Oil powers
2023: US and Iran increase production in 4 years, Russia and Saudi Arabia cut
Over 4 years, the oil market has transformed into the market of one main buyer - China, which has provided the entire increase in global oil demand since 2019.
But there have also been important changes from the supply side. The main burden of responsibility for stabilizing the balance of supply and demand was assumed by OPEC and the market from a significant surplus 2020-2021 (with the accumulation of record reserves of oil and petroleum products) is moving into a balanced state, because with an increase in demand by 2 million barrels/d, supply increased by only 1.1 million barrels/d from 2019 to 2023.
The most interesting thing in the structure of oil and petroleum products producers.
By 2024, the United States reached an absolute record for oil production - 19.4 million barrels/d and plus 2.2 million barrels/d to the production level of 2019, which means that the rest of the world has reduced production/production by 1.1 million barrels/d in 4 years.
The most significant degradation in African countries, whose production decreased by 1.1 million to 7.2 million barrels/d.
The countries of the Middle East increased production by only 220 thousand to 30.4 million barrels/d, where the entire positive effect falls on Iran, whose production increased by almost 1.2 million to 4.66 million barrels/d - the level of 2018. Production in Saudi Arabia decreased by 443 thousand to 11.4 million barrels/d.
Asian countries reduced production by 0.4 million to 7.3 million barrels/d, but among them China increased production by 350 thousand to 4.2 million barrels/d.
European countries have reduced production by 235 thousand to 3.22 million barrels/d.
The CIS countries reduced production by almost 1 million to 13.75 million barrels/d, where Russia minus 0.6 million to 11.1 million barrels/d.
Significant progress in Central and South America with an increase in production of almost 1 million barrels/d, where the main contribution was made by Brazil + 0.6 million, Argentina + 0.35 million and a completely new player in the oil market - Guyana + 0.4 million barrels/d.
Thus, the main beneficiaries of the transformation of the oil market in terms of net production growth: the United States, Iran, Brazil and Guyana.
The main losers: Russia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Britain.
2022: Major oil exporting countries and their supply destinations
2021: USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia
2020: OPEC + countries produce 57% of the total
World oil production before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was 95 million barrels. per day, which was provided by countries as part of OPEC + (54 million barrels. per day, 57% of the total), US shale companies (7.8 million barrels, 8%) and all others, or "others" (33 million barrels, 35%).
At the beginning of 2020, OPEC + deliberately reduced production amid falling demand and normalized storage overflow, gradually increased volumes when demand recovered, and it accounts for almost all global idle capacity. Shale producers in the United States have turned into a key player over the past decade, adding a shocking 7 million barrels from 2009 to 2019. per day.
2019: USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Russia ranked third in terms of its share in the world oil market in 2019, maintaining the indicator unchanged compared to 2018 - at 12.1%, follows from the annual statistical review of the British company BP (Statistical Review of World Energy 2020).
According to the report, oil and condensate production in the Russian Federation in 2019 increased by 0.9%, to 11.54 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the largest share in the world market in 2019 was occupied by the United States, increasing this figure over the year by 1.7 percentage points, to 17.9%. Oil and condensate production in this country in 2019 jumped immediately by 11%, to 17.05 million barrels per day.
In turn, Saudi Arabia, although it remained in second place, lost its positions. The kingdom's market share decreased by 0.6 percentage points, to 12.4%, and production - by 3.5%, to 11.83 million.
2018
2017: Oil Production Dynamics by Region of the World
2012: There are 26 oil powers in the world
As of 2012, there are 26 "oil" powers in the world. Citi Group includes countries whose share of hydrocarbons in net exports is above 10% of GDP. In fact, most countries on the list have this figure above 20% of GDP.
Seeing these countries as attractive investment targets, the Citi Group notes that few of these countries have liquid enough financial markets to invest in them quickly and relatively safely. The leaders in the group of "oil favorites" are Russia, Saudi Arabia and Norway. The daily volume of trading in the markets of these countries exceeds $500 million.
In the first 10 years of the 2000s, the world experienced the most significant transit of wealth: the money of countries with developed markets gradually flowed to countries exporting oil. In the 2000s, they received even more funds than Arab countries during the oil boom of the 70s of the last century.
Global Gas Production
2023: 0.8% increase in gas production to 4.05 trillion cubic meters
In 2023, gas production on a global scale increased by only 0.8% - to 4.05 trillion cubic meters. For comparison, a year earlier, the figure was up to 4.02 trillion cubic meters. Such data are provided in the report of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (FSEG), released in mid-February 2024.
The study says the need for gas will continue to grow in Asian countries. In particular, in China, the demand for pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in December 2023 reached a historic maximum of 38 billion cubic meters: this is 14% more compared to December 2022. In India, gas consumption grew throughout 2023 and in December amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters, which is 24% more than a year by year.
Gas production in Russia in 2022-2023. decreased against the background of falling exports of pipeline gas to the European Union. In 2023, the figure decreased by 5.5% compared to the previous year - to 636.7 billion cubic meters. It is said that in 2023, gas consumption in the EU and the UK decreased by 9% compared to 2022 and amounted to 380.85 billion cubic meters.
The study notes that the period of high gas prices in the European Union began in the fall of 2021. This is due to problems with filling underground storage facilities after a record gas withdrawal in the winter of 2020-2021. In addition, there was an energy shortage due to a decrease in wind power generation amid calm weather. By December 2021, spot gas prices in the EU reached an all-time high, exceeding $2,200 per 1000 cubic meters, and in March 2022 set a new record of $3,900 per 1000 cubic meters.
It is expected that in 2024 gas production in the world will grow by 3% compared to 2023 - up to 4.16 trillion cubic meters. The strongest, according to the FSEG forecast, production will increase in African countries - by 5% to 264 billion cubic meters - and the CIS (including Russia) - by 4% to 817 billion cubic meters. In North America, this figure will be 1.31 trillion cubic meters (+ 2%), in the Middle East - 723 billion cubic meters (+ 3[1]
Oil production and export in Russia
UAE oil production
The UAE is accelerating a plan to boost its oil production capacity by trying to profit from its crude reserves before the energy transition begins, sources said in September 2022.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., which pumps nearly all of the UAE's oil, wants to be able to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2025. This is earlier than the previously announced goal of 2030.
Oil production in Venezuela
Main article: Oil production in Venezuela
Nigeria oil production
Main article: Oil production in Nigeria
The largest companies in the oil and gas market
Natural gas reserves
Major Gas Trading Routes
Gas production and export in Russia
Gas production in Ukraine
Main article: Gas market in Ukraine
Oil and gas production in Saudi Arabia
Main article: Oil and gas production in Saudi Arabia
U.S. oil production
Main Article: U.S. Oil Production
Oil and gas production in Iran
Qatar gas production
For May 2020, Qatar - the world's largest LNG producer - does not intend to cut supplies due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and plans to significantly increase capacity in the coming years, said Minister of Energy and Chief Executive Officer of state-owned Qatar Petroleum Saad Sherida al-Kaabi.
Qatar Petroleum plans to increase production 1.5 times by 2025, to 110 million tons, and almost twice - by 2027 (up to 126 million tons). To do this, the company launches the North Field field, where 80 exploration wells have already been drilled. Contracts for the construction of 100 LNG tankers have been concluded for the new gas.
Gas production in Africa
Mauritania
In October 2019, the American Kosmos Energy opened one of the largest natural gas deposits on the Mauritanian shelf.
The American oil and gas company claims that the reserves of the field amount to approximately 1.5 trillion cubic meters of gas. See Mauritania for details.
Mozambique: Plans for Gas Production and LNG Infrastructure
On October 8, 2019, it was announced that US energy giant Exxon Mobil would invest in a gas production project in Mozambique.
According to the project, the northeast coast of Mozambique will create infrastructure for the production and sale of LNG. According to Exxon estimates, the development of deposits will cost $30 billion.
The gas fields are located in the province of Kabu Delgadu, where extremist groups have been active for the past two years.
Equatorial Guinea
In November 2019, the Italian company Saipem received a contract in Equatorial Guinea worth $100 million for the construction of a 70-kilometer underwater pipeline connecting the Alen field with the Punta Europa oil terminal.
Gas supplies for the project being undertaken by Noble Energy are expected to begin in early 2021, Oil Minister Gabriel Obiang Lima said.
The pipeline will serve offshore gas fields and have a capacity of 27 million cubic meters of gas per day.
Production, import and export of oil and gas in Europe
Oil and gas production in Turkey
Main article: Oil and gas production in Turkey
Oil consumption
According to the results of 2017, the demand for oil in the world increased by 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd), and in 2018 - by 1.3 mbd.
In 2018, the average price of oil was $72 per barrel, by September 2019 the average value was around $65. The cheaper oil is the result of a decrease in demand for it as a result of a general deterioration in the macroeconomic climate and an aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.
According to the International Energy Agency, in the first half of 2019, the growth rate of oil demand fell to 0.5 mbd per year. At the same time, restrictions on oil production agreed by OPEC member countries have not yet contributed to a significant increase in its price. Despite the decline in oil production in Venezuela and Iran, global hydrocarbon production is stable, as production has sharply increased by the United States.
In April 2020, global oil demand fell by a record 9.3 million barrels per day.
In March 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, oil production is growing by inertia, but consumption has collapsed sharply.
Theories of Oil Formation
Biogenic theory
Biogenic theory prevails among specialists in the world. It states that oil and natural gas were formed from the remains of plant and animal organisms in a multi-stage, millions of years-long process. According to this theory, one of the founders of which was Mikhaylo Lomonosov, oil reserves are irreplaceable and all its deposits will someday run out. Irreplaceable, of course, given the transience of human civilizations: the first alphabet and nuclear energy separate no more than four thousand years, while millions will be required to form new oil from the current organic remains. This means that our not too distant descendants will have to do without oil, and then without gas...[2]
In 1888, German scientists Gefer and Engler put experiments that proved the possibility of obtaining oil from animal products. When distilling fish oil at a temperature of 400 ° C and a pressure of about 1 MPa, they isolated extreme hydrocarbons, paraffin and lubricating oils from it. Later, in 1919, Academician Zelinsky from organic sludge from the bottom of Lake Balkhash, mainly of plant origin, received raw resin, coke and gases - methane, CO, hydrogen and hydrogen sulfide during distillation. Then he extracted gasoline, kerosene and heavy oils from the resin, having experimentally proved that oil can be obtained from organic of vegetable origin.
Abiogenic theory
Proponents of abiogenic theory are optimistic about the future. They believe that we will have enough oil and gas reserves for many more centuries. Dmitry Ivanovich Mendeleev, while in Baku, once learned from the geologist German Abikh that oil deposits are geographically very often confined to discharges - a special type of fracture of the earth's crust. At the same time, the famous Russian chemist was convinced that hydrocarbons (oil and gas) are formed from inorganic compounds deep underground. Mendeleev believed that during mountain-building processes on the cracks that cut the earth's crust, surface water seeps into the depths of the Earth to metal masses and reacts with iron carbides, forming metal oxides and hydrocarbons. Then hydrocarbons rise through cracks into the upper layers of the earth's crust and form oil and gas deposits. According to abiogenic theory, the formation of new oil will not have to wait millions of years at all, it is a completely replenished resource. Supporters of the abiogenic theory are confident that new fields are waiting at great depths, and the oil reserves explored at the moment may well be insignificant compared to those still unknown.
Spectroscopic studies have shown that in the atmosphere of Jupiter and other giant planets, as well as their satellites and in the gas shells of comets, the simplest hydrocarbons are present. This means that if in nature there are processes for the synthesis of organic substances from inorganic, nothing prevents the formation of hydrocarbons from carbides on Earth. Soon other facts were discovered that did not agree with classical biogenic theory. In a number of oil wells, oil reserves unexpectedly began to recover.
One of the first such paradoxes was discovered in an oil field in the Tersko-Sunzhensky district, near Grozny. The first wells here were drilled back in 1893, in places of natural oil shows.
In 1895, one of the wells from a depth of 140 m gave a grandiose oil fountain. After 12 days of flowing, the walls of the oil barn collapsed and the flow of oil flooded the towers of nearby wells. Only three years later, the fountain was tamed, then it dried up and the pumping station was transferred from the fountain method of oil production.
By the beginning of World War II, all wells were heavily flooded, and some of them were mothballed. After the onset of peace, production was restored, and, to everyone's surprise, almost all high-water wells began to produce anhydrous oil! In an incomprehensible way, the wells received a "second wind." After another half century, the situation repeated itself. By the beginning of the Chechen wars, the wells were again heavily flooded, their production rates decreased significantly, and during the wars they were not operated. When production was resumed, production rates increased significantly. Moreover, the first small wells began to pump oil back to the earth's surface through the annulus. Proponents of the biogenic theory were perplexed, while "inorganic" easily explained this paradox by the fact that in this place oil is of inorganic origin.
Something similar has happened at one of the world's largest Romashkin oil field, which has been in development for more than 60 years. According to Tatar geologists, 710 million tons of oil could be extracted from the wells of the field. However, to date, almost 3 billion tons of oil have already been produced here! The classical laws of oil and gas geology cannot explain the observed facts. Some wells seemed to pulsate: the drop in production rates suddenly gave way to their long-term growth. Pulsating rhythm was noted in many other wells in the territory of the former USSR.
It is impossible not to mention the field "White Tiger" on the sea shelf of Vietnam. From the very beginning of oil production, "black gold" was extracted exclusively from sedimentary strata, here the sedimentary strata (about 3 km) were drilled through, entered the foundation of the earth's crust, and the well fontanated. Moreover, according to the geologists' estimate, about 120 million tons could be extracted from the well, but even after this volume was produced, oil continued to come from the bowels with good pressure. The field raised a new question for geologists: does oil accumulate only in sedimentary rocks or can the basement rocks be its reservoir? If there is also oil in the foundation, then the world's oil and gas reserves may be much larger than we expect.
{{quote 'What is the reason for the "second breath" of many wells, inexplicable from the point of view of the classical geology of oil and gas? "In the Tersko-Sunzhensky field and some others, oil can be formed from organic matter, but not in millions of years, as provided for by classical geology, but in a matter of years," said Viktor Gavrilov, head of the Department of Geology of the Russian State University of Oil and Gas named after I.M. Gubkina. - The process of its formation can be compared with artificial distillation of organic matter, similar to the experiments of Hefer and Zelinsky, but carried out by nature itself. This rate of oil formation became possible due to the geological features of the area, where, together with the lower part of the lithosphere, part of the precipitation is drawn into the upper mantle of the Earth. There, under conditions of high temperatures and pressures, rapid processes of destruction of organic matter and the synthesis of new hydrocarbon molecules occur[3]
According to Professor Gavrilov, another mechanism operates at the Romashkinskoye field. Here, in the thickness of crystalline rocks of the earth's crust, in the foundation, there is a powerful layer of high-alumina gneiss more than 3 billion years old. These ancient rocks contain a lot (up to 15%) of graphite, from which hydrocarbons are formed under high temperatures in the presence of hydrogen. Faults and fractures raise them into the porous sedimentary layer of the crust.}}
Oil reserves
Countries with the largest confirmed oil reserves
Exploration of new oil reserves
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Main Article: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Reference Oil Mixtures
American WTI
The abbreviation WTI hides the full name of the oil mixture - West Texas Intermediate. It received its name from the place of production - the American state of Texas.
A distinctive feature of the WTI brand is its "lightness" and low sulfur content. According to the methodology of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the density of WTI is 39.6 degrees (the larger the degree, the smaller the density), which makes it lighter than water, which is taken as the reference point.
WTI became known in the American market in the early 1980s - after the liberalization of energy legislation. According to Energy and Capital, a consulting firm, up to 30 percent of oil in the United States in the early 1980s belonged to WTI, whose advantages include high quality and the relative low cost of delivering[4] consumers].
North Sea Brent
The Brent brand arose after the start of development of the large field of the same name in the North Sea, and a little later they began to call all the oil coming from Northern Europe. API estimates the density of the European oil mixture at 38. This is slightly worse than WTI, but Brent also loses in terms of sulfur content, the level of which reaches 0.4 percent compared to 0.2-0.3 percent of the American competitor.
It was Brent and WTI that was destined to become the most popular oil mixtures. This is also due to the history of global commodity trade, which developed mainly USA in and. To Europe American traders focused on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and they were more comfortable trading local oil. On the London contrary, stock exchanges from all over Europe settled, as a result of which the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) became the center of Brent sales.
Quality of mixtures in oil refining
Density ("gravity") and "sulfur content" determine the future fate of oil. The lighter the liquid hydrocarbon feedstock and the less sulfur in it, the better it is suitable for the production of gasoline and kerosene, which increases its cost. Thus, in ideal conditions, WTI should cost a little more than Brent, but in the late 2000s, traders completely stopped paying attention to the quality of oil.
Oil price dynamics
Main article: Oil prices
Oil tankers
Oil and Gas Drilling Rigs
Reduction of global oil and gas drilling rigs by 3.1% to 1,739 in 2023
By the end of 2023, the number of operating oil and gas drilling rigs on a global scale decreased by 55, or 3.1%, to 1,739 units. This is evidenced by the data of the American oil and gas service company Baker Hughes, released in early January 2024.
During 2023, in general, the number of operating drilling rigs in the world decreased by 95 complexes, or 5.2%. According to published figures, in the United States, the figure at the end of 2023 increased by four units - to 623 installations, while in Canada their number decreased by 36 - to 161 units. The number of rigs in Europe increased by four to 122. In the Middle East, the figure decreased by 11 - to 336 complexes. In the Asia-Pacific region, the value decreased by four - to 214, in Africa - by 11, to 109. In Latin America, the number of installations decreased by one - to 174.
At the same time, in January 2024, the number of operating oil and gas drilling rigs in the world increased - primarily thanks to Canada. The number of such complexes reached 1784. In Canada, their number increased by 37 - to 198, which is the maximum since February 2023. At the same time, in the United States, the number of installations in January 2024 decreased by 2 compared to the previous month and amounted to 621.
The number of drilling complexes in the Middle East during January 2024 increased by 12 - to 348, which is the maximum value since May 2020. In Africa, an increase of 2 units was recorded - up to 111. At the same time, in Latin America, the indicator decreased by 4 - to 170 complexes. In Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the number of installations remained unchanged at 122 and 214, respectively.
The average monthly number of operating oil and gas drilling rigs in the world in 2023, according to Interfax, increased for the third year in a row. The figure rose to 1814, up from 1,747 in 2022.[5]
Oil leaks
Over 30 years, 66 major oil and petroleum product leaks have occurred in the world with a total spill of 3427 thousand tons. TOP-3 cases:
1) Spill of Iraqi oil reserves during the Gulf War (820 thousand);
2) Fire at Deepwater Horizon (627,000);
3) Spill at the fields of Uzbekistan (285 thousand).
In Russia, 9 such cases were reported, the largest - an accident on the pipeline in Rep. Komi in 1994, when, according to various estimates, from 100 to 220 thousand tons of oil got into the soil as a result of several breakthroughs.
See also
Notes
- ↑ %). The growth of gas production in the world in 2024 will accelerate
- ↑ Oil is alive and dead: where does black gold come from
- ↑ " Oil is alive and dead: where does black gold come from
- ↑ [http://lenta.ru/articles/2013/07/30/oil/ oil to
- ↑ The number of oil and gas drilling in the world in January increased at the expense of Canada
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