Gas exports from Russia

Major Gas Trading Routes

Exporters

• Gazprom export
• Novatek

Gas pipelines

• Power of Siberia

• Turkish Stream (TurkStream)

• Gas pipelines to China through the Far East and Mongolia. In February 2023, Gazprom announced that the Russian Federation could become the largest gas supplier to the PRC in the foreseeable future.

"In February 2022, the second long-term gas purchase and sale agreement was signed. On the "Far Eastern" route, 10 billion cubic meters will be supplied to China annually. m of gas. Infrastructure design is underway. Negotiations are ongoing on a project to supply gas to China through the territory of Mongolia in the amount of up to 50 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year. The design of the gas pipeline is underway, "the materials say.

• Nord Stream AG (disabled by a terrorist attack by the United States and Norway with the participation of Britain)
• Yamal-Europe

In November 2022, the Polish authorities, against the background of the conflict in Ukraine, seized Gazprom's stake in the operator of the Polish part of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline Europol Gaz. At the end of 2022, Yamal-Europe was completely deactivated.

At the end of 2022, 8-9% of the potential volume is supplied through the GTS of Ukraine, and the Turkish Stream is loaded by 50-55%.

US and EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector

Main article: US and EU sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector

Gas production in Russia

Main article: Gas production in Russia

Gas market in Russia

Main article: Gas (Russian market)

2024

Russia is the second largest LNG supplier in the EU

In April 2024, the EU's energy regulator warned that the bloc still needed to import Russian LNG to avoid an energy shock, even amid a push by a group of member states to ban purchases of the fuel from Moscow.

"The reduction in Russian LNG imports should be considered gradually," said the Acer report, which emphasizes that the EU is difficult to find a balance between energy security and the desire to strike at Russia's finances by reducing gas purchases.

France in January 2024 increased LNG imports from Russia to a maximum from November 2022, buying it for €293 million - the media.

Spain acquired €274 million of gas from Russia at the beginning of 2024, the highest figure in 12 months. Small purchases were also made by Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and Estonia - a total of €118 million. As a result, in January, the EU acquired LNG from Russia for the maximum since May 2023 €684.3 million.

2023

Export decline by 29.9% to 99.6 billion cubic meters

In 2023, Russia supplied about 99.6 billion cubic meters of gas abroad through pipelines, which is 29.9% more than a year earlier (14.1 billion cubic meters). Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak cited such data on February 6, 2024 during his speech at the Federation Council.

According to Novak's materials, the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2023 decreased by 1.9% - to 45.4 billion cubic meters (in 2022 - 46.3 billion cubic meters). In the Russian Federation, large-tonnage LNG is produced by Sakhalin Energy plants (co-owners - Gazprom, Mitsui and Mitsubishi), as well as Yamal LNG (participants - NOVATEK, TotalEnergies, Chinese CNPC and SRF).

Russia supplied about 99.6 billion cubic meters of gas abroad through pipelines

The main reason for the decline in pipeline gas exports is the shutdown of fuel supplies to Europe through the Yamal - and Europe Nord Stream pipelines. In 2022, they had a significant impact on the export result, but in the fall of that year it was possible to pump gas only through the Ukrainian gas transmission system and Turkish Stream.

At the end of 2023, gas exports to China by the Power of Siberia amounted to 22.7 billion cubic meters. This is 700 million cubic meters more than Gazprom's contractual obligations and 1.5 more than in 2022 (15.4 billion cubic meters). According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in monetary terms, gas exports through the pipeline from Russia to China in 2023 increased by 61.7% compared to a year ago and reached $6.4 billion. Russia ranks second in this indicator. In the first place, according to the ministry, is Turkmenistan ($9.6 billion). On the third - Myanmar ($1.4 billion).

Earlier, the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that gas supplies to China in 2023 increased 1.5 times compared to 2022. He stressed that in 2025 the company is going to fulfill its contractual obligations and deliver 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China.^[1]

Georgia increased imports of natural gas from the Russian Federation by 16.5% over the year

In 2023, 2.3 million tons of natural gas were supplied to Georgia from abroad, which is 0.2% less than a year earlier. At the same time, imports from Russia increased by 16.5%, to 486 thousand tons. This was announced at the end of January 2024 by the Georgian Statistics Service. Read more here.

Russia sharply increased LNG supplies to India and Turkey

The export of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Turkey in 2023 increased 1.4 times compared to 2022 and reached 814,000 tons. Supplies to India increased 1.5 times to 432,000 tons. Kpler analysts presented such data in mid-January 2024.

As Vedomosti writes with reference to Kpler materials, in Europe at the end of 2023, LNG supplies from Russia to Greece increased significantly - 4.5 times to 662,000 tons. At the same time, Turkey, like Greece, is a member of the North Atlantic military-political bloc. In general, the above countries have become leaders in increasing imports of Russian LNG, analysts concluded.

It is also noted that in 2023, the Russian Federation for the first time in five years supplied a batch of LNG to Brazil in the amount of 67,000 tons.

According to Sergei Finam Kaufman, an analyst at FG "," quoted by the publication, the increase in LNG imports by Greece and Turkey is associated with an increase in production at the Gazprom Portovaya KSPG plant. Leningrad Region Previously, this complex sold LNG to the Baltic countries, but by January 2024 there are no long-term contracts, and the plant sends LNG to the spot market, where the main buyers were Greeks and Turks.

According to Kaufman, India in the future may take a high place in the ranking of LNG importers from Russia. He admits in 2024 the likelihood of resuming purchases of Russian LNG by Indian Gail and the supply of gas volumes from Arctic LNG 2.

At the same time, one should not expect an increase in LNG imports to Turkey and Greece in 2024, since the main volumes will be produced by Arctic LNG 2, which is under US sanctions, Kaufman added.^[2]

Spain became the largest buyer of Russian LNG in the EU

In 2023, 72,690 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) were delivered to Spain, which is 35% more than a year earlier, when the indicator was measured at 53,859 GW. Such data in January 2024 was published by the Spanish energy company Enagas. Read more here.

Reduction of LNG exports from Russia by 2%

In 2023, Russian plants produced 32.33 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is 2% less than a year ago. The total volume of LNG exports decreased by the same 2%, although separately in December 2023 it turned out to be the maximum for the year and 7% more compared to the last month of 2022. Such data analysts Kpler published in January 2024.

According to their estimates, the reason for the drop in LNG supplies was summer repairs on the liquefaction lines of the Yamal LNG and Sakhalin-2 projects. Thus, the first in 2023 produced 19.88 million tons (21 million tons in 2022), and the second - 10.2 million (11.5 million tons).

Novatek's Cryogas-Vysotsk plant increased shipments by 7.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 0.76 million tons of LNG. The Portovaya LNG plant of Gazprom, which began work a little over a year ago, shipped 1.47 million tons.

Despite the general decline in Russian LNG supplies abroad, exports to Europe in 2023 increased by 1%. Taking into account Turkey, the volume of shipments in 2023 amounted to 16.42 million tons against 16.25 million tons a year earlier.

At the same time, Russian LNG supplies to Asia decreased by 6.1% - from 16.48 million tons in 2022 to 15.48 million tons in 2023. The main buyers of Russian LNG in 2023 were:

• in Asia - China, which received 6.7 million tons, Japan - 6 million tons, South Korea - 1.7 million tons.

• in Europe - Spain and Belgium, who purchased 5 million tons each, as well as France with 3.67 million tons.

Yamal LNG accounted for more than 70% of shipments to Europe. Despite the initiatives of individual countries, the EU countries did not impose restrictions on the supply of Russian LNG. EU countries partially compensate for the decline in Russian gas supplies through pipelines due to LNG imports, including from Russia.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on December 27, 2023 predicted LNG production in the Russian Federation at 33 million tons at the end of 2023.^[3]

Slight decline in EU LNG exports

Imports of Russian liquefied natural gas to the EU declined slightly in 2023 after soaring in 2022.

Earlier, according to Global Witness for January-July 2023, LNG exports from Russia to the EU grew compared to the same period last year.

Belgium, thanks to its status as a transit hub, is the third largest importer of Russian LNG in the world, taking 17% of the country's exported fuel, second only to China and Spain.

Austria consumes more than 50% of gas flowing into the EU through Ukraine

Austria overflowing with Russian gas, which allows a longtime customer to Gazprom"" increase sales to their neighbors.

This country has been a hub for Russian flows for more than half a century, where storage facilities and pipelines have historically been set up to pump fuel to, Hungary,, and Germany. Italy Slovenia The state-owned company OMV has a long-term contract with Gazprom that obliges it to buy gas reaching the border.

Formally, Austria declares its desire to diversify supplies from Russia, but trade data indicate stable supplies through Ukraine, which satisfy more than half of the needs of the country's economy. The transit agreement through Ukraine ends in 2024.

EU ports help sell more than 20% of LNG imported by EU from Russia

EU ports help sell more than 20% of LNG imported by the EU from Russia, the FT wrote in November 2023.

Although contracts for the so-called Russian LNG transshipment were banned Britain in and, data obtained in Netherlands 2023 suggests that authorized consignments of Russian gas are regularly reloaded from one tanker to another in, and Belgium France Spain before heading to customers on other continents.

Deliveries to China by Power of Siberia are approaching the level of supplies to Western Europe before the conflict in Ukraine

Gazprom's pipeline supplies China in the near future may reach the level of gas supplies that were sent to Western Europe, the head of "" said.Gazprom Alexey Miller

At the end of 2022, Russia exported 15.5 billion cubic meters through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China. m of gas. Russian gas supplies to China by Power of Siberia in 2023 are expected at 22 billion cubic meters. m. The gas pipeline reaches its design capacity of 38 billion cubic meters. m expected in 2025.

At the same time, in the coming years, Gazprom's total exports to China will reach 48 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year (due to the implementation of the project for gas supplies to China along the "Far Eastern" route), and taking into account the transit gas pipeline through Mongolia - almost 100 billion cubic meters. m per year - Miller.

Gazprom for the first time delivered a batch of LNG of its own production along the Northern Sea Route

On September 15, 2023, the Veliky Novgorod gas tanker with a batch of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced by Gazprom at the Complex near the Portovaya CS completed unloading at the Tangshan LNG receiving terminal in China. This is stated in the message of Gazprom, published on the company's website.

As specified in the company, this is the first delivery of LNG produced by Gazprom along the Northern Sea Route.

According to company representatives, the use of this route significantly reduces the time for LNG delivery to the countries Asia-PAX region.

Russia began to deliver LNG to China by trucks

The first tank container with liquefied natural gas (LNG) was sent along the Blagoveshchensk-Heihe international automobile bridge to China. This was announced on August 2, 2023 by the press service of Gazprom. Read more here.

Decline in LNG exports in June to the level of 2021

According to Bloomberg, in June 2023, Russian LNG supplies to Asia decreased by about 15% to the lowest level since August 2021.

Japanese utilities are demanding alternative supplies from sellers. End consumers in South Korea do not buy Russian LNG on the spot market, sources add.

Chinese LNG imports from Russia fell to an 11-month low.

Agreement with Uzbekistan for the supply of 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas

Uzbekistan agreed with Russia on the purchase of gas within two years, the annual volume will be about 2.8 billion cubic meters. m. This was announced on June 19, 2023 by the press service of the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan. Read more here.

Novatek invests 2.4 billion rubles in LNG hub in Murmansk region

On January 20, 2023, it became known about Novatek's decision to invest more than 2.4 billion rubles in the project of the offshore transshipment complex (IPC) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Murmansk region. For this, an agreement was concluded by the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV). Read more here.

Russia in January came out on top in gas supplies to China

Russia in January 2023 came out on top in terms of natural gas supplies to China, bypassing Turkmenistan and Qatar. Total supplies of Russian fuel to China amounted to 2.7 billion cubic meters. m, while the volumes of the other largest suppliers - Turkmenistan and Qatar - amounted to 2.2 billion cubic meters. m and 1.9 bcm. m, respectively.

Britain stopped importing LNG from Russia, EU - increased

Britain stopped importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia from January 1, 2023

Russia ranked second in terms of LNG supplies to Europe in the first two months of 2023, overtaking Qatar.

2022

Russian LNG exports grew by 8% to 46 billion cubic meters. m, to Europe - by 13.5%

Russia increased LNG exports in 2022 by 8% - up to 46 billion cubic meters. m, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation reported in January 2023.

According to BP, LNG exports in 2022 amounted to 40.2 billion cubic meters and was comparable to 2021 (39.6 billion cubic meters). The data differ from the official statistics, since the calculation methodology is somewhat different.

Russia in 2022 ranks fourth in the world in terms of LNG exports, behind Qatar (114.1 billion cubic meters), Australia (112.3 billion cubic meters) and the United States (104.3 billion). The global share fell slightly from 7.7 to 7.4%.

In 2022, global foreign trade LNG flows amounted to 542.4 billion cubic meters - plus 5.1% YoY.

Almost half of Russian LNG exports go to Europe, and in comparison with 2021, supplies increased from 17.4 to 19.6 billion cubic meters. Russia's share in the European LNG market decreased from 16.1% to 11.5%, as Europe actively replaced losses of pipeline gas through LNG, the main supplier of which was the United States.

Russia ranks third in Europe in terms of LNG supplies after the United States (72.1 billion cubic meters) and Qatar (28 billion cubic meters), and the closest competitor of Russia is Algeria with supplies of 13.4 billion cubic meters per year.

Russian pipeline exports to Europe decreased by 81.6 billion, so LNG compensated over ¾ from losses. From Azerbaijan, Iran, Algeria and Libya, pipeline gas imports to Europe almost did not change, and from Norway increased by 4 billion. The rest was offset through reduced consumption.

In 2021, the US share in the European LNG market was 28.5%, and became 42.4%. In 2022, Europe increased LNG supplies from 108.2 to 170.2 billion cubic meters (+ 57% or plus 62 billion cubic meters). In the structure of supply growth for 2022, the US contribution is almost 68% (42 billion out of 62 billion cubic meters of total growth).

Also, LNG supplies to Europe increased Qatar by 5.5 billion, Egypt by 4 billion and Norway by 3.5 billion cubic meters.

At the end Europe Turkey of 2022, including, imported about 125 million tons of LNG, about Russia 13% of this volume, estimated Maria Belova from Vybon Consulting. Russian LNG played a significant role in the gas market Europe in 2022 - the absence of 20 billion cubic meters of LNG supplies from Russia could play a critical role during the season of gas injection into underground gas storage facilities, said Sergey Skoltech Kapitonov, an expert at the Center for Energy Transition and ESG. The share of LNG in total Russian gas supplies has grown markedly - from 7% a year earlier to 25% of total gas supplies, said independent expert Alexander Sobko.^[4]

Poland purchased liquefied hydrocarbon gas from the Russian Federation almost twice as much as the rest of Europe in 2022. "Poland is still the largest importer of LPG from Russia, this is one seventh of the fuel on our market," Rzeczpospolita wrote in March 2023. In 2022, Warsaw imported 710.3 million euros of liquefied gas from Russia, and the rest of the EU - by 417 million euros.

According to Kommersant, the main contribution to the increase in supplies was made by Novatek, whose Yamal LNG plant increased supplies to the EU by about 13.5%, to 14.65 million tons, Kommersant calculated based on data from the Kpler analytical system. Also, about 0.7 million tons came from another Novatek project - Cryogas-Vysotsk. Another project that allowed, albeit slightly, to increase LNG exports to Europe was Port LNG, launched by Gazprom in September 2022.

As for the Asian direction, where spot prices throughout the year were lower than Europe, deliveries from Gazprom's Sakhalin-2 project in the Far East increased by about 2%, to 10.64 million tons, NOVATEK reduced supplies to Asia from Yamal LNG by 7%, to about 5.1-5.3 million tons, the newspaper said.

Yamal LNG has a nominal capacity of 17.4 million tons per year. It includes three 5.5 MTA lines based on Linde's western technology and one line with a capacity of approximately 1 MTA based on NOVATEK's own Arctic Cascade technology.

Pipeline gas exports collapse 38% - all-time record

Before the sanctions imposed by the EU after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, almost 83% of Russia's total pipeline exports went to Europe, and the total export volume, taking into account the CIS countries, exceeded 200 billion cubic meters.

In 2022, pipeline gas exports fell by 38% YoY - a record decline in history, even covering the period of the USSR.

Russia supplies pipeline gas in three directions: Europe, the CIS and China. The capacity of the CIS market is 25-30 billion, where the main consumer is Belarus, importing 18-20 billion cubic meters.

Given the weakness and low capacity of the CIS economies, there is no potential for growth here. In 2022, gas exports to these countries even decreased by 6.5% from 27.1 to 25.3 billion cubic meters.

Europe 167 billion cubic meters were delivered to countries, taking into account Turkey in 2021, and in 2022 exports fell by half to 85.4 billion cubic meters

Growth in gas exports to Spain by 45%

Gas exports from Russia to Spain grew by 45% from January to December 2022 compared to the same period last year - data from the Spanish energy company Enagas.

Russia has reduced the supply of helium abroad

In 2022, Russia exported 696 thousand cubic meters of helium, which is 14.2% less than the volume of supplies a year ago at 812 thousand cubic meters. This is evidenced by the data that BusinesStat analysts presented in October 2023. Read more here.

Growth in revenues from gas exports to the EU to $44.6 billion in 10 months with a decline in physical exports by 55%

Cumulative gas exports from Russia EU January to October 2022 amounted to $44.6 billion against $19.7 billion in 2021 - a 55% decrease in physical exports was offset by an increase in weighted average prices by 4.5 times.

Since October 2022, a strongly negative trend is near-zero exports in physical terms and a drop in gas prices.

Growth in gas exports to China by 173% in 10 months

In the first 10 months of 2022, gas supplies from Russia to China increased by 173%, the Chinese Ambassador to the Russian Federation said. The diplomat stressed that China "will never allow external forces to interfere in energy cooperation" with Russia.

China has become the world's largest consumer and importer of natural gas, which is the most important factor for strengthening the Russian-Chinese gas cooperation.

EU LNG exports rise to record highs

In 2022, Russian LNG exports to the EU reached a three-year high of 19.2 billion cubic meters.

European countries in the period from January to October 2022 increased imports of Russian liquefied natural gas by 42% compared to the same period in 2021, the total volume of LNG supplied from Russia in the first 10 months of 2022 amounted to a record 17.8 billion cubic meters. m.

In January-September 2022, the European Union imported 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from Russia. This is 50% more than in the same period last year.

Later, LNG imports from Russia to Europe rose to a new all-time high, the German edition of Handelsblatt reported in early December 2022. This year, the eurozone countries paid a record 27 billion euros for Russian LNG.

According to Icis, a company that researches the energy market, since the beginning of the year, the European Union and Britain have increased imports of Russian LNG by 21%.

In November 2022, Russia exported 1.85 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe according to Bruegel, which is 55% more than November 2021 and almost 1.9 times higher than November 2020 and close to the historical maximum set in March 2022 (1.96 billion cubic meters).

But what is 1.8-2 billion cubic meters of gas per month? From January to November 2022, Russia exported over 17.8 billion cubic meters of LNG to EU countries, while typical pipeline gas supplies were earlier than 150-170 billion cubic meters per year.

In 2022, pipeline gas supplies to Europe fell by 55% from January 2022 to December 16, 2022, or minus 80 billion cubic meters; by the end of the year, 84-85 billion cubic meters will supply losses.

Accordingly, in order to replace the shortfall in pipeline gas supplies, LNG exports must grow almost 5 times from the current record level, which is impossible due to restrictions on the LNG infrastructure.

LNG is the main channel for gas supplies to Europe. By November 2022, LNG imports amounted to almost 12 billion cubic meters per month, repeating the highs of April 2022 - this is almost twice as high as in 2021. For the first time in the entire time of gas trade with Europe, LNG supplies significantly exceeded pipeline gas supplies from Russia.

At the same time, since June, LNG supplies from the United States have exceeded gas supplies from Gazprom. Gas balances are changing significantly, switching to LNG is taking place, an appropriate infrastructure is being built for this and logistics are being optimized.

Despite the sanctions, Russia's share in LNG is over 15% and remains at a stable level in 2022, while the share of pipeline gas is extremely falling.

Algeria overtakes Russia in terms of gas supplies to Europe through pipelines

Decrease in Gazprom's exports to Europe by 53% with revenue growth

From January to November 22, 2022, Gazprom's total supplies to Europe collapsed by 53% YoY, and from the beginning of September, when Nord Stream was finally turned off, supplies collapsed 5 times relative to 2021 and 7 times below potential.

71 billion cubic meters have already been lost, by the end of December, losses will amount to another 13-14 billion cubic meters in comparison with 2021, i.e. for the year minus 85 billion supplies to Europe. If everything goes as it has been since September, then pipeline deliveries could amount to 30 billion cubic meters in 2023, compared with 150 billion in 2021 and 180-190 billion potential.

Accordingly, the gas war cut 120 billion cubic meters per year. How much is that?

The design capacity of Power of Siberia is 38 billion cubic meters per year, and in 2022 Gazprom, according to the current contract with the Chinese CNPC, must supply at least 15.6 billion cubic meters. The estimated volume of gas supplies to China from Gazprom may amount to about 17 billion cubic meters in 2022.

To compensate for the European direction, it is necessary to the current Power of Siberia for three more similar pipes and bring them to full capacity or increase deliveries to China 7 (SEVEN) times relative to the 2022 base, which is 70% higher than 2021 (17 billion in 2022 against 10.4 billion in 2021).

This is significant, so do not underestimate the scale of the drop in supply to Europe, Spydell Finance noted.

At the same time, since June, the restoration of gas exports from Russia in monetary terms has been noticeable.

In 2021, all positions received 121.4 billion from Europe (coal - 6.6 billion, oil and oil products - 87 billion, gas - 28 billion).

In 2022, in the first nine months, there are already 129 billion, where coal is 6.6 billion (comparable to 2021, but trade was completely stopped in September), oil - 81 billion, and gas - 41 billion dollars.

Russia begins gas supplies to Azerbaijan under a new agreement

In November 2022, it became known that Russia it was starting gas supplies Azerbaijan under a new agreement. The document was signed between "" and the Gazprom state oil company. Azerbaijan SOCAR Deliveries will last until the end of March 2023, Russia will supply 1 billion cubic meters of gas.

LNG export growth in October due to supplies to France, China and Japan

Russian LNG supplies rose in October 2022 to almost a record level.

LNG supplies from Russia rose to their highest since March. France, China and Japan were the main buyers of Russian gas in October.

Gas sales to Germany for a quarter of market price

In September 2022, Russia sells gas in Germany at a price of 54 euros per MWh (about 550 euros per thousand cubic meters). This is about 3 times cheaper than Norway sells it (through the pipeline), and 4.5 times cheaper than on the spot exchange.

Decline in Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries by 38% in 8 months

Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries for 8 months of 2022 amounted to 84.8 billion cubic meters. m. This is 38.8% less than the same indicators over the past year. In the domestic market, demand decreased by 3.3% (by 5.4 billion cubic meters. m).

Japan LNG export growth of 211% in August

Japan in August 2022 purchased 211.2% more LNG from Russia in quantitative terms compared to August 2021, follows from trade statistics published by the country's Ministry of Finance.

Russian gas supplies to China hit historic record in August

Russian gas supplies to China in August 2022 reached a historic record for a total of $409.37 million. After the Western embargo on coal and oil from the Russian Federation, domestic companies redirected the export of volatile hydrocarbons to the East.

Despite generous discounts for friendly countries, Russia is making record export profits amid the general rise in world prices.

Record decline in exports to Europe during the repair of Nord Stream

Gas exports from Russia to Europe in July 2022 fell to a 40-year low.

The United States for the first time supplied more gas to the EU than Russia

In June 2022, the United States for the first time supplied more gas to the EU than Russia.

Gazprom's high revenues from supplies to the EU, despite a 75% reduction in supplies

Despite a sharp (about 75%) reduction in gas exports to Europe, by the end of May 2022, Gazprom still continues to earn at least 100 million euros per day on the EU.

Which countries have not yet agreed to pay for gas in rubles

The largest gas buyers from Russia

Putin signs decree selling gas to unfriendly countries for rubles

Why was it decided to sell gas for rubles? There have been several claims about the seizure of energy proceeds from the American ambassador to special accounts. He coordinates sanctions against Russia.

The new form of payment will reduce the risk of European banks blocking payments in euros.

From April 1, 2022, the payment is as follows:

• companies from unfriendly countries open a special account in Gazprombank, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia  from April 1, 2022 established a regime of bank accounts of type "K" for settlements with foreign buyers for natural gas
• funds in the currency specified in the contract are transferred to this special account.
• Gazprombank sells currency from this account on the exchange
• the proceeds rubles are credited to another special account from which the funds are debited in favor of the gas supplier.

As a result, payments will be made in foreign currency, without the risk of blocking.

The indignation of Europeans can be understood, since the contracts of such a scheme did not provide. But the seizure of funds from the National Welfare Fund and accounts of state banks in Russia was not provided for. Otherwise, it may turn out that gas is supplied, but there is no money.

Germany announced a plan to abandon Russian gas and coal

On February 24, 2022, the German Federal Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection announced the country's refusal to use Russian energy resources (coal and gas). The reason is the beginning of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Read more here.

2021

Leading countries in the purchase of Russian gas

List of leading countries in the procurement of Russian natural gas by pipeline:

• Germany - in 2021 purchased 48.2 billion cubic meters. m, 23.7% of total Russian gas exports;
• Turkey - 26.8 billion cubic meters. m, 13.2%;
• Belarus - 19.8 billion cubic meters. m, 9.7%.

Share of gas exports from Russia - 6.2% of the world market

Gas export growth 2.1 times to $54.2 billion

At the end of 2021, the price of gas exported from Russia increased 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7).

Russia among the largest exporters of LNG

Gas exports to South Korea

Hungary signed a contract with Gazprom for the supply of gas bypassing Ukraine

in Hungary September 2021, she signed a Gazprom new contract with "" for a period of 15 years for the supply of 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas bypassing. Ukraine The agreement comes into force on October 1. It will be possible to change, supplement or extend the contract in ten years.

Kyiv, against the background of the contract between Budapest and Gazprom, allowed a complete stop of gas transit to Hungary through Ukraine.

Gas prices in Europe soared due to Russia's refusal to increase transit through Ukraine

Gas prices in Europe after a month-long respite in July 2021 again rushed into the stratosphere. On Thursday, the cost of gas futures on the London ICE exchange exceeded $500 per thousand cubic meters amid growing demand, a shortage of LNG supplies and Gazprom's refusal to increase pumping through Ukraine.

Contracts for August, tied to the price of gas at the EU's largest hub TTF, reached $501 per thousand cubic meters (40.87 euros per thousand kWh), showing an increase of 3% per day and 10% since the beginning of the week.

Relative to January, gas in the EU has risen in price by 150%, and when compared with the lows of last summer - almost four times. A new round of the gas rally began on Monday, when Gazprom once again ignored the proposal for additional transit through Ukraine. Now the company pumps 109 million cubic meters per day through the Ukrainian GTS (under a long-term contract) and another 15 million - on super-planned armor. Since spring, Kyiv has regularly held auctions, offering Gazprom to order more than 60 million cubic meters per day of transit capacity. But over and over again he meets with refusal.

Russia is set to switch flows to Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible and avoids using more expensive routes through Ukraine and Poland. That pushes prices up as demand rises and storage is devastated.

As of June 26, UGS Europe had 50 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 35 billion less than last year and 15 billion lower than the average over the past five years. The situation is aggravated by unplanned supply interruptions from the Norwegian Troll field, a key source of alternative gas for Europe, experts at NatGasIntel point out.

Imports of liquefied gas to Europe remain 20% lower than last year, since all free volume is taken by Asia, where quotes are even higher: on the spot market they reach $539 per thousand cubic meters, while futures for February-2022 are trading at almost $600.

Take-off of Gazprom's exports in the 1st quarter

Russian gas supplies to key Gazprom customers in the first quarter of 2021 set a 3-year record.

For three months, Gazprom pumped 52.7 billion cubic meters in the western direction - 12.4 billion (30%) more than a year earlier. The volume of exports only slightly missed the absolute maximum shown in 2018 - 54.25 billion cubic meters.

Germany increased purchases of Russian gas by a third, to 15.54 billion cubic meters. Deliveries to Turkey soared by 106%, to 7.76 billion cubic meters. Poland increased imports by 18.5%, to 2.45 billion cubic meters.

It was exported to Finland by 67% more than in the first quarter of 2020, to Romania - by 90%, to Bulgaria - by 52%, to Greece - by 23%. "The main factor that influenced the large-scale selection from UGS this winter was weather, or rather, abnormal frosts that hit Europe. On certain days of January and February, over 1 billion cubic meters of m per day were selected from UGS, and on January 15, the fourth daily indicator of sampling from UGS in Europe in the history of observations since 2011 was recorded, "experts from the Skolkovo Power Center say.

In addition, a noticeable drop in LNG imports, which poured into Asia, where prices at the moment rose above $1,000 per thousand cubic meters, affected. In March, 8 billion cubic meters of regasified liquefied gas were delivered to the EU - 20% less than a year earlier and in February. By April, Europe's storage facilities had approached just over a quarter full. This means that in the summer it will be necessary to pump 65-70 billion cubic meters of gas, according to Skolkovo.

2020

Which countries in Europe depend on Russian gas

Gas sales brought Russia $25.1 billion - at least since 2004

According to the Central Bank, the sale of gas in 2020 brought Russia $25.1 billion - at least since 2004.

At the end of 2020, Gazprom pumped 179.3 billion cubic meters of gas to far abroad - the minimum volume over the past five years. In physical terms, exports fell by 10%, and in monetary terms - by 40% due to a sharp decline in prices in Europe, which in the spring went below the point of profitability of Gazprom (about $100 per thousand cubic meters).

Russia overtook the United States for the first time in terms of LNG supplies to Europe - 22 million tons against 20 million tons

At the end of 2020, Russia for the first time overtook the United States in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. This was announced by the head of the Shell concern in Russia Sederik Kremers at the presentation of LNG Outlook 2021.

The presentation said that LNG supplies to Europe in 2020 amounted to about 84 million tons, of which 22 million tons fell on Russia and 20 million tons on the United States.

These are LNG supplies to Europe. Usually, half of these supplies are in the United States and Russia, but in 2020 you can see that Russian LNG was supplied in slightly larger volumes than American. This happened for the first time, - said Sederik Kremers (quoted by TASS Information Agency of Russia).

LNG Outlook 2021 reports that LNG demand in Europe will grow until 2040, and the share of pipeline gas will decrease slightly. This will mainly happen due to a drop in supplies from Norway and North Africa.

In addition, a decrease in domestic natural gas production in Europe is predicted, and the volume of Russian pipeline gas supplies will remain at the same level.

According to estimates by the Federal Customs Service (FCS), exports of liquefied natural gas from Russia in 2020 increased by 4.5% in annual terms to 68.3 million cubic meters. Revenues from its sale amounted to $6.75 billion, which is 15% lower than in the same period of 2019.

According to the Refinitiv Eikon system, the largest LNG producer in Russia - Yamal LNG - exported 18.3 million tons (40.8 million cubic meters) in 2020.

Gazprom in 2020, according to the company's own data, exported 7 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), by 2025 plans to more than double this figure.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously reported that Russia plans to increase the production of liquefied natural gas from 29 million tons to 120-140 million tons per year by 2035 and occupy up to 20% of the market.^[5]

Collapse of exports through Ukraine. GTS capacity fully paid by Gazprom

The transit of Russian gas from January to April 2020 through the Ukrainian gas transmission system (GTS) fell to 15.5 billion cubic meters, or 40% compared to the same period last year.

In April, gas transit from the Russian Federation through the territory of Ukraine amounted to 4.4 billion cubic meters. m, which is 1% less than in March 2020 and 46% less than in April 2019.

The company notes that since the beginning of 2020, gas transit capacities from the Russian Federation have been fully paid by the Russian Gazprom in accordance with the new transit contract.

The fall in Gazprom's revenues from gas exports in January-February by 51%

Gazprom's revenues from gas exports in January-February 2020 fell by 51% to $5 billion.

2019

Russia is the largest supplier of gas to the EU with a share of 41%

Gazprom sells gas to Gazprombank in Europe for $1 billion to fulfill export plan

The reduction in demand for Russian gas in Europe, the collapse of spot prices at gas hubs and the cash gap in the budget by tens of billions of rubles led Gazprom to sell the gas to itself.

At the end of 2019, Gazprom sold gas To Gazprombank for 65 billion rubles (1.05 billion dollars at the exchange rate at the end of the year).

The bank, which the company owns 35% directly, and another 47% through the Gazfond pension fund, purchased 7.6 billion cubic meters of export fuel, which was pumped into European storage facilities, but did not find a final consumer.

European subsidiaries of the bank - Gazprombank (Switzerland) Ltd and GPB Financial Services Limited - bought gas under repo agreements. The deals began in August, when Gazprom's export plan was in jeopardy.

At the beginning of the year, the head of the company, Alexei Miller, promised to repeat the 2018 record, selling at least 200 billion cubic meters. But by the end of June, supplies fell 4 billion cubic meters, to 97.7 billion cubic meters, and besides, the company became unprofitable in terms of cash flows: capital construction costs exceeded revenues from operating activities by 55 billion rubles. In the third quarter, the cash gap increased to 166 billion rubles.

Gazprombank's money came to Gazprom's deficit budget and provided the concern with 4% of annual exports (7.6 out of 199.2 billion cubic meters). Excluding it, supplies would have decreased by 10.2 billion cubic meters (5%) compared to 2018 and were below the level of 2017 by 3.1 billion cubic meters (1.5%).

Through REPO operations with Gazprombank, Gazprom attracts liquidity, Deputy Chairman of the Board Famil Sadygov explained in September. "For the company, these transactions are a tool for managing working capital, allowing you to monetize your own gas reserves during periods of low demand," he said.

Selling gas to itself, allowing you to fulfill the export plan, is becoming the norm for Gazprom. In the same way, the company acted at the end of 2019 to report on reaching a record export and breaking the 200 billion cubic meters bar per year.

The head of Gazprom Alexei Miller promised to sell such a volume abroad, but by December 27 only 196.8 billion cubic meters had been sold. A solution was found: Gazprom sold 4.9 billion cubic meters to its own subsidiary Gazprom Marketing & Trading. The company confirmed the transaction and attributed it to "conducting trading operations."

Why gas demand is growing

According to the International Energy Agency, natural gas was the leader in the category of fossil fuels in terms of consumption growth rates for the period from 2006 to 2019. We can expect that gas demand will continue to grow in 2020, mainly due to increased consumption in Asia, and especially in China, Beijing's environmental policy provides for very ambitious goals to reduce polluting emissions and the mandatory transition of the entire country from coal to gas.

Gas is very popular due to its prevalence, usability and relatively low degree of environmental hazard. Thus, in comparison with coal, natural gas during combustion produces 40% less carbon dioxide (CO2), fine particles (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). That is why gas is often used as an auxiliary or spare energy source in energy networks powered by solar panels or wind generators, which are known to be able to supply current with significant interruptions.

Gas is also one of the key raw materials in the petrochemical industry. For 2019, natural gas and its by-products account for about 29% of the total fossil fuels used in the chemical industry.

Gazprom export decline by 38% in the second quarter

The second quarter of 2019 turned out to be a failure for Gazprom's revenue from gas exports: revenues fell by 38% compared to the first quarter. The loss is really colossal: the former $14.1 billion against the current $8.7 billion. Such negative dynamics is associated with a decrease in gas exports to non-CIS countries by 5.9%. But the biggest damage came from a sharp drop in energy costs. Gas prices in the European Union fell to absolute lows over the past 10 years. It will sound unexpected, but the domestic gas monopoly easily overcomes the gigantic decline in revenue.

The reason lies in the uniquely low cost of Russian gas. In Europe, only Gazprom was able to sell gas at such a low price and "not fly into the pipe." In the hope of maintaining market share and waiting for prices to recover, American LNG suppliers increased the supply of liquefied gas to European countries by 1.5 times. But they do this to their detriment: operating losses on the supply of gas from the United States to Europe are $37-48 for every 1000 cubic meters. m. They will not be able to work endlessly in the negative, there are already rumors that the construction of new LNG facilities in the States may be postponed.

In fact, low prices squeeze Gazprom's competitors out of the European market without any effort from the latter. This does not apply to the three main gas suppliers to Europe: Norway, Algeria and Qatar. They also export their gas through pipelines, and firmly hold their positions.

2018: Russia's share of gas in Europe reaches more than 35%

Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Anatoly Yanovsky spoke in May 2019 at the conference "Prospects for Energy Cooperation Russia-EU. Gas aspect. " In his speech, Anatoly Yanovsky dwelled on the main challenges for the gas industry of the countries of the European Union.

"First of all, this is the uncertainty of the development of gas demand in the European Union, a decrease in domestic production, an increase in gas production outside the European Union, including LNG, and, as a result, increased competition in the domestic gas market," Anatoly Yanovsky believes.

In this regard, according to the Deputy Minister, many analysts cannot yet say with accuracy how the demand for gas in key EU countries will form in the future.

'Until 2030, the spread in consumption growth forecasts is about a third of the current gas consumption in the European Union. Nevertheless, many experts believe that there is no need to expect an increase in gas demand in the European Union, and the question is different - at what rate this demand will decline. According to preliminary data, the volume of natural gas consumption in Europe decreased compared to 2017 by 19 billion cubic meters or more, by more than 3%. And this decline occurred for the first time after three years of continuous growth, "he said.

At the same time, this in no way influenced the pace of gas imports from Russia, he stressed.

"Against this background, Gazprom's achievements look very impressive, since in 2018 gas exports amounted to more than 200 billion cubic meters of gas, which is almost 8 billion cubic meters more than in the previous year," the Deputy Minister added. - And this happened contrary to massive unfavorable circumstances, not only climatic, but also political, market, as well as taking into account the supply of additional volumes of LNG to this market. At the same time, the largest European manufacturers - the Netherlands, Norway, Great Britain - have reduced their supplies. "

He stressed that Russia continues to increase its share in the European gas market.

'At the end of 2018, the share of Russian gas in Europe's gas consumption reached more than 35%, and in imports - 46%, that is, it is almost half. At the same time, the European Union remains the main consumer of gas from Russia - the share of the EU countries in Gazprom's supplies last year reached more than 86%, which indicates our significant interdependence, and that we must act in a fairly coordinated manner, "said the deputy head of the Ministry of Energy of Russia.

According to the deputy minister, the most stable in all scenarios is the forecast of a decrease in domestic production in the European Union - by 2030 it will be almost halved, and in 2050 it may fall by another third to the level of 2030.

Anatoly Yanovsky expressed confidence that European gas imports will continue to be largely covered by Russian pipeline gas, which is guaranteed by huge gas reserves, high production levels and highly developed infrastructure.

2017: Export to non-CIS countries grew by 8.1% to 193.9 bcm. m.

In 2017, gas exports to foreign countries from Russia increased by 8.1% compared to 2016 and amounted to 193.9 billion cubic meters. m. Export

• to Germany increased by 7.1%,
• to Austria - by 25.0%,
• to the Czech Republic - by 28.0%,
• in Slovakia - by 24.5%,
• to France - by 6.8%,
• in the Netherlands - by 4.6%,
• in Denmark - by 1.9%.

Also, the trend of growth in demand for Russian gas continued to demonstrate the target markets of the Turkish Stream project. Export

• to Turkey increased by 17.3%,
• to Hungary - by 21.3%,
• to Bulgaria - by 4.7%,
• to Greece - by 9.3%,
• to Serbia - by 21.2%.

LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific countries in 2017 increased in physical terms by 5.3% to 15.5 million cubic meters (10.9 million tons).

The price of Russian gas on the border with Germany in December 2017 increased by 6.1% compared to last year and amounted to 176.7 euros/thousand cubic meters (166.49 euros/thousand cubic meters in December 2016^[6].

2016

34% share in the EU market

Forecast for zeroing exports to Europe through Ukraine and Belarus

According to Gazprom, in the first seven months of 2016, Russian gas exports to foreign countries increased by 9.5 billion cubic meters, or 10.7% (compared to January - July 2015).

Basic scenario of gas exports from Russia to Europe (Forbes Russia, December, 2016^[7]

In the maximum scenario of new Russian gas pipelines to Europe, both branches of Nord Stream 2 are being built, as well as both branches of Turkish Stream. In this scenario, the Ukrainian GTS becomes unnecessary. Moreover, the supply of Russian gas to Europe through Belarus and Poland also becomes nominally unnecessary after 2025, which undoubtedly explains such an acute reaction of Poland to the prospects for increasing the use of the capacity of Nord Stream-1 and plans for the construction of Nord Stream-2. The point is not at all the gas security of Europe, but the potential loss of transit volumes and the growth of Poland's dependence on Germany as a new transit of Russian gas for Eastern European countries.

2015: Export of Russia 211.5 billion cubic meters - No. 1 in the world

In 2015, Russia sold 211.5 billion cubic meters of gas, becoming the largest exporter in the world. At the same time, Qatar is the leader in terms of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies (106.4 billion cubic meters).

The main Russian supplier is Gazprom, which has the monopoly right to export pipeline gas and sells LNG, competing with Novatek and Rosneft.

Europe remains the largest consumer of Russian gas.

In addition, Gazprom supplies LNG to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and China.

According to the FCS, in 2015 Gazprom exported 185.5 billion cubic meters and earned $41.8 billion. This is 23.5% less than in 2014^[8].

In 2015, European sales of Russian gas increased to 158.6 billion cubic meters.

2012: Europe export growth plan to 154 bcm

Gas exports to Europe, according to Gazprom's calculations, were supposed to increase in 2012 to 154 billion cubic meters. m with 150 bcm. m in 2011

Significant volumes of supplies to foreign countries should be achieved in the longer term. In particular, in accordance with the gas industry development scheme until 2030, Russia will increase gas production by 1.5 times - up to 1 trillion cubic meters. m per year, and exports should increase to 455-520 billion cubic meters. m per year.

At this time, Russia is preparing to increase oil and gas production and exports. Companies producing hydrocarbons are actively taking up the development of not yet mastered and poorly studied offshore projects in the Arctic, completing gas pipelines and oil pipelines, and also planning new projects in this area. The plans also include the development of new sales regions, in particular the Asia-Pacific direction.

2011: Export of 203.9 billion cubic meters (+ 11%), with production of 670 billion

In 2011, the export of Russian gas, as planned, increased significantly. The main impact on this process was some economic recovery in European countries and a cold winter. In January-December 2011, 203 billion 936.2 million cubic meters were exported from the Russian Federation. m, which is 11% more than a year earlier with a production of 670 billion cubic meters. m.

2007: Gazprom officially gains monopoly on gas exports

In 2007, the de facto single gas export channel that existed before was legislated and the implementation of the state monopoly on gas exports was entrusted by the state to the owner of the Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS) represented by Gazprom.

1991: Russia inherits from the USSR a system of gas contracts with European companies

Russia inherited from the USSR a system of gas contracts between the Soviet Ministry of Oil and Gas with European companies. Gas delivery points in contracts with Europeans roughly corresponded to the former western borders of the countries of Eastern Europe, which were part of the socialist bloc. Gazprom became the successor to these export contracts and supplemented them with new ones.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union to trade Russia , challenges arose in gas with Europe, which the Russian gas export strategy formed over the next 25 years.

Transit risk

The first and most serious was the unprecedented dependence of Russian gas exports on transit through third countries, primarily through Ukraine. In the early 1990s, more than 90% of Russian gas exports to Europe were carried out through export gas pipelines created in Soviet times in Ukraine. By the end of 2016, as a result of the implementation of the program for the construction of new gas pipelines, only 40% of Russian gas exports go to Europe through Ukraine.

Europe's Game Changer

The second challenge was the formation of a single European economic space and the liberalization of the European gas market, which changed the traditional relations between Russia and importing companies of Russian gas and led to the desire of European customers to modify traditional long-term contracts. Against the background of a record increase in gas prices in Europe in 2009-2014 and a decrease in consumption, Europeans managed to agree with Gazprom on price discounts, which shifted the historical balance of interests in favor of consumers.

Competition from alternative suppliers

The third challenge was the activation of alternative competitor suppliers against the background of the declared goal of the European Union to diversify gas supply sources and reduce dependence on Russia. By the end of 2016, LNG (especially from the United States) was being actively discussed as an alternative to Gazprom's pipeline gas supplies to Europe. According to the results of 2016, American LNG turned out to be uncompetitive in price compared to Russian gas and was practically not supplied to Europe.

1973: Exports to Europe 6.8 bcm

By 1973, European sales of Soviet gas reached 6.8 billion cubic meters.

1972: Gas-Pipes agreement signed by Secretary General Brezhnev and German Chancellor Brandt

In 1972, Leonid Brezhnev and German Chancellor Willy Brandt entered into the Gas - Pipes agreement, which allows the export of Soviet gas to Western Europe.

1968: Contract with the Austrian OMV for export to Western Europe

In 1968, under a contract with the Austrian company OMV, exports to Western Europe began.

1940s: First gas export - Poland

The first gas supplies outside the USSR started in Poland in the mid-1940s.

Read also

• Oil and gas production
• Oil production in Russia
• Refining in Russia
• Petroleum products in Russia

• Oil exports from Russia
• Nord Stream AG (Nord Stream)
• South Stream AG
• Turkish Stream (TurkStream)
• Power of Siberia
• Baltic Pipe
• TANAP Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline

• Technologies in the Gas Industry
• Technologies in the Russian oil industry

• US and EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas sector
• Foreign sanctions against Russian citizens and companies

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