TAdviser Interview: the science fiction writer Vadim Panov - about perspectives of inevitable digitization of people

Vadim Panov: The technology thought did not stop, just the opposite, we develop, but long ago there were no new scientific theories. What is very important for advance. All scientific theories based on which the modern technology thought, from 19-20 centuries develops. The last from them - Quantum, is the 20-30th years of the last century. All. After that serious theories which could open the new directions in science were not. We live on what already exists, is thought already up. As long we will exist so - it is unknown because any system has a limit.

We need the following technology way, we should pass to it. And, anyway, it will begin with power. Always the mankind moves forward, develops, making a start from what provides our industry with capacities. And it is not Facebook, to horror of modern people. Even not TikTok (social network) and not Tesla. It is a power. These are those large companies which are in the shelter now and at which laugh: "My God, look, Facebook by 12 times exceeded Gazprom on capitalization!". Yes, but if there is no Gazprom, it is possible to die of cold and if Facebook disappears, the people will be bored for a while couple of evenings and will forget about it.

Now the base for new breakthrough is absent. There is no new energy, and we will cut the next technologies from what already is. Something turns out, something is not present, but we at the deadlock is a reality. On what we have we will not support 10-20 billion people. It is necessary to understand that environmental and resource problems will accrue. We will need new solutions, unexpected. We should develop the ocean. Not that in which reeves got used to float. And what lies at a depth below a kilometer. There still are untapped resources, and they can be useful. The ocean is much more sushi, and we need new food. The UN already recognized that thanks to a kovid we have now food crisis which will accrue most likely. It is logical for a present situation. As it will be solved - an important issue, but is explicit not using social networks.

Vadim Panov: As for 2020: supporters of plots will tell - everything was planned, others will answer - it is a course of nature. But yes - we are actively tsifrovizut. We sit on houses both often only and reliable communication with the world is a network. The most part of activities and opportunities us is forced to take away there. Not movie theater, but cinema on a sofa; not real-life communication with people, and a meeting on Zuma; not school, but udalenka. What will be the pupils who graduated school far off it is even better not to think now... When our children of 7,8,9 classes gaining knowledge on an udalenka grow up and, for example, will begin to treat people, or to manage airplane - I do not want to fly by these airplanes. But many think that by this time instead of them robots will work, and neither doctors, nor pilots will be required. Everything can be. But someone should construct robots. Someone should manage them. Someone should repair them.

This year the IT companies rose. The market changes, proceeding from the current situation. There is a request for high-quality services, for a high-quality communication. I know insider statistics on some companies which work online. At them everything was good in April when everything only began. Even it is more, than just well. And in May when continued to sit, rollback because we were tired of digitalization went. After all generally real people need real communication, and not everyone wants to sit constantly in network. In any case, so far – not all.

Vadim Panov: People already resource. Digitalization is just the instrument of transformation into a resource in terms of increase in profit. And this resource is already actively developed. Acquaintances had a case. They sat and discussed, suppose, purchase of chairs, having talked about it, they open the browser, and the first that it issued - the advertizing "furniture for kitchen". Accidentally, of course, but interesting story … The person was always a profit source, but thanks to digitalization use reaches qualitatively new level. The digitized person is that at whom it is visible that with taxes where he spends money, it becomes clear – it is possible to pay him less or it is impossible … It is interesting to have such information everything. The person digitized is convenient, and all states aim to digitize citizens, to deliver them under strict control. And the first it was made not by Chinese as they tell all now, and much earlier – Americans, with their system of credit stories: God forbid on it there will be at least a small speck. It is possible to wake up on a garbage can in the morning, being covered with a cardboard box.

Vadim Panov: Gradually all will give in. There is no task to run behind all with "tsifrovizator". People are interested in it. Otherwise there will be neither pension, nor salary official, nor medical insurances. Digitalization is not when from each iron you are monitored by "companion major" … People under it will subscribe. Because without digitization if they are not "in a system" - there will be no normal life also.

Vadim Panov: So far the world is not ready to implantation of chips. It how to purchase the car with the hydrogen engine, and then to find out that there are no hydrogen gas stations anywhere. If under this technology no existing electronic "iron", programs is ground, then nothing will turn out yet.

Vadim Panov: In about 10 years them it is already thrust in us.

Vadim Panov: You will have a choice - or the chip, or fly from social programs, from pension, do not get highly-paid job, etc. Nobody will force anybody, but there will be no "buns". Also with vaccines: you do not want to do vaccine two times a year, you will not work in the state corporations, you will not travel. At first the vakkart will be in phone. Even to the neighboring area you will not be able to drive without it. Vakkarta will be automatically checked at intersection of borders of regions. About need of vaccination – it is very relevant now. Next year, suppose, will discover Europe in the summer, but you will not be able to depart there if in a vakkarta there is only the Russian vaccine. It will be necessary to prick also the European vaccine, and for money.

Vadim Panov: The state has many functions which it performs. In the near future any corporation will not be able to pick up and perform all those functions which are assigned to government institutions now. First of all it is security and counteraction to violence. For example, it is possible to say that Coca Cola and Google, conditional Ford or Tesla are so known that they conquered the world, but if Americans had no 700 military bases worldwide, nothing it was. The states ensure to corporations rather quiet, normal functioning on all globe now, in exchange receiving taxes, different receipts and other is a normal symbiosis. And in the near future hardly it will change. If now a cavalry swoop to break something, everything will fall down. Corporations will not drag this load, they "are not ground" under it. We can say that outside the 21st century, but is still right that, who has more down much.

Vadim Panov: So to say, Yandex will not become Google. Yes, Yandex develops, but is serious regional structure. In America such there is a lot of. As for Sber: all thought that in the country there will be something like JP Morgan, and the second Yandex appeared. It should rejoice? The bank should be bank - financial institution, but I do not go to carry, leave it to Yandex. They are big good fellows - provide many services, and all know about them. But I will not go to put money in Yandex. As for Sber, the largest Russian bank should be engaged in other things corresponding to its status and value for national economy. It should be the powerful solid financial holding which gives money for development of other companies.

Vadim Panov: When presses, all the same all "will run" in gold. Because gold physically exists, and the bitcoin or digital money can "nullify" at any time. Promotion of electronic money is actively conducted, but if there is a gold, then only you know where it lies, it is yours. And when you keep similar amount of conditional gold in bitcoins, should remember that the Internet does not belong to you. And can get into your purse at any time and take away everything that there is. Gold has actual value, all the rest – is virtual.

Vadim Panov: It is not BAM. Silicon Valley is created not so. It is created when people come, gradually get off in one territory and begin to work. And nobody disturbs them. But we will not hold IT specialists. Roughly speaking, if for start there are Maclaren, Porsche and you - on Zhiguli, it is very difficult to explain to the mechanic why it should not go to "stable" to "Porsche" if his name is. Especially as and most it is not especially interesting to you to ride Zhiguli. It I as the person from outside argue... The best computer games of the last years from Russia are? I do not know. There is from Belarus, Ukraine, from Poland, and not one. It turns out, IT specialists work there and do not go to Silicon Valley. And in Russia where games? Which can just bring money, the speech does not go even about state security (to be fair, we will notice that in Russia the Playrix company which became one of the largest world developers of games - a comment of TAdviser was created).

Vadim Panov: It is a lot of oil.

Vadim Panov: You never can tell. I can answer - in 10 years. But you look what happens to Russian education, and will understand that it is very optimistic forecast. That there was a break, it is required to prepare it. Define strategy and make investments in break. For whose account it can be done? Who will do? From where resources? Even if money will select, from where to take people? There is such meme: "effective managers", so from them sense rather negative.

Vadim Panov: Nothing essentially new will be till the moment until it is everywhere unrolled 5G network. Because all newest and interesting should be based on more powerful information transmission system and in other iron. Develop something under present networks simply ridiculously, it is senseless to invest big money. It is all the same it will turn out as when the Blackberru company invested enormous money in the new push-button telephone, and Jobs came then, showed the smartphone with the touch screen and took away from them the market. Now modern services and technologies will improve, "will dotachivat them a file", but essentially new we will receive only on a 5G.

Vadim Panov: It is clear, the one who will control a 5G, will control the next version of a civilization. All technology developed countries perfectly understand it. At the moment Chinese go to a 5G with a big separation. Naturally, Americans, and all whom we call by "the western civilization" will not allow to control for anything another communication of the future. Repressions against the highest staff of Huawei are connected only with it, all non-market and illegal actions in terms of the principles of the WTO are connected only with it. Chinese are pressed because they became the technology leader in this direction and refused to give the developments to Americans. They will be braked until Americans do not have developments. It is business. And policy.

Vadim Panov: I cannot tell because I do not know in what status there is a development American a 5G now. Until at them is the working option of network, in the bigger territory the world of a 5G will not be too. Europe will definitely not be allowed.

Vadim Panov: China is the country with millennial history which is aimed to be the leader. That genocide which British and Americans in the 19th century arranged it was accident. But gradually, including using the Soviet Union, they could rise at first at the regional level, and now and on world. It is the country which does not want to see itself in the future a dusty pit of which dig out rare-earth metals. China offers the world the option of development, the technological and economic solutions.

Though they had very bad starting positions, it is bad with education and the industry. I remember, in the late eighties to us there came Chinese who saw things which were considered as ordinary here, as on a miracle. Now we look as at a miracle on things which for them are ordinary. It is possible to laugh somehow at quality of their TVs, cars, is what interests inhabitants, but in terms of strategic things they evolved very dramatically forward: 5G, nuclear power engineering, mechanical engineering, space.

Vadim Panov: For a long time late. In order that on Earth there were no present environmental problems, we had to step in space still in the late nineties. At least, in the Solar system. And not so that to launch the probe to Venus and so that to pull from there resources. We, mankind, already lag behind in development of space enormously. If it is not, then either war, or a pandemic. There are resources, they are limited, the number of consumers of resources grows. What it is necessary to make that resources lasted for a long time? It is arithmetics …

Vadim Panov: What money and technological solutions does it require? Enormous. Yes, I predict that all this will be, and on it in books I took away 10 years. It is necessary to get natural resources from an ocean floor.

Vadim Panov: I in detail did not describe anywhere, but mentioned it: I want that we at last departed somewhere, at least on the Solar system. Because to sit here, on Earth is only to wait for the final deadlock.

Vadim Panov: Just because we do not fly anywhere! Also I do not see premises that seriously something will change. It too expensive. It is simpler to arrange a pandemic …

Vadim Panov: I do not write a fantasy. It is the analysis. And so will be. Some smile …

Vadim Panov: With artificial intelligence not everything is unambiguous. And here Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft are already engaged in augmented reality … And others will be brought up. The jackpot will be hit by the first, of course. Already in about five years will be top-5 applications for augmented reality.

Vadim Panov:Because that artificial intelligence which exists in mass consciousness - Skaynet, etc. has nothing in common with what is now and will be in the near future. And secondly – it is simply not necessary. One of my heroes told: "if AI is sillier than me why it is necessary? And if it is more smart than me, especially, what for?"

Vadim Panov:Thanks to development of a 5G the system of augmented reality will be started soon enough. What is in your smartphone will be transferred to points. For example, the navigator, and then gradually everything that surrounds. You come to cafe, for example. You sit on stools, but it seems that on beautiful sofas. You drink from ordinary plastic mugs, but through points they seem as authentic clay mugs. You will purchase some budget small sedan for kopeks, but after drawing the QR code on it all people wearing glasses will see the sports car. You are lazy to go to sport, and all will be lazy, again we will put the QR code and here – the beautiful driven body. Even it will be painted in the mornings it is not necessary. It is possible to look as you want. It for those who go wearing spectacles. And gradually glasses will be put on by all - it is beautiful. So you see a lie, but for many it is much better, than to go without points and to see itself this. It will be necessary to force to wear nobody such glasses. We will cease to trust the eyes, more precisely to us will spit on reality. It will be "the Civilization 2.0" - augmented reality. It is my book "Arcade".

Vadim Panov:It is difficult to escape. Technical education not that would disturb, but strains the fact that it is necessary to think over everything and to prove that it can exist in reality. But on the other hand also helps: so far itself I will not believe that it is possible, I show the ideas to nobody. It leads to the fact that everything will be reliable