Main article: Russian Foreign Trade
Oil Production and Export
Oil products
Main article: Petroleum products in Russia
Export of naphtha
Main article: Naphtha
US and EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector
Main article: US and EU sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector
2024: Recovery of fuel oil exports in September to February 2022 levels
Fuel oil exports from Russia in September 2024 reached their highest since February 2022. Russia is one of the largest exporters of fuel oil, which is often used on ships, power plants and for processing at refineries.
2023
UAE increased annual purchases of petroleum products from Russia to a record $971 million
On July 10, 2024, it became known that United Arab Emirates in 2023 they increased purchases of petroleum products from Russia to a record 971 million, dollars which significantly exceeds the 2022 figure of $237.8 million. More here
Sharp reduction in petroleum product exports to 90.9 million tons and global market share to 7.5%
In 2021, Russia did not export 140.7 million tons (global market share - 11.5%), in 2022 - 125.9 million tons (market share - 10.1%), and in 2023 the export of petroleum products collapsed to 90.9 million tons (market share - 7.5%) according to BP.
A drop in physical exports of more than 35% in two years - can these estimates be trusted given the significant proportion of "sex smuggling"? It is difficult to say, Spydell Finance wrote, but these are still the first official indicators with high detail by region.
How did the share of Russian exports in the total supply of petroleum products by countries and regions change?
- USA: in 2021, Russia had a market share of about 20% in the supply of petroleum products to the United States, in 2022 - 6.2%, and in 2023 - 0%.
- Countries of the North (excluding the USA), Central and South America: 4.2 - > 3.2 - > 7.2%, respectively, for the above comparison periods.
- Europe: 38.4 - > 37 - > 19.4%
- CIS countries: 68.7 - > 73.7 - > 74.2%
- Middle East: 11.5 - > 7.5 - > 1.6% (share decreases, although by indirect indicators this region acted as a "transshipment" point for re-export)
- Africa: 3.7 - > 1.8 - > 3.5%
- Australia, New Zealand: 2 - > 3.9 - > 0%
- China: 3.1 - > 10.3 - > 14.2%
- India: 4.3 - > 13.7 - > 16.1%
- Japan: 1.3 - > 0.5 - > 0%
- Singapore: 4.1 - > 2.3 - > 3.9%
- Other countries: Asia 5.4 - > 3.2 - > 3%
Europe remains the main region for the supply of Russian petroleum products, where more than 41% of the export of Russian petroleum products vs 54% in 2021, the CIS countries - 7.4% vs 3.4% in 2021, and China and India account for a total of 27.4% vs 3.8% two years ago.
China and India have shown no interest in Russian petroleum products from the very beginning and so far there are no signals of a change in strategy, and the main chance of stabilizing supplies is re-export to Europe through the Middle East and Africa with strong dumping.
Europe continues to buy oil products from Russia through three ports in Turkey
Export growth due to diesel and naphtha
In early December 2023, Russian fuel exports are growing, mainly due to the supply of diesel fuel and naphtha.
Restriction on the export of gasoline and diesel to reduce prices in the domestic market
In September 2023, the Russian government agreed on a plan to curb the rapid rise in fuel prices, which would balance the interests of refiners and consumers, as well as the desire to reduce subsidies.
In 2022, Russia paid $22.5 billion to oil companies.
On September 21, the Russian government introduced a temporary restriction on the export of gasoline and diesel to stabilize the domestic market. This will help saturate the domestic market, which will reduce prices for consumers, the government said.
Russia's decision to ban the export of diesel fuel - and gasoline - puts consumers of these goods at risk, but how deep the consequences will be depends on how long it lasts.
According to Vortexa, this year Russia shipped more than 1 million barrels of diesel fuel per day. This is a huge amount of supply that the market can lose in the shortest possible time - about enough to meet all of Germany's demand.
Diesel fuel is used in all areas - from sea vessels to production. It ensures the work of a huge number of sectors of the world economy.
The Russian government removed marine fuel, gas oils and medium distillates from the export ban. In addition, the exception on allowing the export of petroleum products specified in the resolution to South Ossetia and Abkhazia was canceled.
The government withdrew from the ban on the export of fuel petroleum products accepted for export by Transneft and Russian Railways before the ban on the export of petroleum products came into force.
Stabilization of petroleum product exports in the range of 2.5-2.6 million barrels/d, while maintaining high discounts to the countries of the Middle East and Africa
The stabilization of exports of petroleum products from Russia in the range of 2.5-2.6 million barrels/d has occurred since April and is plus or minus at this level by the beginning of August 2023, but a new client has appeared - Brazil, which buys up to 0.25 million barrels/d.
Current structure of petroleum product exports from Russia in 2023 (as of the end of August):
- Asian countries take 1.2-1.5 million barrels/d, which is 3-4 times higher than before the conflict in Ukraine, where the main buyers are: Turkey (0.3-0.5 million), China (0.2-0.35 million), India (0.1-0.25 million), Malaysia (0.1-0.35 million), Singapore and South Korea.
- Middle East countries 0.4-0.7 mln bbl/d (major customers: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman)
- African countries since 2023 sell an average of 0.4-0.5 million barrels/d of Russian exports (main customers: Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Togo, Senegal)
- In Europe, after the embargo, only Greece and Malta buy oil products from Russia by 0.2-0.25 million barrels/d.
The problem is that oil products are discharged to countries in Africa and the Middle East at extreme discounts of 25-40%, which is almost 1 million barrels per day, or up to 40% of total exports. Estimated discounts to Turkey are 20-25%. The weighted average discount for all customers is estimated at 20-25% (according to S&P estimates).
Fuel exports to Brazil surge
Brazil consumes Russian fuel more than ever before, intends to import a record amount of Russian fuel in August 2023.
According to the energy analytical company Kpler Ltd., imports of Russian petroleum products will grow by 25% compared to July and will amount to about 235 thousand barrels per day. This USA is much more than those that used to be the main foreign fuel supplier for. Brazil
Brazil has become the second largest buyer of Russian diesel fuel in the world.
After a two-year break, Russia resumed oil exports to Brazil in September 2023, putting the maximum in 13 years 84.4 thousand.
Diesel export growth in June after repair work at factories
A sharp rise in diesel exports helped Russian shipments of petroleum products rise slightly in June 2023, as refineries returned after repairs.
Diesel and gas oil exports jumped 40% to a three-month high in June.
Saudi Arabia buys diesel fuel from the Russian Federation, and sends its own for export
Since the spring of 2023, Saudi Arabia has been buying up millions of barrels of Russian diesel fuel, which Europe refuses to buy, while sending its own volumes to buyers in the EU. Russian diesel supplies to Saudi Arabia have reached a multi-year high.
Growth of petroleum products exports in April
Russian exports of fuel such as diesel and gasoline will significantly exceed seasonal norms in April 2023, despite EU sanctions that recently came into force.
Shipments of pure petroleum products, of which diesel accounted for more than half, amounted to 1.9 million barrels per day during the first three weeks of April, according to Vortexa Ltd.
If such a pace persists before the end of the month, the volume of exports will be the highest for this time of year, at least since 2016.
Record diesel exports in March despite sanctions
Russian diesel exports reached a record high in March 2023, despite EU sanctions allegedly depriving the country of its largest market.
According to Vortexa Ltd., diesel fuel supplies from Russia in the first 19 days of March amounted to about 1.5 million barrels per day. If this figure continues, then this month will record the highest level of exports on record since the beginning of 2016.
Turkey, Morocco and other countries have increased procurement volumes.
By the spring of 2023, the main clients of Russia were: Turkey (0.45 million), China (0.32 million), Saudi Arabia (0.28 million), the UAE (0.24 million) and African countries, purchasing more than 0.5 million barrels/d.
Despite the embargo on Europe, the supply of petroleum products from Russia in February-March 2023 reached a record of 2.9-3 million barrels/d!
Surge in demand in North Africa for oil products from Russia for likely re-export to Europe
The countries of North Africa rushed to "insatiably" buy Russian oil products, wrote WSJ at the end of February 2023. Spikes in demand were revealed in,, Morocco, and Tunisia. Egypt Libya Algeria This happened after Europe reduced purchases due to sanctions during the conflict on. To Ukraine Analysts suspect that some of the Russian cargo is exported back to Europe.
Diesel exports to Europe via Turkey
The increase in diesel fuel from Russia to Turkey and Morocco gives an idea of how this market will work bypassing the EU ban on imports from Russia from February 2023.
Turkey has taken the most Russian diesel since at least early 2016.
Moroccan imports are also on the rise, tanker tracking data shows.
2022
Exports of petroleum products for 5 years decreased by 17.3%
Over five years, the export of petroleum products from Russia decreased by 17.3% - from 152 million tons in 2018 to 125 million tons in 2022. Such data in early May 2023 were released by BusinesStat analysts.
According to their calculations, in 2022, relative to 2021, the supply of petroleum products from the Russian Federation fell by 14.1%, to 20.6 million tons. This decline was the result of Western sanctions that directly affected the Russian oil refining industry:
- introduced a ban on the import into Russia and the repair of equipment for oil processing;
- limited transactions with major Russian refiners (Gazpromneft, Rosneft, Transneft);
- introduction of a ban on insurance of oil and petroleum products by sea from Russia to third countries.
In 2022, a decline in exports of Russian refiners to the Netherlands (-10.5 million tons compared to 2021), the United States (-7.1 million tons), South Korea (-2.9 million tons) and Malta (-2.4 million tons) was registered.
In 2022, oil products worth $82.8 billion were exported from Russia, which is 5.4% more than in 2018. The main factor in the growth of export revenue was the increase in export prices (+ 27.4% over the five-year period), which compensated for the decrease in the natural volume of supplies (-17.3%).
In 2022, the price of exporting petroleum products from Russia amounted to $657.7 per ton, which is 27.4% higher than the result of 2018. In the context of the pandemic and the foreign policy crisis, supply chains were unbalanced and the costs of product delivery increased significantly. In addition, in 2021-2022. prices of Russian producers of petroleum products also increased. In 2022, the most expensive types of petroleum products exported from Russia were heavy gas oils and kerosene - $1007.5 and $942.5 per ton, respectively. Bitumen was exported from the country at the lowest prices (an average of $400.2 per ton).[1]
Russia remains a major exporter of petroleum products: dynamics and structure
Spain purchased 226 thousand tons of diesel from Russia in July
Importers in Spain carried out the largest purchase of diesel fuel from Russia in July 2022. Spain imported 226 thousand tons of diesel from the Russian Federation in July. We are talking about the largest purchase in a month since December 2009. The publication clarifies that this happened in the midst of Russia's special operation in Ukraine and at a time when the European Union is trying to reduce commercial relations with the Russian Federation. Sources in the industry note that diesel from Russia at the time of purchase was almost 10% cheaper than from other suppliers.
Growth of revenues from export of oil and petroleum products by 50% in the first 4 months
2021
Top 10 buyers of Russian jet fuel
Gasoline exports from Russia increased by 15.8%, to $2.55 billion
Gasoline exports from Russia in 2021 increased by 15.8% compared to 2020 and reached $2.55 billion. This is evidenced by the data of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation, published on February 7, 2022.
If in the money Russian oil companies have significantly increased the supply of gasoline abroad, then in terms of shipments in 2021 there was a decline - by 24.5% compared to 2020, to 4.4 million tons.
According to FCS statistics, the total revenues of companies from the export of petroleum products from Russia at the end of 2021 increased by 54.2%, to $69.96 billion, and the physical volume of exports during this period increased by 1.8%, to 144.3 million tons.
Revenues of companies from the export of diesel fuel in 2021 increased by 34.5%, to $26.16 billion, and the volume of supplies decreased by 7.6%, to 49.2 million tons.
The rise in world prices for oil and oil products and the weakening of the ruble in 2021 led to the fact that gasoline exports became much more profitable than sales on the domestic market. As a result, the ruble export price of gasoline increased, which caused the rise in exchange prices in Russia to record values. This also negatively affected the retail fuel market, especially independent gas stations.
Against this background, the Ministry of Energy has prepared a project banning the export of gasoline and light distillates from Russia for a period of three months to ensure a stable situation in the domestic market during periods of peak demand and repair at refineries. The restriction may apply to gasoline brands AI-80, AI-92, AI-95, AI-98 and others, as well as some types of light distillates.
The government's initiative to impose a temporary ban on gasoline exports should ensure that these volumes are redirected to the domestic market, which could cause domestic wholesale prices to decline. This, in turn, will restrain further growth in retail prices amid seasonal growth in demand.[2]
2020: Increase in gasoline exports from Russia by 12.4%, to 5.82 million tons
The volume of gasoline exports from Russia at the end of 2020 reached 5.82 million tons, which is 12.4% more than a year earlier. At the same time, suppliers' revenues decreased by 23.7%, to $2.2 billion. This is evidenced by data from the Federal Customs Service (FCS).
The revenues of companies from the sale of diesel abroad in 2020 amounted to $19.43 billion (-32.6% compared to 2019), the volume of supplies increased to 53.2 million tons (+ 3.3%).
In general, foreign supplies of petroleum products amounted to 141.8 million tons in 2020 for $45.346 billion. In monetary terms, this is 32.3% less than a year earlier, and in volume - 0.8% less.
Fuel and energy goods remained the basis of Russian exports in January-December 2020, but their share in the commodity structure of exports significantly decreased to 49.6% (in 2019 - 62.1%). Compared to 2019, the value of fuel and energy goods decreased by 36.6%, and physical - by 6%. In the export of goods of the fuel and energy complex, the physical volumes of electricity supplies decreased - by 39.6%, kerosene - by 16.7%, natural gas - by 9.7%.
According to data, Rosstat retail prices for AI-95 gasoline in 2020 in Russia increased by 2.4%, on AI-92 - by 2.1%. In order to reduce the dependence of domestic prices on the export alternative, the Russian authorities introduced the so-called damping mechanism. If the potential revenues of oil workers from fuel exports become higher than the price within the Russian Federation, the budget pays companies part of the difference between these prices, thus stimulating supplies to the domestic market. If, on the contrary, the domestic market becomes premium, then oil workers are already paying to the budget of the Russian Federation.[3]
See also
Notes
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