Qualitative and quantitative estimates of import substitution by industry at the end of 2025

What market segments are among the leaders in terms of import substitution rates today

Russian software is already successfully replacing foreign counterparts in several mass and system-wide segments. The public sector became the leader in import substitution, where the administrative resource and regulatory pressure ensured a high pace of transition to Russian products.

Operating systems (Astra Linux, RED OS, ALT) have become the standard for government agencies and critical infrastructure, although their share in the overall market is still small. Office packages (MyOffice, P7-Office) are also widely implemented, especially in government agencies and large businesses, although user habits and difficulties with integrating legacy systems slow down the complete abandonment of MS Office.

The maximum penetration of domestic software is observed in the category of operating systems. Servers OS are massively implemented, especially in the public sector and infrastructure significant companies. Desktop OS are also widely used, but often in "double-start" mode along with Windows or only in some workplaces. The complete displacement of Windows and MacOS is slower due to user habits and dependence on specific software. Russian office packages have become the de facto standard, especially in the public sector and large business thanks to public procurement and functional sufficiency for basic tasks, - comments Aleksei Dmitriyev, head of the corporate development department of MyOffice.

The financial sector also demonstrates a high degree of substitution: banking systems, CRM, data management tools and analysts in many cases outperform their foreign counterparts in adaptability to local requirements.

Infrastructure solutions are actively being replaced in telecommunications, especially after VMware leaves, and in retail and electronic document management, domestic systems cover up to 85% of needs.

If we talk about the industries in which Nexign works, in particular, telecom - where the instrumental and product base was clear, operators have advanced quite far in terms of replacing critical infrastructure. Similar projects have passed almost all major players in the market, but there are also those companies that are trying to localize previously purchased systems. At the same time, operators are forced to prioritize the budget in the directions of replacing the network core, but by 2026-2027 we expect a shift in focus on BSS. Thus, the domestic BSS market in 2024 was estimated at 52.7 billion rubles, and by 2027 it could reach 110.6 billion rubles, - predicts Maxim Nartov, director of business development at Nexign.

Strong positions among Russian developers in the field of information security, where domestic solutions not only replaced foreign counterparts, but also adapted to the strict requirements of critical infrastructure. Antivirus software, cryptography and SIEM/SOAR systems are competitive and in demand among customers.

The penetration of Russian solutions in the business software segment can be assessed as average, but rapidly growing. Typical CRM, BI tools, electronic document management systems and accounting systems occupy a strong position here.

In the database segment, Russian solutions have made noticeable progress and are competitive in a wide market. Postgres Pro and other DBMS are successfully used, although in high-load scenarios (banks, telecom) the dependence on hybrid solutions remains.

In the data management segment, foreign analogues were almost completely replaced, which became one of the key drivers of market growth. The greatest progress is observed in retail, finance and the telecom industry, where a lot of attention is traditionally paid to analytics and working with data. At the same time, in industry, power and the agricultural industry - including agriculture - working with data is still more of an auxiliary nature, so the pace of development is lower here, "says Najim Mohammad, director of data strategy at Arenadata Group.

According to our estimates, at the beginning of 2025, up to 80% of the needs for operating systems and office packages have already been replaced. Migration in the database and virtualization systems segment was 50-60%. And the replacement of the development tools and the binding layer, including the Java platform, was at the level of 20%. In 2025, in our opinion, the focus of migrations will be in this particular system segment. We see an increase in demand for import substitution of the technology stack of applications written in Java. Companies recycle application architectures and transfer them to domestic software and application servers, which are used to build a secure external contact loop with users, - comments Alexey Zakharov, Director of Technology Consulting at Axiom JDK.

Infrastructure software includes domestic virtualization solutions (RuStack, ZVirt, UDS VDI), which are being actively implemented, especially after the departure of foreign players, although customers face difficulties scaling and managing complex systems.

Corporate messengers and videoconferencing systems are also being actively implemented thanks to FSTEC certification and On-Premise deployment capabilities.

A number of segments so far demonstrate a significant lag in several criteria - quality, functionality, compatibility and stability. The most problematic areas are industrial software (CAD, CAM, CAE, PLM) for high-tech engineering, microelectronics, oil and gas and defense industries. There, Russian analogues are either absent or strongly inferior to Western solutions in terms of calculation accuracy, depth of integration with equipment and reliability. Replacement in these niches is extremely slow due to the high complexity, the duration of the formation of reliable products and the small size of the market.

In the segment of corporate ERP systems, solutions for business analytics and production automation, domestic developments often remain less mature and less integrated with external equipment and services. This causes certain difficulties for large companies when switching to local software. Russian ERPs often require significant customization, expensive refinement and do not always meet the large-scale requirements of large companies. This causes the preservation of hybrid systems and heterogeneity of the landscape.

There are special difficulties with import substitution in corporate complex systems, MES, as well as systems for managing operations in large-scale industries.

Tatyana Shipulina, Delivery manager at Outlines Tech, adds that corporate Microsoft Active Directory systems also remain without Russian analogues. Domestic products do not meet stability and scalability requirements. The tasks of complete replacement of software are complicated by the need not only for technical adaptation, but also for changes in business processes.

Critical lag is observed in the oil and gas sector, medicine, power and defense industries. In these industries, due to the high technological complexity, dependence on highly specialized software and tight integration with hardware, import substitution processes are slow, which leads to risks of failures and deterioration of functionality when replacing foreign systems.

In areas such as printing, aviation and medicine, there are gaps in the functionality and compatibility of domestic solutions. In the oil and gas sector, software replacement is in full swing, but in some cases Russian programs cannot catch up with foreign software in quality, which leads to a shortage of functionality, "said Ekaterina Edemskaya, an analyst engineer at Gazinformservice.

Big Data solutions, development tools for embedded systems and highload applications, as well as mobile OS systems are poorly represented.

Some segments of artificial intelligence and robotics software, including humanoid robots, are also lagging behind.

Experts call the main barriers to the complete replacement of foreign solutions the technical complexity of integration, the lack of competitive analogues in niche segments, high costs for adaptation and customization, as well as business inertia, especially in the private sector.

In general, the Russian IT market is following a confident path of import substitution, especially in segments with massive demand and more versatile products. But specialized and complex solutions still take time, effort and investment to achieve competitiveness on an equal footing with foreign suppliers. In the medium term, we can expect a reduction in the backlog in problem areas due to investments, state support and accumulated implementation experience.

The complete replacement of foreign analogues is planned to be achieved primarily in the oil and gas industry, metallurgy and the transport sector, where significant progress is already being made. At the same time, in such complex segments as ERP systems and heavy industrial platforms, the replacement process will require additional time and resources, since it has not yet been possible to create full-fledged analogues of foreign solutions of the SAP level. Special difficulties will remain in the defense industry and when creating complex corporate systems, where the requirements for functionality and compatibility remain especially high, - summarizes Nikolai Mokretsov, partner and executive director of 1C Pro Consulting.

According to Mikhail Gilyazov, Customer Relations Director of Skala^r (Rubytech Group), the most noticeable progress is being observed in state and infrastructure industries, where support and implementation of domestic solutions have received an additional impetus thanks to state import substitution programs.

According to experts, a significant share of substitution has been achieved at facilities where a ban on the use of foreign software solutions has been in effect since 2025. For server operating systems, the replacement level exceeds 90%. In the segment of corporate-level databases - about 70%. In the banking sector, the share of domestic software reaches 75%, which is associated with a combination of regulatory requirements, a high degree of maturity of IT processes and the availability of resources for large-scale migration projects. In industry, fuel and energy complex, agricultural industry and retail, the replacement rate remains below the market average - in the range of 25-30%, the expert comments.

The expert notes that the basic software has already been replaced by 95% (operating systems and office packages), and now work is underway on infrastructure software (virtualization, DSS), and the database segment is being replaced by the latter - the most difficult for migration. The question of backup remains: the imported stack with magnetic tapes is still dominant due to the lack of domestic tape drives.

How satisfied customers are with the quality of Russian solutions

Over the past two years, Russian business has become much more likely to trust domestic software 一 as evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by Arenadata group employees at the ArenaDay conference: 80% of respondents from the largest Russian companies noted an increase in confidence in Russian IT solutions.^[1]

Experts interviewed by TAdviser unanimously confirm that in recent years the degree of trust and satisfaction with the quality of Russian IT solutions has increased significantly, albeit with nuances that depend on a specific segment and industry. This growth occurs not only under the influence of forced import substitution measures in the public sector and critical industries, but also as a result of conscious business choice due to improved quality, functionality and security of Russian solutions.

Over the past two years, the perception of domestic IT solutions has changed markedly. If at the start of import substitution the introduction of domestic software was often considered as a necessary measure, today it is perceived as a tool for ensuring technological stability. This is facilitated by the development of technologies on the basis of which products are created, the expansion of functionality and the readiness of Russian vendors to accompany the customer at all stages of the system life cycle. Unlike suppliers who have left the market, domestic developers provide a full range of technical support and quickly adapt solutions to industry and corporate requirements, - comments Natalya Zeitenidi, General Director of BFT-Holding.

Customers create a list of wishes for functionality, often broader than the capabilities of imported products, as companies request improvements to the specifics of their work. This opens up opportunities for Russian vendors: unlike global manufacturers focused on unification for the global market, domestic developers can flexibly take into account industry and national requirements thanks to direct communication with customers.

Open test sites have become a serious factor in the growth of trust - both industry (the landfill of the ICK "Finance," created at the initiative of the Central Bank) and general ones. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the creation of an open platform within the framework of the Center for Information Technology, which has already begun to unfold and, according to forecasts, will reach full capacity by the end of next year. It will be a landfill open to all segments of industry - from chemical and mechanical engineering to metalworking. Representatives of the fuel and energy complex and power will also come there. Such sites allow customers to test and test solutions before making a decision on implementation, "comments Mikhail Gilyazov, Skala^r Customer Director (Rubytech Group).

According to the expert, the transition from imported DBMSs, such as Oracle, to domestic solutions with a successful withdrawal to production was indicative, which seriously strengthened market confidence. And in general, over the past 2-3 years, the degree of confidence in domestic decisions has grown significantly. Customers observe the implementation of large projects to transfer critical high-load systems to the Russian stack - primarily in the financial sector and government organizations.

The developers of domestic software really in a short time try to give users an analogue to solve their business problems and even surpass Western vendors, but, in addition, other factors affect trust and satisfaction. We are now observing a tendency to ″ conscious ″ import substitution in the commercial segment, which is starting to use Russian software not because of the requirements of regulators, but from the understanding that this is the foundation for the security of the IT infrastructure, "says Mikhail Gellerman, director of the Astra Group operating systems department.

Large market players who have become "ambassadors" of import substitution demonstrate that domestic solutions can be not only a replacement, but also an effective alternative to foreign counterparts.

A significant factor is the gradual overcoming of the "childhood diseases" of Russian software: developers quickly respond to customer feedback, implement improvements, work on compatibility and usability. The growth in the number of users contributes to the accelerated adaptation of products to the real needs of the business and the improvement of interfaces, which increases loyalty and satisfaction.

Customers began to trust more Russian solutions, including such fundamental ones as the directory service and the virtualization system. This is due not only to the course of import substitution, but also to the improvement of the functionality, stability and security of domestic platforms, which are increasingly being certified and successfully implemented in critical IT infrastructures, - said Timur Badretdinov, head of the infrastructure software department at SysSoft.

Many vendors in 2024 clarified strategic priorities, strengthened their focus on individual industries and functional blocks and began to offer solutions that are more consistent with the needs of target segments. As a result, business more often considers domestic products as a promising basis for the development of the IT landscape, "says Natalya Yaskevich, head of the client directorate of KORUS Consulting Group of Companies.

Satisfaction with the quality of Russian IT solutions has grown, as has confidence in them. There is an increasing number of truly worthy products on the market that can stand side by side with Western counterparts being developed for decades. The improvement in the quality of domestic software, in particular, can be associated with the fact that the number of users of such products has noticeably increased. Vendors receive up-to-date feedback and can quickly adjust solutions to the requirements of business customers, - adds Maxim Kiriyenko, head of technical presale VolgaBlob.

Small businesses are more likely to be satisfied with domestic products, especially cloud HR solutions and document management systems, where integration requirements are less stringent. While large companies criticize functional limitations and compatibility problems, especially when working with several Russian products at the same time. It is noted that complete disappointment in the product is becoming rare, as developers are actively working to eliminate shortcomings.

The development of industrial and specialized competence centers significantly improves the development of standards and the exchange of experience between vendors and customers, which allows you to more accurately adapt solutions to business tasks and increases overall quality and trust.

In a competitive environment, you have to constantly improve to meet the needs of the market. Therefore, Russian software is becoming more and more high-quality and reliable, and users are gradually losing their previous skepticism. More and more people are beginning to perceive domestic solutions as a full-fledged alternative to foreign ones, and some even become real fans and active supporters of Russian software, especially in Russia and the CIS markets, - said Stanislav Orlov, technical director of ALMIS Partner.

One of the key factors affecting trust was better communication between vendors and business. Now large vendors have reached the level of technological partners who not only sell the product, but help to integrate it into business processes, "says Sergey Azorkin, Deputy General Director of Digital Habits.

Some experts note that trust is still heterogeneous: in the public sector it is caused by the requirements of regulators, in the commercial segment it is growing, but expectations remain for improving quality, reducing dependence on improvements and complicated integration. Requirements for clear guarantees (SLAs), stability and security of solutions are also growing.

Despite the high cost of domestic software, customers see the prospects for development and are ready to invest in products they believe in, expecting their gradual improvement. The growth in the number of users and the maturity of the market lead to the emergence of full-fledged competitive IT products, the formation of a culture of trust based not only on the obligations of import substitution, but also on the competitive advantages of Russian developments.

In normal market conditions, the one who has proposed a solution with maximum compliance with the needs (product market fit) wins. Now vendors with more developed distribution are winning, and the growth of users will allow over time to get a product that fully meets expectations. Thus, today they choose a product that they believe in, and not necessarily already brought to an ideal, - explains Alexey Zobnin, co-founder of Minervasoft.

Industry experts note that the modern IT sector forms a full-fledged culture of trust, which goes far beyond the simple use of software products.[2] We are talking about a complex phenomenon that includes faith in the potential of Russian software, confidence in the competencies of domestic engineers, as well as trusting relationships within development teams and between business partners, - adds Pavel Guralnik, CEO of ISPsystem.

If Western IT companies decide to return, this does not mean the automatic restoration of previous positions. Enough time has passed during which customers have adapted to new conditions: business processes have been rebuilt, new solutions have been implemented, employees have been trained, and rolling back will be fraught with costs and risks. Many no longer see the point in returning to old products, especially given the previous experience of sudden care. Even under equal conditions, confidence in foreign vendors will remain undermined, and companies will be very careful, - comments Arsen Blagov, General Director of the Lukomorye IT ecosystem (RTK IT Plus).

Thus, today the degree of trust and satisfaction with the quality of Russian IT solutions is characterized by sustainable and systemic growth, supported by an improvement in the technological base, a transparent and customer-oriented service, industry differentiation, as well as the formation of an ecosystem of competencies and standards.

Notes