Hard drives (market of Russia)

• Hard drives (world market)
• Hard drive (magnetic drive, winchester, HDD)
• Solid state drives are SSD (the market of Russia)
• Solid state drives are SSD (world market)

2019: The import volume of HDD and SSD to Russia was estimated at 9.1 million pieces

According to to data analytical center GS Group, import volume in Russia different drives HDD SSD of information (i) was 8.7 million pieces in 2018. In comparison with 2017 import grew slightly — by only 4% (2018 by 2017) while in 2017 the gain made 29% (2017 by 2016), reported TAdviser on January 28, 2020 in GS Group. As explained in the company, the specified volume includes disk arrays for DWH, but HDD and SSD in structure notebooks, workstations and other B2B and B2C devices of the markets does not include.

According to forecasts of analysts of GS Group, at the end of 2019 the total amount of import of HDD and SSD will be 9.1 million pieces (a gain of 4% — 2019 by 2018). Market turnover in 2018 exceeded 81 billion rubles from which 40% are the share of disk arrays of DWH. 20% and 40% of turnover of the market are the share of piece SSD and HDD, part of them are imported for the subsequent complete set of DPC and DWH.

2018 is special year for disk storage modules for several reasons. First, the general falling of the market of HDD began: if in 2017 the general gain of deliveries of HDD to Russia made 26% — to 6.4 million pieces, then in 2018 deliveries dropped by 12% — up to 5.7 million pieces. In the first half of the year 2019 the trend amplified — deliveries decreased by 21% (1 plg 2019 to 1 plg 2018). According to forecasts of GS Group, at the end of 2019, the import volume of HDD to Russia will decrease by 23% — up to 4.4 million pieces.

Secondly, decrease in volumes touched leaders of a segment of HDD — WDC and Seagate (general share of 65%) who together with Toshiba and HGST and made the market of HDD. Both companies hardly saved indicators of 2017 (the import volume in 2018 is equal to the level of 2017). But in the first half of the year 2019 of delivery of HDD of both brands already began to fall (for 20% and 13%: 1 plg 2019 to 1 plg 2018) and, according to forecasts, at the end of year will decrease by 18% (2019 by 2018).

At last, in 2018 domination of HDD over SSD comes to an end. If in 2018 the share of HDD in the general import of disk storage modules made 65%, and a share of SSD according to 35%, then in the first half of the year 2019 the share of SSD exceeded 52% and will remain at this level at the end of 2019. The key reason is a fast decrease in average cost of SSD disks and growth of their average capacity, as a result average cost for 1 Tb (terabyte) approaches the HDD level. Such course of events was predicted long ago as the technology of flash-memory has a possibility of gradual reduction in cost while at HDD such opportunity is structurally limited. On the other hand, the market of HDD is concentrated in hands of three producers (WDC, Seagate and Toshiba) while other players continue to enter the market of SSD, and as a result of competition gain the prices fall even quicker on all range.

Production of HDD and SSD which are delivered to Russia, is concentrated in Southeast Asia. In the countries of other regions less than 0.4%, first of all are manufactured in Poland.

The main, but not the only producer where gather both HDD, and SSD drives, is China. HDD in China generally makes Toshiba Corporation for Russia (1 million pieces in 2018) and Seagate Technology (760 thousand pieces). SSD in China bring together for Russia Samsung Electronics (524 thousand pieces are sent to Russia in 2018), Intel Corporation (129 thousand pieces), Western Digital (84 thousand pieces, from which p an avalanche under the SanDisk brand) and Smartbuy (46 thousand pieces). In total 34% of deliveries of disk storage modules for Russia fall to the share of China.

Thailand took the second place on deliveries to Russia of disk storage modules from shares of 29%, however in 2019 these volumes will decrease because of stagnation of the market of HDD, and the share of Thailand will fall up to 20%.

The main volume of SSD drives is made for Russia on Taiwan: more than 1.5 million pieces in 2018. The most part is collected for the American Kingston Technology Corporation (590 thousand pieces) and also for brands of ADATA, Silicon Power, Transcend, Smartbuy, Apacer, etc. The share of Taiwan in deliveries of disk storage modules to Russia makes 19% (the third place), however in connection with increase in demand for SSD drives it will increase to 26% at the end of 2019 and will be equal to Thailand.

Assembly of HDD for Western Digital Corporation is located as well in Malaysia from where to Russia more than 600 thousand HDD in 2018 were delivered. On Philippines HDD under the name of Toshiba are made: to Russia about 269 thousand pieces are delivered. Thus, Malaysia takes in deliveries of disk storage modules the 4th place (a share of 13%), Philippines — the 5th place (3.4%), at the end of 2019 these shares will be even lower.

Among the other countries it is possible to select Poland where Wilk Elektronik SA assembles SSD drives under the Goodram brand — 13 thousand pieces in 2018 and, according to our forecasts, more than 20 thousand pieces in 2019.

Despite fast development of Flash-memory and its reduction in cost, hard drives (HDD) will still be in demand. In addition to still lower price of 1 Tb and just inertness of the market, it is promoted also by function of "cold" data storage in DWH and DPCs. And in Russia she is especially supported thanks to separate laws which oblige to store telecom operators Internet traffic, including video content — the heaviest for the beginning of 2020 the type of information.

To resist to the fast-growing market of SSD, market leaders of HDD go the way increases in capacity of a separate disk, developing technologies of consolidation of record, for example, of HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) and MAMR (Microwave-Assisted Magnetic Recording). In forecasts of capacity of a disk digits up to 50 Tb sound. However, perhaps, it is just a deadlock way, on - to a skolk the cost of such disk sharply increases, and the risk of single-step data loss — grows even more. The alternative way is a combination of HDD with SSD in storage systems and data processings (this is not about hybrid disks) where HDD undertakes "cold" storage, and SSD — is "hotter". But at the accelerated development of SSD it will reduce the market of HDD even quicker.

The market of hard drives is well created and consolidated, both in the world, and for Russia. In 2017 the Russian market was divided between three brands approximately in equal to - the Pole (on 28 — 30%, 1.8 — 1.9 million pieces): WD (Western Digital), Seagate and Toshiba which respectively belong to the Japanese Toshiba Corporation and the American Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Seagate Technology. Prb it large distributors of HDD in Russia kept all three brands in the portfolios.

According to forecasts of GS Group, the supply rate of HDD WDC to Russia in 2019 will be 1.5 million pieces (decrease by 19%, 2019 by 2018), and the share will remain flush with Seagate — 35%.

At the end of 2019 import of Seagate of HDD to Russia will also drop up to 1.5 million pieces (by 17%, 2019 by 2018).

In 2019 import of HDD Toshiba to Russia will decrease even stronger and will make less than 1 million pieces (decrease by 25%, 2019 by 2018), i.e. it is lower than the level of 2016, but because of the general falling of the market of HDD the share of Toshiba on it will remain at the level of 23%.

In 2018 under the HGST brand less than 270 thousand pieces are imported into Russia, and in 2019 import the last remaining balance — no more than 40 thousand pieces.

The total share of other brands remains at the level of 7%, the largest of them: Transcend — 1.5%, HP (Hewlett-Packard) and ADATA — on 1%

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The market of SSD still rather young, and arrangement on it differs from the market of HDD radically. Unlike strongly consolidated market of HDD where three leaders together occupy 92%, in the Russian market of SSD the total share of the first three does not exceed 55%, and the share of the top ten is a little higher than 80%. In process of development of the SSD direction different producers will shoot ahead, others — to withdraw, also arrangement will be changed by process of merges and absorption which already began. It should be noted that in Russia production of SSD is also developed, however so far its share does not exceed 0.01% of the domestic market.

In spite of the fact that on Taiwan more than a half of SSD is made, Taiwan brands possess considerably smaller volume: so, if to watch deliveries of SSD for Russia, then more than a half of volume in them occupy the American companies, and with aggressive entry into the market of WDC — more than 60%. Directly Taiwanese companies occupy no more than 20%, as well as the Korean Samsung.

First place by the number of the SSD drives delivered to Russia from shares of 20% is won by Kingston (the American Kingston Technology Corporation) — 620 thousand pieces in 2018 from which 95% are produced on Taiwan, the rest — in China. After decrease in import by 19% in 2017 (this moment is well visible on the diagram), in 2018 deliveries grew and, according to our forecasts, at the end of 2019 will reach the level of 920 thousand pieces, as a result of Kingston will save the first place from market shares on SSD of 19%.

The second place is taken by Samsung from shares of 19% which imported to Russia in 2018 588 thousand pieces of SSD drives, the main part of these drives is manufactured in China (89%), the others in South Korea. At the same time the production share in native South Korea grows: from 7% in 2017 up to 17% in 2019. According to forecasts of GS Group, at the end of 2019 Samsung will even more increase deliveries to Russia, having exceeded the volume of 800 thousand pieces at the end of year (17% of the market of SSD). Samsung delivers the most expensive SSD among top three — 2-3 times more expensively than Kingston and Western Digital is twice more expensive.

The American WDC (Western Digital Corporation) sets a fine example to business diversification: having become the market leader of HDD, the company actively works also at the market of SSD. If in 2016 WDC was not included even into ten the largest producers SSD for Russia, then in 2018 it became the third with a capacity of 588 thousand pieces, and in 2019 will reach one level with Samsung — up to 800 thousand pieces of SSD drives.

Top three well shows how all market of SSD grows. In 2018 total deliveries of SSD of three leading brands to Russia exceeded the volume of all market of SSD in Russia for 2016, at the same time market consolidation level during this time only decreased (the Herfindalya index — Hirschman on top-15 in 2016 made 1459, and in 2018 — 1154). And in 2019 total deliveries of the first five brands will exceed the volume of all Russian market of SSD of 2018.

In 2019 considerable receipt of Intel to Russia — more than 340 thousand pieces is expected.

Deliveries of Silicon Power Computer & Communications (SP) to Russia will not exceed 140 thousand pieces, and thus SP will appear at the end of the top ten.

The ADATA Technology company increases deliveries of SSD to Russia growth rates of all Russian market: in 2019 (up to 275 thousand pieces).

SmartBuy will deliver in 2019, according to forecasts, 150 thousand pieces.

It is predicted that at the end of 2019 Transcend will deliver no more than 85 thousand pieces of SSD to Russia.

At the end of 2019 Micron will deliver to Russia 340 — 350 thousand pieces of SSD under the Crucial brand, and thus will separate with Intel the fourth place in the Russian market.

Among other brands it is selected Taiwan Apacer (Apacer Technology) which import will reach 160 thousand pieces in 2019.

In 2019, according to forecasts, import of SSD Patriot to Russia can exceed 130 thousand pieces.

Wilk Elektronik which sells SSD under own Goodram brand in 2019 can deliver about 90 thousand pieces from which 25% are collected in Poland to Russia.

The total amount of nominal memory of HDD and SSD-of the drives deliverable at Russia, annually grows. 2018 it was 11.8 million Tb. In 2019, by estimates, the total amount of memory of HDD and SSD will reach 12.4 million Tb. And, if the total volume of HDD will slightly decrease, it will be filled by growth of SSD of the market. Separately in this volume disk arrays of DWH which include all three types are considered: on the basis of HDD, on the basis of SSD drives (All-Flash) and mixed.

The main amount of memory of drives is still the share of hard drives — more than 88%. The reason is in the different nominal volume of one disk. The most popular amount of memory in the market of HDD — 1 Tb and 500 GB, according to 40% and 32% of the market of HDD (by quantity of disks without disk arrays of DWH). Further the disks HDD 2 Tí and 4 Tb, according to 11% and 5% of the market of HDD follow. At the same time in the market of SSD use disks of 120/128 MB (48% of the market of SSD) and 240/250/256 MB (32% of the market of SSD) more often.

The average size of a disk grows every year. At the same time growth rates at HDD are higher, than at SSD that is quite explainable: thus HDD producers try to fight against SSD. The average HDD size increased from 1.3 Tb in 2016 to 2.2 Tb in 2019, in the same time average time - died SSD grew from 0.21 Tb in 2016 to 0.28 Tb in 2019.

Nevertheless, thanks to growth of a share of SSD by quantity, they catch up with HDD on total amount of memory. If in 2016 — 2017 years the total volume of nominal memory of HDD was in 21 times more of SSD, then in 2018 HDD by only 14 times exceed SSD on total amount of memory, and in 2019, according to our forecasts — only by 7 times.

The Segment of drives of a pocket format conditionally integrates two types of products: USB Flash-drives and memory cards. The import volume of pocket drives grows, but rates of this growth fall: if in 2017 the gain made 24%, then in 2018 already only 13%. According to forecasts of GS Group, delivery of USB Flash and memory cards at the end of 2019 will increase by only 5 — 6%. Rates will fall further, as a result in 2020 import volume can lower than level 2018 — will decrease 2019. First of all USB Flash volumes will be reduced. The key reason of decrease in demand for USB sticks is a development of infrastructure the Internet (networks of broadband access, including Wi-fi networks and the mobile Internet from cellular operators).