Warehouse real estate (Russian market)

Main article: Real estate (Russian market)

2024

The largest warehouse lease transaction since the beginning of the year was closed in Russia: The electrical engineering company IEK Group received 67.5 thousand square meters. m

In July 2024, it became known that the largest warehouse lease transaction since the beginning of the year was closed in Russia: the electrical engineering company IEK Group rented 67.5 thousand square meters from the developer Parametr, created by the PIK group. m in the Kuvekino industrial park in the Desenovskoye settlement near Troitsk in new Moscow. The tenant will occupy the area, which will be commissioned in mid-2025 as part of the first stage of the project. Read more here

2023

Investments in warehouses in Russia for the year decreased by 36%, to 53 billion rubles

In 2023, the volume of investment transactions in the warehouse real estate segment in Russia amounted to about 53 billion rubles, which is 36% less compared to 2022. The negative dynamics is due, in particular, to an increase in the cost of construction and rental rates. The analysis of the industry is given in the material of IBC Real Estate, which TAdviser got acquainted with at the end of October 2024.

According to estimates, in 2019, investments in warehouses in Russia amounted to 19 billion rubles. In 2020, the figure rose to 58 billion rubles, and in 2021 - to 74 billion rubles. At the end of 2022, investments reached 83 billion rubles. But in 2023, the volume of investments in industrial real estate became the smallest among other sectors. The key reason is low returns: the warehouse real estate segment faced a permanent increase in construction costs in relation to an increase in rental rates. Under such conditions, during the closing period, sellers were ready to increase the value of the asset, and this negatively affected a number of transactions.

Another negative factor is the shortage of liquid supply. For most investors, the most attractive warehouse facilities are new projects built in the BTS format (building construction according to the customer's requirements). However, there were very few such deals. At the same time, in 2023, warehouse owners and developers who built objects speculatively were in the most advantageous position: against the background of significant demand, they entered into transactions at higher rental rates. The key deals of 2023 were:

• Warehouse complex "Landmark" Ozon: total area - 105 thousand square meters, the transaction amount - 7.5 billion rubles;
• Warehouse complex "Trilogi Park Tomilino": total area - 108 thousand square meters, transaction amount - 6.2-6.5 billion rubles;
• Warehouse complex "DDT Salaryevo": total area - 78 thousand square meters, the transaction amount - 4.5-4.8 billion rubles.^[1]

The largest warehouse owners in Russia have been named. Wildberries takes the lead

In 2023, investment activity in the commercial real estate market in Russia reached record levels: the volume of investments amounted to 872 billion rubles. At the same time, warehouse real estate accounted for about 14% of this amount, or 119 billion rubles, which also became a record. Such data are reflected in the review of the consulting company NF Group, published on September 12, 2024.

According to Konstantin Fomichenko, regional director of the department of industrial and warehouse real estate at NF Group, by the end of 2024, warehouse real estate owners in the Russian Federation may become leaders. Wildberries At the end of 2023, the volume of warehouse space owned by the marketplace reached 1.5 million square meters, and in 2024-2025, more than 2 million square meters are expected to be added to them. In second place, according to Fomichenko, will be the company: the "Modern Real Estate Funds" volume of its space in the warehouse segment is estimated at almost 2.3 million square meters. The three will close the network "Magnet" with an indicator of 1.9 million square meters.

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Freepik

The NF Group report said that the growth of investments in the warehouse segment in 2023 is due to the acquisition of high-quality objects by investment funds. Among them are Modern Real Estate Funds LLC, Savings Plus and Central Properties, which accounted for 58% of the total investment.

According to Fomichenko, the demand for warehouse space in Russia remains high, which is associated with the active development of the e-commerce sector. In particular, for the nine months of 2024, 120-130 billion rubles were invested in the warehouse segment, which exceeds the 2023 figure. It is expected that by the end of 2024 the volume of investments in this market will reach 150-160 billion rubles, which will be a new historical record.^[2]

Increase in the volume of commissioned storage aids

At the end of 2023, the volume of commissioned warehouse space in Russia reached 4.6 million square meters. For comparison, a year earlier this figure was estimated at 4.03 million square meters. According to the BusinesStat report, released at the end of March 2024, growth was 14.3%.

It is noted that the industry demonstrates heterogeneous dynamics. The maximum growth was recorded in 2019, when the volume of warehouse space commissioned in the Russian Federation jumped on an annualized basis by 54% - to 3.51 million square meters. This, in particular, was facilitated by the development of the market in the Moscow region. However, in 2020, there was a 10.1% decline with a final result of 3.15 million square meters. This is due to the fact that due to restrictions on the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, some projects being implemented have been suspended.

In 2021, the volume of new construction of general retail warehouses increased by 37.6% and reached 4.34 million square meters. Significant areas of warehouse real estate were put into operation in the Moscow, Tula, Sverdlovsk regions and Krasnodar Territory. In 2022, another fall was recorded - by 7.2%. Economic changes and the imposition of sanctions had a negative impact on the market. Foreign companies leaving Russia vacated storage space. Against the background of an increase in the supply of vacant facilities, operators suspended the commissioning of new complexes. At the same time, a significant number of high-quality warehouse real estate appeared in the Moscow region in 2022.

At the same time, in 2023, with the restoration of the industry and the implementation of deferred projects, a record volume of warehouse space put into operation was noted. Key transactions in the market were concluded by Ozon, Willdberries, ВсеИнструменты.ру, Vkusville, Magnit and X5 Retail Group.^[3].

The volume of sales and rental of warehouses updated the historical record - 6.1 million square meters

At the end of 2023, the total volume of purchased and leased warehouse space throughout Russia, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, amounted to approximately 6.1 million square meters, which is a new historical record. This is about 2.5 times more compared to 2022. Moreover, according to the calculations of various analytical agencies, the volume of transactions in 2023 could reach 7.5 million square meters. Such data are given in the report of the Business Profile group, presented on February 12, 2024.

It is said that in 2023 the warehouse real estate market in Russia faced serious difficulties. The main problem is the reduction of vacant warehouses to a record low: as a result, an increase in rental rates was recorded. In addition, the commissioning of new facilities has slowed down: due to the current geopolitical situation, construction costs much more, and many types of equipment cannot be imported into Russia due to sanctions. In 2023, almost 3.5 million square meters of storage facilities were commissioned in the Russian Federation.

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Business Profile

At the end of 2023, the total volume of high-quality warehouse supply (classes A and B) throughout Russia (including the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region) is 45.7 million square meters. Of these, 54% (or 24.5 million square meters) falls on the Moscow region, 11% (5.1 million square meters) - on St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, 35% (16.1 million square meters) - on the rest of the regions of Russia.

In 2023, the volume of investments in warehouse real estate in Russia reached 61 billion rubles, which is 15% more than in 2022. More than 50% of all financial investments fell on warehouse facilities in the Moscow region. It is noted that the rental rate in the capital rose on an annualized basis from 5800 rubles to 8500 rubles per square meter per year.^[4]

The Russian warehouse real estate market has updated its historical maximum - 6.1 million square meters. m

The Russian warehouse real estate market updated its historical maximum in 2023: during this period, its demand amounted to 6.1 million square meters. m, which is 2.5 times more than in 2022. This is evidenced by the data of the consulting company IBC Real Estate.

The market has never faced anything like this. Transactions closed both on lease and sale, a significant part of them were built-to-suite transactions. At the same time, small markets with a minimum supply volume faced record demand, - said Ekaterina Nogai, head of the research department and analyst at IBC Real Estate (ex.JLL) (quoted by Kommersant).

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Pexels

According to her, the demand indicator in developing hubs exceeded a record 1.2 million square meters. m. In St. Petersburg, the volume of demand amounted to 1 million square meters. m, which is on average twice as high as a year earlier. In the Moscow region, transactions were concluded with warehouse real estate for 3.4 million square meters. m.

According to Nikoliers analysts, in 2023 the demand for warehouse real estate in the Moscow region reached a historically record 3,283 thousand square meters. m. The impressive growth is largely due to the implementation of deferred demand, accumulated due to low business activity in 2022, as well as an increase in demand from key market consumers. These results exceeded the previous year's figure by 2.4 times, and, in response to a surge in demand, almost all available free space on the markets was occupied.

According to analysts at NF Group, against the background of a decrease in the indicator of free space caused by a record volume of concluded transactions, the weighted average rental rate for warehouses in the Moscow region in 2023 reached 7,500 rubles/m2. The requested rental rate for high-quality warehouse real estate inside Moscow in 2023 amounted to 10,500 - 12,500 rubles/m2.^[5]

In the warehouse real estate market of the Moscow region, a record was set for rental volume

In 2023, 3.3 million square meters were sold and leased in Moscow and the Moscow region. m of warehouse real estate, which is twice as much as a year earlier, and is a record indicator for the market. Such data analysts NF Group released at the end of January 2024. Read more here.

SDEK has concluded the largest deal in the Moscow warehouse real estate market

SDEK has concluded the largest transaction in the warehouse real estate market in the Moscow region. It was announced at the end of May 2023. Read more here.

2022

The volume of launch of new warehouses in Russia increased 1.8 times

The volume of new warehouses launched in Russia over 5 years has grown 1.8 times - from 2.28 million square meters. m in 2018 to 4.03 million square meters. m in 2022. Such data analysts BusinesStat released in May 2023.

According to experts, the rise in the market is associated with growing demand for warehouses from marketplaces, retailers, transport and logistics companies.

At the same time, in 2022, sanctions led to a decrease in the commissioning of warehouse complexes by 7.2% compared to 2021. Western companies leaving the Russian market vacated storage space. Against the background of an increase in the supply of vacant warehouses, market operators suspended the commissioning of new warehouse real estate. The number of transactions for renting and buying warehouses has decreased.

According to analysts, unlike other segments of commercial real estate, the warehouse market benefited from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic due to the growth of the e-commerce, e-grocery markets and logistics companies serving them. The increase in the volume of transactions for the construction of warehouse complexes in the built to suit format (for a specific customer) led to a rapid increase in the commissioning of warehouse space in 2021.

In the Moscow region in 2022, a record volume of high-quality warehouse real estate was introduced, the study notes. Market operators attribute this to the growth of activity in previous years and the conclusion in 2020-2021 of the largest transactions mainly with representatives of the e-commerce sector according to the built to suit scheme (for a specific client). St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region also showed an increase in commissioned areas. A decrease in the entry of warehouse facilities was observed in other regions after the high indicators of 2021. In the context of the crisis, the launch date for part of the facilities was postponed to 2023, experts add.^[6]

The market fell by 43% to 2.65 million square meters. m

In 2022, there was a sharp drop in demand for warehouse real estate in Russia. The volume of transactions, according to NF Group estimates, decreased by 43%, to 2.65 million square meters. m.

The largest decline was recorded in regional markets, where the volume of transactions more than halved, to 630 thousand square meters. m In Moscow, the volume of transactions decreased by 38%, to 1.7 million square meters. m. The markets of the regions of Russia and St. Petersburg (including the Leningrad region) turned out to be more sensitive to external factors, where demand fell by half and amounted to 630 thousand square meters. m and 321 thousand square meters. m, respectively.

The drop in demand is due to the high demand for such real estate in 2021 and with the general economic uncertainty that arose against the background of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine. These factors will continue to affect the warehouse market in 2023, the researchers said.

The main demand for warehouses in the regions is formed by retail chains. According to the NF Group, in 2022 they accounted for 61% of regional transactions, while online retail accounted for only 14%. In Moscow, the situation is the opposite - here the e-commerce sector accounted for 44% of transactions in 2022.

The total volume of warehouse space in Russia in 2022 amounted to 42.2 million square meters. m. More than half of them (55% or 23.2 million square meters) fall on the Moscow region, 11% (4.6 million square meters) - on St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region and about 34% (14.4 million square meters) - on the rest of the regions of Russia.

In 2022, 3.4 million square meters. m of warehouse real estate, which is 6% more than a year earlier. At the same time, 58% of the commissioned areas (1,945 thousand square meters) are located in Moscow, 16% (555 thousand square meters) - in St. Petersburg and 26% (859 thousand square meters) - in other regions of Russia. 

The share of space built for rent slightly decreased - by 3 pp, to 32% in the total volume of commissioning. Finally, about 23% of the warehouse space was introduced by the owners.

Ozon closed the largest deal on the Russian warehouse market

Ozon closed the largest deal in 2022 on the Russian warehouse market. Vedomosti writes about this on January 23, 2023, citing three consultants who worked with this facility, as well as a representative of Ozon itself. Read more here.

One of the largest warehouse rental transactions in Russia is closed

Internet retailer Sima-land has closed one of the largest transactions in the Russian warehouse market in 2022. According to Vedomosti in the issue of September 27, 2022, the company entered into a long-term lease agreement with the developer AT Real Estate for warehouse premises with a total area of ​ ​ 42,204 square meters. m in the speech park "Bykovo," which is located in the village of the same name in the Ramensky district of the Moscow region. Read more here.

2021

The volume of transactions with warehouse real estate increased by 36%, to 4.56 million square meters. m

The volume of transactions with warehouse real estate in Russia at the end of 2021 set a new record - 4.56 million square meters. m, which is 36% higher than the result of the previous year. The regions (excluding the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region) accounted for 28% of the concluded transactions. This is evidenced by the data of Knight Frank analysts, released on February 4, 2022.

In 2021, the maximum volume of absorbed space was recorded in Samara - about 208 thousand square meters were acquired or leased in the region. m (17% of the total volume of transactions in the regions). In second place in the distribution of regional demand are Krasnodar and the Republic of Adygea with a total volume of closed transactions of 184 thousand square meters. m The third place is occupied by Novosibirsk (173 thousand square meters. m).

According to the study, at the end of 2021, the classic retail was replaced by representatives of online trading. The share of classic retail in the structure of demand decreased by 33 pp, while the share of the online trading sector increased by more than two and a half times.

More than 1.36 million square meters. m (51% of the total volume of transactions) fell on speculative leases. This format became the most popular among logistics companies, as well as in the online trading segment: in 2021, logistics and courier companies rented about 391 thousand square meters. m, online retail accounted for 384 thousand square meters. m of concluded transactions. The share of speculative lease transactions increased by 10 pp compared to the final indicator of 2020, when it amounted to 41% of total demand.

According to estimates by the consulting company JLL, in 2021, a record volume of investment transactions in warehouse real estate of the Russian Federation in the 20-year history of observations was recorded - $1.2 billion, which is 60% more compared to 2020.^[7]

Rush growth in demand and price growth in the Moscow region

By August 2021, the rush demand for warehouses from retailers and distributors created tension in the logistics market. The industry has formed a "seller's market": not buyers, but developers "rule the ball," dictating their conditions to customers. The situation began to heat up in 2020, when retail companies increased sales during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the demand for warehouses in the capital region jumped by another 20%, while no more than 1.6% of free space remained on the market. Over the past 6 years, this is an absolute record.

In June 2020, the average rental rate jumped by 15% from 3.9 thousand rubles. up to 4.1-4.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. And the sale price of speech therapy in the Moscow region increased by 20%, reaching 60 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m against 50 thousand rubles. in January. In August 2021, according to Knight Frank, retailers, including e-commerce and traditional retail, together account for 59% of leased and purchased space, another 24% - for transport and distribution companies.

Developers of speech therapy are working at full speed, but they cannot cope with all orders. For this reason, some companies, including PNK Group and Ghelamco, have already frozen negotiations with potential tenants and buyers of warehouse complexes. The reason is the workload of construction capacity for the coming year against the background of high demand for such real estate.

A similar pattern is observed in other companies engaged in the construction and subsequent lease or sale of warehouse premises. Prices are so "hot" that negotiations with counterparties are constantly stalled, in search of a compromise between the developer and customers on the cost of transactions. According to the observation of industry participants, such an imbalance in supply and demand will continue in 2022.

2011: Knight Frank Report

Regional warehouse real estate markets in 2011. Part 1 (Knight Frank)

See also

• Commercial real estate (Russian market)

Notes