The key refinancing rate, inflation, taxes and state support affect the pace and characteristics of the development of the IT market. The IT services and IT outsourcing markets are significantly influenced not only by environmental factors, but also by the development of technologies, which gives non-linear dynamics of the process.

Experts optimistically assessed the development of the IT services and IT outsourcing market in 2024 and 2025, as well as the prospects for development in the medium term, in 2026-2027. Diverging in estimates of market volume and the reasons for the change in its growth rates, they all agree that, despite negative factors, the market will grow.

The market remains sensitive to environmental factors. The revision of state support can have a significant impact - the Russian software industry may lose benefits for domestic developers. This will create additional uncertainty and lead to market consolidation, an increase in personnel deficits and an increase in operating expenses.

According to TAdviser, the Russian IT services and IT outsourcing market grew by 25% to 815 billion rubles by the end of 2024, according to preliminary data for 2025, its volume will increase by 15% to 937 billion rubles.

Market participants note that the share of IT services and IT outsourcing is about 20-25% of the total IT market, while in 2024 they estimate the capacity of the Russian IT services market in physical terms in the range from 600 billion to 900 billion rubles.

Yulia Mickiewicz, operations director of KODE, said that in 2024 the total volume of the Russian IT market was estimated at about ₽3,3 -3.5 trillion. Of these, IT services accounted for about ₽700 -750 billion, and IT outsourcing - about ₽260 -280 billion. In 2025, according to the expert, the market as a whole will grow to ₽3,7 - ₽3,9 trillion, while the share of IT services will increase to ₽800 -900 billion, and IT outsourcing - to ₽290 -320 billion.

Eduard Dolgalev, Director of Strategic Development in the CIS at Selecty, commented on the trends in the IT market from 2024 to 2026:

Assessing the preliminary results of 2025, experts note market dynamics in the range from 5% to 18% (year by year).

By the end of 2025, the Russian IT outsourcing market may grow to 200-230 billion rubles, according to Kit-Systems.

According to Ilya Fomichev, in 2025, experts predicted the growth of the Russian market by 15-18%, but taking into account the cooling of the Russian economy, the indicators are likely to be lower.

Nevertheless, realistic indicators remain a positive trend - the market growth will be 5-10%, which will allow the market to reach an estimated volume of 275-288 billion rubles. at the end of 2025, - said Ilya Fomichev.

The leader in the new rating of IT outsourcers, prepared TAdviser based on the results of the companies' revenue for 2024, became. Digital Economy League The company's revenues from IT outsourcing services in 2024 reached 22.7 billion rubles. The second line of the rating was taken by the company, Jet Infosystems the third - by BFT-Holding.

In total, 70 companies took part in the ranking. Their total revenue exceeded 170 billion rubles. Negative dynamics was recorded in 9 participants.

Experts note a number of factors that will contribute to the overall growth of the market, some of which are macroeconomic, some of which are due to the very structure of the market and interactions on it. Among the first are a phased reduction in the refinancing rate, among the second the most significant are the improvement in the quality of interaction between the customer and the outsourcer and the shortage of qualified IT specialists to form the customer's own IT teams, as well as a number of others.

The most dynamic segments in outsourcing infrastructure and managed services, according to Yulia Mickiewicz, are migration to domestic "clouds," installation and support of stacks, ensuring information security and servicing information security solutions. Maintenance and technical support remain the basis for demand generation, but using cloud and hybrid technologies as the subject. The growth of custom development is more dependent on industry budgets and strategies for digital transformation of customers, therefore, they are not a stable source of profitability.

Companies are increasingly transferring non-core ones business processes outsourcing to optimize budgets and improve the efficiency of their main activities. Also, the growth of the market is facilitated by a gradual decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank, a shortage of qualified IT personnel in the labor market for the formation of in-house development teams, coupled with an increase in customer confidence in service providers, Yulia Petrova believes.

The priority areas of development indicated by experts correlate with the specifics of the company's activities, which the expert represents, however, there are several segments, the priority of which is indicated by the majority. This allows us to formulate a consensus forecast on development priorities, both in terms of profitability and technology.

Most experts say that the most marginal is the custom development segment, ON a number of experts say that there are customers who are ready to pay a lot for it. Experts also mention the integration of generative AI, the implementation of predictive models, recommendation systems,. machine vision In addition, outsourcing IT infrastructures and technical support of previously implemented systems remain in demand.

The most promising segment, according to Yana Shakleina, SRO of Front Tech, is bespoke programming. "The reason lies in lower operating costs, when customers optimize staffing and leave resources only to support priority processes. The development and improvement of IT systems is devoted to custom development by the outsourcer team. I will highlight the IT infrastructure outsourcing segment as less popular, but also in demand. One common example is PaaS (Platform as a Service, a cloud service model that provides developers with a ready-made platform for creating, testing, deploying and managing applications), such a model allows them to solve problems to support the health of the infrastructure on which the information system is located. Customers turn to outsourcers because internal specialists do not always have the necessary level of maturity to correctly calculate the amount of costs and resources that are required. At the same time, the content of your own team and IT resources is often more expensive, "said an Outline Tech representative.

In the forecast for 2026-2027, KODE is cautiously optimistic: the IT services market will grow by about 10-15% per year, IT outsourcing - 12-18% of CAGR. Growth will not jump, but will remain steady. Customers are increasingly outsourcing to meet challenges that require 24/7 expertise and support.

Outsourcing, according to CESCA, has ceased to be a way to simply save money. Today it is a tool for strategic risk and competence management. The business realized that it is expensive and inefficient to maintain a large staff of narrow IT specialists. It is more profitable to transfer the routine and expertise to the provider, and focus the internal forces on tasks that create direct business value. In addition, amid turbulence, companies appreciate the ability to quickly adapt IT costs to current needs, which the outsourcing model fully provides.

According to Dmitry Myalkovsky, head of the SimbirSoft department, among customers, custom programming solutions are most in demand, especially those related to artificial intelligence: predictive models, recommendation systems, machine vision and generative AI. These technologies directly affect the user experience and competitive positions of companies, so demand for them is growing faster than for classic infrastructure support or maintenance services. Outsourcing of IT infrastructure and technical support remains stable, but does not show high growth rates. Customers often see these areas as "mandatory" and try to minimize costs, while they are ready to invest in software development for the sake of new opportunities. Interest in AI agents and generative AI continues to grow: companies automate not only routine, but also decision-making.

All experts interviewed by us indicate differences in customer needs by industry/business segment. The differences relate to both the type of IT systems implemented and in demand and the set of services and arise due to which profit generation centers are associated with IT systems. Most experts note that security solutions are in demand, cyber security while those whose business is associated with financial transactions, work with personal data, maintenance of government agencies and facilities are most interested in them. critical information infrastructure

Tatyana Mikhailichenko, Commercial Director of CESCA, pointed to the current industry specifics of demand. According to her, the financial sector and retail focus on cybersecurity and the development of customized scoring software, personal offers and omnichannel platforms. Industry and logistics prioritize the outsourcing of IT infrastructure with fault tolerance, as well as the implementation of automation and IIoT projects that ensure operational continuity and asset safety. In the public sector, the key driver is projects within the framework of Digital Transformation, migration to domestic software and the creation of a secure infrastructure.

Amendments to the law on the security of critical information infrastructure, which entered into force in September 2025, specified and significantly expanded the list of entities subject to the requirements of the regulatory act. Now these include authorities of various levels, state and municipal institutions, economic societies with dominant state participation, as well as ordinary legal entities with CII facilities. And regardless of industry affiliation, the obligation of such organizations included the use of software tools from the register of Russian software and CII and PACS protection tools that meet the requirements of the Government of the Russian Federation. The consequence was an increase in demand for import substitution services for individual solutions and integrated infrastructure migration, said Yulia Petrova from Kit Systems.

Dmitry Myalkovsky from SimbirSoft also notes the dependence of customer IT development priorities on the industry. Thus, banks and marketplaces are actively introducing AI for personalization and forecasting, industrial enterprises are still limited to digitalization at the level of auxiliary systems - core processes remain on old platforms. The public sector and companies with increased security requirements rely on domestic and open-source solutions, including in the field of information security and infrastructure. In industry, the replacement of SAP or other core systems with Russian analogues is extremely slow: enterprises are in no hurry to change working solutions, even if they are foreign. At the same time, fintech and retail are actively switching to domestic databases and using local AI models through open APIs. Thus, the choice of outsourcing direction is directly related to the area in which the customer works and what goals he has - to reduce costs or gain a new competitive advantage.

Andrei Matvienko from "I-Teco," also noting the priority of custom programming, noted the following trends:

1. Banks and retail, as well as the transport industry, are showing increased interest in AI, there is a high demand for the creation of mobile applications and e-commerce tools;
2. In industry and fuel and energy complex, processes are actively underway to implement or import substitution of complex corporate information systems and solutions (ERP, MES, BIGDATA, BI ), dispatch rooms, machine vision systems ;
3. Telecom and providers use AI in creating content, replace imported OSS/BSS of solutions with domestic ones and develop their own.

Every year, industry specificity is becoming brighter, says Artur Zainullin, director of the Outsourcing and Services division at IBS. Retail and FMCG pay a lot of attention to flexibility in development when creating systems that respond to demand in real time and create point-to-point personalization of customer experience. For them, the speed and reliability of implementing changes is a priority. Fintech and telecom focus on secure and fault-tolerant infrastructure. Their key request to the outsourcer is guaranteed business continuity and data protection. For industry and logistics, the main priority is to minimize downtime of key production systems. These industries are in demand for outsourcing the operation of IT systems: from production and repair management to warehouse logistics and end-to-end analytics. The value of a partner is determined by the ability to prevent failures, and not quickly eliminate them, since every minute of downtime means direct financial losses.

As of the beginning of March 2026, the TAdviser database contains information on more than 2.8 thousand projects in the field of IT outsourcing. Most of them fall on three industries: the public sector, financial services and trade.

Most experts note that in 2025, the widespread introduction of systems based on artificial intelligence technologies, as well as no-code/low-code systems in the IT landscape of companies, began as a test of the capabilities of both the IT systems themselves and the capabilities of outsourcers to ensure their operation.

In 2024-2025. the focus of technological development has shifted, as Tatyana Mikhailichenko notes, to the convergence of technologies and adaptation to new realities. Among the priorities is the sovereign (national) Data Stack, the formation of an ecosystem of domestic solutions for data management, analysis and protection. This technological trend now determines the architecture of many projects. Great attention is paid to Green IT - energy efficiency of data centers, optimization of computing loads.

According to Andrei Matvienko from I-Teco"," the market is showing great interest in, AI its scope is expanding. Technologies, low-code no-code, edge computing, quantum computing are actively promoted.

CBDO Umbrella IT Alexey Feofanov believes that the main trends of recent years are technologies of artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotization and process automation. Industrial robots and software solutions are emerging that take on routine tasks. This will lead to the growth of related areas: cloud platforms, cybersecurity, the Internet of Things (IoT), data management systems and analytical, integration solutions.

All experts noted that macroeconomic factors continue to affect the parameters of the IT market, this applies to both growth rates and market volumes in monetary terms. It is noted that customer requests also change the structure of demand, shifting the emphasis in development, implementation and maintenance.

In particular, Andrey Klubnikin from SimbirSoft notes not only the influence, but the forming impact of environmental factors. According to him, the success of an IT company depends mainly on the company's ability to adapt to change, manage risk and anticipate trends. One of these factors is the strengthening of data protection requirements: security is becoming one of the main vectors for the development of the IT industry in the near future.

Experts again point to the important role of the Central Bank's refinancing rate, as well as the volume and format of state support for IT sector companies. Market dynamics in the next two years will depend on these factors. According to experts, industry solutions that take into account the peculiarities of conducting activities will be in demand in different segments, in addition, complex projects will find their niche, including those based on innovative technologies, such as quantum computing, the share of contracts will increase, including implementation, support, development, AI-based analytics and ensuring cybersecurity within the framework of a single solution.

Andrey Matvienko, Deputy Director for Sales and Marketing of I-Teco, believes that the dynamics of the IT market will largely depend on the level of the key rate of the Central Bank. At the moment, there is a gradual decrease in the rate compared to October 2024, which contributes to the resumption of a significant part of investment programs to launch new innovative projects. In addition, Russian vendors are actively working to strengthen market confidence in their products. Government support measures for IT companies play an important role. In his opinion, if these three trends continue over the next two years, then the IT market will expect stable growth.

In 2026-2027, demand will shift towards industry solutions: ready-made services for retail, industry, fintech, taking into account the specifics of regulators and business processes. The share of complex contracts will grow, including not only support, but also development, cybersecurity, AI-based analytics. As a result, Arthur Zainullin from IBS believes, the market is waiting for qualitative growth. The increase in volumes will be accompanied by an increase in the complexity of services and an increase in the role of outsourcing as a strategic tool for business transformation.

Among the key technological trends in the market are platform solutions, cloud services, distributed computing and generative AI. The demand for cloud solutions continues to grow at double-digit rates, helped by the ability to reduce capital costs in the face of a high key rate. Distributed computing, in turn, has become critical to support the growth of cloud services and big data analytics and will become a must-have component of large information systems in the coming years.

In 2026-2027, according to experts, a new wave of sustainable growth can be expected. More stable conditions will allow companies to concentrate on developing complex competencies, replicating successful solutions and building export potential.

Banks and retail chains are actively investing in new technologies - for them, the development of IT directly affects the profit and speed of product withdrawal, while industrial companies and industries with high regulatory requirements, by contrast, are more often betting on system integration, industrial solutions (MES, PIMS) and cybersecurity.