Overview of "Digitalization of Industry 2024"

The new sanctions USA came into force on September 12 and concern production enterprises. From January 1, 2025, state-owned companies are prohibited from using foreign software on significant objects belonging to them, CUES as well as IPS from unfriendly states. At the same time, in terms of key product classes for the industry, replacement of Western software is not expected on the horizon of several years.

How ready are businesses and IT companies for new challenges? How much did last year's expectations of market participants come true? About the difficult situation in the digitalization of industry - in the new TAdviser review.

Digitalization of industry is a broad concept covering the transformation of the entire industry using digital technologies. It includes the introduction of innovations such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, production automation, big data, integration of cyberphysical systems.

Examples of digitalization of industry are automated plants, the use of digital twins for modeling production processes, the integration of production management systems with corporate information systems.

Digitalization of business processes in industry is a narrower aspect, focused on optimizing processes within a particular enterprise using digital tools. For example, here we can talk about automating production planning processes, improving supply chain and warehouse logistics management, implementing ERP systems, and automating analytics.

By 2022, the industrial digitalization market was estimated at about 500 billion rubles - this estimate was given by Viktor Dozortsev, Dr. Techne. Sciences, Director of Business Development of the Center for Digital Technologies Rubytech.

According to our estimates, the volume of the Russian market for digitalization of industrial business processes in 2023 amounted to about 300 billion rubles, which demonstrates an increase of 20% compared to the previous period, - said Andrey Lukin, Director of Manufacturing Solutions Practice, Odyssey Consulting Group.

In 2023, the Russian market for digitalization of industry continued to grow in relation to 2022, which with various reservations is a consensus assessment of experts. There were several key drivers for segment development. First of all, experts talk about import substitution processes. Regulatory requirements and the need to implement information security tools are mentioned, especially with regard to critical information infrastructure.

Import substitution and increased demand for domestic products influenced the growth of production load, the need to expand and modernize them, including at defense industry enterprises. The market was also influenced by the following factors: the need to complete investment projects launched in previous years, subsidies and subsidies for the modernization of production and the production of new products, targeted financing of IT projects through industrial centers of competence (ICC) in industries.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, industrial production at the end of 2023 increased by + 3.5% y/y, and by + 4.2% to the level of two years ago. The growth of industry has also spurred demand for digitalization solutions.

Many enterprises objectively received new opportunities to increase their business, sales growth, logistics, and these challenges are almost impossible to answer without digitalization and growth of the IT infrastructure. Accordingly, the demand for local digital business solutions has grown significantly. Companies began to update software and IT infrastructure, and vendors began to refine and adapt their solutions to business needs.

{{quote 'author=Denis Prozorov, Director of Infrastructure Systems Department, HOST Group comments. | You can record a surge in updating the fleet of IT equipment in the field of heavy and defense industries. Enterprises are expanding their industrial capacities, respectively, and the IT infrastructure too. Customers focus on maintaining their IT infrastructure.}}

The industry is experiencing a shortage of personnel, so any automation and robotization projects in 2023 were in great demand. In addition, the ability to produce more products at the same capacity using smart production management solutions has made process optimization tools increasingly popular.

Russian companies have directed efforts to develop automation and production control systems, the introduction of Internet of Things technologies, platforms for controlling and monitoring human resources and technological processes of industrial enterprises. The market showed significant growth in terms of solutions for the design, management of product development and preparation, as well as applications for engineering analysis.

Customers began to demand from domestic vendors not just analogues of foreign solutions, but full-fledged industry digital platforms that would combine different products for design and production management.

Many companies began to move towards the transition to engineering software from Russian manufacturers, or formed plans for the transition. As a result, the need for qualified engineering and production personnel was growing, so many educational institutions are now showing great interest in modern IT solutions for industry.

At the same time, many companies in the industry still retain imported equipment, the depreciation period of which has not yet passed, but manufacturers have already left the Russian market and do not support software and equipment.

As Dmitry Vasiliev, senior partner of the Digital Economy League, said, in 2023, all industries were active in the investment plan, but the average share of investments in intangible assets differed by industry.

More than 15% of the total investments in software and IT only in pharmaceuticals, food and metallurgical industries have been invested, and enterprises producing rubber and plastic products have come close to this level.

Other industries have not increased the share of funds allocated to IT compared to previous periods. In 2023, the investments of enterprises in the processing industries were actively increasing, but the share of IT costs was at the level of 10%. The demand for software licenses, equipment and services was high. Another trend was gaining momentum - updating the IT landscape in production at the level of accounting solutions.

Denis Saltykov, business architect of the 1C department of KORUS Consulting Group, cited as an example the situation with 1C: Manufacturing Enterprise Management system, which is widely used in industry and will be withdrawn from support in 2027. According to the expert, there are two full years left to switch to "1C:ERP Enterprise Management" or "1C:ERP Holding Management."

If in 2022 everyone was spending time hoping to wait out the short-term negative trend, then 2023 was the year of solutions, design and research. Taking into account the long cycles of implementation of IT projects for replacing software and equipment, many enterprises in 2023 were at the beginning of the journey. In turn, 2024 was the year of practical work and implementation.

For example, in the mining industry until February 2022, the volume of the Russian IT market was estimated at about 10 billion rubles. But since the active start of the import substitution process, it has increased by a multiple. And already in 2024, market participants moved from assessments and plans to an active phase and investments.

Investment in digitalization

In 2024, the Russian industry continued to operate in the "saving" mode of the established database of digital solutions of world vendors and priority provision of industrial and information security of production.

The main efforts of market participants are aimed at ensuring sustainable operation of enterprises, protecting personnel data, technological assets and digital infrastructure. According to Viktor Dozortsev, these articles account for at least half of all digitalization costs.

In 2024, the Russian market for digitalization of industry continues to develop in the context of import substitution and increased attention to new technologies. The pace of digitalization remains high, especially in large industrial segments, - said Marat Tyapkaev, head of mobile development at IT company SimbirSoft.

According to the expert, the market volume continues to increase, as in 2023. Moreover, the segments of robotization, IoT, cloud technologies and cybersecurity are especially growing.

Demand for digital solutions for industry in procurement and logistics is higher than ever, said Daria Larionova, director of digital technologies at Isource. As TAdviser found out, many experts note that in the supply chain management segment, the task of integrating and compatibility of new software with other enterprise management systems (ERP, CRM, etc.) has come to the fore.

Alexander Taskaev, Director of the Department of Intelligent Automation Systems at SATEL, said that a significant part of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in Russia retains and even continues to increase investments in digitalization and technological development. The highest intensity of investment processes was recorded in the mining industries, such as the production of metal ores (38% of organizations increased investments in technologies), coal mining (30%), oil and gas production (29%), as well as the provision of related services in the field of mining (29%). In the manufacturing sector, there was a significant increase in investment activity in coke and petroleum products (30%), electrical equipment (27%), chemical products (23%), machinery and equipment (21%), as well as in the metallurgical industry (19%). Among the main tasks facing the industrial industry are: automation of key production processes, improving efficiency and labor safety, timely identification of potential threats and prevention of emergencies.

Dmitry Vasiliev shared his observation: this year only individual companies decided to start projects to replace a well-functioning, deeply implemented imported IT system with a domestic analogue. Most enterprises are still waiting and do not take action. With the exception of KII facilities: here companies are forced to actively implement projects to equip Russian software and equipment from 2023. The specialist stressed that most industrial enterprises are now behaving based on the main goal of preserving and providing the level, those services that have already been created earlier.

According to the expert, only units of enterprises and units of industries invest in IT and digitalization, based on the goals and strategy of business development and production growth. Such companies are in the metallurgy, chemical and processing industries. The pharmaceutical industry is closely connected with IT, since in this area information systems are part of the main business, and not a related service. Production development strategies, including digitalization, are implemented in the food industry and retail.

There are leaders, but this is not the "main front" in the IT market in industry, he summed up.

Denis Prozorov said that, judging by the dynamics of interactions with customers, the most striking trend is the desire of companies for technological sovereignty, the maximum reduction in dependence on foreign suppliers, to systematically replace software with domestic solutions.

This applies to a wide range of systems, such as ERP, MES, CAD. If we talk about domestic products, then they are, but so far they are still at the stage of aspiration to be as functional as foreign ones, the expert said.

Maxim Melsitov, Director for Development and Implementation of Jet Infosystems Software, also noted a surge in interest in MES class systems for managing production processes in 2024.

A notable trend was called the replacement of solutions of the MES Yury Lavrov class, director of business development in industry at Tibbo Systems. According to him, there is now an active phase of selection and testing of MES and various other production systems above the SCADA level. At the same time, the expert noted that the phase of choosing solutions of the SCADA/BMS class has passed: most system integrators and customers have already been able to decide on the choice of a domestic solution.

'Perfect storm'

Bogdan Klyuchnikov, Deputy General Director for Key Customers of Top Systems, called the current state of affairs on the market an "ideal storm." The loss of access to many foreign technologies, including IT solutions for industry, forces enterprises to very quickly switch to domestic applications and re-implement what worked. The transfer of all components of the IT infrastructure to domestic developments directly affects application developers, as it is necessary to ensure their work in the new IT environment.

We can say that we are in a situation of an ideal storm, - said Bogdan Klyuchnikov.

By examining the business processes of customers on projects, despite the presence of basic tools in large companies, Top Systems meet a situation where different systems are not integrated with each other, and data can be stored but not used. In addition, solutions from "boxes" do not cover all business needs and need customizations of various scales. All this slows down the processes of digitalization.

Of the positive, the expert noted the fact that this year many have more awareness and composure in actions to make forced but useful changes in life. And as key tasks, he highlighted the training of specialists to work with Russian solutions and systems. Ideally, a four-way format of interaction "developer - school - university - enterprise" could be formed for this in the future.

Personnel, competencies and automation

As a year earlier, the issue of personnel and competencies in the market is acute: there is a luring of employees, the cooperation of companies with universities is deepening.

Of course, there is a shortage of specialists at the middle level and above, which slows down the development of the industry, since it is necessary to prepare personnel, starting from the university and even school bench, - Marat Tyapkaev shared his vision.

Despite the need for a complete transition to domestic solutions by 2025, enterprises face a shortage of mature solutions and qualified personnel, as many experts say.

The personnel issue is relevant not only for IT companies, but also for industrialists. Thus, Dmitry Karamyshev noted that the trend of developments in the field of robotics and remote-controlled equipment is associated with a lack of linear personnel, enterprises plan to automate the most difficult and routine operations and retrain employees to other, more intelligent areas, for example, to operators of robotic systems.

The shortage of personnel creates an increased demand for all projects related to automation and robotization, says Maxim Melsitov.

As Alexander Taskaev, Director of the Department of Intelligent Automation Systems of SATEL, said, the high pace of digitalization creates a request to increase the competencies of employees of industrial enterprises. Modern technologies require workers not just computer skills, but also a slightly deeper understanding of the principles of the Internet of Things, WEB 3.0 technology and artificial intelligence. Thus, many Russian IT companies conduct their own educational courses for customers and partners, providing them with the necessary theoretical and practical knowledge.

Optimization against the background of a key rate increase

In addition to the continuing trends of 2023 this year, one can note the strengthening of another factor that encourages business to make changes to the IT landscapes, said Denis Saltykov. These are optimization projects for various business functions. Moreover, the key incentive factor in this case is the cost of money. Due to the high refinancing rate, the value of all financial instruments has increased significantly, and many companies, in order not to resort to loans, are looking for funds to develop or support operating activities in an attempt to improve their own operating efficiency. Hence, a request for various solutions in the field of supply chain optimization (SCO), optimization of stocks of products, raw materials and materials, optimization of production resources (APS). This is a difficult path, requiring, in addition to high-tech solutions, deep methodological study.

Revision or adaptation of the existing business model and IT structure, new digital solutions require the task of increasing operational efficiency in the context of rising prices for materials and logistics, increasing production volumes and expanding the range of products (due to the withdrawal of foreign manufacturers from the market), restructuring the structure of supply chains to bypass sanctions measures.

According to Denis Saltykov, the efforts of enterprises within the framework of digital transformation are aimed at solving point business problems that give a quick result.

Some companies have in the first place the tasks of managing the reliability of production equipment and solutions based on MR. It is important for someone to build a more effective system for managing stocks of raw materials or finished products. Others plan to implement a shop-level production optimization planning system to enable faster customer order execution.

Storage costs are "dramatically reduced"

According to Maxim Melsitov, all large enterprises are now going through different stages of digital transformation, many are working on the concept of an IT strategy together with companies providing consulting and IT audit services. The largest enterprises are at the forefront, testing technologies and opening proven paths for smaller enterprises.

Large industrial holdings in Russia by 2024 already have a fairly high level of digitalization, as evidenced by the presence of special IT departments and data management departments, the necessary infrastructure, Iot devices that allow you to collect a large amount of data, data storage, practice and deep analytics tools. This is especially true for the fuel and energy complex, metallurgical and mining industries, and the agricultural industry.

Vendors and integrators, supplying and implementing innovative solutions, improve them with each subsequent project. The experience gained allows you to understand the terms and conditions for the payback of implementations.

At the same time, the cost of storing data is dramatically reduced, - said the expert.

By reducing the cost of data storage and processing, the accumulated experience in this area makes all projects related to the extraction of benefits from data increasingly profitable.

All this makes new technologies more accessible to medium-sized businesses, which get a chance to also participate in the technology race and catch up with big business in development over the next 5 years.

AI priorities

Many experts note the impact on the digitalization of the industry of the class of AI technologies (machine learning, predictive analytics of the state of technological processes and equipment, video analytics). Machine Learning, IoT, AI promise high value-added growth potential and wide application variability.

Industrial companies have begun to digitize many processes and collect big data, and the use of large language models (LLMs) is gaining popularity to solve routine tasks and directly implement technological processes.

However, the development of these areas, which directly increase production efficiency, temporarily faded into the background. For example, the introduction of machine learning-based services remains targeted. Through the use of this technology, companies are striving to reduce the number of specialists employed in certain processes, get more profit, and reduce risks.

The fastest are mastered with AI in the industries of metallurgy, oil and gas production and processing, gas and oil engineering, and power.

So far, the use of AI is slightly lower compared to global indicators. However, in the future it is planned that by 2030, with the help of an increase in the use of AI, it will be possible to increase Russia's GDP by 1-2%, - said Alexander Taskaev.

According to the expert, the development and implementation of AI, predictive analytics (automated collection and analysis of data in order to prepare forecasts), machine learning, geotechnical monitoring, digital twins, as well as intelligent process control systems are among the key areas of development of domestic solutions.

End-to-end information security motif

Digitalization carries various risks, primarily related to information security, reliability of functioning and manageability of the infrastructure built at enterprises. The increase in cyber attacks on Russian enterprises creates conditions in which it is critical to have a strong information security structure.

In the context of the growth of cyber attacks (especially DDoS attacks), ensuring the security of industrial facilities came to the fore, - said Marat Tyapkaev.

According to the expert, the shift in focus on cybersecurity has become an important trend in 2024.

In the information security segment, there was a radical rethinking of the design solutions required at all stages of the implementation of IT projects in industry: from the construction of new facilities to commissioning, or the operation of existing ones.

The software used, hardware and PA-complexes - all this is done taking into account the extremely strict requirements of the legislation in terms of information security and in the context of real attacks on the technological infrastructure.

According to Alexander Goltsov, General Director of AMT GROUP, one of the main established factors, which is clearly traced along with a clear trend for import substitution: all modern design solutions are supplemented or have already been supplemented with information security sections, and in many cases it is the factors of information security that influence the entire list of information and technical means used.

The flip side of activity in replacement projects at CII facilities is the accompanying growth of bureaucratic red tape. This was told by Vladimir Molodykh, Product Director, Digital Group Zyfra.

The projects are overgrown with additional bureaucracy, requirements, approvals, of which there were many in industry earlier, the expert complained.

Of particular relevance, according to Vladimir Molodykh, are cloud solutions for industry. Previously, the industry was wary of "clouds," but now there are safe products, including CII clouds: this direction is becoming more economically feasible, allowing for higher TTM and lower TCO.

Import substitution processes in the field of digitalization of industrial enterprises have actively begun since 2014. For many companies, this has become an important and relevant topic, especially in the context of global changes and sanctions pressure. Since 2022, interest in domestic IT solutions has grown rapidly.

Estimates of the level of import independence achieved for 2024 in the industry vary greatly. At the same time, only about 50% of experts who agreed to the interview commented on this issue, or gave a different expert opinion. The collected array of estimates can be divided into 3 groups.

"Pessimistic"

According to Alexander Goltsov, the industrial sector of the economy was very dependent on imported solutions, primarily on systems of classes APCS, SCADA/MES. Here, it was difficult for domestic developers to compete with world leaders such as Siemens, Rockwell Automation, Honeywell, Yokogawa and others.

Gradually, the situation is improving, but one should not wait for one hundred percent import substitution in this area in the coming years, "he said.

According to Bogdan Klyuchnikov, two criteria can be considered to assess the progress of import substitution of digital technologies in industry. The first is the percentage of coverage (support) of companies' processes with domestic IT solutions. The second is the degree of use of domestic IT solutions by companies in industrial mode.

Unfortunately, the facts are that foreign players in the IT solutions market for industry have taken and are still holding most of it, the expert complained.

On many aspects, enterprises can formulate needs, looking back at how this or that functionality worked in foreign solutions. This should give the development process some acceleration. But there is also a new factor - industry should grow very quickly, which means IT solution providers need to develop methods and technologies ahead of the curve, which means finding and implementing innovative ideas.

In addition, notes Bogdan Klyuchnikov, putting any solutions into commercial operation usually takes a significant time, and domestic companies need to start work on their testing, adaptation and implementation as soon as possible, despite the fact that the degree of readiness may not be very high.

"Optimistic"

Maxim Egorov, Operations Director of Softline Digital (Softline Group of Companies), cited an assessment by the Higher School of Economics, according to which in 2023 36% Russian industrial enterprises increased the share of domestic equipment, components, raw materials or technologies compared to the previous year. In 2022, 65% of production depended on imported equipment, in 2023 their number decreased to 43%. Dependence on foreign components decreased from 48% to 34%, on technologies - from 25% to 14%.

Judging by the results of the demodnias of the ICC, by the end of 2024 - the beginning of 2025, the first developments will be available for testing by industrial enterprises. Their readiness for the spring of 2024 can be estimated as more than 50%, - Dmitry Karamyshev shared.

According to the expert, if the dynamics continues, then foreign software will be replaced by Russian software quickly enough.

Alexander Taskaev noted positive changes in the segments where successful development was traditionally carried out. These are operating systems, office packages, database management systems (), DBMS and enterprise resource planning systems (). ERP He recalled that according to the plan for import substitution of software, published in August 2023, by the end of 2024, the share at domestic software the facilities should CUES reach 100%. This requirement is relevant for the mining metallurgical, rocket and space and other industries. At the same time, since 2022, the demand for Russian software solutions has grown 12 times, and the main sectors of the manufacturing industry have already reached the level of almost 50%.

The percentage of solutions in the digitalization market of industry and only in the field of software, and this is part of import substitution, is approximately 60-70%. There is much more in the field of information modeling, - stated Mikhail Bocharov.

"Realistic"

Viktor Dozortsev believes that the share of systems requiring operational replacement in different areas of digitalization and in different industrial industries varies significantly. Taking into account the different scale of systems, the "average" share of replaceable solutions throughout the industry does not reflect an objective picture. For many important digital solutions, dependence on sanctions products is very significant, and for some - almost absolute. For example, for APCS and high-tech production planning systems, high-precision modeling and advanced TC control. The expert noted: it is very important that import substitution does not turn into a conveyor for the production of "generics," but leads to the emergence of innovative systems that have a clear prospect of long-term development and reflect the specifics of the Russian industry.

According to Dmitry Vasiliev, Russian products are successfully implemented by many in terms of enterprise management functions. We are talking about document management systems, accounting and personnel accounting, HR, financial systems, even domestic ERP. Domestic systems are also introduced for many accompanying the main production of processes: maintenance and repair, logistics and control of materials and operations in production, laboratory studies of raw materials and finished products, etc. In this part, customers in industry do not lag behind other companies. Due to such systems and projects, the indicator of the use of domestic IT systems has exceeded far over 50% and is striving higher and higher. Among industrial enterprises in various industries there are state-owned enterprises and private ones. In some industries, such as mechanical engineering, aircraft engineering, shipbuilding, the share of state-owned enterprises is significant. In other areas, this share is not so large and the majority are commercial companies. Due to private industrial industries that do not have standards from the state, the total percentage of import substitution is reduced.

On average, all industries, taking into account both public and private enterprises, by 2024 reach at best about 70% of the use of domestic software - such a cautious assessment of Dmitry Vasiliev is still quite optimistic. However, according to him, this quantitative methodology does not take into account the situation with particularly significant software for industrial production, we are talking about systems of classes PLM, CAD, PDM, CAM, MES, CAE.

Denis Saltykov expressed a similar opinion. According to him, since 2022, the percentage of Russian IT solutions used in industry has definitely increased, which can be seen in project practice and in the development of domestic software. Import substitutes software not only state-owned companies, but also the commercial sector. First of all, these are IT solutions with high business criticality, such as ERP-class systems: for the last two years, enterprises have been actively switching to the 1C platform and other products.

Therefore, in general, it can be argued that the wave of import substitution in the ERP sphere is successful. A more difficult situation is developing with narrow-profile solutions closely related to technological equipment - ACS TP-, MES-level, the expert said.

He said that the industrial sector is looking for an alternative to departed products, and at the moment work is underway to develop and test solutions in this area.

According to Andrei Lukin, the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of import substitution include the degree of localization of solutions, their integration into existing business processes and the level of support from Russian developers.

Шаблон:Quote 'According to our estimates, the share of domestic IT solutions in industry has increased to 40% by 2024, he said.

Import substitution has become a condition for the survival of industry, while, like the process, it gets all kinds of difficulties.

Not all solution classes can be replaced

Together with the restriction of access to international technologies, the ecosystem was destroyed, which provided manufacturing companies with final solutions. Imported products deeply embedded in production processes, complex systems with calculations, systems for designing and modeling products - all this and much more was under attack.

A lot depends on the class of solution. Andrey Lukin said that it is still difficult to replace supply chain management systems and specialized ERP systems. Alexander Taskaev shared his observation that some enterprises are forced to develop their own software, for example, production operations management systems (MES).

There are important areas where technological sovereignty has not yet been achieved. For example, the creation of 5G generation networks, including the development of domestic base stations, warned Nikolay Kulikov.

Bogdan Klyuchnikov said that there are significant gaps in replacing digital tools for planning and developing production processes, applications for optimizing production processes, flows and schedules, tools for planning and forecasting demand and supplies. There are also areas that have yet to be adapted by production companies: IT solutions already exist or are at the exit of implementation, but practical application in these areas was limited or there was none at all. We are talking about such solutions: systems engineering tools, applications for managing product configurations and changes in fully digital form, tools for developing and preparing the production of components from polymer composite materials, applications for designing and optimizing the production of parts using additive technologies.

Dmitry Vasiliev identified a serious gap. PLM, CAD, PDM, CAM, MES, CAE software that is specific and significant for industrial production is largely based on two "whales": the electronic product model (CAD, computer-aided design tool) and the product structure (PDM, product engineering data management tool).

The design of complex modern products requires a graphical core in the domestic CAD that allows you to model complex surfaces and structures consisting of thousands and hundreds of thousands of parts in one product.

At this time, there is no such core in Russia. Work on its creation has been carried out by individual teams over the past 5-7 years. According to experts, designers from these industries, it will take the same amount of time and significant investments in creating a geometric core for CAD, "Dmitry Vasiliev warned.

Experts believe that it is advisable to unite the efforts of different companies and attract state investments to solve this problem and achieve real import substitution in industry. Without this, the production of complex products (vehicles, aircraft, ships, engines and turbines, etc.) will be tied to imported CAD- and PLM systems. At the same time, today a methodology is used that gives a high percentage even in the absence of Russian solutions of this category when calculating the percentage of import substitution of software in industry.

According to Viktor Dozortsev, the problem of replacing APCS in the coming years is not yet very acute, but there are no noticeable successes in this class yet. And in the medium term, a Russian decision will become vital.

Dmitry Vasiliev noted that the issue of equipment, controllers for APCS and SCADA systems, which complete their service life and need to be changed, is very acute. Some enterprises used a Western monitoring service for such devices in order to ensure their operability.

Important areas are automation of production processes, the introduction of enterprise management systems (ERP, SCADA, OverSCADA), Internet of Things (IoT/) technologies IIoT , as well as telecommunications systems (unified communications, telephony and), AEROSPACE FORCES - said Nikolay Kulikov.

Igor Zeldets said that so far he has not reached the required level of efficiency and reliability of domestic engineering software (CAD, CAM, CAE), specialized software, APCS.

Dmitry Karamyshev said that it will be extremely difficult to replace distributed control systems (DCS) of APCS for complex technological processes, there are no solutions for strict modeling on the market. These are special software tools that allow you to simulate physicochemical processes (previously they were closed by ASPEN Plus software, ASPEN Hysys).

According to Mikhail Ponomarenko, head of production solutions at ASCON, Western software is so ingrained in industry, in high-tech industries, has overgrown with so many integrations, applications, settings that its simultaneous removal can stop the production of products that were developed in this software. Therefore, it is not uncommon for a Russian system to be used next to the old foreign system in parallel, which is able to work well with imported foreign data.

Integration is established at the system levels: CAD - CAD, CAD - PLM, MDM - MDM, PLM - PLM, etc. And this situation will last for about 10 years, the expert suggested.

Moreover, in import substitution projects, specialists have to take into account the entire life cycle of the product. For example, when switching to a domestic CAD system in the design preparation of production, it is necessary to assess whether the developed 3D models can be used in production, in particular, to transfer data to the CAM system, where a part processing program is formed on a CNC machine.

Import substitution takes up a lot of resources

Replacing critical equipment is extremely costly. Customers need to allocate resources to address the high cost of IT products and lack of funding. The cost of switching to Russian software includes implementation costs and licenses.

A lot of money is required to rebuild the infrastructure. It is necessary to train personnel, increase competencies in domestic product lines. This transition is constrained by the insufficient filling of the domestic infrastructure solutions market with niche applications, "said Dmitry Slobodenyuk, Commercial Director of ARinteg.

Due to the fact that the development time, and most importantly, bringing to serial production, is quite long, significant investments are required, both from customers and from manufacturers. We are talking not only about money, but also about temporary and human resources that will be involved for several years, - Nikolai Kulikov shared.

An increase in supply chains leads to an increase in prices for IT equipment, - said Marat Tyapkaev. - This, in turn, leads to an increase in project budgets.

Compatibility issues

Maxim Melsitov shared his expertise: earlier digitalization was made a "patchwork" method, introducing information systems and individual services on different fragments of business processes. This paid off and allowed without global investment to increase the degree of automation, digital literacy of personnel and, in general, the level of business and income. But over time, the reverse side of this approach also manifested itself: incompatibility of systems, disparate sources of data not combined into one system, inconsistency of actions of key employees, lack of a unified reporting system, difficulties in obtaining data for analytics.

Integrators have the following difficulties: lack of ecosystems and compatibility, ON problems of integration with existing software, maintenance of implemented solutions.

Daria Larionova spoke about the trend associated with the transition from simple implementation of IT solutions to a full-fledged digital transformation of the business: the volume of data is growing significantly, and it is necessary to increase the performance of the hardware complex, there is a need to combine software into a single digital circuit so that processes within functions are seamless.

Domestic boxed solutions at the moment do not have a long background, there are questions about the technological stack, methods of code production. This opinion was shared by Denis Prozorov.

A separate story is the integration of solutions among themselves and their further support, the quality of technical support for domestic vendors, - said the expert. - Customers have a lot of questions about the compatibility of domestic developments with foreign ones.

This problem is serious: replacing not individual solutions, but ensuring the operability of the entire fleet of IT systems on new import-independent platforms. How will heavy industrial software work on Russian operating systems and DBMS, processors, video cards? It can be solved through a mass launch at test sites in order to work out all possible inconsistencies on them. There are such projects, but so far there are only a few of them. The mass launch of "pilots" requires specialists with the necessary qualifications to be with both IT integrators and IT services of enterprises.

As Dmitry Slobodenyuk said, the issue of replacing the infrastructure with the transition to domestic solutions remains quite difficult: it is necessary to use Russian operating systems on workstations and for servers, a domestic virtualization system and a domain controller.

In this regard, the services of system integrators turned out to be in demand, which will help you find the optimal solution, choose the most suitable domestic operating system for the company, "the expert explained. - They will prepare a specification that will indicate the necessary software products and help perform the migration, give their recommendations.

As Denis Saltykov said, difficulties may arise in the formation of a functional volume, which must be transferred from the old system to the new one.

Domestic and Western products may differ in terms of functional equipment, performance and scalability. In addition, IT solutions used in enterprises are almost always modified to meet the peculiarities of local business processes. This specificity must be transferred to the domestic platform in order to provide the same level of service. Sometimes a strong examination is required to bring the platform to the required level.

Alexander Taskaev also noted some of the difficulties that arise when switching to domestic IT solutions, despite the active pace of digital transformation of enterprises. For example, there is friction in compatibility and integration with current systems in manufacturing.

To speed up the process, standardization of APIs and protocols is required to interact with existing programs, the expert said.

Mikhail Bocharov commented on the situation with information modeling technologies, for which clear gradation and classification by individual technologies are extremely necessary. As an example, he cited segmentation created for artificial intelligence technologies within the framework of GOST R 59277-2020. According to the expert, the same work in the TIM segment should be carried out as soon as possible in order to avoid the destructive impact of the outdated OpenBIM concept on the development of domestic digital construction. According to him, the positive side effect of the introduction of the new classification should be to reduce duplicate solutions in the TIM, in addition, consumers will be able to choose the necessary technologies without reference to the existing platform, which should improve the quality and reduce the cost of software.

Indecision reigns in the commercial sector

It is difficult for commercial enterprises to make a decision to start investing in software replacement, they continue to use the products of companies that have left the market at their own peril and risk. The fact is that it was still possible to provide technical support for foreign systems, since IT partners of the corresponding profile remained on the market. With certain investments, you can even develop this or that import solution. Nevertheless, the risk of completely losing the system remains, since it is not known what other sanctions or legislative restrictions may arise. Now it is difficult to assess this prospect and understand where the point of no return is, and therefore it is not easy for enterprises to decide on a transition.

It happens that it is not easy for business users to rebuild due to the difference in the paradigm of systems. Often this problem is felt by financial services, which are accustomed to the way accounting functions are arranged in Western products.

Businesses are not flexible enough

For some domestic enterprises, the process of import substitution in the field of digitalization of key production processes is not proceeding quickly. They are constrained by conservatism and unwillingness to change, the complex structure of production processes. Sometimes staff show insufficient agility when switching to new products.

It happens that it is not easy for business users to rebuild due to the difference in the paradigm of systems. Often this problem is felt by financial services, which are accustomed to the way accounting functions are arranged in Western products.

Also, individual companies show insufficient flexibility, which avoid open exchange of knowledge, do not want to cooperate with others. However, the issue of mutual trust between Russian companies is not acute.

Most import substitution cases are somewhere in between a boxed solution and custom development.

"Box" in its pure form in industry hardly anyone uses, since it is too complex and specific sphere with a wide variety of industry features, - Denis Saltykov shared. - On the other hand, no one creates complex full-featured systems from scratch.

The level and type of customization already depends on the class of systems. For example, if CPM solutions involve working with various calculated settings, then in the case of ERP, as a rule, large functionality improvements are needed.

Dmitry Karamyshev noted that there are two different approaches, and the choice of solution depends on the size and capabilities of the enterprise.

Market leaders with captive IT companies internally prefer their own development or significant refinement of solutions for their needs, the rest of the companies use boxed solutions with understandable customization for their own processes, the expert noted.

Dmitry Vasiliev shared a similar observation: industrial enterprises mainly use ready-made solutions, finalizing them for their own specifics. Boxed solutions are introduced for typical business tasks. And only the largest industrial corporations buy custom development or a significant amount of refinement of ready-made solutions.

As Maxim Egorov said, companies acquire both ready-made platform solutions and complex custom development. Most often, this is a combined option: the base platform is chosen, on which all services will be deployed and scaled in the future. This allows you to unify your infrastructure, simplify its maintenance, and significantly reduce development costs. Further, both ready-made "box" services and complex solutions developed for a specific client task can be connected to this platform in several stages.

The variability of products and solutions in the industry is very high. If there is a decent boxed product, we buy, use, we can modify it under the customer, - said Denis Prozorov. - Large enterprises are often asked to make a separate version of the solution, taking into account their specifics.

The most popular are boxed solutions, which are being finalized for the needs of specific enterprises. Joint development is also in demand to create unique solutions, - said Andrey Lukin.

Daria Larionova said that autonomous boxed software is often used to automate the logistics and supply functions of the enterprise. Sometimes large industrial companies prefer not to buy ready-made solutions, but to develop their own. This is due to the fact that "boxes" are often not suitable for information security requirements and procurement methodology. In this case, it turns out to be cheaper to develop your own product than to customize the finished one.

However, this is not the most common scenario: approximately 90% of companies still make solutions based on boxed analogues, the remaining 10% develop their own, she said. - Of these 10%, only 20-30% bring their products to market.

According to Bogdan Klyuchnikov, the approach to using solutions depends not only on the size of the business, but also on the tasks of the company, in some cases the boxed solution completely closes the need, others require specific refinement. Most often, companies use the basic capabilities of applications and only where the process requires it, the system is configured or refined.

Boxed solutions are often selected for standard business processes such as manufacturing management, ERP systems, and CRM. This is being introduced faster and cheaper at the start, - said Marat Tyapkaev. - Custom development is selected when specific business logic is required, unique processes that cannot be automated with ready-made solutions.

According to the expert, the refinement of ready-made solutions is the most common phenomenon, especially in production companies. It allows you to improve the existing infrastructure, adapting it to the changing needs of the enterprise. And joint development is popular among those companies that want to innovate, but are not ready to fully take responsibility for all development.

After problems with foreign suppliers, some companies fear dependence on box solution developers. They are afraid that they may leave the market or overestimate prices. Such information was shared by Vladimir Molodykh. In this regard, Digital uses joint development, InnerSource, shared code ownership and other formats.

Friendly Country Solutions

Among experts, there is no consensus on the relevance of products from China, India and other countries. According to some sources, they are actively being introduced, according to others, they do not have a large enough share.

The products of friendly countries (China, India) are generally inferior in functionality to Western developments, so so far they are not so interesting to Russian enterprises, says Viktor Dozortsev.

The solutions of friendly countries are widely used, especially when they are supplied with equipment and are immediately designed for the production process or are included in the supply of main production equipment, - said Dmitry Vasiliev.

In 2024, market participants were "driven" by various factors. Overcoming obstacles and striving to meet new standards were key. In this situation, the search for new ways of advanced development is still difficult. The cross-cutting motive is the topic of information security. This is one of the basic needs, without the closure of which it is difficult to imagine a further increase in creativity. Factors are also important: the influence of the state, standardization, the activities of industrial competence centers that contribute to the coordination of import substitution work. In parallel with this, the need for businesses to scale, and therefore digitalization, is growing. A separate touch: until now, some industrial enterprises operate on extremely outdated equipment, and the five-year plan may not be enough to rebuild their infrastructure. IT companies independently decide to cooperate in various formats, thereby improving their position in the market.

Proactive development is not a priority

Enterprises that implement proactive development strategies and search for new ways and innovations exist and operate, but they do not constitute a significant share of the IT market in industry. This assessment was given by Dmitry Vasiliev.

The expert sees several reasons for this situation. Firstly, the growth of industrial production in Russia began, investments in development increased, but "in the long run," according to the program for 5-7 years, the enterprises themselves are not ready to invest. Secondly, the high rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not contribute to investing in industry. Thirdly, most enterprises first of all solve the issues of the backlog accumulated over decades in the main means of production, machines and equipment, the state of buildings and structures, and only in the balance spend on IT.

Maxim Melsitov said that there are also very lagging enterprises where it is impossible to build infrastructure. A complete restructuring of the production funds of such companies, subject to investment, can take from 5 to 10 years. And large factories still use equipment that was manufactured in the "pre-digital" era. It is difficult to install the cameras and sensors needed to collect and further analyze the data. At the same time, the demand for Russian-made products is growing, especially in the metallurgical and mining industries, mechanical engineering and the agricultural industry, which provides a stream of investments in digitalization.

According to Dmitry Karamyshev, all leading mining enterprises, without exception, are working on the task within the ICC to issue working versions of products by 2025.

The timing is very tight, the market is on the path of direct replacement of foreign products without global innovation, "he said.

Overcoming as a background

As Viktor Dozortsev said, today on the agenda is overcoming obstacles caused by objective factors: the complexity and complexity of developing and implementing key digital solutions, personnel hunger, and a sharp complication of the supply of specialized equipment.

It is obvious to the expert: "patching holes" in terms of missing functionality will not lead to the solution of the key task today - to ensure sustainable operation of enterprises in conditions of strict sanctions restrictions.

Alexander Goltsov noted that it is difficult to choose one prevailing motivation for the entire market, since it is extremely heterogeneous.

"Overcoming obstacles" in the form of forced import substitution is probably the only common task for everyone, he said.

In addition, one way or another, all companies are faced with the need to comply with new standards and with the growth of customer requests, the expert shared.

According to Bogdan Klyuchnikov, it is necessary to close the "holes" and overcome various obstacles, and this slows down the processes of transformation and digitalization. There is a current situation that cannot be ignored: companies cannot simultaneously jump to a new stage of development. They have huge baggage in the form of processes, developments, approaches, methods, technologies and, most importantly, the qualifications and experience of people who ensure their current activities.

Denis Saltykov spoke in the sense that "running for compliance with new standards and growing demands" is a very successful formulation to describe the trend for updating corporate systems in industry, when companies switch from outdated solutions to more modern versions. The main difficulty here is that the functionality of the old system, which has been used and refined by the customer for years, can be very different from the standards of the new platform. And here companies face a choice: try to creatively rethink their processes and switch to new standards, or modify the solution to meet current requirements.

Dmitry Karamyshev emphasized the search for sustainability and technological independence, which, according to him, is key for the market.

Improving Business Efficiency

Denis Saltykov stated that after the departure of Western companies, domestic manufacturers had the opportunity to expand their presence and occupy new niches. IT changes are often required to meet the business goals of increasing production and product range. And the search for new ways of development and innovation is expressed in attempts to increase operational efficiency, to free up resources for further development.

According to Igor Zeldets, Deputy General Director of K2Tekh, the main driver of digitalization in industry remains an increase in business efficiency. And today, in the absence of solutions from Western vendors and growing regulatory requirements, industrial enterprises are striving to digitalize mainly using domestic software. It helps to achieve the desired results, ensuring the continuity of business processes.

In my opinion, the key motivating factor in the Russian market for digitalization of industry is a combination of the desire for technological independence, sustainability and innovation, - said Marat Tyapkaev.

According to the expert, this configuration of circumstances is due to the need to overcome external restrictions, support from the state and an internal desire for the development of high-tech industries.

State influence

The Russian government supports import substitution initiatives through various programs, subsidies and tax incentives for domestic software and hardware manufacturers.

Igor Zeldets believes that support from the outside states is becoming a motivator for digitalization using Russian solutions. For example, Mikhail Mishustin at the Innoprom exhibition, he stressed that the Industrial Development Fund provides targeted loans at 3-5% per annum for the modernization of production and the launch of new high-tech enterprises.

Mikhail Bocharov, Deputy General Director for Science of SiSoft Development JSC, recalled that one of the instructions of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin following the results of the IX conference "Digital Industry of Industrial Russia" was to improve the quality of domestic software by developing a methodology for assessing the functional and technical maturity of Russian industry software solutions compared to leading foreign counterparts. This work was entrusted to the Ministry of Digital Development.

Bogdan Klyuchnikov believes that the main goal of digital transformation for production industries is formulated as follows. The main driving force is the solution of the task set for industry: to ensure the release of competitive domestic products on time, the required quality and in volumes that meet market demand, and within the resources allocated for production. The main value is the use of modern approaches and methods that rely on digital solutions, which makes it possible to solve the above problem as efficiently as possible.

Vladimir Molodykh noted that in the digitalization of industry, especially in the wake of import substitution, the ICC and industry consortia have become a significant driver of development.

In mining, 2024 was the period when key market players moved from valuations and plans to active phase and investment in a range of areas. This was told by Dmitry Karamyshev, Director of the Mining Solutions Department of Reksoft.

This is very noticeable in terms of activities in industrial ICCs, - the expert shared his observations. - Someone independently finances development, someone uses the shoulder of state subsidies and grants.

Development of cooperation

There is a more active exchange of local expertise between participants and industries. Domestic integrators and vendors work together, finalizing solutions for emerging customer requests.

The market is consolidating, connections are being created between large players, - stated Marat Tyapkaev. - This allows you to create better and more competitive solutions.

According to Denis Saltykov, to minimize the cost of large developments, the idea of ​ ​ joint development has become popular, which consists in the creation of industry consortia, when companies combine their resources to create competence centers in order to ensure a full cycle of software development based on unified principles and solutions.

The optimal interaction schemes for digital solution developers have not yet been established, but an understanding is already brewing that success will come only if the efforts are combined. This opinion was shared by Viktor Dozortsev.

Dmitry Karamyshev called the processes of collaboration a "separate vector."

When we talk about building end-to-end automation of process control, we understand that today it is the integration of a whole set of solutions from different domestic vendors, and without cooperation such integrations are impossible, the expert said.

The Russian market is small relatively Western, and the country and industry are challenged to develop competitive solutions, having a market and budgets lower than that of global competitors. This emphasis was made by Vladimir Molodykh. He believes that cooperation and systematic work of industry players, the state and solution providers is the opportunity that can allow Russian solutions to be the best, given the circumstances. Moreover, within the framework of such working groups, you can centrally work with the requirements, immediately take into account all interests.

The development of cooperation between enterprises and scientific institutions is one of the main drivers of the digitalization market for industry in Russia, says Andrei Lukin. And the predominant motivation in the market, in his opinion, is a combination of various positive factors working to increase the competitiveness and sustainability of enterprises.

Russian industrial enterprises prefer the insors model, strive to create their own IT divisions. According to global practice, many IT systems have been developed within manufacturing companies. They brought IT development into outsource companies, which subsequently became independent manufacturers.

Due to the almost complete update of the vendors and solutions market, the competencies of IT employees are not enough for infrastructure development. Despite the fact that after the departure of world companies from the Russian Federation, their local staff came in handy at large domestic enterprises, there is a shortage of specialists on the market, especially if we are talking about a rare examination.

Therefore, companies have to resort to outstaffing and outsourcing (this mainly applies to large companies). In addition, enterprises attract independent companies and startups, creating alliances to develop time-consuming solutions such as high-precision TP modeling. Some large enterprises attract outsourcers to solve some of the routine tasks in the field of technical support.

You can find an approach where companies use their own IT departments or partner IT organizations to locally support, configure, or implement limited digital solutions, with engineering software development and global support provided by development companies.

Support of the product from the vendor or an official partner can be given to the outlet. The development of their own systems, and even more so their subsequent maintenance, is more often carried out by their own IT departments or subsidiaries.

Almost all large industrial enterprises have their own captive IT companies that are developing their own, "said Dmitry Karamyshev. - And these are really big IT organizations with 300 to 2,000 employees each. Undoubtedly, captive players attract professional companies to outsource, but this is no more than 20-25% of the total development volume.

The ratio of outstaffing, outsource development and its own IT divisions for production companies is approximately 30/40/30, - said Andrey Lukin. - Companies actively use outsourcing to solve specialized problems, outstaffing to quickly expand teams, support their own IT divisions for long-term projects and strategic development.

According to Denis Prozorov, there are tasks that are easier and faster to outsource and, in addition to the solution itself, to get an independent assessment, an analysis of processes is a kind of look from the outside.

For us (for obvious reasons), the growth of support for the IT infrastructures of our clients from various industries, including industry, has become explosive, "the expert said. - But for us this is not some completely new story that we received in 2022. We have been successfully developing the direction for the support of foreign equipment and software since 2014.

The fact is that a number of key customers of the HOST Group of Companies already fell under the first package of sectoral sanctions 10 years ago, and they were refused to be accompanied by the products they bought by Western manufacturers.

Over the past few years, the popularity of IT outstaffing has grown significantly, mainly due to a lack of qualified personnel in narrowly focused specialties, - said Alexander Taskaev. - As a rule, outstaffing services are used to perform design or one-time tasks. So, in 2023, accredited Russian companies involved almost 170 thousand developers.

According to Vadim Sabashny, General Director of LANIT-TERKOM (part of the LANIT group), with the growth of the business volume of production enterprises, their requirements for adapting IT solutions for their needs are also increasing. At a certain stage, enterprises are faced with the need to develop their own systems and customize third-party products. In this case, internal IT departments are more active. Connecting third-party specialists has always occupied and occupies a minimal share in this process.

Enterprise solutions are rarely universal and popular, because they are created based on the peculiarities of a particular company. However, as Daria Larionova said, industrial companies have the expertise that "traditional" IT companies often lack: an understanding of the specifics of business and technological processes. And over time, the percentage of industrial IT solutions that have been successfully brought to market should grow.

As Marat Tyapkaev said, production companies often combine approaches to development. Outstaffing is used for short-term or medium-term needs when additional resources are needed to support IT infrastructure or develop new software. Outsource development is used for individual projects where there is a need for high specialization or cost reduction.

Outstaffing involves attracting specialists or entire teams to work on a long-term basis. This solution is often used when companies need to scale teams on a temporary basis, such as for a project, but they do not want or cannot increase staffing. Outsourcing involves transferring an entire project or part of it to third-party developers. This allows you to focus on key business processes, transferring the technical part to external resources, - the expert explained.

As Viktor Dozortsev said, even with the preservation of the current growth rates (in some areas - double-digit) by the end of 2024, one can expect an increase in the market volume to 750-800 billion rubles. Most likely, this growth will still intensify, because Western manufacturers have left the market, while the demand for security systems has sharply increased. In 2024-2025 the focus will remain on ensuring the sustainability of production and supporting existing systems.

Bogdan Klyuchnikov believes that this year the market will show growth in the range of 50-100%. On the one hand, rapid growth is due to the huge need of industry, but on the other hand, growth is being slowed down due to various factors. As new products need to be released and imported ones replaced, the main efforts will be directed to R&D, which will make IT solutions for product development, management of product development and preparation in demand.

Mikhail Bocharov believes that a lot will depend on the rigidity of the state course on domestic digitalization in three areas: software, standards and formats that meet the interests of Russia. First, you need a simple signal to the market - a ban on the study of Western software from vendors who left the country in state universities for budget funds.

In the next two years, Dmitry Vasiliev expects the continuation of the growth of orders in terms of IT from industrial customers. However, the growth rate achieved in 2023 may decrease significantly, up to -50%. Every year, the process of modernization, digitalization and expansion of production will create more and more revenue in the IT market.

The key trends of the current year - import substitution, modernization of the IT landscape, optimization of operating activities - will continue in 2025. This assessment was given by Denis Saltykov. Due to the severe personnel shortage, it is possible to increase the demand of enterprises for RPA technologies, robotization and other solutions that minimize the use of manual labor.

Alexander Goltsov does not see any prerequisites for revolutionary technological changes. The trend of recent times will continue to develop. More noticeable, according to the expert, will be the dynamics of the development of digitalization of the operational technology infrastructure (OT) segment than IT infrastructure. This is due to the much greater complexity of automation and modernization and problems with the availability of import-substituting solutions for this segment on the market.

According to Alexander Taskaev, today there are opportunities to expand the presence of Russian IT solutions in foreign markets. For this, development companies make efforts not only to make a product that meets the requirements of foreign companies, but also to surpass the existing solutions in the domestic markets of friendly countries. Among the key areas in which IT companies invest their forces and resources are the development and implementation of AI, advanced analytics (automated data collection and analysis for the purpose of preparing forecasts), machine learning, mobile applications, geo-positioning, digital twins, etc., the expert said.

Denis Prozorov drew attention to the fact that the information security circuit in Russia has changed a lot over the past three years. The number of cyber attacks has increased significantly, so close attention will be turned towards information security.

We, like many other colleagues in the workshop, are ready to provide our clients with expertise, experience and knowledge to prevent such attacks, he assured.

On the horizon of 2-3 years, a large-scale transition to Russian digital systems can be expected, which will contribute to improving production efficiency. This includes production planning, optimal TP management, personnel competencies management. This forecast was given by Viktor Dozortsev.

I am sure that on the horizon of 10 years we will come to the widespread use of remotely controlled equipment, - said Dmitry Karamyshev.

According to him, this will help retrain most miners to control such machines and systems, which will subsequently allow specialists to work in different industries, because, from the point of view of processes and skills, it does not matter where the machine or system is controlled - in the mining or petrochemical production.

Now remotely controlled equipment is no more than 2% worldwide, but in the next 10 years we will see fully automated sites, quarries and mines in Russia too, the expert is convinced.

Technologies are heading for standardization, the trend for assisting systems with recommendations and forecasts from AI is growing, all this helps to facilitate hard work. The industry is moving towards the prospect of creating an all-digital enterprise with end-to-end processes, digital twins, etc.

In the long term (for 5-10 years), the market is expected to grow by an average of 15-20% annually, "predicts Andrei Lukin. - The main drivers will be the integration of smart technologies, the development of predictive analytics and the expansion of the use of robotics and automation.

In the relatively long term, manufacturing companies will significantly update their processes and approaches as part of digital transformation, there will be chains of development contractor suppliers that will work in a single digital environment with parent companies, gaps between disciplines will disappear, efforts will be directed to the development of fundamentally new products, built on new technologies and physical principles, new engineering and production services will appear, Digital product data will become a critical protected asset, or even a product. Bogdan Klyuchnikov saw such a target perspective.

Dmitry Vasiliev believes that within a decade from 2023, the volume of orders on the IT market will grow on the part of industry. At the end of this ten-year period, industrial customers will occupy a significant market share in IT, comparable to banks, the telecom segment or the public sector at the current stage. Large and medium-sized enterprises will become IT-dependent, their main production processes and business will no longer be able to operate without information systems.

The prospects for the industry, while maintaining the current pace of digitalization, in the opinion of Alexander Goltsov, are promising. In 3-5 years, he and his colleagues expect the emergence of new specialized industry-specific Russian IT solutions, which will give impetus to the next round of market development.

According to Denis Saltykov, the upward trend is the development of MRO and EAM solutions. Industrial equipment, which has become more difficult to maintain due to sanctions, requires special attention, it is necessary to monitor its performance even more carefully. There will be a growing demand for technology to effectively manage assets, repairs and maintenance. The industrial Internet of Things will be in demand, allowing you to increase the performance of equipment. Predictive analytics capable of predicting accidents and breakdowns in production will be in demand.

Mikhail Bocharov expressed confidence that in the field of information modeling, promising developments of domestic turnkey vendors (software, standards and formats) will conquer the markets of the CIS and BRICS countries.

Denis Prozorov believes that in the long term, Russian developments will gain functionality and become as competitive as possible.

{{quote 'I believe that in the medium term we will be able and will produce IT products that will be in demand not only in our country, but also in other friendly jurisdictions, the prospects in the markets of Africa and Latin America are already visible, - said the expert. }}

Yury Lavrov noted the particular importance of the criterion for the competitiveness of domestic IT solutions in the international market, including for the state. In his opinion, the long-term vector of industry development is expressed in total digitization.

I think there will be not a single piece of equipment that will not be able to transmit data, most likely such equipment will simply be banned, standards will be introduced, according to which equipment will not be allowed without the possibility of data transfer, the expert shared.

He also suggested that, in addition to equipment, this trend may go towards measuring the effectiveness of even employees through sensors, but, one way or another, only an increase in data, systems, projects is expected.

On the one hand, digital solutions introduced by enterprises are aimed at specific tasks and respond to situational challenges. Many companies come to understand the need for automation and strategic vision of all processes for their subsequent optimization.

Other companies rely on total digitalization of all systems and processes, and this implies a diverse set of technologies: big data analytics, cloud platforms, equipment maintenance and repair management systems, industrial Internet of Things (IoT), virtual/simulation modeling systems.

Digital twin technologies are actively used on the market, which are supplemented by AI, machine learning and software analysis with graphs of spatial networks. Digital twins are becoming increasingly popular in metallurgy, the oil and gas industry and mechanical engineering.

Production enterprises can use video analytics and machine vision systems, intelligent process control systems, industrial safety monitoring, geotechnical monitoring of buildings and structures. These solutions are able to significantly speed up work processes, minimize risks associated with the human factor, timely identifying potential threats and preventing emergencies.

From the point of view of organizing the work of enterprises, technologies will be in demand that ensure cooperation between various participants in the "development - release - operation of the product" chain. Generative tools for development will be developed, which will allow you to accumulate knowledge for maximum automation.

Virtual and augmented reality technologies are promising for different tasks throughout the product lifecycle.

New fabrication technologies, such as 3D printing using new materials with linear and nonlinear characteristics, will develop in production.

The introduction of PACS for end-to-end management of enterprises, unmanned technologies are relevant. Both directions lead to an increase in the efficiency of the MMC. The cumulative effect of robotic complexes together with end-to-end control based on PACS can reach over + 20% of productivity, plus it will preserve personnel potential.

Innovative projects that are under testing are services based on generative AI and unmanned robots. For example, SIBUR has launched an AI assistant to select replacements for equipment and materials not available in Russia. This solution was created on the basis of the GigaChat neural network from Sberbank.

Severstal is testing cyberdogs that can carry cargo, diagnose equipment and monitor compliance with safety rules. KAMAZ is also expanding the use of industrial robots to increase productivity and reduce costs.

Recall, on June 12 , a new package of US sanctions introduced restrictions on IT support services and cloud services for software intended for enterprise management, and for software intended for design and production. The decision entered into force on September 12, 2024.

Experts interviewed by TAdviser believe that the sanctions will accelerate further import substitution in industry.

This will only speed up the process of switching to domestic solutions, - said Dmitry Slobodenyuk. - As shown by recent events with the blocking of cloud accounts by the American developer Autodesk (owner of AutoCAD), our engineers, designers are used to working in AutoCAD and were in no hurry to switch to other solutions. As a result, they at one point lost access to the Autodesk BIM 360 cloud solution, and with it their design documentation. Of course, it is difficult to rebuild, but it is also wrong to cling to the last for decisions, access to which can be blocked at any time.

International clouds are not available to domestic companies now, but this did not come as a surprise to the Russian IT community, said Dmitry Karamyshev. According to him, the situation will definitely lead to a delayed transition of industrial solutions to the SaaS model in 1-2 years already on the domestic infrastructure of large cloud players, such as VK, Rostelecom, Gostech, Yandex.

According to Alexander Taskaev, sanctions and the departure of numerous foreign vendors only stimulate the pace of development and implementation of domestic IT solutions. In the meantime, there is a multiple increase in demand for Russian developments, since business as a whole understands the new realities perfectly well.

Dmitry Vasiliev believes that as a result of the new sanctions, the number of orders for support and support of software, which Western vendors refused, the migration of data from clouds to storage facilities within enterprises or to data centers of Russian providers, will increase. According to the expert, most Western cloud solutions for production collected data from equipment and software for predicting maintenance and support services. There were cloud-based production planning services based on sales performance and demand plan. They significantly increased business efficiency. It will not be possible to quickly replace these services. However, production without them will not stop.

As Denis Saltykov said, these sanctions will affect the industry to a lesser extent, because cloud technologies in this area are not yet very common. According to him, at the average plant you can hardly find cloud Slack, Asana, Azure-based technologies. On the other hand, these bans will affect other sectors of the economy. In this case, we should expect a wave of import substitution by domestic cloud services, new IT products may appear on the market.

The main damage that Western sanctions could have caused has been made for a long time, says Alexander Goltsov. For more than two years, enterprises have mainly already adapted to the absence of Western vendors in the market, she says.

Indirect evidence of this can be the fact that on July 19 of this year, domestic enterprises did not in any way affect the global failure of equipment working Windows on due to software updates, Crowdstrike when there were problems in the work of airlines, banks, telecom operators and many other companies around the world.

In addition, from January 1, 2025, state authorities, state-owned companies, strategic enterprises and system-forming organizations are legally prohibited not only from using information protection tools from unfriendly countries, but also from using their services (works, services) to ensure information security. The share of such enterprises in the industrial segment is quite large.

In general, judging by the opinions of experts, the digitalization market of the Russian industry and import substitution of software and equipment are in difficult conditions.

Manufacturing enterprises are focused on preserving and efficient businesses, and IT companies are trying to cope with a very large amount of work, trying to close the missing functionality. In individual classes of products, this is very difficult to do.

Such conditions are not conducive to advanced development, although local innovative processes can be very intensive.

Given the successful overcoming of a difficult period, companies hope to reach new horizons of development and planning. At the same time, the visionary vision of positive prospects is cautious.

In terms of financial performance, the industry digitalization market will continue to grow. Experts differ only in estimates of the speed of this growth.

The proposal of some experts to look at the import substitution of the industry in terms of technologically significant aspects for a possible adjustment of the assessment of progress and the corresponding redistribution of resources seems significant.