Technological innovation

Schumpeter's Theory of Waves of Innovation

According to the theory of the Austrian economist Schumpeter, innovation comes into our lives in waves. The first wave began in 1785 and lasted 60 years. This time was marked by the use of water energy and the rapid development of metallurgy.

In 2020, the fifth wave of innovation has ended and the world is on the verge of a new one, based on artificial intelligence, drones and environmentally friendly technologies.

According to Schumpeter, each wave is 5 years shorter than the previous one. The current one will last 25 years, the next - 20, 15, 10 and 5.

Innovation in Information Technology

White Paper: Global IT Market Trends

Innovations in communication technologies

Main article: Trends in global telecom

Innovations in medicine

Main article: Innovations in medicine

Chronicle

2024:10 breakthrough technologies to change lives in 2024 named

On January 8, 2024, MIT Technology Review magazine, owned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled an annual ranking of 10 breakthrough technologies that are expected to have a significant impact on the daily lives and work activities of people around the world. The list includes important technological advances in the field of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, computing, consumer products, etc.

Artificial intelligence for everything

It is noted that 2023 was the year of artificial intelligence. Generative services such as ChatGPT became widespread in record time and changed the direction of development of many segments of the global IT industry. MIT Technology Review says that never before has such a radical new technology turned from an experimental prototype into a consumer product so quickly and on such a scale. In 2024, the development of AI services will continue at a rapid pace: they will be actively implemented in both the commercial and consumer sectors.

2023 was the year of artificial intelligence

Super efficient solar cells

Panels combining traditional silicon with the latest perovskites could take solar cell efficiency to the next level. Perovskites absorb waves of light other than those absorbed by silicon elements. As a result, the overall efficiency of the panels is significantly increased.

Apple Vision Pro

In 2024, Apple begins selling the Vision Pro - its first mixed-reality headset. The company calls this gadget "the most advanced consumer electronics device ever created." It is expected that the novelty will allow you to rethink how people communicate and explore the surrounding space.

Weight Loss Products

The World Health Organization has called the global rise in obesity an epidemic. Drugs such as Munjaro and Vegovi will help to effectively combat this ailment. Evidence suggests they may even protect against heart attacks and strokes.

Geothermal energy

In 2024, according to MIT Technology Review, the introduction of new technologies in the field of geothermal power will continue. Advanced drilling techniques will allow systems to be deployed where this was not possible before. As a result, the production of clean energy will increase.

Chipplets

Processor manufacturers are faced with increasing difficulties in increasing the density of the basic elements of integrated circuits - transistors. The solution to the problem is the use of chiplets, that is, mini-chips that are assembled in a single case to form a complex product. In 2024, it is expected that this approach will continue to be actively used by developers.

CRISPR-based therapy

At the end of 2023, the UK was the first in the world to approve therapy using the CRISPR gene editing system. The new drug is designed to treat sickle cell disease and β-thalassemia. In the future, this approach is expected to effectively combat severe diseases.

Processor Manufacturers Face Increasing Difficulties in Increasing Core Density

Exaflops computers

In 2024, the commissioning of new super-powered supercomputers is expected, whose performance is at exaflops level - quintillion of floating point operations per second. In particular, the construction of one of these complexes begins in Europe: a system called Jupiter will be located at the Juelich Research Center (FZJ) in Germany.

Heat pumps

Such systems can both cool and heat buildings, and their wider adoption can significantly reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere.

Alternatives to Twitter

After Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022 and renamed the service X, millions of users around the world began looking for alternatives. Decentralized systems are one option.^[1]

2021: Leaders in investment in high-tech companies named

The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics on August 3, 2022 shared the results of a study with TAdviser, during which he assessed the scale of investment activity in the high tech and compared them with the contribution of countries to the global pool of leading organizations and personalities in the field of science, technology and creative industries.

In terms of total investments in high-tech companies in 2021, they are in first place USA ($353.8 billion), followed by (China 91.3), (Great Britain 54.9), (India 41.7) and (Australia 25.5). Collectively, companies from these five countries account for 72.9% of investments; at the same time, the United States is the largest share (45.4%). The second is China (11.7%). Russia is in 38th place with an investment of $0.8 billion (only high-tech companies registered in the Russian Federation are taken into account in the calculations) (Fig. 1).

The countries leading in terms of investment in high-tech companies are named
Diagram: ISIEZ HSE

HSE ISIEZ researchers have identified a clear link between the scale financings and presence of both innovative companies and leading organizations and personalities in the field of science and creative industries (Figure 2). Thus, the top 5 countries in terms of investment in high-tech (USA, China, Great Britain, India, Australia) account for 60.4% of companies with the highest research and development costs, 78.9% of unicorn companies, 65.9% of highly cited scientists, 64.8% of laureates Nobel and Fields awards, 46% of creative industry leaders.

Chart: HSE ISIEZ

At the same time, in a number of countries, the number of leaders in the knowledge economy exceeds the volume of investments, among them: Taiwan and Japan - in part of the largest innovative companies; Russia, France and Switzerland - in terms of Nobel and Fields Prize winners; Russia, France and Italy - in terms of the leaders of creative industries, China - in terms of the largest innovative companies and unicorns.

As for Russia, the talents (demand) in the country so far outweigh the financial capabilities (supply). Russia ranks 7th in the world in terms of the number of living Nobel and Fields Prize winners, 18th in terms of creative industry leaders and 35th in highly cited scientists. Data from various studies show that the possible weak point of Russia is large corporate systems that can find, disclose and monetize technical and creative talents, provide them with competitive conditions for self-realization.

The volume of investments is calculated on the basis of international. databases Crunchbase 133 countries fell into the orbit of the study, which accounted for 98.4% of all transactions in the high-tech market.^[2]

2020:10 technologies with the potential to change the future named

At the end of February 2020, MIT Technology Review magazine published a list of ten technologies that in the coming years will be able to change the future.

1. Secure Internet

The Internet based on quantum technologies should provide secure communication. The Delft University of Technology team is already building a network connecting four cities in the Netherlands that simply cannot be hacked. Scientists have learned to transmit pairs of photons over fiber-optic cables in such a way as to fully protect the information encoded in them. The Chinese team used the technology to build a 2,000 km network backbone between Beijing and Shanghai, but the project uses in part classical components that periodically disrupt quantum connectivity and pose a risk of hacking.

New classes of drugs can be adapted to human genes, and such means will give hope to people with very rare and previously incurable diseases caused by various DNA mutations

2. Hyperpersonalized medicine

Hyperpersonalized medicine is genetic interventions designed for a single patient. New classes of drugs can be adapted to human genes, and such means will give hope to people with very rare and previously incurable diseases caused by various DNA mutations. Unfortunately, it is not yet clear who will be able to finance such research and development.

3. Digital money

The less ordinary cash is used, the fewer transactions occur without intermediaries. Meanwhile, digital currency technology could shake the global financial system. For example, Chinese leaders see the threat that to cryptocurrency Libra they are preparing to release - Facebook its release can increase the already disproportionate impact on the USA global financial system. Perhaps in response China it will promote the digital yuan internationally, but one way or another, the release of cryptocurrencies becomes a geopolitical event.

4. Anti-aging drugs

The first anti-aging drugs, called senolytics, have already begun to be evaluated in humans. These drugs do not yet allow life to be extended, but can potentially cure certain diseases, including cancer, heart disease and dementia, slowing or reversing fundamental aging processes. These drugs destroy cells that accumulate with age -- they create low-level inflammation that suppresses normal cellular repair mechanisms and creates a toxic environment for neighboring cells. The results of the first clinical trials are expected in the second half of 2020.

5. Drugs discovered by AI

Bringing a new drug to the market costs an average of about $2.5 billion. One of the reasons for this cost is the difficulty of finding promising molecules. However, machine learning tools can now investigate large databases of existing molecules and their properties, using the information obtained to assess the potential drug capabilities. This approach can significantly speed up and reduce the cost of finding new drug candidates.

6. Satellite Mega Constellations

Now corporations can create, launch and operate tens of thousands of satellites in orbit at affordable prices at the same time. The first 120 satellites Starlink were launched in 2019, and the company plans to launch batches of 60 satellites every two weeks starting in January 2020. OneWeb will launch more than 30 satellites at the end of 2020. If these plans succeed, soon thousands of satellites in tandem will be able to provide access to Internet even the poorest and most remote corners of the planet. However, the collision of several satellites can lead to a serious catastrophe and turn the orbit around the Earth into a landfill.

Now corporations can create, launch and operate tens of thousands of satellites in orbit at affordable prices at the same time

7. Quantum supremacy

Google has provided the first proof that a quantum computer is superior to a classical computer. Thus, in the future, quantum computers will be able to solve problems that no classical machine can cope with, for example, hacking modern cryptographic codes or modeling the exact behavior of molecules in order to identify new drugs and materials.

However, Google has only proved true to the concept, now the company's goal is to assemble machines with enough qubits to solve useful problems. This is a difficult task, because the more qubits you have, the more difficult it is to maintain their quantum state.

8. Small-volume AI

In search of more powerful algorithms, researchers are using increasing amounts of data and computing power, as well as relying on centralized cloud services. This limits the speed and privacy of AI applications. However, when using new generation AI chips, devices no longer need to transfer information to the cloud. The researchers promise to increase processing power under limited physical parameters, as well as train and run AI with much less energy.

In search of more powerful algorithms, researchers are using increasing amounts of data and computing power, as well as relying on centralized cloud services

9. Differential privacy

Differential privacy is a mathematical method that ensures the privacy of a set of anonymized data by adding "noise." This method is already used by Apple and Facebook to collect aggregate data without identifying specific users. This method allows point-by-point "distortion" of individual data so that it cannot be associated with a particular person, but allows you to save the general group indicators necessary for statistical calculations.

10. Attribution of climate change

Obtaining detailed satellite data allows researchers to study natural systems, and increasing processing power means they can create more highly accurate simulations and conduct many more virtual experiments. Recently, researchers confirmed the role of climate change in the development of extreme weather and are now ready to talk about the risks that humanity may face with global warming.^[3]

2012: CRISPR and gene editing

CRISPR and gene editing (2012). Breakthrough in genetics and biotechnology.

2008: Artificial protein synthesis

Artificial protein synthesis (2000s). Distribution 2010-present. Perspectives in biotechnology and materials science.

1959-2000

1959 - Nanotechnology

1961 - The first man in space (Russia)

1973 - Genetic Engineering

1977 - Renewable energy (1970s) Distribution since 2000. Sustainable energy sources, reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

1978 - Biotechnology and genetic engineering (1970s). Distribution since 1990. Breakthroughs in medicine, agriculture, pharmaceuticals.

1984 - String Theory

1987 - Nanotechnology (1980s). Distribution since 2000 Create materials with unique properties.

1988 - 3D printing (1980s). Distribution since 2010. New production and design methods.

1996 - Mammal Cloning

2000 - Human genome

1957: Space Technology

Space Technology (1957) - Development in 1960-1990 expanded understanding of space, satellite communications, and navigation.

1938-1953

1938 - Nuclear fission (Germany)

1947 - Nuclear Power (Russia )

1953 - Structure of DNA

1915: General relativity

1915 - General relativity

1907: Plastics

1907 - Plastics. Development in 1930-1970 fundamental impact on almost all types of physical production.

1905

1905 - Special relativity

1902: Aviation

1902 - Aviation (biplane glider). Distribution in 1930-1970 broke new ground in passenger and freight traffic.

1903 - Chaos Theory

1905 - Special relativity

1896: Radioactivity

1896 - Radioactivity

1885: Automobile

1885 - Gas powered car. The distribution of cars 1910-1950 transformed transportation, urban planning and lifestyle.

1860-1869: Electricity, dynamite, Mendeleev table

1860 - Carbon filament lamp. The introduction of electricity took place in the 1870s, active expansion from 1880 to 1930. It revolutionized production, the beginning of the industrialization stage, the impact on transport, lighting and communications. One of the most significant implementations in human history.

1867 - Dynamite (Sweden)

1869 - Periodic table of Mendeleev (Russia)

50 - 1859

100 - Steam Power

876 - Zero and decimal numbers

1202 - Algebra

1435 - Perspective in Art

1439 - Printing Press (Germany)

1543 - Anatomy

1600 - Magnetism

1673 - Microscope

1774 - Combustion

1796 - Vaccines

1799 - Electric battery

1808 - Theory of atoms

1820 - Electromagnetism

1822 - Difference engine

1828 - Synthetic substance

1859 - Theory of Evolution (Britain)

3500 - 300 BC: Wheel, writing, astronomy, geometry

3500 BC - Wheel

3200 BC: First Writing Created in Egypt

3000 - Astronomy

1000 - Greek alphabet

320 - Botany

300 - Euclidean geometry

20 thousand hp: Bow and arrows

20,000 - Bow and arrows ^[4]]

35 thousand hp: The appearance of the account

35,000 years ago - Account

1.45 million hp: Development of fire

1,450,000 years ago - The development of fire by ancient people was a turning point in human social evolution, which allowed people to diversify protein and carbohydrate foods with the opportunity to cook them, develop their activity at night, and protect themselves from predators.

2.5 million hp: First stone tools

2,500,000 years ago - the first industry of stone tools ^[5]].

Notes