Quantum Computers (Global Market)

Quantum computer and quantum communication

Main article: Quantum computers and quantum communication

Quantum computers and networks in Russia

Main article: Quantum computers and networks in Russia

• Quantum technologies in Russian Railways
• Rosatom Quantum Technologies

2024

5 trends in quantum computing market - Boston Consulting Group

Quantum computing does not offer a tangible advantage over classical systems in either commercial or scientific applications. However, despite a number of existing difficulties, the quantum industry has enormous potential. With a 50 percent drop in total investment in technology, quantum computing raised $1.2 billion from venture capital investors in 2023, underscoring continued confidence in the future of such projects. In a review by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which TAdviser reviewed at the end of October 2024, analysts highlight five key trends in the global quantum computing industry.

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1. Increase in qubits (quantum bits)

Classical computing continues to raise the bar with significant advances in hardware (such as GPUs), algorithms, libraries, and AI frameworks. At the same time, quantum technology shows undeniable momentum. The number of physical qubits in the quantum circuit - a key indicator of computing power - has doubled every one to two years since 2018, reflecting significant technological progress. This trend is expected to continue in the future.

2. Improving accuracy

The authors of the report point out that technical obstacles in the development of quantum equipment have proved difficult to overcome. Qubits are growing rapidly, but accuracy remains a challenge. Metriq estimates that with existing software, the most valuable uses require 10,000-20,000 qubit-gate operations and near 100% accuracy. But schemes of more than 30 qubits achieved 99.5% accuracy at best. Since errors accumulate exponentially, even better equipment is not effective enough. The development of new algorithms is also lagging behind. In fact, the most significant achievements in this area were formalized between the 1980s and 2010s. However, in the long term, quantum computing will bring certain advantages in solving very complex problems.

3. Quantum error correction (QEC)

This is a very important direction for the development of quantum computing. The fact is that errors arising in quantum systems can lead to distortion or loss of information, which can significantly reduce or negate the value of the results obtained. To combat errors, various quantum correction methods are used that increase the reliability of systems.

4. Investments from the corporate sector

While quantum computing has huge potential in some sectors, this 2024 technology, the report's authors say, remains in its infancy and provides limited immediate value for most businesses. Investments in this area are most justified for companies that can benefit significantly after improving the means of correcting errors or who seek to gain the advantage of a pioneer in this area.

5. Shift of focus in the quantum sphere

The main focus of the developers is to increase the number of qubits in quantum processors. However, BCG experts expect that in the future the focus will expand and cover additional areas. Among them are named noise reduction in order to improve accuracy, ensure the ability to load data into a quantum computer, maximize the efficiency of quantum systems and strive for a return on investment.^[1]

Britain bans export of quantum computers

In June 2024, Britain imposed restrictions on the export of quantum computers. The new rules prohibit the export of quantum computers with qubits over 34 and a low error rate. The authorities refused to explain the reasons for the introduction of these restrictions, citing national security. Read more here.

2023: Global Quantum Computing Market Reaches $1.1 Billion in a Year

At the end of 2023, the global quantum computing market reached $1.1 billion. This industry is showing steady growth, as stated in a study by Omdia, the results of which TAdviser got acquainted with at the end of October 2024.

Experts cite several key factors contributing to the rapid expansion of the market. One is the increasing need for high-performance computing. Quantum computers are able to cope with some tasks that traditional machines cannot or will take too long for ordinary systems to solve. While the technology is still evolving, there has been a significant expansion in the range of quantum computing applications. In addition, quantum cryptography and quantum communication are gaining momentum, which provide a high level of security.

The industry is also being stimulated through government initiatives. The authorities of many countries support research in the field of quantum technologies in order to develop next-generation computing systems. Increasing government funding and forming strategic alliances has a positive impact on the market. There has been an increase in the number of companies offering hardware solutions for quantum systems. These companies are focused on developing the scalable and reliable quantum chips needed to implement practical applications. At the same time, large corporations such as IBM and Google are actively investing in research and development in the field of quantum computing: they collaborate with universities, research institutes and startups to expand the capabilities of quantum platforms. The key players in the industry are:

• IBM;
• D-Wave Systems;
• Cambridge Quantum Computing;
• Intel;
• Rigetti & Co;
• Google;
• Quantica Computacao;
• Zapata Computing;
• Xanadu;
• Accenture.

Building fault-tolerant, scalable quantum computers will help humanity address key challenges related to climate change, the development of new pharmaceuticals and materials, and bring important changes to the field of artificial intelligence. But the industry has a long way to go to fully achieve this goal, says Sam Lucero, chief quantum computing analyst at Omdia.

Going forward, the Compound Percentage CAGR in the market in question will be 37.7%, according to Omdia. Thus, by 2033, costs on a global scale can reach $28.2 billion. North America and Europe will provide the largest amount of revenue; behind them will be Asia and Oceania. The largest segment is cloud services - followed by hardware, consulting and software.

Precedence Research analysts also point to the steady growth of the global quantum computing market. According to their estimates, the costs in 2023 were at the level of $839.07 million. At the same time, North America accounted for the lion's share of revenue - approximately $511.83 million. Precedence Research believes that in the future the CAGR will be 30.9%, and global spending will rise to $16.22 billion by 2034.

North America held the largest share of the quantum computing market in 2023 at 61%. The US government actively supports this area through funding and strategic initiatives. The region boasts numerous leading universities and research centers that are actively involved in work on quantum platforms, says Precedence Research.[2]

2022

In terms of state investments in quantum technologies, China is ahead of the EU and the United States combined

Globally, investments in quantum technologies continue to grow. At the same time, China is ahead of the European Union and the United States combined in terms of state investments in this sector. Such data from the consulting company McKinsey were released in June 2024.

As of 2022, the declared state investment in quantum technologies China in reached $15.3 billion. In second place in this indicator is the European Union with $8.4 billion, and the US closes the top three with $3.7 billion. Next come, and with Japan Britain Canada India $1.8 billion, $1.3 billion, $1.1 billion and $1 billion, respectively. Russia in the ranking is in eighth place with investments in the amount of $0.7 billion. Close the top Israel ten with $0.5 billion Singapore and $0.3 billion.

The study notes that in 2022, total startup investments in quantum technologies amounted to $2.35 billion. There are approximately 350 young companies in the ecosystem of quantum solutions. The average growth of global investment in the quantum computing market in 2023-2027 is expected at 11.5%.

The report said that as of 2023, the United States and China are leading in the development of quantum technologies. The most productive quantum systems in the world are the Quantum Osprey superconductor processors (USA), Sycamore (USA) and Zuchongzhi (China). Among the key areas of development of the industry are named quantum computers, quantum and post-quantum cryptography, as well as quantum sensors (measuring instruments using ultra-sensitive quantum effects). In the field of artificial intelligence, the prospects of quantum computing are related to solving problems of the exponential complexity subclass, where a large amount of data is not required, but a huge amount of computing is needed.^[3]

Quantum computing developers in the world raised $2 billion in investments over the year

In 2022, the volume of investments in the global quantum computing market reached $2 billion, although the corresponding technologies are at the initial stage of development. This is stated in a study by McKinsey, the results of which were presented on July 20, 2023.

Analysts note that quantum computers in the future will provide a tremendous increase in performance compared to classical systems in solving certain problems. This will lead to significant progress in various industries, including aerospace, defense, automotive, chemical, financial and pharmaceutical sectors. In addition, quantum technologies will allow the formation of ultra-secure communication channels, and quantum sensors will make it possible to measure various physical quantities with an accuracy that is several orders of magnitude higher than that of classical sensors.

Investment in the global quantum computing market reached $2 billion

However, as of 2023, the development of quantum technologies is fraught with a number of difficulties. The key problem is technical limitations that do not allow creating systems with a large number of qubits (quantum bits) to obtain significant computing resources. In addition, in terms of economic efficiency, quantum machines are inferior to traditional supercomputers. On a commercial basis, by October 2023, only a few quantum computers are available.

Nevertheless, the demand for specialists in the field of quantum computing is growing: from 2018 to 2022, the number of corresponding vacancies increased approximately 4 times. And in 2022, the number of ads on the search for workers in this area increased by 12% compared to the previous year. Moreover, in connection with the emergence of the industry, specialists are often involved from other fields, including mathematics, electrical engineering, chemistry^[4]

Which countries invest the most in quantum computing

Quantum computers have huge potential in solving complex resource-intensive problems, but progress in the relevant area will be relatively slow. So, by 2030, only about 5,000 quantum computers will operate on a global scale. At the same time, by the 2040th, the volume of the global ecosystem of quantum computing can reach $106 billion. Such figures are given in research by McKinsey, the results of which were released in April-May 2023.

It is noted that one of the main obstacles to the development of quantum computing is that qubits (quantum bits operated by such systems) are unstable. McKinsey analysts note that key players in the quantum computing market, as well as a small group of startups, will gradually increase the number of qubits operated by their systems. At the same time, investments in the development of quantum technologies will continue to grow.

McKinsey estimates that the leader in terms of financial support for the quantum computing industry are. In USA 2021-2022. in this country, approximately $3.3 billion was invested in startups in the field of quantum computing. In second place in the ranking is Canada with a result of $1.17 billion, and closes the top three Britain with $1.13 billion. European Union Investments during the specified period amounted to $499 million, in - China $304 million. All other regions combined spent about $523 million on supporting quantum technology companies.

If we consider investments at the state level, then the undisputed leader is China, which by 2022 invested approximately $15.3 billion in the development of quantum computers and related technologies. In second place is the European Union with $8.4 billion, in third place is the United States with $3.7 billion. The top ten also included Japan ($1.8 billion), Britain ($1.3 billion), Canada ($1.1 billion), India ($1 billion), Russia ($0.7 billion), Israel ($0.5 billion) and Singapore ($0.3 billion).

China leads the way in the number of patents in quantum technology, the report said. In 2020-2022, the PRC accounted for 52.3% of the total number of patents registered in the relevant region. In second place with a large margin is Japan - 13.8%; the European Union demonstrated the same indicator. The result of Russia during the period under review was only 0.6%.

In terms of the number of publications on quantum technologies, the first place also went to China with 29.5% in 2022. Next come the European Union with 21.7% and the United States with 21.3%. Russia is in 10th place with a share of approximately 1.4%. But, despite the fact that the PRC and the EU are leading in the number of articles, American scientific works are recognized as the most significant.

In terms of the number of specialists in the field of quantum computing, at the end of 2020, the European Union was in the lead - 135.5 thousand. Then come India (82.1 thousand), China (57.7 thousand), the USA (45.1 thousand), Russia (23.5 thousand) and Britain (14.6 thousand). Most universities conducting research in the field of quantum technology are located in the United States - 67. Then come the European Union (39 organizations) and Britain (14).

Analysts at McKinsey name four key industries that will benefit most from quantum computing in the short term. These are pharmaceuticals, chemicals, automotive and finance. In addition to quantum computing itself, McKinsey analysts distinguish two other areas of application of quantum technologies - quantum communication and quantum sensing. In the first case, it will be possible to ensure the highest level of security, and in the second - maximum measurement accuracy, including physical properties.

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Quantum technology developers in the world raised $2.35 billion in investments

Developers of quantum technologies in the world in 2022 attracted $2.35 billion in investments. This is stated in the report, which Sberbank prepared together with FSUE "VNIIA named after N.L. Dukhova" and the Institute of Artificial Intelligence AIRI. TASS cites excerpts from this document on September 21, 2023.

The study also said that in 2022, almost 1,600 patents were issued and published globally in all areas of quantum computing: from physical implementations of quantum equipment and error correction to AI and machine learning.

Developers of quantum technologies in the world in 2022 attracted $2.35 billion in investments

According to analysts, the leading countries, understanding the breakthrough potential of this direction, include quantum technologies in national programs and allocate ever larger budgets for research. The leader is China with a volume of state financing of $15.3 billion. Development programs have the world's leading technology corporations. So, IBM which made a quantum one for processor 433 qubits, plans to increase the number of qubits to 1121 this 2023 Google , and intends to show a device for a thousand qubits after 2025. The corporation announced its intention to develop a full stack of technologies for quantum computing Intel and has already launched quantum chips on spin qubits.

The authors of the report come to the conclusions that although by September 2023 no one in the world has yet been able to demonstrate practical quantum superiority, nevertheless, companies should plan today what will happen after it is achieved. Quantum computing is able to integrate organically into data processing workflows using adaptation tools for popular programming languages ​ ​ and interfaces.^[5]

Global Quantum Computing Market Valued at $1.1 Billion

At the end of 2022, the volume of the global quantum computing market reached approximately $1.1 billion. Such data are contained in the IDC study, the results of which were released on August 17, 2023.

Analysts say the industry is not developing as fast as previously thought. This is due to many factors. One of them is the difficulties with the development of quantum equipment: delays in the implementation of many projects lead to the fact that the investments made do not generate income. In addition, the market is impacted by the emergence of other promising technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, which are expected to provide significant value to end users. The development of the quantum computing segment is also hindered by the current macroeconomic situation: these are increased interest rates, high inflation rates and the prospect of economic recession.

The global quantum computing market has reached approximately $1.1 billion

IDC considers 2022 to be rich in events in the quantum computing industry. Within the framework of the European High Performance Computing Joint Understanding (EuroHPC JU) project, implemented by the EU authorities, participating countries and private companies, six sites for hosting quantum computers were selected at once. Such systems are planned to be installed in the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Poland. They will be used primarily for development and scientific research, which in the future will help in the creation of more powerful and efficient quantum computers. In addition, in 2022, Nvidia introduced the QODA hybrid development platform, which combines the concepts of traditional and quantum computing. A number of quantum equipment suppliers have announced a partnership to accelerate the implementation of projects in the relevant area.

There has been a lot of hype around quantum computing and when such systems will be able to provide an advantage and for what uses. Today's quantum computing platforms can only be suitable for small experiments, but breakthrough achievements are expected in this area over time, "said Heather West, Ph.D. and IDC research manager.

Billions of dollars devoted to research and development have led to substantial advances in quantum computing hardware and software. In addition, new methods for reducing and suppressing errors have been proposed. Therefore, analysts believe that industry participants should not refrain from further investments in this area.

The industry is not developing as fast as previously thought

According to IDC forecasts, global spending in the quantum computing market from 2022 to 2027 will increase with a CAGR (compound percentage CAGR) of 48.1%. If these assumptions turn out to be correct, the volume of the industry in 2027 will reach $7.6 billion. The prediction includes "basic quantum computing as a service" as well as "concomitant quantum computing as a service."

Analysts believe that investment in the quantum computing segment will increase by an average of 11.5% during 2023-2027 and reach almost $16.4 billion by the end of the corresponding period. This takes into account revenues from public and private institutions, costs of technology and service providers, as well as external financing from venture funds and private investment companies. The IDC specifically highlights the growing interest in quantum computing from global government institutions. Such projects are designed for several years, and their budget is estimated at billions of dollars.^[6]

McKinsey predicts quantum computing market growth to $80 billion

In mid-June 2022, McKinsey published a study stating that in the world of quantum computing, the still nascent field has the potential to create new revenues of $80 billion for enterprises in various industries.

According to experts, by June 2022, equipment for quantum systems remains too immature to provide a significant number of use cases, which, in turn, limits the possibilities for novice software developers in this area.

McKinsey predicts quantum computing market growth to $80 billion

Quantum computing - this branch of computer science, is based on the principles of superposition of matter and quantum entanglement and uses a method of calculation that is different from the traditional one. In theory, it would be able to store many more states per unit of information and work with much more efficient algorithms on a numerical level, such as the Shore algorithm or quantum annealing.

Until 2025, software with a share of about 35% will remain the largest segment of the quantum computing market, according to McKinsey experts. Another 23% will come from hardware solutions. Cloud services in the field of quantum computing will bring 16% of total revenue, professional services 14%. This includes companies operating in all aspects of quantum computing, from component manufacturers to service providers. The key areas of application of quantum technologies are called the financial sector, cybersecurity and the scientific field. Among the areas of application of such calculations are machine learning 24%, optimization 19%, modeling 19%, safety 14% and Monte Carlo 9%.

As a result, in 2022 the market volume will be about $325.4 million, and in 2023 $728 million. In 2024, the figure will reach $888 million, and by 2028 an adjusted size of $1987.6 million is predicted, with a CAGR of 35.2% during the reporting period. McKinsey, like all companies that try to determine whether quantum computing has any real value, is trying to walk a fine line, exploring the possibilities of quantum computing while showing how the technology is still out of touch with the reality of conventional enterprises. The report is in line with the expectations of various industry players, including Intel, D-Wave Solutions, IBM and Google.^[7]

British Defense Ministry began to cooperate with Orca Computing

In early June 2022, the British Ministry of Defense acquired the country's first quantum computer. The government agency will work with London-based Orca Computing to explore the possibilities of using quantum technologies in the defense sphere. Read more here.

2021:76% of global data centers will use quantum computing by 2023

Atos and IQM on December 10, 2021 presented the results of their first global study on the prospects for the development of quantum high-performance computing. According to its results, quantum computing is among the top 3 technologies in the 500 largest data centers in the world. Thus, 76% of HPC data centers around the world already use quantum computing or plan to move to it by 2023. Read more here.

2020

Quantum computing costs amounted to $412 million

The cost of quantum computing provided to companies, government agencies, educational and research organizations as a service reached $412 million in 2020. This is evidenced by data from IDC analysts, released at the end of November 2021.

Experts did not specify the dynamics of the market in comparison with 2019, but noted that there is an increase due to several factors:

• great advances in quantum computing;
• development of services for provision of such capacity as infrastructure (IaaS) and platform (PaaS);
• the growth of resource-intensive computing processes that need high-performance power like what quantum computers offer.

Global quantum computer market valued at $412 million at the end of 2020

The study notes that like any revolutionary technology of the last few decades, billions of dollars will be spent on the quantum computing market to make this technology familiar and ready for mass adoption.

IDC believes that this investment will help replace the limited capabilities of quantum computers with a new generation of solutions that will contribute to the emergence of new options for using such calculations and accelerate the development of the market.

According to analysts, in the period from 2021 to 2027. global costs of using quantum computing will increase by 50.9% per year and amount to $8.6 billion by the end of this period of time. At the same time, investments by government agencies, private companies and research organizations in quantum projects will grow by 11.3% per year and reach $16.4 billion by the end of 2027. The same amount includes R&D expenses of manufacturers and service providers and funds of venture investors.

2020 and 2021 have become a turning point for the quantum computing industry, analysts write. The strategic approaches used to realize the benefits of the technology have become more defined, and this has been facilitated by manufacturers' roadmaps. Vendors are engaged in methods of scaling qubits and correcting errors, looking for new financing opportunities, entering the public market or developing partnerships with the public sector, educational institutions or commercial companies, and are also teaming up in the hope of offering customers full-scale quantum solutions. In most cases, these steps are aimed at developing a quantum ecosystem, experts say.

In 2020, the efforts of scientists were focused on two directions: the creation of universal quantum computers for a wide range of tasks and specialized quantum computers

IDC analyst Heather West believes that companies need to experiment with quantum computing now [the study was released in November 2021], as the time comes and the technology becomes popular, and those developments that seem impossible in the near future will eventually be used to solve the most difficult problems.

One of the difficulties hindering the development of the quantum systems market is the development of quantum algorithms for solving practical problems. By 2020, several dozen such algorithms were known, but for their real implementation it is necessary to solve various scientific and technological problems related to the optimization of the practical implementation of algorithms in the conditions of a specific element base.

Quantum computers promise fantastic empowerment in a wide variety of fields: global optimization, the creation of new materials, the search for promising drugs, improved machine learning and hacking of computer ciphers.

One of the most promising areas that quantum computing can affect is the development of artificial intelligence (AI) systems. AI deals with huge amounts of data, and inaccuracies in the training of neural networks lead to significant errors. Quantum computers can improve learning and interpretation algorithms. According to experts, a large role is played by the ability of quantum computers to go beyond the usual binary coding. This affects both the amount of information analyzed and the processing of natural language.

Among the countries that most actively invest in the development of quantum computers - China, USA, EU countries

Countries invest huge sums in the development of the quantum industry. China has created a new center for quantum research (National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences) worth $10 billion; The European Union has developed a master plan for the development of quantum technologies and plans to spend about a billion euros on this; The United States, in accordance with the law on the national quantum initiative, allocated $1.2 billion for the development of projects in this area over a five-year period. However, to achieve useful computational performance, machines consisting of hundreds of thousands of qubits are likely to be needed.

In 2020, the efforts of scientists were focused on two directions: the creation of universal quantum computers for a wide range of tasks and specialized quantum computers. As a rule, commercially available systems have a small number of qubits, but they use the principles of quantum mechanics to speed up calculations. One of the main players in this market is D-Wave Systems, whose devices already include five thousand qubits. In 2020, D-Wave began offering cloud-based commercial access to five thousand qubit Advantage specialized quantum computers, which are so far suitable for complex optimization tasks.^[8]

Quantum computer market valued at $5.6 billion

The volume of the quantum computing market at the end of 2020 reached $5.6 billion. This was reported in July 2021 by the research company Persistence Market Research without specifying the dynamics in comparison with 2019. Analysts only said that spending on such technologies is increasing and will continue to grow in the future. The market in question is expected to show annual growth of 33.7%, and in China, Japan and India, positive dynamics will be even higher (+ 36.9%, + 41.8% and + 50.2%, respectively).

More big tech companies are developing quantum computers focused on providing free access to their quantum systems through cloud platforms, with the aim of raising awareness and building a community of developers, the report noted. Thanks to this, quantum computing capabilities can be used by universities, research groups and organizations testing practical scenarios for using such technologies.

Quantum computer market reaches $5.6 billion

The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has led to a surge in demand for quantum computing, including software, machine learning tools, cloud solutions, artificial intelligence and quantum computers offered as a service.

According to estimates by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in 2020, $675 million was invested in quantum startups against $211 million in 2019 and $138 million in 2018.

According to the head of the BCG division and another author of the report, Matt Langione, the key change for 2018-2020 is the growth of interest and investment from corporations.

This was the last element in the domino effect, after governments and direct investors began active investments. The creation of quantum computers will require not only innovations in the field of equipment and software, but also new use cases: enterprises will need to determine the composition and scope of especially important problems that quantum computers must solve, Langione notes.

Among the leaders in the production of quantum equipment: IBM, Google, Honeywell

Quantum computing contributes to four types of main problems: simulation modeling, optimization, machine learning and cryptography, follows from the BCG report. On the scale of mature technology, the effect in pharmaceuticals will be up to $80 billion per year, in encryption for the needs of government agencies - also up to $80 billion, in the optimization of logistics networks - up to $100 billion, in the optimization of search and advertising - up to $100 billion, in the development of chemical catalysts - up to $50 billion, in the optimization of financial portfolios - up to $50 billion, in the prevention of money laundering and fraud - up to $30 billion.

According to Jean-François Bobier, director and partner of BCG, the development of quantum computing will continue. The achievements and strategic plans of major hardware manufacturers such as IBM, Google, Honeywell, IonQ, PsiQuantum and others have increased confidence that equipment will be powerful enough to solve key business and society problems by 2030. The companies and governments involved in this should prepare for an accelerated schedule, the specialist said.

Among the manufacturers of quantum equipment at BCG, the achievements of companies such as IBM, Google, Honeywell, IonQ and PsiQuantum are especially distinguished. Less famous players are also participating in the race: this is the startup PsiQuantum, which, using its own technologies, promises to create a more powerful quantum supercomputer than Google, as well as the IonQ startup that has gone public, which claims to create a mass quantum computer.^[9]

Notes