US government bonds (Treasurys)

The main articles are:

• US National Debt
• US Budget
• Bonds

Types of debt securities

• Promissory Notes (up to a year)

• Notes (two to 10 years inclusive)

• Bonds (over 10 years)

• TIPS (with inflation protection)

2024

Sharp decline in demand for medium and long-term bonds in sufficient volume for the needs of the US Treasury

By the end of November 2024, the United States is deficient in medium and long-term bonds of about 100 billion per quarter, and the gap is intercepted by promissory notes.

The public debt market is dysfunctional, the system does not work as required. There is no demand for medium-term and long-term bonds in sufficient volume for the needs of the US Treasury.

This is somewhat similar to the situation with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, when OFZ placements are canceled or carried out in a truncated format, in the United States just the same with the difference that the volumes are two orders of magnitude more - $2 trillion against $20-30 billion.

In 2022-2023, the US Treasury Department transferred placements to the near section of the yield curve for two reasons: demand aggregation occurred in bills against the background of excessive liquidity of almost 2.5 trillion, and secondly, the US Treasury Department hoped to "wait out" the period of high rates and not "catch" the high cost of servicing debt for a long period of time in notes and bonds.

As a result, the share of bills of exchange amounted to 87% in November, 78% from the beginning of 4q24, and in the period from June to December 2023 the share of bills of exchange was 82.3%.

Who is saving the US? List of countries buying Treaserys

The calculations below show net cash flow to the treasury for the amount of 12 months from Oct.23 to Sen.24 inclusive.

For this year, net cash flow to the Treasury amounted to $585 billion, of which 285 billion came from Europe, among Europe by YeS-27 - $160.6 billion, and the Eurozone countries provided net purchases - $157.5 billion.

Among European countries, the leaders in the distribution of financial flows in Treaseris were (over 3 billion per year):

• France - 95.3 billion
• Britain - 56.6bn
• Norway - 40.6 billion
• Luxembourg (European offshore) - 37.6 billion
• Ireland (European offshore) - 20.4 billion
• Switzerland - 15 billion
• Netherlands - 12.9 billion
• Ukraine - 9.4 billion
• Germany - 8.6 billion
• Spain - 6.1 billion
• Sweden - 4.5 billion
• Italy - 3.8 billion

And the main seller in Europe was Belgium for 29.2 billion, but there is an assumption that Chinese money previously entered through Belgian financial gateways, and now comes out.

Among direct offshore companies, the largest buyers were the Caribbean - 126.4 billion, the Cayman Islands - 97.5 billion and the Bahamas - 16.4 billion.

In total, $253 billion or more than 43% of the total net purchases of Treaseris came to the Treaseris from all offshore companies.

Who else supports the treasure market?

• Canada - 70bn
• Singapore - 37.8 billion
• Hong Kong - 36.7 billion
• Taiwan - 36bn
• Mexico - 23bn
• Indonesia - 19 billion
• Australia - 16.1 billion
• South Korea - 15.9 billion
• Philippines - 14.3 billion
• International organizations - 12.4 billion
• Colombia - 8.3 billion (mostly drug mafia money, like buying U.S. loyalty )
• Israel - 7.4 billion
• The rest of the countries are less than 5 billion.

Only 11.5 billion in 12 months came from oil exporters among OPEC in the treasury, and OPEC has not played a role in supporting the treasury for more than 10 years.

Who is the main seller besides Belgium?

• China - sold for 106 billion
• Japan - 43.2 billion
• India - 11.9 billion (previously a buyer)
• Chile - 8.5 billion
• South Africa - 2.4 billion
• Poland - 1.5 billion
• All other net sellers sold by 1.5 billion.

Now the proportion has become clear - 43% of offshore companies go and almost half from Europe. Data on key and most loyal US allies were also updated (there are no surprises). OPEC left the stage more than 10 years ago, also without surprises, Spydell Finance wrote.

The share of foreigners in the US government bond market decreased to the level of the 1990s - 31%

2023

Saudi Arabia increases US Treasury portfolio to $132 billion

Saudi Arabia increased its holdings of US Treasuries by almost $4 billion by the end of 2023, bringing the volume to its highest level since the beginning of 2021.

The amount was nearly $132 billion in December, according to the latest Treasury data.

Other major holders of U.S. government debt, including China and Germany, have also increased stocks of the risky asset, taking advantage of attractive returns.

Ranne, at the end of June 2023, the stocks of US Treasury bonds in Saudi Arabia fell to the lowest level in more than six years.

US government bond yields exceed emerging-market bond yields in national currencies for the first time

In October 2023, for the first time in history, there was an unlikely deviation in world bond markets: emerging market bond yields in national currencies fell below US Treasuries.

10-year note yield tops 5% for first time since 2007

On October 23, 2023, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007.

The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to a new multi-year high of 4.689% on Oct. 2, 2023, amid a sell-off.

It rose 12 bps to reach its highest level since October 2007, topping last week's high of 4.686%.

On Oct. 18, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 0.07 percentage points to 4.91%, its highest level since 2007, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose 0.06 percentage points to 5.01%.

Policymakers in the US worried about the volume of benchmark hedge fund trade in Treasury bonds

In September 2023, politicians in the United States are concerned about the huge leverage used by hedge funds in the so-called basis trading of Treasuries.

She envisions playing two very similar debt prices against each other - selling futures and buying bonds - and profiting from a small gearing gap between them.

The scale of basic trade is difficult to determine. Even the Fed does not have accurate data. However, according to the data, at the end of August 2023, short positions of funds with borrowed capital under the most liquid futures contracts reached a record level - almost $900 billion.

The US Fed believes that rising rates in the treasury market could pose a risk to stability.

Direct Chinese investments in US public debt fell to a minimum since 2009 - $822 billion

In July 2023, China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries to $822 billion, the lowest since 2009. Beijing has sold $300 billion in Treasuries since 2021, with sales accelerating in recent months.

Part of the decline in the share of Treasury bonds is explained simply by their assessment. Bonds fell in price in 2022 and will fall again in 2023 thanks to rising interest rates.

And while direct stocks China have shrunk, it has likely diverted some of its stock elsewhere, experts say. Belgium In, known as the securities storage center, there is an increase in their volume.

In addition, Chinese buyers have recently purchased not Treasury bonds, but other types of American bonds, for example, bonds sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Bottom line: China's central bank likely "did not give up the dollar in large part despite a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury holdings," economists at JPMorgan Chase, led by Haibing Zhu, write in a note dated Oct. 31, 2023.

Earlier in May 2023, China reduced investments in the US public debt to $846.7 billion. This is $22.2 billion less than in April 2023, when the volume of Chinese investments in American debt securities was $868.9 billion. The recorded figure was the lowest since May 2010: then investments were estimated at $843.7 billion. If we compare with May 2022, the fall in investments amounted to $105.1 billion.

It is noted that China's investments in US government bonds peaked in November 2013 - 1.32 trillion. Since then, investment as a whole has been on a downward trajectory (with a number of exceptions). This is explained by several reasons. One of them is the deteriorated relations between Beijing and Washington: US sanctions seriously impede the production of microchips in the PRC and prevent Chinese enterprises from purchasing lithographic equipment.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve conducted an aggressive series of key rate hikes to curb record inflation. However, such a policy leads to an increase in the cost of borrowed funds for business and the population. Against this background, enterprises and citizens begin to refuse credit money, which leads to a weakening of economic activity. To reduce the resulting losses, China has reduced its assets.

In conditions when a further drop in the value of US government bonds is expected, China decided to get rid of some of the retained positions. The PRC adheres to a balanced strategy of diversifying its reserves. There is also a political factor: Beijing does not exclude the likelihood of freezing its investments by the American authorities, - said Freedom Finance Global analyst Roman Lukyanchikov.[1]

Tether invested $53 billion in US public debt

Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has overtaken Thailand, the Philippines and Israel in the largest investment in US public debt - Mexico, Australia and the UAE are next.

In total, as of May 2023, Tether invested $53 billion in American public debt.

American households are the main buyers of the entire range of debt securities of the US Treasury

From January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, accumulated net purchases amounted to $1.7 trillion - this is the most significant flow into the treasury from the US population in the entire history of this market.

We are talking about direct purchases without taking into account money market funds, which mainly distribute everything in Treaseris (about 20% of assets) and without taking into account mutual funds, which mainly sit in shares, but also buy Treaseris (7-8% of assets).

The market position of the population on the Treasuries account, taking into account mutual funds, has changed positively by 1.4 trillion since the beginning of 2022. Estimated net investments of the population, taking into account investment funds, may exceed $2 trillion.

FRS The market position decreased by 1.1 trillion, but net sales were $500 billion.

Commercial banks reduced their position by $147 billion, and investment funds, brokers and dealers, taking into account money market funds, reduced their position in the treasury by $457 billion from the beginning of 2022 to March 31, 2023 (mainly due to impairment after the fall in bonds), while net sales are estimated at 350 billion from the financial sector.

Insurance, pension and state funds combined increased investments in Treasuries by 75 billion at market valuation, where net purchases could amount to about $250 billion.

The position of non-residents on the Treaseris account decreased by $212 billion at market valuation since the beginning of 2022, but began to grow in Q1 2023.

As a result, from Q4 2021 to the end of Q1 2023, the share of non-residents in the share of treasure holders from the total volume remained unchanged (34%), as well as in private insurance, pension (4%) and state funds (9%).

A decrease in the share is observed among investment funds, brokers and dealers from 10 to 8% and a sharp decrease in the share of the Fed from 27 to 22%. The population, on the contrary, increased its share in the treasure from 9 to 16%.

The dominant net buyer of Treaseris is the population in 2023, non-residents and pension funds have intensified.

China has been reducing investments in US public debt to $848.8 billion for the seventh month. Allies ramp up purchases and rescue US

According to the US Treasury, in February 2023, the Chinese portfolio of investments in American public debt decreased by another $10.6 billion - to $848.8 billion.

Investments Beijing in the American public debt have decreased to a minimum over the past 12.5 years. China reduces investment for the seventh month in a row.

China's share is steadily declining in the structure of foreign treasure holders - by half in 10-11 years with a decrease in the share from 26 to 13%. A faster and more sustainable decline in China's share of the treasure began in 2018 at the time of the resumption of the trade war between China and the United States (then the United States began to "dump" China's technological flagships, where Huawei got the most).

The next phase of accelerating China's isolation from American securities began in mid-2021 and continues to this day - the presence decreased by 3.7 percentage points. Japan's participation in the structure of foreign treasure holders is decreasing from 22-23% in 2012 to 17% by January 2023.

The difference between Japan and China is that the decline in China's interest in American securities is due to political motives, and in Japan - economic reasons due to the depletion of the current account surplus, as the main resource for external investment.

Who replaces the two main holders of the Treaseris (China and Japan)? Key US allies. The presence of the Eurozone increased over 10 years from 10 to 18%, and the main leap with an increase in the share of 3.6 pp occurred from mid-2021 - in fact, the share of China was completely replaced over the past 1.5 years.

This is quite surprising, since just from Q3 2021 there was a collapse of the Eurozone's trade balance into a deficit, zeroing and then withdrawing into a deficit and current account. Even with the exhaustion of the resource of external investment, the Eurozone managed to concentrate everything that is possible to save the Treasuries.

The treasure rescue operation involved, Britain which increased its presence from 2 to almost 9% and by 3 percentage points over the past 1.5 years, replacing Japan.

Australia and Canada have increased their share from 1.3% to 4.3% over 10 years and by 2.3 pp over the past 1.5 years, almost completely replacing other developing countries that are leaving the treasury.

The eurozone and the Anglo-Saxon world are the main actors in the operation to save the Treasuries over the past 10 years and especially over the past 1.5 years on the trajectory of a more sustainable division of the world into spheres of influence - "Peace with the USA" and "Peace outside the USA," Spydell Finance wrote.

The key allies of the United States are the countries of the Eurozone without Ireland and,, Luxembourg,, Britain,, Japan,, Canada,, Australia,, and South Korea Singapore(Switzerland as Norway Sweden Denmark Israel the main Taiwan suppliers of capital) and (, Luxembourg, offshores Ireland Jersey, Bahamas, Bermuda,, Cayman Virgin Islands Islands).

Together, key US allies own $21 trillion of cut-off securities as of May 31, 2023, which is 81.5% of all securities in non-resident accounts according to Spydell Finance calculations based on information from the US Treasury.

US two-year bond yields above 5% for first time since 2007

2022

Failure in the volume of placements in the 4th quarter: $234 billion instead of the planned $550 billion

The US authorities planned to place at least $550 billion in government bonds in Q4 2022, and placed 234 billion in the group of bonds Bills (up to a year), Notes (from a year to 10 years) and Bonds (over 10 years).

In December 2022, net repayment on bills was 115 billion, placement of 75 billion on notes and placement of 18 billion on bonds. As you can see on the chart, the 3-month moving average of medium and long-term placements has been continuously declining since December 2021.

The reason for this trend is the disconnection of quantitative easing (QE) in March 2022 and the start of sales from June 2022 (liquidity deficit), plus negative rates in real terms.

The US Treasury is forced to place in a short and expensive debt, loading the budget with additional interest expenses and undermining stability in 2023, because this debt will have to be refinanced in worse conditions, the Spydell Finance channel noted.

According to the payment statements of the US Treasury, the balance on public debt is as follows: October - plus 31 billion net borrowings, November - plus 185 billion, December - minus 37 billion, i.e. 179 billion in three months for all types of public debt obligations.

They planned 700 billion cash positions as of December 31, 2022, and received 446 billion in fact - and here is a failure. As of January 6, 2023, another 70 billion cache was burned out, covering operational and investment gaps.

The US Treasury is constrained by a debt limit of 70 billion, i.e. there will be no major placements. For the market, this is rather a plus, because liquidity will not be withdrawn from the system. However, a short-term plus can turn into medium-term problems.

The debate about the limit has not yet begun. The limit will be raised, there is no doubt here, but clowning will unfold until about May 2023, Spydell Finance predicted at the beginning of the year. Until that moment, the Ministry of Finance will "heat up" the entire cache reserve, and problems will begin from June, because the load on the system will rise sharply in conditions of liquidity deficit, zero position cache and the need to finance the budget. By this point, the situation in the debt market will deteriorate sharply.

US foreign debt holders map: Japan, China and Britain in lead

The population buys Treaseris due to problems in the stock market. Others sell

Who buys the treasure when non-residents and the Fed, being the main holder, sell them? Households directly (on their own behalf, as an individual through the exchange) and indirectly (through intermediaries represented by mutual funds). The stability of the debt market in the context of negative real rates and sales from the Fed is supported by the population, and USA the resource is the sale of shares and the withdrawal of funds from deposits.

In 2022, American households sent an unprecedented amount of financial funds to bonds - over 1.5 trillion per year, and a significant part (more than 1 trillion) was distributed to the Treasury, acting as the main buyer, compensating for the exit of the Fed and non-residents.

The structure of the treasure holders:

• Compared to the 4th quarter of 2021, households owned 8.9% of Treaseris (including bills), and as of the 3rd quarter of 2022, the share rose sharply to 13.3%.
• Fed - cut share from 26.5% to 23.8%
• Non-residents - slight reduction from 34% to 33.5%
• State funds - increase in share from 9.1% to 9.5%
• Insurance and pension funds - reduction of share from 3.9% to 3.6%
• Commercial banks - increase from 7.2% to 7.4%
• Investment funds, brokers, dealers and market makers - decrease from 10.4% to 8.9%

Together, the financial market - banks, investment funds, brokers and dealers for Q4 2021 owned 17.6%, and now 16.3%.

Thus, the main support was concentrated among residents with a very specific subject - the population.

On the trajectory of yield growth, the population redistributed financial resources from deposits and shares. There is a quite working rule here - the worse things are in the stock market, the better the position in the debt market, so the strategic guarantees of holding the debt market are the weakness of the stock market. They walk in antiphase.

The graph shows the change in the position for the Treasuries account from Q3 2014 and Q3 2008. These two dates were not taken arbitrarily. Q3 2014 is the end date of three protracted quantitative easing programs and the market's "free float" until 2020, when the terminal monetary and fiscal frenzy occurred.

Q3 2008 is the last quarter before the intensification of the printing press momentum and the "new normality," when the growth rate of public debt increased several times.

This is market valuation data, so the largest holders (the Fed and non-residents) are reducing positions much more than net sales in fact. Due to the fall in bonds, the market valuation is changing in the negative direction, and a large position leads to distortions.

So the population saves the treasure, noted the Spydell Finance channel.

Russia reduced investments in US government securities from $2.1 billion to $629 million

In December 2022, the Russian Federation sharply reduced its investments in US government securities to $629 million from about $2.1 billion in November, the US Treasury said in February 2023.

Sharp increase in the share of European countries among holders of US government bonds with a decrease in the share of China and Japan

In 2022, there was a steady trend towards fragmentation of the global financial space, where the structure of investments in treaseris is a clear marker. The countries of Europe are showing the highest activity, being the main supplier and key support group.

Just 10 years ago, the countries of the Eurozone,, Britain, and Switzerland Sweden Denmark Norway in total occupied 17-18% in the structure of treasure holders among non-residents, China and 25% were stable.

As of November 2022, the above countries almost doubled their share - a third of non-residents, and China reduced to 14.6%. The eurozone 10 years ago formed 10% in the structure of treasure holders among non-residents, and now 17.4%, Britain about 2% in 2012 and 9% in 2022. It is in this group that the main changes.

Moreover, the trend is not weakening, but is rapidly intensifying, despite the balance of payments crisis due to the collapse of the current account into a deficit. In fact, Europe operates on the principle of "die, but support the United States from the last available resources," wrote the telegram channel Spydell Finance.

There is also a significant moment - for the first time since the formation of the international Treaseris market, Japan's share has collapsed and gained a foothold BELOW the Eurozone countries, as Japan struggles with the currency crisis and uses the Treaseris resource to conduct currency interventions.

Countries unfriendly to Russia provide over 61% in the structure of treasure holders among non-residents, compared to 47-48% 10 years ago and 53% in 2018.

There is a sustained long-term trend of increasing the influence of key allies in forming a pool of strategic investors and major capital suppliers in the Treaserys.

The phases of increased concentration of strategic allies in the treasure correlate with the degree of geopolitical hardening.

The first phase of geopolitical bitterness, the tour of the US State Department and related agents around the world began with the Arab Spring in 2011, intensified after the Ukrainian events in 2014, and then after 2018 the confrontation grew with China. During the same period, US relations with Turkey and key OPEC countries deteriorated.

Key developing countries are increasingly important in financing the American public debt every year. The trend is steady with acceleration after 2018, where China is leading the process.

China's investments in American Treasuries in 2022 fell by $173.2 billion (-17%) and reached $862.3 billion - the lowest level since May 2010.

There is a nuance here that must be taken into account. The US Treasury takes into account nominal holders, while real holders are practically impossible to trace in an operational dimension. The same China can invest in treasuries through European funds and trusts located offshore or in European countries.

Yield on two-year and one-year bonds exceeded 4%

In September 2022, the yield on two-year US government bonds exceeded 4%. For annual securities, this yield was recorded in October.

US government bonds in Chinese assets fall below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010

China in May 2022 reduced investments in the US national debt by $23 billion. China's investment in US public debt fell below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010. China is the second largest foreign holder of US public debt after Japan.

In the first half of 2022, the placement decreased by $100 billion, or almost 10%, to $970 billion, writes Nikkei Asia.

Foreign investments in US government bonds fell to a minimum in 19 years - 23%

Developing countries cut investments in US government bonds to lows in 2010

The volume of investments in treasuries USA by a group of 12 of developing countries continues to actively decline, falling to lows since March 2010.

Over the past year, Treaseris was sold for $150 billion.

Ten-year yield growth to 3.25%

2021

Russia continues to withdraw from the US public debt

In 2010, Russia held a record amount of its own reserves in the US national debt - $176.3 billion, and in 2013 - already $150 billion. Since 2014, after anti-Russian sanctions, Russia's investments in the US public debt began to decline and by 2018 fell 2 times, from 96.1 billion to 48.7 billion dollars, and then to 14.9 billion, and by March 2020 to a minimum of $4 billion.

In November 2021, Russia sold $1.3 billion in bonds, reducing their volume on its balance sheet from $3.72 billion in October 2021 to $2.409 billion in November.

Dan Morehead: US government bonds are a Ponzi scheme

Bitcoin investment giant, Pantera Capital director Dan Morehead in December 2021 called bond markets a "Ponzi scheme."

The Ponzi scheme is named after Charles Ponzi, an Italian fraudster who moved to North America and became famous for his fraudulent money-making system. In the early 1920s, Ponzi managed to deceive hundreds of victims, and his scheme lasted more than a year. In principle, the Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment scam, paying senior investors money raised from new investors. The problem with such a scheme is that ultimately not all investors will receive repayments.

Bond investors "will be completely wiped out when the Fed stops manipulating the bond market." Morehead argues that Bitcoin and crypto assets can become hedges when bubbles created by the Fed's efforts start to burst.

"The largest Ponzi scheme in history is the US government and mortgage bond market at $33 trillion-plus, all run by one non-economic, dominant entity that trades on the basis of substantial, non-public information."

He's not the first to compare Fed policy to the Ponzi scheme. Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments made a similar reference in early 2020.

While regulators are sounding the alarm over cryptocurrencies, Morehead insists the depth and breadth of Bitcoin's market makes it immune to rigging.

Real U.S. 10-year yield falls to record low of -1.127%

In July 2021, the real yield on 10-year US bonds fell to a record low of -1.127%, amid rising concerns about the prospects for economic growth and increased inflation.

2020

Russia increased investments in bonds to $5.87 billion

in Russia June 2020, it increased by 8.9% investments in US government securities - up to 5.87 billion dollars compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Treasury.

Of the total, $2.87 billion came from long-term securities and $3.001 billion from short-term securities. The Russian Federation is not one of the thirty largest holders of American debt.

In first place in the list of the largest holders of US debt remains Japan, its investments for the month increased by $900 million - up to 1.261 trillion.

In second place remains China with 1.074 trillion dollars (a reduction of 9.3 billion). This is followed by the UK ($445.6 billion), which in a month reduced the volume of bonds on its balance sheet by 200 million.

Minimum return for 234 years

Japan is the largest U.S. lender. Russia has only $3.85 billion in US government bonds

Top 5 US debt holders:

1.: Japan 1,271,7 billion dollars USA

2. China: 1,081,6 billion

3. UK: 395.3 billion

4. Ireland: 271.5 billion

5. Brazil: 264.4 billion

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation sold almost all investments in US government bonds. In March 2020, investments fell from $12.58 billion to $3.85 billion, according to the US Treasury.

2019

The yield curve has become flat: the United States is on the verge of a crisis

The bond yield curve in USA mid-August 2019 flattened to levels not seen since before the financial crisis.

The difference between the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds and the yield on 10-year bonds is the flatest since June 2007.

The yield curve is a curve showing yields or interest rates on different bond issues.

Usually, the further the maturity date of a bond (longer the term of its circulation), the higher the yield of such a bond.

A yield curve can be built for any bond, but there is one particular curve that is more important than everyone else.

This is the yield curve of bonds issued by the US Treasury Department to finance its activities (Russia Ministry of Finance issued by OFZs). This curve shows the difference in returns between 10-year and 2-year issues, which is historically an indicator of the health of the economy and markets.

When the yield on long-term bonds equals the yield on short-term bonds, the curve becomes "flat." And when long-term bond yields fall below short-term ones, the curve becomes "inverted" (inversion).

Yield curve inversion is considered a harbinger of recession. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, after analyzing yield curves since the 1950s, found that the inversion of the yield curve always led to a recession over the next 18 months, except for only one case in the era of Keynesian regulation.

The history of interest rates in the United States since the beginning of the 20th century

2017: Russia holds $100 billion in US government bonds

2016

States lend $6.1 trillion to the United States

In total, countries own US Treasuries for $6.126 trillion, as of January 20, 2016.

As of January 2016, the largest creditor USA is. China On his account, US Treasury bonds (Treasuries) worth about $1.264 trillion. In second place is: Japan it owns $1.145 trillion Treasuries.

Russia is also a major holder of US Treasury bonds, but over the past two years, investments in these securities have decreased by more than one and a half times.

If in December 2013 Russia occupied the 9th line in the list of the largest countries - holders of US Treasuries with investments in these securities in the amount of $138.6 billion, then by December 2015 it dropped to 15th place with an investment volume of $82 billion. However, in January 2016, there was a reverse trend: Russia again increased investments in US treasury securities, to $88 billion.

In 2007, US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called the fact that most of the US national debt is concentrated in the hands of other countries "a source of great vulnerability."

Fed holds 35% of U.S. bond volume maturing more than 5 years

In September 2016, one of the former representatives of the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, who served as president of the Dallas Fed from 2005 to 2015, said in an interview with CNBC that the Fed was monetizing the US public debt:

One of the key facts for today is that the Federal Reserve owns 35% of the total volume of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years. Fed monetizes US national debt^[2].

When the Central Bank carries out such actions, officials lose the incentive to maintain a stable fiscal policy. At the same time, the effectiveness of monetary programs over time is reduced to zero, leading to inflation in the value of financial assets, but not helping the real economy.

2015: China and Japan - top US lenders, Russia - No. 16

Russia decided to suspend the sale of American Treasuries and in July 2015 invested $9.7 billion in them, such data leads. Ministry of Finance USA

Thus, Russia's investments in US government securities increased to $81.7 billion, which, however, is still about a third less than a year ago. In July 2014, the figure was almost $115 billion.

In the list of the largest holders of the US public debt for July 2015, Russia ranks 16th, and the 1st is divided China : Japan they have about $1.2 trillion each, although Beijing is now actively selling Treaseris and, according to some reports, this year alone, the Chinese threw more than $100 billion into the market of these securities.

But there is one subtle nuance here. According to official data, China in July 2015 sold Treasuries in the amount of $30.4 billion, but Belgium sold them in the amount of $52.3 billion and, by the way, out of the three largest holders of American debt fell below 10th place. The fact is that China at one time bought American bonds through Belgium, and now, obviously, sold these securities.

By the way, China is not alone here at all: the total investment of central banks in Treaseris in July 2015 fell by 1.5% to $6.08 trillion, and this is the third decline in the last 4 months.

2013: Collapse of quotations

In May-June 2013, the quotes of US 10-year bonds fell by a total of 3.2 percent. The reason for the collapse was signals from FRS the fact that its purchases of debt obligations may decrease in the near future.

As a result, some investors began to withdraw funds from government bonds, although rates on them began to rise. Last month, net market losses amounted to $79.8 billion.

In July 2013, it became known that investors who invested in American government bonds lost about $317 billion due to a decrease in quotations of these securities over the past two months, Bloomberg reports. Despite this, the largest foreign banks such as Mizuho, Deutsche Bank (Deutschebank) and HSBC are in no hurry to get rid of US securities. ^[3].

2012: Analysts' warnings about the risks of US government bonds

In June 2012, investor Mark Faber, who opened up emerging markets to the world, declared the US government bond market the greatest bubble in history. And he's not alone. A huge number of analysts persistently recommend that customers stay away from US Treasuries. The essence of the argument: interest rates are extremely low, they have nowhere to fall further and, as soon as the economy returns to the rails of sustainable growth, inflation will rise and rates will creep up. If they return to 1.5% per annum, the price of the current ten-year paper will fall by 12%, and the thirty-year paper - by all 22%.

2008: Surge in demand amid instability

After the 2008 financial crisis, foreign investors began to massively buy up American securities, seeing in them protection from the general collapse of markets. The amount of obligations on the hands of foreigners doubled during this period to $5.6 trillion.

All the while, bond rates have been at record lows, lagging behind U.S. inflation. However, investing in government bonds allowed investors to play on raising their quotations.

Foreign countries have also increased their investments in U.S. government bonds. The leaders in this indicator for July 2013 are China and Japan, holding 1.3 and 1.1 trillion dollars in these assets, respectively.

See also

• Eurobonds of Russia

Notes