Economy of Serbia

Financial system

Inflation

2022

Inflation in November - 15%

Inflation in July - 12.8%

July

Inflation growth in February to 8.8%

Core inflation in Serbia rose to 8.8% in February 2022, the fastest in nearly nine years and well above the central bank's allowed range of 1.5% to 4.5%.

Consumer price growth is likely to accelerate further, according to the survey.

Key rate

Rate cut to 6.25%

In June 2024, Serbia lowered borrowing costs for the first time since 2020 after inflation returned to the Central Bank's target range, and the ECB began easing monetary policy. The central bank cut its key rate by 25 bp to 6.25%.

2022: First rate increase in nearly 10 years to 1.5%

In April 2022, Serbia raised its main interest rate for the first time in almost ten years.

The National Bank of Serbia raised the rate to 1.5% on April 7, exceeding the median forecast in a Bloomberg poll.

National debt

2023: State debt - 54% of GDP

2017: State debt - 63% of GDP

External debt

2019: Debt to Russia - $0.8 billion

with

GDP

2021: Agriculture's share of GDP - less than 8%

2018

GDP growth in Serbia

According to  forecasts of the World Bank, GDP growth in Serbia in 2018 was supposed to be 3%. Serbia's central bank expected the country's economy to grow by 4% against 2% in 2017. Net exports of all services in the first half of 2018 increased by 23.2%, largely due to information and communication technologies and business services.

Share of tourism in GDP

Salaries

2023: Minimum wage - $347

2018: Salaries of top officials in government management

2017: Average monthly salary

Unemployment

2020: Unemployment rate - 13.4%

Energy supplies

2022: Croatia and EU blocking oil supplies from Russia

In December 2022, a ban on the import of Russian oil into Serbia, agreed as part of the eighth package of EU sanctions, came into force. According to the Prime Minister of the country, the embargo will affect its economy, but the leadership has time to prepare for the introduction of restrictive measures. And thanks to the efforts of President Vucic, Serbia will remain in relative energy security.

Russian "black gold" came to the Balkan country on tankers along the Adriatic - to the Croatian port of Omishal, located on the island of Krk. Then, through the Adriatic Oil Pipeline (JANAF), oil reached the Serbian cities of Novi Sad and Pančevo. In January 2022, the Serbs signed a new agreement with the operator for another year. However, in the spring, the Croats said that oil supplies to Serbian refineries were being stopped indefinitely.

Brussels promised not to include Serbian enterprises in the sanctions list in exchange for a vote in the UN HRC against Russia. However, with the adoption of the eighth package of sanctions, supplies were banned de facto. The Croatian government played a significant role in this: according to Ana Brnabic, the decision to ban oil imports to Serbia has nothing to do with the imposition of sanctions against Russia, and is regarded by the Serbian leadership as a hostile gesture towards Serbia.

Before the embargo, Serbia managed to increase the volume of Russian oil supplies through the JANAF oil pipeline from 16% to 60%. At the same time, its share in total imports to Serbia was relatively small - only about 17%.

For several months, Belgrade has been looking for a way out of the current situation: they studied the routes of import of petroleum products through pipelines, railways, in tanks, as well as river transport. When it became clear that sanctions could not be avoided, despite the promises of European officials to make an exception for Serbia, the government began to look for a possible replacement.

We considered the increase in purchases from Iraq and Kazakhstan, as well as options for alternative supplies from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Latin America. And in general, they coped with the task, albeit at the expense of increased spending from the state budget.

However, the potential problem for the Serbian economy is different. Gazprom Neft's subsidiary, the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), operates in the country. He owns the Panchevo refinery, which processes all imported oil. And its operation, provided that Russian supplies are completely stopped, becomes simply inappropriate for owners. But the shutdown of the plant for the Serbs, as well as for the entire region, will mean a catastrophe.

As alternative supply routes, it is considered, Druzhba oil pipeline according to which Russian oil receives. Hungary Not so long ago, Aleksandar Vucic revealed plans to build a new pipeline connecting the Serbian GTS and. Hungary

Power

2022: Rise in electricity prices due to pressure on Russia

from

2020: Energy consumption per capita

and

Foreign trade

2024: Direct deliveries to Russia with indication in the documents of Kyrgyzstan

In April 2024, exports to Russia through third countries in Central Asia continue to remain at a record level. Kyrgyzstan is a key hub for transshipment, with exports from European countries never arriving in Bishkek. Kyrgyzstan is what is indicated in the bill, but these goods go directly to Russia.

2023: Chinese imports grow 6-fold since 2008

2022

Trade growth with Russia by 53% to a record $4.28 billion

In 2022, Russia and Serbia traded for a record in history $4.28 billion in monetary terms - $1.5 billion more than in 2021 - the Serbian statistical service. The volume of trade between the two countries increased by 53%.

Germany is the largest export destination

Consumption

2023: Pork is the most consumed type of meat

2019

Pork is the most consumed type of meat

Beer consumption in liters per year per person

2018: Milk consumption in litres per year per person

Largest companies in Serbia

2020

2018

Investments

2023: Russia's direct investment in Serbia exceeded $3 billion for the year

In mid-August 2024, it became known about a significant increase in Russia's direct investment in the Serbian economy. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, in 2023 this figure exceeded $3 billion.

The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov emphasized Russia's readiness to further support mutually beneficial cooperation initiatives with Serbia, including the creation of joint ventures in the republic. The Minister noted that there is a necessary regulatory framework for this.

Belgrade, Serbia

Alikhanov also said that joint Russian-Serbian projects in various industries are being implemented normally. We are talking about cooperation in the fields of railway, automobile and energy engineering, the chemical industry and digital technologies.

Russian Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko noted that in 2022 the trade turnover between the two countries increased by 53%, reaching $4.3 billion. The diplomat linked this increase not only with price increases, but also with the real expansion of trade relations. According to him, Serbia's decision not to join Western sanctions against Russia played a positive role.

Botsan-Kharchenko stressed that despite the initial difficulties with logistics and finances that arose in the spring and early summer of 2022, new supply chains were successfully established. The ambassador expressed confidence that 2024 could become even more productive for Russian-Serbian economic cooperation.

Special attention is paid to the development of energy cooperation and the implementation of infrastructure projects. In particular, in March 2022, a high-speed railway connection was opened between Belgrade and Novi Sad, where the most difficult construction sites were carried out with the participation of Russian Railways^[1]

Foreign companies

2022: The number of companies registered by Russians in Serbia has grown 15 times

On November 2, 2022, there were new statistics data on the number Russians that in the current geopolitical situation moved to. Serbia Migration led to a sharp increase in local housing prices, and the number of companies registered by citizens of the Russian Federation in this country on the Balkan Peninsula increased 15 times over the year.

According to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, since the beginning of 2022, about 100 thousand Russians have arrived in the country, of which approximately 17 thousand have received a residence permit. The rest subsequently moved to other states or remained as visitors. At the same time, three waves of migration are distinguished. During the first phase, mostly highly qualified specialists or wealthy people arrived in Serbia, taking business with them to avoid sanctions. In the summer of 2022, active family migration began. And the largest third phase of the move is associated with partial mobilization announced in Russia.

According to the Register of Serbian Enterprises, in 2022, Russians created 2,321 companies in Serbia - mainly in Belgrade. For comparison, for the entire 2021, citizens of the Russian Federation registered only 158 firms here. Many migrants also work remotely for foreign employers, using a visa-free regime (you can stay in the country for up to 30 days without a visa). Serbia attracts Russians for a number of reasons: this country can become the optimal choice in terms of language, taxation, health care and education.

However, a high level of migration led to a sharp increase in housing prices - primarily in the capital of Serbia. For example, the cost of renting an ordinary two-room apartment in the center of Belgrade has risen at least twice - €300 to €600 per month. At the same time, the average salary of local residents is about €800.^[2]

Tourism

Alcohol market

Minimum age to purchase alcoholic beverages

Automotive market

2022: Minimum age to drive - 17

2021: 21,000 vehicles produced

R&D

2020: R&D expenses - $758 million

Food industry

2021: Cheese production - 7.8 kg per capita

Notes