Trade between Russia and the EU

The main articles are:

• Russia's Foreign Trade
• EU Foreign Trade

2024

The EU conducts direct deliveries to Russia with an indication in the documents of Kyrgyzstan

In April 2024, exports to Russia through third countries in Central Asia continue to remain at a record level. Kyrgyzstan is a key hub for transshipment, with exports from European countries never arriving in Bishkek. Kyrgyzstan is what is indicated in the bill, but these goods go directly to Russia.

Direct trade with Russia decreased to the level of 1999 - €67.5 billion

and at the Trade Russia European Union end of 2024 decreased to €67.5 billion, which was the minimum since 1999.

Continued high export of cars to Kazakhstan for their re-export to Russia

Growth of fertilizer imports from Russia

In June 2024, European fertilizer producers oppose large imports from Russia. According to Eurostat, about a third of urea imports to the EU come from the Russian Federation, and in 2023 the volume of supplies was almost a record.

The flows are undermining efforts to reopen capacity that has been idled by the energy crisis, according to lobbying group Fertilizers Europe.

2023

Direct exports to Russia continue to decline

Grain imports from Russia exceeded the level before the conflict in Ukraine

Losses of the largest European companies in Russia exceeded $100 billion after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine

By August 2023, the largest European companies suffered direct losses of at least 100 billion euros from their activities in Russia since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 , the Financial Times wrote.

Record trade surplus with Russia - 271 million euros in April

By April 2023, foreign trade between Russia and the EU was virtually destroyed. Over the year, the supply of Russian goods to YeS-27 collapsed 5.8 times (from 23.5 to 4 billion euros). March deliveries were the lowest for the entire period of statistics since 2002 and half as low as in the worst period of the 2009 and 2016 crisis according to Eurostat.

In comparison with the worst month of the COVID-19 crisis, imports from Russia to the EU fell by 25%, and relatively average supplies in 2018-2019 fell by more than three times.

The situation with exports is slightly better - a complete blockade was not achieved and European countries delivered goods to Russia in January-March 2023 by 3.8 billion euros on average per month, and in March 4.3 billion.

For comparison, the average monthly supplies from Europe to Russia in 2021 amounted to 7.4 billion euros, and in 2018-2019 they exported 7.1 billion per month. Losses of about 40-50% of pre-crisis supplies.

As a result, from the record deficit of trade with Russia in mid-2022 (reached up to 20 billion per month), the balance of foreign trade reached a record surplus in history (so far a symbolic 271 million euros in April). Apart from the 2022 anomalies, the pre-crisis deficit was 6-7 billion euros per month.

Russia's share in EU exports collapsed to 1.8% compared to 4-4.2% in 2017-2021, and in 2008 it reached 8% on average per year.

In this sense, the window to Europe has closed, and dependence on Russia in Europe has decreased to a historical minimum - these are geopolitical realities.

Reducing trade deficit with Russia to a record low of 1.6 billion euros in February

The trade deficit with Russia (i.e. Russia's surplus with YeS-27) fell in February 2023 to a symbolic 1.6 billion euros per month after setting a record of 19.6 billion in March 2022. This is a very low deficit, 4-5 times lower than "normal."

As of February 2023. Source: Spydell Finance

This data covers only official trade through customs zones between countries, it does not take into account gray, smuggling supplies or trade through third countries on parallel imports.

Russia's share in EU exports decreased to 1.7% compared to 4.2% from 2017 to 2021, from 6.7% in 2012-2013 and 7% in 2008. It has never been so low in trade between Russia and the EU.

As of February 2023. Source: Spydell Finance

In February, exports to Russia from the EU countries halved compared to February 2022 to 3.6 billion euros.

2022

Six EU countries have restored trade with Russia to February levels. Imports from the EU in 6 months decreased by 31%

In June 2022, imports and exports increased Bulgaria, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Croatia and Estonia, follows from the agency's calculations. RBC wrote that in June exports from the EU to Russia increased by 18% compared to May.

In general, in the first half of the year, exports of goods from the EU to Russia decreased by 31% - to 28.4 billion euros from 41.1 billion a year earlier.

Record €432bn deficit in EU goods trade due to failed bid to pressure Russia

The highest EU trade deficit in history was recorded in 2022, in the amount of 432 billion euros.

The deficit was due, in particular, to a sharp increase in the cost of energy imports, which began at the end of 2021 and continued for most of 2022.

Growth in trade with Russia by 2.3% to 258.6 billion euros. Record for 8 years

The trade turnover of Russia and the European Union at the end of 2022 reached a maximum in 8 years. The import of goods from Russia into the EU in 2022 increased by a quarter and reached 203.4 billion euros, which is only 230 million less than the historical high of 2012 (203.6 billion euros). At the same time, exports from the EU to Russia decreased by 38.1% - to the lowest 55.2 billion euros since 2005. However, such a decrease in Russia's import of goods directly from the EU did not prevent it from reaching the maximum level of trade turnover since 2014: it grew by 2.3% over the year - to 258.6 billion euros.

Less than 9% of EU and G7 companies left the Russian market during the conflict in Ukraine

Economists at the University of St. Gallen found that most of the companies headquartered in the EU and G7 countries continue to operate in Russia. Less than 9% of firms left the Russian market due to the situation in Ukraine. The results of the study were published in January 2023. Of those who remained in the country, 19.5% are companies from Germany, 12.4% are from the United States.

EU trade deficit in Russia remains at record levels

The trade surplus of Russia and the YeS-27 countries continues to decline for the seventh month in a row, but still remains at very high levels by historical standards.

In October 2022, Russia had a surplus of 8.8 billion euros with the EU countries, which is less than in October 2021 (9.4 billion euros), but should be compared with the average values.

Spydell Finance Data

The average monthly surplus in 2021 between Russia and the EU was 6.1 billion euros, in 2020 - 1.3 billion, in 2019 - 4.8 billion, in 2018 - 6.5 billion, in 2017 - 4.6 billion, and from 2012 to 2014 an average of 6.8 billion.

From 2013 to September 2021, the trade surplus did not exceed 8 billion euros, so the current 8.8 billion is very good, but significantly less in comparison with the anomaly after the SVO against the background of a record release of gas and oil prices.

In March 2022, the trade surplus was 19.6 billion euros, but has been continuously shrinking since April. From January to October 2022, the surplus amounted to a record 134 billion euros, compared with 53 billion in 2021.

This happens with the rapid compression of Russia's exports to the EU (the graph shows how imports from Russia to the EU-27). The maximum volume of exports from Russia to the EU was in March 2022 - 23.6 billion euros, and now - 13.1, but this is above the average 12 billion euros, which was considered a good pre-crisis level in the period before the pandemic in 2018-2019.

Imports from the EU to Russia stabilized by 4-4.3 billion euros, finding a balance under sanctions restrictions, but this is at least from 2009, 2015 and comparable to 2005. In general, imports almost halved from 7.6 billion euros between March and October 2021 to 4 billion in 2022.

Decrease in uranium supplies from Russia

At the end of 2022, the supply of Russian uranium to the countries of the European Union decreased, but the fall was insignificant. This was announced by the participants of the international forum World Nuclear Fuel Cycle, held in The Hague from April 18 to 20, 2023. Read more here.

Growth in exports of chocolate products to Russia by 17.6% to a record 617 million euros

According to the results of 2022, the export of chocolate and sweets from the European Union to Russia increased to a historic maximum of 617 million euros. The EU countries imported almost 87 thousand tons of chocolate products into Russia in 2022. In monetary terms, European exports grew by 17.6% over the year.

Exports of passenger cars to Russia decreased by 73% in 10 months to 679 million euros

Exports from the European Union to Russia of cars intended for the transportation of people in January-October 2022 amounted to 679.2 million euros against 2.52 billion euros a year earlier (-73%). Eurostat

The rise of trade with Russia's neighbors due to circumvention of EU sanctions against the Russian Federation

The rapid growth of trade flows USA EU with neighbors Russia may be a sign that sanctions can be avoided, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development believes.

German exports to Russia from May to July 2022 fell 38% compared to the average for the same period in 2017-2019. However, it almost doubled to Armenia and more than tripled to Kyrgyzstan - a trend also seen in trade flows to the Caucasus and Central Asia from the US, Britain and EU countries.

Notes