districts and urban settlements. This is done in order to hide the huge deficit of the country's consolidated budget, which, if considered in combination, already has definitely default parameters. It is no longer possible to cover deficits with traditional transfers from Washington because of the sequestration law. Over the next 3 years, we expect an avalanche-like process of bankruptcies of US cities, which is able to put the whole country on the verge of sovereign default^[11]

California

Mammoth Lakes

On July 3, 2013, Mammoth Lakes filed for bankruptcy due to his inability to pay $43 million in damages filed by the city planner against the city.

San Bernardino

San Bernardino filed for bankruptcy (earlier August 2013), becoming the third largest bankrupt American city. Instead of large cuts for the police and fire departments, the city chose to file documents declaring itself bankrupt. The city's lawyer, James Penman, says that the documents that were presented to the mayor and the city council, 13 out of 16 years old, were falsified, and thus hid the true expenses of the city, ultimately only exacerbating its financial problems.

Santa Ana

The credit rating of the city according to Moody's is only one higher than the status of insolvent. Bankruptcy forecast: 2014.

Long Beach

Long Beach has renegotiated contracts with police and fire unions regarding cuts to pension spending in an attempt to reduce overall spending and savings for the city's 18.5 million budget. dollars Projected bankruptcy: 2014

Costa-Meza

To save money, the city of Costa Mesa sold police helicopters and reduced the wage bill. Bankruptcy is expected in December 2013.

San Diego

Pension problems have plagued the city for many years, and most of the proposed solutions have a negative effect on the new labor force, doing little to reduce ever-increasing debts. Default in 2014.

Angeles

The city's budget deficit is $238 million, and it also has huge unsecured pension obligations and an annual budget of almost $7 billion. Expected default (if not saved by the federal center): February 2014.

New York State

Rockland County

The district cut 412 jobs in mid-2012, after Moody's gave it a negative outlook because of its 18 million budget deficit. In dollars 2013, the authorities laid off another 514 employees. All American analysts agree that the city has come close to default, which will inevitably come within 1-1.5 years.

Pennsylvania

Scranton

By August 2013, Scranton is missing approximately $16.8 million. To help keep costs down, the city has cut about 400 public jobs. "The city has no money," says City Councilman Robert McGoff. "We live like the last one every day." Bankruptcy forecast: Q1 of 2014.

Rhode Island

Providence

At the end of May 2013, Central Falls (a city in Providence County), appointed for bankruptcy, said, "I don't know how else they can get out of this, except by declaring bankruptcy." Default forecast: Fall 2013.

Michigan

Michigan State gubenator Rick Snyder said in January 2013 that according to his calculations, his state has 235 cities and towns that are functional bankrupt. One such city in Michigan is the city of Flint. Flint was once called the "Engine City of America" because it housed the Buicks assembly plant, a large spark plug company, and Fisher Body. None of these units are functioning anymore. "Engine City" became "Murder City." In 2012, 66 of these crimes were registered in a city of 102 thousand people. The murder rate here is even worse than in Baghdad.

Risk of pension defaults

Main article: Pensions in the United States

Notes