Internet Traffic (Global Market)

Internet traffic (Russian market)

Main article: Internet traffic (Russian market)

2022: Half of the world's Internet traffic came from bots

In 2022, almost half of Internet traffic on a global scale was generated by bots. This is stated in a study by Imperva, the results of which were released on May 10, 2023.

According to estimates, in 2022, various automated systems accounted for 47.4% of the total amount of data transmitted on the Web. This is 5.1% more than the previous year. At the same time, the share of traffic generated by people decreased to 52.6% - this is the lowest figure in eight years (by the beginning of 2023).

Half of the world's Internet traffic in 2022 came from bots

The Imperva report talks about the continued growth in the flow of data from so-called "bad" bots, that is, automated tools that can be used to send spam, conduct DDoS attacks and organize other malicious campaigns. In 2022, the share of traffic from such systems amounted to 30.2%, which is 2.5% more compared to 2021. At the same time, bots that do not pose a threat to users increased the share of web traffic to 17.3% - plus 2.7% on an annualized basis.

The number of attacks with the seizure of accounts during 2022 increased by 155%, which was facilitated by the leakage of personal information. Approximately 17% of all attacks on application programming interfaces (APIs) were carried out by "bad" bots. Most often, attacks by automated systems were carried out on resources in the field of tourism (24.7%), retail (21%) and financial services (12.7%).

In terms of traffic generated by malicious bots, the leaders are gaming sites and applications (58.7%), as well as telecommunications sites (47.7%). Traffic of secure bots prevails on entertainment resources - 53.6%. It is noted that in 2022, approximately one in five malicious bots used Mobile Safari as their preferred browser.^[1]

2019: Internet traffic in the world is growing with smartphones. From computers to the Web go less and less

In February 2020, SimilarWeb, a company specializing in Internet traffic analysis, published a corresponding report for 2019. It says that people are less and less likely to go online through computers, preferring mobile devices.

According to experts, global mobile traffic in 2019 increased by 30.6% compared to 2017, and in the desktop segment it sank by 3.3%.

Comparison of Internet traffic on computers and mobile devices

As part of their research, analysts looked at the traffic of the 100 most popular sites in the world. The number of visits to such resources in 2019 amounted to about 223 billion per month, which is 8% more than a year earlier. Compared to 2017, the indicator increased by 11.8%.

The main traffic to the leading hundred sites falls on the United States, but if you look at per person, the United States is inferior to Canada, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Poland.

According to SimilarWeb, users spend less time on sites than before. Over the past 3 years, the duration of the visit has decreased by 49 seconds on mobile devices and PCs. On average, this value for sites by the end of 2019 was less than 12 minutes.

Monthly web traffic to 100 most popular sites

An important feature of mobile traffic is the time you visit the site. Time spent by a user on the site from a mobile phone is about 57% less than time spent on the site from a computer.

The report also states that increasingly from mobile devices they watch content for adults, visit dating sites and gaming sites like bookmakers. Computers continue to lead in some categories so far. It's finance, games and streaming.

In 2019, the traffic of news sites decreased by 5.3% and 7% compared to the results of one and two years ago and amounted to 4 billion visits per month.

Duration of browsing sites from mobile devices and computers

The growth of mobile traffic contributes to an increase in traffic to the most popular resources. In 2019, the top 10 sites were visited 167.5 billion times a month, which is 10.7% more than a year earlier. The remaining 90 sites from the top 100 had an increase of only 2.3%.

According to Kommersant, according to the results of a study of SimilarWeb statistics, the project of the Дневник.ру company (a resident of the Skolkovo innovation center) - the digital platform of the same name - at the end of 2019 took ninth place in the ranking of the most visited educational Internet resources in the world.

This is the only Russian platform in the top 10 world educational sites, but there are other Russian platforms in the ranking, for example, the School Portal of the Moscow Region, also developed by Дневник.ру, or Uchi.ru for interactive learning of school subjects.

Google's move to consolidate traffic into the main domain has increased traffic on the google.com site, and views  on YouTube have increased. 

Facebook's web traffic was down 8.6% over the year. According to experts, some of the traffic from the world's largest social network could go to YouTube, which indicates Facebook's increased attention to video content in recent years. However, Facebook's investment in the mobile business has helped the company increase the popularity of its other projects. Thus, Internet traffic on Instagram and WhatsApp grew by 74% on an annualized basis.

Categorize the top 10 sites

Yahoo, which lost 33.6% of its traffic in 2017, is also experiencing a downturn. Traffic on the Tumblr social network decreased by a third due to the ban on the site for adults.

Attendance on VKontakte from 2017 to 2019 fell by 39%. TikTok (social network) and Reddit are the fastest growing social networks. Reddit traffic is growing at virtually the same rate as TikTok.^[2]

2017

Nokia Bell Labs Forecast

According to Nokia Bell Labs forecasts, over the next five years, the volume of IP traffic will more than double and in 2022 will reach 330 exabytes per month. The annual growth rate of IP traffic will be 25%. Peak data rates will grow even faster, by almost 40% per year. Such rapid growth is the result of an almost insatiable appetite of users and companies seeking to receive more and more new services, including high-resolution video streams and recently virtual reality. To this is added another incentive: the emergence of high-speed networks with a low level of delay, capable of connecting people and physical devices with each other. Nokia Bell Labs expects this market to reach $100 billion by 2025 .

• The total volume of IP traffic by 2022 will grow to 330 exabytes per month. Its annual growth rate will be 25%, and the growth rate of peak traffic will be even higher - 39% per year.
• For the period from 2017 to 2022, the 3D/4K/UHD market volume will grow 4.79 times.
• For the period from 2017 to 2022, the volume of wireless traffic will grow 7.5 times.
• The number of IoT devices will grow from 12 billion in 2017 to 100 billion in 2025.
• According to Deloitte Global, 10 million DDoS attacks will be reported in 2017.

Cisco Forecast for 2021

The share of IoT applications in the world by 2021 will account for more than half of devices and connections

According to Cisco forecasts published in the Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast (Cisco VNI) report, global digital transformation from 2016 to 2021 will continue to significantly affect the requests and needs of IP networks. This is primarily indicated by: the projected increase in the number of Internet users (from 3.3 to 4.6 billion, i.e. 58% of the world population), an accelerated increase in the number of personal devices and machine-to-machine connections, an increase in the average speed of broadband access and an increase in video traffic. As expected, the global volume of IP traffic over the forecast period will grow threefold and by 2021 will reach 3.3 zettabytes (in 2016, the same figure was 1.2 zettabytes). ^[3]

For the first time in 12 years of forecasting, calculations have shown that the share of machine-to-machine connections that support applications Internet of Things Internet of Things(,) IoT will account for more than half of the total number of all devices and connections (27.1 billion) and 5% of global IP traffic by 2021. The main factors of such growth (from 5.8 to 13.7 billion, i.e. 2.4 times during the period under review) became IoT innovations regarding connected homes, connected, health care smart cars and, transport as well as a number of other next-generation machine-to-machine communication services., where Health care the introduction of connected applications such as communication with emergency services, health monitors and medical dispensers is expanding, will become the fastest growing vertical industry (an average annual increase of 30%). In second place in terms of growth rates are applications for connected cars and connected cities (an average annual increase of 29%).

In terms of share in the total flow of IP traffic and in terms of the total increase in Internet traffic, video will continue to dominate (80% of all Internet traffic by 2021, in 2016 this figure was 67%). By 2021, there will be about 1.9 billion Internet video users in the world (not counting those who use exclusively mobile communications), while in 2016 there were 1.4 billion of them. By 2021, 3 trillion minutes of video will be transmitted via the world Internet per month (equivalent to 5 million video years per month or 1 million video minutes per second).

The volume of such new services as live video broadcasting will grow 15 times, their share in the total volume of video traffic on the Internet by 2021 will reach 13%, consisting of streaming TV applications and live broadcasts of users on social networks. Not only direct streaming will shape the entertainment agenda: virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) services are gaining momentum. By 2021, VR/AR traffic will grow 20 times and account for 1% of the world's entertainment traffic.

Cisco VNI 2017 Report Highlights

1. For the period 2016 - 2021 the global volume of IP traffic will grow threefold.

• By 2021, the global volume of IP traffic will reach 278 exabytes per month (in 2016, the same figure was 96 exabytes). The annual volume of IP traffic by 2021 may reach 3.3 zettabytes.
• Internet traffic during peak hours is growing faster than average Internet traffic: over the period under review, it will grow 4.6 times (an average annual increase of 35%) and by 2021 will reach 4.3 Pbit/s. Average Internet traffic over the same period will grow 3.2 times (an average annual increase of 26%) and by 2021 will reach 717 Tbit/s.

2. Devices connected to Wi-Fi and mobile networks will generate 73% of Internet traffic by 2021.

• Distribution of Internet access in 2021: Wi-Fi - 53%, cellular communication - 20%, fixed communication - 27%.
• Distribution of Internet access in 2016: Wi-Fi - 52%, cellular communication - 10%, fixed communication - 38%.

3. The number of public Wi-Fi access points, including home ones, for the period 2016-2021. will grow 6 times, from 94 to 541.6 million.

• The number of home Wi-Fi access points in the world during this period will grow from 85 to 526.2 million.
• Leading countries in terms of the number of access points China : (170 million by 2021), (USA 86 million by 2021), (Japan 33 million by 2021), (30 France million by 2021).

4. By 2021, 56% of connected flat-panel TVs will support 4K resolution (in 2016 - 15%).

• The number of 4K TVs installed and operating will increase over the specified period from 85 to 663 million.

5. Home traffic associated with the rejection of traditional TV services will exceed the average home Internet traffic by 86%.

• The rejection of traditional TV services (Cord cutting) implies the increasing replacement of watching traditional on-air and subscription television with other services, such as mobile and online video, which are available to users through fixed and mobile Internet.
• "Failed households" on a global scale in 2017 generate 117 GBa per month, while ordinary Internet households - 63 GBa per month.

6. End-user Internet traffic moves closer to the border: by 2021, more than a third of traffic will not enter the backbone network.

• By 2021, 35% of Internet traffic in the world will be transmitted using the metro-to-metro scheme, in 2016 the share of such traffic was 22%.
• By 2021, 23% of Internet traffic will be transmitted on regional highways without entering federal trunk networks (in 2016, the share of such traffic was 20%).
• By 2021, 41% of Internet traffic in the world will pass along federal highways (in 2016 - 58%).

7. Global Enterprise SD-WAN Traffic

• The average annual traffic growth rate of software-defined wide area networks (SD-WAN) will be 44%, traditional WAN networks - 5%.
• SD-WAN traffic will increase sixfold over the forecast period and will account for 25% of the total WAN traffic by 2021.

8. The average volume of DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attacks is steadily growing, reaching 1.2 Gbps. This is enough to completely disconnect most organizations from the network.

• DDoS attacks paralyze networks, overwhelming servers and network devices with traffic from multiple IP sources.
• The peak size of attacks is growing by 60% per year and at the time of the attack can account for up to 18% of the country's total Internet traffic.
• The average size of a DDoS attack grew by 22%, roughly matching the annual growth rate of Internet traffic (29%).
• The number of DDoS attacks in the world in 2016 increased by 172%, and by 2021 it will grow 2.5 times, reaching 3.1 million.

IP traffic growth forecasts by region and country (2016 - 2021)

• Asia-Pacific: 107.7 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 26%, an increase of 3.2 times.
• North America: 85 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 20%, an increase of 2.5 times.
• Western Europe: 37.4 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 22%, an increase of 2.7 times.
• Central Europe: 17.1 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 22%, an increase of 2.75.
• Latin America: 12.9 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 21%, an increase of 2.6 times.
• Middle East and Africa: 15.5 exabytes per month, an average annual increase of 42%, an increase of 5.8 times.

Forecast for Russia

• In Russia, IP traffic for the period from 2016 to 2021 will double with a growth rate of 17%.
• Russian Internet traffic in 2021 will be 244 times the volume of the entire Russian Internet in 2005.
• Mobile data traffic will grow fivefold over the period under review, with an annual increase of 37%. Thus, mobile traffic in Russia over the same period will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic.
• Mobile traffic in 2016 accounted for 13% of all IP traffic, in 2021 this figure will be 28%.
• For the period 2016-2021. IP video traffic will triple, its annual increase will be 23%.
• The share of total video traffic (business plus consumers) in 2021 will account for 79% of all Internet traffic (in 2016 this figure was 61%). HD will account for 63% of video traffic, while Ultra HD will account for 12%.
• Gaming Internet traffic in 2021 will quadruple and account for 3% of consumer Internet traffic.
• In 2021, Russia will have 841.3 million network devices, or 6 devices per capita (in 2016 this figure was 3.6). Of all network devices, M2M modules will account for 57% in 2021.
• According to forecasts, by 2021, PCs will generate 24% of IP traffic (66% in 2016), TVs - 18%, smartphones 43% (17% in 2016), tablets - 7% (5% in 2016) and M2M modules - 7.7% of traffic (in 2016 - 1.9%).
• On average, the speed of a fixed broadband connection for the period 2016 - 2021 will increase 1.6 times, from 30.1 to 47.1 Mbps. The average mobile connection speed will triple and reach 15 Mbps by 2021. Over the period 2015-2016, the average speed of a fixed broadband connection increased by 6%.

2016: Cisco Forecast for 2015-2020

On June 8, 2016, Cisco announced the projected threefold growth of global IP traffic with an annual positive dynamics of 22%, by 2020^[4].

The number of Internet users worldwide will grow by 1 billion people by that time and will reach 4.1 ^[5].

Cisco Forecast Infographic, (2016)

The company's forecast notes a significant effect on traffic growth from global transformations related to digitalization, which are based on the spread of personal devices and the development of machine-to-machine communications (machine-to-machine M2M ,). During the period under review, 10 billion additional devices and connections will appear in world IP networks - their number will grow from 16.3 billion (2015) to 26.3 billion by 2020. By 2020, 3.4 devices and connections will be accounted for per inhabitant of the Earth (in 2015, this figure reached 2.2).

Video services and content transfer will remain the dominant applications. By 2020, the share of video in global Internet traffic will be 79% (in 2015 - 63%). By 2020, the world will broadcast three trillion minutes of video every month, the equivalent of five million years of video a month. Video transmission in HD and Ultra HD formats on the Internet by 2020 will account for 82% of all video traffic (in 2015 this figure reached 53%).

2013: Cisco Forecast for 2-2017

In a report by Cisco Global Cloud Index (2012-2017) ("Global Cloud Development Index from 2012 to 2017"), Cisco predicts (data from October 2013) that global cloud traffic, the fastest growing segment of traffic in data centers, will grow 4.5 times - from 1.2 zettabytes in 2012 to 5.3 zettabytes in 2017. At the same time, the average annual growth rate of this traffic will be 35 percent. Over the same period, the total volume of world traffic in data centers will triple and in 2017 will amount to 7.7 zettabytes.

Zettabyte is about one billion terabytes. Thus, 7.7 zettabytes are:

• 107 trillion hours of streaming music, i.e. a year and a half of continuous sound for everyone who will live on our planet in 2017;
• 19 trillion hours of business web conferences, or 14 hours of daily web conferences for every working person in 2017;
• 8 trillion hours of high-resolution online video streams, that is, about 2.5 hours of daily high-resolution video streams for everyone who will live on our planet 2017 year.

Approximately 17 percent of traffic in data centers will be generated by end users accessing web pages, streaming video, collaboration features and connected devices through the cloud, i.e., everything that constitutes the Comprehensive Internet (a network that connects people, data, processes, and physical objects).

The rest of the traffic in data centers will not be directly generated by end users, but will be created by the data centers themselves and the tasks associated with cloud computing. Between 2012 and 2017, Cisco forecasts that 7 percent of data center traffic will be generated by data center communications (primarily data replication, software upgrades, and system upgrades). Another 76 percent of traffic will not go beyond data centers and will be related to data storage, as well as the use of data in a virtual production and development environment.

The load on data centers will grow 2.3 times, cloud loads will increase 3.7 times

In 2012, 39 percent of workloads were in the cloud, and 61 percent of jobs were in traditional data centers.

In 2014, for the first time in history, more than half of workloads will fall on the cloud: 51 percent of all jobs will be processed in the cloud, and 49 percent in the traditional IT space. By 2017, 63 percent of work tasks will be performed in cloud data centers, and 37 percent - in traditional data centers.

The ratio of virtual server workloads to non-virtual server workloads, which was 6.5: 1 in 2012, will increase to 16.7: 1 by 2017. For comparison, the ratio of workloads on virtual servers installed in traditional data centers to workloads on non-virtual servers used there will increase from 1.7: 1 in 2012 to 2.3: 1 in 2017.

2012: Cisco Forecast 2011-2016

Cisco announced in early 2012 the results of the annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) (2011-2016) ("Network Technology Development Index from 2011 to 2016"). According to the forecast, by 2016 the annual volume of global IP traffic will be 1.3 zettabytes (one zettabyte is equal to sextillion bytes, or trillion gigabytes). At the same time, for the period from 2015 to 2016 alone, the projected increase in IP traffic will exceed 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to the volume of global IP traffic for 2011 (369 exabytes). Such a significant increase in traffic, rapid distribution and popularization of services are caused by a number of factors, including:

• Increase in the number of devices. The rapid growth of tablets, mobile phones and other smart devices, as well as machine-to-machine connections, is increasing the demand for network connections. By 2016, the number of network connections will be approximately 18.9 billion (that is, almost 2.5 connections per inhabitant of the Earth), compared with 10.3 billion in 2011.
• Growth in the number of Internet users. By 2016, the world will have about 3.4 billion internet users, which the UN predicts will account for about 45% of our planet's population.
• Growth of data transmission rate in broadband channels. The average speed of fixed broadband channels will increase fourfold - from 9 Mbps in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.
• Rise in video popularity. By 2016, so much video footage will be transmitted every second over the Internet that it would take 1.2 million minutes to view it, or 833 days (i.e. almost two and a half years).
• Increase in the number of Wi-Fi connections. By 2016, more than half of the world's Internet traffic will come from Wi-Fi connections.

The total volume of global IP traffic "in bytes" By 2016, the volume of global IP traffic can be 1.3 zettabytes per year, or 110 exabytes per month. This is almost four times more than in 2011 (about 31 exabytes per month). The average volume of global IP traffic in 2016 will grow to 150 petabytes per hour. This is enough to support daily simultaneous viewing of movies in high definition (1.2 Mbps) with an audience of 278 million people.

Regional trends in IP traffic growth By 2016, the Asia-Pacific region (40.5 exabytes per month) will become the main part of the world where IP traffic will be generated, which significantly exceeds the figures for North America following it (27.5 exabytes per month). The fastest growing regions in terms of IP traffic development in 2011-2016 will be the Middle East and Africa (with an annual growth of 58 percent and a total increase of 10 times) and Latin America (there the annual growth rate will be 49 percent, and the total traffic volume for this period will increase 7 times). The highest growth rates of IP traffic in a single country are expected in India - there, according to forecasts for the period from 2011 to 2016, the annual growth rate will be 62 percent. It is followed by Brazil and South Africa at an annual growth rate of 53 percent. By 2016, the bulk of Internet traffic will be generated in the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).

The main growth factor is user video The number of Internet video users is expected to grow to 1.5 billion by 2016. In 2011, there were 792 million.

Global growth in the number of devices As already mentioned, it is expected that by 2016 the number of network connections will be about 18.9 billion, i.e. almost 2.5 connections per inhabitant of the planet. In 2011, 94 percent of user Internet traffic was generated by personal computers. By 2016, their share will decrease to 81 percent due to an increase in the share of tablet computers, smartphones, etc. The increasing number and variety of such devices will determine the ways to access the Internet and the use of Internet resources by private and corporate users. By 2016, more than 6 percent of global consumer Internet traffic and 18 percent of video traffic (compared to 4 and 7 percent in 2011, respectively) will be received through connected television receivers. This clearly shows the growth in the number of users who will access the Internet using connected television receivers.

IPv6 connections and devices with its support According to the VNI forecast, in 2016 there will be 8 billion stationary and mobile access devices with IPv6 support worldwide. In 2011, there were about 1 billion. By 2016, the IPv6 protocol will be supported by 40 percent of stationary and mobile access devices (in 2011, this figure was 10 percent).

3DTV and HD (enhanced video playback capabilities) From 2011 to 2016, the global volume of the most modern types of video graphics, including three-dimensional television (3DTV) and high-definition television (HDTV), can grow 5 times.

Mobile broadband traffic From 2011 to 2016, the volume of global mobile traffic associated with data transmission will increase 18 times to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes per year).

Global File Sharing By 2016, peer-to-peer traffic is expected to account for 54 percent of global Internet user traffic associated with file sharing. In 2011, it was equal to 77 percent. However, in quantitative terms, the monthly volume of peer-to-peer traffic should increase from 4.6 exabytes in 2011 to 10 exabytes in 2016.

Global Enterprise IP Traffic From 2011 to 2016, the volume of corporate IP video conferencing will grow 6 times. The volume of this traffic will grow more than twice as fast as corporate IP traffic as a whole, and its average annual growth rate will be 42 percent.

Global Overview of Target User Segments and Service Distribution

Private users In 2011, the number of private Internet users worldwide was 1.7 billion. In 2016, the number of private users of fixed internet connections is projected to increase to 2.3 billion. Digital TV is expected to be the fastest growing service globally, with subscribers set to increase to 1.3 billion by 2016, up from 694 million in 2011. The most dynamically gaining popularity among private users Internet around the world will be the service: by VoIP 2016, the number of its users should increase to 928 million, compared with 560 million in 2011. At the global level, providing access to music files online will become the Internet service most actively implemented among private users. In 2011, its number of users was 1.1 billion (63 percent of the total number of private Internet users). By 2016, they are expected to increase to 1.8 billion (79 percent of the total number of private Internet users).

Mobile Access Device Users The number of mobile access device users worldwide is projected to increase from 3.7 billion in 2011 to 4.5 billion in 2016. Mobile video is expected to be the fastest growing service for users of mobile access devices, with the number of users of the service set to increase to 1.6 billion by 2016, up from 271 million in 2011. According to forecasts, SMS will become the most popular service among users of mobile access devices. In 2011, the number of its users was 2.8 billion (74 percent of the total number of users of mobile access devices), and by 2016 their number is expected to reach 4.1 billion (90 percent of the number of users of mobile access devices).

Corporate users The number of corporate Internet users worldwide is expected to increase from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion in 2016. According to forecasts, in the corporate segment, the popularity of video conferencing will grow most dynamically: by 2016, the number of its users should increase to 218.9 million, compared with 36.4 million in 2011. Globally, the most actively developing service for corporate users of mobile access devices will be a location-based service (LBS): the number of its users will increase from 27 million in 2011 to 158 million in 2016.

2009

Data from Telegeography

During the first half of 2009, international Internet traffic increased by 79% compared to the same period last year (data from Telegeography). This indicates an increase in the growth rate of data transmitted via the Network, since in 2008 the growth was only 61%.

According to researchers, in 2009, international Internet traffic more than doubled in emerging markets - mainly in Eastern Europe, South Asia and the Middle East. However, in more developed regions, there was also rapid growth - for example, in the USA and Canada it amounted to 59%.

Also, Telegeography experts write that, despite the economic crisis, Internet providers are investing heavily in building new networks to cope with the growing demands of users. For example, India's Tata Communications recently announced that it plans to increase the capacity of its 6,700-kilometer underwater cable.

Every year since 2007, ISPs have increased their network capacity by more than 60%. Last year alone, it was increased by 9.4 terabytes per second.

Cisco Forecast 2010-2014

By the end of 2010, video will become the main generator of Internet traffic, while the exchange of user traffic will move from first to second place. By 2014, the number of users of network video services will exceed 1 billion. According ^[6]

By 2014, the volume of global Internet traffic will more than quadruple and reach 767 exabytes, that is, it will exceed 3/4 of zettabytes. This is 100 exabytes more than the level predicted for 2013, and 10 times more than the total traffic in IP networks in 2008.

The main factor in the growth will be video - by 2014 its share in global user Internet traffic will exceed 91 percent. The expansion of network bandwidth and data transfer rates on the Internet, as well as the growing popularity of high definition television (HDTV) and surround television (3DTV) will be the most important factors in the quadruple growth of IP traffic that should occur between 2009 and 2014.

Total global IP traffic in bytes "'

For the period from 2009 to 2014, the volume of global IP traffic will grow 4.3 times and in 2014 will amount to 63.9 exabytes per month. (For comparison, in 2013 it will be approximately 56 exabytes per month). Thus, in 2014, the volume of global Internet traffic will reach a level of 766.8 exabytes, or almost 3/4 zettabytes per year. The monthly traffic volume projected for 2014 (almost 64 exabytes) is equal to 16 billion DVDs, or 21 trillion MP3 files, or 399 quadrillion text messages.

Regional Trends in IP Traffic Growth

By 2014, the main regions where IP traffic will be generated will be North America (19.0 exabytes per month), Asia-Pacific (17.4 exabytes per month), Western Europe (16.2 exabytes per month) and Japan (4.3 exabytes per month). Latin America will become the fastest growing regions in terms of IP traffic development in 2009-2014 (the annual growth rate will be 51 percent, and the total traffic volume over the specified period will increase by 7.9 times), Middle East and Africa (with an annual increase of 45 percent and an overall increase of 6.5 times) and Central Europe (average annual growth rate - 38 percent, total increase - 5.1 times).

The main growth factor - video

By 2014, the share of video of all types (TV, video on demand, Internet video, user exchange) in the total volume of world user traffic will exceed 91 percent. By the end of 2010, the volume of global video traffic will exceed the volume of user exchange (peer-to-peer), and for the first time in the last 10 years, user exchange will cease to be the largest type of Internet traffic. By the end of 2010, there will be more than one billion online video users worldwide. In 2014, it will take two years to view all video traffic transmitted over IP networks every second, and it will take 72 million years to view all video traffic transmitted over networks per year.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

From 2009 to 2014, the volume of the most modern types of video traffic, including volume traffic (3-D) and high-resolution traffic (HDTV), will grow 13 times. It is expected that by 2014 the share of 3-D traffic in the total volume of video traffic on the Internet will be 4 percent. By 2014, the combined volume of 3-D and HD video traffic will be 42 percent of the total volume of user video traffic on the Internet.

Global File Sharing

According to the forecast, by 2014, traffic associated with file sharing will amount to 11 exabytes per month. The average annual growth rate of this traffic for the period from 2009 to 2014 should be 22 percent. From 2009 to 2014, the volume of user traffic will grow by 16 percent annually, and the volume of traffic associated with the transfer of files over the Internet and other means will increase by 47 percent every year. By 2014, the share of global user traffic in the total volume of Internet traffic will decrease to 17 percent. That compares to 36 percent in 2009.

Global Business IP Traffic In 2014, the volume of global business IP traffic is projected at 7.7 exabytes per month. For the period from 2009 to 2014, it will triple. The traffic associated with business video conferencing should grow 10 times over the same period. Its growth rate will triple the total growth of corporate IP traffic and amount to 57 percent per year. The web conference segment will develop fastest: in this area, the volume of traffic from 2009 to 2014 will increase 180 times, and the average annual growth rate will be 183 percent.

Mobile Broadband Traffic

From 2009 to 2014, the volume of global mobile traffic associated with data transmission will increase 39 times and by 2014 will amount to 3.5 exabytes per month or more than 42 exabytes per year.

Comparison of consumer and corporate traffic

Consumer IP traffic will grow faster than corporate traffic. In 2009, consumer IP traffic was 79 percent of the total, and the share of corporate traffic was 21 percent. By 2014, the share of consumer IP traffic (including web surfing, instant messaging, user video, etc.) will increase to 87 percent. Corporate IP traffic (including e-mail, voice, Internet, web conferences and high-resolution video conferencing) will account for only 13 percent of monthly global IP traffic. Increased network speeds support increased IP traffic (2000 vs 2010)

In just ten years (from 2000 to 2010), the average speed of a home Internet connection increased 35 times, which made it possible to sharply expand the volume of Internet use. In 2000, the average speed in user access networks was 127 kbit/s. Currently, the average speed of a home internet connection is 4.4 Mbps.

Network Access Development

• Network task time in 2000 time in 2010
• Download a DVD-quality movie (4 GB) 3 day 2 hour
• Download MP3 audio file (3 MB) 3 minutes 5 seconds
• Download a file attached to an email message (1 MB) 1 minute 2 second

Notes