US economy
This is an article about the US economy. For the main article on the country, see US
How the wealthy of the United States
GDP
Main article: US GDP
Financial system
Federal Reserve System
Main article: US Federal Reserve, Fed (Federal Reserve System, Fed)
Modern monetary theory
Main article: Modern Monetary Theory (SDT)
The financial policy of the country corresponds to the Modern Monetary Theory (SDT).
Currency dollar and digital dollar
Main article: US Dollar
Non-financial debt
Non-financial debt consists of credit instruments issued by government agencies, households and businesses that are not included in the financial sector.
2022: Total non-financial debt 275% of GDP
National debt
Federal and state debt
Government bonds
- US government bonds (Treasurys) - who and how lends to the United States.
Money supply
2023
M2 cut by record 3% for the year
The volume of money supply (M2) USA in the last year by December 2023 decreased by 3%, which was a record 12th consecutive month of decline on an annualized basis. It comes after a record 40% rise in 2020-21.
Decrease in the money supply for 5 months in a row to $20.7 trillion
The money supply in the United States in April 2023 fell for the fifth month in a row, which is an unprecedented period. M2, which includes cash in circulation, as well as bank and money market accounts, fell 4.6% to $20.7 trillion. compared to the same month last year.
2022: Money supply M2 began to decline for the first time in years
In November 2022, the real money supply in the United States is declining at a record pace in history - minus 6.6% YoY compared to the previous anti-record in April 1980 (minus 6.5%).
But it is still very far from the complete disposal of the excess money supply formed during the period of monetary and fiscal madness 2020-2021. Compression should occur by another 13-14%, wrote the Spydell Finance channel.
The deviation of the real money supply from the 2010-2019 trend by September 2021 was over 25%, the last year the money supply has been declining in real terms.
There are two mechanisms for recycling - inflation and the forced withdrawal of the money supply from the economy/financial system.
Now the first mechanism (inflationary) is mainly operating, although the nominal money supply did not increase over the year (21.35 trillion in November 2022 compared to 21.35 trillion in November 2021), and compared to December 31, 2021, a reduction of 140 billion or 0.7%.
There are several reasons for such dynamics.
Firstly, the budget policy is the most stringent since mid-2008 in terms of the rate of withdrawal of money from the population (net state subsidies, as the difference between what the state distributed and withdrew from the economy regarding operations with the population).
Secondly, monetary doping has been disabled since March after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and there has been a gradual reduction in the Fed's balance sheet since June, which has an impact on the money market in the aggregate.
Thirdly, the record gap between inflation, bond rates and deposit rates leads to the transfer of cash flows from the money market to the bond market, since deposit rates are pressed to zero.
It is important to note that the expenses of the population and the money supply are out of sync in real terms. Usually, with a decrease in M2, spending also falls (according to the experience of the inflationary crisis of the 1970-80s), but now this is not happening.
The unsynchronization is due to the record pace of lending to the population and the record low rate of savings, as an attempt to compensate for lost income and inflationary absorption.
However, such a compensation mechanism has a very limited safety margin.
Inflation
Main article: US inflation
Budget
Main article: US Budget
US budget expenditures exceed revenues (the so-called budget deficit) since the late 60s of the XX century (since 1970, the US budget surplus has been recorded only 4 times - in 1998-2001).
Stock market
Main article: US stock market
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - stock index on the 30 largest companies USA
Banks
Main article: Banks in the United States
Lending in the United States
Main article: Lending in the United States
Household savings
Main article: Household savings in the United States
Remittances from the United States
U.S. Electronic Payment Systems
2020:58% of Internet users prefer cashless payment
Investments
2022: Investment in the digital economy bypasses all other sectors
The battle for sovereignty is the ability to shape trends in technology in the modern world as part of the transition from the fifth to the sixth technological order.
Leadership in the creation of innovative products (as the evolution of existing ones or on other architectural or even physical principles) can ensure the dominance of technology companies in capturing sales markets and shaping a regional and even global political agenda.
At least for the past 150 years, breakthrough business (if we take the United States and Europe), which is at the forefront of technological solutions, has acquired significance and subjectivity in the political elite. Resources, capital were concentrated under the breakthrough business, political decisions were pushed through.
At the beginning of the XIX century - these were metallurgists, at the end of the XIX century - oil companies, at the beginning of the XX century - the auto industry, then mechanical engineering and aviation, in the mid-1950s the nuclear and chemical industries played a dominant role, in the 1970s - the pharma industry was developed, in the 1980s microelectronics, in the 1990s software companies. In the 2020s, the greatest impetus is in AI and nanotechnology, combining IT and biotechnology.
The United States began to lose momentum in technological development from 2010 to 2017-2018, when in some areas the championship began to intercept China, especially in microelectronics, culminating in the political and trade bitterness of China and the United States in 2018 with a known series of scandals, including sanctions against Huawei.
Political bitterness is reflected in the costs of building technology in the US. The trajectory of confrontation with China has a correlation with the trend of increased spending on technology creation in the United States, where explosive growth was from 2017 to 2020. R&D spending GDP has relatively increased by a record 30% (there has not yet been a similar rate in US history).
Almost 15 years of stagnation (2000-2014) with the exponential development of China created a significant technological gap in favor of China (not everywhere and not in everything), but China reduced the lag. By 2023, the US is investing in technology in a way it has never before.
In the United States, technology investments by early 2023 exceeded all other investments (equipment, residential and commercial real estate). Technology investments include business spending on R&D, patent creation and purchase, intellectual property creation, and software spending.
The material world outside IT in the US is shrinking. A growing segment is the digital economy in all its diversity. The growing trend is not interrupted by crises, unlike sensitive and more mobile spending on equipment and infrastructure.
Once, technology investments exceeded all other investments in Q2 2020, but this time the trend is more stable and it is likely that for the first time in history technology investments will become dominant in the structure of investments in the United States.
Technologies outstripped commercial real estate (including factories and industrial structures) in Q1 2008, a year later exceeded residential real estate and no longer lost leadership, and the "last bastion" remained in the form of machines, equipment and components.
The category "equipment" includes all material means intended for the reproduction of capital - any type of vehicles for doing business, industrial machines, machines, equipment, computers and hundreds of other nomenclature of material means, with the exception of capital structures (they are included in commercial real estate).
If you single out computers, servers, components and everything related to electronics in a separate category and close with technologies, calling the category "IT and R&D," here is unconditional leadership by a clear margin.
While commercial and production equipment, with the exception of computers, has been stagnating since 2014.
Investment in infrastructure and commercial real estate at the minimum since the crisis of 2009. Residential real estate predictably collapsed to the level of 2015 amid a slowdown in construction by 25-30% and a collapse in home purchases by 35-40%.
You might think that there are manipulations with deflators, but investments in technology in nominal terms are at their maximum, the Spydell Finance channel noted.
Foreign investment
2023: Dependence on foreign investment: a continuous shortage of service stations since 1992
The deficit in the current operations account (STO) does not guarantee the weakening of the national currency, exactly, as the STO surplus does not guarantee the strength/strengthening of the national currency, since many factors affect the foreign exchange market.
The principles and factors of exchange rate formation are a very broad topic, but in the context of the SERVICE, it should be noted that the structure of cross-border capital flows is of particular importance.
For example, in the United States, the expected STO deficit is 3% of GDP in 2023, which is almost twice as much as the 5-6% deficit that was observed in 2004-2008.
A deficit of 3% of GDP means that net capital inflows should be by a comparable amount of 3% (the balance of the service station and the financial account is always zero, taking into account the operations of the CTR), i.e. the United States is structurally always a net borrower of international capital and is dependent on foreign investment. Since 1992, the United States has a continuous shortage of service stations.
In economically developed countries, the mechanism of capital deficit compensation is not used through the management of CTR with rare exceptions, so the deficit is closed by the private sector (direct, portfolio or other investments).
Direct investment, if the investor buys 10% or more of the company's share, i.e. mainly with the aim of influencing the business. These investments are inherently less fluid and longer-term than portfolio (mostly speculative) investments.
The STO deficit is covered either through the reduction of the CTR and/or through lending by the private sector, which in turn can be in the form of a net increase in external debt or in the form of repatriation of external assets (sales of foreign assets by residents are higher than purchases).
The STO deficit is always a dependence on external funding. Stable capital inflows can only be in conditions of free movement of capital, so any restrictions or expectations of restrictions within Capital Control always negatively affect cross-border capital flows.
The developed world has the highest liberalization of cross-border funding mechanisms and instruments, which makes it possible to level the WR factor and use cross-funding mechanisms.
Conditions under which companies and the financial sector lend to each other as part of the economic and financial interface on the principle of communicating vessels. For example, countries with a stable service station profile (Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Austria) lend to countries with a deficit of service stations (USA , Britain, France).
In other words, a friendly investment cluster is formed, where capital flows occur between conditionally "own," this is cross-funding.
Speaking of lending, we do not mean standard bank loans, but mainly investments in securities (shares and bonds). On the other hand, weaker chain links are handled by credits like,,, and Greece Romania. Hungary Portugal
The group of developing countries is mainly funded through bank lending, since the level of development of the financial system and low diversification does not imply investments in stocks and bonds.
The focus of investment flows is formed mainly from economic logic: the capacity, depth of the financial system, the prospects and level of diversification of the economy, the differential of interest rates, and so on.
The United States provides a complete list of parameters that form investment attractiveness - usually rates on bonds and monetary instruments in the dollar zone are higher than in any other currency zone among their "own."
If suddenly international capital flows are sluggish, the United States creates the necessary geopolitical and economic conditions so that investments in the dollar zone look more attractive than in any other currency zone. For all the time there has not been a single failure, the mechanism is still working like a watch.
From 2010 to 2023, the accumulated deficit of service stations in the United States amounted to $7.3 trillion, and the last three years an average of $850 billion per year. In second place in the world is Britain, which since 2010 has absorbed 1.5 trillion dollars of net international investment.
2018: Sharp decline in investment from China
Investment abroad
2021: U.S. investment in manufacturing assets in China
2020: Third largest investment in Africa
Foreign exchange reserves
Sovereign Wealth Fund
Businessmen
Business in the United States
Main article: Business in the United States
The richest people in the United States
Main article: The richest people in the United States
Bankruptcies
2023
U.S. bankruptcies up 18%
In the United States, the total number of bankruptcy applications, including commercial and personal insolvency, rose to 445,186 in 2023 from 378,390 in 2022. This is evidenced by the data of the Epiq AACER bankruptcy data provider, which were published in early January 2024.
According to Reuters, citing Epiq AACER materials, the number of bankruptcies in the United States in 2023 increased by 18% amid high interest rates, tightening lending standards and the continued outflow of support funds during the pandemic era, according to data published on Wednesday. At the same time, the volume of bankruptcy cases remains significantly lower than the level, before the start of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the news agency notes. In 2019, the United States recorded a record 757,816 bankruptcies.
The Epiq AACER report indicated that the number of business reorganisation and bankruptcy protection applications under Article 11 rose 72% to 6,569. The number of consumer applications rose 18% to 419,550.
 | We expect an increase in the number of consumers and commercial companies filing for bankruptcy protection in 2024, given the end of pandemic stimulus, high interest rates, growth in overdue loans and almost historic levels of household debt, said Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER. |  |
Financial conditions for businesses and households have tightened significantly over the past two years thanks to the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike to curb inflation, Reuters said in a January 4, 2023 publication. Household debt reached a record high of $17.3 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2023, according to the New York Federal Reserve.[1]
The rise of bankruptcies by 30%
USA After a decade of decline, the number of corporate bankruptcies in grew by 30% in the 12 months to September compared to a year ago. The reason is a failed attempt to put pressure on Russia through the conflict on. To Ukraine
2020:244 major companies file for bankruptcy
In 2020, many large American companies filed for bankruptcy, more than in any other year after the 2009 global financial crisis.
Companies working in power, retail and consumer services have filed a total of 244 applications, according to Bloomberg.
This is the largest number since 2009, when 293 US companies applied for protection from creditors.
According to analysts, an increase in the number of bankruptcy applications is expected in 2021.
Foreign trade
Main article: US Foreign Trade
Minerals
Oil and gas production, import and export
Main article: Production, import and export of oil and gas to the United States
Copper mining
Main article: Copper mining and production
2024: Plan to expand fossil controls in international waters
The U.S. claim to a section of the seabed rich in minerals is disputed by Russia and China because Washington has not ratified a treaty governing access to resources in international waters.
Chinese and Russian diplomats said in March 2024 that US claims to expanded sections of the seabed were unacceptable.
2022
Lithium reserves - 12 million tons
The "triangle" of South America and Mexico as of April 2022 accounts for 60% of the world's lithium deposits.
Exporter No. 6 coal in the world
12th in the world in uranium mining with 75 tons
2021: U.S. share of global rare earth mineral production - 15.4%
2018
2nd place in terms of mining volume
Among the top 10 countries in terms of silver production
Copper production - 1.2 million tons
2017: Gold reserves - 3,000 tonnes
Energy carriers
Energy consumption per capita
and
Gasoline price
Main article: Gasoline prices
2022: Rise and fall in price amid special operation in Ukraine
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose to a record $4.25 as of March 8, 2022, up 59 cents in just a week, according to the AAA. In California, where drivers pay some of the highest gasoline prices in the country, the average price jumped to $5.57.
That means refueling can cost up to $100 dollars or more.
2018
Transport
2023: In the United States, all domestic flights have been postponed due to a failure in the IT system
On January 11, 2023, massive delays and cancellations of flights began in the United States. The reason was a serious failure in the computer system of the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Read more here.
Power
Main article: Power in the United States
R&D
2023: Rivalry with China in R&D investment
Some conflicts are a priori intractable. The United States and China have never reached a consensus in trade disputes, they have not reached a consensus in political confrontation, because we are talking about global leadership, the Spydell Finance channel noted.
World leadership in the modern world is achieved through two main directions - the projection of the value system and technological development, which is the basis for financial and economic superiority and geopolitical dominance.
Socio-cultural expansion China into the Western world is impossible due to fundamentally different cultures and value systems, and the struggle for sales markets and technological superiority is possible.
The conflict between the United States and China is a multifaceted, complex complex of contradictions that lies in the plane of the battle for economic and trade leadership.
The winner is the one with the best technology. Not only in innovative industries at the junction of the fifth and sixth techno-structure, but even the advanced development of basic industries from the third and fourth technological structure is important and important.
For too long, the United States has parasitized its own success after a deafening victory in the Cold War with the USSR and a successful globalization project. During this time, China has significantly grown stronger and has acquired subjectivity in the formation of techno-trends.
In the mid-1990s, comprehensive spending on research and development by business and the state in all areas amounted to no more than $5 billion, compared with 200 billion in the United States.
In the early 2000s, China increased spending to 10-15 billion against 270 billion in the United States. By the world crisis of 2009, China spent about 75 billion on R&D, and the United States over 400 billion.
In 2015-2018, China's rapid and uncontrolled expansion began to create problems in the political and business elite of the United States, because they first realized the scale of China and the threat to US technological leadership.
By 2018, China's R&D was 300 billion, and in the United States $615 billion, in 2023 China almost doubled spending, and in the United States 877 billion.
The United States has significantly increased spending since 2017, but this is not enough. China's PPP-enabled R&D is far ahead of the US.
2022: China bypasses US in advanced technology research
In 2022, China came forward in the fight against the United States in the field of the emergence of new technologies. Chinese companies have taken the lead in 37 of 44 new technology industries. This was announced by the Strategic Policy Institute in Australia on March 2, 2023. Read more here
2020: R&D spending - $476.5 billion
2019: Second most patented in the world
At the end of April 2020, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) ranked countries by the number of new patents. In 2019, the United States accounted for 57,840 patents. Read more here.
Astronautics
Main article: Cosmonautics USA
Retail
2023: 3.3% decline in real retail sales
By April 14, 2023, retail sales in the USA last year increased by 1.5%, which is the lowest growth rate since May 2020 and significantly below the average historical level of 4.8%.
However, after adjusting for inflation, the situation becomes much worse. Real retail sales fell 3.3% over the past year, marking the 7th consecutive decline from last year.
The combination of wages not keeping up with inflation (a record 24 consecutive months) and higher interest rates (credit card rates hit a record high of 20%) is taking a toll. U.S. consumers are retreating.
2021
15.0% of total retail sales are online
Largest retail chains by state
2020: Retail sales slump during COVID-19 pandemic
In May 2020, the US Census Bureau published preliminary information on retail sales for April, where another historical decline is visible. Retail and catering sales fell 16.4% and that's after a decline of 8.3% in March. In general, sales in amounted to $403 billion, this is the lowest figure since August 2012, and inflation is not taken into account here.
But some market players, such as grocery and online stores, were not affected, but were even able to increase turnover.
2018: Retail dynamics since 2007
Industrial production
Main article: U.S. Industry
Tourism
2020:24 UNESCO-protected World Heritage Sites
2018: United States - among the top countries in terms of tourism revenue
Real estate
Main article: Real estate in the USA
Information Technology and Communications Markets
Car market
2021: Toyota takes 1st place in car sales in the USA for the first time in history
In 2021, Toyota for the first time in history took 1st place in car sales in the United States. US car giant General Motors has lost the title of best car seller in America for the first time in 90 years.
Toyota took first place, selling more than 2.3 million cars in 2021, increasing sales by 10%.
GM said its sales, down 13%, were hit by widespread semiconductor shortages that plague the entire auto industry.
2019
2.5 million cars produced
837 cars per 1000 people
Cars per 1,000 people (World Bank, June 2019):
- UNITED STATES: 837
- Australia: 747
- Italy: 695
- Canada: 670
- Japan: 591
- Germany: 589
- Britain: 579
- France: 569
- Malaysia: 433
- Russia: 373
- Brazil: 350
- Mexico: 297
- Saudi Arabia: 209
- Turkey: 199
- Iran: 178
- SOUTH AFRICA: 174
- China: 173
- Indonesia: 87
- Nigeria: 64
- India: 22
Agriculture
2022
Marijuana is the sixth most valuable agricultural crop in the United States
The legalization of marijuana in the United States led to the fact that in 2022 it entered the sixth place in the ranking of the main crops of the United States with a harvest of $5 billion. The leader - corn - has a noticeably higher result: 82.6 billion, but marijuana has a chance of reaching fifth place.
Compared to 2021, the cost of marijuana harvest in 2022 increased immediately by 24%. Marijuana has only been legalized in 23 states in the country this time.
Average level of state support for agriculture
2021: Share of farmland - 44%
2019: Average use of pesticides in agriculture
2018: USA world leader in horse count
The largest number of horses in 2018 is in the United States - 10, 26 million heads. The equestrian industry has a direct impact on the US economy of $39 billion, and the total impact is $102 billion, which determines the caused costs. In addition, the equestrian industry provides 1.4 million equivalent full-time jobs.
Light industry
2024: Cotton processing collapses to a low since 1885
Demand for cotton from US textile factories in 2023-2024 fell to a minimum since 1885.
American factories will process 1.74 million bales of cotton this year: USDA. The forecast shows that cotton consumption in factories will fall by almost 15% compared to last year.
Media market
Labour market
Main Article: U.S. Labor Market
Salaries and pensions in the United States
Poverty in the United States
2023
An increasing proportion of low-income Americans don't pay for housing and can't afford food
An increasing proportion of low-income Americans do not pay for housing and cannot afford food, adding to signs of a growing financial crisis in the economy.
Among households using increased pandemic benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, 42% missed meals in August 2023 and 55% ate less because they could not afford food, more than twice last year's figure, Propel Inc said in a report released on Wednesday. SNAP recipients tend to be households with incomes at or below the poverty line. In the survey of households receiving food benefits, 67% are in debt.
Most Americans do not have $400 to cover emergency costs
Most Americans don't have enough financial resources to cover an unexpected 400 without dollars going into debt, a new study released in May 2023 says.
These data indicate widespread financial instability, even in an economy where unemployment is at a 50-year low, and the erosion of the airbag that some households have created during the COVID-19 pandemic.
2019: 183,000 Americans die due to poverty
In mid-June 2023, specialists from the University of California at Riverside (UCR) published a report stating that the death of 183 thousand Americans aged 15 years and older in 2019 may be associated with poverty, defined as income below 50% of median income in the United States.
The researchers calculated the number of Americans living in poverty, taking as a basis funds below half of the average income in the United States, and compared them with the causes of deaths in various social strata. As it turned out, dying in poverty after 40 years is much more likely than dying as a result of suicide, gunshot wounds, murder, complications of obesity and diabetes mellitus, as well as substance overdose. It is noteworthy that the first 39 years, people from different walks of life have approximately the same mortality rate.
About 21% of Americans in the survey don't make enough money from their primary job to pay bills or maintain their family's standard of living, and 52% work multiple jobs to cope with daily living expenses. More women (24%) than men (18%) said they didn't make enough money to pay bills, while more men (57%) than women (49%) said they worked multiple jobs. The age cohort with the highest percentage of people doing more than one job is 35-44 years old, with 77% of respondents working multiple jobs.
The researchers found that the survival rate of poor people was about the same as that of wealthier people until they reached the age of 40, after which they died significantly more often than those with higher incomes and resources. Poverty as a risk factor could be considered the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S. after heart disease, cancer and smoking, according to the study.
The results of the UCR study show another way in which ethnic and racial minorities are disproportionately affected by inequality-related issues, as these groups are more likely to live in poverty than white people, experts say. In terms of age, race and gender, the poor of America are a heterogeneous group of people.
It is important to note that the main body of analyzed data dates back to the time before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a massive economic crisis around the world, waves of unemployment and housing problems. Now scientists hope that the study they conducted will help draw the attention of the American authorities to the problem of the "silent killer," revise social policy programs and eventually reduce deaths from poverty in the country.[2]
Jewelry Market
2021: Gold Jewelry World Market# 3
Alcohol market
2022: 2nd in the world in terms of beer production
2021: USA is the 2nd country in the world in terms of beer consumption
2019: Popularity of drinks in the US
2018: Minimum age to purchase alcoholic beverages
Consumption
Main article: Consumption in the United States
Skyscrapers
See also
Notes
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