Factors of development of the telecom industry digitalization market

Market size and demand dynamics

According to feedback from market experts, in 2023 the Russian telecommunications industry showed positive dynamics, the growth of the communication services market amounted to more than 5%, and its volume is estimated from 1.9 to over 2 trillion rubles. This is one of the highest rates in the last decade^[1]The volume of the Russian telecom market at the end of 2023 for the first time will exceed 2 trillion rubles.

The trend for growth in this area will only gain momentum, at least the dynamics of market growth will remain at the level of 4-5% in subsequent years, says Natalya Lebedeva, head of the QA department of IT company SimbirSoft. This will be facilitated by the deployment of 5G, high-speed mobile Internet, 10 gigabit communication channels, the renewal of satellites in geostationary orbits and the commissioning of new, and, of course, import substitution.

In 2025 Russia , the national project "Data Economics and Digital Transformation" will be launched, states which involves the introduction of the latest communication systems, an increase in the volume of data collection and processing, as well as the development of digital platforms. By 2030, the key growth driver will be machine-to-machine interaction (M2M traffic), in connection with the alleged large-scale development Internet of things, unmanned, transport smart cities and artificial intelligence technologies, believes Roman Romanov Deputy General Director for Development of the company. "Satel

In 2023, the volume of the Russian IoT market grew by 15%, based on the number of smart devices connected to networks. In 2024, we can expect an increase of another 8-10% - with the industrial Internet of Things, the use of artificial intelligence and an increase in the volume of data as drivers. By 2030, the IoT market will grow approximately twice as compared to the current one, predicts Ivan Ermakov, commercial director of the Basis development company.

As for the specialized ON for the needs of technical divisions - Telecom Cloud and complementary products - this is a new market for Russia, and its volume is even larger than the market server virtualizations for IT departments. Therefore, Russian developers have yet to participate in major projects.

External factor of information security

A cross-cutting motive, as in many other segments of the IT market of the Russian Federation, in the digitalization of the telecom industry is the information security factor.

According to the Ivan Ryl BSS company's development director, the Bercut dynamics hacker attacks and scale of damage for large businesses are growing annually. Market statistics and resonant incidents force any business, including telecom, to be more attentive to providing information security to the company. Telecom operators aggregate a large amount of personal data in their systems, so they face serious reputational risks in the event of any. leaks

Of course, such trends affect the increased interest of operators in the issue of the security of all IT solutions supplied to them, the expert noted.

Roman Romanov stressed that attackers are constantly looking for new ways to obtain confidential data and cause either financial or reputational damage to companies. Digitalization has led to exponential growth in the amount of data transferred, which creates increased requirements for network bandwidth, performance, fault tolerance and security.

According to Oleg Abankin, Deputy General Director of INTACT, information security is becoming an increasingly important aspect not only against the background of growing cyber threats, but also tightening regulatory requirements. Operators need to protect data and network elements by creating their SoC centers or using an outsourcing model.

Ivan Ermakov called the cornerstone in the telecommunications segment the information security factor. According to the expert, the need to categorize objects CUES and comply with the rules for security cyber security are in the direct focus of telecom operators. However, alternative domestic information security solutions cannot always be found on the market, and in their absence it is difficult to upgrade security systems. Meanwhile, the increased information security requirements for certain equipment and services have not gone anywhere.

Roman Shindin, head of the presale group at Tibbo Systems, believes that in the context of increased requirements for information security, dependence on imported microelectronics components should be considered.

Natalia Lebedeva mentioned that the difficult situation with cyber attacks forces telecom to look for new ways to ensure the safety of its subscribers.

Denis Pereslavtsev, head of the CTI group of complex network solutions and data center networks, said that the key target for operators was to ensure control over network traffic and consumed content, in connection with which the expert highlighted a number of trends in the implementation and development of services and systems.

The introduction of TSPU services (technical means of countering threats) to protect the Russian segment of the Internet from threats of the spread of illegal content, from the leakage of confidential information and from the use of network resources to destabilize the situation within the country.

Implement DPI (Deep packet inspection) services for deep analysis of network packets, which allows you to identify and manage various types of traffic, apply access policies and charge data services.

The development of SORM-3 is a third-generation system that allows you to collect statistics about the user from all information systems of the telecom operator (billing, radius, NAT, DPI), then classify the information and send it for long-term storage.

Implementation of DDoS counteraction systems.

Other external factors

Ivan Ryl noted another factor affecting digitalization in telecom - collaboration between telecom operators and digital partners from other industries.

For example, today through a telecom operator you can buy insurance, movie tickets, subscriptions to online services and any digital products, - said the expert. - Since the principle of operation of products in different industries differs, such collaborations become an additional driver of digitalization of the telecom market, because they change the mechanics of service provision and customer experience.

Vitaly Chesnokov, CEO Qsoft mentioned an increase in data volumes, an increase in client requirements for the quality of services and service, as well as the adaptation and implementation of AI, IoT and ML.

Natalia Lebedeva also pointed to the growth factor of the subscriber network, to a greater extent due to "smart" devices, and to an increase in the capacity of the base that needs to be provided.

Roman Romanov believes that the digitalization of the telecommunications industry is negatively affected by economic turbulence, restraining investment.

Oleg Abankin further pointed out the fact that capital and operating costs (CAPEX and) OPEX are increasing due to the introduction of technologies 5G and IoT, which requires cost optimization through the application of technologies such as virtualization and software-defined networks (). SDN

In addition, according to the expert, import substitution exerts significant pressure: operators must carefully manage risks when switching to domestic solutions in order to minimize failures and ensure compatibility.

Finally, support states through digitalization programs creates opportunities for development, but requires significant investment and adjustments to long-term strategies, he said.

So, at the end of 2023, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a long-term strategy for the development of the industry, the document was developed jointly with manufacturers of equipment, software and software^[2].

Denis Pereslavtsev noted the transition to electronic document management and the signing of documents by the electronic digital signature of the EDS as an influence factor.

And Roman Shindin recalled the shortage of personnel, from which the IT industry as a whole suffers.

Barriers: import substitution stalled on equipment

Import substitution is one of the most serious factors affecting the digitalization of the telecom industry. Experts call the main problems of import substitution in telecom a lack of equipment, insufficiently developed domestic software, and the high cost of complex projects.

Many challenges faced by operators are associated with import substitution, said Ivan Ryl. The supply on the market does not always meet their needs, equipment and technology are still inferior to Western counterparts in functionality.

There are difficulties with replacing specific systems. The most difficult thing is to replace software, which includes not only software, but also hardware complexes. Also, according to the expert, such large components of the IT landscape of operators as the billing system and the network itself, where a huge number of base stations and physical devices are involved, are among the difficult to replace solutions. In Russia, so far few have made significant progress towards replacing the network, he complained. Modern billing systems should be flexible, from the point of view of architecture, use universal mechanics and have customization points that simplify changes in business processes.

Together with Rostelecom"" and other players in the Russian telecom market, Bercut is now working on a project to create import-substituted CBS billing, which can be used not only in telecom, but in other sectors of the economy, - said Ivan Ryl. - With the advent of universal platforms on the market, the implementation of such projects becomes much easier.

Alexander Goltsov, General Director of AMT Group, noted that the situation with import substitution among telecom operators is not very different from other market segments, but has its own specifics.

So, according to the expert, everything related to information systems (OSS/BSS, etc.) is developing relatively acceptably, although not as quickly as we would like. But, for example, in the Russian market of monitoring systems at the moment it is difficult to find full-fledged analogues of Western solutions. The development of such systems takes a lot of time: even in the absence of technological restrictions, their creation can take more than five years.

As for the equipment (hardware solutions) market - here, unfortunately, we have not advanced far. Access level equipment is quite well represented. If we take the levels of aggregation and the core - high-performance equipment and systems - unfortunately, the market still uses foreign solutions, - said Alexander Goltsov.

According to him, mobile operators have managed to advance in creating prototypes and samples of base stations that can be launched into mass production. And experts hope that the launch will take place very soon.

As Vadim Sabashny, General Director of LANIT-Terkom (part of the Lanit group), said, the transition to domestic software in the telecommunications industry is fraught with a number of difficulties and problems. In particular, we are talking about dependence on foreign equipment, most of which, including base stations and fiber-optic solutions, are produced by foreign companies. Replacing such systems with Russian counterparts requires significant costs not only for the development, testing and implementation of equipment, but also for the creation of production facilities.

The complexity and integration of network management systems and billing systems, the need for an integrated approach and significant investments - all this does not add simplicity to the process of switching to domestic software, the expert noted.

Oleg Abankin believes that the problems of import substitution faced by operators largely coincide with the problems of large corporate customers.

The expert noted the heterogeneity of the Russian market: some decisions have already passed a long path of development and are mature, and some began to be created in 2022 or received a significant impetus in 2024. There are classes of systems that, in principle, do not have a domestic analogue.

The most vulnerable segment for import substitution is hardware solutions, - said Oleg Abankin. - There are not many significantly localized hardware products. Many 'Russian' products are simply OEM solutions from foreign manufacturers.

The stronger segment, according to the expert, is information security, because information security solutions of leading Russian manufacturers have been formed for many years.

Ivan Ermakov confirmed: the main difficulty for operators is to find domestic analogues of equipment. In Telecom Cloud and the 5G hardware segment, Western vendors have always had a good level of integration of the infrastructure and application layer. Users also have very high performance and system usage requirements. Russian developers will face these requests.

The commercial director of RTK-Service Dmitry Yakushev also pointed out the problem of replacement in the field of network equipment, where dependence on foreign suppliers remains high - at the level of 80%. A serious test is the maximum extension of the operability of this equipment and technical support in all aspects, and not on "frozen" configurations, but against the background of the development and redesign of operator networks caused by the integration of import-substituting solutions.

Rapid migration to Russian is unlikely - not every class of solutions has full-fledged analogues, the expert said. - In addition, the amount of equipment on the networks is colossal, and the cost of import substitution projects is very high.

According to him, the cost of communication services in the Russian Federation is one of the lowest in the world, so operators cannot afford revolutionary investments. The logical way out seems to be the maximum extension of the service life of the "orphaned" foreign fleet of hardware solutions with a phased replacement with emerging Russian analogues.

In addition, the demand for expertise on equipment is growing, which quickly wears out. At the same time, the main problem is personnel. The country catastrophically lacks not only hands that can fix failed equipment, but also heads that can ensure migration - to develop a design, stage a multi-vendor solution, implement it and technical support in a single window, Dmitry Yakushev noted.

In addition, the departure of manufacturers exposed a serious problem in terms of technical support, namely, the limited available spare parts and accessories.

Of course, both our warehouses and those of our customers have a spare parts supply, but it is finite, and some network elements, according to our statistics, are generally extremely short-lived, the expert said.

A quick transition to import-substituting software in telecom is impossible, Natalya Lebedeva agrees.

The question is not only in the hardware and the absence of complete analogues, but also in how to maintain the built infrastructure in operation, "the specialist emphasized. - Integration is not always possible to perform seamlessly and preserve all the vital "features."

Ekaterina Paripa, head of sales at FERRUM IT Group, said that operators successfully take advantage of the existing opportunity to import equipment into the Russian Federation and receive software updates in various ways (many foreign vendors continue to provide purchased support).

Telecom operators are in no hurry to import substitution, - the specialist emphasized.

According to her, there are several reasons why import substitution is postponed: domestic products have not yet reached the same level of reliability and functionality, and customers do not have enough of their own resources to migrate systems. After all, by and large, almost everything that was purchased in previous years needs to be changed.

Roman Shindin noted two problems faced by telecom operators: a lack of information on substitute vendors and a lack of support for new vendors in domestic monitoring systems.

Operator requirements

According to experts interviewed by TAdviser, today telecom operators must meet certain requirements in terms of digitalization, actively and comprehensively work on all nuances in order to provide digital comfort and retain customers in a modern competitive environment.

First of all, we are talking about compliance with key requirements for ensuring cyber security the protection of personal data, including consent to their processing. Operators must undergo mandatory certification, confirming compliance with policies. information security One of the most authoritative tools in this area is the certification of information security management systems ISO 27001.

In addition, UX/UI design is important: interfaces must be simple and understandable so that users can easily interact with the product. Modern users are accustomed to the fact that managing consumed services is very easy, they expect operators to have the same ease of management as, for example, in mobile applications of banks and other IT products. Therefore, everything related to the service management window must be manageable, understandable and transparent.

Business needs to have quick access to information due to the reliable operation of services. Customers should receive support at every stage, including through quick feedback collection.

In the context of import substitution, operators are laying down opportunities for further modernization in their solutions in order to ensure a level of services in Russia that is comparable to world leaders in telecom. This includes the development of its own hardware fleet, including 5G base stations. This also includes digitalization in the field of managing a huge network. After all, a low level of digitalization here will lead to the inability to provide competitive tariffs for communication services.

Telecom operators continue to introduce new technologies to adapt to current market requirements and improve the quality of customer service.

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