Main article: India
Labour market
Demographic curse
According to the United Nations Development Program report "Shaping the Future: How Changing Demographics Can Power Human Development" (2017), to absorb the "demographic dividend" (in the new economic reality, perhaps a "demographic curse"?) India will need to create 280 million new jobs by 2050. Just. What does not happen and did not happen for a long time.
According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the Indian economy lost about 2 million jobs in 2017. At the same time, the population included in the labor force decreased from 406.5 million to 404.6 million people[1].
The immediate reason is the negative effect of demonetisation of the end of 2016 and intense competition in the textile industry from Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, as well as the introduction of a new unified sales tax in the summer of 2017. The long-term structural cause is industrial workplace automation/robotization and reshoring.
Unlike aging developed economies (and some developing, including Russia), the working-age population of India is replenished annually by about 1%, or 10 million people (9.7 million in 2017, up to 960 million people). Accordingly, the labor market should absorb most of these people (not all 100%, since suppose that some of the youth study longer, even if this share is very small).
According to Labour Bureau statistical yearbooks, in the period 2011-2015, only 7 million jobs were created (from 455 million to 462 million). In fact, the Indian economy grew (the average annual growth rate GDP in 2011-2017 was 6.6%, per capita it was much less - 5.4%), almost without creating new jobs against the background of serious demographic growth (over the period 2011-2015, the share of population participation in the labor market decreased from 55.4% to 52.4%).
The pace of contraction has accelerated in recent years. Thus, in 2017, the share of population participation in the labor market decreased from 46.9% to 44.5% (already very low compared to developed countries, which is somewhat explained by the high level of participation in men - 75% and very low in women - 23.7%).
Formal employment in India accounts for only about 15% of all employment (worse than, for example, Mexico, but better than most African countries).
At the same time, more than half of the population is employed in the unproductive agricultural sector, in the service sector - about a third, the share of industry - about 12%. In addition, it has not changed significantly for almost 30 years, as well as the share of industry in GDP of 15% - a clear sign of premature deindustrialization according to Rodrik (more here).
The service industry can hardly be called a generator of high-performance jobs. India is rightly proud of giants in the field information technology like Infosys and. Wipro However, the entire ITBPO (information technology and) sector outsourcing business processes in India gives jobs, according to various estimates, from 1 million to 5 million people. That's less than 1% of jobs.
Limitations of the caste system. Wealth for the Chosen
At the same time, the labor market is superimposed on a rigid caste system that supports and increases inequality. Jobs in ITBPO are almost exclusively for the few well-educated representatives of the highest castes (primarily Brahmins and Vaishyas). Basically, the service sector is exclusively primitive: street vendors, security guards, cleaners, etc. These medieval mass professions are occupied by lower castes.
Impressive growth GDP India in the last decade has not changed the structures of the economy and has not led to the formation of productive jobs. Two-thirds of the growth was in the financial sector and real estate (FIRE - finance, insurance, real estate) with the actual stagnation of industry.
As a result, the fruits of economic growth were almost exclusively used by high-caste elites.
Approximately half (and eight of the top 10) of the 101 Indian billionaires on the Forbes list belong to the same caste - Bania, mainly from the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat (Mahatma Gandhi was also Gujarati Bania). This caste includes less than 1% of the population of India. But, according to economist Aakar Patel, the share of bathing in national income is 24%.
Bania is a caste of varna (estate) merchants - Vaishiev. Vaishyas in traditional Hindu society are a privileged class of "two-born" along with Brahmins (clerics and teachers) and Kshatriyas (warriors and rulers). Below - Shudra (peasants) and those outside the traditional estate division are untouchables - Dalits.
Caste borders in India are strictly observed for 2017 - the share of inter-caste marriages does not exceed 5%. Of the remaining half of billionaires, there are also many representatives of traditional powerful trading clans, for example, Parsis (descendants of Zoroastrians who fled to India after the invasion of Islam in Persia). Billionaires Brahmins are also found, mainly they succeeded in the IT sector (by the way, Brahmins and Vaishyas control almost all media in the country, the judicial system and the civil service are the traditional privilege of Brahmins).
Inequality in India is growing, as well as around the world: according to the study by Tom Piketty and Luke Chansel "Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2014: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?," The share of national income accounted for by the 1% richest rose in 2014 to a maximum from the colonial 1922 - 22%.
The situation of the lower castes, the Muslim minority and the 170 million group of untouchable Dalits (more than the entire population of Russia) is still not much different from the medieval one. 70-80% of Dalits are illiterate, 90% are landless farm laborers, thousands of whom commit suicide annually due to debts, thousands become victims of violence by representatives of higher castes for various "sins" like attempts to use public wells or roads (historian Mridu Rai calls what is happening a caste war).
Few can take advantage of quotas for the representation of the untouchable and other lower castes and tribes in power - the educational qualification is too high. At the same time, all "warm" places have long been appropriated by subcasts of untouchables loyal to the system.
Interestingly, Mahatma Gandhi, revered around the world, is largely responsible for the current caste apartheid. He, despite the successful politpiar (vegetarianism, fasting, satyagraha, non-violence, spiritual practices, "poverty rituals," the image of a "saint"), acted as an apologist for the caste system and at certain periods held completely racist views (see, for example, B. R. Ambedkar, S. Anand, Arundhati Roy "Annihilation of Caste: The Annotated Critical Edition").
The destruction of the caste system, the exit of the untouchables from Hinduism and the transition to any other religion was advocated by Gandhi's political opponent - Dalit Dr. Ambedkar, little known outside India. Gandhi took Ambedkar's call as a threat to the caste system and, as a sensitive politician, advocated the integration of the untouchables into Hinduism.
Be that as it may, GDP growth in the last 20 years, on which the population of Indian high-caste billionaires rose (in 2014, the Forbes Indian list was twice as short as in 2017), practically did not affect the poorest low-caste segments of the population. In general, and in the middle too.
By the number of billionaires, India ranks fourth in the world (after the United States, China and Germany). But the number of simply wealthy people with assets from $1 million to $5 million on the scale of the country is simply tiny - 245 thousand (according to Credit Suisse). This is less than, for example, in Austria or Belgium, which have more than a hundred times less population.
Robotization and Automation
To grow the well-being of the general population, good jobs are needed. And they don't show up. Rather the opposite. There are few large companies in India - only 1.4% of companies have more than 10 employees, while the share of large enterprises is falling, in 1990 there were just over 3% (and they accounted for 37% of all employment, and now - 21%). This is partly due to the mistakes of economic policy, partly because India's industrial sector is experiencing the same phenomena as around the world: gradual automation and robotization of jobs.
Interestingly, automation already affects the most productive sectors - IT companies and the pharmaceutical industry. Despite the industry's revenue growth of 8.6% in 2016-2017 (India's fiscal year ends in March), employment growth was just 5%, according to IT industry association Nasscom. And in the next three years, Nasscom expects a 20-25% reduction in industry employment due to the introduction of automation and machine learning. Industry leaders Infosys and Wipro have already cut 8-9 thousand and 3.2 thousand jobs, respectively, and this is just the beginning.
At risk of automation/robotization and reshoring is also the largest industry sector in terms of employment - the production of textiles, clothing and footwear (6% of GDP, 14% of industrial production, 13% of exports), which employs about 35 million people (and about 95 million, given the associated employment in the agricultural sector).
Indian officials have covered mountains of paper, predicting employment growth in the industry (for example, the Vision, Strategy, Action Plan for Indian Textile Sector strategy of 2015 planned to create another 35 million jobs by 2025). However, according to estimates by the International Labor Organization (ILO), the introduction of automation in the industry can free up up up to 86% of those employed in Vietnam and up to 88% in Bangladesh. The ILO economists did not consider the Indian textile industry, but it is hardly technically more perfect than in these countries.
In total, according to the calculations of the report of the McKinsey Global Institute "India's Labor Market: A New Emphasis on Gainful Employment, "published in the summer of 2017, with modern technology in India, 52% of all today's jobs can be automated. In principle, these figures do not differ much from the possibilities of automation in other countries (for China, for example, McKinsey gives a level of 51%), but in India the situation is complicated by the growth of the able-bodied population.
2022: Proportion of workers aged 65 or over - above 20%
2011: More than 13.6% of workers work 60 or more hours a week
Incomes of the population
2023: Minimum wage - $95
2020: Per capita income in Indian states
GDP
Main article: India's GDP
Non-financial debt
2022: Aggregate non-financial debt
National debt
The ratio of public debt to the country's GDP
2023: State debt - 83% of GDP
2017: State debt - 71% of GDP
Public debt per capita
External debt
2019: Debt to Russia - $1.7 billion
with
Gold and foreign exchange reserves
2022: Reserves cut to $580 billion
By July 2022, RBI reserves fell from their peak of $642 billion by more than 10% from September 2021. However, their current level of $580 billion continues to remain in fifth place in the world.
2021
Reserve growth to $600 billion
According to the head of the Central Bank Shaktikanta Das, by the beginning of June 2021, foreign exchange reserves, India by all indications, exceeded 600 billion dollars US dollars, which is a huge buffer that will help isolate the third largest economy from Asia global side effects and unstable external flows.
India moves Russia from 4th place in the world in terms of reserves
In March 2021, foreign exchange reserves India outperformed Russia and became the fourth largest in the world, as the country's central bank continues to accumulate dollars to protect the economy from any sudden outflows.
Indian foreign exchange assets fell 4.3 billion dollars to $580.3 billion as of March 5, the Reserve Bank of India said, but beat Russia's $580.1 billion.
China has the largest reserves, followed by Japan and Switzerland in the IMF table.
Sovereign Wealth Fund
Rupee and Cryptocurrency Currency
Digital Rupee (CBDC-R)
Main Article: Digital Rupee (CBDC-R)
Cryptocurrencies in India
Main article: Cryptocurrencies in India
2022: Record drop in rupee to dollar
By the end of August 2022, the Indian rupee had fallen to an all-time low against the dollar.
2019: $291 billion worth of rupees in circulation
The gold supply as of August 2019 is $8.7 trillion, the US dollar supply is $1.7 trillion.
Budget
2023: World's biggest budget deficit: 10% in 4 years
From 2020 to 2023, India recorded an exorbitant budget deficit of 10.1%, compared with a deficit of 7% of GDP from 2013 to 2019, which is worse than in any other country in the world.
Inflation
2022
Inflation in November - 6.8%
August - inflation rises to 7%
Inflation in India accelerated to 7% in August 2022 due to high food prices.
2021
2020
Key rate
2023: Key rate increase to 6.5%
Banks and lending
2024: Boom in salaries of banking specialists
By March 2024, India's top traders are receiving millions in salaries. Ambitious Indian finance professionals have never done so well. Amid rising wealth and fear of investors missing out on their chance, the country has become a global recruiting hotspot.
2023
Low household debt: 46% of GDP
India bank headcount rises to 1.8m
Stock market
2024: Capitalization growth to $4 trillion
Businessmen
Billionaires in India
2023: Top 1% of Indians own 40% of the country's wealth - record since 1961
Wealth, concentrated in the hands of the richest 1% of residents, India is at its highest level in 60 years, and the percentage of income exceeds a similar figure in countries like Brazil and, the USA World Inequality Lab research group found.
By the end of 2023, India's richest citizens owned 40.1% of the country's wealth, the highest since 1961, and their share of total income was 22.6%, the highest since 1922.
2022: Confiscation of property of residents who accepted Chinese and Pakistani citizenship
India confiscated the property of residents who took China citizenship and. Pakistan As The Economic Times reported in February 2023, citing the MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS Indian government in 2018-2022 raised $410.7 million from the sale of this property, which was transferred to income. states
The confiscation and sale included shares and other securities, the shares of emigrants in 152 Indian companies, as well as 1.6 tons of gold and over 26 tons of silver in local banks that left India.
2021: The richest 1% of citizens account for 40.6% of the population's assets
2020: 4th in the world in the number of billionaires - 102
Minerals
2023: Discovery of a large lithium deposit
In mid-February 2023, Indian authorities announced the discovery of the world's largest lithium deposit. The volume of lithium in the deposits found in the states of Jammu and Kashmir is reported to be 5.9 million tonnes. Read more here.
2022
9th in the world in uranium mining with 600 tons
15 million people involved in small-scale mining
2021
India's share of global rare earth mineral production - 1%
Oil production per day
2018: 5th in terms of mining output
Power
NPP
2023: Construction of the world's largest solar wind farm
In mid-August 2023, Indian company Adani Green Energy Limited announced the completion of the world's largest solar wind farm. The site is located in the Indian state of Rajasthan in the northwest of the country. Read more here.
2022:19 nuclear reactors in operation
2021: Dependence on coal in the electric power industry
India and China defended the future of coal for a reason at the Glasgow climate summit in November 2021: no country has introduced more coal-fired power plant capacity than these two major issuers in the past decade.
In 2021, China and India produce a total of 14 million tons per day. Not only does coal still play a crucial role in meeting their current energy needs, it also looks set to play that role for many more decades.
2020: Low per capita energy consumption
and
Production
Main article: Manufacturing in India
Foreign trade
Main article: India's Foreign Trade
Import of oil, petroleum products, gas and coal
Main article: Import of oil, petroleum products, gas and coal in India
Information Technology
Digitalization of India's public sector
Main Article: IT in India's Public Sector
Semiconductors (Indian market)
Main Article: Semiconductors (Indian Market)
India IT Market
Smartphones (Indian market)
Main article: Smartphones (Indian market)
Export of computer equipment and IT services from India
Main article: Export of computer equipment and IT services from India
Digital India
Main article: Digital India
Financial Technology
Main article: Financial Technology (Fintech) in India
Cars
Main article: Cars in India
Agriculture
2021
In the five largest countries supplying rice (120.55 million tons)
Share of agricultural land - 60%
2019: Low use of pesticides in agriculture
Tourism
2020:38 UNESCO-protected World Heritage Sites
2018: India is among the top countries in terms of tourism revenue
1900
Gold market
2021: Gold Jewelry World Market# 2
Alcohol market
Wineries
- Sula Vineyards
- Grover Zampa Vineyards
2021: India alcohol consumption map by state
2018: Minimum age to purchase alcoholic beverages
R&D
2020: R&D spending - $48.1 billion
Astronautics
Main article: Cosmonautics in India
Real estate
2020:49% of urban population lives in slums
Consumption
2023
Take-off consumption of low-quality food
In 2023, global junk food giants see countries like India as a lifeline as public awareness of healthy eating grows in Western markets.
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Fish consumption is higher than meat consumption
Notes
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