Russia's GDP

The main articles are:

• Russian economy
• GDP - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• GRP of the regions of Russia

GDP dynamics

2026: GDP growth forecasts

In June 2024, the World Bank improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 to 1.1%.

In October 2023, the Central Bank of Russia predicted Russia's GDP growth in 2026 by 1.5-2.5%.

According to the forecast Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, made in April 2023 GDP Russia , in 2026 it will increase by 2.8%.

2025

3% growth in January

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in January 2025, Russia's GDP exceeded last year's level by + 3.0% y/y.

GDP growth forecasts

The estimate of Russia's GDP growth in 2025 from the World Bank in June 2024 was increased from 0.9% to 1.4%. Earlier in January World Bank 2024, it predicted growth GDP Russia in 2025 - at 0.9%, which is 0.1% higher than the bank's forecast from April 2023.

In October 2023, the Central Bank of Russia predicted Russia's GDP growth in 2025 by 1.0-2.0%.

In 2025, Russia's GDP will grow by 2.6%, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of April 2023.

2024

Economic growth by 4.1% to 200.04 trillion rubles

In February 2025, Rosstat published an estimate of the GDP of the Russian Federation for 2024. According to the department's materials, the Russian economy in 2024 grew by 4.1% and reached 200.04 trillion rubles in nominal terms. This result significantly exceeded all forecasts made by Russian and foreign organizations (see below).

From the documents of Rosstat it follows that the main drivers of the economy were the following industries:

• information and communication - an increase of 11.9% (in particular, the software development market grew by 18%);
• hotels and restaurants - an increase of 9.6% (the main impact was the increased demand in the catering market, the turnover of which increased by 9%);
• wholesale and retail trade - an increase of 6.9% (an increase in wholesale trade turnover by 6.8% and retail trade turnover by 7.2% is associated with an increase in demand for consumer goods, machinery and equipment);
• manufacturing - an increase of 7.6% (an increase due to an increase in the production of finished metal products by 35.3%, other vehicles and equipment by 29.6%, computers, electronic and optical products by 28.8% and food products by 3.5%).

The ICT industry turned out to be the main driver of growth in the Russian economy

In addition, the positive dynamics of GDP in 2024 was influenced by the following industries:

• finance and insurance - an increase of 16.5%;
• culture and sports - an increase of 8.4%;
• providing electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning - an increase of 1.9%;
• transportation and storage - an increase of 1.8%;
• construction - an increase of 1.7%.

A decrease in value added in 2024 was observed in the field of agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing - by 3.4%, mining - by 0.9%, real estate operations - 1.3%. The share of spending on final consumption in the structure of GDP in 2024 amounted to 68.8% (68.4% in 2023), including the share of household spending - 49.7% (47.6%), public administration spending - 18.6% (18.3%).^[1]

The contribution of the IT industry to Russia's GDP reached 4 trillion rubles (2.2%)

The contribution of the domestic IT sector to Russian GDP exceeded 2.2% in 2024, an increase of 1.7 times in five years. This was announced on January 31, 2025 by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin. Read more here.

GDP growth of 4.5% in December

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in December 2024, GDP growth amounted to + 4.5% YoY after + 3.6% YoY a month earlier. With the exception of the seasonal factor, growth by + 0.9% m/m SA after + 0.0% m/m SA in November.

The strong momentum in December is mainly due to industry, namely, processing in the military-industrial complex segment and construction, which accelerated to 7.5% YoY in December compared to the near-zero pace from July to November 2024.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called the manufacturing industry the main driver of the rise in the Russian economy, which, according to the Prime Minister, grew by 8% in 2024 - "above the initially predicted trajectory."

The provision for growth was the strongest budget impulse in the history of Russia.

4.1% growth over 10 months

According to the Ministry of Economics, GDP growth in October 2024 amounted to 3.2% YoY, for 10 months + 4.1% YoY.

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation estimates GDP growth at 3.6% YoY in November 2024.

Growth of 4.2% in eight months

According to the Ministry of Economics, in August 2024, growth GDP Russia was 2.4% YoY after an increase of 3.5% YoY a month earlier.

For 8 months of 2024, GDP growth amounted to 4.2% YoY and the result is fully due to the strong first half of 2024.

Growth in May by 4.5%

The Ministry of Economics of the Russian Federation estimates the growth GDP Russia in May 2024 at + 4.5% YoY, and since the beginning of the year the growth is about 5% YoY, which is an extremely strong result, because, unlike 2022, the comparison base is relatively high.

Growth in April by 4.4% or 5.1% in 4 months

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economics, GDP growth in April 2024 amounted to 4.4% YoY after 4.2% YoY in March, and according to the results of January-April 24, an increase of 5.1% YoY.

The Russian economy continues to grow steadily, returning to the upward trend of 2017-2019, fully compensating for the failure of the crises of 2020 and 2022.

Russia remains in 4th place in the world in terms of PPP GDP

On April 1, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to ensure the entry of the Russian Federation into the four largest economies in the world by 2030 in terms of GDP, calculated at purchasing power parity. At the same time, according to the World Bank, Russia ranked fourth in the global ranking of countries, replacing Japan and Germany, even at the end of 2021 (for more details, see below). Similar data on the placement of Russia in 4th place in October 2024 were presented by the IMF.

5.4% growth in Q1

GDP growth in Russia in the first quarter accelerated to 5.4% - a preliminary estimate of Rosstat.

The Ministry of Economics estimates Russia's GDP growth by 4.2% YoY in March and + 4% compared to the level in two years, and according to the results of 1Q24, GDP growth amounted to 5.4% YoY.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia estimated the country's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 at 4.6%.

Acceleration of GDP growth to 7.7% in February

Growth GDP Russia in February 2024 accelerated to 7.7% in annual terms, from 4.6% in January - a review. Ministry of Economic Development

Excluding the seasonal factor, the GDP growth rate in February was 0.2%. By the level of the same month in 2022, GDP increased by 4.7%.

4.6% growth in January

The GDP of the Russian Federation in January 2024 grew by 4.6% in annual terms after 4.4% in December 2023, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation reported on February 28, 2024.

The Russian economy has overcome the crisis - in January, Russia's GDP is 1.9% higher than January 2022 (the last pre-conflict month).

GDP growth forecasts

In October 2024, the IMF raised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth by 0.4% to 3.6%.

In June 2024, the World Bank significantly raised its forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in 2024 - from 1.3% to 2.9%. Earlier in January World Bank 2024, he already improved the forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2024 to + 1.3%. Even earlier, in April 2023, the bank worsened its growth forecast GDP Russia in 2024 from 1.6% to 1.2%.

At the end of April 2024, the Central Bank of Russia revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 2.5-3.5%. Earlier in October 2023, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2024 in the range of 0.5-1.5%.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of April 2024 in 2024, Russian GDP will grow by 2.8%. Earlier in February, growth of 2.3% was predicted, and a year earlier, in April 2023, the ministry expected growth of 2% in 2024.

In January 2024, the IMF sharply improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth for 2024 to + 2.6%.

Earlier, in October 2023, the IMF predicted Russia's GDP growth in 2024 at 1.1%.

In November 2023, the European Commission improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2024 to 1.6%. Earlier in May 2023, the European Commission expected growth of 1.3%.

The IMF at the end of January 2023 expects an acceleration in the growth of the Russian economy in 2024 to 2.1%.

2023

The World Bank has transferred Russia to the category of high-income countries

In June 2024, the World Bank (WB) transferred Russia to the category of high-income countries. Earlier, the Russian Federation was part of this league of countries in 2012-2014.

For each resident of Russia accounts for $14,250 of gross income. The bank classifies those states in which this indicator is fixed at at least $13,845 as high-income countries.

Economic activity in Russia in 2023 was affected by a significant increase in military activity, as well as a rise in trade (+ 6.8%), the financial sector (+ 8.7%) and construction (+ 6.6%). These factors led to an increase in both real (3.6%) and nominal (10.9 %) GDP, and Russia's gross national income per capita increased by 11.2%.

GDP growth by 3.6% at the end of the year, by 10.4% over 10 years and by 303% over 20 years

Growth GDP Russia in 2023 was 3.6% - the first estimate Rosstat of February 7, 2024.

The accumulated growth of Russia's GDP from 2019 to 2023 inclusive amounted to 4.3%. Over 10 years, the Russian economy has grown by 10.4%. Given the circumstances of relentless pressure on the country, the result is outstanding.

In the IV quarter of 2023, GDP growth was 5.1%, and in December - 4.6%.

GDP growth (at current prices) for the period 2003-2023:

China: 966%

India: 503%

Indonesia: 455%

Saudi Arabia: 395%

Russia: 303%

Brazil: 281%

Turkey: 265%

Canada: 136%

US: 135%

Germany: 77%

France: 65%

Britain: 61%

Italy: 38%

Japan: -6%

The share of imports in Russia's GDP decreased to 19.1%

At the end of 2023, the share of imports in Russia's GDP amounted to 19.1%. For comparison, in 2021, before the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, this figure was at around 20.6%. Such data are given in the materials published on August 10, 2024. Read more here

The share of exports of goods and services in the structure of Russia's GDP dropped to a record low of 23.3%

At the end of 2023, the share of exports of goods and services in the structure of the Russian economy turned out to be a record low since the mid-1990s - 23.3%. This is stated in the materials Rosstat that were released in early April 2024. More. here

Putin: Russia became the first largest GDP economy in Europe

Russia became the first largest GDP economy. Europe This was announced on January 11, 2024 by the President of the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin

It seems that we are strangled from all sides, crushed, and in terms of the volume of the economy as a whole, the first in Europe. We overtook Germany and took fifth place in the world:, China,, USA, India Japan Russia. In Europe, number one, "Putin said at a meeting in Khabarovsk with businessmen of the Far Eastern Federal District.

According to him, Russia has overtaken the whole of Europe in terms of purchasing power parity, but "per capita - we still need to try," "there is something to work on."

The head of state noted that in 2022 the fall in GDP per capita was less than the projected level of 2.1% and amounted to 1.2%. To the question of the chairman of "Business Russia" Alexei Repik about the possibility of exceeding the 4% indicator at the end of 2023, Vladimir Putin answered in the affirmative.

Speaking later to activists in Tula, the capital of the Russian arms industry, Vladimir Putin said that the country's economy defeated Western sanctions imposed after the start of a special operation in Ukraine.

"They predicted decline, failure, collapse - that we would stumble, give up or fall apart. So I want to show them a well-known gesture, but I will not do this, I will give a lot here, "Putin said to applause. 'They're not going to make it! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs. "

At the end of 2023, Putin announced that GDP in Russia by the end of 2023 would grow by 3.5%. According to the president, GDP growth will also be in other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

At the World Bank (WB), the report published in January 2024 reflected expectations of Russia's GDP growth in 2023 to 2.6%, although in July 2022 the organization predicted this figure at 0.2%, and in October - 1.6%. At the same time, at the end of 2023, the European Union expects GDP growth by 0.4%.

WB analysts concluded that the recovery of the Russian economy "was facilitated by significant financial support, including additional military spending." However, the World Bank expects a slowdown in its growth in 2024 to 1.3%, in 2025 - to 0.9% due to limited production capacity, including in conditions of lack of personnel.^[2]

Seventh in the world in GDP by PPP

Real SST 1.6 with low import consumption and 2.6 with high

Prices for basic domestic goods in Russia of low and medium redistribution (food, the simplest household chemicals, basic building materials such as concrete, brick, reinforcement and timber) are two or more times cheaper than the United States. Yes, something is 1.5 times cheaper, or something 2.5-5 times cheaper, but on average close to two, where for products 1.6-2. This is due to low intermediate costs and low wages, Spydell Finance wrote.

However, a significant part of goods in Russia is import or "screwdriver assembly," i.e. products strongly tied to imported components and technologies. Obviously, imports cannot cost less than in countries of development and/or production of products due to customs duties, various fees, type of utilization, more complex and expensive chain of intermediaries due to sanctions, VAT, markup of dealers, distributors and retail chains.

Imports are more expensive than in the United States by 20-120%, where the largest gap in cars, but on average it is rather fair to talk about 40% integrally across imports, taking into account sanctions, i.e. purchasing power parity (PPP) with a coefficient of 0.7.

Imports are concentrated mainly in knowledge-intensive products in durable goods (TDP). Accordingly, in order to have comparable purchasing power per 1000 dollars spent in the USA, it is necessary in Russia to have over $1,400 (with PPP 0.7 for TDP).

Usually, the higher the "consumption standard," the higher the share of TDP and knowledge-intensive products, therefore, for the conditional middle class in Russia, the total PPP for all goods (taking into account food and bricks) can strive for one if the share of domestic products is about 30% in the cost structure. $1 in Russia is equal to $1 in the United States.

The services are very different. Again, it all depends on the cost structure, but it is fair to talk about a difference in price about three times in favor of Russia, i.e. the PPP coefficient is 3-3.5. If the costs are shifted to education and services, then the STP is closer to 4-5.

Accordingly, if in the structure of expenses in Russia, where goods account for 75% of costs (PPP about 1), and services 25% (PPP about 3), then the total PPP for consumer demand will be 1.5-1.7. If the share of imports is low, then SST in the range of 2.5-2.7.

5% growth in October

Minek estimates GDP growth in October 2023 by 5% YoY and plus 1.8% by October 2021, and in the first 10 months of 2023 growth of about 3.2% YoY.

GDP in October is about 0.5% above its high in December 2021 (SA).

GDP growth of 5.5% in Q3 is a record in more than 10 years

The annual growth of the Russian economy in the third quarter of 2023 accelerated to 5.5% from 4.9% in the previous quarter, the Federal Statistics Service said. The result, which became the fastest in more than a decade, except for the jump in the period of Russia's exit from restrictions during Covid-19, exceeded the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

After two quarters of growth, the Russian economy is above the level observed before the start of a military special operation in Ukraine, which fully compensated for the blow from US sanctions and their satellites.

Russia's GDP reached a pre-crisis maximum as of the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Rosstat estimates, excluding the seasonal factor.

After specifying the data and seasonal coefficients, the pre-crisis maximum of GDP was 1q22, and by 3q23 the excess by a symbolic 0.1%.

To compensate for the failure of 2Q22, it took exactly five quarters - formally, the crisis is over.

Russia's GDP for the nine months of 2023 grew by 2.8%, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on October 31. "The period of adaptation to external challenges has basically passed, and at the end of this year we expect the growth of the Russian economy." According to Mishustin, in September, the GDP indicator was twice as high - more than 5% in annual terms.

The rise demonstrates the senselessness of the sanctions of Western countries, which, according to US President Joe Biden, were supposed to cut the Russian economy in half and turn the ruble into a "ruby." There is a possibility that this will happen faster with the US economy and the dollar.

GDP growth per 4.9% in Q2

The GDP of the Russian Federation in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 4.9% compared to the second quarter of 2022 after a decrease in 1.8% in the first quarter, according to Rosstat. The data turned out to be slightly better than the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development (4.6%) and the estimates of the Central Bank (4.8%).

For the first half of the year, GDP growth, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 1.4% y/y and plus 0.5% by 1P 2021, and compared to 1P 2019, GDP growth by 3.1% in accordance with Rosstat information, the Ministry of [1] Economic Development and Spydell Finance's own calculations.

The output index of goods and services for basic economic activities increased by 7.7% YoY in Q2 2023 (in April, an increase of 5.5%, in May - 8.7%, and in June - 8.9%).

For the first half of the year, the output index of goods and services increased by 3.3% YoY, compared to 1P, 2021 growth by 3.4%, and by 1P 2019 growth by 7.9%.

The output index of goods and services is a proxy to GDP, trends are similar, the correlation is very high, because the index includes system-forming industries with a high weight in GDP, but relative dynamics may differ for natural methodological reasons.

With the elimination of the seasonal factor, the output index of goods and services reached an all-time high in January 2022, and GDP is not yet.

Russia's GDP growth in Q2 2023 with the elimination of the seasonal factor amounted to 1.6% QoQ (0.15% in April, 1.4% in May and about zero in June). Excluding the compensatory growth in Q3 2020 after the opening of the economy by 7.2% QoQ, comparable growth over the past 12 years was only three times - Q2 2021 (1.7% QoQ), Q1 2018 (1.3%), Q1 2012 (1.6%).

The Russian economy accelerated significantly in Q2 2023, but the whole effect was in May, because in June there was about zero dynamics.

Over the past 12 months, the recovery momentum of GDP is 3.5%. Only 1% of growth remained to its maximum in Q1 2022.

Up 0.6% over 5 months

The growth of the Russian economy in May 2023 accelerated to 5.4% in annual terms. In January-May, GDP also showed growth - by 0.6%.

Decrease in Q1 by 1.9%

The Russian economy in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 1.9% compared to the same period in 2022, Rosstat reported on May 18, 2023.

So far, Rosstat's estimate seems too optimistic, Spydell Finance wrote, because only agriculture (+ 2.9% YoY) and construction (+.8% YoY) showed significant growth in Q1 2023. Freight turnover minus 2.1%, wholesale trade minus 10.8%, industrial production minus 0.9%, where production is minus 3.3% YoY, and processing plus 1.1% YoY, retail trade minus 7.3%, and services to the population plus 3.9%, but services account for about a quarter of consumer demand.

The Ministry of Economics at the beginning of May 2023 estimated the decline in Russia's GDP in March at minus 1.1% YoY compared to a drop of 2.9% in February, and for Q1 2023 - minus 2.2%.

The decline in Russia's GDP in January slowed to 3.2% from 4.2% in December

"In January 2023, the economy continued to recover. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, with the exception of the seasonal factor in January, GDP grew by 0.2% m/m. In annual terms, GDP decline slowed to 3.2% YoY after falling 4.2% YoY in December 2022. "

Forecasts of GDP dynamics

The forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2023 was increased to 2.6% from 1.6% expected in October.

The European Commission in November 2023 sharply improved the forecast for the dynamics of GDP of the Russian Federation in 2023 and expects growth at the level of 2%. Earlier in May 2023, the European Commission already improved its strange forecast for the dynamics of Russia's GDP for 2023  from -3.2% to -0.9%. The figures of the "forecasts" of this organization speak for themselves.

At the end of October 2023, the Central Bank of Russia raised its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2023 to 2.2-2.7% from 1.5-2.5%.

The IMF revised its deliberately underestimated forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2023. According to the fund's forecast for early October, Russia's GDP will increase by 2.2%, which is 0.7% higher than the previous forecast.

Russian politicians believe that the country's economy has adapted to the costs of the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions of the United States and its satellites and will continue to grow in the next few years. Forecasts of the Ministry of Economy show growth at the dock level. Russia benefits from redirecting trade and increasing military production.

The IMF in July 2023 improved its forecast for Russia's GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points and now expects the economy to grow by 1.5% in 2023 after, in its words, "significant fiscal stimulus" in the first half of the year.

Bloomberg once again made a strong mistake in the forecast of Russia's GDP growth. If in October 2022 the company's polls predicted a fall in GDP by 3.8%, then in early July 2023 the estimate was changed to + 0.5% growth, which is higher than in Britain and Germany.

At the end of April 2023, the Central Bank of Russia improved its forecast for GDP dynamics for 2023, and growth is expected to range from 0.5-2%.

At the end of April 2023, the IMF again improved its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2023 to 0.7%. Earlier at the end of January 2023, the fund already changed its forecast for the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2023 from a drop of 2.3% to an increase of 0.3%.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation from April 2023, Russia's real GDP in 2023 will grow by 1.2%.

In April 2023 World Bank , the forecast for dynamics GDP Russia in the current year was sharply improved, it is expected that this figure will decrease by only 0.2%, and not by 3.3%. The World Bank in January 2023 was already improving its forecast for Russia's GDP and expected it to contract by 3.3%, and not by 3.6%, as it predicted in October 2022. The bank's forecasts are traditionally deliberately negative towards Russia and far from the truth.

"Large countries that control critical resources, pursue competent economic policies and have powerful allies will not crumble in the face of even very harsh sanctions. Russia has all four qualities. Russia has all this, "Bloomberg Economics wrote in February 2023.

In February 2023, the EBRD predicts a 3% fall in Russia's GDP in 2023.

2022

Russia's GDP has grown almost 59 times since the 1998 default to 153.4 trillion rubles

In 1998, when the government RUSSIAN FEDERATION declared a technical default in the country, the nominal gross domestic product Russia amounted to 2.6 trillion, and in rubles 2022 the figure rose to 153.4 trillion rubles. Thus, during GDP this time, it grew 59 times. GDP per capita during this period increased from 17.8 thousand rubles to a record 1.05 million rubles. At ruble the same time, the Russian rate for the same period of time fell sharply - 15 times. Such data "RIA Novosti" led on August 17, 2023.

Vladimir Korovkin, a professor of business practice at the Skolkovo School of Management, in a conversation with the agency in August 2023, said that at present in Russia a default of a similar scale is impossible, since the volume of state borrowing is small and government securities portfolios do not play a significant role in bank assets. Meanwhile, in 1998, Russia's public debt to GDP was 138.5%, and the country was one of the three world anti-leaders in this indicator. In the same year, the same indicator is only about 16.3%. Only about a dozen countries of the world were able to achieve such figures. The level of external debt of the entire economy to GDP fell to a historic low of 15.1%. In 1998, it was 69.6% according to the publication.

According to experts, against the background of a sharp drop in GDP, a collapse in the ruble exchange rate and galloping inflation, the unemployment rate in 1998 soared to the maximum 13.2% in modern history. After 25 years, Russia faces the opposite situation: the unemployment rate from November 2022 every month updates historical lows. In December 2022, the indicator was at the level of 3.7%, and in June 2023 it reached 3.1%.^[3]

GDP reduction by 2.1% at the end of the year against the background of the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine

The Russian economy in 2022 contracted by 2.1%, better than the forecasts of the Central Bank (-2.5%) and the Ministry of Economic Development (-2.9%), Rosstat said in February 2023.

The Russian economy turned out to be more resistant to sanctions by the United States and its satellites than many experts initially expected, according to an IMF report published in April 2023.

After a sharp drop in the second quarter of 2022, the economy seriously recovered in the third and fourth quarters, reducing the decline in production in the 2022 year to 2.1%. " "Significant improvement in trade and sustained volumes of oil exports have led to record oil and gas profits and supported the economy in 2022. The ability of Russia to redirect raw materials exports from countries that have imposed restrictions to countries that have not done so is confirmed independently by obtained and unofficial data. "

GDP estimate - $2.3 trillion. Eighth in the world

Russia returned to the top 10 largest economies in the world for the first time since 2014, according to data from the World Bank.

The Russian Federation in 2021 was in 11th place in the ranking of countries in terms of GDP. In 2022, it moved 3 lines up to 8th place. Russia produced goods and services worth $2.3 trillion.

in

The largest economy in the world is still the United States with a nominal GDP of $25.46 trillion. The second place was taken by China ($17.94 trillion), the third - Japan ($4.17 trillion).

Russia became the leader of GDP in PPP in Europe and entered the top 5 in the world

In August 2023, the World Bank updated its PPP GDP estimates for the world at the end of 2022. According to WB estimates, Russia became one of the five largest economies in the world and became the first economy in Europe, overtaking Germany.

Russia's share of global PPP GDP fell to 2.8% - the lowest since 1998

Russia's share in world GDP at purchasing power parity dropped to 2.87% - this is at least since 1998. In 1990, the RSFSR had a share of 5.1%. In 2000, ascent began with 3%, in 2008 - recovered to 3.7%, before the return of Crimea to the Russian Federation it was 3.5%, and before the start of a special operation in Ukraine - about 3-3.1%.

2.8% is, of course, very little. The trend shows that in relative dimension to the world since 1998 Russia has not increased its economic influence, but here, what focus to look at?

The share of the United States and its allies also continues to decline rapidly amid the growth of China, India and Indonesia. If we take the largest developing countries, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa record their 30 summer lows. Saudi Arabia and Iran are in the stabilization phase, but at 30-year lows. See World Economy for details.

Over 10 years, the share of the telecom industry in Russian GDP has halved

The share of the telecommunications industry in the domestic gross product (GDP) of Russia in 2022 decreased to 0.8% from 1.6% in 2012. Thus, we are talking about a twofold reduction in the indicator for 10 years. This follows from the draft government decree on amendments to the state program "Information Society" developed by the Ministry of Digital Ministry of Digital Development. The document was published in August 2023. Read more here.

Agriculture's share of GDP is less than 5%

Main article: Agriculture in Russia

Decline in GDP in the third quarter by 4% according to the Central Bank

In the third quarter of 2022, the Russian economy contracted by 4%. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects a decline in the region of 7.1% in the fourth quarter.

5% decline in GDP in September

Economic dynamics in Russia turned down in September after two months of recovery momentum (July-August).

In September 2022, the rate of decline in Russia's GDP accelerated to 5%, the Ministry of Economic Development said.

The fact that it makes a strongly negative contribution to economic dynamics is the turnover of retail (non-food retail fell by 5% y/y) and wholesale trade (mainly due to the gas export factor).

In a very weak position, the production of vehicles, consumer and investment high-tech goods, where a high share of foreign technologies and imported components. The lower the technological redistribution, the higher the stability, respectively, the production of low and medium redistributions in Russia retains the ability to import substitution and growth, according to Spydell Finance.

In the seven months since the beginning of the year, Russia's GDP decreased by 1.1% year-on-year

The decline in the Russian economy slowed down for the first time since the start of the "special operation," according to the data. In Ministry of Economic Development July 2022, the fall GDP Russia was 4.3% in annual terms. In the seven months since the beginning of the year, the country's economy has decreased by 1.1% year-on-year.

4.1% decline in Q2

IMF forecast for Russia's GDP - $1.8 trillion

Banks made a mistake with the forecast of the collapse of Russia's GDP

At the beginning of July 2022, Russia is on track for a much weaker recession than many "forecasters" initially expected this year, which was facilitated by an increase in oil production, which dulled the impact of US and EU sanctions imposed after the start of a special operation by the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and other big banks are slashing their forecasts for a 2022 contraction of the economy to 3.5%, dismissing fears that the downturn could be the deepest in a generation.

Officials in Moscow, some of whom had predicted cuts of up to 12%, are now preparing to improve forecasts to less than half that figure.

2021

Russia entered the top 4 economies of the world in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity

The Russian economy entered the top 4 largest in the world in terms of GDP, calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP). Russia took the fourth line of the global rating, displacing Japan and Germany, at the end of 2021. These are the results of the International Comparison Program (ICP), implemented by the World Bank (WB). The data was published at the end of May 2024.

According to the WB study, Russia's share in world PPP GDP in 2021 reached 3.8% or $5.7 trillion in monetary terms. Thus, the country was ahead of Japan with 3.7% ($5.6 trillion) and Germany with 3.4% ($5.2 trillion). The first three places in the rating were taken by China (18.9% and $29 trillion), the United States (15.5% and $24 trillion) and India (7.2% and $11 trillion).

The Russian economy entered the top 4 largest in the world in terms of GDP

As the calculations of the international comparison program, based on updated data from the World Bank, show, Russia retained its fourth position in 2022 and 2023. Domestic PPP GDP increased to $6 trillion in 2022 and $6.45 trillion in 2023. At the same time, the Japanese economy grew to $5.9 trillion and $6.3 trillion, and Germany to $5.5 trillion and $5.9 trillion, respectively.

World Bank experts attribute Russia's consolidation in the world's four PPP leaders to effective government actions aimed at supporting businesses and the public amid the pandemic and Western sanctions. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stressed that thanks to the measures taken, the decline in GDP in 2020 was limited to 2.7%, and already in 2021, growth by 5.9% resumed.

President Vladimir Putin previously set the task of entering the TOP-4 of the largest economies in the world on PPP. According to ICP analysts, maintaining the current growth dynamics should ensure that this goal is achieved. At the same time, they note the importance of the foreign policy situation and the effectiveness of state support for business.

Reshetnikov noted that Russia's entry into the top four world economies on PPPs is a significant achievement, testifying to the stability and potential of the domestic economy. Further promotion of the country in the global ranking will depend on the government's ability to respond effectively to external challenges and stimulate economic growth.^[4]

Rosstat revised GDP growth to 5.6%

Rosstat in December 2022 revised GDP growth in 2021 to a maximum in 14 years. Rosstat, as part of the New Year's refinement of GDP of previous years, sharply increased its growth estimate in 2021 - by almost one percentage point, to 5.6%. The economy grew at the fastest pace since 2007 in the year before tough sanctions.

Average annual GDP growth over 40 years - 1.1%

Lag behind Kazakhstan and Belarus in GDP growth after the collapse of the USSR

GDP size - $1.65 trillion

Ministry of Economic Development: GDP growth by 4.6%

GDP Russia In 2021, it increased by 4.6% compared to 2020. Such data Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation was published on February 9, 2022. The department noted that the growth fully compensated for the decrease of 2.7% recorded in 2020.

Compared to 2019, when there was no COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the Russian economy grew by 1.8% in 2021. In recent years, comparable GDP growth rates in the Russian Federation were recorded in 2012, when the economy grew by 4%. It is also noted that annual GDP growth exceeded the September forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. Then the department predicted that the growth at the end of the year would not be 4.6%, but 4.2%.

As he writes RBC with reference to the review prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development "On the current situation in the Russian economy," the largest contribution to the recovery of GDP was made by construction and industrial production cargo turnover. At the same time agriculture , they recorded a decline due to a reduction in the harvest of grain, potatoes and vegetables, as well as a low growth rate in the production of livestock products.

Consumer demand indicators in 2021 demonstrated steady recovery growth. Thus, retail trade turnover increased by 7.3% (after a decrease of 3.2% in 2020), the volume of paid services to the population - by 17.6% (after falling by 14.8% a year earlier), catering turnover - by 23.5% (after falling by 22.6% in 2020).

According to the data, Rosstat the most noticeably added value increased in such areas of activity as hotels and catering establishments - by 25%; water supply, sanitation, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities - by 18.8%; activities in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment - 10.2%; finance and insurance - 9.6%; information and communication - by 8.6%.^[5]

Q1: 1% GDP decline

The Russian economy is recovering faster than expected.

According to preliminary estimates (May 17, 2021), GDP contracted by 1% in the first quarter, compared to the same period in 2020, which is less than 1.2% expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

IMF predicts strong growth in Russia's GDP

In January 2021, the International Monetary Fund sharply improved Russia's assessment for the next two years.

In 2021, Russia's GDP will add 3%, and in 2022 it will reach a record growth of 3.9% since 2012, the IMF predicts.

The fund's forecast for 2022 was increased by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2022 - 1.7 times.

In 2022, for the first time since 2013, Russian GDP will grow faster than American GDP and catch up with the speed of Eastern European countries.

2020

GDP per capita - $29,812

According to the World Bank for 2020, GDP per capita in the Russian Federation amounted to $29,812.

The share of the oil and gas sector in Russia's GDP is 15.2%

In July 2021, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for the first time published the share of the oil and gas sector in VVPRossia. At the end of 2020, the figure was 15.2%.

Vedomosti writes about this with reference to Pavel Maksimov, deputy head of the statistics department of the GDP produced by the National Accounts Department of Rosstat. Rosstat's methodology in the oil and gas sector includes enterprises engaged in the production of crude oil, natural gas, the production of products of their processing (the primary subsector, it accounted for about 72% of the total sector) and goods and services related to the production of oil and gas, their transportation and sale, as well as enterprises carrying out auxiliary activities (secondary subsector, about 28%). To calculate the share of the oil and gas sector in GDP, the amount of gross added value of the sector and taxes on industry products was divided by the size of GDP.

According to Rosstat, the largest share of the oil and gas sector in Russia's GDP was recorded in 2018 - at the level of 21.1%. In 2017 and 2019, rates were measured at 16.9% and 19.2%, respectively.

According to Ekaterina Grushevenko, an expert at the Center for Energy of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo," in Norway the contribution of the oil and gas sector to the economy in 2020 amounted to 14%, in Kazakhstan - 13.3%. At the same time, in Saudi Arabia, the share of gas oil in GDP is 50%, in the UAE - 30%. In the United States, the oil and gas sector brings in 8% of GDP.

The share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2020 contracted to 28%, but in previous years it was at the level of 40%. In commodity exports, the sector's share steadily exceeds 50%, and only in the pandemic year it decreased to 44.6%.

The share of the oil and gas sector in the Russian economy is larger, but not fundamentally, Alexander Isakov, chief economist at VTB Capital, told RBC. The calculation should include supporting industries from the production of pumping equipment to specialized education, the economist believes.^[6][7]

3% GDP contraction amid COVID-19 pandemic

In 2020, Russia experienced a smaller decline than most of the largest economies, after the government's decision not to introduce a second lockdown in the second half of the year during the COVID-19 pandemic.

GDP contracted by 3.1%, the biggest decline since 2009. The dynamics of GDP in 2020 relative to 2019 was influenced by a decrease in domestic final demand (-5.0%).

The contraction was milder than economists, who had forecast a 3.7% drop, had expected.

On April 1, 2021, Rosstat clarified the dynamics of the fall in Russia's GDP in 2020 - 3% instead of 3.1%.

Over 20 years, Russia's GDP has grown by 466%.

Russia's share of global PPP GDP fell to 2000

By the end of 2020, Russia's share in world GDP fell to a minimum since the beginning of the century. From the ruins of the Soviet Union, Russia took out 4.8% of the global gross product, calculated at purchasing power parity. By the default of 1998, this share had almost doubled - to 2.8%, and then began to grow gradually and synchronously with world prices for raw materials.

By 2000, Russia already accounted for 3.05% of world GDP, and by 2008 - 3.68%. This mark became the maximum from which the slide down began.

In 2013, the share of Russia was 3.55%, in 2014 - 3.44%.

Russia entered the COVID-19 pandemic with 3.107% of the global gross PPP product, and withdrew from it with 3.075% - the lowest value since 2000.

In the next five years, the trend towards the loss of a share in world GDP for Russia will not only continue, but will also accelerate, IMF experts believe.

1st half of the year: -3.4%

Rosstat on September 9, 2020 improved the estimate of the decline in GDP of the Russian Federation in the second quarter of 2020 to 8% from 8.5%, in the first half of the year - to 3.4% from 3.6%.

"The volume of Russia's GDP for the second quarter of 2020 amounted to 23288.2 billion rubles at current prices. The index of physical GDP volume compared to the second quarter of 2019 was 92.0%. The volume of GDP for the first half of 2020 amounted to 48605.8 billion rubles at current prices, the index of its physical volume compared to the first half of 2019 amounted to 96.6%. "

Earlier it was stated that GDP Russia in the first half of 2020 it decreased by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2019. This assessment Ministry of Economic Development was given on July 22 by the head of the department. Maxim Reshetnikov

When forecasting the budget at the moment , we are generally confident in the assessment that we made back in May. She assumed a reduction in GDP in the second quarter minus 9.5%, now the latest Rosstat figures say minus 9.6%. That is, we go exactly in that corridor, as expected, - he explained at a press conference.

According to Reshetnikov, the national economic recovery plan assumes that by the fourth quarter of 2021, the Russian Federation should reach pre-crisis quarterly GDP growth.

The Ministry of Economic Development in its picture of business activity reported that the fall in Russian GDP, according to the ministry, in June 2020 slowed down to 6.4% in annual terms after a decrease of 10.7% in May, a fall of 12% in April, growth by 0.8% in March, 2.7% in February and 1.6% in January.

The main reason for the recovery in economic activity in June was the recovery of the consumer market. The production complex and related industries in June continue to reduce GDP amid the OPEC + deal and weak external demand for oil^[8]%

Experts from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation estimated the economic decline in the second quarter of 2020 at 9.5-10% on an annualized basis. According to them, in May, the Russian economy passed the low point of recession associated with the negative consequences of the pandemic. " Against the background of the removal of some restrictions, recovery growth in a number of industries began in May, but the decline in the oil complex outweighed the effect of this growth on the economy as a whole. Judging by the leading indicators, in June and early July, the pace of recovery economic growth accelerated, especially in the service sector and retail trade, according to the Central Bank.

April: -28%

in GDP Russia April 2020, it decreased by 28% compared to the same period in 2019 and amounted to 6.3 trillion. rubles This is stated in the monthly report on the execution of the federal budget, which publishes. Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation

The department noted that we are talking about nominal GDP (calculated at current prices). Real GDP could decline by 20%. In 2019, Russian GDP amounted to 110 trillion rubles.

The economic failure in April 2020 was influenced not only by non-working days introduced as measures to combat the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, but also by a sharp drop in oil prices, the average price of which in April 2020 was $18.2 per barrel. A year earlier, the Russian brand Urals traded at $71.5.

It is not possible to accurately separate the effect of low oil prices on Russian GDP from the effect of coronavirus and the self-isolation regime at the moment, RBC writes.

This is the first official assessment of economic dynamics in April. The Ministry of Economic Development provides an operational estimate of GDP for reporting by the Ministry of Finance.

Operational estimates of GDP are considered the production method - according to the gross added value of the basic sectors of the economy. However, real GDP, unlike nominal GDP, is considered taking into account inflation.

The head of CBE Nabiullina said that the data of the leading indicators in April correspond to the forecast of the Central Bank on the fall of Russia's GDP by 8% in the second quarter of 2020.

The report of the Ministry of Finance on the execution of expenses for April 2020 showed a sharp increase in federal spending in parallel with the fall in income. The government spent 40% more this month than a year earlier. At the same time, in January-April, spending on health care increased 2.2 times year-on-year, and other spending items showed an increase from 17% to 33%.^[9]

Q1: + 1.8 %

Ministry of Economic Development, April: Russian GDP in the first quarter grew by 1.8% in annual terms.

2019

GDP $1.7 trillion or $11,600 per capita

+ 1.3% - Rosstat

According to estimates of the Federal State Statistics Service Rosstat (), GDP Russia in 2019 it grew by 1.3% against 2.5% a year earlier. The growth rate of the Russian economy turned out to be the smallest since 2016.

The volume of Russia's GDP for 2019 amounted to 110 trillion 046.1 billion rubles at current prices (earlier it was reported about 109 trillion 361.5 billion rubles). The deflator index in relation to the average annual prices of 2018 amounted to 103.8%.

The preliminary assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes the growth of the Russian economy at the end of 2019 at the level of 1.3%. At the same time, at the end of January, the ministry estimated the figure at 1.4%.

According to Rosstat, the largest impact on the growth of the physical volume of GDP during 2019 was the increase in the added value of extractive industries, financial and insurance activities, professional, scientific and technical activities, activities in the field of culture and sports.

In addition, in some periods there were positive dynamics in manufacturing (104.2% in the third quarter), wholesale and retail to trade (106.4% in the fourth quarter), transportation and storage activities (102.8% in the second quarter), education (101.4% in the first quarter).

According to Rosstat, the maximum growth of gross domestic product in 2019 was observed in financial and insurance activities (9.7% compared to last year). The index of the physical volume of GDP in the activities of hotels and catering enterprises amounted to 3.2%, in mining - 1.4%, in transportation and storage - 1.4%, according to the report of Rosstat.

The share of spending on final consumption in the structure of Russian GDP at the end of 2019 amounted to 69.2%, the share of gross accumulation - 23%, net exports - 7.6%.^[10]

2018

Growth by 2.3% to 101 trillion rubles

1.93% of global GDP, 11th in the world

PPP GDP - $27.1 thousand or 56th place in the world

This economic value is one of the most suitable for understanding in which regions of the world people live richer or poorer relative to other countries, because it takes into account not only how many goods and services a citizen of a state produces, but also the cost of living in a given country.

The world leader in this indicator is Qatar - $126,598. In the United States, it is $62,641 (11th in the world out of 189 countries). In Russia - $27,147 (56th place). Of the closest neighbors, Kazakhstan overtakes us - $27,831 and the Baltic countries - $28 362‒35 747.

The impact of ChM-2018 on Russia's GDP amounted to about $17 billion

On October 16, 2018, the Organizing Committee of the 2018 World Cup in Russia on football published a report on the economic effect. According to him, from 2013 to 2018 it amounted to 952 billion rubles. This is almost 40% more than the cost of holding the tournament.

According to the organizing committee, the total costs of the ChM-2018 amounted to 688 billion rubles. Moreover, compared to similar tournaments in other countries, the Russian mundial has become one of the best in terms of influencing the economy. The total impact of ChM-2018 on Russia's GDP amounted to about $17 billion, which exceeds the effect of similar championships in Brazil, South Africa, Germany and South Korea and is closest to Japan. In relative terms, the effect of ChM-2018 amounted to about 1.1% of Russia's annual GDP. According to this indicator, the tournament is second only to the championship in South Africa, since the GDP of this country in absolute terms is significantly less than that of other host countries.

The tangible economic effect of the ChM-2018 will be observed at least in the future for five years, according to the organizing committee of the tournament. According to the forecast, it will be from 150 to 210 billion rubles. per year. It is expected that about a third of the future effect of ChM-2018 will be on the development of tourism. While the bulk of the long-term impact will be achieved by the catalyst effect of the investment. The projected economic effect of the increase in tourist flow was determined at the level of 40-70 billion rubles. per year, from the impact of investments and operating expenses - at the level of 110-140 billion rubles^[11].

Comparison with Eastern European GDP

Share of tourism in GDP

GDP of the regions of Russia

2017

Real GDP growth of 1.5%

Real GDP growth in 2017 was recorded for the first time since 2014. At the same time, the key economic indicator entered the recovery growth phase, starting from the 4th quarter of 2016.

PPP GDP - $27.9 thousand per person

The volume of GDP per capita according to PPP for 2017 in Russia is $27,900 per person. According to this indicator, Russia ranks 44th in the world.

2016

PPP GDP - $23.1 thousand per person

Contribution of components to GDP growth over 20 years

Reducing the economy's dependence on oil prices

2015: - 3.5% for the first half of the year

For the first half of 2015, the decline in GDP amounted to 3.5% in annual terms, and in the first quarter the fall was 2.2%, and in the second quarter - 4.7% according to Vnesheconombank, or 5-5.5% year to year according to HSE. If the first quarter of 2015, crisis phenomena primarily affected non-industrial sectors: trade (-7.6%), the financial sector (-3.9%), real estate transactions, business services (-3.3%) and personal services (-6.9%), then in the second quarter, the total GDP decline deteriorated precisely due to the fall in industrial production.

In January 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4.8%, the International Monetary Fund - by 3%.

At the end of 2014, the Ministry of Economic Development allowed a fall in GDP in 2015 by 0.8%, and the Central Bank predicted a fall in GDP by 4.8% if the average annual price per barrel of oil was $60. The amendments to the state budget, adopted in April 2015, were supposed to reduce GDP by 3%.

At the end of December 2014, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev predicted a 3% decline in GDP Russia in 2015 with an oil price of $60 per barrel.

The three-year budget of Russia, adopted by the State Duma in November 2014, provided for economic growth at the level of 1.2% in 2015, 2.3% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. The budget is based on the Urals oil price forecast of about $100 per barrel.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (December 2013), GDP in 2015 will increase by 2.8 percent.

In April 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 4.5 to 4.1 percent.

2014: +0,6%

In 2014, GDP growth was 0.6%. The recession began in November 2014, when the first decline in GDP by 0.5% was recorded compared to November 2013.

According to the PMR forecast (November 2014), in 2014 the growth of the Russian economy will be close to zero.

File:Screenshot 2014-11-19 in 16.35.52.png

As of August 2014, according to the results of 2014, the Ministry of Economic Development expected the Russian economy to grow by 0.5%, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation - by 0.4%, the International Monetary Fund - by 0.2%.

According to the forecasts of February 2014, the economic growth rate in 2014 will be higher than in 2013, assures Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach: the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2014 remains 2.5%. But "if we take the current trends," then the growth rate may be lower, he does not exclude: in the first quarter, the Ministry of Economic Development expects economic growth by only 1% in annual terms, in the second quarter there is hope for acceleration - to 1.5-2% (quotes from Interfax)^[12].

The Ministry of Economic Development hopes that investments and industry will revive, the deputy minister said. 2013 began with the same hopes, but then the forecast had to be reduced several times from 3.6% to the resulting 1.3%. Investments did not grow, but decreased and so far the negative trend continues, Klepach admitted. The industry "flared up" at the end of 2013, but this cannot yet be called sustainable growth, he said.

A negative contribution to economic growth was made by a slowdown in lending rates - the Ministry of Economic Development calculated at 17-20%, and it turned out to be 12.7%, Klepach said. Only investments can support the economy, and loans are needed for their growth, Minister Alexei Ulyukaev explained earlier. However, in 2014, the risks of a slowdown in lending remain, Klepach warned: they are primarily related to the possibility that the Central Bank will raise rates due to inflation, which may be fueled by the weakening of the ruble. Raising rates could be a significant factor in limiting the pace of economic growth, Klepach warned.

In January, the Ministry of Economic Development kept the forecast for economic growth in 2014 by 2.5%.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (December 2013), GDP in 2014 will increase by 2.5 percent.

In April 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2014 from 4.3 to 3.7 percent.

According to a study by RAEK and HSE Economics 2014-2015, the volume of investigated Internet markets (content and services) amounted to 1,094 billion rubles at the end of 2014, and the volume of the electronic payment market - 476 billion rubles, which is equivalent to 2.2% of Russia's GDP for 2014. At the same time, the volume of the economy of Internet-dependent markets amounted to more than 11.8 trillion. rubles, which is comparable to 16% of Russia's GDP.

2013

Growth by 1.3% to 66.7 trillion rubles due to spending on final consumption

According to Rosstat, the nominal volume of Russian GDP in 2013 amounted to 66.7 trillion rubles, its real growth is 1.3%.

In terms of the structure of GDP consumption, the main driver was spending on final consumption - they provided the economy with growth by 2.3 percentage points out of 1.3%, and a little more than completely - at the expense of households, since the contribution of public administration costs was negative. A year earlier, household consumption provided the economy with 3.3 pp of growth out of 3.4%, but in 2013 the growth rate of population consumption slowed down 1.7 times.

The reduction in investments was deducted from the GDP growth rate of 0.8 pp, net exports - another 0.2 pp, Nikolai Kondrashov from the HSE Development Center calculated. The share of gross accumulation in GDP for the year decreased from 24.3 to 23.1%, and the share of consumption exceeded 71% (including households - 51.4%).

In the structure of GDP production, there was a total slowdown in the growth of gross value added in all sectors - with the exception of agriculture, which compensated for the decline the year before last, and the sphere of public administration and security. In the manufacturing industry, the growth rate of gross value added fell 3.4 times (to 0.8%), in the mining industry - almost twice (to 0.9%). Power and construction went into negative^[12].

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (December 2013), GDP in 2013 was supposed to increase by 1.4 percent.

Oil and gas exports provide 10% of GDP

In the early 2010s, about half of the revenues of the federal budget of Russia were generated by the sale of oil and gas. The same source provides about 10% of Russia's GDP.

The plan of GDP growth by tens of percent due to the inclusion in the calculation of military assets, R&D expenses and conditional residential rent

In August 2013, it was announced that the nominal would GDP Russia grow by tens of percent in the coming years. The base of its calculation will include new indicators - military assets, R&D expenses, conditional residential rent (the price that the owner of the apartment could receive for renting it out if he did not live in it himself). So the country will switch to the system of national accounts (SNA) of 2008 instead of the current SNA of 1993.

As before, everything that is under the jurisdiction of the police is considered as assets, but military assets do not fall into this settlement base. "The new SNA requires that we allocate military assets both as part of the main capital and as part of working capital," explains the head of Rosstat Alexander Surinov. According to the new scheme, reusable items (for example, means of delivering shells and bombs) should be included in fixed assets, and the bombs themselves should be included in working capital. "This means that we must recalculate everything and this will lead to an increase in GDP," says the head of the Military Service^[13].

Alexander Surinov does not see a threat to national security in connection with the disclosure of this information. According to him, the report will reflect only the balance sheet, and all other countries, including the United States and China, will also reveal it. "We are not talking about the weapons system, how much they buy, this information will not be - only accounting figures, this is not scary. The issue of confidentiality is not worth it here - we have aggregation, specific enterprises will not be called, "the head of Rosstat assures.

In accordance with the 2008 SNA, other indicators will be included in the calculation of GDP. Among them are R&D expenses and conditional residential rent (the cost of living services in your own home). The latter will increase nominal GDP by 7-9%, estimated Alexander Surinov.

"Previously, the IMF reproached us for not taking it into account, now we are correcting it," he explains. It will also affect the calculation of inflation: the share of housing costs will increase in consumer prices.

How much GDP will ultimately grow as a result of the transition to a new standard, Alexander Surinov finds it difficult to answer, but emphasizes that less than one and a half times. "What of these innovations will affect the dynamics of the economy is not yet known," he adds.

Head of the Department of Statistics of the Financial University under the Government Viktor Salin positively assesses the initiative to switch to a new SNA. "According to statistics, we are one of the best in the world, there should be no problems with this transition," he is optimistic.

In April 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development lowered its official forecast for economic growth in 2013 from 3.6 to 2.4 percent.

At the end of March 2013, Belousov's deputy Andrei Klepach reported that in February 2013, economic growth in annual terms amounted to only 0.1 percent. In January, this figure was at the level of 1.6 percent, in December - at the level of 2.4 percent^[14].

Economic growth in Russia is declining amid relatively low demand for Russian exports, stable oil prices, reduced investment in fixed assets and a decline in industrial production. The country's leaders, Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, previously stated that Russia needs sustainable GDP growth of 5-6 percent per year.

2012

GDP growth of 3.4%

At the end of 2012, the Russian economy grew by 3.4 percent, but the main growth occurred at the beginning of the year. Since the second half of 2012, the rate of GDP growth has been declining.

PPP GDP: Russia bypassed the Baltic countries

In terms of GDP per capita, Russia in 2012 is ahead of all countries of the former USSR (data from the World Bank).

GDP growth forecasts

• In November 2012, according to the ministry's forecast, in the fourth quarter, GDP was supposed to grow by 2.6-2.7 percent on an annualized basis, and growth for the entire year was 3.5 percent. The same assessment is given by the World Bank, which also predicts an acceleration in growth (to 3.6 percent) at the end of 2013.

• VTB Capital gave the following forecast of economic indicators until 2016:

• In October 2012, analysts of the Polish PMR provided the following data on macroeconomic indicators of Russia:

• On June 29, 2012, Ernst & Young presented another forecast for Russia.

According to our current forecast, GDP growth in 2012 will be 4%. However, given the unexpected decline in this indicator in the first quarter, it increases the likelihood that this value will eventually be 3.5-4%. Nevertheless, despite the decline in government spending, domestic demand will remain stable. In March and April, there was a slight decline in investment activity, but the main indicators remain high; the profit of enterprises remains positive, and the volume of unloaded production capacity is decreasing. In addition, the growth in lending to non-financial corporations, which amounted to 26% in the year to February, indicates a consistently high level of funding needs. Therefore, according to our forecasts, the decline in investment activity will be insignificant.
The main factors affecting the level of consumer spending appear to remain stable; the shortage of specialists in the labor market contributes to maintaining high wage growth rates. Despite this, real purchasing power in the second half of this year will decrease due to increasing inflation.

Interest rates did not change in 2012, but the recent decline in inflation allows us to conclude that the real situation in the monetary sector has deteriorated significantly. In addition, despite concerns about a possible liquidity deficit, the Central Bank, taking into account the relevant risks, generally continued to pursue a rather tough policy, trying to prevent exceeding the inflation target for this year, which was 5-6%. Thus, the likely increase in interest rates in the second half of the year, aimed at curbing inflation in 2013, may negatively affect the level of demand in late current and early 2013.

Against the background of rather pessimistic forecasts for Germany and the Scandinavian countries and expectations of a slowdown in other European countries in the next few years, the prospects for economic growth in Russia also look somewhat vague. Concerns about falling oil production in the Middle East are offset by a significant weakening of global demand. As a result, global oil prices are expected to decline further in 2013, which in turn will limit government spending and significantly affect investment, business conditions and consumer confidence. As a result, high government spending due to high oil revenues from sales will continue to decline, which will lead to a decrease in economic growth in 2013 to the forecast level of 3%, which will increase slightly in 2014 (to 4%).

Given the stable level of energy prices and the lack of prerequisites for increasing demand in Europe as a whole (the main market for Russian oil and gas), in the long term, achieving economic growth indicators of 2003-2007, which amounted to 7% or more, seems unlikely.

Source: Ernst & Young, June 2012

Earlier, in October 2011, Ernst & Young gave more optimistic forecasts of the development of Russia's main economic indicators until 2015 (the rationale is given in the sections "GDP dynamics" and "Economic dependence on oil prices" below). For most indicators, these forecasts of the company turned out to be erroneous.

Source: Ernst & Young, October 2011

• In May 2012, OECD experts revised their forecast for Russia's GDP growth, noting that by the end of 2012. its volume will increase by 4.5%. In the previous OECD report, Russia's GDP growth in 2012. predicted at 4.1%.

The organization's report notes that the estimate of economic growth for the current year has been changed against the background of higher oil prices and some detente of the debt crisis in the eurozone.

The OECD associates the main risks of a slowdown in economic growth in Russia with a worsening situation in the global economy, which could provoke a drop in world oil prices and an acceleration in capital outflows from the country.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also recently raised its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2012, predicting an acceleration in GDP growth from 3.3% to 4%. The main reason for this jump, IMF experts called the continuing high oil prices.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MED) of Russia lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2012. from 3.7% to 3.4%. Elvira Nabiullina, who then headed the Ministry of Economic Development, noted that the decrease in the forecast was due to the revaluation of the base and additional GDP growth in 2011, which was not expected.

Experian Report "Russian Economy: Results and Forecasts (2011-2015)"

• The growth of the Russian economy for the nine months of 2012 amounted to 3.9 percent compared to the same period of the previous year (Rosstat). Rosstat data were slightly higher than the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development, which calculated GDP growth at 3.8 percent in January-September.

In the third quarter, Russia's GDP grew by 2.9 percent, while the rise in the first three months amounted to 4.9 percent, and in the second quarter it slowed to 4 percent.

The slowdown in year-on-year growth is largely due to the higher base of the second half of 2011. In the third quarter of 2011, GDP grew by 5 percent, while in the second quarter it grew by only 3.4 percent. Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach agreed earlier with a high base as the main reason for the slowdown.

In October, the Ministry of Economic Development stated that only with GDP growth of 4-4.5 percent per year will it be possible to balance Russia's social obligations and its defense spending with resource capabilities.

• Russia's GDP in the second quarter of 2012 grew in annual terms by 4 percent. This was reported in the official press release of Rosstat, which provides a preliminary estimate of the dynamics of the country's GDP. As Interfax points out, based on quarterly data, semi-annual GDP growth can be estimated at 4.4-4.5 percent.

Rosstat data almost coincided with the assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development, which in mid-July 2012 estimated an increase in GDP in the second quarter at 3.9 percent. According to the ministry, in the first quarter, the country's economy climbed 4.9 percent, and in January-July - about 4.4 percent.

In July, Russian Minister of Economic Development Andrei Belousov said that the forecast for economic growth for 2012 could be raised from 3.4 to 3.8-4 percent. The revised forecast is expected to be prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development by the end of August 2012.

• At the end of April 2012 Dmitry Medvedev, being the president of Russia, expressed a desire to increase the growth rate of the economy. "The GDP growth rate of 4% is not bad for the United States, we would have 6 or 7%, as in China and India," said D. Medvedev.

• In the first quarter of 2012, GDP growth compared to the previous year was 4% (the initial figure of 4.9% after the revision was significantly lower). Thus, seasonally adjusted quarterly growth was only 0.1%.

Ernst & Young (June 2012): The country's economy was probably positively affected by additional financial stimulus measures in the first quarter, which significantly increased the wages of civil servants. However, the sharp increase in the purchasing power of the population may be associated with an artificial drop in inflation as a result of the containment of the growth of tariffs for housing and communal services, which, as a rule, are revised in January. In 2012, however, due to the presidential election held in March, the tariff revision was delayed until July.

Eurozone problems will continue to have a negative impact on the development of the Russian economy throughout 2012, provoking a slowdown in export activity, as well as a decrease in foreign direct investment and other sources of capital inflows. The situation will be aggravated by the recent fall in oil prices, which are projected to decline by an average of 5% in 2012. In March and April, the growth of industrial production slowed down, and the fall in global demand has a negative impact on business activity in sectors of the economy that are more exposed to external risks.

The main factors of economic growth remain the strengthening of domestic demand, measures of state support in the field of fiscal and tax incentives, a further decrease in the unemployment rate, which in May 2012 reached its lowest value in the last four years of 5.4%. However, at present, there is a sharp tightening of fiscal policy, which to some extent neutralizes the continuing strengthening of domestic demand.

• In the first quarter of 2012, Russia's GDP, according to Rosstat, grew by 4.9% compared to January-March 2011. This is the highest among the G8 countries. For comparison: in Germany over the same period, GDP grew by only 1.2%, in the United States - by 2.1%, and in Italy it completely decreased by 1.3%. However, the economies of China and India still grew faster than the Russian one, adding 8.1% and 6.5%, respectively^[15].

2011

Real GDP growth of 4.3%

At the end of 2011, Russian GDP increased by 4.3 percent.

From 2003 to 2011, Russia developed faster than most countries

For the most visual comparison, it is worth using not estimates of international organizations like World Bank the IMF, and not domestic - Rosstat but estimates of the CIA (USA CIA data The World Factbook ).

The main comparative indicator of countries is GDP at purchasing power parity.

The comparison base in this case is GDP, not GNP (gross national product), as this allows you to clear the comparison of the impact of the export-import balance. In the Russian case, it is extremely positive - due to the export of energy resources, and will significantly affect the importance and position of the country. But, since most of the revenue received from exports is placed in "kubyshkuo" (foreign treasury bonds, currency, precious metals), it is better to exclude it - within the country it does not produce any serious economic effect, but plays the role of a stabilizer^[16].

This is followed by a comparison of GDP, not GNP, as this clears the comparison from the influence of "gift oil" as much as possible. In this case, countries with negative trade balances, such as Turkey, the USA, Latvia or Greece, will benefit, and countries such as Russia, Norway, Germany or China are losing, well, okay. It should also be mentioned that the CIA comparison is the most stringent to the situation of the Russian Federation in the world (this can be seen here).

Important:

a) this comparison is made with the absolute size of the economies of the countries of the world, and not with relative (per capita),

b) GDP is calculated at purchasing power parity, and not by simple mathematical recalculation of current exchange rates of countries of the world. This is done to improve the objectivity of the assessment. Explanations are given on the CIA website, and there are detailed explanations on the Web why a simple recalculation of the course has long been virtually not used for comparison, as not correct enough.

The period was taken from 2003 to 2011 - eight years, during which quite significant world events occurred. First of all, this is the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, as well as a chain of "color revolutions" that greatly influenced the post-Soviet space and the development of the former republics of the USSR.

There are two groups of columns in the table - for 2003 and for 2011, and in each group of 4 columns.

Column 1 - shows the country's place in the world for this year. The World (world) and European Union (EU) meters, which do not belong to specific countries, were removed from the original CIA table, but were numbered in the general table. Only the countries of the world themselves remained.

Column 2 - Country. Countries are only those that are significant for research from the standpoint of Russia:

• the first twenty countries of the world - the whole
• all republics of the former USSR - entirely
• some countries that are interesting for general comparison (Poland, Israel, Turkey, Cuba, etc.)

Column 3 - the value of VNP according to the item taken from the corresponding annual section of the CIA website. The World Factbook. All data is easily verifiable.

Column 4 - The weight of the economy of a particular country relative to Russia, in percent. Russia is accepted as 100%, and the GDP of other countries is recalculated as% of its GDP - both for 2003 and for 2011. From this column you can clearly see whether the size of the economy of a particular country has grown relative to Russia, or has decreased.

You can look at the indicator and vice versa - is Russia catching up with a specific country, or lagging behind it, for the 8th anniversary under consideration? If the percentage in the graph has decreased, it catches up, if it has increased, it lags behind. In addition, the relative weight of countries compared to Russia can also be clearly assessed immediately. For example, Poland in 2011 is a third of the Russian economy (32.2%).

Column 5 (on the left of the column groups) - shows in color who rolls where and in which direction. Beliy - remained in place in the world table of ranks, orange - rolls down, green - goes up. Rise and fall record holders are highlighted in a more intense color.

Comparison of the countries of the world by GDP (PPP) with an indication of the size of the economy relative to Russia

Some conclusions from the table.

1. Russia, contrary to established and enduring myths, is now not at all "rapidly lagging behind" China, but even a little closer to it in 8 years. In 2003, China surpasses it by more than 5 times, and after 8 years - by 4.7 times. That is, at least, "runs flat."

Relative to the United States - eight years ago it was 8.5 times less, now - 6.3 times. For eight years, the Russian Federation moved 4 places up, in the economic table of ranks, to 6th place in the world - after Turkey, this is the second result in the Top 20.

The same is true of Japan - in 2003, the Japanese were almost 3 times more than us, and now - significantly less than 2 times. So Japan's chances of a hypothetical revenge are gradually decreasing, let's face it, because economic growth makes it possible to maintain the armed forces even better.

2. Surprisingly dynamic growth Turkey- she is the record holder for GDP growth in the Top 20 group. 8 years ago, she is not in the top twenty, but now she has taken 16th place. Yes, if God forbid, the EU will take it into its ranks by stupidity - in 20 years it will devour all the Balkans and begin to bite off pieces from the stagnating economies of the old. Europe

3. The most dynamic player in stagnant To Europe is Poland. It, like Russia, moved 4 places up (from 24th to 20th). 8 years ago, Poland was the size of a quarter, and France now - with a third. It's a big growth. At the same time, however, this growth comes with a large negative balance in external to trade and increase in debts, which carries serious risks (this also applies to Turkey). Although, if there is anything to give in the future, then nothing is normal. The main thing is not like in Greece.

4. Iran, despite harsh sanctions and pressure, still slightly improved its position in the world (from 18th to 17th place).

5. The countries of "Old Europe" (Britain, France, Italy) are gradually deteriorating their position in the world, being in the stage of stagnation. The same applies to Canada, which has worsened its place by 3 positions.

6. The Netherlands and Thailand, the former "tiger of Asia," dropped out of the Top 20, more dynamic Poland and Turkey entered the top twenty.

7. India overtook Japan, and "dictatorial" Cuba and Azerbaijan moved up 20 and 18 places. And in general, the table clearly shows that "democratic" countries as a whole are developing much more slowly than "undemocratic." And therefore, new wars and sanctions in order to crush successful, but wrong (such as Iran) are still coming. The shift in the world order has never been trouble-free.

8. If 2001 were taken as the base, and not 2003, tectonic shifts would be visible even more clearly. So, Russia then occupied the 12th, not the 10th (2003) place in the world, Turkey was even lower in rank, Poland too, Germany and Japan more, etc.

When analyzing the state of affairs in the post-Soviet space, column No. 5 is added in the table - it shows the amount of economic growth over the same 8 years.

Some conclusions from the table.

1. The most important thing is the terrifying fall in the role and importance of Ukraine over the past 8 years. She moved to the world table on GDP ranks by 8 places down (from 31st to 38th), relative to Russia too - she was more than 1/5 of her neighbor, and now she barely exceeds 13% of her - that is, less than 1/7.

The same - and relatively another critical neighbor - Poland. If 19 years ago Ukraine (the heir to the Ukrainian SSR) was economically more than Poland by 14%, 205 against 180 billion $ (Factbook 1993), then already in 2003 - Poland is 1.7 times more than it. And now - almost 2.4 times.

There are two reasons, and both are important:

• Ukraine is part of a powerful empire, a supplier of managerial personnel and a base of advanced industry of a huge Eurasian market - this is one thing, and an independent one that has lost markets, devoid of cheap energy sources of a single state, this is another;

• the "Orange Revolution" and the incompetent rule of V. Yushchenko (2005-2010) during the period under review.

In general, it can be clearly seen that revolutions (of different colors) for large countries are an unacceptable luxury and a source of huge problems for subsequent development. On the example of Ukraine, it is clear that the "orange" countries did not solve any problems, but many aggravated the previous ones. By the way, this also applies to Russia, if similar events hypothetically occur in it - only the damage will be even greater, since the system is more complex and the economy is larger. That is, evolution is both cheaper and safer than revolution.

2. "Dictatorial" Belarus (Belarus) under the iron heel of Old Man, on the contrary, has noticeably strengthened its position - despite all the dislocations, devaluations and problems in the field of finance. Moreover, Belarusians even slightly improved the weight of their economy and relatively Russian (from 5% to 6%), which also developed quite quickly.

This is especially well illustrated by the Belarus/Lithuania pair - see at the bottom of the table: real production, albeit not the best in the world, against the artificially inflated service sector and the destruction of production inherited from the empire. As they say, the comments are superfluous.

3. The highest growth leader is Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan, more than three times! Armenia should think very seriously if this trend continues further.

4. Among the Baltic limitrophes, Lithuania and Latvia gradually acquire the features of failed states, since they successfully got rid of imperial industry, and did not acquire a new one. In addition, they are critically bleeding out in terms of the economically active population. Estonia, on the other hand, remained on the verge and found its place in the European division of labor - on sea transportation, freight and passenger.

5. Georgia, thanks to the decisive roll to the West, and the corresponding injections into the economy, managed to extract dividends from the "rose revolution" and economically doubled. And despite the 2008 war. That is, you can, of course, laugh at how Saakashvili eats a tie, but nevertheless the country has not lost its economic position, but, on the contrary, has strengthened them. But this is done with a huge negative foreign trade balance - that is, with great risks in the future (Polish model).

6. Nazarbayev's authoritarian-Bayan Kazakhstan is developing rapidly and at the same time evenly. As well as dictatorial Uzbekistan. Another reason is to compare the state of "revolution, anarchy" and the state of "authoritarian stability," by aggregate result - say, with neighboring Kyrgyzstan.

7. Outsiders who have no prospects as independent states - Moldova and Kyrgyzstan. Since the prosperous times of the Soviet empire, they have literally fallen into the abyss, into the lowest ranks of losers. Tajikistan, on the contrary, has more than doubled - but, I suspect, thanks to transfers to families sent from Russia.

Growth in the first half of the year by 3.9%

GDP Russia grew in the first half of 2011 by 3.9%, and in the second half of the year it is expected to grow by 4.5%. This was announced by the Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina at a meeting of the government presidium.

In turn, the deputy head of the department, Andrei Klepach, added that in the second quarter, economic growth rates slowed down slightly compared to the first quarter. If in the first quarter GDP grew by 4.1% to the same period in 2010, then in the second quarter growth is estimated at 3.7%. "June continued the trend towards fairly sustainable economic growth," the deputy minister said. Taking into account the seasonal factor, according to the ministry, the country's economy in June showed growth of 0.3%, while in May this figure was 0.4% compared to the previous month.

Despite the increase in development rates associated with an increase in oil and gas prices, the state of the Russian economy remains disappointing, Ernst & Young notes (October 4, 2011). Reaching 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010, annual GDP growth declined to 4.1% in the first quarter and to 3.4% in the second quarter of 2011. Data with seasonal adjustments are not yet ready, but analysts suggest that quarterly growth decreased in the second quarter to 0.4%, which is significantly lower than usual. This result does not meet expectations based on rather encouraging indicators of industrial production and retail sales. Of course, the weakening economy was affected by the deterioration of the situation in the eurozone, where the pace of development declined sharply due to the spreading fears of a public debt crisis. Market sentiment has deteriorated significantly, leading to a flight of investors into highly reliable assets. In Russia, this trend manifested itself in a sharp increase in sales on local stock exchanges and a 5.8% fall in the ruble against the bi-currency basket. The slowdown in global economic growth and the unwillingness of investors to accept risks pose the main threat to Russia due to their impact on oil prices, despite the fact that until now these prices have been determined by demand volumes.

However, Russia can still count on economic growth, say Ernst & Young. Inflation is slowing, which in turn leads to an increase in real wages and keeps interest rates, and in the budget adopted in September 2011, additional expenses and wage increases are planned in the short term. After the first half of the year, which did not bring the expected results, the projected indicators of GDP growth in 2011 were reduced to 3.8%. Despite this, the indicators should grow again closer to 2012 as a result of the growth in consumer demand.

2010

4.5% increase

In 2010 GDP Russia , it grew by 4.5%.

GDP per capita in BRIC countries

1928-1987: GDP dynamics in the USSR

Notes