What to expect from 2024? Opinions of key players in the Russian IT market

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Development of import substitution projects

Many companies surveyed by TAdviser are confident that in 2024 the topic of import substitution will continue to develop actively. As one of the factors, players name the fact that 2024 is the final year for a large number of organizations before the ban on the use of foreign software comes into force.

We expect explosive growth in the enterprise software market due to the process of switching to domestic solutions in companies with state participation. We also expect an active increase in the number of pilot replacement projects by commercial enterprises, "says Pavel Goryansky, general director of Consyst Business Group (part of the Lanit group).

The main trend in the Russian market will be the search for solutions that can ensure the independence and security of business on the one hand, and will give opportunities for its rapid development, believes Evgeny Mineev, executive director of the Reksoft group. There will be fewer fantasy projects and more real ones, with increased attention from business leaders of companies to their implementation.

Russian companies will increase their competencies in a specialized industry software stack: both in terms of creating a base for these solutions and in terms of developing their functionality, so that architects, engineers, designers can work on domestic software as efficiently as they used to do in foreign, believes Anton Shmakov, technical director of Astra Group.

In general, the trend vector will be directed towards the active development of information technologies. In this regard, the trend of partnership, cooperation and consolidation of companies, work in the field of PACS and integrated solutions will increase, Anton Shmakov believes.

Jet Infosystems expects that in 2024 the demand for projects on integration into the corporate architecture of domestic solutions will increase, and instead of individual "islands" of import substitution, Russian products for key business tasks will be increasingly used comprehensively. This will shift the focus from R&D to stabilizing solutions and supporting them.

Maxim Melsitov, head of development at the Jet Infosystems software development and implementation directorate, says that in 2024, according to the company's forecasts, the key areas that will affect revenue will be data management, industrial solutions for production management, predictive and optimization analytics based on AI and ML.

Organizations of the financial segment, the public sector, telecom and IT companies will remain the main customers in the IT market and the influx from traditional market players will continue, expects Dmitry Kharitonov, first deputy general director of T1, general director of the Innotech group (part of the T1 holding). At the same time, in 2024, first of all, the demand for IT solutions is likely to increase from the real sector, industry, for example, the need for solutions for industrial automation will increase.

After the completion of the import substitution process for relatively simple IT products, in 2024, announcements of larger-scale projects with investments in "heavy" areas are possible: radio electronics, ERP, core technologies, etc., - said Dmitry Kharitonov.

On the one hand, the trend of migration of Russian business to domestic business will continue, on the software other, the ripening of systems in accordance with customer requests, according to "" Lanit Omni(part of the Lanit group). The functionality BPMCRM of various/will be aligned, and companies will choose platforms based on the level of service, additional features for integrating third-party applications, and the speed of launching new functionality. When choosing, the availability of innovative tools - technologies,, machine learning augmented reality things - will be taken into account Internet.

And Vladimir Lvov, Director for Strategic Development of the I-Teco Group of Companies, expects a real appearance of domestic iron producers on the Russian market in 2024.

We understand that now the moment has come when many Russian solutions have already shown themselves in direct work, and the companies that postponed import substitution are ready to return to it. The year will be tumultuous. According to Strategy Partners, by next year the volume of the domestic IT market will overcome the mark of 3.5 trillion rubles, and by 2030 it will reach 7 trillion rubles. We will continue to expand the distribution line with independent solutions: both in terms of software and IT equipment, - notes Olga Dorovskaya, vice president of OCS Distribution.

Focus on cybersecurity

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A number of companies surveyed by TAdviser indicate that in 2024 the trend that has been relevant for the past few years will continue - information security.

In 2024, companies will continue to suffer from regular cyber attacks, so information security and solutions that ensure data protection will become priorities for the IT sector, said Oksana Vorobyova, CEO of MTS Digital. It is likely that companies will also feel a high level of competition in the market in the struggle for qualified personnel in the field of cybersecurity.

If earlier companies pledged about 12% of the budget for cybersecurity, now this figure is growing regardless of the industry, "says Victoria Bukhar, commercial director of Lanit-Integration (part of the Lanit group).

At the same time, today the Russian information security market is the competition of several infrastructure ecosystems. A large number of players in the market are important and useful, but they all need to start negotiating the rules of interaction, says Valentin Krokhin, director of product development at Solar Group.

Strengthening state regulation of the market

Axoft Global CEO Vyacheslav Barkhatov believes that in 2024 the strengthening of state regulation of the market will continue. Thus, regulators, including Ministry of Digital Development, will even more actively look for a balance between platforming (for example, based on Gostekh) and maintaining a competitive environment.

There will be a tightening of regulatory requirements for the "origin" of Russian software: it is necessary to gradually get rid of clones of foreign software products that imitate technological independence, believes Sergey Trandin, general director of BASEALT.

We should expect an increase and tightening of the requirements of industry regulators and in the field of information security, as the level of cyber threats continues to grow. Companies will need to adapt to these changes by strengthening their security measures, said Andrey Efremov, director of business development at Kaspersky Lab.

Lev Matveev, Chairman of the Board of Directors of SearchInform, expects that the state understands the importance of the changes taking place in the IT industry and will not complicate the work of vendors. In particular, it will maintain a preferential income tax rate. If it is canceled, this will have an extremely negative impact on both the developers themselves and their customers. The same applies to other benefits for the IT industry.

It seems to me an excellent example of many foreign countries that understand that IT needs to be stimulated and create attractive conditions, "says Lev Matveev.

And Vladimir Belyaevsky, deputy director of the center for infrastructure solutions of Jet Infosystems, believes that the actions of regulators are the main intrigue of 2024: "The market is now making forecasts whether the requirements for the transition to domestic software will soften or tighten."

Platform Solutions

According to the general director of BASEALT Trandin, in 2024 the formation of platform solutions of two types will continue: for building an IT infrastructure based on Russian software and for developing programs. Platforms greatly facilitate the implementation of software products and their post-project support.

Sergey Artemov, Director of Corporate Communications and Mobility Platform Development at eXpress, among the digitalization trends in 2024, highlights the choice of technology platforms on which business will build processes. The platform allows you to scale up, attract investments, accelerate development, and gain new market opportunities.

The choice and verification of the "professional suitability" of technology platforms will definitely take several years, especially for companies over 1000 employees. They have already begun and will continue to study the experience of their colleagues and choose, - Sergei Artemov is sure.

Growing interest in AI

The growing interest in Russia in AI in general and in generative AI, in particular, is indicated by many of the market players surveyed by TAdviser and predicts the continuation of this trend in 2024.

In 2024, companies will continue to race for services in the field of artificial intelligence. One way or another, in 2024 this industry will be applicable not only in IT companies, but also in a variety of directions: speeding up job checks in the HR segment, selecting clothes using AI technologies, helping to study diseases, and so on, - expects the general director of MTS Digital Oksana Vorobyova.

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In the first half of 2023, the Russian IT market was seized by a wave of application of a new generative AI, the general director notes. "MyOffice" Pavel Kalyakin At the same time, a qualitatively stronger GPT-4 model also appeared in March, ChatGPT capable of writing valid code in many languages ​ ​ and very effectively integrating into automation scripts.

Also, since March, more and more high-quality open source models have begun to appear in the AI field, supporting, among other things, the Russian language. At the same time, the key Russian vendors - Sber and Yandex - have already released two generations of their AI solutions, which are comparable to open models functionally, but significantly exceed them in the quality of the Russian language.

In general, Russian companies are just beginning to test the practical use of new generative large language models, we expect a significant acceleration of this trend in 2024 and subsequent years, when information on the practical value of using AI in organizations will become more widespread, "Pavel Kalyakin told TAdviser.

Further development of artificial intelligence will be expressed in the growth in the number of developers and solutions, believes Axoft Global CEO Vyacheslav Barkhatov. Thus, the main focus will be shifted to its applied use in many industries, and especially in the field of information security.

The executive director of the Reksoft group believes that now there will be more and more attempts to apply generative tools and artificial intelligence to typical operations of companies to increase the operational efficiency of business processes. At the same time, companies will simultaneously experiment with these technologies and seriously recheck their effectiveness.

Other technology trends

SL Soft (Softline Group of Companies) sees that the trend towards "democratization of technologies" is gaining momentum: approaches to automating business processes are transforming. No-Code platforms are becoming increasingly widespread. Another trend is conditional hyperautomatization.

Companies are trying to automate as many processes as possible using intelligent technology, and thus increase productivity. Moreover, automation of routine tasks alone is no longer enough, large customers use intelligent automation platforms for complex end-to-end processes, "says Georgy Podbutsky, Commercial Director of SL Soft.

One of the key trends of the new year will be the development of its own and commercial data centers, says Victoria Bukhar, commercial director of Lanit-Integration. Already, many companies are eyeing new regions where they will begin to implement their plans.

And Sergey Andronov, director of the Jet Infosystems network solutions center, expects a large number of geodistributed solutions for data centers: "There are already whole strategies that will sooner or later turn into real projects related to the construction of geodistributed IT clusters for our customers."

In 2024, we will often talk about how to quickly make changes in the IT infrastructure and what requirements it must meet in order to work as quickly as possible. This will drag on the development of wireless technologies, including 5G. The question of the frequency range for such networks will remain open, - also notes Sergey Andronov.

In Proteus Technology, one of the main trends in 2024 is the transition of large Russian business from separate telecommunications systems to unified corporate communication platforms. The unification of all corporate communication channels - audio and video conferencing, telephony, infrastructure management and monitoring system is an important advantage of unified communications (UC), notes Maria Govorukhina, head of the commercial department of Proteus Technologies.

More mature solutions for online communications will appear on the Russian market, MTS Link is confident. Customer confidence in Russian solutions is gradually growing - they have already had time to verify the effectiveness and reliability of domestic software.

Our joint study with the think tank TAdviser showed that 42% of large Russian companies are considering introducing or replacing communications services in the next 12 months. In 100% of cases, Russian IT products are supposed to be implemented, - noted in MTS Link.

Another reorganization of the IT market

Among the most likely trends are increased competition in the Russian IT and information security market, as well as a more thorough attitude of customers to spending budgets, believes Axoft Global CEO Vyacheslav Barkhatov.

Of course, the process of absorbing young promising IT and information security companies by large players will continue, especially for developers of cybersecurity solutions, because the growth in the number and complexity of cyber attacks, including on critical infrastructure, is increasing exponentially from year to year, "added Vyacheslav Barkhatov.

We can expect another reorganization of the IT market, believes Olga Dorovskaya, vice president of OCS Distribution]]: a significant part of small companies that in 2022 saw a window of opportunity in parallel imports will inevitably leave the clearing. Two factors contribute to this. First, such players do not have financial stability and a big financial cushion. Secondly, customers do not want to deal with poor-quality service and supply in violation of obligations and return to large suppliers, confident in their experience and professionalism.

Normalize IT supply and demand

Jet Infosystems expects a gradual normalization of supply and demand in the IT services market. Since the middle of last year, new players and IT companies have entered the IT services market without experience in the service.

Many employees of the departed equipment and software manufacturers tried to stand out as independent companies by offering their services to the market. This often led to very favorable quotations for customers. After all, beginners need to enter the market and compete! And this is very useful for the market, - notes Anton Pavlenko, director of the directorate of computing complexes, service and outsourcing "Jet Infosystems."

However, the service business has its own specifics. Offering a low price in a competition with the hope that nothing will happen is not enough. Sooner or later, the equipment breaks, the software fails, the systems fall. It is at this moment that the very expensive controllers that "well, they won't break in a year" become so needed, and therefore were not taken into account in the price; rare examination of diagnostics; well-built escalation processes. So the same service begins, and this is a game for a long time.

Export revenue growth among developers

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At the beginning of 2024, a number of analysts cited estimates that access to the markets of neighboring countries, to friendly countries of the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia has not yet been able to compensate Russian IT developers for the losses from the closure of Western markets^[1]

Some Russian IT companies believe that the export situation should improve in 2024. So, for example, the general director of BASEALT Sergey Trandin believes that international cooperation between software developers will reach a qualitatively new level, the share of Russian software exports will increase.

From 2024-2025 the mass entry of domestic companies into the markets of friendly countries will begin, which will contribute to the creation of world-class IT solutions, and we already have them, - predicts Anton Shmakov, technical director of Astra Group.

For example, Kaspersky Lab plans serious growth in Russia and in a number of export markets. The company implements a program of regional expansion, qualitatively studies, analyzes and evaluates the markets of interest to it at the level of specific countries. The result of this work is that Kaspersky Lab sees that more accessible markets in terms of volume than previously thought are opening up new prospects. At the same time, the company also expects stabilization in difficult Western markets.

We are preparing several important products for global commercial launch, actively developing business in new IT segments for us, such as building distributed networks and network security, "says Andrey Efremov, Director of Business Development at Kaspersky Lab.

The trends outlined in the Russian IT market in 2023 will continue to influence it in 2024, and from communication with representatives of IT companies we can say that the majority look at the prospects for the new year for their business quite optimistically.

Earlier, TAdviser also interviewed IT players about the main results, trends of 2023 and preliminary results of the year by revenue. Read about this in the articles:

What did you remember 2023. Main results and trends. Opinions of key IT market players

Life after the "shock effect." Russian IT vendors note revenue growth, but more restrained than in 2022

Notes