Stock market of Russia

Main article: Russian economy

Moscow Exchange

Main article: Moscow Exchange

Commodity and Commodity Exchanges

Main article: Commodity and commodity market exchanges in Russia

Investment in foreign shares in Russia

Main article: Investment in foreign shares in Russia

Insider Information and Market Manipulation

Main article: Inside information and market manipulation

Investment fraud

Main article: Investment fraud

IPO of Russian IT companies

Main article: IPO of Russian IT companies

Mutual funds in Russia

Main article: mutual funds in Russia

2024: Capitalization of all public companies in Russia is the same as Spain - $0.65 trillion

As of February 2024, the capitalization of all public companies

• Britain - $3.3 trillion,
• France - $3.2 trillion,
• Germany - $2.3 trillion,
• Italy - $0.8 trillion,
• Russia - $0.65 trillion,
• Spain - $0.65 trillion.

2023

Net profit of brokerage companies for the year reached 33.7 billion rubles after losses a year earlier

At the end of 2023, the net profit of brokerage companies in Russia amounted to approximately 33.7 billion rubles. For comparison, a year earlier, such organizations demonstrated a total loss of 34.9 billion rubles. This is stated in the study, the results of which were published on April 25, 2024.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, the report takes into account the indicators of more than 100 companies with a brokerage license as of April 2024. Their total revenue from specialized activities in 2023 exceeded 74 billion rubles - growth compared to the previous year was recorded at 44%.

Net profit of brokerage companies in Russia amounted to approximately 33.7 billion rubles

The commissions of market participants on an annualized basis rose by almost 52% - to 56.4 billion rubles in 2023. The largest share in this volume was revenues from services on the stock market - almost 36 billion rubles, or 63.8%. At the same time, the largest year-on-year growth was demonstrated by income from securities offering services. Almost two dozen companies received revenue of about 4.9 billion rubles, while a year earlier it slightly exceeded 2.1 billion rubles. According to Region BC estimates, in 2023 corporate issuers placed 1.37 thousand bond issues worth 5.8 trillion rubles.

The report said that a significant increase in the performance of brokerage companies is associated with a rapid recovery of the market after the recession in 2022 against the background of the emerging geopolitical situation. Dmitry Lesnov, head of the client service development department at FG Finam Lesnov, notes that at the same time as the activity of clients of brokerage companies increased, the expenses of professional participants were optimized. Additional revenue comes from automated trading tools. The growth of the number of active and funded investors is facilitated by new placements on the market, the IPO popularity of simple and effective instruments, as well as the emergence. CFA^[1]

Growth of investments of Russians in securities by a third to 11 billion rubles

Investments of Russians in securities in 2023 increased by 33.6% compared to 2022 and reached 11 trillion rubles. Such figures are given in the annual report of the Bank of Russia (published in March 2024).

From the materials of the regulator it follows that citizens increase investments in Russian securities and reduce investments in foreign ones. Investments of Russians in resident shares in 2023 increased by 359 billion rubles, in residents' bonds - by 347 billion rubles. Net sales of shares and bonds of non-residents in the exchange and over-the-counter markets amounted to 34 billion and 92 billion rubles, respectively.

Investments of Russians in securities in 2023 increased by 33.6%

The share of citizens' funds sent to foreign financial instruments and institutions in 2023 decreased fourfold - to 8.3% from 35.2%, or from 3 trillion to 980 billion rubles. The share of investments of individuals in foreign financial instruments and foreign financial institutions with the exception of currency revaluation also decreased - by 2.2 percentage points (pp), to 18.1%. The fall in this indicator occurred against the background of an increase in the attractiveness of ruble savings and sanctions risks. The currency exchange rate of savings of individuals with a correction for foreign currency revaluation in 2023 decreased by 4.4 pp, to 23.8%, the Central Bank said in a report.

In 2023, individuals transferred 142.5 billion rubles to non-resident brokers, which is 22.2% less than a year ago. Average daily transfers to non-resident brokers in 2023 were measured at 11.9 billion rubles against 15.3 billion rubles.

The Central Bank notes that in 2020-2021. in Russia there was an active accumulation of investments in foreign shares, and since 2022 there has been an increase in transfers to deposits in foreign banks.

CBR Report 2023

Growth of retail investors in brokerage accounts in Russia by 53% to 9.2 trillion rubles

In 2023, retail investors' funds in brokerage accounts in Russia increased by 53% compared to the previous year and reached 9.2 trillion rubles. The inflow of new money to the stock market blocked the outflow of 2022, which amounted to 757 billion rubles. This is stated in a study by the Bank of Russia, the results of which were published on March 13, 2024.

Of the 9.2 trillion rubles, approximately 8.5 trillion rubles fell on securities and 0.5 trillion rubles - on cash in rubles and foreign currency. The upswing came from positive reassessment and new investment. In the context of the growth of the stock market and dividend payments of issuers, the share of Russian shares increased most significantly in the asset structure. The average account size in 2023 increased in relation to 2022 from 1.3 million to 1.9 million rubles.

Retail investor funds in brokerage accounts in Russia increased by 53%

In 2023, the growth of labor income, a decrease in uncertainty and an increase in inflation expectations contributed to the interest of the population in investment in the stock market. Individuals chose Russian stocks, federal loan bonds (OFZs) and exchange-traded mutual funds (mutual funds) investing in the money market and gold for their investments. The number of retail investors reached 29.7 million people, which is 39% of the country's economically active population.

The increase in the profitability of bank deposits and money market funds led to a decrease in the share of investments in bonds of credit institutions and funds in brokerage accounts. Despite the weakening of the ruble, the share of foreign assets, mostly frozen, decreased over the year from 31% to 26% due to the issue of replacement bonds. Thanks to the growth in customer trading activity and new sources of income, 76% of brokers - NFOs ended the year with a profit. The profitability of most companies reached record levels.^[2]

The number of qualified investors in Russia for the year increased by a third

According to the results of the 4th quarter of 2023, the number of qualified investors reached 737 thousand people, which is 33% more than in 2022. This was announced on March 13, 2024 by Interfax with reference to the "Review of Key Broker Indicators" from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

At the end of the year, qualified investors, who made up 1.9% of the total number of customers, owned 76% of the assets. The total number of customers has grown to 39 million people. At the same time, according to the Moscow Exchange, the number of individuals with a brokerage account has grown to 29.7 million people. This is 39% of the economically active population of the country.

The number of qualified investors has reached 737 thousand people

The total value of assets of individual residents in brokerage services increased to 9.2 trillion rubles, of which 8.5 trillion rubles were in securities, and 0.5 trillion - in cash in rubles or other currency.

The Bank of Russia also noted the high interest of the population in the stock market and the increase in household incomes as a factor leading to an increase in the number of broker clients.

Despite the gradual saturation of the client base of brokers, growth rates accelerated at the end of the year amid increased inflation expectations, the weakening of the ruble and the growth of the stock index, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation commented.

The inflow of new money to the market in 2023 blocked the outflow of finance in 2022. The volume of contributions to brokerage accounts amounted to 1.25 trillion rubles, while a year earlier an outflow of 757 billion rubles was recorded. The bulk of the inflow was formed by contributions from qualified investors. The average size of the account of individuals on brokerage services increased from 205 to 236 thousand rubles.^[3]

The number of active individual clients has grown to 7.6 million people

At the end of 2023, the number of active individual clients in the Russian stock market reached 7.6 million people, which is a new record. For comparison, in 2019 this value was estimated at 0.9 million. Such data at the end of January 2024 was disclosed by the Moscow Exchange.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, referring to the statements of the managing director of the Moscow Exchange Vladimir Krekoten, in 2023 individuals became a key source of liquidity in the stock market and the derivatives market. In 2021, they accounted for about 40% of the turnover on the stock market, while in 2023 - about 80%. In the bond market, the share rose from 10% to 16%, and in the derivatives market - from 43% to 65%. It is noted that 2023 was a record year in terms of the inflow of funds from individuals into investments.

Krekoten says that from 2019 to 2023, the number of investors in the segment of individuals in the market is growing steadily. During this period, the number of individual clients rose from 3.9 million to 29.7 million, and the number of their accounts - from 6.1 million to 52.4 million. In addition, the number of individual clients who make at least one transaction within a month has increased from 0.4 million to 3.6 million.

We see that people have more and more interest in this market. This will support the investment opportunities that will appear on the market. Structural restructuring of the economy is impossible without the inflow of new money, and this inflow is now largely beginning to be provided by individuals, - notes Krekoten.

According to the published data, in 2023, nine IPOs (initial public offering of securities) and four SPOs (secondary placement) took place at the Moscow Exchange. Krekoten said that more than 20 transactions could take place in 2024, but the final number will depend on market conditions, demand, interest rate, etc.^[4]

Net cash flow to the stock market contracted 10 times. Core Investments in Corporate Resident Bonds

Interest in the Russian stock market at the end of the 1st quarter of 2023 remained extremely low after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation records literally multiple smaller net flows into the stock market based on data from the Moscow Exchange and the St. Petersburg Exchange.

In 2021, the total net cash flow of Russian individuals to the stock market amounted to over 2 trillion rubles, where 570 billion rubles were allocated to shares and DRs of Russian issuers and quasi-investors, 366 billion rubles to foreign shares, almost 1 trillion to bonds of Russian issuers and the rest (slightly more than 100 billion) in units and ETFs.

After the start of the military special operation in Ukraine, everything changed. Since the opening of the market (from April 2022 to March 31, 2023) net cash flow decreased to 217 billion rubles (almost 10 times less than in 2021), where shares and DRs of Russian issuers and quasi-investors were bought out for 42 billion rubles, foreign shares sold for 47 billion rubles (the main sales were in March by 200 billion), 282 billion were redistributed into bonds of Russian issuers, where over 150 billion passed in Q1 2023, and shares were not in demand.

From the statistics of the Central Bank, we can conclude that shares and ETFs were de facto practically "destroyed," demand shrank to zero, and in shares, taking into account foreign shares in the aggregate, the cash flow is about zero. Almost everything goes into bonds, and not in OFZs, but in corporate bonds of Russian residents.

In the 1st quarter of 2023, the stock market began to wake up a little (the bond sector), while the shares were frozen, but this is the data for the 1st quarter even before the large-scale market rally, which occurred from March to June.

Trading turnover and liquidity did not improve. A turnover passes through individuals about 2.5 times lower than it was before the SVO in 2021.

On the one hand, this shows unrealized potential within the framework of deferred demand with a surplus of liquid resources, but on the other hand shows a complete lack of enthusiasm and confidence in the market.

87% of brokerage customers have zero accounts. Only 225 thousand accounts have an impact on the market

The phenomenal influx of clients into the Russian financial market (almost 8 times from 3.8 to 31 million customers from Q3 2019 to Q1 2023), which brokers and the Moscow Exchange often flaunt in their presentations, is nothing more than a fiction.

There are fewer unique clients - only 24.5 million (which is a third of the economically active population), however, there are fewer real and active clients: 87.4% of unique clients are empty and near-zero (up to 10 thousand rubles) accounts and another 5.9% ultra-small accounts (from 10 to 100 thousand rubles), i.e. 93.2% of customers do not represent values ​ ​ for the pricing of assets on the market. Interestingly, before the start of the conflict in Ukraine, there were 90.1%, i.e. the number of empty and near-zero clients increased by 3.1 percentage points.

A third of the economically active population of Russia was "shoved" into the market thanks to the semi-automatic and/or remote simplified opening of accounts, which significantly reduced the entry threshold, but this does not say anything about the market profile.

The main activity in the market (by trading turnover) is represented by a group of accounts in the range from 1 to 6 million rubles, and according to the Central Bank, the average account size excluding empty and small accounts is 1.4 million rubles.

The share of these accounts decreases from 3.4% in 2020, 2.3% in 2021 to 1.5% after the start of a special operation in Ukraine, although in absolute terms the number of accounts has increased - now about 370 thousand customers have from 1 to 6 million rubles in their accounts, and in 2020 there were 330 thousand. There is growth in three years, but this is only about 40 thousand clients (but not 26 million in three years according to broker reports), which is of the greatest interest as the main target audience.

As for the concentration of assets, 89% of all assets hold accounts over 1 million rubles (470 thousand people), almost 2/3 of the market for customers with over 10 million rubles (56 thousand people), and the ultra-rich (over 500 million rubles or 540 people) control almost 18% of the market.

About 200-250 thousand customers with over 1 million and making at least one transaction per month have a pricing influence on the market among active accounts, so talk about a third of the economically active population is greatly exaggerated, Spydell Finance wrote.

Capitalization of Russian issuers - $550 billion, 25th place in the world or half a percent of global capitalization

As of March 23, 2023, the capitalization of public companies around the world is about $102 trillion, according to calculations by Spydell Finance based on data from national exchanges and TradingView.

Developing countries that pursue relatively independent/isolated policies from the Anglo-Saxon world are growing rapidly and the center of development is shifting from the United States and Europe to Asia.

Russia occupies about half a percent of global capitalization and has suffered the largest losses since 2008 in dollar terms among all major countries of the world - over half for comparable companies and more than 1/3 for the capitalization of the entire market (during this time, many new companies have been listed).

Market capitalization is not a universal measure of economic development, but shows the depth and capacity of the national financial system.

What affects the capitalization of the stock market?

• Shareholder policy - the rate of payment of dividends and the amount of funds allocated to the baibek.

• Level of economic development/depth of sector diversification, which ultimately determines wealth and ability to invest.

• Medium-term business margins. For example, in Japan and South Korea, with the high development of the financial market, the value of companies is quite low due to the critically low margin.

• Sector innovation. In the context of a change in technological structures and with scientific and technological progress, the business growth rate and potential margin are always higher for an innovative business, which at all times was estimated to be much more expensive than the formed sectors. Growth economics versus value economics.

• The degree of participation of the population (the main holder in any developed country) in the stock market.

• Monetization of the economy - the higher the money supply, the higher the market capitalization, all other things being equal (in national currency), as one of the main channels for absorbing excess liquidity. For example, in 2020-2021, the main direction where "helicopter money" was distributed in the United States is the stock market.

• The depth of development of the financial system and the range of financial intermediaries, investment funds and financial holdings. The more developed the financial system, the more liquid and capacious the financial market and the higher the multipliers, all other things being equal.

• The value of interest rates - the lower the rates, the higher the capitalization and, as a rule, vice versa. This is detailed in individual materials, if possible.

• Political stability. It is impossible to invest either medium- or long-term where there is no mechanism of natural transformation/rotation of the elite and intra-elite balance sheet. Large and long-term capital does not take root where political risks are relevant.

• Long-term macroeconomic certainty. A more dynamic parameter that directly affects the investment climate and economic growth prospects.

• Protection of property rights in the complex. The quality of the judicial system and the impartiality of the court (the ability to defeat the system in court), the quality of development and completeness of the legislative framework, legal coverage, etc.

• The level of security of financial infrastructure, which reduces infrastructure risks.

• Quality of corporate reporting, corporate transparency and communication channel with the market. A sample of the quality of corporate reporting and communication with investors is the United States, in second place Japan and Western with. Europe Canada

• The degree of presence of non-residents in the market, which largely drives financial globalization, although it increases volatility.

• Free-float.

Reasoning about the eternal cheapness of the Russian market is not always productive. If you go through the above points and assess the Russian market, many questions will disappear automatically. On the other hand, there are positive movements on the participation of the population in the market. There are shifts in shareholder policy. In Russia, the marginality of the business is still very high. One of the indicators that stands out is the monetization of the economy (by money supply) relative to the capitalization of the market, where the market is really cheap.

Russian Muslims banned from short positions, margin trade and stock futures

Russian Muslims were banned from short positions and marginal trade, the Council of Ulema of the Spiritual Directorate of Muslims of the Russian Federation (DUM RF) said in March 2023.

It is also impossible to trade stock futures and buy securities of companies engaged in prohibited sharia activities.

2022

Public companies in Russia paid 3.4 trillion rubles in dividends. List of leaders

Since 2007, Russian public companies have paid almost 26 trillion dividends based on IFRS reporting on their own calculations. Currently, Russian companies pay 10 times more than the average annual payments in 2007-2011.

From 2009 to 2021, dividend payments grew every year without exceptions from 0.2 trillion in 2009 to 3.6 trillion in 2021. The most rapid breakthrough occurred from 2016 to 2019, when dividends increased from 1.2 to 2.9 trillion rubles.

In 2019-2020, dividend payments amounted to 2.9 trillion rubles, in 2021 increased to 3.6 trillion, and in 2022 decreased to 3.4 trillion.

The COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the sanctions blow in 2022 did not affect the actual dividend flow, as can be seen from the presented diva schedule.

The leaders of dividend payments are changing dynamically, but it is possible to compensate for the falling dividends of "weak" companies.

For example, in the 2021 calendar year, metallurgists were the driver of dividend growth with relatively weak results of oil and gas companies, and in 2022 exactly the opposite - metallurgists and banks fell out, and all were compensated by oil and gas companies.

Why were divas so tall in 2022?

• 1.2 trillion from Gazprom, plus
• 550 billion from Lukoil,
• 270 billion from Novatek,
• 250 billion from Rosneft,
• 122 billion from TATNEFT.

Further, large payments were from Fosagro for 142 billion and record dividends from MMC Norilsk Nickel for 413 billion (January 12 and July 10, 2022). These are those who paid more than 100 billion in 2022.

The number of qualified investors increased by 64% to 556 thousand people

By the end of 2022, there were 556 thousand qualified investors in Russia, which is 64% more than a year earlier, and also 7% more compared to the end of September 2022. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation cited such data in its study published in March 2023.

As noted in the Central Bank, the growth in the number of qualified investors is associated with tightening the criteria for obtaining this status.

The planned tightening of requirements for obtaining the status of a qualified investor led to an increase in the number of such investors, but their share in the industry remained insignificant, the regulator explained.

Most often, in 2022, clients received the status of a qualified investor according to the criterion of assets (6 million rubles), the Central Bank indicates. By March 2023, the regulator is already discussing a phased increase in property qualification for qualified investors: the previously proposed amount of property qualification of 30 million rubles as part of the recognition of an investor as qualified can be reduced, "but reduced reasonably." It is possible that the property qualification will increase in two stages.

The Bank of Russia also pointed to a high concentration of assets - by the end of 2022, qualified investors accounted for about 1.8% of the total number of customers, but at the same time owned 67% of assets.

For unqualified investors, on January 1, 2023, a ban on the purchase of securities of issuers from "unfriendly" countries came into force. Unqualified investors will not be able to purchase securities even from "friendly" jurisdictions if payments are made on them through financial organizations that are registered in an "unfriendly" state, or the rights to these securities are taken into account by financial organizations that are registered in an "unfriendly" state.

2022 OVERVIEW OF KEY INDICATORS OF PROFESSIONAL PARTICIPANTS IN THE SECURITIES MARKET

Value of assets on brokerage services 6 trillion rubles

The total value of brokerage assets amounted to 6 trillion rubles in Q4 2022, where 5.3 trillion are securities and over 0.6 trillion - cash in rubles and foreign currency.

Up to 29m brokerage customers, but 66% have empty accounts

Registered clients in the trading system on brokerage services of the Moscow Exchange and St. Petersburg have grown more than large-scale in recent years.

In December 2009, there were 700 thousand unique clients, after 5 years, registered clients increased to almost 1 million, in December 2017 there were 1.4 million clients, at the end of 2019 already 4 million, a year later - 9.8 million, in 2021 - 20 million and in 2022 an increase to 29 million.

In 2022, despite the crisis, every two weeks customers increased as before (until 2017) in 5 years, i.e. the pace increased 100-150 times! Incredibly!

However, the entire client base is fictitious. 93% of all customers have empty (66% of all customers) or about zero accounts (up to 100 thousand rubles).

In the range from 100 thousand to 1 million assets, about 5% of customers (1.5 million people) and this category is the most active in the trading structure on the Moscow Exchange.

Average accounts from 1 million to 6 million have 423 thousand people (a year ago there were 470 thousand of them). Relatively large accounts from 6 to 10 million rubles have 40 thousand people (a year ago - 52 thousand). Large accounts from 10 to 100 million rubles for 58 thousand people (in 2021 - 79 thousand).

The most significant decrease was seen in the category from 100 to 500 million rubles, where the number of customers fell from 6.5 thousand people to 4.2 thousand. In the group from 500 to 1000 million in 2022 there were only 358 people, compared with 543 in 2021. The number of billionaires decreased from 269 to 192 people.

There is a clear tendency to impoverish customers in brokerage services, which is associated with a fall in shares and blocking assets, plus there is a tendency to close accounts in Russia and relocate to other countries in the group of secured clients over 10 million rubles.

0.2% of customers own 62% of all assets (over 6 trillion rubles) registered to individuals. 1.8% of customers control 88% of all assets, and 6.9% of customers own over 99% of assets in the Russian financial system.

When brokers and the exchange say that over 1/3 of the economic active population in the financial market, it is more correct to make an edit that there are, in fact, only 2 million people on the market who have influence on the market.

Households in Russia for the year increased investments in Russian shares by 2 trillion rubles

In 2022, households RUSSIAN FEDERATION invested about 1.99 trillion rubles in shares of Russian companies, which is 5.2 times more than a year ago, equal to 382 billion rubles. Such data are provided in Bank of Russia.

According to Interfax, citing materials from the regulator, investments in shares and shares of resident investment funds in 2022 increased by 247 billion rubles, which is 20% less than in 2021 (by 307 billion rubles).

At the same time, in 2022, investments in quoted shares of non-residents in foreign currency (in ruble equivalent) were reduced by 88 billion rubles against growth in 2021 by 605 billion rubles and in shares and shares of investment funds of non-residents by 22 billion rubles against an increase in 2021 by 134 billion rubles.

In the debt market, households as a whole increased investments by 55 billion rubles, which is 17 times less than in 2021 (by 918 billion rubles).

Including when increasing investments in long-term foreign currency debt securities of residents by 151 billion rubles (this is 35% less than in 2021 - 233 billion rubles) and by 21 billion rubles in long-term ruble debt securities of residents (20 times less than in 2021 - by 410 billion rubles), investments in short-term debt securities of residents were reduced by 42 billion rubles against an increase of 9 billion rubles in 2021, and investments in debt securities of non-residents were reduced by 74 billion rubles against an increase in 2021 by 269 billion rubles (including in foreign exchange securities - a reduction of 63 billion rubles against an increase of 260 billion rubles a year earlier).

Households in 2022 increased investments in cash rubles by 2.026 trillion rubles (in 2021 almost 3 times less - by 700 billion rubles) and in cash - by 1.188 trillion rubles in ruble equivalent (this is almost 8 times more than in 2021 - by 151 billion rubles).^[5]

Share market decline by 43% at the end of the year

Against the background of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian stock market collapsed by 43% at the end of the year. The Moscow Exchange index has become an absolute outsider in terms of dynamics among the main world stock indices.

74% of free circulation is made up of foreigners from unfriendly countries. The share of individuals in the auction increased 2 times to 80%

74% of the free float (free float) of the Russian stock market falls on "unfriendly non-residents," said Sergei Shvetsov, former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, and now head of the supervisory board of the Moscow Exchange.

Individuals have lost interest in the market

Trading turnover in the third quarter of 2022 fell to a minimum in 5-6 years, and in comparison with the number of active customers, turnover has never been as low as it is now.

The total departure of market makers, arbitrators, hagers and algorithmic systems (robots) from the term market led to the complete degradation of foreign exchange contracts and liquidity.

In terms of cash flows, everything is sad. In 2020, the average quarterly net cash inflow into all financial instruments traded through the Moscow Exchange and St. Petersburg Exchange amounted to 300 billion (over 1.2 trillion per year), in 2021 over 500 billion (more than 2 trillion per year).

In Q1 2022, there was a sharp drop in net inflows to 121 billion due to a flight from foreign shares by 200 billion rubles per quarter, while enthusiasm for shares of Russian issuers remained at a high level (164 billion, which is twice as high as 2020-2021).

Interest in shares of Russian issuers decreased in the second quarter, when net purchases amounted to only 16 billion and zeroed out in the 3rd quarter of 2022. Foreign issuers withdraw from shares, but less actively - 27 billion in April to September.

For the 2nd and 3rd quarters, only 16 billion rubles came to all bonds traded on the Russian market, compared with 425 billion in 2021 and 274 billion in 2020 for the same period.

Units and ETFs were destroyed a little less than completely - they had not previously been distinguished by high investor participation and liquidity, and now even more so, the Spydell Finance channel wrote.

The share of active broker clients reached an all-time low in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the share of active customers (who completed at least one transaction during this period) among non-Ban brokers reached an all-time low of 14.25%. If we summarize brokerage clients, then again the share of clients trading at least once a quarter will be minimal since 2017 - 10.71%.

What trends can be recorded on the basis of data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation? Large customers leave the market or lose assets, interest in the market disappears from a wide range of investors and speculators, which is reflected in a decrease in net cash flows, in a drop in turnover and total liquidity.

Expectations of the return of large residents to the Russian market after Western sanctions have not yet been met. The market is very shallow

The Russian market has become very small. After the start of a military special operation in Ukraine, the concentration of assets of the rich and super-rich in the market significantly decreased.

At the end of 2021, clients whose assets amount to over 500 million rubles held 17.2% of the entire Russian market, and by Q3 2022 the share of these customers decreased to 14%.

Assets refer to investments in stocks, bonds, shares, cash instruments and cash in brokerage accounts.

This trend applies to wealthy clients with assets in the market in the range from 100 to 500 million rubles, the share of which decreased from 19.1% to 15.2%.

Secured clients with assets from 10 million to 100 million rubles also lost market share - a decrease from 32.1% to 31.2%.

The group from 10 million and above reduced its share from 68.4% to 60.3%.

But the share of customers from 1 to 6 million increased significantly, the concentration of which increased from 16.5% to 19.6% and a noticeable increase in the share with small accounts from 100 thousand to 1 million (from 8% to 11.9%).

How do I interpret this data? This cannot be explained by the fall in assets and the high concentration of assets of wealthy clients in the stock market, otherwise the 1 billion + group would not have transformed into a group of 1 to 6 million.

After the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, one of the main hopes for a revival of the market is the arrival of large, wealthy clients from among Russian residents (politicians, officials, businessmen), who were pinned down in the West, banning the export of capital from Russia and any financial communications with the international financial system.

If they are rejected in the West, then the only focus of stability and reliability, at least from the point of view of maintaining assets, is in Russia, but not.

Moreover, the opposite trend is recorded - the departure of large and influential players. The market has definitely ground, the importance of small and ultra-small accounts is growing, the Spydell Finance channel noted in December 2022.

The problem is that small speculators and investors are not consolidated, their actions are predominantly subject to reflex reactions in conditions of lack of information, experience, knowledge, etc., and therefore it is problematic to direct energy in one direction in the way that large players usually do.

So large clients do not yet particularly believe in the prospect of Russia and the economy - there is no activity on their part, which indirectly confirms the loss of liquidity in the market and the lack of significant movements in assets.

Of those 22.6 million unique clients in the trading system of the Moscow Exchange, which brokers and representatives of the exchange so like to flaunt, speaking of the success of attracting a client base, in fact, there are very few "live" clients.

• Almost 2/3 of these customers are empty according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Another 28% have less than 100 thousand accounts, i.e. 93% of accounts are either empty or near-zero, and this is over 21 million customers.

• From 100 thousand to 1 million have 5.3% of all customers and this share is actively decreasing. Two years ago, there were 9.4-10% of such customers.

• Millionaires, but not very large (up to 6 million) only 1.4% compared to 3.4% in Q4 2020.

• From 6 to 10 million is very small - only 0.13% of customers (this is less than 30 thousand people) compared to 0.37% in Q4 2020 (then it was 33 thousand people).

• A larger category from 10 to 100 million rubles - 0.19% in 3 quarter 222 (43.5 thousand people) compared to 0.6% in 4 quarter 2022 (53 thousand people).

• Over 100 million only in 3300 people against 5100 people in 2020.

The trend is developing in such a way that the market objectively grinds. Although customers are growing, but fictitious are empty, the concentration of large customers has decreased three times in relative terms and 15% lower in quantitative terms.

Money in the market has become noticeably no more and is distributed mainly in the segment of small customers who never form trends in the market, the Spydell Finance channel noted.

Russia in 23rd place in the world in terms of capitalization of public companies - $618 billion

How is the capitalization of public companies distributed among the countries of the world? When sampling over 45 thousand companies from around the world, global capitalization is estimated at $102.1 trillion as of November 26, 2022, according to Spydell Finance calculations and TradingView data consolidation. This is lower than Bloomberg's global market estimates (about $108 trillion).

The sample is cleared of ETFs, depositary receipts and other surrogates in order to exclude multiple calculations, since when consolidating public companies from different exchanges, companies can meet 4-5 times (especially European ones).

26 countries have a capitalization of over $500 billion and 43 countries have a capitalization of over $100 billion.

Neutral countries form 27.4 trillion of capitalization, which is just under 27% of global capitalization.

The Russian market is estimated at $618 billion - this is 0.6% of the world market and 23rd place between Denmark and Indonesia.

Among neutral countries above Russia: China, India (3.5 trillion), Saudi Arabia (2.7 trillion, where Saudi Arabian Oil forms 1.94 trillion), Hong Kong (1.5 trillion), Brazil and the UAE.

Tax credit for the sale of shares of IT companies in Russia extended until 2027

In November 2022, the State Duma adopted a law extending for five years - until the end of 2027 - the benefits, thanks to which private investors are exempted from personal income tax when selling securities of companies in the high-tech sector. A prerequisite - shares, bonds or investment shares before that continuously belonged to the investor for more than a year.

{{quote 'We in the government believe that it should be extended for at least five years so that citizens are more actively invested in the tools of high-tech companies, - said Finance Minister RFAnton Siluanov in July 2022 at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects. }}

According to him, measures are being taken to increase the number of placements of high-tech companies on the stock market, and raising funds from the financial market is "also a good help for the development of companies." In addition, the authorities prepared a proposal to create a single tax deduction for personal income tax "in the amount of funds contributed to all long-term investment products with an investment period of at least ten years," Siluanov said. Such a deduction should be no more than ₽400 thousand per year, the minister added. The Ministry of Finance expects the State Duma to adopt the relevant law in the autumn session.

The Central Bank supported the idea of ​ ​ the Ministry of Finance. The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina noted that the stock market by 2022 is the main source of raising funds for companies in the technological sector, because banks do not want to lend them due to high risks.

The Association of Computer and Information Technology Enterprises (APKIT) offered First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov to extend the period of tax benefits for holders of securities of high-tech companies, since, according to its participants, the initiative may become one of the additional measures to support initial public offerings on the stock exchange (IPO) of domestic companies.^[6]

74% of securities in free float of the Russian stock market falls on "unfriendly non-residents"

About 74% of the free float (free float) of the Russian stock market falls on "unfriendly non-residents," follows from the figures given in September 2022 by the head of the Supervisory Board of the Moscow Exchange, Sergei Shvetsov.

The number of foreign investors investing in Russian securities is growing. Top 5 countries

In early September 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation published a report in which it disclosed the number of foreign investors who invest in the Russian stock market through local brokers.

According to the regulator's calculation, in the second quarter of 2022, the number of foreign investors increased by 6%, or 1000 people, largely due to citizens of China, India and Serbia. By the end of June 2022, the Bank of Russia counted about 18,800 people with assets worth 25.8 billion rubles.

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the following leaders in terms of investments in Russian securities:

• Croatia (with assets of 4.4 billion rubles for 34 investors),
• Faroe Islands (2 billion assets per 2 investors),
• Italy (1.5 billion rubles)
• and the United States (1.1 billion rubles).

In terms of the number of citizens of other countries investing in domestic securities, the following are in the lead: states CIS

• Belarus (4.9 thousand people),
• Kazakhstan (2.7 thousand),
• Uzbekistan (2.3 thousand),
• Ukraine (2 thousand),
• Kyrgyzstan (1.4 thousand),
• Tajikistan (1.1 thousand, but their number for the quarter increased by 23% - the maximum among all countries).

Investors from the countries of the former CIS come to the Russian market, since it is more developed than the markets of their countries. In addition, there are a large number of promising undervalued companies in Russia, Finam Dmitry Lesnov, head of the FG client service development department, explained to Frank Media. Mostly foreign investors are interested in long-term purchases of shares bonds and the largest Russian companies.

There has always been interest in the Russian market, especially in the CIS, "he adds.[7]

Only 15% of private investors hold more than 15,000 rubles in their brokerage accounts

As of August 2022, about 65% of individual brokerage accounts in Russia are inactive. Only about 15% of private investors hold more than 15,000 rubles in their brokerage accounts.

The government is ready to spend 1 trillion rubles on the purchase of shares in Russian companies

On March 1, 2022, it became known about the decision of the Government of the Russian Federation to allocate up to 1 trillion rubles for the purchase of shares in Russian companies. To conduct transactions, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is allowed to attract "ВЭБ.РФ" and specialized financial organizations.

The Ministry of Finance of Russia... To carry out in 2022 the acquisition at the expense of the National Welfare Fund of shares of Russian issuers in the amount of no more than 1 trillion rubles on the terms determined by the Ministry of Finance of Russia, - says the order of the Government of the Russian Federation, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

As of February 1, 2022, the amount of funds of the NWF amounted to 13.6 trillion rubles in rubles. At the end of February, the NWF turned out to be one of the structures that fell under US sanctions - the US Treasury banned operations with the fund. In 2021, the NWF fully completed its withdrawal from dollar assets.

As Vedomosti writes with reference to an expert in one of the major banks, the purpose of the new measure is to support the stock market. The government took similar actions during the financial crisis in 2009 - and in the end it worked well on this, the source recalled. According to him, the papers were purchased at a reduced cost and re-issued when the situation stabilized. It is rational for companies to buy back shares from the market if the valuation of securities is underestimated, the economist added.

The Russian securities market showed a large-scale fall - on February 24, 2022, Russian indices reached their lows during the day since 2016. Earlier, trading in shares on the Moscow Exchange and the St. Petersburg Exchange was suspended, and was also transferred to the discrete auction mode due to high volatility. By March 1, 2022, trading on the Moscow Exchange is held only in the foreign exchange and money markets. It was reported that the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of opening trading in other markets, depending on the development of the situation.^[8]

Record decline of 38% per day on the day of the start of the operation on demilitarization of Ukraine

The fall of Russian shares on the first day of the special operation to demilitarize Ukraine was the third largest drop in the history of the market in national currency.

2021

For the first time in 5 years, foreign investors invested more in the Russian stock market than they brought out

For the first time in 5 years, foreign investors invested more in the Russian stock market than they withdrew. This happened in 2021, Kommersant reports, citing its own estimates based on reports from Bank of America and BCS Global Markets (BCS GM). The article was published at the end of December 2021.

According to published statistics, in 2021, net investments of non-residents in Russian shares exceeded $1.58 billion, the outflow of foreign investors approached $700 million. This is the first positive result since 2016. Then investors invested more than $860 million in Russia through country funds and $1.2 billion through global funds.

The stock market of Russian companies from the beginning and at the end of 2021 grew by 15.5% to 3787 points on the Moscow Exchange index. During the year, the market rose much more than this indicator, but after the highs reached in October, it lost almost half of the growth. This was facilitated in particular by the emergence of a new strain of coronavirus and the geopolitical situation around Russia, which influenced investor sentiment.

In 2021, investors invested over $105 billion in emerging markets funds. Of this amount, the Russian market accounted for $2.27 billion. Bullish sentiment was helped by optimistic expectations that persisted for most of the year regarding the growth of the global economy and the soft monetary policy of central banks. Only in the fourth quarter, attitudes towards emerging markets worsened amid rising commodity inflation, the curtailment of monetary incentives of the Federal Reserve System and the rapid spread of a new strain of the coronavirus COVID-19.

Another situation was with country funds focused exclusively on the Russian stock market - in the first three quarters of 2021, more than $800 million was withdrawn from them, largely due to the fact that Russian and Eastern European funds are becoming smaller due to an increase in global emerging market funds.^[9]

The Russian stock market showed the best dividend yield in 10 years

In 2021, the Russian stock market showed the best dividend yield in 10 years. This is stated in the study of the investment group "Aton." The data were released by Vedomosti on December 9, 2021.

According to experts, the Russian stock market turned out to be the best in terms of expected dividend yield (the ratio of the annual dividend per share to the share price) on the horizon of the year among both developing and developed countries.

The MSCI Russia market index (part of the MSCI Emerging Markets group of emerging markets indices) showed 9.4%. It is followed by Brazil's MSCI Brazil with 7.9%, with MSCI Turkey in third place at 6.3%. MSCI EM's overall emerging markets index delivered a dividend yield of 3%. Among the indices of developed markets, the European MSCI has the best indicator - 3.1%. Similar growth in the stock market was observed only in the late 90s, mid 2000s and several times in the 2010s.

High yields on Russian securities in 2021 were provided by high prices for oil, gas, steel and coal, as well as the weakening of the ruble. There are about 20 companies on the Russian market with a yield above 11%.

Aton experts called the purchase of dividend shares one of the best long-term investment strategies, since it allows you to receive dividends, reinvest them and record profits from the stock price. In addition, dividend stocks are less volatile compared to fast-growing companies that don't pay dividends.

In the financial sector, analysts expect high dividends in 2021 from VTB (expected yield - 14%) and Sberbank (8-10%). The commodity and financial sectors account for more than 70% of the Russian market capitalization.

Experts call the main risks for further growth of dividend yield a significant drop in raw material prices, which can lead to a decrease in income and, as a result, the size of dividend payments of companies.^[10]

Largest brokerage companies by number of clients

Russia ranked 2nd in dividend yield of shares among developing countries

Russia entered the top three developing countries in terms of dividend yield of shares. This was reported by analysts at VTB Capital. According to them, the dividend yield for securities from the MSCI Russia index based on Bloomberg consensus forecast is 7.95% over the next 12 months.

The higher rate among developing countries is registered only Pakistan in - 8.8%. Dividend yield exceeds 6% in (Greece 6.9%) and (Czech Republic 6.2%). On average, the indicator for developing countries is 2.4%, and in - USA 1.6%, reports with RBC reference to the VTB Capital report.

According to the data of this company and Bloomberg's consensus forecast for February 2021, analysts expect the largest returns from Evraz (20%), NLMK (19%), Alrosa (17%), Surgutneftegaz (prefs, 17%), MMK (16%), Severstal (13%), Rusagro and Norilsk Nickel (above 13%).

According to experts, the large dividends paid by Russian companies are associated with increased risks of investment in the Russian market - currency, sanctions - and general uncertainty of investors, which entails a discount on the shares themselves.

Dividend yields on the Russian market are almost at their peak, Ilya Petersky, VTB Capital's chief stock market strategist, told the publication. He recalled that the exception was the start period. pandemics Then the dividend forecasts were not revised, unlike the profit forecasts, which worsened.

The high level of dividend yield at the moment can be explained by investors' uncertainty about the stability of high dividends from Russian companies, the expert said.

In particular, currency markets play a role here. For 2020, the Russian currency has seriously lost in price. The ruble fell 16.5% against the dollar and 24% against the euro.^[11]

2020

Increase in brokerage customers to 9.9 million

Increase in the volume of investments of Russians by 2 times, up to 6 trillion rubles - NAUFOR

According to the estimates of the National Association of Stock Market Participants (NAUFOR), the amount of investments of Russians in market assets in the results of coronavirus 2020 reached 6 trillion rubles. A year earlier, investments by Russian individuals in the stock market were estimated at 3.2 trillion rubles.

According to experts, during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the fall of the ruble and the growth of the American market, retail investors were actively interested in shares of foreign companies, while the demand for Russian securities decreased. According to the NAUFOR survey, by the end of 2020, Russians held the bulk of their funds in brokerage accounts - 5 trillion rubles, which is 85% more than in 2019. Of these funds, 270 billion rubles are placed in individual investment accounts (IIS), RBC reports .

According to NAUFOR, by the end of 2020, Russians placed 1 trillion rubles in trust management accounts, which is 430 billion rubles more than a year earlier (this amount includes 105 billion rubles placed on IIS in trust). The total amount of investments in IIS is 375 billion rubles (220 billion rubles a year earlier).

Russians in 2020 were increasingly interested in foreign stocks. By the end of December, investments in them amounted to 13.3% of the invested funds against 3.5% a year earlier. The growth was mainly due to a decrease in the share of investments in Russian shares (from 23.4 to 18.3%) and federal loan bonds (OFZ) (from 9 to 3.9%). The share of investments in cash also increased - from 13.9 to 16.3%. For other types of assets, NAUFOR did not record significant changes: 17% of investments are in bonds in foreign currency, 9.7% are in bank ruble bonds (not structural), 4.8% are invested in corporate ruble bonds, 4.6 and 5.9% - in structural ruble and foreign currency bonds.^[12]

Capitalization of Sberbank

2019: Russians shift deposits to stock market

Private investors are gradually conquering the Russian stock market. The number of unique clients on the Moscow Exchange in September 2019 exceeded 3 million people, and the balances on their accounts exceed 1 trillion rubles. Attractive investment conditions and simplified identification contribute to this. A significant part of investors behave quite conservatively, preferring debt securities.

Notes