Grain exports and imports in Russia

Grain crops (Russian market)

Main article: Grain crops (Russian market)

2023

Grain exports to EU countries exceeded the level before the conflict in Ukraine

Seed imports to Russia decreased by a third

Seed imports to the Russian Federation in 2023 decreased by almost a third. This was announced in March 2024 Interfax by "," referring to the message. Ministry of Agriculture Quantitative indicators in the message of the Ministry of Agriculture were not given.

We switch to domestic seeds gradually. This eliminates risks for production indicators in crop production. Interest in Russian developments has grown significantly, the ministry's Telegram channel says.

Seed imports in the Russian Federation in 2023 decreased by almost a third

The agency also noted an increase in the provision of seeds prepared for sowing in most sowing categories. So, as of March 2024, 99% of seeds of grain and leguminous crops, 53.9% of corn seeds, 51.3% of sunflower seeds and 48.2% of sugar beets were purchased. By the time of sowing, one hundred percent readiness is expected.

In February 2024, Russia introduced quotas for imports of seeds from unfriendly sans. For 2024, the quota is 33.1 thousand tons. The quota applies to crops such as potatoes, barley, corn, rapeseed, sunflower and beets. According to the ministry, quotas are carried out in order to accelerate import substitution in seed production.

Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that there are problems with the import of seeds, but they are not critical. Thus, the chairman of the council of the National Seed Alliance (NSA) Igor Lobach said that he monitors the presence of seeds and prices for them and so far does not observe problems with the presence. At the same time, he noted that domestic sunflower seeds have risen in price by 5-6% over the year, and corn seeds have decreased in price. Lobach calls problems with the presence of seeds "problems" of growth. According to his forecasts, next year Russian agriculture will cover 80-85% of the need for sunflower seeds.

You still need to replace the import. Imagine what can happen if we stop importing sugar beet seeds overnight - not only the country will be left without sugar, but also sugar factories will stand up, and it will be very costly to launch them after even a year or two of downtime. There was such an experience in 2009. Two years ago, such a scenario would have been possible, today the situation is half easier. Another two or three years and the situation will improve significantly - Lobach comments on the situation.[1]

China increased annual imports of Russian grain crops 3.7 times to $325 million

In 2023, grain crops worth $325 million were imported into China, which is 3.7 times more than a year earlier, when the figure was measured at $87.4 million. This is evidenced by the data of the State Customs Administration (GTU) of the PRC, which were published at the end of January 2024.

At the end of 2023, China increased purchases of wheat from the Russian Federation to $35 million (in 2022 - $2.7 million), barley - to $110.2 million (a year earlier - $18.1 million), corn - to $91.7 million (in 2022 - $29.7 million).

Grain crops worth $325 million were imported to China

In addition, in 2023, China sharply increased purchases of Russian soybeans, which belong to valuable leguminous, oilseed and technical crops. The import of these products amounted to a total of almost $741 million dollars in monetary terms against $378 million in 2022. In turn, the total cost of deliveries of rapeseed to Russia China during this time increased from $43 million to $210 million.

If earlier, after signing the first protocols on phytosanitary requirements with the authorized bodies of the People's Republic of China in 2015, the Russian Federation had the right to supply China with only wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and rapeseed from several regions of Siberia and the Far East, then in 2023 19 types of grain products are supplied (wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, rapeseed, oats, oats, buckwheat, buckwheat, flax seeds, wheat flour, sunflower, barley, soy, rapeseed, sunflower cake/meal, peas, peas and millet), most of which are allowed to be exported from all over Russia without regard to regionalization.

The main drivers of growth in the export of grain products to China in 2023 were rape, barley, flax seeds, zhmykhi, as well as the start of deliveries, including ship shipments from the ports of the Krasnodar Territory, peas.^[2]

Top 5 largest buyers of Russian grain named

In July-December 2023, Turkey purchased about 4.3 million tons of Russian grain from Russia, which is 12.7% less compared to the same period in 2022. At the same time, Turkey remained the largest importer of grain from the Russian Federation, according to data from the Union of Grain Exporters, published in January 2024.

According to Interfax, citing union materials, Iran took the second place in terms of purchases of Russian grain, receiving it in the amount of 3.9 million tons in July-December 2023, which is 4.9% more than a year ago. This rise was due to the increase in purchases of forage grain.

Egypt closed the top three in terms of imports of Russian grain, which in the second half of 2023 purchased it in the amount of 3.9 million tons. This is a quarter less than a year earlier. Following Egypt are Saudi Arabia, which increased purchases by 10.2%, to 2 million tons and Bangladesh, where 1.97 million were sent (this is almost 2.5 times more, in July-December 2022).

According to the results of the first half of the 2023-2024 season (from July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024), Egypt took the second position in the list of importers of Russian wheat, and Bangladesh in the third: it increased purchases 2.4 times, to 1.9 million tons. Algeria took the fourth line: wheat supplies there from the Russian Federation increased by 25.7%, to 1.4 million tons.

It is noted that Russia remains the leader in grain exports to Armenia. According to data for 2023, it accounted for 99.9% of the total supply to the Armenian market.

At the end of December 2023, the Russian government approved quotas for the export of Russian grain in 2024 for a total of 24 million tons compared to the 2023 level of 25.5 million tons. The Russian Union of Grain Exporters reported that the export of Russian grain from the beginning of the season to mid-December 2023 was at a record level - 30.8 million tons.^[3]

Agreement with China on the supply of 70 million tons of grain for $25 billion over 12 years

As part of the New Land Grain Corridor initiative, Russia and China in October 2023 signed the largest contract for the supply of grain in the amount of about $25.7 billion.

According to the concluded agreements, Russia will supply China with 70 million tons of grain cargo over 12 years.

Russia is increasing its share in world wheat exports at the expense of Ukraine

Russia strengthens control over global wheat supplies. According to the Ministry, in agriculture USA the season that begins July 1, 2023, Russia will be the source of every fifth cargo of exported wheat.

Turkey, Egypt and Iran are the largest grain buyers from Russia

Russia remains the world's largest exporter of wheat by a wide margin from competitors

Cargill and Louis Dreyfus Company announce the termination of grain exports from Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine

In March 2023, it became known that the Russian division of the American corporation Cargill will stop exporting grain from Russia from July 1, 2023, which is a step by a large Western grain trader aimed at leaving the country amid the conflict in Ukraine.

World traders continue to ship Russian grain. Viterra, Cargill and LDC are among the top 10 shippers this season.

Trader Louis Dreyfus Company will stop exporting grain from Russia from July 1, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation said in April 2023. The company is exploring the possibility of transferring Russian business and grain assets to new owners. The decision was made against the background of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The departure of Cargill and other Western wheat traders will benefit Russia and the country nothing to worry about. Despite the departure of leading Western traders, Russian grain and other crops will continue to enter world markets. Domestically, local traders will replace foreign ones. And outside it - where the power of Russian ports ends and the activities of ships flying a foreign flag begin - Western traders will continue to ship Russian grain.

Take-off of wheat exports twice at low prices

After a slow start to the season, Russian grain exports are booming at the end of February 2023. Export prices for Russian wheat are at their lowest level since August.

In January and February, shipments of wheat - the country's main crop - nearly doubled from last year, according to Logistic OS. Buyers shunned shipments at the start of the season when prices weren't as attractive, but they are now making a comeback as last year's huge crop helped make Russian grains one of the cheapest in the world.

Tens of millions of tons of grain in storage due to export difficulties

The record grain harvest of 2022 and the logistical difficulties associated with the sanctions led to the fact that in February 2023, excess grain unrealized by farmers accumulated in Russia. The storage facilities contain tens of millions of tons - we can talk about reserves worth 260 billion rubles, analysts at Yakov and Partners (formerly McKinsey) estimated. These stocks are at risk, usually associated with long-term storage and "eat up" a tangible part of the margin, analysts warn. To avoid risks, Russia, according to analysts, will need to export every month the volume of grain, close to a record, - more than 4 million tons.

2022

Flour export growth by 3.5 times

In 2022, Russia exported 881 thousand tons of wheat and wheat-rye flour, which is 3.5 times more than a year earlier. In monetary terms, the volume of supplies increased by 3.9 times, reported on January 9, 2023 at the Agroexport center under the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation.

Georgia became the largest importer of flour from the Russian Federation, which in 2022 increased purchases by 4.7 times - up to 202 thousand tons. Iraq is the second importer of Russian flour in 2022 (12-fold growth) - up to 158 thousand tons. Afghanistan imported 131 thousand tons of Russian flour, which is almost five times more than before.

Turkey was among the largest importers, having previously preferred to buy wheat from Russia and then process it independently, the Agroexport center notes. In 2022, 78 thousand tons of flour were shipped to Turkey against less than 1 thousand tons in 2021. In fifth place among buyers is Turkmenistan, which increased imports 4.5 times to 43 thousand tons.

For the first time, Russian flour was delivered to Egypt, Uganda, Senegal, and Sri Lanka. The leading regions in the export of wheat and wheat-rye flour in physical terms are the Republic of North Ossetia, Stavropol Territory and Moscow.

The growth in flour exports is directly related to the reduction in grain exports, namely wheat, explains Progress CEO Agro Leonid Ragozin.

Wheat flour is one of the basic food products in the world, characterized by consistently high demand. About 70% of the wheat produced is directed to food purposes, including flour production. The resulting flour is primarily used for the production of bakery and pasta products, and is also sold at retail to the population.

According to the Agroexport Center, markets of neighboring countries, where there is a steady demand for Russian products, and China, which was in 6th place in 2022, should be considered as key areas for further expansion of sales of Russian wheat flour.^[4]

Temporary ban on grain exports

March 14, 2022 The Russian government introduced a temporary ban on the export of sugar and grain. Russia will not export grain to the EAEU countries, and white sugar and raw cane sugar to third countries. Grain restrictions will be in effect until June 30, sugar until August 31, 2022. The grain ban applies to wheat, rye, barley and corn. The decision was made to protect the domestic food market in conditions of external restrictions.

Rise in wheat prices amid Russia's special operation in Ukraine

Wheat prices jumped to record levels.

Soaring prices will put pressure on government budgets and exacerbate the world's hunger problem. Prices reached levels last seen around 14 years ago during the global food price crisis and exceeded the highs that contributed to the Arab Spring a decade ago.

Meanwhile, American farmers are worried about drought and China is facing historically poor crop health. "The talk that China's wheat harvest is not very good is something new, and that supports prices," analysts say.

By March 14, 2022, a significant part of world wheat exports stopped due to the shutdown of the Black Sea ports (Odessa, Novorossiysk). Russian exports stood up.

Carriers do not want to send ships to the combat area. The benchmark price for wheat in the U.S. is up 72% from a year ago.

25 African countries import 1/3 of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine

According to UNCTAD, 25 African countries import more than 1/3 of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. For 15 countries, this share is more than half.

2021

Wheat exports from Russia grew by 8.5% to $8.88 billion

Exports of wheat and meslin (a mixture of wheat and rye) from Russia in 2021 decreased by 14.4% compared to 2020 and amounted to 32.92 million tons. Such data were published on February 7, 2022 by the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation.

If in physical terms the supply of Russian wheat abroad has significantly decreased, then in money they increased by 8.5% in 2021 compared to the result of a year ago and reached $8.88 billion.

According to the FCS, wheat imports to Russia amounted to 123.2 thousand tons, which is 35.2% less than a year earlier. In dollars, the import figure was $49.2 million. Barley imports for the year decreased by 87.3%, to 6.2 thousand tons.

According to the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, grain exports in 2020-2021 agricultural year (from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021) reached 49 million tons, wheat supplies - 37.6 million. The export potential for grain supplies in 2021-2022 agricultural year (from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022) is estimated at 45-48 million tons.

Sovekon director Andrei Sizov believes that in the short term, grain exports from the Russian Federation will be supported by the expectation of the introduction of a quota, the weakening of the ruble and the growth of the competitiveness of Russian wheat in world markets.

According to the calculations of the Rusagrotrans analytical center, made in the first half of the 2021-2022 agricultural year, the first place among the largest grain exporters was retained by the Rif TD, which supplied 5.31 million tons of grain. The second line was taken by Demeter Trading with 2.81 million tons. In third place is Aston, which shipped 2.29 million tons. The share of the ten largest grain exporters exceeded 72% against 64.5% a season earlier. The largest buyers of Russian grain included Turkey (5.78 million tons), Iran (5.09 million tons) and Egypt (3.42 million tons), according to Rusagrotrans^[5]

Share of wheat exports from Russia - 5% of the world market

Grain Export Leaders

2020

Russia is the leader in wheat exports with an indicator of 37.3 million tons

Grain exports from Russia grew by 20% to 57.5 million tons

The Rosselkhoznadzor estimated the volume of grain exports from Russia at 57.5 million tons at the end of 2020, which is 20% higher than a year ago. According to the ministry, the main export volume fell on wheat - 38.3 million tons, barley - 6.1 million tons, corn - 3.7 million tons, cake - 2.2 million tons, sunflower - 1.4 million tons.

Data from the Federal Customs Service (FCS) indicate that the volume of imports of grain crops to Russia in 2020 reached $327.6 million, an increase of 16.4%.

The FCS also calculated that barley imports to the Russian Federation for the year rose by 11%, to $7.5 million, and in quantitative terms - by 39.5%, to 48.7 tons. The import of corn into money amounted to $131.7 million (+ 21.7%), in physical terms - 51.3 thousand tons (+ 54.7%).

According to estimates, in FCS Russia January-December 2020, the export of wheat and meslin (a mixture of wheat and rye) increased by 20.9% compared to 2019, to 38.55 million tons. In dollars there was an increase of 28.2%, to $8.21 billion.

Imports of wheat and meslin in 2020 decreased by 0.9%, to 189.9 thousand tons. In value terms, imports increased by 33.3%, to $64.8 million.

According to the Rosselkhoznadzor, Russian grain in 2020 was supplied to 138 countries of the world, and the main buyers were Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan.

Turkey acted as a key importer and purchased about 11.3 million tons of grain products in 2020. This is the highest figure for the supply of grain to Turkey for the entire time of shipment of products from Russia.

Saudi Arabia purchased 3.2 million tons of grain crops from Russia, which is 2.5 times higher than last year. Mainly, the increase in exports was due to an increase in barley supplies. Grain exports to China exceeded 1.88 million tons for the year, which is 11% higher than in 2019.^[6]

2018

Russia is the world leader in wheat exports

Export plan for 50 million tons of grain

In March 2018, the president Russia Vladimir Putin said that the country had managed to achieve significant success in development. agriculture The head states expressed confidence that in the coming years Russia he will become one of the world leaders in the agro-industrial market.

According to estimates, in Ministry of Agriculture 2017-2018, Russia exports 50-52 million tons of grain, setting a new record. In 2016-2017, the export of grain from Russia amounted to a record 35.474 million tons.

The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Alexander Tkachev, said in February 2018 that this year an additional 10 billion to 30 billion rubles will be allocated for the development of the agro-industrial sector of Russia.

Notes