GDP of Ukraine

The main articles are:

• Economy of Ukraine
• GDP - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2023

GDP growth of 5.3%. Real GDP is well below 2004 levels

Ukraine's economy grew 5.3% in 2023 as the country regained control of the Black Sea export corridor and harvested a good harvest.

Military spending of Ukraine exceeded 60% of GDP

In 2023 Ukraine , she spent more than $49 billion on defense, which exceeds 60%. GDP Such data on January 22, 2024 was published Ministry of Finance by the country on its page on the social network (Facebook owned by a company Meta that is recognized as an extremist organization; activities in the territory of the Russian Federation are prohibited). More. here

GDP growth by 20% in Q2 and by 9% in Q3

GDP in the third quarter of 2023 jumped 9% from a year earlier after almost 20%-year growth in the second quarter, refuting all expectations.

The World Bank sharply worsened the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth from 3.3% to 0.5%

In April 2023, the World Bank lowered its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2023 to 0.5% from 3.3%.

2022

Reduction of more than 30% due to conflict with Russia

In 2022 GDP Ukraine , it decreased by more than 30% due to the military conflict with. Russia

In April 2023, it was announced that Ukraine's GDP fell by 29.1% in 2022.

15.1% decline in GDP for the first quarter of 2022

The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine for the first quarter of 2022 fell by 15.1% compared to the same period in 2021, and relative to the last three months of 2021, the rate of economic decline reached 19.3%. This is evidenced by the data of the State Statistics Service of the country (Gosstat).

The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine estimated the decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2022 at 16%. This happened against the background of the Russian military operation launched in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The World Bank predicts a decrease in Ukraine's GDP by the end of 2022 by 45.1%, in 2023 - an increase of 2.1%.

According to the First Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Denis Kudin, in the first quarter of 2022, aviation, sea transportation, and the service sector suffered the most in the country.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine in March 2022 exported 5.97 million tons of goods worth $2.7 billion, which is more than half the quantitative and value indicators for February 2022. Imports fell three times - to 1.6 million tons by $1.8 billion.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmigal said that in the month since the beginning of the military conflict, the country has lost more than 35% of GDP. According to him, in the future everything will depend on how the Ukrainian economy and business recover. This also depends on the export industries, where Ukraine is being rebuilt for sea supplies to rail through Eastern Europe.

Mastercard General Director in Ukraine and Moldova Inga Andreeva at the end of May 2022 said that in 75 days of the Russian special operation, half of Ukrainian small and medium-sized businesses completely stopped their activities, as a result of which the damage to the country's economy amounted to $85 billion, which is about 20% of Ukraine's GDP.^[1]

2021

Agriculture's share of GDP - 10.6%

Ukraine is the country with the least economic growth after the collapse of the USSR

GDP growth of 3%

Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 3% and returned to the level of 2019, when there was no COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. This is evidenced by the data of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), published on January 20, 2022.

The regulator noted that the growth of the Ukrainian gross domestic product was below expectations (the NBU predicted 3.1%), and this is due to a number of reasons:

• the rapid rise in price of energy carriers and their shortage;
• the impact of 2020 low yields;
• Slow recovery of the service sector
• limited capacities of individual production sectors;
• more significant losses from the pandemic;
• rapid fiscal consolidation.

First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko said that Ukraine ended 2021 with the highest dollar GDP in history - about $195 billion. According to the World Bank, Ukraine's dollar GDP reached the highest values ​ ​ in 2008 - $179.8 billion and in 2013 - $183.3 billion.

As the publication Focus.ua clarifies, dollar GDP and its dynamics are purely arithmetic indicators and have nothing to do with the real state of affairs in the economy. It is achieved by accelerating inflation (both consumer + 11% and industrial + 57%) and actually fixing the exchange rate at last year's level of UAH 27/$ (due to a favorable foreign economic situation). In other words, dollar GDP does not take into account accelerated price growth and inflationary inflation in the size of nominal GDP, the publication says.

At the end of December 2021, the leader of the Batkivshchyna party, Yulia Tymoshenko, said that Ukraine was the last in Europe for the first time in terms of gross domestic product per capita. The state budget for 2022 includes the growth of Ukraine's GDP by 3.8%.^[2]

Shadow economy accounts for 31% of Ukraine's GDP

The shadow economy in the first half of 2021 accounted for 31% of Ukraine's GDP, which is 1 percentage point more than a year earlier. This was announced at the end of November 2021 in the Ministry of Economy of the country.

The department noted that the invariability of the level of the shadow economy in January-June 2021 is a consequence, first of all, of the adaptation of enterprises to activities in difficult conditions of quarantine restrictions against the background of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as their development under such conditions of new schemes for leaving the shadows.

According to the report, the trend towards an increase in the tenization of the economy is formed, first of all, in the conditions of an unfavorable investment and business climate in the country. At the same time, positive expectations regarding business conditions, as well as the results of government reforms, stimulate the population and companies to expand their activities in the legal sector.

According to the government, the processes of removing Ukraine from the shadow of the economy are constrained by such factors as:

• low protection of property rights;
• insufficient protection of intellectual property;
• low level of liquidity of the stock market, protection of investors' rights along with insufficient ability of the regulator to counteract market abuses;
• imperfection of the country's judicial system;
• high levels of corruption in the country;
• the presence of territories not controlled by the government.

In September 2021, Oleksiy Lyubchenko, who served as Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, said that the country's government intends to reduce the level of the shadow economy to 25% of GDP.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, in January-June 2021, almost all aggregated types of economic activities (with the exception of Financial and Insurance Activities and Construction) showed a tendency to reduce the level of the shadow economy.^[3]

2020: 4.4% decline in GDP - NBU

Ukraine's GDP in 2020 decreased by 4.4%, calculated in the National Bank of the country. The fall in the economy was not as strong as the regulator expected - he predicted a decline of 6%.

The decline in Ukrainian GDP is associated with the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, due to which strict quarantine was introduced in the country. According to the head of the National Bank Kirill Shevchenko, the economy began to recover quickly enough in the second half of 2020. Thus, in the third quarter, the rate of decline in GDP slowed down to -3.5% from -11.4% in the second quarter, and in October-December this trend remained. The strengthening of quarantine in November had a slight impact on business activity, Shevchenko said.

The rapid recovery of the Ukrainian economy in the NBU was associated primarily with the growth of domestic consumption. Thus, retail trade in the 4th quarter continued to grow rapidly. The increase in current budget expenditures for infrastructure, primarily for road repairs, as well as healthcare, has improved the dynamics of GDP, the National Bank said.

According to economists, in 2020 the national debt of Ukraine grew by 25% - from UAH 2 trillion to UAH 2.5 trillion. Thus, for each Ukrainian, including the elderly and babies, there were 75 thousand UAH of debt.

In the face of an acute shortage of budget funds, the Ukrainian government began to lend them at maximum interest rates. A significant part of the shortage is blocked by the increase in bonds of the domestic state currency loan. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said that in December 2020, the total volume of placement of government debt securities could reach UAH 50-60 billion.

The National Bank notes that although prices and external demand for the main goods of Ukrainian exports remained quite high, the rise in energy prices leads to a deterioration in trade conditions. The economic recovery will be accompanied by a gradual increase in investment imports.^[4]

2019: GDP growth for 14 consecutive quarters

2018: 3.3% increase. Per person $9,283

In 2018, the country's GDP (PPP) in per capita terms amounted to only $9,283.

2016: $8.2K per person

2015:14% collapse in Q2

Ukraine's GDP for the ІI quarter of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014 fell by 14.7%, and compared to the first quarter of 2015, taking into account the seasonal factor, by 0.9%, the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine said. The fall of the country's economy in half a year exceeds 16%.

The industrial production of Ukraine in January-June 2015 fell by 20.5% compared to the corresponding period in 2014.

Agricultural production decreased less - by 9.3%. The volume of construction collapsed by 28.3%, cargo transportation fell by 21%.

The real disposable income of the population, calculated taking into account the price factor, decreased by 23.5% in January-July compared to the corresponding period of 2014.

2014: Fitch predicts 6.5% decline in GDP

According to Fitch forecasts (August 2014), Ukraine's real GDP will decrease by at least 6.5% in 2014 and threatens zero growth in 2015 and 2016.

In April 2013, the Government of Ukraine expected in 2014 an increase in GDP at the level of 3% while accelerating inflation to 8.3%. At the same time, the growth of nominal GDP will be extremely low - 7.5%, which will not even allow indexing the increase in social spending. Experts estimate such forecasts mean the government is preparing for another year of fiscal austerity.

With such low GDP growth rates, the Ukrainian economy will not be able to reach the pre-crisis level even at the end of 2014.

According to a Kommersant source familiar with the negotiations with the IMF, such conservative forecasts were developed by the government under the influence of the monetary fund.

2013: Rapid lag behind Russia in GDP per capita

In recent years of the Soviet Union, the economic situation of Russia and Ukraine did not differ much. Later, the Ukrainian economy consistently showed very poor results, mainly due to the ubiquitous corruption. In 1989, according to the then Soviet statistics, Ukraine's GDP per capita was 10% higher than in Russia. By 2014, Russian GDP per capita at current prices and on the basis of exchange rates is about three times higher.

2012: PPP GDP per capita remains well below 1990

2011: Over 8 years, Ukraine has dropped from 31st to 38th in the world in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity

For the most visual comparison, it is worth using not estimates of international organizations like the World Bank or the IMF, and not domestic Rosstat - but estimates of the US CIA (CIA data [1] The World Factbook ).

The main comparative indicator of countries is GDP at purchasing power parity.

The comparison base in this case is GDP, not GNP (gross national product), as this allows you to clear the comparison of the impact of the export-import balance. In the Russian case, it is extremely positive - due to the export of energy resources, and will significantly affect the importance and position of the country. But, since most of the revenue received from exports is placed in a "cube" (foreign treasury bonds, currency, precious metals), it is better to exclude it - within the country it does not produce any serious economic effect, but plays the role of a stabilizer^[5].

This is followed by a comparison of GDP, not GNP, as this clears the comparison from the influence of "gift oil" as much as possible. In this case, countries with negative trade balances, such as Turkey, the USA, Latvia or Greece, will benefit, and countries such as Russia, Norway, Germany or China are losing, well, okay. It should also be mentioned that the CIA comparison is the most stringent to the situation of the Russian Federation in the world (this can be seen here).

Important:

a) this comparison is made with the absolute size of the economies of the countries of the world, and not with relative (per capita),

b) GDP is calculated at purchasing power parity, and not by simple mathematical recalculation of current exchange rates of countries of the world. This is done to improve the objectivity of the assessment. Explanations are given on the CIA website, and there are detailed explanations on the Web why a simple recalculation of the course has long been virtually not used for comparison, as not correct enough.

The period was taken from 2003 to 2011 - eight years, during which quite significant world events occurred. First of all, this is the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, as well as a chain of "color revolutions" that greatly influenced the post-Soviet space and the development of the former republics of the USSR.

There are two groups of columns in the table - for 2003 and for 2011, and in each group of 4 columns.

Column 1 - shows the country's place in the world for this year. The World (world) and European Union (EU) meters, which do not belong to specific countries, were removed from the original CIA table, but were numbered in the general table. Only the countries of the world themselves remained.

Column 2 - Country. Countries are only those that are significant for research from the standpoint of Russia:

• the first twenty countries of the world - the whole
• all republics of the former USSR - entirely
• some countries that are interesting for general comparison (Poland, Israel, Turkey, Cuba, etc.)

Column 3 - the value of VNP according to the item taken from the corresponding annual section of the CIA website. The World Factbook. All data is easily verifiable.

Column 4 - The weight of the economy of a particular country relative to Russia, in percent. Russia is accepted as 100%, and the GDP of other countries is recalculated as% of its GDP - both for 2003 and for 2011. From this column you can clearly see whether the size of the economy of a particular country has grown relative to Russia, or has decreased.

You can look at the indicator and vice versa - is Russia catching up with a specific country, or lagging behind it, for the 8th anniversary under consideration? If the percentage in the graph has decreased, it catches up, if it has increased, it lags behind. In addition, the relative weight of countries compared to Russia can also be clearly assessed immediately. For example, Poland in 2011 is a third of the Russian economy (32.2%).

Column 5 (on the left of the column groups) - shows in color who rolls where and in which direction. Beliy - remained in place in the world table of ranks, orange - rolls down, green - goes up. Rise and fall record holders are highlighted in a more intense color.

Comparison of the countries of the world by GDP (PPP) with an indication of the size of the economy relative to Russia

Some conclusions from the table.

When analyzing the state of affairs in the post-Soviet space, column No. 5 is added in the table - it shows the amount of economic growth over the same 8 years.

The most important conclusion from the table is the terrifying drop in the role and importance of Ukraine over the past 8 years. She moved to the world table on GDP ranks by 8 places down (from 31st to 38th), relative to Russia too - she was more than 1/5 of her neighbor, and now she barely exceeds 13% of her - that is, less than 1/7.

The same - and relatively another critical neighbor - Poland. If 19 years ago Ukraine (the heir to the Ukrainian SSR) was economically more than Poland by 14%, 205 against 180 billion $ (Factbook 1993), then already in 2003 - Poland is 1.7 times more than it. And now - almost 2.4 times.

There are two reasons, and both are important:

• Ukraine is part of a powerful empire, a supplier of managerial personnel and a base of advanced industry of a huge Eurasian market - this is one thing, and an independent one that has lost markets, devoid of cheap energy sources of a single state, this is another;

• The Orange Revolution and the incompetent rule of V. Yushchenko (2005-2010) during the period under review.

In general, it can be clearly seen that revolutions (of different colors) for large countries are an unacceptable luxury and a source of huge problems for subsequent development. On the example of Ukraine, it is clear that the "orange" countries did not solve any problems, but many aggravated the previous ones. By the way, this also applies to Russia, if similar events hypothetically occur in it - only the damage will be even greater, since the system is more complex and the economy is larger. That is, evolution is both cheaper and safer than revolution.

2008:15% GDP crash

The 2008-2009 global financial crisis demonstrated how overheated both economies were. Ukraine booming at the expense of a large financial bubble that burst in September 2008, causing it to fall GDP by 15% (and GDP Russia by 7.8%). Neither Russia nor Ukraine carried out any major reforms after the 2008 crisis. Ukraine saved, and IMF- Russia its foreign exchange reserves.

2000-2007: GDP growth of 7.5% per year

In 2000-2007, both countries achieved stable growth: Ukraine - on average by 7.5% per year, and Russia - by 7% per year.

1989-1999: A 61% collapse in GDP over 10 years

In 1995-1999, Ukraine and Russia showed equally poor results. In the decade from 1989 to 1999, Ukraine's GDP fell by at least 61% and Russia's GDP by 59%. Both economies have been awakened since Russia's 1998 financial crisis. They were forced to balance budgets and cut crippling subsidies to businesses, pushing economic growth.

See also

• Russia's GDP
• Spain's GDP
• China's GDP

Notes