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2025: Growth forecast lowered from 1.1 to 0.3%
In January 2025, the German government lowered its forecast for economic growth for 2025 to 0.3% from 1.1% before the snap elections.
Economy Secretary Robert Habeck, who is running as the Green party's main candidate in next month's snap election, blamed the weakness on "global crises of recent years," which he said had "hit our industrial and export-oriented economy particularly hard."
While inflation caused by the energy crisis has fallen and households have more money to spend, Germany's "fundamental structural problems," such as a shortage of skilled workers, excessive bureaucracy and a lack of investment, are putting a lot of pressure on growth.
2024
GDP contraction of 0.2% at the end of the year
In 2024 GDP Germany , it decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous year. This is stated in the data of the Federal Statistical Agency of Germany Destatis, published on January 15, 2025.
Germany's GDP has been declining for the second year in a row: in 2023, a drop of 0.3% was recorded. For comparison: in 2021, before the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, an increase of 3.7% was noted, while in 2022 an increase of 1.4% was shown. Destatis chief Ruth Brand said more effective economic development in 2024 was hampered by "economic and structural challenges." The deterioration of indicators is associated, among other things, with the rejection of Russian gas.
 | The negative factors include growing competition in important sales markets, high energy costs, still high interest rates, as well as uncertain economic prospects, "Brand emphasized. |  |
Consumer spending in Germany increased 0.3% in 2024. In the field of medical care, an increase of 2.8% was recorded. At the same time, spending on clothing and shoes decreased by 2.8%, on restaurants, bars and hotels - by 4.4%. Government spending in Germany increased by 2.6% amid higher welfare payments.
| | In 2024, there were only weak positive signals from personal consumption spending. In real terms, they grew by 0.3%, - says the material Destatis. | |
The difficult economic situation in 2024 also affected foreign trade. Exports of goods and services decreased by 0.8%. The main reason was the fall in exports of electrical equipment, machines and vehicles. However, price-adjusted imports rose slightly - up 0.2% - from 2023, driven primarily by an increase in service imports.[1]
Germany's economy stagnates within five years
Since Q4 2019 US economy , it has grown by 11% in real terms, the Eurozone - by 5%, while GDP Germany it has remained at the same level over the past five years.
The pillars of Germany's post-war economic miracle - free world trade, the automotive industry and NATO - are shaking at the same time, Schularik, president of the Kiel Institute of World Economy, said in November 2024, adding that this is hitting an economy plagued by an aging workforce, excessive regulation and a lag in digitalization.
High energy prices due to the conflict with Russia and falling exports increase the decline, which threatens to become irreversible.
The economy is not growing, as Germany has become uncompetitive after severing ties with Russia
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on February 5, 2024 that his country is becoming poorer due to the inability to provide economic growth.
The leader of the free Democrats laments that "we are no longer competitive. We're getting poorer because we don't have growth. We're lagging behind. "
Spending must be realised through prosperity, says minister
Forecast growth of only 0.1% at the end of the year
Five leading economic research institutes Germany in March 2023 lowered their forecasts for the growth of the country's economy, as exports fall and domestic demand does not gain momentum. Five institutions predict that GDP Germany's growth in 2023 will be 0.1%, compared with 1.3% expected six months ago.
On February 14, 2024, Economy Minister Robert Habeck announced that Germany will revise its forecast for economic growth in 2024 downward to 0.2% from a forecast of 1.3% published in October 2023.
On January 24, 2024, the German Ifo Institute again lowered its forecast for German economic growth for 2024, citing uncertainty caused by changes in the federal budget caused by the court decision.
The weakening economy may grow only 0.7% instead of the 0.9% predicted earlier in mid-December 2023. In September, it expected growth of 1.4%.
2023
Industry's share of GDP
Fifth in the world in GDP by PPP
GDP decline of 0.22% for the year and minus 0.12% for two years
in GDP Germany 2023, it decreased by 0.22% over the full 12 months - this is the first such decline since the pandemic. COVID-19
Germany is in recession with a fall in GDP of 0.22% for the year and minus 0.12% for two years, and with respect to 4Q 2019, the accumulated growth of only 0.34%.
Germany allegedly continues to avoid a recession caused by the country's refusal to supply energy resources from Russia. GDP fell 0.3% in the IV quarter, but the fall in the III quarter was revised by politicians towards stagnation.
77% GDP growth over 20 years
GDP growth (at current prices) for the period 2003-2023:
China: 966%
India: 503%
Indonesia: 455%
Saudi Arabia: 395%
Russia: 303%
Brazil: 281%
Turkey: 265%
Canada: 136%
US: 135%
Germany: 77%
France: 65%
Italy: 38%
Japan: -6%
Q3 GDP decline of 0.1%
In Q3, 2023 GDP Germany contracted by 0.1% as households were forced to lower their spending amid failed attempts to pressure Russia Western countries.
Europe's largest economy has entered what the Bundesbank believes could be a recession. Germany is the only major country where the economy is expected to shrink this year, the IMF predicts.
Consumer spending declined 0.3% from the previous quarter, while government spending rose.
High energy prices continue to put severe pressure on Germany's manufacturing base. Large industrial companies have begun to cut costs.
Forecasts of a fall of 0.2-0.3% for the year
Weak recovery in GDP to pre-COVID-19 levels compared to competing countries
GDP slump for two straight months
2022
Industry's share of GDP is less than 22.5%
Sixth in the world in terms of GDP in PPP after Russia
In August 2023, the World Bank updated its PPP GDP estimates for the world at the end of 2022.
GDP estimate - $4 trillion
GDP contraction of 0.4% in Q4
GDP Germany decreased by 0.4% in the IV quarter, which is twice as much as previously reported.
0.4% growth in Q3
The German economy in the third quarter of 2022 was stronger than expected due to high consumer spending: GDP grew by 0.4%, initially it was expected to grow by 0.3%.
Forecast of the size of annual GDP - $4.3 trillion
Waiting for a recession in the 1st quarter
In 2022, the continent's largest economy was expected to catch up in 2021, starting in spring there will be "significant momentum," the Bundesbank predicted growth of 4.2% in 2022, but later in January the estimate was reduced, and in February they started talking about a recession at the end of the 1st quarter.
2021
Average annual GDP growth over 40 years - 1.6%
GDP size - $4.23 trillion
Agriculture's share of GDP - 0.9%
GDP growth of 2.1%
Germany's economic recovery is lagging behind the rest of Europe due to supply problems and inflation.
GDP grew by 2.7% in 2021.
That's in line with expectations but France Italy Spain well behind, and, which analysts estimate will report growth of 4.5% or more later this month.
UBS, ING claim that GDP stagnated on the COVID-19 strain of omicron in the fourth quarter.
2020
Over 20 years, Germany's GDP has grown by 77%
GDP decline forecast by 5% due to coronavirus
2019: Balancing on the brink of recession
2018
4.65% of global GDP, 4th in the world
GDP per capita more than $45 thousand
See also
Notes
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