Internet traffic (Russian market)

2023

Growth in Internet consumption by a quarter

At the end of 2023, the volume of Internet consumption in Russia increased by about 20-25% compared to the previous year, that is, increased by a quarter. Such data in mid-April 2024 is disclosed by Arelion.

According to Ministry of Digital Development of estimates, the volume of Russian Internet traffic in 2022 amounted to almost 124 Ebait. Thus, taking into account the published growth indicators in 2023, this value could reach 148-155 Ebait. For comparison: in 2012, the volume of Russian Internet traffic was estimated at 11.1 Ebait.

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According to the Vedomosti newspaper, referring to information received from the big four telecom operators and a number of online platforms, after blocking Instagram and Facebook services in Russia (owned by Meta, which is recognized as an extremist organization; activities on the territory of the Russian Federation are prohibited) Russians began to use Telegram and VK more actively. At the same time, the traffic of social networks blocked in Russia fell significantly, said Olga Makarova, director of the MTS commercial resource management department.

Piter-IX CEO Nikolai Metlyuk also confirms that in the current geopolitical situation, traffic has flowed from foreign services to Telegram. A certain part of it was directed through blocking bypass tools, but "it is not possible to measure this share and understand exactly what resources it was going to."

According to Elena Yakupova, VK's deputy vice president for infrastructure and applied services, in 2023 the company's traffic jumped 65% compared to 2022. The traffic of Russian Telegram users in 2023 increased by tens of percent. In particular, MegaFon's indicator rose by 80%, Tele2's - almost 100%, Beeline's - 1.5 times. In the MTS network, Telegram traffic increased on an annualized basis by 35%.^[1]

Plan to introduce a mandatory traffic tax

Internet companies that form the "main traffic on communication networks" in Russia should be obliged to conclude commercial agreements with providers to skip it, that is, to pay for the transmission of large amounts of data. This is stated in the "Strategy for the Development of the Communications Industry in the Russian Federation for 2024-2035," which was developed by the Ministry of Digital Development and the country's largest telecom operators. This document became known in May 2023.

As Kommersant"" writes with reference to this document, its authors propose not to extend the mandatory traffic tax to companies from the register of information dissemination organizers (ARI). These include the platforms Vkontakte"," Zen"" and Schoolmates"" (owned) VK , services "," Yandex as well as video hosting Rutube belonging to "." Gazprom Media Holding Thus YouTube , online cinemas may also fall under the new requirements.

The Ministry of Digital Development wants to introduce a mandatory traffic tax

The innovation may affect Russian online cinemas. However, market participants interviewed by the publication believe that the initiative is aimed primarily at receiving deductions from foreign services. These include Google platforms, including YouTube and a search engine, as well as the WhatsApp messenger (owned by Meta, whose activities in the Russian Federation are recognized as extremist and prohibited).

The idea of ​ ​ infrastructure fees from Internet companies never looked feasible, and with the departure of Netflix from Russia and the beginning of the bankruptcy of the Russian legal entity Google, "there were no new arguments in support of it," says Alexei Byrdin, general director of the Internet Video Association. In his opinion, attempts to obtain deductions from other companies that deploy their content delivery networks (CDN) on the infrastructure of operators will create a risk of severing cooperation.^[2]

2021: Growth in the total volume of fixed Internet traffic in Russia by 26% to 78.1 exabytes

The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics analyzed the indicators of the use of telecommunications infrastructure in Russia and assessed its level of demand in the context of a decrease in pandemic pressure, as well as readiness for development in difficult economic conditions. HSE shared the results of the analysis on June 24, 2022.

In 2021, the total volume of fixed Internet traffic reached 78.1 exabytes, an increase of 26% compared to 2022 (Chart 1). The rapid growth of the indicator in 2020 (+ 35%) and the decline in dynamics in 2021 repeats the picture of 2015-2016, when the increased demand for a fixed connection was then replaced by some weakening. Similarly, the pandemic did not lead to a prolonged intensive increase in fixed Internet traffic.

The growth rate of mobile network traffic in 2021 was slightly higher compared to the fixed (+ 31%), but the lowest in recent years. Their sharp decline in 2021, on the one hand, is a consequence of the dynamics of pandemic 2020, when the number of subscribers has significantly decreased, on the other, it indicates that a high level of user involvement in the mobile telecom infrastructure has been achieved. In addition, the increase in mobile Internet traffic in the context of the actual decrease in the subscriber base is the result of an increase in the specific volume of traffic per subscriber 1.

Fig. 1. Internet traffic dynamics

Despite the slowdown in the growth rate of Internet traffic, the dynamics of broadband Internet (broadband broadband access) distribution remains: in 2021, the number of subscribers to fixed broadband access increased by 2.2% (24 units per 100 people of the population), mobile - by 8.4% (108 units) (Chart 2).

Fig. 2. Broadband Internet Subscribers

In 2021, the share of subscribers with Internet access at a speed of more than 100 Mbps increased by 7.2 pp compared to the previous year and amounted to almost 50% (Chart 3). A slight increase in the indicator was recorded among users at a speed of 10-100 Mbps (+ 1.7 pp). At the same time, the shares of users of the slowest Internet (less than 10 Mbps) decreased in 2021 even more significantly than in 2020.

Fig. 3. Distribution of Fixed H Subscribers

by access speed and connection technologies (in% of the total number of subscribers of fixed broadband access; at the end of the year)]]

The prevalence of fixed broadband access technologies in 2021 increased: an increase in the share of users of fiber-optic communication networks by 3.4 pp made it possible to provide almost 86% of the country's population with the most reliable Internet.

At the same time, other connection technologies continue to fade into the background: the share of xDSL users decreased to 9%, other wired technologies - to 4%, cable modem - fluctuates at 1%.

In terms of mobile development voice communications , the number of mobile radiotelephone subscribers increased by 4% compared to 2020, but traffic volume decreased by 2% (462 billion minutes) (Chart 4).

Fig. 4. Mobile Radiotelephone Network Traffic Dynamics

In recent years, mobile voice traffic has hardly increased, especially compared to the seven percent increase in 2013, when the introduction of 4G technology began, and the nine percent increase in 2016. In 2021, it is declining, which may be caused by the gradual return of many workers from the online format and the weakening of coronavirus restrictions, reducing the need for telephone conversations and increasing the ability to communicate live.

{{quote 'author = said Christina Utyatina, a leading expert at the Center for Digital Economics Research at the Higher School of Economics. | In addition to the main indicators of the development of telecommunications infrastructure, it is important to note the economic conditions, in which the industry is developing in 2022. Despite the fact that Russian telecommunications companies managed to stock equipment at least until the beginning of 2023, delays in the supply of new equipment and long launch times for Russian analogues for 4G networks can slow down the development of advanced connection technologies and cause infrastructure failures, }}

2020: Ngenix: Analysis of web traffic trends for the second month of quarantine amid the COVID-19 pandemic

On June 3, 2020, NGENIX announced that it had analyzed web resource traffic in May 2020. NGENIX data for two months of quarantine announced due to the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate how users respond to a change in situation in light of self-isolation measures.

NGENIX analyzes how the average number of requests per second and the bandwidth of web resource data for the two months that Russians spent at home changed, and compares them with similar indicators in five main segments:

• Video services (TV channels, online cinemas, streaming platforms);
• Food retail (buying food on the Internet);
• Non-food retail (purchase of other goods on the Internet);
• Education (distance learning, access to educational content);
• Tourism and travel (booking air and rail tickets and tours on the Internet).

Two months of quarantine showed that web service owners have become much more difficult to predict traffic fluctuations: the average daily and average week patterns that existed before do not work on time for COVID-19. In May 2020, spikes in the number of appeals due news to self-isolation in some cases reached tens of percent, and in the case of broadcasting direct appeals from the President - even hundreds. - IT The directors and architects of popular web resources need to have ready-made scenarios for online infrastructure scaling. commented Konstantin Chumachenko, CEO of NGENIX

According to the company, the traffic of the web resources of the Education and Video Services segment repeats the trend of the self-isolation index: Russians, as in April 2020, watch videos online and engage in self-study. However, video service traffic at the end of May 2020 returns to the indicators of early February 2020 (4% lower), experiencing explosive growth in the first month of self-isolation, while the traffic of educational web resources, which has grown sharply since mid-March 2020, by the end of the second month of self-isolation, was 54% higher than in early February 2020. By the beginning of the self-isolation regime, traffic in the Food Retail segment grew by almost 80%, but at the end of May 2020 it already shows values ​ ​ almost 22% lower than in February 2020. The non-food retail segment experienced a shock at the time of the quarantine announcement, but within two months showed an increase of 18% by February 2020. The traffic of web services of the Tourism and Travel segment remains consistently low and has been falling since mid-March 2020 (44% lower than in early February 2020).

Analysis of traffic trends in key segments during the week after V.V. Putin's direct appeals showed how quarantine news affected web resource consumption:

• March 25, 2020. The first appeal with the announcement of "non-working week." Russians are starting to more actively order food delivery via the Internet and plan to spend time on self-education: these segments, respectively, showed an increase of 8.6 percentage points. and 16.4 percentage points.. Non-priority purchases and travel are postponed: these segments showed a drop of 10.9 percentage points over the week and 16.1 percentage points, respectively.
• April 2, 2020. Extension of the "non-working day regime" until the end of April 2020. All segments showed growth: over the week, the traffic of web resources of food retail increased by 28.2 percentage points, education - by 50.8 percentage points. Segments of non-food retail and tourism showed very weak growth by a fraction of percentage points. - obviously, consumers recognized the working conditions of the delivery of goods during the general quarantine and studied information about cancellations and returns of air/railway. tickets and tours.
• April 28, 2020. Extension of the "non-working day regime" until May 11, 2020. Citizens return to grocery stores: the traffic of web resources of the food retail segment fell by 36 percentage points. for the week. The traffic of educational resources decreased by 9.3 percentage points, which is mainly due to the May holidays. The remaining segments, with the exception of minor fluctuations, did not respond to the extension of quarantine.
• May 11, 2020. Announcement of the end of the "non-working day mode." News about the gradual lifting of restrictions as a whole slightly affected the trends in segment traffic: weekly changes in all segments did not exceed 10 percentage points. It is noteworthy that for the first time weak growth was shown by the Tourism and Travel segment - traffic increased by 7.2 percentage points. for the week.

For the second month of self-isolation, in terms of the number of requests per second, video service traffic showed a decrease - however, the general indicators are seriously affected by the broadcasts of the President's direct appeals on April 2, April 28 and May 11, 2020 - these days, the rates of requests per second are experiencing a sharp increase of 100-150% to average values. However, by the end of the second month of self-isolation, video service traffic indicators are returning to February 2020. This indicates rather a low impact of the seasonality factor in 2020 than a decrease in interest in video services - in May 2020, residents of the Russian Federation spent time at home to the same extent as in the winter months. As of May 31, 2020, video service traffic was 38 percentage points. below the figure of the end of April and 3% below the figure of the beginning of February 2020.

For online education services, the two-month quarantine has become an impetus for sharp and prolonged growth. In the second half of March 2020, traffic in the Education segment increased by 48% compared to the beginning of February 2020, and with the growth of the self-isolation index, it increased even more. The four-month maximum fell at the beginning of April 2020 - in the first week of quarantine, traffic in the Education segment was 115% higher than in early February 2020. The traffic trend of this segment accurately correlates with the self-isolation index, and the peaks of weekly activity during the "quarantine" months occur mainly on weekends, and not on weekdays, as before the self-isolation regime. In general, despite a decrease in traffic by 61 percentage points. in comparison with the beginning of quarantine, the traffic of educational resources in May 31 is 54% higher than four months before.

The peak of the popularity of food retail web services came at the beginning of the self-isolation regime: Russians tried to adapt to realities and start ordering products online. If we compare with the indicators of the beginning of February 2020, then a sharp (by 80% compared to the beginning of February 2020) surge in the number of requests to web resources of the Food Retail segment fell on the period from March 15 to April 27, 2020. Peaks of activity are noticeable on March 17 and 30, 2020 - residents of the Russian Federation began to test the shopping format against the background of news about the appearance of coronavirus and immediately after the announcement of a long regime of "non-working days." Nevertheless, after this growth, the segment showed a steady trend of traffic decline (by 101 pp relative to the beginning of quarantine): for Russians, going to the grocery store became an opportunity to leave home, and in May 2020, segment traffic returned to February 2020; in addition, many have already made up their usual grocery baskets and spend less time studying the assortment on the site. At the end of the month, segment traffic was already 22% lower than in early February 2020.

The announcement of quarantine in Russia caused uncertainty in the residents of the Russian Federation about the future, and they postponed non-priority purchases for later. During the last week of March and the first week of April 2020, traffic in the Non-Food Retail segment decreased sharply by more than 25% compared to the beginning of February 2020. By the indicators of February 2020, the segment's web resources returned only in the second half of April 2020, and in general, for the second month of self-isolation, the segment showed an increase compared to the February indicators: in the last week of May 2020, the growth compared to the beginning of February 2020 was 18% compared to the beginning of February and 36 pp since the beginning of quarantine.

The Tourism and Travel segment during the second month of quarantine is much lower than the period indicators "Before quarantine." Against the background of the lack of clear data on when tourism will "revive" and what restrictions await Russians during the traditional summer vacation season, segment traffic is 44% lower than in early February 2020 and 23 pp lower than in early April 2020, when it was announced the introduction of a self-isolation regime.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented conditions for web resources, and the overall trend for almost all five key segments is unpredictability. There is a shift in the average daily and average weekly peaks in traffic consumption.

2019: The average annual growth rate of Internet traffic in fixed-line networks over 9 years was 23.3%

The large-scale transition Russians remote work to caused a sharp increase in the volume of transmitted. information The Institute for Statistical Research economies and Knowledge HSE has studied to data assess the degree of readiness of the national infrastructure telecommunications for increased loads. This was announced on May 14, 2020 by the Higher School of Economics.

According to statistics, the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of russia Internet traffic consumed since 2010 has increased annually in both fixed and mobile networks. At the same time, in 2019 alone, the volume of information transmitted using fixed access to increased to the Internet by 20.3% compared to 2018, reaching 45.9 exabytes; The same indicator for mobile communications increased even more (15.3 exabytes) - by 51.1% (Chart 1). The average annual growth rate of Internet traffic in fixed-line networks for 2011-2019 amounted to 23.3%, mobile - 67.6%.

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Internet Traffic (Global Market)

Main article: Internet traffic (global market)

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