Ethiopian hydroelectric power station on the Nile (The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam)

2022: Launch of the first of 13 turbines

On February ​​20, 2022, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took part in the ceremony of launching the first of 13 turbines of the Hidase hydroelectric power station (Renaissance) on the Blue Nile in units. Benishangul-Gumuz, 30 km from the Sudanese border. The capacity of the cascade of dams built since 2011 will be 5250 MW, and the total cost of the project is estimated at $4.2 billion.

Hidase became the largest African hydropower project and a key element of Ethiopia's industrialization strategy, but its construction was negatively perceived by the countries downstream of the Nile - Egypt and Sudan - due to the perceived reduction in water flow in the Nile.

Since 2012, negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt in different formats and at different platforms have not yielded results for the sake of developing an agreement that suits everyone, and the consultations ended on April 6, 2021 in Kinshasa without a compromise. They were aimed at mitigating the possible negative effects of reducing water supply to the Nile: Egypt insisted on a 21-year filling time for the reservoir, but Ethiopia expected to reach the design level in 7 years.

Each side has invested a lot in this event. Ethiopia expects Hidase to provide 65 million people with electricity by 2024. HPP has become a truly popular project, partially financed by the issue of "dam" bonds (in the amount of 1-2 months of salaries of civil servants), special taxes, donations (including diasporas). Egypt, 97% providing itself with the waters of the Nile, considers the hydroelectric power station an "existential threat," wrote Zangaro Today.

For many in Egypt, despite loud statements from top officials, intense lobbying in the United States, as well as those achieved with Nile countries (Burundi, Uganda) agreements, this sensitive topic is perceived as a serious diplomatic failure, since Ethiopia, which faced the outbreak of civil war in November 2020 with serious diplomatic pressure, once again since July 2021 safely crossed the "red line" once voiced by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, unilaterally violating, according to Egypt, the Declaration of Principles 2015.

But in reality, Egypt does not have many options. The "military-technical response" seemed to be implied by a rapprochement with Sudan in 2020, culminating in a defense agreement (March 2. 2021) and joint Air Force exercises "Nile Eagles-2" (in April 2021), including the development of "resource protection." But with almost tenfold and high-quality superiority in aviation and combat helicopters, the inauguration in 2020 of a new "megabase" in Ras Banas on the Red Sea coast, Egypt's advantages are ending - a ground operation will require the transfer of armored units in 1250 km through Sudan; two helicopter carriers and eight submarines equipped only with anti-ship missiles - a bad help for such a purely ground invasion. In addition, the dam is well protected by Ethiopian troops relatively recently created for its protection by the North-Western Command and the air defense systems at its disposal (Pantsir-C1 air defense missile system, S-125 air defense system, Israeli Spyder-MR systems).

So far, Egypt is implementing alternative scenarios - water projects in other "Nile" countries to compensate for losses in the Nile level, the most important of which is a reanimated project to clear the Bahr el-Ghazal swampy channel and expand the Jonglei Canal completed by 70% in South Sudan to additionally link Bahr el-Ghazal with the Nile and provide this vital artery with an additional 3.2 billion cubic meters of water. Of course, coordination of the management of the Aswan hydroelectric power station and Hidase in case of droughts will also be required.

2020: Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan discuss Nile River dam project

In January 2020, the foreign ministers of the three countries completed three days of talks in Washington with World Bank President David Malpass.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project is 70% complete and promises to provide electricity to more than 100 million people in Ethiopia. Yet Egyptian officials worry that filling the reservoir too quickly could significantly reduce the Nile's waters. Addis Ababa plans to spend 12 years on this, Cairo offers 21 years.

The joint statement indicated that this should happen in stages during the rainy season, which usually lasts from July to August. In addition, officials discussed rules and principles that could mitigate drought conditions based on natural Nile runoff and the rate at which water is discharged from the dam reservoir.

However, these decisions are not final. Representatives of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan plan to meet again in Washington on January 28-29, 2020.

2019: Ethiopia and Egypt share Nile waters

A hydroelectric power plant Addis Ababa is building on one of the world's longest rivers.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will allow Ethiopia to become the largest exporter of electricity in Africa. It is capable of generating more than 6,000 MW.

The two countries disagree on annual water runoff. For Egypt, the Nile is 90% fresh water, and for September 2019, Cairo wants Ethiopia's reservoir to release at least 40 billion cubic meters of water annually.

Addis Ababa said it was not ready for this and would put forward another proposal to Cairo.

One way or another, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will begin generating electricity by the end of 2020 and will only be fully operational by 2022 due to construction delays.

2011: Ethiopia starts building dam

Egyptian and Sudanese water quotas for the Nile were established back in the colonial era, so they exclude the other nine countries lying upstream of the Nile, primarily Ethiopia. Therefore, in 2010, Ethiopia enlisted the support of Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania, denounced the preemptive rights of Egypt and Sudan, and in 2011 took advantage of anti-government protests in Egypt and the division of Sudan and simply began to build a dam. And then, in 2013, she bought the neutrality of Sudan, which does not depend so much on the waters of the Nile: the country was promised to supply electricity after the dam was completed.