Oil exports from Russia

The main articles are:

• Russia's Foreign Trade
• Oil production in Russia

Oil prices

Main article: Oil prices

How oil is exported

Export via ports

2024

Russia successfully replaced sanctioned oil tankers

By July 2024, dozens of sanctioned Russian oil tankers are idling around the world.

In total, 53 vessels related to Russian trade fell under the sanctions. Many of them stand off the coast of Russia, China and Turkey.

But Russia's efforts to strengthen its oil tanker fleet in the first half of 2024 helped offset the impact of Western sanctions, according to the KSE Institute.

Russia's fleet is growing despite Western sanctions. Moscow's ability to transport oil on old uninsured ships has grown by 70% since last year, the report said.

Reduced cost of oil transportation by sea

Russian oil supplies in July 2024 continue to fall in price, despite the so-called. "Sanctions" of Western countries.

According to Argus Media Ltd., the price of Urals oil delivery to Asian consumers from the port of Novorossiysk fell to its lowest level since October 2023.

Lower prices allow Russian companies to receive more income from each barrel of oil.

Greek shipowners reduced the transportation of Russian oil

The number of cargoes of Russian oil transported on Greek ships decreased by January 2024 Ministry of Finance USA since it began to tighten sanctions against. Russia

Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea could also possibly deter Greek owners.

2023

UAE, China and Greece are key carriers of Russian oil

Ships registered in Greece in November 2023 transported 16 million barrels of Russian oil and lost 28 million barrels transported by tankers registered in the UAE and 23 million barrels transported by ships registered in China and Hong Kong, according to an FT analysis based on ship correspondence addresses.

China oil exports via Arctic cut flight time by 30%

Russia In July 2023, it again sends oil through Arctic to speed up delivery to. China This route reduces flight time by 30%.

USA and their allies are trying to counter it. Organizations, UN including climate change the intergovernmental body on, say it "could have negative consequences for the region, including increased emissions and the threat to marine ecosystems."

Russia for the first time conducted thin-hull oil tankers through the Arctic

In September 2023, Russia first conducted thin-hull oil tankers through the Arctic. In August, the two tankers were granted permission to complete a route along Russia's northern coast despite not being so-called "ice class" tankers, which are reinforced to operate in harsher conditions.

Rising shadow fleet for exports

The Russian shadow fleet in February 2023 is manifested thanks to data on empty oil tankers: first, a small armada of oil tankers appeared to help Russia defeat sanctions. Now hundreds of fuel vessels are taking steps to hide from prying eyes where they are headed.

A record number of middle-class vessels - 311 without cargo or destination - were seen, compared with 14 vessels on average at any time before this year, according to Kpler data compiled by Bloomberg.

Before the conflict in Ukraine, at least 70% of all Russian exports were carried out on tankers registered in unfriendly countries. In January 2023, the estimated share of unfriendly countries significantly decreased to 40%, the UAE - 15%, China - 13%, and the rest, i.e. almost a third, is the shadow Russian fleet or unaccounted owners. Before the Western conflict with Russia, the unaccounted for and shadow fleet averaged 18-20%.

To combat illegal sanctions in the oil trade, ships are forced to use spoofing to distort their location data in the AIS system.

2013: Baltic and Black Sea - major export ports

The basis of oil exports from Russia for 2013 was transshipment precisely through seaports, from where tankers transported fuel around the world. The country has developed two main export centers - the Baltic and the ports of the Black Sea.

2011

In 2011, Transneft transported 43 million tons of oil towards Novorossiysk, and more than 71 million tons towards Primorsk (Leningrad Region). Approximately 15 million tons a year goes to the Far East to the port of Kozmino. In 2012, oil began shipping via the Baltic Pipeline System-2 with an end point in the port of Ust-Luga (Leningrad Region) with a capacity of 30 million tons. True, one hundred percent loading of Ust-Luga in 2012 should not be expected - in 10 months a little less than 11 million tons of oil were transferred through the port^[1]

Pipelines

"Friendship" to Europe

Main article: Druzhba oil pipeline

Another important export channel is pipelines. For half a century now, the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was conceived to transport oil to the countries of the social block.

According to 2011 data, Druzhba helps send more than 60 million tons of oil to Europe annually.

ESPO to China

Main article: ESPO Pipeline

Railway

In Russia, oil travels not only by pipelines, but also by rail, but the volume of such traffic is gradually decreasing (January 2013), and oil in tanks, judging by Transneft's data, has not been exported since 2009^[1]

Traders

2023

Litasco

Main article: Litasco

Litasco is the main trading company of Lukoil.

Murtaza Lahani

Trading tycoon, oil trader Murtaza Lahani in October 2023 was called Bloomberg a key export figure Rosneft by the agency "" under Western sanctions. Lahani's lawyers deny any role to trade in Russian oil at this time.

A veteran of oil deals from Baghdad to Caracas, the Karachi native has made a name for himself by navigating the toughest jurisdictions. Now, allied with Sechin, he could help set up a network of oil traders and shipping companies to funnel Russian barrels around the world amid an uncertain Western response - sanctions and price caps designed to limit revenues, along with calls from Washington to continue shipping.

Tejarinaft FZCO and 7 other new traders

In 2023, one of the largest suppliers of Russian oil and fuel oil was Tejarinaft FZCO, registered in Dubai in 2022 and practically unknown earlier. Tejarinaft, which means "oil trade" in Arabic, was engaged in the supply of Russian grades of Urals and Espo oil, mainly from Rosneft. The company supplies Urals oil to India and Turkey, and Espo to China.

Here are some more new names in the oil trading:

• Elbrus General Trading - the main activity is petrochemicals.

• Everest Energy - in 2024 announced itself as a supplier of Urals oil to Turkey.

• GMS Trading - established in 2023 and carrying out regular oil supplies from the Black Sea ports.

• Petroruss - which carried out several oil supplies to India and China, and previously was engaged in the supply of petroleum products in the Baltic region.

• Bellatrix Energy is a company registered Hong Kong in 2020, the only director of which is citizen Azerbaijan Bilal Aliyev. Bellatrix is engaged in the trade in oil and petrochemical products, has repeatedly supplied oil from Rosneft, a significant part of which was sent to India.

• Sunrise X Trading, a company that hit the market around the same time as Bellatrix, also specializes in supplies from Rosneft. Registered in Hong Kong in June 2022.

• The Geneva trader continuing to supply Russian oil is Paramount Energy. The company ships several batches of Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean (Espo) oil destined for China every month from the eastern port of Kozmino. Paramount, owned by Dutch trading veteran Niels Troost.

2022: Six new traders replace Trafigura and Vitol

Six little-known companies became the new kings of Russian oil in December 2022, they entered the league of the largest commodity traders in the world.

Now Russian customs data provided by Bloomberg for the last four weeks of 2022 shows that six companies based in Hong Kong and Dubai handled about 1.4 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day in total.

The largest of these was Nord Axis Ltd., which purchased 521,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December, all from Rosneft. Nord Axis, registered in February 2022 in Hong Kong, was unknown in the oil market until July, when it was announced ​​pokupatelem Trafigura Group's stake in Rosneft's flagship oil project Vostok Oil.

Other buyers include Dubai-based Tejarinaft FZCO, which bought 244,000 barrels per day from Rosneft in December.

Some of them were experienced traders even before the conflict, such as Concept Oil Services Ltd. in Hong Kong, founded in 2003 by citizen Latvia Michael Zeligmans to trade oil in, and To Europe Russia countries of the former Soviet Union, according to court filings Britain in 2013. During the reporting period, it pumped just over 152,000 barrels of Russian oil per day.

Similarly, Coral Energy DMCC bought 121,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in the last four weeks of December from Surgutneftegas PJSC. Coral, owned by Tahir Garaev, began operations a decade ago as a fuel oil trader, its website said.

Others have a shorter track record. The third largest trader is Dubai-based QR Trading DMCC, which bought 199,000 barrels per day from Surgutneftegaz in December.

The fifth largest trader is Bellatrix Energy Ltd., a Hong Kong-based company, prior to the conflict over To Ukraine an unknown oil market. According to customs data, owned by a citizen Azerbaijan named Bilal Aliyev, according to corporate documents, she bought 151,000 barrels a day from several Russian oil companies in December.

In March 2023, the world's largest oil traders, such as Vitol Group, Trafigura Group, said that after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, they still avoid working with Russian oil and currently have no plans to return to this business.

Insurance

2024: Only 16% of Russian oil exports insured with IG in April

International Group - an organization that occupies a central place in the insurance industry of Western countries, in April 2024 stated that the so-called. "Restrictions on the price of Russian oil" imposed by the G7 countries are becoming more and more unenforceable.

Only 16% of all Russian oil flows were insured by IG in April 2024.

Russia has successfully steered its fleet away from Western oversight.

2023

Hundreds of ships carrying oil from Russia refuse insurance at P&I Clubs, some use Russian insurance system

As of August 2023, the fleet serving oil exports from Russia has hundreds of ships around the world, many of which are owned by companies in Greece, India, the UAE and Turkey. Many have successfully skirted illegal Western sanctions, often dropping insurance at P&I Clubs - global chains that insure about 90% of global merchant shipping. Some use a parallel Russian insurance system created after the start of a special operation in Ukraine.

In August, almost three-quarters of all sea transportation of oil from the Russian Federation was carried out without Western insurance, which the West tried to use as a lever to comply with its so-called "price ceiling."

Russian companies are successfully circumventing restrictions, which allows them to sell more oil at prices close to international ones.

India's Gatik Ship Management stripped of insurance for breaching "price cap"

Gatik Ship Management, registered in India, which became a major oil carrier from Russia last year, lost international insurance due to a violation of the "price ceiling" mechanism, Bloomberg reported in April 2023, citing a source familiar with the situation.

The Mumbai-headquartered company, which few knew about until 2022, has assembled a fleet of 48 tankers with a total capacity of more than 30 million barrels and a value of $1.4 billion.

57% of oil exports are insured in unfriendly countries

According to Bloomberg, as of March 2023, Russia still relies on Western insurers who insure more than half of the tanker fleet exporting its oil, and representatives of the country's energy industry express concern about the current situation.

Dependence gives the West leverage over Russia's oil flows.

Russia seeks to create an independent maritime insurance system.

Until March 2022, on average, 75-80% of Russian oil export went through insurance companies in the jurisdiction of unfriendly countries, and in January 2023, 57%, and the share fell sharply from November 2022 (it was 72%). As a result, at least half of exports for February 2023 are still under EU and US rules and cannot be more expensive than the price ceiling.

US and EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector

Main article: US and EU sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector

Export of petroleum products

Main article: Export of petroleum products from Russia

2024

Turkey continues to purchase oil in Russia

Resumption of oil supplies to Cuba

At the end of March 2024, a Russian fuel tanker will dock east of Havana in a welcome relief for Cuban officials trying to thwart growing unrest over persistent power outages.

About 715,000 barrels of crude oil are due to arrive at the port of Matanzas. This is the first batch of Russian oil in a year. To cube

Havana is turning back toward Moscow as other allies cut supplies.

The island is experiencing one of the deepest crises since the collapse of the USSR.

Maintaining high exports to India due to oil re-export to Western countries

Using the example of Russian energy supplies to the EU, the United States and Britain through, and India Turkey other intermediaries, Russia's enemies have successfully established a mechanism to increase producer costs. In their media, there is harsh rhetoric about sanctions, and in fact energy supplies enter the European, Asian and American markets through more complex delivery schemes.

Statistics show that Russian suppliers as a whole retained their market share, but their costs increased.

India in June 2024 imported a record volume of Russian Urals oil - 1.6 million barrels. per day, Kpler reported. The total volume of oil supplies from Russia showed the second largest result in history - 2.13 million barrels. per day.

It was higher only in May 2023, in which it amounted to 2.15 million barrels per day. At the same time, imports of Far Eastern oil varieties from Russia, such as ESPO (ESPO) or Sokol, which resumed after a short break, "remain lower than the average in 2023."

2023

Export of 240 million tons of crude oil. Share of India and China 78%

In 2021, Russia exported 263.6 million tons of crude oil (12.8% share in global supplies), in 2022 - 264.7 million tons (12.4% share of the global export market), and in 2023 - 240.8 million tons (11.3% share) according to BP.

How did the structure of exports change, which markets were lost and which were seized?

• China: Russia's share in oil supplies from all suppliers to China was in 2021 15.1, in 2022 - 17%, in 2023 - 19%
• India: 2.1 - > 16 - > 35.4%
• Japan: 3.6 - > 1.4 - > 0.1%
• Singapore: 1.3 - > 0.2 - > 0.7%
• Other Asian countries: 3.5 - > 1.5 - > 0.3%
• CIS countries: 98.4 - > 98.1 - > 99.8%
• USA: 3.3%, in 2022 - 0.3%, in 2023 - 0%
• Countries of the North (excluding the USA), Central and South America: 3.4 - > 2.9 - > 1.5%
• Europe: 29.6 - > 23.3 - > 7.4%
• Middle East and Africa: There were no direct supplies, although they were actually, but a shadow fleet and for the purpose of re-export to Europe.
• Australia, New Zealand: 2 - > 3.9 - > 0%.

The American market is completely lost, like Australia and Japan, the presence in Europe has been reduced by 4 times (and even then at the expense of Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria), the CIS market has been preserved, China has given Russia less than a fifth of its oil purchases, and the most aggressive expansion in India, where Russia has become the dominant supplier.

How has the regional structure of Russian crude oil supplies changed?

In 2021, almost 54% of all Russian crude oil exports went to Europe, in 2022 the share decreased to 44.2% and only to 13.5% in 2023, Spydell Finance wrote.

India and China together accounted for 32% of Russian oil exports in 2021, 46.5% in 2022, and 78.4% in 2023.

41.7% of all exports went to countries neutral to Russia in 2021, 54.6% in 2022, 86.4% in 2023, and the rest to Europe, where over 70% goes to Turkey.

The rescue of Russian exports was provided primarily by China and India, because oil supplies from Russia increased from 84.2 million tons in 2021 to 189 million tons in 2023.

Britain bought £2.2bn of oil products from Russian oil

In 2023, Britain purchased £2.2bn of petroleum products made from Russian oil, despite its own sanctions. This became known in early March 2024. Read more here.

Oil exports from Russia in the eastern direction for the year increased to 85%

Oil exports from Russia eastward in 2023 increased to 85% from 40% in 2021. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak spoke about this during the "Open Dialogue" in the Federation Council on February 6, 2024.

To preserve the export potential of our country in the conditions of the actions of unfriendly countries, we have to work more with friendly countries... In 2021, I take it for the basic one, we had the same export as now - about 230 million tons of oil. Of these, somewhere around 60% was supplied westbound and 40% eastbound... In the current conditions, we have 15% of the western direction and 85% of the eastern direction, - said Novak (quoted by Vedomosti).

Oil exports from Russia in the eastern direction in 2023 increased to 85%

According to him, an increase in oil supplies in the western direction is not possible without changing the geopolitical situation. The Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation also cited data according to which the export of Russian oil in 2023 decreased by 3.3% compared to 2022 and amounted to 234.3 million tons. According to the presentation of the Ministry of Energy, 193 million tons of oil were delivered to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in 2023, thus, the APR accounted for 82% of Russian oil exports, Interfax notes.

At the end of January 2024, Alexander Novak said that Russia was ready to supply gas to Europe by different routes, including after the end of the gas transit contract through Ukraine this year.

Volumes were diversified in the markets of friendly countries. Also during 2023, we contributed to reducing discounts to respond to challenges in connection with the introduction of sanctions - by the end of 2023, the discount decreased significantly, Novak said in the Federation Council at a meeting with senators on February 6, 2024.[2]

Growth in oil supplies from Russia to China by 24% to $60.6 billion

Russia exported 107 million tons of oil to China in 2023 by $60.644 billion, which is 24% more than in 2022. This allowed the Russian Federation to become the largest oil supplier to the PRC, the Main Customs Administration of China reported. Russia came out on top for the first time since 2018, ahead of Saudi Arabia. Chinese oil imports rose by nearly a quarter in 2023. The figures show the ineffectiveness of the so-called "price cap" introduced by the West against Russia.

In June 2023, the volume of oil supplies from Russia reached 10.5 million tons, an increase of more than 40% compared to the same period last year.

Earlier in March 2023, China purchased a record volume of oil in Russia. Chinese state-owned oil giants and large private refiners are pushing out small buyers in the fight for cheap Russian oil. Hengli, Shenghong joined the purchases of Russian oil.

Growth of oil exports to India to $37 billion

Sales of crude oil from Russia to India in 2023 amounted to a record $37 billion, CNN reported.

India has increased purchases of Russian oil by more than 13 times compared to 2021.

Some of the oil was processed by India and then exported to the United States in the form of oil products worth more than $1 billion.

Europe continues to buy oil from Russia through Turkey

The United States for the first time since April 2022 began to officially purchase Russian oil

For the first time in a year and a half, the United States began to officially purchase Russian oil. This is evidenced by the data of foreign trade statistics of the United States published in January 2024. Read more here.

Supplies of oil and petroleum products to Europe decreased from 40% to 4% of exports

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak: Russia expects that the supply of oil and petroleum products to Europe by the end of 2023 will amount to no more than 4-5% of the total export volume.

According to him, if earlier about 40-45% of oil products and oil from the total export volume were supplied to Europe, then "by the end of this year we expect that this will be no more than 4-5%."

"The main partners of Russia in the current situation were China, whose share grew to about 45-50%, and India." According to the Deputy Prime Minister, there were almost no supplies to India before. The total share of supplies to this country in two years amounted to about 40%.

Pentagon acquires oil from Russia despite US sanctions

Allegedly "banned" Russian oil falls into the Pentagon supply chain. After multiple owner changes, the fuel is sold to a Greek refinery that serves the U.S. military in Greece, an audit by The Washington Post in November 2023 showed.

Dynamics of energy exports by regions of the world and the list of the largest buyers

According to the IEA, Russia's revenues from oil exports in October 2023 decreased compared to the previous peak amid falling world oil prices and the introduction of US sanctions against ships that violate the Western price limit.

In October, the country received $18.34 billion from exports of oil and petroleum products, which is $25 million less than in September. Nevertheless, Russia's monthly revenue from oil sales abroad remained at the highest level since October 2022. The price of Russian oil in October remained above the illegal price limit of the G7 countries.

Price rise offset by sharp drop in sea deliveries

By August 2023, the drop in sales of "tanker" oil from Russia was very dramatic - almost a quarter of the physical volume lost in comparison with the record May 2023, where China reduced purchases very much (by 0.4 million barrels/d), India also reduced purchases by 0.3 million barrels/d and Turkey halved.

As a result, deliveries to China, India and Turkey at the beginning of August amount to only 2.4 million barrels/d.

It turns out that the entire positive effect of price increases since the beginning of July has been neutralized by the fall in physical exports.

Back in June, the total "official" export amounted to 3.5-3.6 million barrels/d and collapsed to 2.9-3 million by early August, plus up to 0.2 million more smuggling, but does not significantly affect the total cash flow.

We are talking about the loss of 1 million barrels of physical exports from May 2023 and about 0.4-0.5 million barrels per day of export losses compared to the beginning of 2023.

In early August 2023, sea exports are approximately 0.2 million barrels/d less than in January-February 2022, and even the loss of pipeline exports of 0.6 million barrels/d.

At this time, China, India and Turkey together occupy 88% of the structure of "tanker" crude oil exports.

Growth of oil and petroleum products exports to $15.3 billion in July

According to the IEA, Russia's oil export revenues in July 2023 rose to the highest level since November 2022, as the oil price exceeded the limit that the G7 countries tried to set.

In July, Russia received $15.3 billion from oil and fuel exports, which is almost 20% more than in the previous month.

Nevertheless, according to the IEA, Russia's oil export revenues fell by more than a fifth compared to the previous year.

Which countries buy fossil fuels from Russia

For the period from January 1 to June 16, 2023, the most Russian fuel bought: a China total of 30 billion, and dollars for the most part it was crude oil. About 18 billion dollars paid, Russia European Union 15 -. India

In general, compared to the peak figures of March 2022, Russia's revenues from energy exports fell by 60% - from 1.2 billion dollars a day to 442 million.

China, India, Turkey, UAE and Singapore - 'launder' and resell Russian oil

China, India, Turkey, the UAE and Singapore - "launder" Russian oil, mixing it with non-Russian crude oil and re-exporting it around the world, including to countries that set price caps and embargoes on Russian oil.

Sea imports of Russian crude oil to China, India, Turkey, the UAE and Singapore by May 2023 increased by 140% in physical terms, or 182% in value terms since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

The total cost of imports in 12 months was $82 billion, with five countries accounting for 70% of Russian crude exports since the beginning of the conflict.

The EU, G7 and Australia increased imports of petroleum products from China by 94%, India by 2%, Turkey by 43%, the UAE by 23% and Singapore by 33%.

According to Moscow analytics firm Kpler, May 2023 accounted for 46% of Indian oil imports, a stunning jump from less than 2% before the conflict began on. In absolute To Ukraine terms, May was a record.

Of course, over the past year, China has also begun to consume much more Russian oil, and its imports have reached record levels, but it is India, the US strategic partner, that has come to the fore to support the Russian economy.

Saudi Arabia buys Russian oil in record quantities and sells it to Europe

Saudi Arabia buys Russian oil in record quantities and sells it to the European market, Reuters wrote in April 2023.

Pakistan starts buying oil from Russia

In April 2023, Pakistan placed the first discounted oil order in Russia under a bilateral agreement between the two countries, Pakistan's Minister of State for Oil Musadiq Malik said. As expected, supplies will reach 100 thousand barrels per day. According to Malik, the first tanker with Russian oil will arrive at the port of Karachi in May. Oil delivered from Russia will be processed at Pakistani enterprises.

Oil supplies to Turkey through Azerbaijan for processing and sale to the EU

A significant amount of Russian hydrocarbons still enter the European market, Politico wrote in March 2023.

One of the routes to Europe passes through Azerbaijan, which is the starting point of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

The Finnish analytical center CREA at the end of December 2022 announced that a new route of Russian oil to the EU through Turkey appears, where it is processed into non-sanctioned oil products and sold to other countries.

On March 20, 2023, the British non-governmental organization Global Witness released a report stating that Russian oil is systematically sold at prices much higher than the $60 ceiling introduced by the G7 countries in December 2022.

Oil revenue slump in February

Average sea exports in February - 7.32 million barrels per day

In February 2023, offshore oil exports from Russia proved sustainable despite new EU restrictions. Russia It exported an average of 7.32 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products, according to Kpler. This corresponds to the volume of supplies in December and only 9% below the historical maximum reached in January.

Pumping millions of tons of oil daily to tankers of other states off the coast of Greece

Bloomberg on February 27, 2023 reported that near the coast Greece in neutral waters, Russian oil tankers pump millions of barrels of Russian oil daily to tankers of other states for further delivery, bypassing all sanctions. EU

The Greek authorities clarify that all events take place in neutral waters, where the possibility of their intervention is excluded.

Coming out on top for oil supplies to China

The flow of Russian oil to China by mid-February 2023 reached the highest level since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the resumption of work of the world's largest importer of energy resources is gaining pace.

Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become China's largest oil supplier in the first two months of 2023. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in January-February, supplies from Russia amounted to 15.68 million tons, or 1.94 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 23.8% more than 1.57 million bpd for the corresponding period of 2022. In 2022, Russia was the second largest oil supplier to China, shipping 86.2 million tons.

Russia successfully uses shadow infrastructure to transport and finance oil exports

By the end of January 2023, Russia is successfully evading oil sanctions on an industrial scale. Large Western companies refused to trade, ship and insure oil, however, mysterious newcomers came in their place, who began to help sell oil to this country.

They are not based in Geneva, but in Hong Kong or Dubai. Many of them have never dealt with this raw material before, insiders suspect that most of them are a cover for Russian state-owned companies.

Experts believe that black gold from the Russian Federation spreads through shadow channels that are difficult to track. The new "shadow" transportation and financing infrastructure is reliable and extensive. Instead of disappearing, the gray market is ready to expand when the next package of sanctions is imposed.

Offshore oil flows from Russia have increased. Moscow is sending more and more cargo to the water.

The average four-week flow of Russian oil is the highest since June 2022 amid impending new restrictions from the EU.

Oil exports from Russia recovered over the past week (January 20-27), compensating for most of the losses of the previous week. Total volumes increased by 480 thousand bars per day, or 16%, to 3.6 million per week.

Oil transfer from tanker to tanker in Ceuta

The conflict in Ukraine has spawned a new oil trade hub, with the city of Ceuta, a small Spanish enclave on Africa's northern coast of just 85,000 people, becoming a key hub of operations for Russia's "ghost flotilla" by early 2023.

Russia leased and acquired a significant number of small vessels to transport crude oil. In Ceuta waters, Russian vessels are overloading crude oil to other larger vessels for transport to various ports around the world, especially in Asia.

This method allows the country to reduce the cost of delivery, bypass restrictions and simplify logistics for customers.

The result? Russian oil continues to enter the global market in large quantities (just below the pre-war level). This is despite US and EU sanctions. Even if the Kremlin has to sell its oil at a discount, it still sells a lot, Spanish media wrote.

Before the conflict, Moscow used small tankers to deliver crude directly to European refineries. But now Russia is using the coast of Ceuta as a base for sea transportation. Russia and China, in particular, seem to be organizing more exchange points in Ceuta. Meanwhile, the US is pressuring China not to make it easier for Russia to export crude oil and reduce its purchases.

Official energy supplies from the United States to the EU caught up with supplies from Russia

Data excluding sales of Russian oil under the guise of Kazakh, etc.

Oil from Russia will flow to the German refinery bypassing European sanctions under the guise of Kazakh

Germany has received confirmation of commercial crude oil supplies for the Schwedt refinery, which will arrive in the Polish port of Gdansk in January 2023.

The cargo of 100 thousand tons will be delivered to the Polish port by tanker and then through the Polish pipeline system to Shvedt by the end of January. In accordance with previous agreements, from February it is planned to transport more volumes through Gdansk.

Since the beginning of 2023, the Shvedt refinery has been operating at 50% capacity due to the cessation of supplies of Russian raw materials, since it worked on Urals crude oil via the Druzhba oil pipeline. But in recent months, management has carried out "good preparation" and now the plant seems to be able to produce products without Russian oil, the Rybar channel noted.

In order for Warsaw to agree to help Berlin with supplies, it had to make concessions and take control of Rosneft's Rosneft Deutschland division, which partially owned the refinery. And although other details of the deal are unknown, since they are determined by contracts between companies, there is a high probability that oil is still Russian: it simply comes from Kazakhstan. It was on him that the German authorities pinned their hopes.

In December 2022, Germany reported that Poland was ready to provide enough oil to load the enterprise in Schwedt by 70% from January, and that oil from Kazakhstan would help replenish imports from the Russian Federation, which were stopped due to the imposed sanctions.

Kazakhstan KMG Trading, a subsidiary of the state oil company KazMunayGas JSC, supplies 13 million tons per year to the Russian pipeline system and receives an equivalent amount of Urals oil, which it can then sell internationally.

In January 2023 , it became known that KazTransOil JSC, part of the KazMunayGas group, received permission from the Russian Ministry of Energy to transport 300 thousand tons of oil for further supply to Germany. And it is the refinery in Schwedt in Brandenburg that is the end point of transit.

However, the planned oil supplies from Kazakhstan to Gdansk will not be able to meet the needs of refineries in Shvedt and local consumers. The technological process at the plant is tuned specifically to the Russian grade Urals, and its large-scale modernization for the grades of other suppliers has not been officially announced.

The guaranteed loading of refineries requires much larger volumes than can be provided by tanker deliveries. In addition, tanker freight rates have increased significantly over the past year, and the number of available ships has decreased. Against this background, pipeline supplies are a more reliable source of oil.

With a high probability, Kazakh oil will mix with Russian oil to the parameters necessary for stable operation of the refinery, or part of the supplies will be completely Russian. This is quite a working option, given the fact that mutual oil supplies between Russia and Kazakhstan are the norm.

Increase in shipments by sea by 30% to April 2022

Russian oil exports by sea in the second week of January 2023 rose to their highest level since April 2022, suggesting the country overcame the initial blow to flows that followed European sanctions.

The total volume of Russian oil increased by 876,000 barrels per day, or 30%, to 3.8 million in the week to January 13.

The sharp growth in oil exports continued into January. Oil shipments from the ports of the Baltic Sea on January 1-20, 2023 will increase 1.5 times compared to the previous month, Reuters reports, citing sources among traders.

According to the shipment plan, tankers will export 4.1 million tons from the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga against 2.7 million for the same period in December. At the end of the month, exports may increase to 6.5 million tons, although in December they did not exceed 5 million.

The interest of buyers, meanwhile, is fueled by discounts: the price of the main Russian variety Urals, which accounts for almost two-thirds of exports, fell below $40 per barrel. Batches from Primorsk were shipped at $38.7 per barrel - a record cheap since the summer of 2020.

Export growth from Black Sea ports

2022

Export growth of mineral fuel, oil and petroleum products by 42.8% to $383.7 billion

In 2022, Russia increased exports of mineral fuel, oil and their distillation products, bituminous substances by 42.8% compared to supplies a year ago - up to $383.7 billion. Such data were released by the Federal Customs Service (FCS) on March 13, 2023.

According to the department's materials cited by TASS, imports of oil and petroleum products to the Russian Federation in 2022 also increased - by 5.3%, to $2.6 billion. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier that Russia's oil exports in 2022 amounted to 242 million tons, an increase of 7.6% compared to 2021. Oil refining in 2022 almost reached 272 million tons, which is 3% lower than the previous year. At the same time, due to the modernization of the refinery, the oil refining depth averaged 83.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points by 2021.

After the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions due to a special military operation in Ukraine, oil companies from Russia had to redirect supplies from the European market to the Asian one. As a result, China and India became the largest buyers of Russian oil. More than 90% of crude oil goes to these countries, says Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. But, in his opinion, it is possible that new buyers may appear among neighboring countries and Asia.

Ekaterina Krylova, managing expert of the PSB Center for Analytics and Expertise, believes that theoretically one can expect Russian oil supplies to Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa and Sri Lanka. The increase in exports to China will be facilitated by the approval by the PRC government of purchases of Russian oil by Chinese state-owned companies, she said in February 2023. According to Krylova, Russia can export 2.2-2.3 million barrels per day of oil to China in 2022^[3]%

Oil exports grew by 7% in money by the end of the year

Budget revenues of the Russian Federation from the oil and gas industry increased in 2022 by 28% or 2.5 trillion rubles, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. According to the results of the year, oil exports from the Russian Federation increased by 7%, and production by 2%.

Russia managed to maintain oil exports in physical terms after the sanctions associated with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian crude oil exports (by pipe and tankers in all directions) grew by 0.4% in 2022 (from 5.27 million barrels per day to 5.29 mb/d), according to updated BP data. The increase is symbolic, but the very fact of stabilization of export markets is important.

The structure is important here. The main market for crude oil remained Europe, whose share was 44.2% in 2022, compared with 52.6%. This is an effect of inertia, because the disconnection of Russia from the European energy market went gradually and only in December 2022 supplies were zeroed (by tankers), while maintaining pipeline exports and the market in Turkey.

The second most important sales market in 2022 was China, occupying a share of 32.6% compared to 30.2% in 2021.

India is in third place, having significantly increased its share from 1.7 to 14%. CIS countries occupy 6%, maintaining a share from 2021. To non-CIS countries, the export of Russian crude oil occupies a share of 94%.

All other regions in 2022 occupied a symbolic share of 3.3%. In the United States, the share decreased from 3.8% to 0.4% due to deliveries in Q1 2022, because since April 2022, exports have zeroed. The Japanese market was significantly reduced from 1.7% (in 2021 the share was equal to India) to 0.7%.

The other Asian region halved its share of exports from 3.8% to 1.9%, while Central and South America are stable with a near-zero share of 0.27%.

Russia's share of global crude oil exports decreased slightly from 12.8% to 12.4%. The physical volume was maintained, but profitability decreased significantly (discounts, logistics, insurance and financial costs).

At the end of the year, Russia took second place in oil supplies to China

Russia in 2022 took second place in oil supplies to China (86.25 million tons of oil). On the first - Saudi Arabia (87.49 million tons).

India increases oil imports from Russia by 22 times for its processing and export of diesel to the EU

Russian oil supplies to India in 2022 increased 22 times, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in March 2023.

In December 2022, India purchased a record amount of Russian oil, with the country importing 33 times more than a year earlier.

According to Vortexa Ltd., the third largest oil importer in the world purchased an average of 1.2 million barrels per day from Russia in December. This is 29% more than in November. Sanctions by G7 countries and the EU may have led to increased rebates.

India began to actively increase oil purchases at a discount in order to act as an intermediary for the supply of fuel to the EU market.

India processes oil into diesel and sends it to countries. European Union Supply growth continued in January 2023.

At the same time, New Delhi practically does not face public opposition, since this meets the dual goals of the West - to reduce Moscow's revenues from the sale of energy resources and prevent a shock from oil supplies. And as Europe steps up sanctions, India will be increasingly central to the global oil map.

Russian oil is mixed in Singapore and then re-exported

Russian oil is mixed in Singapore and then re-exported, sources said in early 2023. Demand for oil storage tanks in Singapore is growing.

Russian fuel receipts to Singapore jumped in December 2022, according to Vortexa. Singapore oil terminals received in December 2022 more than twice as much Russian naphtha and fuel oil as a year ago. The city-state received 2.6 million barrels of naphtha, which is almost 40 times more than a year earlier.

Zeroing of offshore oil supplies to Europe except Bulgaria

About 62% of crude oil exports were to unfriendly countries in 2021 and at least 75% of petroleum product exports. This is a significant market for Russia, but what are the trends in 2022?

Turkey is de facto joining the sanctions, demanding proof of insurance for all oil tankers transiting the Bosphorus and Dardanelles.

Supplies to Europe were almost completely zeroed out by mid-December, while before the conflict in Ukraine, oil exports from Russia by sea amounted to 1.6-1.8 mb/d, mainly using terminals in the Baltic, Black and Arctic Seas.

Western countries Europe are the fastest in abandoning Russian oil. They were the first to refuse, and Britain Sweden Lithuania then refused Germany at the end of May, France in mid-June Finland , in early August, Poland in early October and after Netherlands the embargo was imposed on December 5.

The countries of Central and Southern Europe even increased volumes from March to mid-November, but before the embargo there was a sharp refusal. So Italy increased volumes from March by 2-2.5 times, and by the first days of December, supplies to Italy were stopped. Romania abandoned Russian oil in mid-November.

Turkey and Bulgaria remain the only buyers of Russian oil in Europe. However, the volume of supplies to Turkey fell four times, being about 100 thousand barrels per day and about the same to Bulgaria. We are talking about offshore supplies without taking into account pipeline flows.

Thus, out of 1.6-1.8 mb/d, which were before the start of the special operation of Russia in Ukraine, now there are 200-250 thousand left in European countries. Losses are estimated at 1.4-1.6 mb/d.

In Asia, a total of 1-1.2 million barrels per day were supplied to the countries of Asia, and now 2.4-2.5 million. There were practically no supplies to India at the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year India is the largest and key buyer of Russian oil, absorbing 0.9-1 million barrels per day, and China, on the contrary, reduces purchases from 1.1-1.2 million to 0.8 million barrels/d. Another 500-600 thousand barrels in recent weeks are unidentified with supplies to Asia.

"Tanker" oil in Europe has almost been replaced, with oil products it will be much more difficult, commented on the Spydell Finance channel.

Chinese companies ask the PRC government to ensure the preservation of oil imports from Russia after new sanctions

Main article: Trade between Russia and China

China's largest oil companies asked Beijing for help in November 2022 to ensure the flow of Russian imports following new sanctions against Moscow, which will take effect in December.

State refineries are concerned about their ability to work through the payment channels, logistics and insurance needed to continue buying oil from Russia beyond Dec. 5, people with knowledge of the matter said, who asked not to be named.

Some solutions put forward include increasing the volume of Russian oil transported through pipelines, setting up a dedicated bank to process payments and communicate with Moscow, and using more shipping to address direct supply between the seller and buyer, the sources said.

Growth in exports by sea due to expected restrictions from EU countries

Offshore oil supplies from Russia jumped to a five-month high in early November 2022 as the time for ships leaving Baltic and Arctic ports to reach key destinations before EU sanctions take effect is reduced.

Russia exported up to 14 million tons per month of crude oil from July to October 2022 by sea (petroleum products are not taken into account) according to Bruegel.

Up to 14 million tons of exports are over 100 million barrels per month, or an average of about 3.4 million barrels per day. In comparison with 2021, exports increased by a significant 35% for the period from July to October, and in comparison with January-February 2022, exports increased by almost 2 million tons per month or by 16%.

These calculations take into account the export of Russian oil by tankers in all directions, taking into account the "overflow" of oil from tanker to tanker, including outside the port infrastructure. A significant share of oil (about 50-60%), which is loaded in the port of Novorossiysk, is not Russian, but Kazakhstani, transported to the Black Sea through the Transneft pipeline system and loaded onto tankers from the dedicated terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Re-export excluded from calculations.

Definitely, the progress in replacing Russian oil is quite significant. In the structure of crude oil exports before WWW, almost 75% were occupied by unfriendly countries and at least 66% of total exports were countries. Europe

Oil exports to the United States, Britain, Canada and Japan have been completely discontinued since May 2022, and exports to Europe have been sequentially cut off continuously for 9 months. Unfriendly countries occupy 30% of the export structure for November 2022.

Export growth to China, India and Turkey

China, India and Turkey helped Russia maintain oil exports after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. By mid-October 2022, they are returning to the Russian barrel market, with Turkey playing a leading role in recent purchases.

A noticeable increase in the volume of oil on tankers that have not yet decided on their final destination complicates the task of monitoring Russian exports, but most of these ships end up in India, fewer are heading further east to China. The addition of these vessels to the calculations shows a steady increase in the cumulative flow of Russian oil to Turkey, China and India in recent weeks.

A little later it became known that Russia came out in October 2022 in the first place among oil exporters to India, leaving behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, traditionally leading in this area. It is reported by The Economic Times.

According to the publication, in October Russia supplied 946 thousand barrels of oil per day to India, which is 22% of all imports of crude oil to India.

At the same time, India continues to pay for barrels of oil in dollars after six months of payment negotiations, the Economic Times learned. India refused an offer to Moscow pay in, rubles euro or UAE dirhams, announcing a willingness to pay in rupees. This did not suit the Russian side.

Reduction of Russia's share in oil imports in Europe to 21%

Russia remains the largest supplier of crude oil to Europe. However, the share of imports from the Russian Federation in September 2022 decreased to 21%, compared with the average of 34% in 2021.

By the beginning of October 2022, purchases of Russian oil in Europe by sea decreased by 60% since February.

Revenues Russia from the sale of oil in September decreased by $3.2 billion compared to the previous month, writes Bloomberg. This is the sharpest monthly decline in the country's oil revenues in 2022.

The European Union's share of all Russian oil exports dropped from 50% to 35%.

In 2021, Russia received 121.4 billion from Europe for all positions of energy resources (coal - 6.6 billion, oil and oil products - 87 billion, gas - 28 billion).

In 2022, in the first nine months, there are already 129 billion, where coal is 6.6 billion (comparable to 2021, but trade was completely stopped in September), oil - 81 billion, and gas - 41 billion dollars.

India buys up Russian oil known as ESPO while competing with China

India broke into the once Chinese-dominated Russian oil market, accepting a record number of shipments of Far Eastern varieties as the fallout from Moscow's sting operation in Ukraine altered trade flows.

According to traders and ship brokers, in August 2022, six ships carrying Russian oil, known as ESPO, were heading to refineries in the South Asian country. This is the largest amount of cargo purchased by India since the flow was launched, and represents almost a fifth of the monthly deliveries available. "Now, ESPO crude is becoming a steady stream for India, a country that hasn't been a big fan of the variety for years," said Emma Lee, an analyst at Vortexa Ltd. "A flight to India will take longer, but deliveries can continue as long as the price remains attractive and there are no real sanctions blocking trade."

India became a key buyer of Russian energy resources after the start of the SVO, buying up millions of barrels of discounted oil, which was abandoned Europe and. USA As the conflict dragged on, the third-largest oil importer first increased purchases Russia of the flagship Urals grade, supplied from the western part, and now competes for ESPO, a high-distillate grade supplied from the east and usually preferred by Chinese buyers.

Oil supplies from Russia to the EU are declining

Decline in exports as revenues rise in dollars

In physical terms, oil exports from Russia in June 2022 fell to 16.5 million tons from 18.9 million in May. When recalculating at the Central Bank exchange rate, export revenue from oil sales amounted to $10.3 billion in May, and $10.6 billion in June. In May 2021, according to the FCS, Russia exported 18.6 million tons of oil worth $8.4 billion, in June - 22.7 million tons for $10.9 billion.

China's record oil purchases

In June 2022, China spent 72% more on the purchase of Russian energy resources than a year earlier - spending on these goods in June rose to $6.4 billion.

Thus, China's total spending on Russian energy from March to June amounted to $25.3 billion, which is almost double the $13.5 billion spent in the same four months of 2021.

Russia overtook Saudi Arabia in oil supplies to China for the second month in a row. In June, China received 9.5% more oil from Russia than a year earlier, and imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 30% due to higher prices for raw materials.

Britain buys Russian oil bypassing sanctions due to acute energy crisis in the country

According to Refinitiv, which provides data on financial markets and infrastructure, the United Kingdom from the end of February to the end of June 2022 acquired £800 million worth of diesel fuel from Russia. British ports received five shipments of fuel in April, four in May and one in June.

In addition to refined fuel, even Russian crude oil can be imported, the article says. To avoid legal obstacles, containers are filled with 51 percent energy from another country. The mixed oil is then delivered to the port of Novorossiysk, after which hundreds of thousands of barrels of black gold are transported to the Exxon Fawley processing plant in Hampshire. From the raw materials that arrived in Britain, petroleum products are produced, which are then sold in the kingdom.

Russian oil exports shift to Asia

The largest buyers of oil from Russia for 100 days of conflict in Ukraine

Export revenue growth in May by $261 million

Income Russia from oil exports in May 2022 grew by the year due to rising prices.

Russia bypassed Saudi Arabia and became# 1 in supplies to China

Imports of Russian oil to China in May 2022 increased by 55% in annual terms and by about a quarter compared to April. At the end of the month, the indicator of raw materials supplies reached a record level. As a result, Russia came out on top in terms of raw materials supplies to China, ahead of Saudi Arabia.

In May 2022, China bought Russian oil at an average of $121 per barrel. Total revenue from oil sales reached $7.47 billion for 8.42 million tons.

Russia -# 2 for oil supplies to India

Russia in May 2022 became the second largest oil supplier to India, pushing Saudi Arabia to third place.

In May, Indian oil refiners received an average of 819 thousand barrels of Russian oil per day. This is the highest figure in history, the agency notes. For comparison, in April, refineries in India received on average about 277 thousand barrels of Russian oil per day.

The first place in the list of the largest oil exporters to India in May is still occupied by Iraq.

Continued export of oil by sea

At the end of spring 2022, the offshore export of Russian oil does not stop. In the seven days to May 27, the total volume of crude oil supplies increased, not paying attention to the EU restrictions imposed in the middle of the month.

A total of 34 tankers loaded 25 million barrels from the country's export terminals, according to ship tracking and port agent reports. Thus, the average supply amounted to 3.58 million barrels per day, which is 4% more than 3.44 million in the week ended May 20.

The largest buyers of Russian oil

Italy increased imports of Russian oil despite efforts EU to end ties with Russian power.

In May 2022, Russia exported about 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day to Italy, more than four times more than in February and the most since 2013, according to commodity data firm Kpler.

As a result, Italy overtook the Netherlands as the largest center for importing Russian oil by sea in the EU.

Russia in April 2022 rose from tenth to fourth place in the list of oil suppliers to India - Times of India.

And already in May India , it imported 24 million barrels of Russian oil against 7.2 million barrels in April. Growth - more than 300%. Oil imports from India Russia from February 24 to May 30 amounted to 34 million barrels, according to Refinitiv.

Growth of revenues from export of oil and petroleum products by 50% in the first 4 months

2021

Export growth in money by 34%. Procurement Leadership Countries

In 2021, the volume of exports of Russian crude oil amounted to 230 million tons, which is 3.7% less than a year earlier. At the same time, revenue from deliveries increased by 34%, to $110.1 billion. This is evidenced by the data of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation, which was led by TASS on March 9, 2022 .

In 2021, Russia exported oil to 36 countries against 39 a year earlier. Moreover, since 2017, China has remained the largest buyer of Russian oil, and in 2021 the share of the Middle Kingdom in the total supply of this resource from the Russian Federation reached 30.6%.

• PRC - in 2021, the Russian Federation exported 70.1 million tons of oil to this country in the amount of $34.9 billion;
• Holland - 37.4 million tons for $17.3 billion;
• Germany - 19.2 million tons for $9.3 billion;
• Belarus - 14.9 million tons for $6.4 billion);
• South Korea (13.5 million tons for $6.4 billion);
• Poland (11.2 million tons for $5.4 billion);
• Italy (8.9 million tons for $4.2 billion);
• USA (7.4 million tons for $3.7 billion);
• Finland (6.3 million tons for $3 billion);
• Slovakia (5.3 million tons for $2.5 billion).

In general, countries European Union in 2021 accounted for 47% of Russian oil supplies in physical terms (108.1 million tons; $50.9 billion). For comparison, in 2012, the EU's share in Russian oil exports reached 67%.

In March 2022, the United States and Great Britain decided to ban the import of Russian oil and gas in response to the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. At the same time, American President Joe Biden admitted that not all European allies of the United States will be able to do the same.^[4]

Share of oil exports from Russia - 8.4% of the world market

Oil exports to South Korea

Second place in oil exports to the United States

Russia supplies more oil to the United States than any foreign producer other than Canada.

U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia rose 23% in May to 844,000 barrels per day from the previous month.

Little-known products such as fuel oil 100 are also in high demand in the US.

42% of revenues of the federal budget of the Russian Federation are formed due to the export of energy resources

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in July 2021 warned the Kremlin about the need to prepare for a drop in income.

Modelling by the Finance Ministry showed that the global promotion of clean energy could lead to a significant decrease in demand for fossil fuel exports and "radical changes in the global energy balance."

"Most of our budget revenues come from commodity exports, so we need to understand how we will replace the shortfall in revenues if these forecasts turn out to be accurate," Siluanov said.

According to the Bank of Russia, the impending EU carbon tax could cost Russia up to 8.2 billion euros ($9.7 billion) per year. The country's Ministry of Energy said that domestic oil and gas companies could lose $4 billion a year from these measures, which will be gradually introduced from 2023.

2020

Revenue from the sale of Russian crude oil abroad in 2020 fell by 40.8% to $72.3 billion amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Revenue from the sale of Russian crude oil abroad in 2020 fell by 40.8% compared to 2019, follows from the published data of the Federal Customs Service.

In total, Russian companies earned $72.3 billion for the sale of crude oil abroad, which amounted to 59.2% of the previous year's revenue.

At the same time, in physical terms, 11.4% less crude oil was sold abroad than a year earlier - 238.6 million tons.

The Central Dispatch Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex (TsDU TEK, a branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "REA" of the Ministry of Energy of Russia) cites data according to which oil exports from Russia in 2020 amounted to 232.5 million tons, which is 12.7% less than in 2019. Oil supplies to non-CIS countries fell by 11.8%, to 219.16 million tons, to non-CIS countries - by 24%, to 13.35 million tons. Oil transit at the end of 2020 reached 19.7 million tons, having decreased by 0.7% compared to 2019 earlier.

According to the FCS, in December 2020, oil exports from Russia in monetary terms slightly decreased by 0.4% compared to November 2020 and decreased by 38.7% compared to the last month of 2019 ($5.889 billion). Physical oil exports in December 2020 decreased by 8.7% on a monthly basis by 14.3% on an annualized basis - to 18.084 million tons.

According to the Argus agency, oil exports from Russia to non-CIS countries decreased by the end of 2020 to a minimum in 16 years due to a deal to reduce OPEC + oil production and reduce demand for raw materials amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

According to estimates by the international price agency, shipments of raw materials through the Transneft system to foreign countries in 2020 fell by 26.54 million tons (540 thousand barrels per knock) to 195.36 million tons (3.89 million barrels per day) compared to 2019.

For most oil companies, especially those who have invested a lot in processing plants, delivery to the domestic market and only then for export remains a priority, says Sergey Agibalov, head of Argus Oil and Petroleum Products.

The oil and gas industry is facing one of the deepest crises of the new millennium in 2020. In order to slow down the spread of the pandemic, most countries around the world have introduced restrictive measures that have led to a drop in business activity and a decrease in demand for hydrocarbons.

Oil, gas and refined products prices fell, and large oil-producing countries, including Russia, were forced to urgently agree on a decrease in production under the OPEC + deal^[5]

Exports of oil and petroleum products from Russia to the United States rose to a record since 2011

By the end of 2020, the export of oil and petroleum products from Russia to the United States reached an average of 538 thousand barrels. per day, which was the highest value since 2011, when supplies were measured 624 thousand barrels. per day. Such data are provided by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. Read more here.

20 largest buyers of Russian oil

On April 23, 2020 , Forbes magazine published an updated rating of the largest buyers of Russian oil. The leading troika has not changed compared to 2019: it still includes the Chinese China National United Oil Corporation (ChinaOil), the Swiss trader Lukoil Litasco and Rosneft's subsidiary Rosneft Trading.

In fifth place was the Chinese company CEFC, which in 2019 bought 9.3 million tons of oil for $4.5 billion. The publication noted that CEFC oil purchased in Russia supplies not only to China, but also to Japan, Bulgaria, Romania, Italy and other countries.

For the first time, Socar Trading (a subsidiary of Azerbaijani Socar) and Russian Marsa Energy Trading entered the top twenty. Forbes also notes that Gunvor (20th place), which was previously owned by billionaire Gennady Timchenko, has returned to the top twenty buyers of Russian oil .

1. ChinaOil - 39.7 million tons of oil for $18.3 billion.
2. Litasco - 38.3 million tons for $17.4 billion.
3. Rosneft Trading - 28 million tons for $12.5 billion.
4. Total Oil Trading - 22.8 million tons for $10.2 billion.
5. CEFC China - 9.3 million tons for $4.5 billion.
6. Glencore - 8.3 million tons for $3.8 billion.
7. QHG Trading - 8.6 million tons for $3.7 billion.
8. Orlen - 8.3 million tons for $3.6 billion.
9. Tatneft Europe - 8.4 million tons for $3.6 billion.
10. Shell Trading - 7.4 million tons for $3.4 billion.
11. Concept Oil Services - 6.4 million tons for $3.1 billion.
12. Sakhalin Energy - 5.2 million tons for $2.8 billion.
13. Exxon Mobil (including EXTAP) - 4.6 million tons for $2.3 billion.
14. Unipec Asia Company - 4.1 million tons for $2 billion.
15. Vitol - 3.9 million tons for $1.9 billion.
16. British Petroleum - 3.5 million tons for $1.7 billion.
17. Grupa Lotos - 2.5 million tons for $1.1 billion.
18. Socar Trading - 2.2 million tons for $1 billion.
19. Marsa Energy Trading - 2.3 million tons for $1 billion.
20. Gunvor - 2.1 million tons for $0.96 billion^[6]

2019: Russia is the largest oil supplier to the EU

2017:252 million tonnes (-0.9%)

Oil exports from Russia decreased in 2017 by 0.9% in annual terms to 252.6 million tons, Rosstat reports.

The share of oil in Russian exports in 2017 amounted to 26.1%, in the export of fuel and energy goods - 44.1% (in 2016 - 25.8% and 44.4%, respectively).

The average export price for Russian oil amounted to $435 per 1 ton by December 2017 (106.3% by November 2017), the price for Urals oil - $464.4 per 1 ton (102.6% by November 2017).

2012:240 MTA

Oil exports in natural (non-monetary) terms have been slowly declining in recent years. In 2012, Russia exported slightly less than 240 million tons of oil, of which more than 210 million went to foreign countries. The decline in exports is due to the fact that the Russian economy is growing and requires more and more fuel. In addition, the Russian authorities are in favor of at least primary oil processing taking place within the country.

Earlier, the Russian authorities hoped to maintain the volume of record exports. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, in 2012 it should have remained at the level of 2011 or even slightly grow to 250 million tons.

It is noteworthy that the ratings of the largest mining companies in Russia and the largest exporters (judging by the data of Transneft) do not completely coincide. The first place in both rankings is occupied by Rosneft, but the second largest export is TNK-BP, the country's third largest mining company. The two corporations accounted for 90.1 million tonnes of exported oil, or 38 percent of the total, in 2012. Given that Rosneft will complete its takeover of TNK-BP in 2013, the state-owned company will account for more than a third of all domestic oil exports^[1]

Lukoil, Russia's second largest oil company, is not even in the top three in terms of exports. Due to the high volume of domestic processing, Lukoil exports less than 25 million tons, inferior in this indicator to Surgutneftegaz (26.7 million tons in 2012). However, these data do not take into account the exports of Lukoil through the channels of Transneft, that is, in fact, at least five million tons should be added to the figures of a private company.

Oil production until 2020, within the framework of the relevant development strategy for the oil industry, although it will stabilize at the level of 505-510 million tons, will increase exports to 270 million tons mainly due to an increase in the depth of oil refining in the domestic market.

2011: Export cut to 241.8 million tonnes (-1.3%)

According to the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation in 2011, oil exports from Russia decreased slightly (by 1.3%) and amounted to 241.8 million tons, based on the fact that 511 million tons were produced in 2011, we can conclude that almost half of all oil produced was exported from the country.

Notes