The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market

Main article: Artificial Intelligence

2024

How generative artificial intelligence takes orders from freelancers in Russia

Generative artificial intelligence (GENI), as it develops, creates more and more competition for freelancers in Russia. Many tasks traditionally performed by such workers can be partially or completely solved using neural networks. This is stated in the materials published in early October 2024.

As part of the study, according to the Vedomosti newspaper, data from approximately 1800 freelancers from six groups were analyzed: design, web development, programming, marketing, word processing and translation. In total, these employees completed more than 11 thousand orders during the year - six months before and six months after February 2023, when the popularity of ChatGPT in Russia peaked. It turned out that the active spread of Genia leads to a significant reduction in the number of orders from freelancers.

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Freepik

It is noted that Genia hit the segment of working with texts. In particular, translators six months after the appearance of ChatGPT, the average monthly number of orders decreased from 3.25 to 2.32. And for copywriters and editors, this figure decreased from 2.26 to 1.81. After the appearance of ChatGPT, the average monthly number of orders for Russian freelancers-designers decreased from 2.26 to 1.97. Moreover, the dynamics of the fall increases over time.

At the same time, freelancers working in the fields of web development, programming and marketing, as of the end of 2023, did not experience a noticeable negative impact from Genia. This is due to the fact that performing the corresponding tasks requires deeper knowledge and skills. In general, according to the survey, 70% of Russian freelancers believe that AI will have a positive effect on their work, and only 15% consider it as a competitor.^[1]

In Britain, they begin to dismiss civil servants and replace them with artificial intelligence

At the end of February 2024, it became known that the British government is actively testing systems based on artificial intelligence to replace employees of government departments. It is assumed that this will increase the efficiency of government structures and reduce costs. Read more here.

2023: Unemployment in US IT sector rises due to AI

In September 2023, the unemployment rate in the American IT sector increased to 4.3%. By comparison, the nationwide figure is 3.8%. Such data are given in the report of the US Department of Labor, published on October 6, 2023. Read more here.

2021

40% of Russian citizens have a negative attitude towards digitalization

40% of Russian citizens believe that digitalization negatively affects people's lives, and 11% are unequivocally confident in the negative impact. Such data are provided by Romir following the results of the study. This became known on December 7, 2021.

More than others, this opinion is shared by people of small cities with a population of up to 500 thousand people (42%), as well as people with unfinished higher education (48%).

Among the negative consequences of digitalization, residents of the country call the loss of personal borders (37%), unemployment caused by robotization (19%), a decrease in the level of education (18%), a decrease in live communication (13%) and a decrease in the level of culture (11%).

Youth under 24, being the "digital generation," speaks of the negative impact of technology even more often than Russians as a whole (45% vs 40%). Generation Z believes that the negative impact of digitalization is primarily to reduce the level of education (36%). Unlike the average Russian, young people are less likely to associate digitalization with the loss of personal borders and data security (18% vs 37%).

Most people with secondary and incomplete education (33%) are afraid of replacing humans with robots (and, as a result, unemployment). In general, in Russia, every fifth is of this opinion. In 2020, 20% of Russians assumed that robots would perform their work in the next five years.

President of the Romir research holding Andrei Milekhin notes that the company in 2020 studied the opinion of citizens of leading countries in relation to robotization. Russians in relation to this topic differ from earthlings in general.

Only 20% of Russians assumed that robots would do their work in the next five years. 29% of the inhabitants of the Earth agreed with this thesis. Most of those who allow robotization in their profession among residents of India (61%), Thailand (36%) and South Korea (34%). Thus, our compatriots see less "threats" for themselves in this matter. However, they understand that robotization is increasingly entering our lives, "said Andrei Milekhin. - In 2021, we looked at the attitude of Russians towards digitalization as a phenomenon. Of course, the higher a person's education, the more clearly he understands that innovation frees him from routine functions. Technology saves its resources, including its time. While less qualified groups are beginning to fear replacing them in workplaces with machines.

Milekhin also believes that concerns about violating personal borders and security can only escalate. It is important that a person sees technology as an opportunity to improve the quality of life, not a threat. For this, it is necessary to really correspond to digital solutions to the needs of earthlings and competent communication with a person is important.

Sergey Ivanov, director of product strategy for the T1 group, notes that people in general, including Russians, are inclined to evaluate not digitalization as such, but rather the degree of influence of its results on their privacy.

Digital technologies can add comfort, as, for example, food delivery, car sharing, MPSC, financial management do, and then the assessments will be strictly positive. If a person faces restrictions and control, the replacement of individual functions with automated solutions and a certain "de-anonymization," then digital technologies will be perceived as competition, threat or violation of personal boundaries. However, this assessment approach is only valid for communities with a high degree of individualization of consciousness. In societies where the interests of society prevail over private ones, as we see on the example of China, the picture may be completely different, "said Sergei Ivanov.

Ivan Samoilenko, Managing Partner of the B&C Agency Communications Agency, believes that the negative regarding digitalization at its initial stage is the expected phenomenon accompanying all the innovations that progress gives us. According to the expert, people are not used to digital technologies, see their disadvantages and do not fully understand what pros and cons digitalization brings with them - for example, the ability to get services information and (including education) without leaving home. Russia This follows the global trend, notes Ivan Samoilenko.

He emphasizes that the state is providing more and more opportunities for distance education with the receipt of state-issued documents, so young people who better perceive the new will be able to explain to their older relatives the advantages of new opportunities.

The fact that among the negative consequences of digitalization, residents of the country call the loss of personal borders, unemployment caused by robotization a decrease in the level of education, a decrease in live communication and a decrease in the level of culture, suggests that these areas are very relevant for the population. Citizens need to be educated and given relevant information about the advantages of digital services, their safety and reliability, as well as the fact that there will be no big damage to these areas for Russians, - said Ivan Samoilenko[2].

Maxim Oreshkin: By 2025, Russia will create 3 million jobs related to AI

On November 10, 2021, Assistant to the President of Russia Maxim Oreshkin said that by 2025 about 3 million new jobs related to artificial intelligence will be created in the country, and about 95 million in the world.

According to Oreshkin, Russia he is one of the leaders in the development of artificial intelligence, and in some areas, such as, the finance country is at the forefront.

It is important that these advanced positions maintain and accelerate the pace of introduction into the practical plane of artificial intelligence. We have everything for that. We have technology companies with our innovations, we have personnel, we have a scientific school, and we need to work to strengthen the movement forward in each of these areas, - said the presidential aide.

Maxim Oreshkin: by 2025, 3 million AI-related jobs will be created in Russia

He noted that artificial intelligence will be introduced more and more as the sectors of the Russian and global economies undergo the process of digital transformation.

Earlier in a report by the World Economic Forum, it was reported that the rapid introduction of technology and automation of business operations will lead to the loss of 85 million jobs in the 26 largest developed and developing countries by 2025. But at the same time, over the same period, about 97 million jobs may appear, more adapted to the new division of roles between people, machines and algorithms.

According to the head of Sberbank, German Gref, the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies leads to more job creation than to their reduction. However, he warned that people should be prepared to lose their jobs due to robotization and choose other professions.

According to forecasts of PwC analysts, by the beginning of 2030, about 38% of professions with a high degree of probability can be automated.^[3]

2019: According to 69% of companies, AI will help fight the shortage of information security personnel

On March 19, 2019, Trend Micro Incorporated, a cybersecurity solutions company, published the results of a survey on the shortage of qualified IB-personnel, which was attended by IT specialists from global companies. 69% of respondents believe that the use of artificial intelligence (AI) will help reduce the impact of the shortage of professionals on the quality of security.

In addition, 63% of respondents said they plan to use AI technologies to automate the processes of maintaining and ensuring security. At the same time, AI will not be able to close absolutely all the "gaps." For example, for tasks such as results analysis and overall security strategy management, qualified cybersecurity professionals are needed.

Among other things, respondents noted that the shortage of personnel forces them to expand training programs and use outsourced services to identify and prevent threats.

author '= Mikhail Kondrashin, CTO of Trend Micro in Russia and CIS The more complex information security threats become, the higher the bar for requirements for those who are called to protect their enterprise. More advanced protection tools often only exacerbate the problem of personnel hunger, revealing a shortage of staff with the skills necessary to effectively use modern security systems. This challenge requires a radical overhaul of the approach to creating protective equipment and provide AI mechanisms to simplify the work of the division.

In 2018, 64% of organizations felt the growth of cyber threats. Organizations have a common problem: IT security departments are not fully staffed and deal with a wide range of issues. And according to the study, Gartner a shortage of qualified safety professionals has become a persistent problem.

The demand for cybersecurity employees is expected to grow very rapidly and the market will face 1.5 million open vacancies by 2020.

With this in mind, to help businesses solve these problems, Trend Micro takes into account both the technological needs and the lack of specialists with the necessary skills and offers such solutions for detection and response in endpoints (EDR), which simplify problem detection and prioritization of threats, optimize the time and effort of internal teams. And such solutions are in increasing demand.

2018

Companies are mastering an AI system that does not allow personnel leakage

In September 2018, it became known that the Recruitment Holdings group of companies, specializing in the provision of comprehensive human resources services, began to master an AI system that helps prevent personnel leakage. Artificial intelligence identifies employees in advance with the intention of quitting and notifies the employer, which gives time to intervene in the situation and prevent the employee from leaving. Read more here.

Companies spend millions on sky-high salaries of AI specialists

Salaries of specialists in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) continue to grow to sky-high heights. This is evidenced by data from the tax return of OpenAI, a non-profit organization engaged in artificial intelligence research, which was founded in 2015 by Elon Musk together with several other investors.

As follows from the document, excerpts from which The New York Times cites, in 2016 OpenAI paid its chief AI guru Ilya Sutskever $1.9 million. Another leading researcher at the company, Ian Goodfellow, received more than $800 thousand, although he got a job at OpenAI only in March 2016. Both specialists come from Google. In addition, robotics engineer Pieter Abbeel, who previously worked at the University of California and moved to OpenAI only in June 2016, was paid $425 thousand. All specified amounts include bonuses received by employees at the time of signing the contract.

In general, in its first year of operation, OpenAI spent about $11 million, of which more than $7 million was spent on salaries and other types of remuneration to employees. In 2016, there were 52 people in the company.

The salaries of leading AI specialists soared to heaven due to an acute shortage of qualified personnel in this area. According to the independent Canadian AI laboratory Element AI, there are only about 22 thousand degree programmers in the world who are able to develop artificial intelligence systems.

The figures published by OpenAI give an idea of ​ ​ how much companies are willing to pay valuable AI personnel. At the same time, OpenAI is a non-profit organization, so its proposed salary level may not be the highest.

Employees of leading technology companies and people who received job offers from IT giants told the NYT that given incentives in the form of stock options, the remuneration of leading AI specialists is measured in several million. Even novice employees with zero or little practical experience in the field of artificial intelligence can count on an annual salary of $300 to $500 thousand, taking into account salaries and bonuses in the form of shares.

Wojciech Zaremba, who joined OpenAI after an internship at Google and Facebook, said in an interview with Wired that tech companies were offering him just crazy money. He did not give specific figures, but noted that the amounts were twice or even three times higher than its real market value as a specialist.

As another example illustrating the level of earnings of experts in the field of artificial intelligence technologies, such as neural networks, machine learning, etc., journalists cited the London DeepMind AI laboratory, owned by Google since 2014. According to the annual financial report of this company, in 2016, the cost of 400 employees of the company amounted to $138 million, that is, on average, for each employee, including research and other personnel, accounted for $345 thousand.

The sky-high salaries of some eminent AI specialists reflect not only the high level of their competence, but also the authority in their professional community, as well as the ability to attract other researchers.

By hiring "stars," you get at the same time and everyone they attract. You pay for fame and attention to these people, "says Chris Nicholson, CEO and co-founder of AI startup Skymind.[4]

There are few specialists, salaries are very high

On February 7, 2018, Montreal-based startup Element AI, which helps businesses develop and implement machine learning systems, released a report that only 22,000 degree programmers worldwide are capable of developing artificial intelligence systems. Of those, only 3,000 are looking for work. In contrast, at least 10,000 positions are open to applicants in the US alone, according to Element CEO Jean-François Gang.

Google Facebook,,,, and Apple Amazon Uber other big tech companies are willing to pay millions dollars to the world's leading AI professionals: these companies urgently need personnel to work on programs, face recognition digital assistants, and autopilot cars. Even specialists who have barely received a degree in machine learning and artificial intelligence can expect their salary to be more than $300,000. These personnel are needed not only by IT technology developers, but also banks by hedge funds, automakers and pharmaceutical companies.

There are only 22 thousand AI specialists in the world who have received a degree, but only 3 thousand are looking for work

Former head of Google's China division, Kai-Fu Lee, recommends not giving up such expensive workers. Superstars in the field of AI development Google pays a million dollars, and even if the company does not need specialists of this class, it is not worth saving on workers, otherwise they will easily find another place.

Designing AI systems requires a specialist to have serious knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, machine learning and even intuition. There are a variety of ways to assess the volume of potential personnel that help companies decide whether to rely on their own strength or better find a specialist on the side. In addition, such an analysis determines the average salary of an expert.

Element conducted a similar analysis, but the data they obtained are significantly different from other results presented in December 2017 by Tencent Holdings Ltd, a large Chinese IT company. According to a report by Tencent Holdings, there are between 200,000 and 300,000 specialists worldwide involved in the development or direct creation of AI. Element does not agree with this assessment and believes that Tencent has calculated personnel simply involved in AI development projects, but who do not have the experience to create new algorithms and applications from scratch. Element, however, acknowledges that its own methodology has its drawbacks.

Element results were obtained based on an analysis of the profiles of the professional social network LinkedIn by key phrases (automatic natural language processing, machine pattern recognition). In addition, the presence of a scientific degree and knowledge of the programming languages ​ ​ Python or Google TensorFlow, which underlie most AI programs, were taken into account. However, such a search excludes specialists who do not have a LinkedIn account, or who have experience in the field of AI, but have not received a scientific degree.

Despite these shortcomings, Element's analysis revealed a serious shortage of personnel. Governments and universities should spend more money on AI training, particularly at undergraduate and master's levels. At the current level of education, the influx of new experts in 3-4 years will fill the demand, and wages will begin to decline. However, most concerns are unwilling to wait that long. Intel, Facebook and Google offer their own internal training programs for AI specialists. And Google is even experimenting with automatic machine learning, in which AI can independently develop another AI.^[5]

2017

In Silicon Valley, AI experts are willing to pay millions

Many leading Silicon Valley-based IT companies have at least one AI project and are willing to pay experts millions to implement such technologies, The New York Times (NYT) wrote on October 22, 2017.

Astronomical salaries introduced in Silicon Valley even for a little experience in AI

The biggest tech companies are betting big on applying artificial intelligence in fields ranging from face-scanning smartphones and talking desktop gadgets to digital healthcare and autonomous cars. To implement such projects, companies are ready to pay salaries that are considered large even for the IT industry, in which they have never been embarrassed to pay well for the work of highly qualified specialists.

The newspaper interviewed 9 people working in large technology companies, or recently received job offers from them: specialists in the field of artificial intelligence, such as newly minted candidates of sciences or without a degree, but with experience of several years, receive an average of $300-500 thousand per year, including through options. All interlocutors of the publication agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity, fearing to harm the future career.

According to the NYT, experts known in the field of artificial intelligence for 4-5 years receive millions and tens of millions of dollars in money and options. And at the same time, they periodically raise the issue of revising the terms of labor contracts to the employer.

There are a number of reasons for such a situation with salaries. For the same specialists, the automotive industry competes with Silicon Valley, where active work is underway on autonomous cars. In addition, tech giants like Facebook and Google have impressive amounts of free money and think that they and artificial intelligence can solve a lot of promising tasks, such as creating digital assistants for smartphones and home gadgets and detecting prohibited content. There is also a lack of qualified personnel, so companies are trying to get a maximum of specialists for themselves.

Solving serious problems in the field of artificial intelligence is not akin to developing a "hit" application for. smartphone According to the independent Element AI laboratory, by October 2017, there are less than 10,000 specialists worldwide who can conduct serious research in the field of artificial intelligence.

When DeepMind employed 50 specialists in an artificial intelligence solution company, Google absorbed it in 2014 for $650 million. In 2016, according to a Google financial report, the corporation's personnel costs amounted to $138 million with a staff of 400 people. That is, about $345,000 for each employee.

Given such an acute shortage of specialists in the field of artificial intelligence, large technology companies are also trying to hire the best from the academic environment, thereby limiting the number of those who can grow new personnel in the field of artificial intelligence.

Uber in 2015 hired 40 Carnegie Mellon University employees working there on an artificial intelligence research program to work on the autonomous car project. Within a few years, four of the most prominent researchers in artificial intelligence left or attempted to leave their professorships at Stanford University.

To nurture engineers in the field of artificial intelligence, Google, Facebook and other companies conduct specialized trainings, the purpose of which is to train current employees in the methods of "deep training" and similar techniques.

Companies are trying to attract more specialists from Asia, Eastern Europe and other regions, where the cost of specialists is noticeably lower. For example, Google is actively recruiting developers from China.^[6]

5 dying professions in which technology will replace people

At the beginning of the 20th century, futurologists predicted that robots would displace humans from most professional fields. First, the mechanisms will master professions where work is carried out according to looped algorithms, and with the development of artificial intelligence, areas in which decisions are made based on the collection and analysis of information arrays will be captured. Despite bold forecasts and the growing pace of technological development, digitalization has not yet left any housewives, teachers, nannies, or even translators and residents without work.

See next 5 dying professions in which technology will replace people

Gartner: AI will create more jobs than it will kill

In early October 2017, the analytical company Gartner made a forecast for the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market. Experts believe that thanks to robots, more jobs will be created than eliminated. People themselves are very afraid of automation.

Starting in 2020, artificial intelligence will become the creator of new jobs in absolute terms, "said Peter Sondergaard, Executive Vice President and Global Director for Research at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, which was held in Orlando (Florida, USA) from October 1 to 5, 2017.

Gartner expects about 1.8 million jobs to be automated by 2020, as well as 2.3 million new positions for people to work on. Thus, the net increase in manpower will be about 500 thousand people.^[7]

Artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it kills, Gartner analysts predict

The extent of AI's impact on the personnel situation will depend on the industry: in some, net jobs will decline for several years, and in others - health care and education, for example - that number will never decline, analysts say.

They did not explain the methodology by which such a forecast was drawn up. The main assumption of experts is that artificial intelligence will rather not replace people, but will complement their professional activities, making it faster, more efficient and more productive.^[8]

Unfortunately, some people may lose their jobs due to artificial intelligence, but the real secret is that AI will increase the number of working populations, said Gartner Vice President Tina Nunno, who specializes in IT management research.

According to Peter Sondegaard, it is increasingly difficult for companies to find a highly qualified IT specialist, especially when it comes to cybersecurity and intelligent data processing professionals. Executives need to show more creativity in finding talent and opportunities that are hidden in their employees. In addition, they need to contact third-party firms more often to find experienced labor, look for talent in unconventional places and use artificial intelligence to improve staff performance.

The secret of digital technologies lies in analog. These are people. Think of artificial intelligence as scaling people... A person plus a car is smarter than they individually. The car elevates the person, and the person elevates the car, "Nunno said during her speech at the conference.

According to the researchers, "smart" machines are gradually turning into "super technology," they can perform a wide variety of types of work - both physical and intellectual. Cognitive opportunities software expand to many areas of intellectual activity, such as financial analytics, medical diagnostics, and data analysis of any kind.

Self-driving cars, nanny robots, automated hiring systems and other AI technologies are scaring people with mass layoffs. In October 2017, Pew Research published the results of a survey among Americans and found that 70% of the US population is afraid of automation and job losses. 

According to Gartner forecasts, by 2020, more than half of companies will spend more money on developing and implementing chatbots than on creating mobile software.

The UN warns that if society does not have time to adapt to new technologies, then artificial intelligence will disrupt stability and lead to unpredictable economic and political consequences.

Alexey Kudrin: Russia in 6 years can reduce the number of officials by a third

With the help of digitalization of public administration systems in Russia in 6 years, they will be able to reduce the number of officials by a third and reduce public administration costs by 0.3% of GDP. This was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation Kudrin Alexei.

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation Alexei Kudrin, it is possible to optimize public administration in the country in 6 years by introducing digitalization of such systems, which would reduce the number of officials by a third, and reduce public administration costs by 0.3% of GDP.

Dmitry Medvedev: Whole professions will die

Technological transformation in Russia can lead not only to an explosive increase in labor productivity, but also to "kill" entire professions and increase the risks of income polarization. This opinion was expressed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in his speech at the plenary session of the forum "Financial System of a Competitive Economy of the 21st Century: Challenges and Solutions."

"I mean transformation primarily on the basis of the digital economy," he added^[9] the ^[10].

He did not give a specific list of professions.

"You need to understand that the'figure' is both in our country and around the world, of course, this is not only a colossal breakthrough, but also a set of challenges, which is clearly seen in the example of the same financial sector," Medvedev said. - Distributed registry (blockchain) technologies - and cryptocurrencies, and so-called smart contracts - on the one hand, expand market opportunities. On the other hand, the lack of general rules for using these tools poses threats to markets. "

According to the official, this was the reason that today the largest global banks are already agreeing on joint work in this area. "The Russian banking community is also starting to develop its own approaches here," the head of government added.

McKinsey: Half of jobs could be replaced by computers and robots

According to research by McKinsey analysts, automation will be most active in China, India and Russia: about 50% of workers in these countries may lose their jobs in the near future.

In March 2017, the McKinsey Global Institute published a research report on the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market.

Experts estimate that nearly half of jobs could be replaced by computers or robots. However, full automation can only be talked about in relation to less than 5% of specialties, and in other cases only a partial replacement of a person is possible.

Most of all, artificial intelligence threatens people engaged in physical labor, as well as data collection and processing. Those jobs cover manufacturing, hotel and restaurant services, retail, which by March 2017 accounted for about 51% of the American population's employment.

Artificial intelligence will replace half of labor

The McKinsey Global Institute report says that by 2055, about half of human work activities will be able to perform machines with the same or higher efficiency. It is possible to achieve such a level of automation earlier or later - everything will depend on factors such as the development of artificial intelligence and changes in the economic climate, experts say.

It's hard to tell if it's good or bad. Obviously, more automated jobs will reduce people's ability to feed themselves and their family, says McKinsey analyst Michael Wright. - Robots disrupt the system that supports our infrastructure. They don't pay property taxes, they don't help fund public schools.

Microsoft founder Bill Gates proposed to solve this problem by taxing the work of robots. Michael Wright supports the idea.

The McKinsey study notes that artificial intelligence helps companies improve performance by reducing errors, improving quality and speed of work, and achieving results beyond people's control. Automation is also able to increase productivity - by 0.8-1.4% annually for decades, contributing to economic growth and helping to offset the decline in the working-age population in many countries, researchers say.^[11]

See also

• How robots replace humans

Notes