Oil and gas production
Main article: Oil and gas production in Europe
Pipelines
- Nord Stream (blown up by the US and Norway in 2022)
LNG terminals
In May 2023, experts suggested that Europe rushed to secure LNG, trying to ease the devastating energy crisis that arose due to pressure on Russia. There is now a possibility that her plans to build new terminals to import that fuel have gone too far. Demand for natural gas may decline in the long term. Building too many facilities could see assets stranded.
Gas storage facilities
As of 2022, national governments have practically no control over gas supplies in the EU countries. Only about 10% of the gas in storage facilities from Italy to the Netherlands is directly controlled by government officials through national strategic reserves. The rest is in the hands of international trading companies, energy businesses and industrial groups, and companies are free to sell gas to the highest bidder, even if it is in another country.
2024
Western Europe increases LNG supplies from Russia and cuts from the United States
The influence of Russian LNG in Western Europe is growing as American fuel goes to other countries.
Global competition for gas is making it increasingly difficult for this region to refuse supplies from Russia.
In May, Russia bypassed the United States in gas supplies to the EU
In May 2024, for the first time in almost two years, Russia overtook the United States as a gas supplier to Europe.
Russia is the second largest LNG supplier in the EU
In April 2024, the EU's energy regulator warned that the bloc still needed to import Russian LNG to avoid an energy shock, even amid a push by a group of member states to ban purchases of the fuel from Moscow.
"The reduction in Russian LNG imports should be considered gradually," said the Acer report, which emphasizes that the EU is difficult to find a balance between energy security and the desire to strike at finances Russia by reducing gas purchases.
France in January 2024 increased LNG imports from Russia to a maximum from November 2022, buying it for €293 million - the media.
Spain acquired €274 million of gas from Russia at the beginning of 2024, the highest figure in 12 months. Small purchases were also made by Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and Estonia - a total of €118 million. As a result, in January, the EU acquired LNG from Russia for the maximum since May 2023 €684.3 million.
2023
Forced decrease in gas consumption by 19.1% to 463.4 billion cubic meters, the minimum since 1994
After a sharp reduction in gas purchases from Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, European countries were forced to reduce gas consumption by 19.1% in two years or minus 109 billion cubic meters. Gas consumption in 2023 amounted to only 463.4 billion cubic meters, which is the minimum since 1994! The maximum consumption was in 2008 - 626 billion cubic meters, in 2011-2021 the average consumption was 548 billion, and the minimum was about 500 billion cubic meters in 2014.
Pipeline gas supplies to EU countries from Russia have decreased by more than 5 times from 2021 and 3.4 times, if we consider all European countries taking into account Turkey. However, LNG supplies have even grown slightly.
Together, Russia supplied more than 185 billion cubic meters to Europe in 2021, where 168 billion cubic meters of gas through the pipe and 17 billion cubic meters of LNG, and in 2023 - 69.2 billion cubic meters, where only 49.8 billion and 19.4 billion cubic meters of LNG through the pipe.
Gas production in Europe decreased by 3.2% in two years (2023 by 2021) or 6.8 billion cubic meters. Over 20 years, production decreased by 37.4% or 122 billion cubic meters) over 10 years a decrease of 27% or 76 billion cubic meters, and over 5 years a decrease of 13.2% or more than 30 billion cubic meters. The trend is steadily downward.
The largest country in production is Norway - 116.6 billion cubic meters, Britain - 35 billion, Ukraine - 17.7 billion, Romania - 9 billion cubic meters.
The net need for imports is 259 billion cubic meters (approximately at the level of 2015-2016), while in 2021 the gap was a record at 363 billion cubic meters. The average import demand in 2011-2021 was 291 billion cubic meters, and in 2017-2021 - almost 320 billion cubic meters.
Structure of gas imports to the EU. Russia in 3rd place in terms of supply volume
If we consider Europe as a holistic energy circuit, withdrawing from the calculations of gas supplies between European countries, including gas supplies by Norway over 100 billion cubic meters, the net incoming flow of pipeline gas in 2023 amounted to 111.6 billion cubic meters in accordance with BP, Eurostat, S&P Global and Spydell Finance calculations.
These are cumulative supplies from outside to Europe - it is important to exclude any form of re-export within European countries.
The maximum net import of pipeline gas from outside to Europe was 276.1 billion cubic meters in 2008, from 2000 to 2008 an average of 243 billion cubic meters, from 2011 to 2021 inclusive an average of 230 billion cubic meters, and in 2021 - 232.8 billion.
In the structure of clean imports of pipeline gas in 2021, Russia accounted for 168 billion cubic meters, African countries - 37.2 billion, the Middle East - 9.1 billion, the CIS countries - 18.7 billion cubic meters.
How has the structure changed in 2023? Russia - 49.8 billion (-70.3% in two years), Africa - 33 billion (-11.3%), the Middle East - 5.2 billion (-43%), the CIS countries - 23.6 billion cubic meters (+ 26.2%).
Net LNG imports in 2023 amounted to 160 billion cubic meters vs 164 billion in 2022 and 103.3 billion in 2021. The sharp increase in LNG supplies was in 2019 - at once + 51.2 billion cubic meters and in 2022 with an increase of 61 billion cubic meters.
Prior to this, the peak of deliveries was in 2010 at the level of 84 billion cubic meters and a protracted decrease by 2014 to 39 billion cubic meters.
According to the results of 2023, the share of gas imports into the EU through the pipe is only 41% vs 48% in 2022, 69.3% in 2021, an average of 77.6% in 2011-2021 and 84.5% in 2000-2008.
Total net imports in 2023 amounted to 271.6 billion cubic meters vs 316 billion in 2022, 336 billion in 2021, an average of 298 billion in 2011-2023 and peak deliveries of 347 billion in 2019.
Thus, the decrease in gas imports in 2023 relative to 2021 amounted to 19.2% or more than 64 billion cubic meters, where through the pipe minus 52%, and LNG plus 55%.
The main diversification of supplies occurred at the expense of the United States, where LNG imports increased from 30.8 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 76.2 billion cubic meters in 2023.
Russia's share in gas imports to Europe decreased to 18.4% vs 50% in 2021 and 68% in 2013.
Gazprom's transit to the EU through Ukraine tends to zero
Main article: Gazprom's business in Ukraine
Slight decrease in LNG imports from Russia
Imports of Russian liquefied natural gas to the EU declined slightly in 2023 after soaring in 2022.
Gas-dependent Europe is changing one energy risk to another. Due to the inability to replace Russian fuel with renewable energy sources, the continent is increasingly turning to American natural gas, which is much more risky.
Europe's dependence on American LNG will only grow if more Russian gas does not appear, and Qatar decides not to get involved in a price war for market share. The "reward" for Europe will be a diverse set of American suppliers. Risk - major political changes in the United States in the future.
US share of EU LNG shipments rises to 49%
The supply of Russian LNG to the EU in August 2023 decreased due to the repair of plants and a decrease in demand. The country's share of EU LNG imports in August fell to about 10% - down from 19% in March 2022 during panic purchases linked to the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine.
The share of the United States, the first LNG supplier to Europe, increased to 49% in August 2023, and Qatar retained its 15%.
Growth of LNG imports from Russia in the first 7 months
According to Global Witness for January-July 2023, LNG exports from Russia to the EU increased compared to the same period last year.
Belgium, thanks to its status as a transit hub, is the third largest importer of Russian LNG in the world, taking 17% of the country's exported fuel, second only to China and Spain.
Growth in diesel supplies from the Middle East and the United States
By May 2023, Europe is making up for lost Russian diesel supplies. Supplies from other countries rose sharply, with May shipments jumping to a 4-month high amid increased flows from the Middle East and the United States.
Spain's Repsol asks EU authorities to stop buying Russian oil through intermediaries
Russian oil continues to flow to Europe through third countries, despite the sanctions. This was announced by the director of the Spanish energy company Repsol. He called for tougher restrictions to eliminate this possibility. "We ask the European authorities to stop these imports through intermediaries," John Imaz told Josu.
Non-profitability of oil refining due to the refusal of available oil from Russia and the growth of imports of petroleum products from India and China
The Russian "oil boom" by April 2023 was a problem for refiners who miss out. As a result, they are thinking about reducing production. There are also suggestions that cuts could happen in Europe in the near future.
In parts of Asia where Russian oil is no longer sold because of sanctions, refineries barely profit from processing Middle Eastern barrels. At the same time, the refining margin of buyers of Russian oil is still high.
Russian oil is still powering Europe's cars with India's help.
India imports a record amount of Russian crude oil, in April 2023 it became the largest supplier of petroleum products to Europe.
In the fall, Europe consumes diesel fuel, which was most likely produced from Russian oil.
According to Kpler, imports of diesel fuel from India, one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, could rise to 305 thousand barrels per day, the largest since at least January 2017.
Although it is impossible to say with confidence that the molecules were obtained from Russia - India also processes oil from other countries - supplies from Russia gave Indian refineries the opportunity to produce excess diesel fuel and increase exports.
Russia ranked second in LNG supplies to Europe in the first two months
Russia ranked second in terms of LNG supplies to Europe in the first two months of 2023, overtaking Qatar.
Norway expects additional revenues of 180 billion euros from oil and gas after the explosion of Russian gas pipelines
Norway in February 2023 predicts an additional 180 billion euros in oil and gas revenues for 2022 and 2023 and is ready to fuel the conflict in Ukraine with money and weapons.
In February 2023, journalist Seymour Hersh said that a decompression chamber for Norwegian divers, who, according to him, blew up Russian gas pipelines Nord Stream"," was provided for training by representatives. CIA To install explosives at a depth of 260 meters, divers trained in the waters of the Baltic Sea somewhere between Denmark and. Sweden
The investigation of Mr. Hersh in Norway itself was taken with exceptional seriousness. A few days after its publication, the security service suddenly published a report assessing possible threats against Norway.
The kingdom's oil and gas facilities are designated in it as potential sabotage facilities. Norway is fueling energy supplies to Europe, the chair from under Russia is knocked out, so protecting infrastructure in the context of the ongoing conflict is becoming a priority. Apparently, Oslo is seriously afraid of acts of retaliation by the Russian leadership, which has already familiarized itself with Hersh's investigation.
Sharp decline in gas prices due to forced reduction in consumption by 19%
By the end of January 2023, gas prices in the EU fell below the level before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 and below the level of prices in the United States.
The EU is cutting gas consumption by almost a fifth this winter, beating the 15% target set to help survive the heating season with much lower purchases in Russia.
Gas consumption in the bloc from August to January was 19% below the average for the previous five years, according to data released by Eurostat. The largest drop occurred in Finland - consumption more than halved, and demand grew only in Malta and Slovakia.
The commission will consult on whether to extend the 15% demand reduction target.
Oil from Russia will flow to the German refinery bypassing European sanctions under the guise of Kazakh
Germany has received confirmation of commercial crude oil supplies for the Schwedt refinery, which will arrive in the Polish port of Gdansk in January 2023.
The cargo of 100 thousand tons will be delivered to the Polish port by tanker and then through the Polish pipeline system to Shvedt by the end of January. In accordance with previous agreements, from February it is planned to transport more volumes through Gdansk.
Since the beginning of 2023, the Shvedt refinery has been operating at 50% capacity due to the cessation of supplies of Russian raw materials, since it worked on Urals crude oil via the Druzhba oil pipeline. But in recent months, management has carried out "good preparation" and now the plant seems to be able to produce products without Russian oil, the Rybar channel noted.
In order for Warsaw to agree to help Berlin with supplies, it had to make concessions and take control of Rosneft's Rosneft Deutschland division, which partially owned the refinery. And although other details of the deal are unknown, since they are determined by contracts between companies, there is a high probability that oil is still Russian: it simply comes from Kazakhstan. It was on him that the German authorities pinned their hopes.
In December 2022, Germany reported that Poland was ready to provide enough oil to load the enterprise in Schwedt by 70% from January, and that oil from Kazakhstan would help replenish imports from the Russian Federation, which were stopped due to the imposed sanctions.
Kazakhstan KMG Trading, a subsidiary of the state oil company KazMunayGas JSC, supplies 13 million tons per year to the Russian pipeline system and receives an equivalent amount of Urals oil, which it can then sell internationally.
In January 2023 , it became known that KazTransOil JSC, part of the KazMunayGas group, received permission from the Russian Ministry of Energy to transport 300 thousand tons of oil for further supply to Germany. And it is the refinery in Schwedt in Brandenburg that is the end point of transit.
However, the planned oil supplies from Kazakhstan to Gdansk will not be able to meet the needs of refineries in Shvedt and local consumers. The technological process at the plant is tuned specifically to the Russian grade Urals, and its large-scale modernization for the grades of other suppliers has not been officially announced.
The guaranteed loading of refineries requires much larger volumes than can be provided by tanker deliveries. In addition, tanker freight rates have increased significantly over the past year, and the number of available ships has decreased. Against this background, pipeline supplies are a more reliable source of oil.
With a high probability, Kazakh oil will mix with Russian oil to the parameters necessary for stable operation of the refinery, or part of the supplies will be completely Russian. This is quite a working option, given the fact that mutual oil supplies between Russia and Kazakhstan are the norm.
Britain stopped importing LNG from Russia
Britain stopped importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia from January 1, 2023
2022
Production and import requirements in Europe
Energy import spending growth of €300bn to €652bn
How much do EU countries spend on oil and gas? This data is open and is displayed in Eurostat's trade statistics.
If we isolate oil, gas, coal and energy derivatives according to SITC codes, it turns out that in 2022 net expenses amounted to 652 billion euros, in 2021 - 285.9 billion, in 2020 - 157.3 billion, in 2019 - 259.8 billion, in 2018 - 279.2 billion In 2012, when energy was expensive - 397 billion, and in 2013 - 357.2 billion euros.
It is clear that 2020 is an anomaly, so if we take expenses for 2018, 2019 and 2021, an average of 275 billion euros per year or 23 billion per month comes out, which is considered the norm for EU countries.
Thus, excess spending in 2022 amounted to 280-300 billion euros, which is very at odds with the estimate of energy damage of 1 trillion euros, which was written about by Western media. True, electricity and indirect/secondary costs from energy prices are not taken into account here.
We are talking precisely about net expenses, i.e. imports minus exports, in order to exclude domestic-European re-export of energy carriers. For comparison, gross expenses in 2022 were 832 billion, and net - 652 billion euros.
As of February 2023, net energy import costs amounted to 35 billion euros, and the maximum were in August 2022 - 70 billion euros per month.
There is much to decrease in costs, because the actual costs in customs statistics are higher than the average monthly prices for oil, gas and coal in accordance with the volumes of supplies, which indicates the specifics of trade contracts for the supply of energy products, which have a lag in comparison with the average market prices, Spydell Finance wrote.
The monetary valuation is useful in that it takes into account the specifics of pricing for the supply of energy raw materials. Not all contracts are tied to exchange prices.
Increase in gas purchase costs 3.3 times to 208 billion euros after conflict with Russia
According to Eurostat, after refusing to supply from Russia, EU spending on the purchase of liquefied and pipeline gas in 2022 jumped 3.3 times - to 208 billion euros against 62.5 billion a year earlier.
Sharp decline in EU gas consumption
Europe pays a big price for the accelerated abandonment of Russian gas. According to its own calculations, gas imports in 2022 amounted to about 410-420 billion euros, compared with 148 billion in 2021 and average expenses of 51 billion from 2016 to 2020.
Accordingly, excess expenses of about 270 billion euros compared to 2021 and over 360 billion euros relative to average expenses in 2016-2020. This is only gas, excluding oil and coal.
But Europe manages to get rid of Russia at an accelerated pace, albeit with significant costs at all levels. The cash equivalent is roughly understandable, but what about physical consumption?
From May to November 2022, gas consumption in the YeS-27 countries decreased by 16.6% compared to the average consumption in the period from 2017 to 2021, the Spydell Finance channel noted. Why is May chosen? It was from May that the decline in consumption began year-on-year with a tendency to accelerate.
From August to November 2022, consumption fell by 20%, and from October to November, the collapse in gas demand by almost 24%.
The REPowerEU concept and EU Directive 2022/1369 set a target for a 15% forced reduction in consumption from August 2022 to March 2023, at a minimum. At the end of November 2022, it can be recorded that Europe is overfulfilling the plan to reduce gas demand.
REPowerEU is a comprehensive plan until 2030 that includes many aspects: normalized energy consumption, a plan to urgently replace Russian energy resources with alternative suppliers and energy sources, improving the energy efficiency of the economy, an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, etc.
From March to November 2022, the main contribution to the decline in demand was made by: Germany (27.8% in the total decline in demand), Italy (14.1%), the Netherlands (11.8%), France (8.4%) and Poland (7.6%). These countries contributed 70% to the pan-European decline in gas demand.
Growth of LNG imports from Russia to 19.2 billion cubic meters
Imports of Russian LNG to the EU in 2022 were the highest in three years, despite an 80 percent decrease in imports of pipeline gas from the Russian Federation, Anadolu reported in March 2023. The EU banned imports of Russian coal in August 2022, followed by bans on marine crude oil in December 2022 and petroleum products in February 2023. However, the EU still imports Russian LNG, and in 2022, Russian LNG exports to the EU reached a three-year high of 19.2 billion cubic meters.
Almost half of Russian LNG exports go to Europe, and according to BP, compared to 2021, supplies increased from 17.4 to 19.6 billion cubic meters. Russia's share in the European LNG market decreased from 16.1% to 11.5%, as Europe actively replaced losses of pipeline gas through LNG, the main supplier of which was the United States.
Russia ranks third in Europe in terms of LNG supplies after the United States (72.1 billion cubic meters) and Qatar (28 billion cubic meters), and the closest competitor of Russia is Algeria with supplies of 13.4 billion cubic meters per year.
Russian pipeline exports to Europe decreased by 81.6 billion, so LNG compensated over ¾ from losses. From Azerbaijan, Iran, Algeria and Libya, pipeline gas imports to Europe almost did not change, and from Norway increased by 4 billion. The rest was offset through reduced consumption.
In 2021, the US share in the European LNG market was 28.5%, and became 42.4%. In 2022, Europe increased LNG supplies from 108.2 to 170.2 billion cubic meters (+ 57% or plus 62 billion cubic meters). In the structure of supply growth for 2022, the US contribution is almost 68% (42 billion out of 62 billion cubic meters of total growth).
Also, LNG supplies to Europe increased Qatar by 5.5 billion, Egypt by 4 billion and Norway by 3.5 billion cubic meters.
At the end Europe Turkey of 2022, including, imported about 125 million tons of LNG, about Russia 13% of this volume, estimated Maria Belova from Vybon Consulting. Russian LNG played a significant role in the gas market Europe in 2022 - the absence of 20 billion cubic meters of LNG supplies from Russia could play a critical role during the season of gas injection into underground gas storage facilities, said Sergey Skoltech Kapitonov, an expert at the Center for Energy Transition and ESG. The share of LNG in total Russian gas supplies has grown markedly - from 7% a year earlier to 25% of total gas supplies, said independent expert Alexander Sobko.[1]
Poland purchased liquefied hydrocarbon gas from the Russian Federation almost twice as much as the rest of Europe in 2022. "Poland is still the largest importer of LPG from Russia, this is one seventh of the fuel on our market," Rzeczpospolita wrote in March 2023. In 2022, Warsaw imported 710.3 million euros of liquefied gas from Russia, and the rest of the EU - by 417 million euros.
According to Kommersant, the main contribution to the increase in supplies was made by Novatek, whose Yamal LNG plant increased supplies to the EU by about 13.5%, to 14.65 million tons, Kommersant calculated based on data from the Kpler analytical system. Also, about 0.7 million tons came from another Novatek project - Cryogas-Vysotsk. Another project that allowed, albeit slightly, to increase LNG exports to Europe was Port LNG, launched by Gazprom in September 2022.
In January-September 2022, the European Union imported 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from Russia. This is 50% more than in the same period last year.
LNG is the main channel for gas supplies to Europe. By November 2022, LNG imports amounted to almost 12 billion cubic meters per month, repeating the highs of April 2022 - this is almost twice as high as in 2021. For the first time in the entire time of gas trade with Europe, LNG supplies significantly exceeded pipeline gas supplies from Russia.
At the same time, since June, LNG supplies from the United States have exceeded gas supplies from Gazprom. Gas balances are changing significantly, switching to LNG is taking place, an appropriate infrastructure is being built for this and logistics are being optimized.
Despite the sanctions, Russia's share in LNG by December 2022 is over 15% and remains at a stable level in 2022, while the share of pipeline gas is extremely falling.
Italy increased oil imports from Russia at the end of the year
Norway earned five times more than the norm for replacing Russia in gas supplies to the EU
Norway earned 528 billion kronor ($50 billion) from directly owning oil and gas production licenses in 2022, more than five times the amount earned in a typical year as the country became Europe's largest natural gas supplier.
Growth in the supply of petroleum products from Russia
Europe imports huge amounts of diesel as sanctions against Russia loom - the second-highest on record since 2016.
Nearly half of December's diesel imports - about the same ratio as in November - came from Russian vehicles. That means the EU still has a long way to go before it completely ditches fuel from Russia.
Europe is buying a record volume of diesel fuel since 2016 in December amid the entry into force of anti-Russian sanctions in February. Russia is the region's largest diesel supplier, according to Bloomberg.
In the first ten days of December Britain EU , more than 16 million barrels of diesel fuel were imported by sea.
Europe buys diesel at 1.6 million barrels per day, and 749.3 thousand barrels - from Russia. The region also imports the resource from Saudi Arabia, India, the UAE and the United States.
Algeria overtakes Russia in gas supplies to Europe via gas pipeline
Energy supplies from the United States to the EU caught up with supplies from Russia
Data excluding sales of Russian oil under the guise of Kazakh, etc.
US seizes market for LNG supplies to Europe
U.S. LNG exports to Europe are growing at unprecedented rates and volumes are breaking records. From January to October 2022, US LNG supplies reached 62 billion cubic meters, compared with 24.2 billion in 2021, 21 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 13.6 billion cubic meters in 2019 for the same period of time.
The Freeport LNG crash has knocked down export potential somewhat, but achievements in 2022 are impressive. Almost 70% of the structure of American LNG exports went to Europe.
American LNG exporters took advantage of the situation on time and very well and redistributed flows from Asia to Europe, using the opportunity to seize the market, compensating themselves for the costs. Europe generously paid for energy transformation and detachment from Russia, and the United States became the main and unconditional beneficiary. All that could be redistributed to Europe under existing contracts with Asian partners was redistribution. Everything that could be squeezed out of the existing fleet of gas carriers and physical capabilities by the terminal was squeezed out.
The battle for Europe's energy market has remained with the US, where the States are gaining dominant influence and trying to lock in the position through long-term discounted contracts ($400-600 per thousand cubic meters). The US has skillfully exploited chaos in disorientation to its advantage - rising exports, a takeover of a key market and generous compensation.
French President rebukes US for high gas prices
"Paying for gas is 4 times more than your own companies - it hardly looks like friendship," French President Emmanuel Macron said on October 14, 2022 about American gas prices.
EU spending on gas imports in the third quarter increased 3.5 times - up to 101 billion euros
EU spending on gas imports in the third quarter increased 3.5 times - up to 101 billion euros, follows from the EC report.
Reduction of the share of oil from Russia to 21% due to the growth of supplies from Africa
In September 2022, oil imports to Europe reached a 2-year high even amid a decline in Russia's share.
Russia remains the largest supplier of crude oil to Europe. However, the share of imports from this country in September 2022 decreased to 21%, compared with an average of 34% in 2021.
Non-Russian oil supplies to Europe rose to their highest level since at least 2016. The main growth was driven by increased flows from Africa, which accounted for 37% of imports in September.
The European Union in September 2022 again became the largest importer of Russian fossil fuels. From the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine until the end of September, the EU spent more than one hundred billion euros on fuel, Business Insider reports.
Germany: US and EU play against us and cash in on high fuel prices
On October 5, 2022, German Economy Minister Habek accused the United States and the European Union of overpricing gas, writes Die Welt. Officially German-friendly countries often play in the fuel market against Berlin and "get prices to the moon," the official said.
Rising diesel imports from the Middle East
Diesel supplies from the Middle East in September 2022 will be the highest in at least 3 years.
This month, the share of diesel and gas oil coming from the Middle East will rise to 31% of total imports, up from 19% in the previous 12 months, according to Vortexa Ltd. Cargo of Russian origin will be reduced to 39% from an average of 51%.
The share of Russian gas in the EU market has decreased since the beginning of the year from 50% to 9%
By the end of August 2022, the share of Russian gas in the EU market has decreased since the beginning of the year from 50% to 9%.
During NATO exercises, US divers install explosives under the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline, Norway detonates it
Legendary American journalist Seymour Hersh said in February 2023 that US divers, under the guise of NATO exercises in the summer of 2022 (BALTOPS 22), planted explosives under the Northern Streams. The Norwegian authorities were also involved in the explosion, since it was the Norwegians who activated the bomb.
Hersh claims that US President Biden decided to sabotage Nord Stream after more than 9 months of secret discussions with the national security team. For much of that time, the question was not whether to carry out the mission, but how to carry it out without clear clues about who was responsible.
Sharp reduction in gas consumption in the 1st half of the year
In the first half of 2022, total gas consumption in the EU decreased by 19.8% (YoY) or by 45 billion m3. The biggest drop in gas consumption was in the Baltic and Scandinavian countries: in Finland (-56.4%), Latvia (-33%), Lithuania (-28.8%), Denmark (-22.4%), Sweden (-23.8%) and Estonia (-17.5%).
In Western Europe, the most significant reductions were seen in the Netherlands (-25%), Belgium (-17.7%), Luxembourg (-17.1%) and Germany (-13.3%).
The largest contribution to the reduction of gas consumption in the EU in the first half of the year was made Germany (-7.3 billion m3 g/g) and (Netherlands-6.2). This reduction has a serious impact on industrial production.
Take-off of coal supplies from South Africa 6 times
Coal sales from the Republic of South Africa (South Africa) to Europe increased eightfold in the first six months of 2022 - Thungela Resources. The company said Europe was competing with Asia for South African coal.
The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Denmark, France, Italy and Ukraine are among the European countries increasing purchases.
In the first five months of 2022, European countries imported more than 3 million tons of coal from South Africa. This is more than 40% more than the total volume in 2021.
The increase in the number of ships carrying diesel fuel to Europe
A fleet of ships carrying diesel, one of the most important fuels in the world, heads to European markets facing energy security threats in August 2022.
Flows from Asia to Europe will reach a five-month high, Vortexa predicts. Supplies from the Middle East to Europe will also expand.
Oil supplies from Russia to the EU are declining
In search of replacing Russian gas, Europe takes LNG from third world countries
By August 2022, Europeans are creating unprecedented competition in global LNG markets and, as a result, depriving developing countries of gas, causing an energy crisis in them. Local energy companies are no longer able to purchase LNG at world prices, which have been inflated by Europeans. As a result, gas tankers are increasingly less likely to enter Asian ports.
Europe is pumping LNG out of the rest of the world and creating a crisis in developing countries, where social discontent is growing. Bangladesh has already accused the European Union of luring LNG producers with money and plunging millions of people in developing countries into darkness.
Britain buys Russian oil bypassing sanctions due to acute energy crisis in the country
According to Refinitiv, which provides data on financial markets and infrastructure, the United Kingdom from the end of February to the end of June 2022 acquired £800 million worth of diesel fuel from Russia. British ports received five shipments of fuel in April, four in May and one in June.
In addition to refined fuel, even Russian crude oil can be imported, the article says. To avoid legal obstacles, containers are filled with 51 percent energy from another country. The mixed oil is then delivered to the port of Novorossiysk, after which hundreds of thousands of barrels of black gold are transported to the Exxon Fawley processing plant in Hampshire. From the raw materials that arrived in Britain, petroleum products are produced, which are then sold in the kingdom.
The United States for the first time supplied more gas to the EU than Russia
In June 2022, the United States for the first time supplied more gas to the EU than Russia.
Filling gas storage facilities in Europe. Schedule
EU signs agreement with Israel and Egypt on gas imports
On June 15, 2022, the EU, Israel and Egypt signed an agreement on the supply of Israeli gas to the countries of the European Union, according to the Associated Press (AP).
"I hearts welcome the signing of this historic agreement from all over," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Cairo at a press conference power engineering specialists with Israeli ministers and. Egypt
The agreement provides for an increase in gas supplies from Israel to Egypt to processing facilities, and then the transportation of already liquefied natural gas by tankers to Europe.
According to AP, Israel has two gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea - their total reserves are estimated at 690 billion cubic meters. Work is also underway at the third field. Earlier, Israel signed agreements on gas exports to Egypt and Jordan.
Kazakhstan sharply increased coal supplies to the EU
In January-May 2022, Kazakhstan supplied 1.5 million tons of coal to the European Union - almost twice as much as in the entire 2021. The increase was against the background of sanctions on supplies from Russia.
Increase in diesel fuel imports
Diesel imports to Europe in April 2022 will grow to the level last observed before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, even despite the reduction in supplies from Russia.
Diesel supplies to the continent are expected to jump to 1.45 million barrels per day this month, the highest since August 2019.
However, flows from Russia will account for 43% of the total April volume - reduced to the lowest level since December - compared with 56% on average for the entire last year.
A sharp increase in LNG purchases in January due to a reduction in Gazprom supplies
The policy of Gazprom, which refused to sell gas to Europe over long-term contracts and left its own storage facilities in Germany almost empty, has freed up a niche for LNG exporters. In January 2022, the EU countries purchased a record volume of liquefied gas in history - 11 billion cubic meters, experts from the GPB Center for Economic Forecasting calculated.
LNG accounted for 37% of all gas imports to Europe, and individual countries increased its purchases several times: France - 4.3 times (up to 3 billion cubic meters), Great Britain - three times (2.9 billion cubic meters). The total volume of supplies for the period from August to February increased 6 times and at its peak exceeded 300 million cubic meters per day.
From August to December, Gazprom's supplies to the EU decreased by almost a third, and in January 2022, the decline became landslide. The company reported selling 11.4 billion cubic meters abroad - 41% less than in the same month a year earlier.
In 2025, the world's LNG production is expected to grow from 346 to 449 million tons, and the market will face an excess of 26 to 34 million tons per year. At the same time, Gazprom will expire in 2025 long-term contracts for tens of billions of cubic meters with consumers in Europe and Turkey.
2021
Russia is the largest supplier of coal to European countries
For 2021 Russia , it sends most of its coal to Asia, as Europe avoids this fuel. At the same time, Russia remains the largest supplier of coal to the country. Europe
Gas supplies from Africa
Algeria and Nigeria are the largest exporters of natural gas on the African continent in 2021. Each of these countries in 2020 supplied abroad from 35 to 40 billion cubic meters of blue fuel (7th and 8th place in the world, respectively).
In 2021, these countries were the only two African gas suppliers to the European Union, accounting for 17% and 4% of EU natural gas imports, respectively.
Other major players in the region are Egypt, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and Angola. While sub-Saharan Africa has gas reserves, they have not been approached by overseas consumers, according to Al Jazeera. In addition, they do not have the investment necessary for the industry to be able to access Europe.
Three pipelines at this time deliver natural gas from Africa to Europe:
- Transmed, providing exports from Algeria to Italy (via Tunisia),
- Medgaz, connecting Algeria with Spain by sea, and
- "Green Stream," connecting Libya with Sicily (more modest in capacity).
Due to diplomatic tensions with Morocco, Algeria in October 2021 closed the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline (GME), which runs through its neighbor's territory. From 2027, the NIGAL gas pipeline is expected to transport natural gas from Nigeria (today it is transported mainly by sea), but construction of this gas pipeline has not yet begun.
For the first time in history, the price of gas in Europe exceeded $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. m
On September 28, 2021, the price of gas in Europe for the first time in history exceeded $1000 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. At the maximum for the day, the cost of October futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands was €85.25 per 1 MVt·ch, or $1,030 per 1000 cubic meters. m. Data from the London ICE exchange indicate that the cost of the October futures was 83.42 euros per megawatt-hour, or $1,022.58 per thousand cubic meters. The increase from the closing level of the previous trading session is about 9%.
According to Forbes, the previous record dates back to March 2018, when gas quotes reached €76 per 1 MVt·ch, or $969 per 1000 cubic meters. m. Interestingly, that maximum was recorded at the end of the heating season, and in 2021 - at the very beginning.
Analysts attribute the rise in gas prices in Europe, continuing since the end of August, to rush demand, low occupancy of underground storage facilities, as well as supply interruptions, including due to an accident at the Gazprom plant in Novy Urengoy.
The head of the contract structuring and pricing department of Gazprom Export, Sergei Komlev, noted that pipeline gas supplies from Russia to Europe in 2021 are at historical highs, Gazprom increased gas production by 18.4% year-on-year.
In addition, gas in Europe began to rise in price amid calm weather, which led to a serious drop in wind generation, as well as due to the approaching heating season amid gas shortages and uncertainty with the launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
According to Yevgeny Vengerovsky, a member of the Russian Bar Association, director for the development of the digital platform for civil legislative initiatives, to the young man Yevgeny Vengerovsky, gas is also becoming more expensive due to EU environmental policy: Europeans have abandoned coal and other fuels that have a negative impact on the environment.
In winter, Europe may not have enough gas to heat even residential buildings, warned Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to the US president on energy security.[2]
2020
Critical dependence on gas imports
Which European countries depend on Russian gas
Decrease in natural gas production by 22.8%, to 54 billion cubic meters
Natural gas production in the EU countries at the end of 2020 amounted to 54 billion cubic meters against 70 billion a year earlier. Thus, there was a decline of 22.8%. Such data are given in the European Commission report on European gas markets.
The leaders in EU gas production are as follows:
- Netherlands - 24 billion cubic meters of gas in 2020 (against 33.7 billion cubic meters in 2019);
- Romania - 9 billion cubic meters (10 billion cubic meters in 2019);
- Germany - 4.9 billion cubic meters (5.7 billion cubic meters in 2019).
In the fourth quarter alone, 13.7 billion cubic meters were produced in the EU - this is 15% less than in the same period in 2019. Most of the gas in the EU was produced by the Netherlands (6.2 billion), Romania, Poland and Germany (within 1.1-2.4 billion cubic meters).
 | Throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2020, as in the previous three quarters, gas production was below 2015-2019 levels, reflecting a trend of declining EU gas production. Over the past seven years, total gas production in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020 was the second lowest quarterly indicator, the European Commission said in a report on European gas markets. |  |
Aleksey Grivach, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Security Fund, believes that the current gas situation in Europe once again reminds of the importance of implementing Russian pipeline projects for the region's energy security. He pointed out that gas production in Europe will continue to fall, and demand will grow due to the fact that the region is abandoning coal. This will lead to the fact that you have to look for new sources of fuel and routes for its delivery.
In the autumn-winter period, gas reserves were selected from underground storage facilities in Europe for 10 years, Gazprom said. According to open data from 2011, the volume of gas lifted for the 2020/21 winter season by March 25, 2021 amounted to 65.6 billion cubic meters. m. The previous maximum was recorded in 2018, when abnormal cold with snowfall covered Europe[3]
2019
Russia is the largest energy supplier in the EU
The second quarter of 2019 was a failure for Gazprom's revenue from gas exports: revenues fell 38% compared to the first quarter. The loss is really colossal: the former $14.1 billion against the current $8.7 billion. Such negative dynamics is associated with a decrease in gas exports to non-CIS countries by 5.9%. But the biggest damage came from a sharp drop in energy costs. Gas prices in the European Union fell to absolute lows over the past 10 years. It will sound unexpected, but the domestic gas monopoly easily overcomes the gigantic decline in revenue.
The reason lies in the uniquely low cost of Russian gas. In Europe, only Gazprom was able to sell gas at such a low price and "not fly into the pipe." In the hope of maintaining market share and waiting for prices to recover, American LNG suppliers increased the supply of liquefied gas to European countries by 1.5 times. But they do this to their detriment: operating losses on the supply of gas from the United States to Europe are $37-48 for every 1000 cubic meters. m. They will not be able to work endlessly in the negative, there are already rumors that the construction of new LNG facilities in the States may be postponed.
In fact, low prices squeeze Gazprom's competitors out of the European market without any effort from the latter. This does not apply to the three main gas suppliers to Europe: Norway, Algeria and Qatar. They also export their gas through pipelines, and firmly hold their positions.
Norway is a major supplier of oil and gas to the EU
2016: Russia's share of EU gas imports - 36%
Notes
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