Computers (Global Market)

Main article: Computer

Market segments

TAdviser presents information on various segments of the global computer market.

2024: How the world is heading for the age of AI computers

Computer manufacturers are preparing for the advent of the era of personal computers and workstations with artificial intelligence. Such devices are expected to significantly benefit certain categories of employees who solve resource-intensive tasks. These could be content creators, data analysts and developers. The prospects for the development of the industry are stated in a study by Forrester, the results of which were published at the end of March 2024.

It is noted that certain AI algorithms are already used in modern applications to perform certain operations, such as background blur, noise cancellation, etc. However, as of early 2024, most AI tasks are solved through cloud services. The emergence of a PC with artificial intelligence will transform the existing concept by transferring loads to local equipment.

Computer manufacturers are preparing for the advent of the era of personal computers and workstations with artificial intelligence

By March 2024, about 50 PC models with AI functions are on the market. Forrester understands such devices as systems equipped with a specialized chip and algorithms designed to accelerate AI operations based on central processing units (CPUs), graphics accelerators (GPUs) and neuroprocessor units (NPUs). Such PCs promise to improve employee productivity and simplify many routine tasks. For AI, many application options are considered - from generating this or that content to writing program code.

Local launch of generative AI (Genia) tools opens up new possibilities. In particular, delays are reduced when using auxiliary equipment such as cameras, microphones, etc. Additional advantages will be provided by chips developed with an eye specifically on AI applications. According to Gartner estimates, in 2024, global sales of AI chips will reach $71.25 billion, rising 33% compared to 2023. And in 2025, costs in the segment under consideration may grow to $91.96 billion.

The Forrester study notes that the introduction of AI chips into personal computers will help improve the performance and efficiency of traditional content processing functions. So, thanks to the sharing of CPU, GPU and NPU resources, tools such as object allocation against a common background can be improved. In addition, new intelligent content processing tools can be implemented, including portrait blurring, automatic cropping, lighting settings, etc. Adding NPUs will also help increase battery life of laptops by optimizing AI operations. Monitoring component clock speeds, fan speed and temperature will allow AI algorithms to effectively adjust performance based on current load and operating conditions. Local launch of AI models will reduce delays compared to cloud platforms and allow employees to access them without an Internet connection.

Another advantage of integrating AI technologies into personal computers is the ability to provide personalized experiences. Over time, devices will be able to anticipate the needs and behavior of users and adapt accordingly to a specific employee. Forrester believes AI computers will be able to offer users recommendations on how best to structure your day to ensure optimal performance.^[1]

2023

The volume of the global market for educational computers for the year grew by 5%, to $32.82 billion

In 2023, the global computer market for the educational sector reached $32.82 billion. This is about 5% more compared to 2022, when the costs in this sector were estimated at $31.32 billion. Industry drivers are the increased use of digital technology in education and the increasing popularity of personalized learning. This is stated in a study by Market Research Future, the results of which were published at the end of October 2024.

Digital platforms, e-books and interactive software applications are becoming an integral part of the modern educational process. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this transformation as schools and universities have had to adapt to distance learning. This has led to an increase in demand for all kinds of educational devices - desktops, laptops and Chromebooks, as well as tablets. Faculty and students quickly appreciated the benefits provided by digital systems, such as flexible access to resources from anywhere with an Internet connection, interactive learning opportunities, and collaborative tools. In addition, the continuous development of related services and software allows you to apply various training methods aimed at maximizing results.

Another stimulating factor, the authors of the study call government initiatives aimed at improving educational infrastructure and encouraging the use of digital technologies in classrooms. Grants from the authorities make it easier to purchase equipment and update the existing computer fleet. Partnerships between hardware manufacturers and educational content providers also create an additional need to acquire educational computers.

In 2023, in the total volume of the market, laptops provided the largest contribution - approximately $10 billion. Almost the same amount fell on tablets - $9.5 billion. Desktop sales are estimated at $7.82 billion. Chromebooks (portable computers running Chrome OS) brought in $5.5 billion. Analysts believe that against the background of the further development of the global market for computing devices for education, competition between these types of equipment will increase. Among various software platforms, Windows occupies the lion's share in educational institutions due to the wide compatibility with software and resources necessary for training. In addition, iOS holds significant positions - especially in environments using the Apple ecosystem. Among the leading players in the market under consideration are:

• Oracle;
• Samsung;
• Asus;
• Dell;
• Apple;
• Microsoft;
• HP;
• IBM;
• Toshiba;
• Nokia;
• Sony;
• Acer;
• Xiaomi;
• Google;
• Lenovo.

Geographically, in 2023, North America leads with an estimate of $12 billion, which is largely due to advances in technology and strong educational infrastructure. This is followed by Europe with costs of $9 billion, and the Asia-Pacific region closes the top three with $8 billion. South America provided approximately $2 billion in total revenue, the Middle East and Africa - $1.82 billion.

At the end of 2024, expenses on the global computer market for the educational sector are estimated at $34.4 billion. Market Research Future analysts believe that in the future, the CAGR (average annual growth rate in complex percentages) will be 4.81%. As a result, by 2032, costs on a global scale will reach $50.1 billion.^[2]

8.8% drop in computer workstation sales

At the end of 2023, sales of computer workstations on a global scale decreased by approximately 8.8% compared to 2022. This is due to the difficult macroeconomic situation, high inflation and the crisis in various regions around the world, as stated in the IDC study, the results of which were released on March 13, 2024.

Analysts take into account shipments of both desktop systems and laptops positioned as mobile workstations. The COVID-19 pandemic initially helped stimulate demand and contributed to an increase in the supply of such devices: as a result, in 2022, a record sales volume was recorded - more than 7.6 million units. However, shipments declined to about 7 million units in 2023.

The report says that in the first half of 2023 there was a sharp decline due to weak demand: corporate customers were forced to cut IT budgets due to market uncertainties. In addition, certain warehouse stocks were formed in the supply lines. The situation began to stabilize in the second half of 2023, when there was an increase in demand for entry-level desktop workstations and mobile devices. In particular, in the fourth quarter, sales reached 1.85 million units, an increase of 6.1% compared to the last quarter of 2022. Thus, a series of five quarters with negative dynamics was interrupted, but the demonstrated growth was not enough to compensate for the decline in 2023 as a whole. As a result, 2023 recorded one of the most significant reductions in the global workstation market since IDC began collecting relevant statistics in 2008.

2023 has undoubtedly been a difficult year in many ways. However, in the workstation segment, it ended with positive dynamics and signs of improvement in the future, "says Jay Chou, IDC research manager.

Analysts highlight several factors that can contribute to higher sales. In the fall of 2025, support for operating system Windows 10 is completed, and therefore many corporate users are expected to speed up the transition to Windows 11. This will drive sales of desktop and mobile workstations. In addition, the growth in demand in this segment will be driven by the release of new processors and next-generation graphics accelerators. The increased need for high-performance systems is also facilitated by the rapid development of artificial intelligence. In general, as noted in the study, the workstation segment is more stable compared to the personal computer market as a whole.

At the end of 2023, Dell became the leading supplier of workstations on a global scale: however, by the end of the year, sales of systems from this manufacturer decreased slightly. In second place in the ranking of leading suppliers is NR, and Lenovo closes the top three, which has suffered due to the weakening Chinese market.

IDC analysts believe that in 2024, shipments of workstations worldwide will rise by about 5.2% compared to the previous year, reaching 7.4 million units. In 2025, an increase of another 7.9% is expected, as a result of which deliveries will approach 8 million units. During 2022-2028, the CAGR (compound percentage CAGR) is projected at 2%. At the same time, experts say, after 2025, sales growth rates will slow down somewhat.^[3]

Market drop 13% to 246.99 million PCs

In 2023, sales of personal computers globally amounted to approximately 246.99 million units. This is 13% less than the previous year, when shipments were estimated at 283.71 million units. Various factors had a negative impact on the industry, including a decrease in consumer purchasing power and a reduction in the IT budgets of corporate customers. At the same time, there were signs of recovery of the industry, as stated in a study by Canalys, the results of which were released on January 10, 2024.

The report notes that by the end of 2023, sales of PCs (desktops and laptops began to increase): in the fourth quarter they amounted to 65.25 million units, which is 3.1% more compared to the last quarter of 2022, when 63.3 million units were sold. Analysts emphasize that the adjustment of inventory throughout 2023 helped to ensure positive dynamics by the end of the year.

2023 has not been an easy year for the PC industry, but companies have remained resilient and can now look forward to improved sales. The optimism of key players is confirmed by a stronger festive season than in 2022. As macroeconomic conditions continue to improve, companies and ordinary consumers who have delayed purchases for a long time are now ready to resume purchasing equipment, says Himani Mukka, research manager at Canalys.

The largest PC supplier in 2023, according to Canalys, is Lenovo with 59.11 million computers sold and a 23.9% share. A year earlier, the company shipped 67.73 million computers, and the share was also 23.9%. Sales in relation to 2022 decreased by 12.7%. In second place in the ranking is, HP whose shipments fell by 4.2% on an annualized basis - from 55.2 million to 52.89 million units. At the same time, the share increased from 19.5% to 21.4%. Closes the top three, Dell which experienced a drop of 19.6%: sales decreased from 49.75 million to 39.98 million units, and the share decreased from 17.5% to 16.2%. In fourth place is, Apple which delivered 23.2 million PCs in 2023 against 27.02 million in 2022: this corresponds to a decline of 14.1%. The market share decreased from 9.5% to 9.4%. In fifth place is Asus with a drop at 20.6%: shipments collapsed year-on-year from 20.56 million to 16.32 million units, and the share in the world market decreased from 7.2% to 6.6%.

Thus, Canalys notes, all leading computer suppliers showed negative dynamics in 2023. Other players combined sold 55.5 million PCs, which is 12.5% less compared to 2022, when deliveries amounted to 63.45 million units.

IDC analysts also speak about a significant reduction in the global PC industry at the end of 2023. According to their estimates, sales, taking into account not only desktops and laptops, but also workstations, were at the level of 259.5 million units against 301.5 million units in 2022. Thus, the fall is 13.9%. The five largest manufacturers according to IDC are as follows: Lenovo (share of about 22.7%), HP (20.4%), Dell (15.4%), Apple (8.4%) and Asus (6.5%).

Analysts believe that the driver of the industry in 2024 will be artificial intelligence tools. This applies primarily to the commercial sector, where the advantages of AI related to performance, security and cost management will be a key factor in improving the efficiency of business processes. It is expected that one in five PCs delivered in 2024 will be equipped with AI in one form or another.^[4]

PC sales in the world fell below 250 million units for the first time since 2006 - to 241.9 million units

In 2023, the global supply of personal computers amounted to approximately 241.9 million units. This is 14.8% less than the previous year, when shipments were estimated at 284.1 million units. Such data are given in a study by Gartner, the results of which were published on January 10, 2024.

Analysts call 2023 the worst year in PC history. Computer sales globally fell below 250 million units for the first time since 2006. Gartner takes into account sales of desktops and laptops running Windows, macOS and Chrome OS operating systems.

It is noted that the global PC market experienced a boom during the COVID-19 pandemic. Customers actively purchased additional computer equipment both for distance learning and remote work, and for entertainment. However, after the easing of restrictions imposed in response to the spread of the coronavirus, a sharp decline followed. Other factors also had a negative impact on the industry - the difficult macroeconomic situation, high inflation and the geopolitical situation. As a result, in 2023, the personal computer industry hit rock bottom.

The PC market over the past two years [by the end of 2023] has experienced a period of significant adjustment after unusually high growth between 2020 and 2021. Inventories were normalized in the fourth quarter of 2023, which remained a problem plaguing the industry for two years. This will mean that supply and demand are finally balanced. However, the situation remains uncertain due to the expected increase in component prices in 2024, as well as geopolitical and economic instability, says Mikako Kitagawa, chief analyst at Gartner.

At Lenovo the end of 2023, the world's largest PC manufacturer is with 59.73 million devices sold and a share of 24.7%. On an annualized basis, sales of this company decreased by 13.5%. In second place in the ranking is, HP which supplied 52.9 million computers: this corresponds to 21.9% of the market. Moreover, among the leading players in the HP industry, it showed the smallest drop compared to 2022 - minus 4.5%. Closes the top three - Dell 40.24 million sold PCs and a share of 16.6%. This company has a decline in relation to 2022, on the contrary, turned out to be the most significant - 19.5%. Next comes, Apple which during 2023 shipped 21.88 million devices, taking as a result 9% of the world market. Demand for the company's computers decreased by 18.4% on an annualized basis. The next line in the ranking is occupied, Asus which was able to ship 17.06 million computers and occupy 7.1% of the industry. The decline on an annualized basis is 17.4%. Next comes, Acer whose sales were at around 15.89 million units: this corresponds to a share of 6.6%. Negative annual dynamics was recorded at 15.1%. All other PC suppliers combined in 2023 sold 34.21 million devices, or 14.1% of the total market. The decline compared to 2022 was 21.3%.

Analysts note that a significant decline in Greater China affected the overall market of the Asia-Pacific region: its decline was double-digit number of percent compared to 2022. The difficult geopolitical situation has a negative impact on the European market. At the same time, by the end of 2023, there were signs of recovery of the industry. According to the results of the last quarter of this year, global shipments of PCs rose by 0.3% on an annualized basis, reaching 63.37 million units.^[5]

For the second year, demand for computers is falling around the world

Global PC shipments declined by 9% in the third quarter of 2023, according to analyst firm Gartner. The total volume of supplies amounted to 64.3 million units, which is 6.3 million less compared to the same period in 2022. At the same time, the segment is showing a downward trend for the eighth quarter in a row. On October 12, 2023, TAdviser was informed about this by the press service of the State Duma deputy RFAnton Nemkin.

For the second year, demand for computers is falling around the world

Lenovo retains its leadership in sales with a market share of 25.1% and a supply volume of 16.1 million devices. The second place belongs to HP, which took 21% of the market and delivered 13.5 million computers. Closed the top three Dell with a market share of 16.1% and a supply volume of 10.3 million units.

At the same time, Apple demonstrated the steepest drop among the largest manufacturers: deliveries decreased by 24% and amounted to 6.2 million devices with a market share of 9.7%. Next come Asus and Acer, whose shares and shipments amounted to 9.7 and 7.6% and 4.8 and 4.3 million computers, respectively.

The trend towards a decrease in demand for personal computers was outlined at the moment when smartphones of a new generation appeared on the market, said Anton Nemkin, a member of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications.

When there is a small computer at hand in which you can do almost the same things, then the need for a personal computer is reduced. There are many stories of citizens who literally no longer turn on their personal computers for several years, since there is a functional smartphone. In addition, gaming user consumption has also changed. If earlier the PC was used, including for games, now there is great competition from personal computers. Therefore, the purchase of a PC, as a rule, is associated either with a working or educational need, explained Anton Nemkin.

In further quarters, a small growth of the market should be expected, which will increase its stability, the expert believes.

However, such growth should be seen as a natural process. Computers purchased 3-5 years ago will slowly begin to replace. This is also due to the service life of the devices that the manufacturer has determined and with the updates that have entered the market from vendors: for example, Microsoft is actively promoting Windows 11 for October 2023. noted Anton Nemkin.

In Russia, estimates of demand for PCs are quite ambiguous, the deputy recalled.

According to Nemkin, someone believes that in 2022 the segment sank significantly, retailers, on the contrary, note that demand has not only remained, but also increased. It is quite difficult to make estimates regarding the Russian market - at this stage it is being rebuilt, not only the consumption model is changing, but also key manufacturers. This, of course, is a consequence of the import substitution policy. But Russia is not much at odds with the global trend in which the role of smartphones is growing and the role of PCs is falling.

Apple is the leader in the fall in the PC market in the first quarter: - 40%

According to the latest IDC report, shipments from all PC manufacturers combined fell 29% to 56.9 million units - and were below the level of early 2019 - as a surge in demand caused by remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic faded.

Personal computer shipments Apple fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023, marking a tough start to the year for PC manufacturers facing a glut of unsold inventory.

2022

All-in-One PC Market Dips 25%

In 2022, all-in-one (AIO) desktop sales globally collapsed by about 25% compared to the previous year. Such data were released on March 17, 2023 by the DigiTimes Research group.

It is noted that the demand for monoblocks fell sharply by the end of 2022. This is due to the general decline in the global personal computer market, as well as the fact that the bulk of demand in the AIO segment was satisfied in previous years against the background of telecommuting and remote learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, less than 11 million all-in-one computers were sold in 2022, and negative dynamics remain.

At the end of 2022, according to DigiTimes Research, AIO devices accounted for less than 10% of total desktop shipments. In the supply channels, significant stocks of monoblocks were formed, which negatively affected their sales. At the same time, the demand for traditional desktops remained quite high thanks to orders from corporate clients.

The leader in the global monoblock market is: HP but by the end of 2022, sales of AIO systems of this company fell by a quarter. It is noted that HP focused on the sale of inventory, and not on the release of new devices. In second place in the list of leading suppliers of monoblocks was, Lenovo in third place -. Dell Closes the four, from Apple which, like HP, deliveries decreased by 25%: buyers began to purchase expensive equipment less often due to macroeconomic difficulties and high levels. inflations

Quanta Computer, the main ODM all-in-one supplier for HP and Apple orders, showed a serious decrease in shipments by the end of 2022, while its share in the all-in-one segment in Taiwan decreased to 34.4%. Compal Electronics, with a score of 17.6%, took second place, and the third line in the ODM rating went to Wistron.^[6]

Global Workstation Market Updates Record - IDC Data

global shipments of mobile and desktop workstations posted a new record in 2022. This is stated in the IDC study, the results of which were released on March 3, 2023.

It is estimated that approximately 7.7 million workstations of various types were implemented worldwide during 2022, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous year. Thus, the record of 2021 was updated, when deliveries were 7.5 million units. The global workstation industry began 2022 with high dynamics, which then declined due to economic realities, the saturation of the business sector and the general crisis.

Unlike 2021, when mobile workstations became unprecedented in connection with remote work from home, in 2022 the growth was primarily associated with the return of employees to the office: this caused the restoration of the desktop workstation segment, while the mobile device sector remained at the same level. However, the hybrid work model formed in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, according to IDC, will lead to the dominance of the mobile form factor.

Four quarters in a row, the supply of workstations exceeded 2 million units - from the third quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022. This significantly exceeded historical norms, but proved unsustainable in the context of tight budgets and ongoing inflation. We expect that after two years of large purchases, corporate IT departments will become less active in purchasing new devices, and therefore, probably, in 2023, sales will decrease by 4.2%. But, if you do not take into account short-term problems, we believe that the release of new models, the transition to Windows 11 and other factors should lead to market growth from 2024, "said Jay Chou, IDC Research Manager.

At the end of 2022, Dell Technologies ranked first in the list of leading industry players with 3.17 million shipped workstations and a 41.4% share: sales of this company rose by 6.4% on an annualized basis. HP is in second place - 2.58 million devices sold and 33.7%: over the year, the company was able to increase shipments by 1.2%. The top three also includes the Chinese Lenovo with 1.86 million workstations delivered, which corresponds to 24.3% of the market (minus 3.2% in sales compared to 2021). Far behind the leading manufacturers Asus and NEC, which are located in fourth and fifth places respectively with 24.5 thousand and 20.1 thousand stations sold. The shares of both of these companies are approximately 0.3%. Moreover, if the first increased shipments in 2022 by 24.3%, then the second reduced them by 22.7%.

The IDC report says that Dell remained in first place and ended 2022 as the only supplier whose share increased year on year (in 2021 it was 39.8%). The company's measured approach to inventory management has helped it survive the industry downturn and economic challenges better than others. HP continued to focus on mobile form factors, but suffered from earlier aggressive deliveries through distribution channels. Lenovo's share has declined over the year due to a slowdown in demand for its premium models and budget devices. Asus has retained its desktop workstation niche and was able to overtake NEC in 2022. In general, global supplies fell sharply at the end of the year due to the crisis and increased inflation: in such a situation, companies are forced to carefully purchase new equipment, since unnecessary costs can result in additional financial difficulties.^[7]

The global computer market has collapsed at a record

On January 11, 2023, Gartner released the results of a study of the global personal computer (PC) market. In 2022, the global industry showed the most significant annual decline in supplies in the entire history of Gartner statistics since the mid-1990s.

The data presented takes into account shipments of desktops and laptops running Windows, macOS and Chrome OS operating systems. During 2022, it is estimated that approximately 286.2 million such devices were sold worldwide. For comparison: in 2021, sales were 341.7 million units. Thus, the fall on an annualized basis was recorded at around 16.2%.

The total volume of PC deliveries in 2022 was close to the level before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic - in 2019 shipments were significantly lower than 300 million units. The PC industry has experienced very unusual ups and downs over the past 11 years. After a period of rapid growth between 2020 and 2021 due to the [COVID-19] pandemic, the market began to show an obvious downward trend, which will continue until early 2024, said Mikako Kitagawa, chief analyst at Gartner.

Experts highlight several main reasons that provoked a record reduction in the global PC industry. These are, in particular, the expectation of a global recession, rising inflation and higher interest rates. Gartner notes that many consumers already have relatively new computers that were purchased during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the lack of available devices excludes any motivation for buying. As a result, the demand for PCs in the consumer segment in 2022 decreased to the lowest level in recent years.

A similar picture is observed in the corporate sector. Demand for computers among enterprises began to decline in the third quarter of 2022, and subsequently the situation only worsened. Enterprise users extend their PC lifecycle and delay purchases. According to analysts, this means that the business market is likely not to return to growth until 2024.

At the same time, in the first half of 2022, significant stocks of personal computers began to form. The deterioration of the situation in the PC market in 2021, caused by high demand and disruptions in supply chains, was quickly replaced by excessive offers amid a decrease in purchasing power in 2022. All this led to a rapid drop in computer sales in key markets, in particular in the USA, Europe, Africa and Latin America.

At the end of 2022, the Chinese Lenovo remained the largest PC manufacturer with 69.0 million devices sold. The company's share for the year decreased from 24.4% to 24.1%. HP is in second place with 55.6 million computers shipped and 19.4% of the market (21.7% a year earlier). Dell closes the top three - 50.0 million devices and 17.5% of the industry (17.4% in 2021). The rating also includes Apple, Asus and Acer, whose shares in 2022 amounted to 9.8%, 7.2% and 6.5%, respectively. It is noted that all leading suppliers faced a drop in sales with the exception of Apple: this company was able to demonstrate an increase in deliveries on an annualized basis at 3.6%.

A decrease in this scale occurs only when market demand actually fades. Business and consumer confidence in EMEA has collapsed, sending PC shipments plummeting. The massive increase in stocks also greatly limited the possibilities of shipments, since retailers are focused on the sale of existing computers, "said Mikako Kitagawa.[8]

The global PC market collapsed by 16.5%. Leaders

On January 10, 2023, IDC presented the results of a study of the global personal computer market. Sales are declining, which is due to the difficult macroeconomic situation, the crisis in the United States, high inflation and reduced purchasing power.

IDC data takes into account shipments of desktop systems, laptops, and workstations. Tablets, as well as servers with an x86 architecture, are not considered. According to estimates, in 2022 the volume of the industry in unit terms amounted to 292.3 million units. This is 16.5% less than the result for 2021, when shipments were 350.1 million units. Despite such a significant decline, sales still exceeded the values ​ ​ that were observed before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The largest player in the global PC market in 2022 was the Chinese Lenovo with 68.0 million devices sold and a share of approximately 23.3%. In second place is HP, which shipped 55.3 million desktops and laptops and took 18.9% of the industry. Dell Technologies closes the top three - 49.8 million units and 17.0%. In fourth and fifth places are Apple and Asus, which supplied 28.6 million and 20.6 million computers, respectively. Their shares were 9.8% and 7.0%. All other companies jointly sold 70.1 million PCs, taking a total of 24.0% of the market.

The last quarters of decline [in 2022] clearly paint a gloomy picture of the PC market, but in fact, not everything is so bad. 2021 was close to historic supply levels, so any comparison would be skewed. If you look back, there is no doubt that the ups and downs of the computer market will be record-breaking, but there are still many opportunities ahead. We firmly believe that the market has the potential to recover in 2024, and we also see good prospects until the end of 2023, "said Ryan Reith, vice president of IDC Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.

At the same time, IDC notes that demand for PCs remains a problem, since most users have relatively new systems, and the global economy is deteriorating. Therefore, many large suppliers entered 2023 with cautious forecasts. Growth is expected in the commercial segment due to the approaching end of support for Windows 10. In addition, some companies are preparing an update to the computer fleet.

Data on the global PC market in 2022 was also published by the analytical company Canalys. According to her calculations, shipments of desktops and laptops amounted to about 285.1 million units against 341.0 million in 2021, which corresponds to a 16.4% drop. In the desktop segment in 2022, sales fell by 7% to 61.3 million units. The laptop sector decreased by 19% to 223.8 million units.

The rating of leading suppliers in the Canalys version is topped by Lenovo with 68.1 million PCs sold and a 23.9% share. Then HP goes - 55.2 million units and 19.4%, and closes the top three Dell - 49.7 million computers sold and 17.4%. On the fourth line is Apple, which delivered 27.2 million PCs and took 9.5% of the market. Asus is fifth - 20.6 million units and 7.2%. All other industry participants jointly shipped 64.2 million devices, taking 22.5%.

Despite the short-term difficulties, the long-term prospects for the personal computer market remain positive. Shipments in 2022 decreased by 16%, and we expect a further decrease in deliveries in 2023, but in both of these years the total volumes will remain higher than in the era before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As soon as businesses and consumers survive the storm, we expect delayed purchases, which will begin to stimulate the market at the end of 2023 with strengthening in 2024, "said Ishan Dutt, senior analyst at Canalys.[9][10]

12% sales decline in Q2

According to preliminary results from Gartner, global PC shipments amounted to 72 million devices in the second quarter of 2022, which is 12.6% less than in the second quarter of 2021.

"The downturn we saw in the first quarter of 2022 accelerated in the second quarter, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability, inflation and a sharp drop in Chromebook demand. Supply chain failures also continued, but the main cause of PC supply delays changed from a shortage of components to logistics failures, "Gartner.

2021

The global PC market grew by 14.8%, to 348.8 million units

In 2021, the global personal computer market amounted to 348.8 million units, an increase of 14.8% compared to 2020. Shipments of desktops, laptops and workstations in the world were the highest since 2012, according to IDC analysts released in January 2022.

According to them, before the start of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, demand for PCs decreased, as consumers often preferred smartphones to laptops. In 2020, the demand for computers revived due to the fact that the spread of the coronavirus forced people to work and study from home more often.

Consumer demand for computers in emerging markets and global demand in the corporate sector remained strong, while the supply factor became decisive, "comments IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani. - Although demand from consumers and the education sector has declined in some developed markets, we still believe that the PC market as a whole has returned to a much higher level than before the pandemic.

According to Tom Mainelli, vice president of the IDC group for research on the IT equipment and consumer devices market, if it were not for logistics problems and a shortage of chips, computer sales could be higher in 2021. By the end of that year, many who wanted to buy PCs were still waiting for the ordered equipment. In the first half of 2022, supplies are likely to remain limited, especially in the corporate sector, where the most stable demand is observed, the expert added.

According to the study, the world's five largest PC manufacturers have retained their places in 2021. Apple showed the highest growth rate (+ 22.1%), while HP Inc recorded the lowest dynamics (+ 9.3%).

Canalys analysts in their assessment of the computer industry confirmed IDC data on the balance of power among vendors. According to Canalys, in 2021, Apple increased PC sales by 28.3%, which was the fastest growth rate in the leading group, and HP Inc. showed a minimum rise in it - by 9.5%.

If 2021 was the year of digital transformation, then 2022 will be the year of digital acceleration, "says Rushabh Doshi, leading analyst at Canalys. - Over the past two years, demand for technology has grown sharply, which still affects supply chains - this affects not only the availability of PCs, but also smartphones, cars and servers. As PC manufacturers overcome an increasingly difficult situation, consumer spending patterns are changing. We see increased revenue in the industry through spending on premium PCs, monitors, accessories, and other technology products that allow us to operate from anywhere, collaborate around the world, and stay super productive. The importance of faster, better, more fail-safe and secure computers has never been as high as it is now, and the industry is willing to innovate and push boundaries to keep that momentum going.

According to Canalys calculations, the volume of the global PC market in 2021 in monetary terms increased by 15% and reached $250 billion against $220 million a year earlier. This rise, as the researchers note, is not an abrupt change in the industry. Shipments of laptops and mobile workstations in 2021 increased by 16% compared to 2020 and amounted to 275 million units. In the segment of desktops and desktop workstations, equipment shipments increased by 7%, to 66 million units. In the period 2019-2021, the annual growth of the global PC market was measured at about 19% per year.^[11][12]

Market growth of 9.9%, to 339.9 million units

In 2021, about 339.9 million personal computers were delivered worldwide, which is 9.9% more compared to 2020. Such data on January 12, 2022 was presented by Gartner analysts, who included desktop PCs (desktops), laptops, Chromebooks and the so-called "ultra-mobile premium devices" like Microsoft Surface (the line includes mainly hybrid devices). At the same time, sales of iPads and other traditional tablets were not taken into account in the study.

According to the researchers, at the end of 2021, the PC market experienced several negative factors, including:

• a 24% drop in computer shipments USA in the fourth quarter;
• problems with the supply of equipment;
• the collapse in demand for laptops running Chrome OS.

However, the fourth-quarter slump only moderated the rise of the computer market slightly in 2021, which saw the highest supply since 2013. The increase in PC shipments during the pandemic was supported by an increase in the average cost of equipment sold (ASP), which led to an increase in revenues and a recovery in the market as a whole, said Mikako Kitagawa, director of research at Gartner.

According to him, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has significantly changed the behavior of consumers and corporate computer users, as people have had to adapt to new ways of working and living.

After the pandemic, some of the new PC use cases will remain a common practice, for example, remote or hybrid mode of operation, taking online courses and communicating with friends and family on the Internet, the analyst said.

As for the leaders of the personal computer market, in 2021 there was only one change in the top 6 manufacturers: Apple was ahead of Acer and took fourth place in the overall standings. Apple-branded PC shipments rose 18.1%, the second growth rate after Asus (+ 21.3%).

In the closing top three Dell , PC sales grew by 17.6% due to the fact that the company is helping success in the markets of Latin America, Asia-Pacific and countries, Europe the Middle East Africa and (). EMEA

Growth dynamics leading Lenovo and HP Inc. turned out to be lower due to the fall of the American computer market at the end of 2021, weak demand for Chromebooks in the educational sector and supply problems, due to which sales of equipment to corporate customers were limited.

2021 was a turning point for the PC market. Computers have truly strengthened in their central role for work, learning and entertainment. The fact that the market has shown double-digit growth compared to the impressive results of 2020, contrary to constant restrictions in terms of supply, convincingly shows how high demand has been for PCs over the past 12 months. If we consider the long-term perspective, the most important events in 2021 were a significant increase in the penetration and use of PCs. Today, computers are used by both younger family members and older people, and in developed markets it has become more common that a person has two or more computers, "said Ishan Dutt, senior analyst at Canalys.

According to Canalys, shipments of desktops, laptops and workstations around the world in 2021 reached 341 million units. This is the best result of the PC industry since 2012. Compared to 2020, the indicators increased by 15%, and compared to pre-pandemic 2019, the increase was 27%.^[13]

2020

Sale of Chromebooks (29.6 million units) exceeded the sale of Apple computers (more than 23 million units)

In 2020, more Chromebooks were sold for the first time than Apple computers. Since distance education has become in demand everywhere in the context of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the demand for Chromebooks has grown to a record high. According to a study published by Finaria, supplies of Chromebooks for the year increased by 74% and reached 29.6 million units. Shipments of laptops and desktops under the Apple brand amounted to a little more than 23 million units.

The fourth quarter of 2020 was a record for Google - 11.2 million Chromebooks were sold, 287% more compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The market leader was HP Inc., which shipped 9.4 million Chromebooks in a year and took 31% of the market. Lenovo is in second place with 6.8 million (22%). Dell closes the top three, which shipped 4.6 million Chromebooks in a year, which corresponds to 15% of the market.

According to GeekWire, citing IDC analysts, in 2020 the share of Chromebooks increased by 4.4 percentage points (from 6.4% to 10.8%), and the share of Apple equipment rose by 0.8 percentage points (from 6.7% to 7.5%). At the same time, the presence of Windows systems decreased by 4.9 percentage points - from 85.4% in 2019 to 80.5% a year later.

In January-March 2020, Windows machines accounted for 87.5% of the global personal computer market. The shares of solutions on macOS and Chrome OS during this time amounted to 5.8% and 5.3%, respectively.

In April-June 2020, the Windows indicator decreased to 81.7%, and for macOS it grew to 7.6%, for Chrome OS - to 10%. In the second half of the year, such dynamics remained. In the third quarter of 2020, 78.9% of PCs sold were based on Windows, and 76.7% three months later. The share of computers on macOS first increased by 8.4% (in the third quarter), and then decreased to 7.7% (in the fourth quarter). The share of Chromebooks continued to increase - up to 11.5% in July-September 2020 and up to 14.4% in October-December.

Experts believe that it was the pandemic that accelerated the development of new technological trends. The increase in the number of jobs and distance learning stimulated the demand for PCs from both business and consumers. Chrome OS challenged Windows' dominance in the low-cost laptop market and was able to dramatically expand its customer base, which was mainly limited to US schools before the pandemic. As a result, demand for Chromebooks in 2020 has moved beyond this small but important part of the PC market in the United States, and 2021 will show whether inexpensive Google laptops can finally take the lead. It should be borne in mind that Apple and Microsoft will also adjust their strategies accordingly.^[14]

The global PC market has grown 5 times stronger thanks to the pandemic

In 2020, according to the research company IDC, the volume of the global personal computer market reached 302.6 million units, an increase of 13.1% compared to 2019. The growth rate rose almost 5 times, which was facilitated by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic - because of it, people began to study and work more often from home, as a result they increased purchases of laptops.

According to experts, previously such a strong rise in the global PC market was observed in 2010, when deliveries increased by 13.7%. Since then, the dynamics have changed significantly. In particular, in the PC industry for six years there was a drop and during the year the growth was zero.

If in 2008 the supply of personal computers, including portable and desktop devices, reached about 300 million units, then in the next few years, against the background of the popularity of tablets and smartphones, the volume of the computer market decreased to 250 million units. Many experts claimed the decline of the PC era, and few expected a revival. However, the PC industry has risen amid the pandemic.

IDC Vice President Ryan Reith says that the allocation of additional funds by the authorities of some countries for the purchase of computers for schools and enterprises can further increase the demand and burden on the PC industry.

According to IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani, by the end of 2020, demand for PCs exceeded production volumes, and supply channels operated at the maximum of their capabilities. Brands and contract manufacturers faced a shortage of components, and logistics problems were also observed. Suppliers were forced to resort to air transportation, which led to an increase in costs, but made it possible to speed up delivery, the specialist said.

Demand is pushing the PC industry forward, with all signs indicating this surge will continue. In 2020, growth was mainly associated with work and learning in remote mode, but one should not forget about the consumer segment. We continue to register record sales of gaming PCs and monitors, and Chromebooks are in demand not only from educational institutions, but also among consumers. Looking back, the pandemic not only stimulated demand in the PC market, but also created new opportunities for its expansion, "said IDC Vice President Ryan Reith, whose words are quoted in a press release.

Against the backdrop of sharply increased demand in the computer industry, there is a shortage of key components, including displays and processors. Experts say that if it were not for this deficit, then the market indicators at the end of 2020 would be even higher. It is noted that the lack of semiconductor components slows down the production of equipment, including computers, televisions and smartphones.

Lenovo remained the largest manufacturer of personal computers in 2020, which accounted for about 24% of shipments. The Chinese company increased the production of this equipment by 12%, and the following HP Inc. - by 7.5%. The share of the American vendor turned out to be 22.4%. Dell closed the top three with a 16.6 percent result. In general, the top 5 PC manufacturers did not change in 2020: in addition to these companies, Apple (4th position in the overall standings, share - 7.6%) and Acer (5th, 6.9%) retained their places.

As explained in the study, the calculation of the volume of computer supplies was made before the release of some financial reports from manufacturers. The sales of desktop PCs, laptops and workstations are considered. Tablets and servers are not counted. Convertible tablets with flip or detachable keyboards are also not considered.^[15]

2019

The desktop market decreased by 3.2% to 93.8 million units

In 2019, manufacturers around the world delivered a total of 93.8 million desktops (desktops; laptops are not counted), which is 3.2% less than a year ago. Such data are contained in the ResearchAndMarkets study.

According to experts, in 2019, a wave of purchases of new PCs was noticed in the corporate sector to replace the old ones due to the transition to Windows 10 due to the end of support for the Windows 7 operating system. It was expected that this factor will spur the sale of desktops at the end of 2019, given that the business segment accounts for 70.5% of the supply of such computer equipment.

However, global desktop sales still declined in 2019. The decline was largely due to a shortage of Intel processors in the second half of the year, as well as due to macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.

In addition, factors such as Britain's exit from the European Union and an increase in the consumption tax in Japan to 10% influenced the readiness of people and companies to purchase desktops in their respective regions.^[16]

The market will still be struggling, but this year's results are clear evidence that traditional PCs remain in demand despite the emergence of new form factors and the popularity of mobile devices, the study says.

 In 2019, the segment of consumer desktop personal computers was going through hard times. Russian consumers were concerned about the situation with real disposable cash revenues. In the commercial segment, there was a positive dynamics in supplies due to a large number of projects and the renewal of computer parks against the background of the completion of support for Windows 7, experts say. ^[17]

All-in-one deliveries fell 3.4% to 13.25 million units

The volume of the global market for personal computers made in a monoblock form factor (the monitor is built into the system unit) in 2019 amounted to 13.25 million units, having decreased by 3.4% compared to 2018 and taking more than 12% in the total supply of PCs of all types. This is evidenced by data from the analytical company Digitimes Research.

Lenovo and Apple remained the leaders in this segment, accounting for more than half of all-in-one sales in the world. Experts do not specify the shares of these and other vendors. It is only indicated that HP Inc. closed the top three largest all-in-one manufacturers in the world, followed by Dell.

Among ODM companies specializing in the assembly of all-in-one PCs, negative trends affected Quanta Computer the most, which suffered due to falling orders from Apple and HP. In addition, Lenovo changed plans for all-in-one systems downward, which affected the dynamics of its ODM partners - Wistron and Compal Electronics.

The situation in the global monoblock market in 2019 has developed unevenly. At the beginning of the year, manufacturers increased the supply of equipment in anticipation of trade duties imposed in the United States on products from China. By the end of the year, shipments were declining, including due to weakening demand for all-in-ones in the corporate sector.

Digitimes Research also calculated that global laptop sales in 2019 increased by 4.1%, but were below expectations due to the continuing shortage of processors and the fact that large computer manufacturers stopped stocking up on equipment for future use due to improved trade relations between the United States and China. 

The outbreak of the coronavirus COVID-19 did not affect the performance of the computer market in 2019, but in 2020 it will certainly affect. A pandemic, a seasonal factor, a shortage of chips and the end of the cycle of updating corporate PCs due to the end of support for Windows 7 could lead to a drop in sales of portable and all-in-one computers, experts say.^[18]

Lenovo became the leader - IDC

The global market for personal computers (desktops, laptops and workstations; hybrid devices are not taken into account) in 2019 reached 266.7 million units, an increase of 2.7% compared to 2018. Moreover, this is the first rise since 2011, when the growth rate was measured at 1.7%. A new leader has appeared in the list of the largest manufacturers, according to data from IDC analysts.

Lenovo took first place in PC shipments in 2019, releasing about 64.8 million devices, up 8.2% from a year earlier. The share of the Chinese vendor was 24.3% against 23.6% of the American HP Inc., which in 2018 received the palm, although it did not break away from the competitor much. In 2019, HP shipped 62.9 million computers, which is 4.8% higher than a year ago.

The report says Lenovo has seen growth in almost all regions outside the Asia-Pacific region, allowing the company to record the highest performance among the largest manufacturers.

HP also managed to end 2019 in the black thanks to the fact that the company was able to cope with the problem of the shortage of Intel processors.

Dell increased its share of the global PC market by 0.5 percentage points, to 17.5%. The main merit of this rise belongs to the American market and high corporate demand in North America and in some other important regions.

Apple and Acer have seen their computer sales decline in 2019. At the same time, Apple's decline in the market is offset by growing demand for iPhones and iPads, analysts say.

Last year turned out to be crazy for the computer market, which led to impressive growth, which occurred after seven years of decline in a row. The market will still be struggling, but this year's results are clear evidence that traditional PCs remain in demand despite the emergence of new form factors and the popularity of mobile devices, said IDC Vice President Ryan Reith.

Global computer sales in 2019 grew over three quarters out of four, which was largely facilitated by the corporate segment. The situation here has improved amid the intensification of the business transition to the Windows 10 operating system due to the completion of support for Windows 7 in January 2020. In particular, three leading PC manufacturers have benefited from this trend. Lenovo, HP and Dell have further strengthened their market position, and their joint share in 2019 exceeded 65%, while in 2018 it was 63%.

The segment of traditional PCs in countries EMEA (the Europe Middle East) Africa continued to grow due to positive results with both desktops and laptops. Despite the deterioration in the Intel processor supply chain, which is expected to affect sales of premium enterprise products, OEMs have succeeded in acquiring the right number of components and helping the regional PC market grow by several percent (less than 10%).

The US PC market also saw an upswing, driven primarily by the end of support for Windows 7, strong supply in the business sector, a seasonal factor and easing concerns about the introduction of duties in the US.

According to analysts, for Canalys the entire 2019, shipments of desktops, laptops and workstations increased by 2.7% and reached 268.1 million units. Experts stressed that this is the first increase in the entire year, registered over the past eight years.^[19]

First market growth in 8 years - Gartner

In 2019, the global personal computer market grew for the first time in 8 years. This is evidenced by Gartner data released on January 13, 2020.

According to analysts, in 2019, manufacturers around the world delivered a total of 261.2 million desktops, laptops and hybrid devices similar to the Microsoft Surface line, which is 0.6% more than in 2018. Prior to this, shipments of equipment fell for seven years in a row.

According to Gartner lead analyst Mikako Kitagawa, the rise was largely due to the fact that companies began updating computer parks to migrate to the Windows 10 operating system. At the same time, many companies in developing countries, including Eurasia, Asia-Pacific and China, have not yet updated their PCs, which opens up opportunities to maintain the growth of the PC market in 2020, the expert noted.

At the same time, the researchers admit negative dynamics and associate it with the end of the cycle of updating corporate systems from solutions for Windows 7 to a hardware platform at the level of Windows 10. In addition, the negative trend will also be held due to economic uncertainty due to trade wars, as well as the ongoing shortage of the latest Intel processors. In addition, Gartner mentioned too high prices for updating home computers for specific consumer tasks, including games.

The three largest computer manufacturers - Lenovo, HP Inc. and Dell - captured 63.1% of the market in terms of quantitative equipment supplies at the end of 2019, while in 2018 this share was measured at 60.2%. Mikako Kitagawa emphasized that Lenovo, HP Inc. and Dell have demonstrated growth in PC shipments in 2019 above the dynamics of the entire market.

Their focus on the corporate market and more profitable positions in component purchases amid processor shortages helped companies perform well throughout the year, the analyst said.

With the exception of the Asia-Pacific region, Lenovo recorded annual PC sales growth in all regions, the study said. In the United States alone, shipments of desktops from the company increased by more than 30% on an annualized basis. This allowed the Chinese vendor to maintain leadership and demonstrate the highest growth rate (+ 8.1%) in computer shipments among the six largest manufacturers.

HP's PC shipments have grown over the last three quarters of 2019. The company holds a leading position in the USA, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Latin America.

Dell increased PC shipments in all regions at a pace above the average dynamics in each region, which was largely facilitated by strong demand for the company's desktops.

Gartner is forecasting a steady decline in the consumer PC market over the next five years, Kitagawa said. He recalled that since mid-2019, there has been a shortage of Intel processors on the market, without this, PC sales growth would be more significant.

Mikako Kitagawa says the emergence of innovative products, such as laptops with folding screens, is a key driver of the growth of the entire computer market. In addition, demand is supported by initiatives that make it easier to operate computers like smartphones. In particular, we are talking about devices that can be constantly turned on and work for a long time without recharging.

Such innovations that change user behavior and create new product segments are something to pay attention to in 2020 and in the future, the analyst is sure.[20]

Countries leading the export of computer devices

2018

Lenovo became the leader - Gartner

On January 10, 2019, the analytical company Gartner published the results of a study of the global personal computer market, from which it became known about the change of leader. Lenovo delivered the most computers in 2018 - 58.5 million units, which is 6.9% more than a year earlier.

HP Inc., which was in first place in 2017, increased shipments of desktops and laptops by 2.1% to 56.3 million, but this was not enough to hold the palm - the American manufacturer slipped to second position with a share of 21.7% against Lenovo's 22.5%.

There was another change in the leading group. ASUS, which in 2017 closed the top 5 largest PC manufacturers, fell out of the top five a year later, being on the sixth line. The Taiwanese company missed Acer ahead. You can find out more about the location of leading vendors in the overall standings from the table below.

According to Gartner estimates, the volume of the global computer market in 2018 amounted to 259.39 million units, a decrease of 1.3% compared to 2017. Sales have been falling for seven years in a row. IDC analysts confirm this prolonged decline.

Gartner senior analyst Mikako Kitagawa cited two main reasons that prevent the PC market from returning to growth. First, the shortage of Intel processors, which manifested itself sharply in the second half of 2018, affects. Due to this shortage, manufacturers failed to meet all the demand for computers in the corporate sector, which arose as a result of the updating of IT equipment in companies.^[21]

We believe that this demand will be postponed to 2019, if, of course, the availability of processors improves, the expert said.

He considers the second negative factor to be political and economic uncertainty in a number of countries. The issue even affected a strong economy like it did and USA affected the most vulnerable groups of buyers, including small and medium-sized businesses, Kitagawa said.

Market drop over 7 years - IDC

In 2018, computer manufacturers delivered a total of 258.5 million desktops, laptops and workstations to the global market, which is 0.4% less than in 2017. Analysts at International Data Corporation (IDC) cited such data in their regular summary of the Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker in January 2019. Sales have been declining for seven years in a row.

According to experts, the PC market performed above expectations thanks to computer upgrades in companies caused by the approaching deadline for Windows 7 support (January 2020). Strong performance in the corporate segment helped offset the decline in the consumer sector.

In all regions except the United States, computer sales exceeded market expectations, although there were problems in the Asia-Pacific region due to the difficult situation in the Chinese commercial market.

Ongoing economic tensions between China and the United States continue to create greater uncertainty in the business environment in the PRC. As demand for Chinese goods in the United States falls, this especially affects manufacturing enterprises of all sizes in China, which, in turn, leads to a reduction in IT purchases by these companies, says IDC analyst Maciek Gornicki. - As a result, we should expect an increase in the pace of decline in the Chinese computer market in 2019. And if the trade war escalates further, its effects could spread to other countries, especially with expected currency fluctuations affecting companies in the region.

The balance of power among the largest computer manufacturers is presented in the table below. It is worth noting that HP Inc. retained its leadership, but the gap from the closest pursuer - Lenovo - was minimal. HP Inc. helped that the company managed to survive the fall of the PC market in the Asia-Pacific region better than many competitors, IDC said in a study.^[22]

2017

Fall within 6 years - Gartner

In January 2018, the analytical company Gartner summed up the results of the past year in the global personal computer market. According to preliminary estimates of experts, manufacturers released over 262.5 million devices in 2017, including desktops, laptops, premium ultra-portable PCs and Windows hybrid devices. The indicator is 2.8% less than in 2016, thus, negative dynamics in the market has been observed for six years in a row.

Researchers are paying attention to the ongoing consolidation of the PC industry. In 2017, the four largest PC vendors controlled 64% of the market, which significantly exceeds the 2011 figure, when the four leading players accounted for only 45% of the total PC shipments.

Market leaders are making savings through larger scale of production and take advantage of this to displace smaller manufacturers, says Gartner lead analyst Mikako Kitagawa.

The largest PC manufacturer in 2017 was HP Inc., which supplied more than 55 million computers, or 21% of the global total. Compared to 2016, shipments from HP increased by 4.6%, and the share increased by 1.5%, which allowed the American vendor to bypass its Chinese competitor Lenovo, which in 2016 topped the rating.

Lenovo dropped to second place with an annual result of 54.7 million PC devices and a share of 20.8%. For comparison, in 2016, the volume of shipments of Lenovo computers reached 55.95 million units, and the share was 20.7%.

Dell increased supplies by 1.1%, to 39.87 million units, which corresponded to a share of 15.2%. Further on the list follows: Apple shipments of its computers increased by 4.1%, to 19.3 million units, and the share increased from 6.9% to 7.4%. The worst dynamics in the top 5 was demonstrated, ASUS the supply of which in 2017 sank by more than 12%. As a result, only 6.8% of the market remained under the control of the Taiwanese vendor against 7.6% in 2016.^[23]

Best performance in 6 years - IDC

In 2017, the global personal computer market contracted, but showed the best results in the previous six years. This was reported in the analytical company International Data Corporation (IDC).

According to experts, in 2017, manufacturers released a total of 259.5 million desktops, laptops and workstations, which is 0.2% less than a year earlier. 2017 was the most stable year for the market since 2011, the study said.

According to analysts, the situation in the PC industry is improving due to the update of corporate computer equipment and an increase in consumer demand. In addition, the market is helped by falling sales of tablets, the manufacturers of which are again switching to the production of laptops, so in 2017 there was an increase in the number of ultra-thin, convertible and gaming systems.

IDC analyst Jay Chou says consumers are attracted to new computers that can work all day without recharging, are portable and allow them to solve demanding computing problems. Despite this, the overall situation in the PC market remains difficult, he noted.

At the end of 2017, HP Inc. returned to the first place in the supply of PCs on a global scale, gaining a share of 22.7%. Lenovo, which led in 2016, recorded a share of 21.1%.

HP Inc. turned out to be the manufacturer with the best dynamics (+ 8.2%) in the group of leaders. The worst situation was with ASUS, which reduced shipments of desktops and laptops by 10.6% in 2017 compared to 2016.

As a result, ASUS slipped from fifth to sixth place in the overall standings, missing the Acer ahead. The latter was helped by the emphasis on gaming systems and Chromebooks, the researchers note.^[24]

2016

3-Year Drop in All-in-One Sales

On June 7, 2017, the analytical company Digitimes Research presented some results of a study of the global all-in-one computer market. Sales of these devices have been falling for three years in a row.

In 2016, manufacturers released a total of 12.18 million all-in-one form factor desktops, down 1.7% from a year earlier due to a downturn in the consumer sector. 2014 and 2015 also saw a decline in all-in-one sales. According to experts, the market will recover in 2017-2018.

Global shipments of monoblocks in 2016 did not fall as much as the entire computer market, as a result of which the share of this segment in physical terms amounted to a record 10.4%. In the next two years, this share will increase, analysts are sure.

Lenovo remained the leader in the global all-in-one market. Moreover, in 2016, the Chinese company increased its gap from the closest pursuer - HP Inc. The four largest all-in-one manufacturers controlled 83.8% of the market in 2016. In 2017, the figure will reach 85.2% due to the fact that Lenovo will increase the supply of equipment, HP Inc. will expect strong sales in the corporate sector, and Apple has introduced new models, according to a study by Digitimes Research.

In 2016, iMac deliveries were measured at 2.26 million units versus 2.53 million units a year earlier. Experts expect that in 2017 shipments of these devices will rise to 2.36 million copies.

Among the contract manufacturers of monoblocks, analysts note Compal Electronics, which in 2016 showed the largest growth in deliveries due to orders obtained as a result of the departure of TPV-Inventa from the market. Compal is expected to record the largest growth dynamics in shipments in the all-in-one contract manufacturing sector and at the end of 2017, and will also become the second largest manufacturer of these computers in Taiwan after Quanta Computer.^[25]

Fall for fifth year in a row

On January 11, 2017, the analytical company Gartner published the results of a study of the global personal computer market. Its volume, according to experts, has been declining for five years in a row.

According to Gartner, in 2016, shipments of desktops and laptops on a global scale amounted to 269.7 million units, a decrease of 6.2% compared to 2015. The market has been falling steadily since 2012.

The stagnation of the computer market continued in the fourth quarter of 2016 due to the fact that holiday sales were generally weak due to fundamental changes in purchasing behavior towards PCs, says Mikako Kitagawa, senior analyst at Gartner. - The entire personal computer market is static because technology improvement has not been enough to drive growth. There are several innovative form factors, such as hybrid devices and ultra-thin and lightweight laptops, as well as technological advances like extended battery life. This part of the market is growing rapidly, attracting more users for whom PCs are a priority. However, the segment supported by computer enthusiasts is not large enough to help the growth of the entire market.

According to Kitagawa, one of the negative factors for the PC market is the popularity of smartphones, due to which the cycle of using computers is increasing.

The three largest manufacturers of desktops and laptops in 2016 did not change: Lenovo, HP Inc. and Dell recorded 54.7% of the market as an asset against 51.5% a year earlier. However, among these companies, only Dell was able to increase product deliveries - by 2.6%. Moreover, Dell remained the only growing vendor in the top 6 manufacturers (see table above).^[26]

2015

Record slump

In January 2016, IDC analysts reported the collapse of the global personal computer market. Its volume in 2015 for the first time in seven years was below 300 million units, and the decline was a record.

According to experts, in 2015, vendors shipped 276.2 million desktops and laptops worldwide, which is 10.4% less than a year earlier. There has never been such a strong fall in the market. Previously, the strongest regression (by 9.8%) occurred in 2013, and PC shipments last fell below 300 million devices only in 2008, the study notes.

Experts explain the fall of the computer industry as a number of reasons: increased PC usage, competition from smartphones and tablets, economic shocks (devaluation of world currencies and falling oil prices) and a strong 2014, when demand was stimulated by the cessation of support for Windows XP and the promotion of low-cost devices.

The PC market remains competitive, the economic situation has weakened amid the recent fall in the Chinese stock market, says IDC Vice President Loren Loverde. - However, computer updates should resume in 2016, especially towards the end of the year. Companies are expected to make an accelerated transition to Windows 10, and consumer activity should also grow in the second half of the year.

According to the analyst, many have postponed the purchase of a new PC, but this cannot continue for a long time, otherwise these people risk facing security problems and weak system performance. Most of these users are likely to update their computers as a result of new products and attractive prices, Loverde is sure.

There was only one change in the top five PC vendors in 2015: Apple came in fourth, ahead of Acer and ASUS. Apple Corporation remained the single largest manufacturer with growing shipments of computers. You can learn more about the balance of power among brands from the table below.

Top 5 largest PC manufacturers, 2015 (Computer shipments in thousands)
Vendor	Deliveries in 2015	Share in 2015	Deliveries in 2014	Share in 2014	Growth in 2015
1. Lenovo	57,182	20,7%	59,306	19,2%	-3,6%
2. HP	53,534	19,4%	56,869	18,4%	-5,9%
3. Dell	39,049	14,1%	41,509	13,5%	-5,9%
4. Apple	20,794	7,5%	19,575	6,3%	6,2%
5. Acer	19,680	7,1%	24,043	7,8%	-18,1%
Others	85,977	31,1%	107,063	34,7%	-19,7%
Result	276,216	100,0%	308,365	100,0%	-10,4%
Source: IDC

Fall for the fourth year in a row

On January 12, 2016, the analytical company Gartner published the results of a study of the global personal computer market. Its volume, according to experts, has been declining for four years.

Gartner estimates that in 2015, shipments of desktops and laptops on a global scale amounted to 288.7 million units, which is 8% less than a year earlier. The market began to fall in 2012 after the emergence of a large number of tablets.

In 2015, one of the main problems for the computer industry was the devaluation of world currencies. It is because of this factor that PC production in Japan and Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America decreased by almost 10% in 2015 compared to 2014. In the United States and Asia-Pacific, the regression was minimal, as currency fluctuations did not affect these markets.

In October-December 2015, the volume of the global computer industry decreased by 8.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, amounting to 75.7 million units. This quarterly decline turned out to be the fifth in a row and showed that even the New Year's season does not contribute to the overall increase in demand for PCs, which in turn indicates changes in consumer purchasing behavior regarding these devices, said Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa.

According to him, among corporate clients, Windows 10 received a lot of positive responses, but in the fourth quarter of 2015, companies only tested this OS and were in no hurry to switch to it.

The six largest PC vendors - Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, Apple and Acer - accounted for 73.1% of global shipments in 2015, compared to 70.4% a year earlier. Lenovo retained its market lead with a 19.8% share. The top three also included HP (18.2%) and Dell (13.6%). ASUS (7.3%), Apple (7.2%) and Acer (7%) follow. Among the listed manufacturers, only Apple managed to increase computer shipments in 2015, according to Gartner data.^[27]

2014

Third straight decline

On August 26, 2015, the research company International Data Corporation (IDC) posted a message on its website, from which it became aware of the situation in the global computer market.

In 2014, analysts calculated that manufacturers around the world shipped 308.3 million personal computers, which is 2.1% less than a year earlier. The annual market volume fell for the third time in a row, however, the pace of decline was almost five times less than in 2013.

The improvement in the computer industry was due to the cessation of official support for Windows XP and Windows 8.1 with Bing, in which vendors produced budget laptops in high demand in many regions, especially in emerging economies. However, even these devices did not save the laptop segment from falling.

According to IDC estimates, in 2014, laptop shipments amounted to 174.4 million units against 178.4 million devices a year earlier. In the desktop market, shipments decreased from 136.7 million units in 2013 to 133.9 million products a year later.

Analysts allow the computer industry to return to growth no earlier than 2017. If this forecast comes true, the decline in PC shipments globally will last five years.

Among the negative factors affecting the situation in the industry, experts attribute the high dollar exchange rate, due to which computer equipment is becoming more expensive, as well as the possibility of free updates of devices based on Windows 7 and Windows 8/8.1 to Windows 10.

At the same time, the negative impact of the popularity of smartphones on computer sales has weakened. IDC says that in 2015, the growth of the global smart phone market will slow down three times - to 10.4%, and in subsequent years, shipments of these devices will increase by only a few percent.

In their study, analysts did not give a balance of power among computer manufacturers for 2014.^[28]

Market drop of 2.2%

On March 12, 2015, analysts at International Data Corporation (IDC) published data characterizing the state of the global computer industry. Its volume, as experts calculated, in 2014 decreased both in piece and monetary terms despite a number of favorable factors.^[29]

According to IDC's 2014 estimate, sales of desktops and laptops globally reached $201 billion, down 0.8% from a year earlier. Manufacturers shipped 308.1 million devices - 2.2% less compared to 2013. In regions with a developed economy, supplies grew by 8.4% to 144.5 million units, while in developing countries a decline of 9.5% was recorded with a volume of shipments of 163.7 million PCs.

"The rise in developed regions helped the global market stabilize in 2014, but growth in the long term will depend on the recovery in demand in emerging markets, but this is unlikely to happen given the popularity of mobile devices there," said IDC Vice President Loren Loverde.

The IDC report said that the situation in the global computer industry improved in the second half of 2014, largely due to the fact that distributors and sellers were in a hurry to purchase as many low-cost devices as possible under the Windows 8.1 with Bing program before its end.

Microsoft failed to save the PC market

The Windows 8.1 with Bing initiative assumes low royalties for vendors compared to regular Windows 8.1 in exchange for installing Microsoft products by default. The amount of the discount to manufacturers working under this program is unknown, but Microsoft said that the retail price of a PC based on Windows 8.1 with Bing could be below $250.

According to analysts, the Windows 8.1 with Bing project will be completed in early 2015, after which the average prices for computers will creep up. In addition, the overall rise in price will be affected by the high dollar exchange rate and the growing demand for expensive hybrid devices with a thin body and a touchscreen display.

Vendors are likely to focus on such products, as well as monoblocks and other growing segments, in the face of price pressure and competition from mobile electronics manufacturers, Loverde believes. In his opinion, consolidation of players can be another method of combating difficulties in the PC market.

Gartner forecast

According to Gartner's forecast from July 2014^[30]end^[30] 2014, the global PC market should show a slight, but still revival after falling by 9.5% in 2013. At the same time, the global tablet market will slow down growth and reach 256 million units of equipment at the end of 2014.

The total supply of computer devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) is expected to reach 2.4 billion units of equipment in 2014, which is 4.2% more than in 2013. The growth of the PC segment separately (including desktops, laptops) will be 2.9% in 2014.

Another cycle of updating workstations used in business, including replacing computers with Windows XP, should support a positive trend in the market, especially in Western Europe. In 2014, about 60 million professional computers will be replaced in mature markets alone due to moral obsolescence.

PC deliveries by segment, thousand units

Тип устройств	2013	2014	2015
Традиционные ПК	296 131	276 221	261 657
Ультрамобильные, премиум	21 517	32 251	55 032
Всего рынок ПК	317 648	308 472	316 689
Планшеты	206 807	256 308	320 964
Мобильные устройства	1 806 964	1 862 766	1 946 456
Другие типы	2 981	5 381	7 645
Всего	2 334 400	2 432 927	2 591 753

Gartner, 2014

Like any device on the market, tablets go through the life cycle from the first interested buyers to mass demand, and then its extinction, so in mature markets they are already at the finish of this curve, analysts say. This segment will spur not so much the emergence of new functionality of devices as a significant reduction in prices for them.

Sales of mobile devices will reach 1.9 billion units in 2014, which is 3.1% more than in 2013. The smartphone segment will continue to feel great: even in 2018, it will account for 88% of mobile sales, compared to 66% in 2014.

In 2014, Android (plus 30%) and iOS (15%) will retain the title of the fastest growing operating systems (OS). Windows mobile devices will curate 10% of the market in 2018, compared to 4% in 2014.

2013

Year-end: -9.8%

In early March 2014, the research company IDC prepared final estimates of the volume of the global PC market ^[31] According to these data, according to the results of 2013, the global PC market decreased by 9.8%, and not by 10.1%, as previously expected. However, the difference between the fact and the forecast turned out to be weakly comforting.

Until now, the most healthy processes have taken place in emerging PC markets, but they have been weaker in unfavorable economic conditions than mature markets, where in previous years the growth rate of computer sales was much lower. In the medium term, emerging markets will win back, according to IDC, but so far, most likely, only "to zero." That is, they will come to the volumes that they reached before the start of the recession.

PC deliveries in regions by form factor, 2013-2018, million units

Регион	Form Factor	2013	2014 *	2018 *
Развивающиеся рынки	Desktops	85.6	80.5	77.2
Развивающиеся рынки	Laptops	96.2	87.2	94.5
Развивающиеся рынки	Total	181.9	167.7	171.7
Развитые рынки	Desktops	51.5	48.6	42.0
Развитые рынки	Laptops	82.2	79.6	77.9
Развитые рынки	Total	133.3	128.2	120.0
Мировой рынок	Desktops	136.7	129.1	119.2
Мировой рынок	Laptops	178.4	166.8	172.5
Мировой рынок	Total	315,1	295,9	291,7

* Forward-looking estimates

IDC, 2014

As can be seen from the above data, in 2013 the volume of PC deliveries (both desktop and portable) in emerging markets reached 181.9 million units, in developed markets - 133.3 million units, in total worldwide - 315.1 million. In 2014, according to forecasts, these figures will be even lower and will not recover even by 2018. So, in 2018, the global volume of PC supplies in all form factors will be 291.7 million units, in developed markets - 120 million units, in developing - 171.7 million units of equipment.

Thus, in 2013, the decline in the global market as a whole is 9.8%, emerging markets - 11.3%, developed - 7.6%. In 2014, markets will go into negative territory (in the same sequence) by 6.1%, 7.8%, 3.8%, and even in 2018, the negative dynamics of the global market will be 0.2%, developed - 2%, and only emerging markets will finally be able to add 1.1%.

Q1

According to the results of the first quarter of 2013, the world's largest analytical companies, IDC and Gartner, recorded a drop in the volume of the global PC market to 2009 values. So, according to Gartner^[32], global PC shipments in the first quarter^[32] 2013 amounted to 79.2 million units of equipment, which is 11.2% less than a year earlier. Sales below 80 million units reached the market for the first time in recent years - since the second quarter of 2009, it has not dropped to such low values.

The IDC's findings proved even darker. According to IDC^[33], the global volume of computer equipment supplies in the first quarter of 2013 amounted to 76.3 million units, which is 13.9% less than the same period in 2012 (the market was expected to fall by only 7.7%). The annual decline rate is the worst on record by the IDC since they began in 1994. In addition, this is the fourth quarter in a row when the market shows negative dynamics.

Global PC Market Dynamics

IDC, 2013

IDC notes that the decline in consumer demand has a depressive effect on such large vendors as HP and Dell, despite all their attempts to restructure the business. The only happy exception is Lenovo, which manages to implement an aggressive strategy in such difficult market conditions.

"Despite the fact that the market decline was expected, its magnitude was very unexpected and alarming," said IDC Research Director David Daoud. "The industry is at a crossroads, and it is now that strategic decisions must be made on exactly how to combat the spread of alternative devices and remain relevant to consumers," he added. He believes that PC vendors will have to revise not only the structure of the business, but also product portfolios, supply chains and much more.

According to Mikako Kitagawa, an analyst at Gartner, unlike the PC market for private users, things are much more positive in the professional computer hardware segment. This segment accounts for about 50% of the PC market, and it even records sales growth driven by the ongoing updating of obsolete equipment in enterprises.

2012

Q3

The global personal computer market in the third quarter of 2012 showed a decrease in the volume of equipment supplies by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2011, according to IDC ^[34]], while earlier analysts of this company predicted only 3.8% decline. At the same time, experts believe that such weak market results on the eve of Windows 8 entering the market in the fourth quarter of 2012 is quite a logical and expected phenomenon.

Among regional markets, a number of countries showed an even greater decrease in the supply of computer equipment than in the market as a whole. Thus, in the United States in the third quarter of 2012 in annual terms, deliveries decreased by 12.4% (a decrease of 9.5% was expected). In the EMEA region, according to IDC, relatively stable indicators were achieved, and in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region - positive growth.

According to IDC, HP remained the market leader in terms of supply volume in the third quarter of 2012 among vendors with a share of 15.9%. Lenovo, although it came close to the "blue giant" with 15.7% of the market, still remained in second place. Places from third to fifth were taken by Dell, Acer and Asus.

Top 5 global PC vendors, third quarter of 2012, thousand units

IDC, 2012

Interestingly, at the same time as IDC, another respected research company, Gartner, released its report on the state of the global PC market in the third quarter of 2012 . According to this company, the Chinese Lenovo for the first time in its history came out on top in the supply of PCs in the world. True, Gartner analysts indicate that these are only preliminary calculations. Gartner estimates Lenovo and HP's market shares at 15.7% and 15.5%, respectively. This is followed by Dell, Acer and Asus, like IDC.

Q2

Global PC shipments declined in the second quarter of 2012, according to Gartner^[35], by 0.1% compared to the same period last year to 87.46 million units of equipment. Both global economic instability and the fact that ultrabook sales did not meet expectations affected: they are still in the early stages of adaptation, although they appeared on the market back in 2011.

According to IDC^[36]in^[36], the global PC market in the second quarter of 2012 in quantitative terms also sank 0.1% in annual terms to 86.73 million units of equipment. Recall that at the end of the year, market growth, according to IDC forecasts, should be 2.1%. Analysts of this company also associate market stagnation with processes in the global economy, insignificant successes of ultrabooks and give a conservative forecast until the third quarter, adding that the release of Windows 8 will have any significant impact on the market no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2012.

According to Gartner, in the second quarter of 2012, among vendors in terms of supply volume, it HP accounted for 14.9% of the market, in second place - (Lenovo 14.7%). Compared to the second quarter of 2011 Acer Dell , they switched places: Acer is now in third place with 11%, and Dell is in fourth place with 10.7%. Closes the top five, Asus it accounted for 7%, another 41.7% of the market is occupied by other vendors.

Key vendors in the global software market by scope of supply (in units of equipment)

"Data includes desktops and mobile computers, including mini laptops, but not media tablets
Gartner, July 2012 "

Interestingly, according to IDC, the top five vendors for the second quarter of 2012 look slightly different: in descending order of market share are HP (15.5%), Lenovo (14.9%), Dell (11.1%), Acer (10.4%) and Asus (7.1%).

Key Vendors in the Global Software Market by Scope of Supply (Thousand Units of Equipment)

IDC, July 2012

In the United States, PC shipments in the second quarter of 2012, according to Gartner, reached 15.9 million units, which is 5.7% lower than the same period in 2011 (according to IDC estimates - lower by 10.6%). From a regional point of view, the largest increase was recorded in the EMEA region, Asia-Pacific region and Japan, while in America as a whole the situation remained quite depressed. In EMEA, PC shipments reached 25.1 million units in the second quarter of 2012, up 1.9% from a year earlier. In Western Europe and especially Southern Europe, the demand for PCs was quite low.

Q1

According to preliminary data from Gartner, in the first quarter of 2012, global PC shipments reached 89 million units, an increase of 1.9% compared to the same period last year. Gartner had previously forecast a 1.2% decline in sales. IDC (International Data Corporation) in its quarterly report Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker provides the following data: supply growth of 2.3% versus 0.9% projected in February.

According to Mikako Kitagawa, senior analyst at Gartner, the global dynamics of sales change represents the "average temperature by hospital." The EMEA region did show much better growth indicators than could be assumed, on the contrary, in the Asia-Pacific region sales sank very much - the impact of the slowdown in the growth rates of the markets of India and China affected. PC penetration in these regions is still low, and until recently, many vendors had high expectations in emerging markets. Now Gartner offers to be careful about such forecasts.

Although the first quarter is traditionally marked by low demand for PCs in the consumer segment, Gartner notes an abnormal decline in customer activity this year. The main reason is that competition for consumer budgets has skyrocketed, and Apple has so far prevailed in this battle.

According to Gartner analysts, due to the rather low demand for PCs caused by the flood in Thailand, the shortage of hard drives practically did not affect the market in the first quarter. Only individual markets and segments, in particular, budget consumer laptops, were affected. IDC points to the lack of hard drives in the channel and retail chains, which affects, first of all, enthusiasts, individual and small collectors. If not for the shortfall, the results could have been better, said Loren Loverde (Loren Loverde), vice president of IDC Worldwide Consumer Device Trackers.

The first quarter of 2012 can in some ways be considered transitional. The PC industry is now waiting for two important events - the release of Intel the Ivy Bridge platform and. OS Microsoft Windows 8 The emergence of these products should serve as a reason for updating the PC and, as a result, a good incentive for demand growth. Loverd points to the possibility of a market recovery in the fourth quarter if hard drive manufacturers are able to fully meet demand.

Q1 2012 Preliminary Global PC Shipments (Gartner, April 2012)

Company	Q1 2012 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2012 (%)	Q1 2011 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2011 (%)	Change in Delivery Volumes (%)
HP	15 305 413	17,2	14 785 739	16,9	3,5
Lenovo	11 629 510	13,1	9 075 667	10,4	28,1
Dell	9 826 121	11,0	9 984 358	11,4	-1,6
Acer Group	9 684 524	10,9	10 660 254	12,2	-9,2
ASUS	5 361 994	6,0	4 420 328	5,1	21,3
Другие	37 171 419	41,8	38 357 841	43,9	-3,1
Всего	88 978 981	100,0	87 284 188	100,0	1,9

Desktop and mobile PCs, including mini laptops and excluding media tablets

HP managed to strengthen the position of the leader in the market and increase its share to 17.2% in the first quarter of 2012. The company managed to create a sufficient supply of hard drives and overcome internal squabbles associated with the former chief executive's attempts to change the strategic course of development.

Lenovo posted the highest delivery growth rate of 28.1% in the first quarter of 2012. The company is equally successful in expanding into corporate and consumer markets.

Dell has underperformed in many regions compared to last year. For the first time in two years, the volume of shipments of PCs of this manufacturer decreased in the Asia-Pacific region. According to preliminary estimates by Gartner analysts, this was due to insufficient attention from Dell to entry-level consumer products. The company tried to focus more on the corporate segment.

Preliminary Global PC Shipments, Q1 2012 (IDC, April 2012)

Company	Q1 2012 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2012 (%)	Q1 2011 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2011 (%)	Change in Delivery Volumes (%)
HP	15 714	18,0	15 229	17,9	3,2
Lenovo	11 703	13,4	8 143	9,6	43,7
Dell	10 122	11,6	10 338	12,1	-2,1
Acer Group	8 622	9,9	8 953	10,5	-3,7
ASUS	5 260	6,0	4 310	5,1	22,0
Другие	35 691	41,0	38 164	44,8	-6,5
Всего	87 111	100,0	85 137	100,0	2,3

Global Market Share Dynamics of the Five Largest PC Assemblers (IDC, April 2012)

US market

PC shipments to the US market reached 15.5 million in the first quarter of 2012, down 3.5% year-on-year. However, Gartner analysts did expect a 6.1% market contraction. IDC gives more moderate estimates: supply growth of 1% versus forecast of 0.6%.

It is noteworthy that despite the advent of PCs in the all-in-one form factor and ultrabooks, the American market has shown very modest growth indicators. The IDC considers the reason for everything the conservative nature of Americans and the expectation of exit 8 Microsoft Windows. In the developed US market, the consumer direction, to a greater extent than in other regions, goes through the budgets of buyers, according to Gartner. The shortage of hard drives had a moderate impact on the segment of the lowest-budget solutions, which spared the channel representatives to pursue aggressive pricing policies. However, it is not known whether consumers will be interested in inexpensive PCs, because many other devices compete with them in the North American market.

Preliminary PC Shipments to the U.S. Market Q1 2012 (Gartner, April 2012)

Company	Q1 2012 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2012 (%)	Q1 2011 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2011 (%)	Change in Delivery Volumes (%)
HP	4 493 516	29,0	4 213 342	26,2	6,6
Dell	3 459 925	22,3	3 587 716	22,3	-3,6
Apple	1 640 814	10,6	1 580 200	9,8	3,8
Acer Group	1 418 043	9,1	1 913 473	11,9	-25,9
Toshiba	1 349 900	8,7	1 669 700	10,4	-19,2
Другие	3 158 050	20,3	3 126 149	19,4	1,0
Всего	15 520 247	100,0	16 090 581	100,0	-3,5

Desktop and mobile PCs, including mini laptops and excluding media tablets

HP demonstrated the fastest growth rate out of the top five vendors in the US market, with its PC shipments increasing by 6.6% and market share reaching 29%. The second and last company out of the five, which managed to increase the volume of deliveries, was Apple with an indicator of 3.8%.

Preliminary PC shipments to the US market, Q1 2012 (IDC, April 2012)

Company	Q1 2012 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2012 (%)	Q1 2011 Deliveries	Market share in Q1 2011 (%)	Change in Delivery Volumes (%)
HP	4 632	28,0	4 344	26,5	6,6
Dell	3 590	21,7	3 724	22,7	-3,6
Apple	1 661	10,0	1 580	9,6	5,1
Toshiba	1 349	8,1	1 668	10,2	-19,1
Acer Group	1 299	7,8	1 351	8,2	-3,8
Другие	4 038	24,4	3 743	22,8	7,9
Всего	16 570	100,0	16 410	100,0	1,0

Asia and Pacific Market

In the Asia-Pacific region, PC shipments reached 30.3 million units in the first quarter of 2012, a 2% year-over-year increase. As China's Rural Computer Program has completed its work, the demand for desktop PCs in China has declined dramatically. Launched in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, the municipal government program to present laptops to students free of charge, on the contrary, continued its work and supported demand. Presumably, there are still several blocks left before its completion.

The market in Latin America in the first quarter of 2012 decreased by 3.2% - the volume of deliveries amounted to 9 million PCs. Laptop sales rose 0.4% and desktop PCs fell 7.6%. Many local assemblers have suffered from shortages on hard drives.

PC shipments in Japan in the first quarter of 2012 increased by 11.5% to reach 4.4 million units. Gartner analysts attribute such a noticeable growth to the frankly weak indicators of last year, which were caused by the earthquakes and tsunamis that occurred in March.

Forecasts have come true and not

During 2012, the forecasts of leading experts regarding the results of the year in the global PC market constantly changed downward, which is becoming an unkind tradition. So, in August 2012, IDC assumed that the global PC market in 2012 will grow by only 0.9%, as supplies again slowed down the growth rate. Moreover, back in June 2012, IDC analysts were counting on 5% growth.

PC deliveries by region and form factor, 2011-2016, mln units

Growth in PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2011-2016

IDC, 2012

PC Growth in Emerging and Mature Markets

The slowdown in the PC market in the Asia-Pacific region affected the growth rate of emerging markets in general, while most developed PC markets like the United States again show a decrease in supply volumes. IDC predicts that from 2013 to 2016, the CAGR of the global PC market, however, will reach 7.1%, and from 2012 to 2016 - 8.4%.

As you can see from the diagrams above, the global PC market by 2016 may reach 483.1 million units of equipment, of which 162 million will be for stationary and 321.1 million for portable PCs. At the same time, the markets of developing countries will account for 303.5 million units, and the mature markets - 179.6 million.

Taxonomy: The PC market in IDC terminology includes personal computers (PCs) and portable devices such as mini-laptops and laptops. The market does not include media tablets and other pocket-type devices.

Gartner expected global PC shipments to reach 368 million units in 2012, up 4.4% from 2011. At the same time, analysts expect an even higher growth rate in supplies in 2013, when they can reach 400 million units.

In April, 2012 Gartner published the forecast for the world market of tablet computers. According to analysts, in 2012 the total number of the sold "tablets" will make 118.9 million pieces that is almost twice more, than in 2011 (60 million pieces).

Analysts at IHS iSuppli expected 376 million PC units to be shipped globally in 2012, up from 399 million in 2011.

The Impact of Virtualization, Cloud, and Mobilization on the PC Market

The era of PCs as the main tool for accessing information and applications in the corporate sector is coming to an end. According to analysts, by Gartner 2014, personal clouds will surpass computers in popularity in the usual sense of the word (thick customers).

Organizations will have to radically rethink traditional approaches to delivering applications and services to the workplace, and users will learn to benefit from the new much more flexible model of interaction with computing systems. The role of the latter is increasingly beginning to be taken over by smartphones, tablets, even consumer electronics devices, which are increasingly penetrating the corporate segment. In this context, cloud services can be seen as a kind of link between a variety of endpoints and the web.

Gartner analysts identify five megatrends on the market that serve as prerequisites for the transformation of the personal computing model.

Consumerization of IT

Today we can talk with confidence about the democratization of technologies, since the most modern of them are equally available to top managers and ordinary employees of organizations. The proliferation of the Internet and tools of social interaction in no small part served as an incentive to learn how to use IT technologies in everyday life, even for people with a humanitarian mindset.

Virtualization

Virtualization technologies have allowed you to abstract the application layer from a certain type of device, OS, even processor architecture.

Changing Approaches to Software Design, Delivery, and Use

Applications are becoming cross-platform everywhere and involve executing part of the code on the server or cloud side.

Cloud

The emergence of a cloud concept gives users an almost unlimited set of resources in terms of scalability.

Global mobilization

Combined with cloud services, mobile devices can handle a wide variety of tasks.

2011

Q4

In Q4 2011, IDC and Gartner reported that PC sales in the fourth quarter decreased compared to the previous year. Although vendors are expected to perform better in the software sector in 2011 than in the hardware product sector, the weak PC market affects not only microchip vendors like Intel, but also software vendors whose revenues depend to a certain extent on the sale of applications on new PCs.

According to Gartner, in the fourth quarter of 2011, global PC shipments amounted to 92.2 million units - 1.4% less than in the fourth quarter of 2010.

In turn, IDC announced a slowdown in sales of personal computers in the last three months of 2011. The reasons for the decline, according to the company's analysts: a weak economy, a shortage of hard drives as a result of flooding in Thailand and competition from tablets. According to IDC estimates, in the fourth quarter of 2011, global PC shipments amounted to 92.7 million units, which is 0.1% less than in the same period in 2010.

According to Mikako Kitagawa, chief analyst at Gartner, while economic instability in the Western European market has affected PC supplies for the consumer market, the expected recovery in the North American economy has not been able to stimulate consumer demand for PCs in this region. "The healthy enterprise segment of the PC market, as well as growth in emerging markets, could not compensate for the failure of sales in developed markets. Global sales growth still looks negative, "the expert noted.

Q3

In the third quarter, Lenovo, increasing its pressure on the PC market, was able to outstrip Dell in terms of shipments, and now, according to IHS iSuppli, is preparing an attack on HP's leadership. This is a bold step for the company, which in the first quarter of the year occupied the fourth position in the market.

Lenovo was able to achieve strong performance despite the fact that the PC market as a whole grew by only 5.5% in the 3rd quarter. At the same time, the company showed an increase in supply volume of 14.5% and a transition from the figure of 10.9 million units of equipment in the second quarter to 12.5 million units in the third. Lenovo currently accounts for 13.9% of global PC shipments (according to iSuppli), just 4.2 percentage points below market leader HP. According to iSuppli analysts, Lenovo's actions give it away as the PC manufacturer closest to being the leader.

According to Matthew Wilkins, chief analyst at iSuppli, Lenovo profitably took advantage of the high demand for PCs in China's domestic market. "While PC sales in the US, Europe and elsewhere in the world have been hit by weak economic conditions and increasing competition from tablets, PC and laptop sales remain very hot in China. This allows Lenovo to realize its superiority over American competitors and brings it to a position in which the company is already able to compete with HP for market leadership. "

The current iSuppli report echoes industry data from the analytical company Gartner, released in October. In them, Gartner notes that Lenovo grew so much in the third quarter that it could take Dell's place, mainly due to "aggressive marketing" in both market sectors: corporate and consumer.

In August, HP announced the possibility of taking the PC business into a separate enterprise. And while she revised her decision and announced her continued participation in this business, the likelihood of such a development of events excited the market.

Dell CEO Michael Dell later noted that the turmoil in the industry caused by HP's actions created opportunities for other PC vendors. "Any existing uncertainty or confusion is an opportunity," he told the Web 2.0 summit in October. - Without a doubt, we saw significant opportunities in what is happening [at HP]. Customers are thinking about what will happen in a year or two, and what is happening in the company does not inspire confidence in them. "

Recall that the first quarter of 2011, according to research by Gartner, Lenovo finished with figures of 8.137 million units. PC in supply and market share of 9.7%. And the third quarter was completed with 12.352 million units and 13% 5, respectively.

Q2

• According to the analytical company Canalys, in the second quarter of 2011, sales of personal computers (PCs) increased by 17% to 97.3 million devices compared to a year ago. The main reason for the growth is tablet sales, which Canalys also classifies as a PC. They have practically no Intel or AMD processors on the x86 platform, nor Windows, and their sales growth has reduced Wintel's share to a record low over the past 20 years - about 82% (14% for tablets and another 4% for Apple macintowns who also do not use the Wintel platform)^[37].

Apple, thanks to tablets, IPad for the first time became the world's second computer manufacturer after HP.

Since its inception in 1976, Apple has always sold computers with its own operating system and itself developed their architecture. Until 15 years ago, it seemed that Apple had lost hopelessly to the actual developer of the Wintel ecosystem - American IBM, which allowed other companies to stamp out "IBM-compatible computers." When co-founder Steve Jobs returned to the post of CEO of Apple in 1998, Microsoft founder Bill Gates said: "What I can't understand is why does he (Jobs) continue his attempts? He understands that he will not win. " At that time, Apple's capitalization was $3 billion, and on July 29, 2011 - $362 billion, more than Microsoft ($229 billion) and Intel ($118 billion) combined.

Apple rivals not only Wintel, but also Google's Android platform. This system, like Windows, can be used by any computer manufacturer. And in the second quarter of 2011, according to Strategy Analytics, Android devices already accounted for 1/3 of all tablets sold in the world.

The second quarter of 2011 was also successful for Acer, which released its first Android tablet in April 2011: according to Canalys, it was actively bought in Germany, Russia and the United States. In Russia, 90,000 Acer tablets were sold in the second quarter, says Gleb Mishin, head of its Russian office. But the Android platform is still "unfinished" and "one-face" tablets, so Apple has no serious competition, says Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group.

• China overtook the United States, in the second quarter of 2011 for the first time becoming the world's largest market for sales of personal computers, writes The Wall Street Journal with reference to IDC. In April-June 2011, shipments of computers in China reached 18.5 million units, while in the United States this figure was 17.8 million. Moreover, compared to the second quarter of 2010, sales in the United States decreased by 4.2%, and in China, on the contrary, increased by 14%^[38].

In monetary terms, the Chinese market also surpassed the United States - $11.9 billion against $11.7 billion - taking 22% of the global personal computer market.

Nevertheless, IDC predicts that the United States will remain in first place at the end of 2011, since sales in the United States usually intensify at the end of the year. According to analysts, in 2011 73.4 million personal computers will be sold in the United States - 1 million more than in China. But in 2012, China will finally overtake the United States in this indicator - 85.1 million against 76.6 million, they predict.

For Russia, the data are not given. For comparison, 2.31 million personal computers were shipped in Russia in the first quarter of 2011.

For the second year, China has been ahead of the United States in terms of car market volume - in 2010 their sales increased by 32% to 18.06 million units (including trucks). In the United States, 11.6 million cars were sold last year. According to OECD forecasts, China may surpass the United States in terms of industrial production in 5-7 years, and in terms of GDP - until 2030.

IDC and Gartner Predictions: Theory and Practice

The above results of IDC and Gartner on the state of affairs in the PC market in the first quarter of 2012, albeit not fundamentally, but still differ from each other and, at times, noticeably. We invite you to refer to the forecasts made earlier by these research companies and see how accurate they later turned out to be.

IDC predicted that 217.2 million laptops will be delivered to the market in 2010, up from 169 million in 2009. Portable systems were expected to account for 70% of the market in quantitative terms by 2012. At the end of 2010, the total volume of the PC market amounted to 346.8 million units. Assuming that the IDC forecast turned out to be exceptionally correct, the share of laptops in this volume reached almost 63% - a clearly overestimated figure for 2010. The increase in supplies was mainly due to an increase in interest in handheld devices in emerging economies.

Intel President and CEO Paul Otellini expected to see a 20% share of netbooks and other similar systems in 2010, and IDC 12% of the market in numerical terms. The higher forecast from Intel is not accidental - it is a monopolist in the market for processors for cheap systems. This, in particular, supported the company during the active phase of the recession. IDC's acute scores were closer to the truth, a truly successful grocery category netbooks never became.

As for tablets, according to IDC's forecast, in 2010 about 7 million such devices should be sold and about 46 million in 2014. As it soon turned out, in the fourth quarter of 2010 alone, 10.7 million tablets were sold (data from Strategy Analytics).

Gartner lowered its 2011 growth forecast for PC shipments to 15.9% from 18.1% previously estimated. According to the updated forecast, 409 million PCs should be delivered to the global market.

The projected volumes of supplies for 2009-2011 had to be reduced due to a number of factors, explained in Gartner.

First, analysts have recorded a change in consumer behavior - a shift in interest in innovative gadgets, which include new smartphone models and multimedia tablets. Analysts believe that buyers in developing regions who do not yet have a personal computer can refuse to buy it in favor of a tablet, the capabilities of which will only approach the capabilities of a PC over time, while the convenience of consuming content and communicating on social networks using a tablet stands one head higher now.

Secondly, the decline in the growth rate of supplies is due to savings. Realizing that the process of overcoming the crisis can take additional time (and no one knows what), consumers are inclined to postpone the purchase of a new system until better times. The same applies to the corporate segment. Already, there are examples of entire companies switching to IPad that believe that this computer will not become obsolete as quickly as the traditional system.

Analysts also pointed to the inability of the traditional personal computer market to offer something really new. It is difficult to come up with more convenient systems that would get deafening success, and all that remains is to reduce prices and lean on volumes, and this model has already exhausted itself. Tablets are one of the new areas that can help save manufacturers' income.

Gartner also mentioned another factor in the decline in market growth - virtual workspace technology. With the proliferation of thin clients, the need to upgrade hardware in the workplace is expected to take a back seat. This will have a negative impact on desktop sales in the corporate segment. However, this factor will begin to operate no earlier than 2012.

In general, the conclusions of Gartner turned out to be correct, but as a result, the market size in quantitative terms in 2011 did not exceed even 352.8 million PCs. The reasons for such a strong decline in supply volumes were the poor economic situation in Western Europe and the shortage of hard drives in the fourth quarter due to flooding in Thailand.

Gartner analysts are confident that desktop shipments will continue to grow in 2011-2012, growth will be minimal in 2013, and negative dynamics will appear in 2014. Sales of portable systems will show diametrical results - rapid growth rates annually until 2014, according to which the forecast is given. In 2014, according to IDC, 426.9 million laptops will be delivered to the global market. By this time, tablets will "eat up" 10% of the PC market in quantitative terms (IDC and Gartner do not classify tablets as personal computers).

2010:13% sales growth to 350 million PCs. HP Leader

On an annualized basis, PC shipments to the global market in 2010 rose 13.8% to 350.9 million units - according to Gartner - and 13.6% to 346.2 million - according to IDC. The best result was shown by Lenovo, whose shipments increased by 37.3%. In addition to Lenovo, in the top five manufacturers, the average market figure exceeded only one company - Toshiba. In 2010, the company launched a new strategy to promote the brand and celebrated the 25th anniversary of the release of the first laptop.

Worldwide PC deliveries in 2010 (pc, preliminary results)

Company	Deliveries in 2010	Market share in 2010 ,%	Deliveries in 2009	Market share in 2009 ,%	Year-on-year growth ,%
HP	62768547	17,9	58942530	19,1	6,5
Acer	45265678	12,9	39783933	12,9	13,8
Dell	42123680	12,0	37353774	12,1	12,8
Lenovo	33965812	9,7	24735404	8,0	37,3
Toshiba	19011752	5,4	15499805	5,0	22,7
Other	147768653	42,1	132026226	42,8	11,9
In total	350904121	100,0	308341673	100,0	13,8

Source: Gartner

IDC and its colleagues from Gartner agree - Lenovo and Toshiba are preferred, the growth of which at the end of the year, according to the estimates of this analytical company, amounted to 37.3% and 20.6%, respectively. But the weakest result was shown by the market leader - Hewlett-Packard (less than 7%).

Although Apple did not get into the Top 5 vendors on a global scale, it nevertheless showed significant growth in its native US market. According to Gartner, in the IV quarter of 2010, the company's deliveries to this region increased by 23.7% to 1.86 million systems, allowing it to take fifth place immediately after Toshiba with a 9.7% market share.

In Q1 2010, global PC shipments increased by 27.1% year-on-year. In the 1st quarter of 2010, 700 thousand tablet computers were delivered to the market from, Apple which occupied 6.5% of the ultraportable systems segment, including netbooks.

2009: 296.1 million sold PERSONAL COMPUTER

Sold 296.1 million personal computers.

1973: First Xerox Alto GUI PC

Notes