The impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the world

The main articles are:

• Coronavirus COVID-19
• Coronavirus COVID-19 in Russia
• COVID-19 coronavirus tests
• Drugs for coronavirus COVID-19
• Vaccines against coronavirus COVID-19

Russia

Main article: The impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the Russian economy

In the world

2022: Pandemic continues to be the driver of digitalization in the world

Comindware and PEX on July 12, 2022 shared the results of the study "The pandemic continues to be the driver of digitalization in the world."

The pandemic is still the main reason for interest in business automation solutions. This PEX 2022 report indicates that 68% of companies worldwide in 2021 fully felt the negative impact of the pandemic and the need to automate business processes.

The authors of the study indicate that in 2021, a significant part of business around the world came to realize the exceptional importance of introducing automation and remote process control tools. At the same time, as the comparison of the PEX 2021 and PEX 2022 reports shows, the pandemic remains the main reason for interest in automating processes.

This is obvious especially when it comes to a business that provides a full cycle of customer service and call center operation, the study said.

Digitalization is no less relevant for companies that manage supply chains. It is significant that in third place in terms of interest in the implementation of automation systems is financial activity - it was named a priority by 26% of the companies surveyed. For comparison, in 2021, financial activities occupied only the fifth line in the survey.

Experts note that such a shift in the focus of interests is understandable, because companies are forced to spend significant funds on carrying out new transformations in the wake of the protracted pandemic, so they improve the processes associated with the turnover of finance.

Researchers conclude that the pace of business automation will continue in 2022. This process will be most noticeable in the field of finance, marketing and sales, distributions goods, and. CSR HR

Compared to the data published in the PEX 2021 report, companies have more often deployed process improvement programs as part of enterprise scale transformation. This trend was noted by 44% of respondents, while in 2021 the share of such respondents was 35%. Together with other survey results, it can be concluded that business transformation primarily occurs at the initiative of senior management of enterprises and is carried out in life with its active support, the PEX 2022 report says.

Experts believe that the pandemic has led to a shift in the thinking of managers and demonstrated how useful specialists in the field of improving business processes can be when it is necessary to urgently reduce costs.

Work on the localization of the PEX 2022 study in Russia is still underway by Comindware.

2021

Five critical trends in technology for air travel resulting from the pandemic

transport In 2021, the air industry was forced to adapt virtually all of its operations to meet rapidly changing travel rules and requirements. The changes affected many areas, from health checks to changes in border control rules based on the emergence of foci virus and the appearance of various strains such COVID-19 as omicron. SITA announced this on January 21, 2022. More. here

OECD: Vaccination of the entire world's population will cost $50 billion

Vaccination of the entire world population against the coronavirus COVID-19 will cost $50 billion, Lawrence Boone, senior economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), said at the presentation of a new report on the economic situation in the world in early December 2021.

According to her, $50 billion is an insignificant amount for vaccinations to the entire population of the globe, it looks completely disproportionate compared to $10 trillion allocated to support the economy experiencing a pandemic. $10 trillion - this is how much was spent by the G20 countries to mitigate the economic consequences of the pandemic.

Boone noted that the emergence of a new version of the omicron coronavirus increases uncertainty and could become a threat to the recovery of the global economy. Vaccination of the maximum possible number of people remains a priority to end the pandemic and to eliminate imbalances that hinder recovery, the economist said.

The new OECD forecast does not take into account the impact of the new strain on the global economy. But in it, economists are urging governments to tackle low vaccination rates in some regions to avoid creating a "breeding ground for more deadly strains."

According to the OECD, by the beginning of December 2021, 150 doses of vaccine per 100 people were used in states with high and middle incomes, taking into account revaccination. In lower-middle income countries, fewer than 70 doses. In poor countries, only 7.6 vaccinations per 100 inhabitants were given.

To vaccinate the majority of the world's adults against the coronavirus COVID-19, the World Health Organization will need from $35 billion to $45 billion in 2022. This was stated by the head of WHO Tedros Ghebreyes in May 2021. He noted that the organization will need this amount in addition to the necessary $19 billion to finance the international ACT Accelerator program launched by WHO to combat the pandemic.^[1]

More than half of companies have been affected by contractors in the pandemic

More than half of organizations (51%) have suffered from one or more incidents related to non-fulfillment by counterparties (suppliers of goods and services, distributors, contractors) of their obligations since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic (since the official announcement of the pandemic in the world - March 11, 2020). Such conclusions follow from the survey "Risk management of third parties in 2021," conducted by the international network "Deloitte" among more than a thousand representatives of companies from different sectors of the economy from 30 countries of the world. The company announced this on November 25, 2021.

Of these incidents, 13% had serious consequences that adversely affected the financial position/profitability of companies, affected the quality of customer service, or led to a gross violation of regulatory requirements. 31% of incidents resulted in moderate consequences, another 46% had limited consequences, and 10% of respondents were not sure that third parties were involved in the incident.

The highest share of incidents with counterparties fell on the sector, and power engineering specialists extracting processing - industries 60%. However, only 8% of them had serious consequences. 55% of companies from the consumer sector, as well as organizations of biomedical and sciences health care also suffered from the actions of third parties, but in the field this retail more often had a significant negative effect (21%) than medical in the industry (6%). In the financial sector, the proportion of incidents involving external contractors was the lowest (43%). At the same time, in only 6% of cases there were serious consequences for organizations. Almost half of the companies (46%) that took part in the previous study of the Deloitte international network expressed the opinion that the financial consequences of non-fulfillment by counterparties of their obligations at least doubled in material terms over the past five years. Thus, a fifth (19%) of organizations estimated the volume of their financial risks in the event of large incidents with third parties at 500 million or more $ USA , and a tenth (11%) - at $1 billion or more. USA

The main subject of concern, according to 71% of respondents, is associated with digital risks, - says Sergey Kudryashov, partner of the Deloitte Risk Management Department in the CIS and head of business continuity and crisis management practice. - 52% of companies said they could not assess counterparty vulnerabilities in real time. Another 47% of respondents drew attention to the outdated IT infrastructure of third parties, and 44% noted the inability of subcontractors to implement the digital work technologies required at the moment at the right pace.

Almost half (45%) of organizations continue to act in response to risks caused by the pandemic. About a third (29%) of respondents are at the stage of recovery, returning lost positions and rebuilding their risk management systems related to counterparties. And only a fourth (26%) of companies moved to the stage when we can talk about further growth.

Enterprises in the power, manufacturing and extractive industries (53%), life sciences and healthcare (49%), as well as the consumer sector (47%) took the most time to respond to the spread of coronavirus infection, which may indicate a more serious impact of the pandemic on these industries.

The largest share of respondents from companies at the stage of further growth falls on the financial services sector - 33%, however, another 30% are recovering. This is followed by the technology, media and telecommunications sector, where 32% of companies are growing and 23% are recovering. Another 39% of state organizations are going through the recovery stage, while 25% announced the transition to the growth stage.

During the pandemic, the introduction of "smart" systems for managing counterparties' risks and monitoring them became widespread. Organizations are in great demand for systems that allow them to receive in real time the information that management needs to make strategic decisions, comprehensively analyze and monitor third-party risks. At the same time, many organizations would like targeted support to develop a joint approach to managing such risks. Thus, 64% of companies would enlist external support in one or more areas of risk management within the framework of relationships with counterparties.

The need to reduce costs conflicts with the intention to improve risk management, "said Christian Park, partner and head of the International Group for the Provision of Services in the Field of Risk Management of Relationships with Counterparties of the Deloitte International Network. - Overall, the need to manage costs keeps a number of organizations from doing many outsourced work in-house, despite new risks and challenging business process sustainability issues.

That is why 53% of respondents have increased the priority of the task of increasing costs to improve the quality of risk management. Outsourcing is almost always cheaper, but only 14% of respondents say that they outsource work, guided mainly by quality and stability, and not by the need to reduce costs.

Thus, 70% of public sector organizations plan to use internal resources for management, despite higher costs. On the contrary, 58% of companies in the technology, media and telecommunications sector and 54% of organizations in the field of life sciences and health care are more likely to resort to the help of external contractors in order to reduce costs.

States have accumulated gigantic debts due to the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic may have led to an increase in public debt to a level that has already forced some governments to think about consolidation, but this is nothing compared to the fiscal difficulties that will arise in the coming decades, the OECD said in October 2021.

Under the long-term scenario, a slowdown in major emerging economies, demographic changes and a slowdown in labour productivity growth would lead to a slowdown in economic growth among 38 OECD members and G20 countries to 1.5% in 2060 from about 3% currently.

To preserve public services and benefits and stabilize debt in such conditions, governments will have to increase revenues by almost 8% of GDP, according to the OECD. In some countries, including France and Japan, the size of the problem will be more than 10% of output, with economists not even taking into account new costs, such as adaptation to climate change.

AppDynamics studied the consequences of the pandemic and the impact of accelerating digital transformation on the work of IT specialists

On February 25, 2021, AppDynamics, a representative in the service and application health monitoring and control market at Cisco, published an updated version of its global Transformation Agents study that examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of accelerating digital transformation on IT professionals.

The study was conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 and contains answers from 1,050 IT specialists from 10 countries, including Russia. It demonstrates the significant complexity of IT infrastructures caused by the need for rapid innovation and accelerated technology deployment. The study also confirmed the importance of monitoring the technology stack, taking into account the business context, which enables specialists to manage IT systems, overcome information noise and focus on what is most important to their companies' business.

In 2020, organizations were forced to quickly switch to the "digital rails" of business development, putting IT employees in the leading positions in order to cope with critical changes and minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their financial performance. According to the study, this led to a 3x acceleration in the implementation of digital transformation projects.

But such a rapid introduction of innovations has the opposite side, so it is not surprising that IT specialists found themselves in a difficult situation: 89% (in Russia - 90%) reported that they were experiencing growing pressure at work, and 84% admitted that it was difficult for them to recover after the end of the working day and switch to personal affairs. In addition, many employees feel a sense of disappointment in their work (total indicator - 81%, in Russia - 68%) and note an increase in corporate conflicts (total indicator - 63%, in Russia - 66%).

The latest AppDynamics study highlights that accelerated digital transformation has led to a major technical complexity in the IT department structure, with the following factors cited by IT professionals as the main reasons:

• Updated set of priorities and challenges (total - 80%, in Russia - 82%)
• Growth in the pace of technology deployment and simultaneous use of traditional and cloud solutions (total indicator - 78%, in Russia - 72%).
• Accelerated transition to cloud computing (total indicator - 77%, in Russia - 72%).
• Many disparate monitoring solutions (total indicator - 74%, in Russia - 80%).

The complexity of IT infrastructures has led to a significant increase in the amount of data generated by the technology stack: from applications and infrastructure, to the network and security. Therefore, 85% (78% in Russia) of IT employees believe that overcoming the information noise produced by constantly growing volumes of data will be a serious problem in 2021. The task remains to determine the underlying causes of performance problems. In turn, 75% (78% in Russia) of respondents said that they are already trying to cope with the growing flow of information noise and need a unified solution that would provide the opportunity to control the entire IT structure in real time.

• 95% (90% in Russia) of employees note the importance of end-to-end observation of the IT infrastructure.
• 96% indicate negative consequences of lack of observability and understanding of the state of the process stack.

While most technical professionals recognize the importance of monitoring the IT stack, the vast majority of all respondents 92% believe that the most important result of innovation in 2021 should be the ability to connect technology efficiency with business results, such as: customer experience, number of transactions performed, sales volume and total revenue.

In addition, almost 3/4 of the respondents (the total indicator is 73%, in Russia - 60%) fear that the inability to connect IT productivity with business results will lead their companies to losses in 2021. And 96% acknowledge that the ability to establish a causal relationship between end-to-end observability and real-time business metrics will be essential to the quality of digital customer service and accelerating digital transformation.

Standard monitoring tools deliver huge amounts of information that require too much resources to analyze, while technicians need the ability to monitor key indicators and focus on aspects that affect core business processes.

The report also highlights that while employees are aware of the need to use contextual data to monitor the performance of the IT infrastructure in real time, more than half (66% overall, 68% in Russia) do not have the resources and tools necessary for this, and 96% point to at least one obstacle to implementing such an approach in their companies.

At the same time, the rates are higher than ever: 3/4 of IT specialists (total indicator - 75%, in Russia - 76%) said that their organizations need to connect the end-to-end observability of the technological stack with business indicators over the next 12 months in order to remain competitive in the market.

End-to-end visibility is the only approach that allows companies to cope with the scale and complexity of IT infrastructures caused by the accelerated pace of innovation, "said Jeetu Patel, Senior Vice President of Cisco and General Manager of the Security and Application Business Group. "But that alone is not enough. Representatives of IT departments realized that without a business context, they would quickly "drown" in information noise. AppDynamics is capable of leveraging Cisco's rich expertise in networking, infrastructure, and security, and can provide real-time monitoring and observability of business context. The AppDynamics Business Observability platform will allow IT employees to better prioritize and effectively influence their business.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way more than 70% of organizations look at process management

Comindware, a resident of the Skolkovo Foundation, on February 15, 2021 announced the availability for download of Russian localization of key items of the PEX Network report - the global community of BPM professionals and managers - on how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the place of process management in organizations, innovation and monetization of changes in 2020 and the expected vector of digital transformation in 2021. More than 165 thousand took part in the annual survey. BPM professionals and executives around the world.

In general, according to the report, the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the view of 73% of organizations on process management. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, discussions are around a strategy for survival and ensuring sustainability, not reducing activity. As the survey of respondents showed, only 1 out of 5 businesses feels confident enough in terms of processes to adapt to the changes that have taken place in the world.

At the same time, the scale of projects to improve business processes has increased - for example, 35% of companies launched enterprise-scale projects, last year there were 24% of them. The value of transformation has grown in the eyes of senior management of enterprises - increasingly the CEO is responsible for the business transformation program. 53% of businesses do not expect budget cuts for improving processes compared to last year.

Top 3 areas for investment in 2021: digital transformation, data analytics/business analytics, cultural transformation.

Linking initiatives to improve processes with a business strategy at the highest level remains in the top 3 tasks for 2021. This is an indication that senior management often does not understand well enough how initiatives to improve processes and transform businesses can help achieve strategic goals.

"Due to the trend of digital transformation, which was significantly intensified by the COVID-19 crisis, tectonic shifts in the BPM region are taking place," said Anatoly Belaychuk, BPM evangelist at Comindware, President of ABPMP Russian Chapter. - In 2020, we noted an increase in understanding of the importance to the business of an integrated platform that would provide the ability to freely combine digital technologies, including BPM, RPA, AI, chatbots, automatic process detection, etc. As we can see, 29% of organizations are going to use the digital platform in 2021, which confirms the relevance of this trend, and BPM systems will continue to successfully play the role of the kernel in such platforms. The dominant trend in 2021 is the democratization of digital transformation. This trend covers civil development and, in general, the involvement of a wide range of employees in the design of processes, process architecture, new business models. "

You can download the Russian localization of the PEX Network report on the survey results for free on the Comindware website. The results of the survey are given in a visual graphical form. A brief comparative analysis with the previous year's report gives an idea of ​ ​ the scale of changes and trends in the areas of process improvement and digital business transformation. The report is supplemented by comments from Russian experts who will help understand the vector of changes and trends in digitalization in Russia.

Accenture: Technology and sustainability will help businesses recover from the coronavirus crisis faster

Accenture January 26, 2021 presented the results of a study based on a survey of 4051 senior executives in 13 countries and 19 industries. industries Companies that accelerate the transition to digital and sustainability will be able to recover faster from the economic crisis, according to the report. They will probably be able to return to their previous profits in 18 months.

The COVID-19 crisis has led to a divergence in priorities for the sustainability of companies, and also slowed down their growth prospects:

• About half (49%) of European companies report a decline in revenue or profit over the past 12 months and do not expect an improvement in the next 12 months.
• A fifth (19%) of European companies that had good financial performance before the pandemic expect negative income or profit dynamics in the next 12 months. The report calls these companies "falling angels."
• A third (32%) of European companies expect profit growth in the next 12 months. The report called these companies "the leaders of tomorrow."

Research suggests that companies leading both digital adoption and sustainable practices are almost three times more likely to be among the "leaders of tomorrow." They recover faster and emerge more gracefully from the crisis.

Digital transformation defined the business landscape in the 2010s: companies that were able to quickly deploy and scale technology won. We are entering a decade that marks another wave of changes in business - the transition to sustainable development. How effectively companies cope with this "double transformation" will depend on their speed of recovery from the crisis, and how effectively they can develop in the post-covid world, "said Jean-Marc Ollanier, Accenture CEO in Europe.

According to the study, almost half (45%) of the companies surveyed are ready to invest in digital transformation and sustainable development. In particular, 40% of respondents plan large investments in artificial intelligence, 37% in cloud technologies, and 31% of respondents are going to rebalance their investments in order to focus on sustainable business models.

Accenture offers several steps the business can take to "double transform":

• Promote ecosystem business models based on sustainability and technology capabilities - more than 10% of the revenue of leading companies is already created through this approach.
• Pool resources to scale the application of technology and implement sustainable methods - the leaders of the "double transformation" are investing more in innovation, allocating more than 10% of their annual revenue to research and development.
• Develop talent, empower employees: Transformation leaders take responsibility for maintaining equal employment opportunities in their teams. They spare no effort to retrain and improve the skills of their employees, realizing that the creation and education of talents is necessary to turn transformation into tangible business value.

2020

The European Commission allocated Ukraine €600 million to combat COVID-19

In early December 2020, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the European Commission had allocated €600 million in macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. These funds will be used to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Zelensky thanked the head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen (Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen) and said that the funds provided are "a clear sign that the European Union supports macroeconomic stability and the course of Ukraine's reforms." Read more here.

Accenture assessed how the coronavirus changed retail

Accenture has released a report entitled "How COVID-19 is changing retail" as part of Global Consumer Pulse Research's annual consumer opinion survey. This became known on November 12, 2020. The study surveyed about 9 thousand consumers around the world to study their expectations from companies and brands after the pandemic.

Data from Accenture analysts suggests that to meet the growing needs of customers, it is important for companies to develop new products and services, as well as increase investment in digital technologies and maximize the potential of their offline stores by revising their format and location.

Global trends in consumer behavior, as well as the findings of the global team, confirm that what we see in daily practice in. In Russia particular, growth in the share of conscious consumption, an increased need for the safety of digital and offline shopping experiences, the sensitivity of customers to the service and the responsibility of stores against the background of caution in spending - all these trends are already noticeable in Russian retail, - notes Marko Spatsiani Testa, head of the department of consumer goods, retail, trade pharmaceutical industry and, transport Accenture in Russia and. Kazakhstan

The study found that the main priority for consumers was health (78% of those surveyed). At the same time, consumers have increased fears of financial instability (the number of people concerned about this increased from 37% in March to 50% in November 2020).

The study also shows that business responsibility is becoming very important for consumers. Buyers believe that businesses need to be included in solving global social and environmental problems (66% of respondents). The same percentage of respondents expect retail chains to make decisions in this direction - for example, an increase in the number of products from environmentally friendly materials on shelves.

What retailers need to do:

• Concentrate on initiatives that will protect customers: zoning stores to maintain social distance, disinfecting premises, and limiting the number of buyers.
• Train employees to interact with customers who are afraid to spend a lot of time outside the home.
• Use data to have a clear picture of the spread of the virus and customer confidence.

In the next 6 months, 73% of buyers surveyed prefer to socialize at home or away. So communication with friends online is chosen by 53% of respondents, 59% of respondents are ready to be in parks and other open spaces. At the same time, meetings with friends in restaurants are comfortable only 28% of respondents, and in bars and clubs only 13%. About 45% of consumers surveyed are not ready to start actively visiting public places at all.

Coronavirus contributed to the emergence of hobbies in people. So in April, citizens' interest in cooking and baking quadrupled, and people's passion for home decor, DIY, and gardening increased by 65%.

What retailers need to do:

• Prepare for the fact that buyers will stay at home for a long time. Create favorable conditions for purchases in such conditions.
• Consider how to implement social and creative events at home and commercialize them through business models or services.
• Develop cross-industrial collaboration and combine products, content and digital technologies to improve the customer's digital path.
• Maintain customers and channels by exploring key motivations (price, payment options, support, common customer path).
• Revise the location and formats of stores, taking into account the desire of people to stay at home.

People's shopping preferences have changed. The coronavirus has pushed buyers to think about how and what they are purchasing. Now people seek to give preference to local brands (56% of respondents for November 2020 and 84% in the future), buy goods in stores at home (56% for November 2020 and 79% in the future). Buyers take a closer look at prices: 54% of respondents have become more economical.

The growth of e-commerce and omnichannel services will continue. The e-commerce segment showed the fastest growth in 10 years: in the first 4 months of 2020, the volume of this market increased by 27% (for comparison, the growth for the entire 2019 was 16%). Analysts also expect the e-commerce market to grow 169% at the expense of those buyers who, as of November 2020, do not shop online or make them rarely.

Customers appreciated the safety and convenience of online shopping and will continue to use this shopping method even despite the physical opening of stores.

Figures from the Accenture study indicate that as of November 2020, 54% of buyers use contactless payment (87% will do this in the near future), 54% order goods through applications (84% in the future), 47% use home delivery (82% in the future), 44% buy through social networks (80% in the future).

What retailers need to do:

• Establish closer partnerships with local brands to meet demand for local products, as well as help small businesses survive the upheaval.
• Consider bringing more affordable and mid-range brands to market.
• Focus on proposals related to health and well-being. Changing the range and educational materials can help customers make healthier choices.
• Stimulate conscious consumption by educating customers.
• Provide a variety of digital shopping opportunities.

Worldcom Confidence Index: Business confidence in the strength of corporate reputation has collapsed around the world

On August 4, 2020, it became known that the Worldcom study fixes the stabilization of the business confidence index at low values ​ ​ and especially notes in the global "gloom" the blow to the image and brand of corporations in the context of passing through a pandemic.

As explained, the international network of communication companies Worldcom has been measuring the confidence of entrepreneurs around the world for several years, analyzing their statements on social networks. Using artificial intelligence, messages are processed by about 54,000 managers in 9 languages. Until November 2019, such a study was carried out annually, but in the context of the pandemic that swept the world from April 2020, analysts began to calculate the index monthly, doubling the number of countries covered to 30.

The summer wave of the study recorded the stabilization of the confidence index at low values, fluctuating for the second month at a close 28% decline by 2018.

For the third month in a row, the leading positions in the growth in the involvement of entrepreneurs in the discussion are occupied by personnel management issues: training and retraining of employees (+ 6%), maintaining the brand of an attractive employer (+ 2%) involving employees to increase productivity (+ 1%) and retaining talented (+ 1%).

In matters of business confidence, a drop from 1 to 7% is noted on all the most frequently discussed topics, while the most remarkable was the decrease in the level of confidence in corporate image and reputation (-5%) with private differences in individual countries.

In 2020, corporate image and reputation issues took a hit from all sides. First, companies had to make efforts to save face against the background of a radical restructuring of markets in a pandemic. Secondly, it is important for brands to integrate into the agenda to maintain their image, which has become difficult in the face of an ongoing series of negative news. But here it is important to remember that the crisis is, first of all, opportunities and even negative topics have significant potential for reporting messages that sound not so clear in normal conditions. noted Yakov Minevich, Director General of the Communications Agency R.I.M.

The Worldcom Confidence Index is conducted by the international network of communication agencies Worldcom PR Group with the participation of specialists from Advanced Symbolics Inc., a Canadian company engaged in marketing research using artificial intelligence. The representative of Worldcom in Russia since 2019 is the communications agency R.I.M.

Accenture TechVision: Technology trends in the midst of a pandemic

On June 23, 2020, Accenture said that it had revised its review of Technology Vision 2020 trends for 2020 due to the pandemic and the global crisis. Changes in people's lives are unprecedented and have an impact on many industries. Accenture analysts have explored what trends will impact people and businesses in the post-pandemic era.

According to the company, the pandemic has changed the role and significance of the digital experience of buyers - just look at the increase in the volume of e-commerce around the world. In April 2020, Visa reported an 18% increase in spending on online sales in the United States. The company also said 13 million Latino Visa cardholders made online transactions for the first time in the first quarter of 2020.

Such a change is important for both platforms and the formation of personalized ones. content But traditional personalisation of client experience relies on what is historical data less relevant for June 2020, when people's lives, habits, preferences have changed. More flexible customer engagement strategies are needed.

An important way to quickly update information and data is to understand the needs of customers, as well as to quickly remove from offers what is no longer relevant. If the company can provide customers with the opportunity to manage the digital experience, this will provide a quick way to receive information about wishes and needs.

For example, the Tasting Collective subscription restaurant club during the quarantine period switched from a business model of preparing dinners under the guidance of chefs in their establishments to live culinary classes.

Before the pandemic, a Technology Vision survey showed that 73% of organizations pilot or implement artificial intelligence in one or more business units. For June 2020, AI should become a critical priority - its advantages have not yet looked so promising.

Human-machine collaboration plays a significant role in the race to create a vaccine: Insilico Medicine repurposed its AI platform to develop a drug.

As of June 2020, many enterprises work with a reduced staff, as well as with distancing rules. AI can help people come up with solutions and ideas to create a more flexible organization.

Artificial alert tools help keep people healthy and informed - from virtual assistants within health system institutions to AI thermal imaging cameras to detect fever.

AI systems also help keep important enterprises running smoothly. For example, Innowatts is a startup that uses AI to manage the increased need for electricity.

The most relevant of TechTrends for June 2020 is active. robotization People stay at home, distancing is becoming the norm. Robots, moving from a controlled environment (closed warehouses) to an uncontrolled (unlimited), will be able to help people sitting in isolation do the work. From specialized industries industries , robotization shifts to all others.

Thus, the Chinese agricultural the technology company XAG has redesigned its unmanned aerial vehicles XPlanet robots and R80 for spraying disinfectant in areas affected. virus Thailand Ninja robots were repurposed as students in the engineering departments of a local university from observing patients who had undergone to stroke measuring temperature and helping doctors.

In Shenzhen, a startup called YouIbot built an antivirus robot in just two weeks. It has six ultraviolet rods that can disinfect surfaces and an infrared camera to scan for temperature among patients and visitors.

In the long term, the entire robotics ecosystem will develop at an accelerated pace. Robotization will cause a surge in the development of IoT devices and 5G networks. More demand will be for tools for telemedicine training and with. VR

As of June 2020, consumers are increasingly left frustrated by ongoing changes and updates to purchased IT products. In the meantime, the crisis is increasing the need for smart and renewable health solutions. In the short term, such devices are becoming tools in the fight against the pandemic.

For example, Kinsa, which makes smart thermometers, has an array of data on the body temperature of users, on the basis of which the US Health Weather Map was created, which breaks down the data by counties.

Oura, a manufacturer of smart rings, is working with UCSF to explore the ring's prospects for detecting early signs of the disease. If previously repurposing smart devices or quickly implementing features rather upset customers, they are now much more welcome.

For June 2020, three areas have been investigated in the "DNA innovation" trend: mature digital technologies, scientific achievements and emerging DARQ technologies (blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced reality and quantum computing).

The pandemic has accelerated the adaptation of DARQ technologies. The World Health Organization, Oracle, Microsoft and IBM are collaborating on the HACERA MiPasa project for June 2020 - an open blockchain-based data center that aims to quickly identify carriers of the disease and "hot spots" of their dangerous concentration. Cedars-Sinai Hospital in Los Angeles has implemented VR modeling to train doctors to treat infectious diseases.

In the short term, the pandemic puts ecosystems to a stressful test of innovation, opening up opportunities for innovation on the scale of ecosystems. It is enough to calculate how many restaurants remained open in quarantine only because grocery delivery startups connect them with customers. Cities are partnering with hotels to house homeless people and stop the spread of the virus in overcrowded shelters.

Therapeutic VR company AppliedVR is partnering with Red One Medical to offer stress management programs to healthcare workers at the forefront of disease control. General Motors and Tesla are working on the production of medical equipment, such as ventilators. Louis Vuitton uses its perfume and beauty lines to produce hand sanitizer supplied free of charge to hospitals. Hedley & Bennett, Hanes and other clothing brands have repurposed production for protective equipment - masks and gloves.

The pandemic has caused increased demand in the development of high technologies. Growth opportunities and technological upgrades that businesses have previously had to prepare for within a few years are becoming available in a matter of weeks for June 2020. Other types of challenges and challenges require organizations to innovate and rethink approaches to work as soon as possible.

Maria Grigorieva, Managing Director of Accenture Technology in Russia, notes that the current crisis and its consequences will accelerate the digitalization of Russian business. As of June 2020, according to her, projects related to e-commerce and digital sales channels are being updated, and the demand for the development of transport planning and control systems is growing. All this reinforces the need to obtain and analyze "big data" about users, about changes in demand, price volatility, etc. Moreover, this applies not only to such familiar areas as retail, but also to production. Another trend for June 2020 for Russian companies during the crisis is a shift in focus on the use of ready-made boxed solutions that can quickly bring results.

Gartner: IT market will sink 8% due to COVID-19

On May 13, 2020, the analytical company Gartner presented an updated forecast for the global IT market. If in January experts expected an increase in spending on information technology by 3.4% at the end of 2020 (up to $3.9 trillion), then after the revision they announced a negative indicator - -8% (up to $3.4 trillion). Read more here.

Spending on corporate blockchain projects will grow by 60% despite coronavirus

In early May 2020, research company IDC announced a forecast according to which spending on corporate blockchain projects in Europe in 2020 will grow by 60% despite the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Read more here.

IDC assessed the impact of coronavirus on the global IT market

In early May 2020, the analytical company IDC published the results of a study on the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus on the IT market. According to experts, global IT spending in 2020 will decrease by 5.1% to $2.25 trillion. In January, analysts expected growth of the same 5.1%. Read more here.

UN calls for immediate construction of a new economy due to coronavirus

At the end of April 2020, the UN released a report in which it called on countries to start creating a new economy, since the old one will no longer be the same due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

There will be no return to "old normality." Massive reallocations of financial resources carried out by governments in these weeks and months,... are a glimpse of the future... The COVID-19 crisis is plunging the global economy into recession with historic levels of unemployment and poverty, the study says.

Experts believe that countries should join forces to support social, economic and environmental well-being in the future.

We are all interconnected and need boundless solidarity, the UN stressed.

The international organization believes that due to COVID-19, 195 million people may be left without work, and the level of unemployment and poverty may become "historical." Small and medium-sized businesses, agriculture, self-employed citizens and labor migrants will suffer the greatest losses as a result of the crisis.

According to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, "one of the key components of the UN's work is to preserve lives, protect people, recreate the best conditions for society after a health threat is given under the auspices of WHO."

The UN has listed three main actions that, according to the organization, need to be taken in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic:

• the work of the Solidarity Response Fund (created at the initiative of WHO to finance the fight against coronavirus) in the fight against infection under the control of the UN Foundation and the Swiss Charitable Foundation to eliminate the immediate threat to human health;
• implementing the UN plan for a global humanitarian response to the pandemic;
• implementation of the UN plan for socio-economic recovery.^[2]

Why Indian IT companies will be hit harder than others

In April 2020, it became known that Indian IT companies could suffer from the COVID-19 pandemic more than high-tech companies in other countries. Since they account for a large percentage of projects that are not related to the continuous functioning of the business - that is, those that can be postponed. Read more here.

Map of financial support for citizens and businesses in countries of the world

Canadian authorities compensate companies for 75% of salaries so that they do not fire people

On April 11, 2020, Canada passed a bill to subsidize wages in an attempt to stabilize the economy of the country affected by the COVID-19 coronavirus, which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the biggest problem of his generation. Read more here.

Head of Veon: Coronavirus accelerated the digitalization of the economy by 10 times

VeonCaan Terzioglu co-director believes that the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of the global economy by 10 times. He expressed this opinion in an interview with Vedomosti, which was published on April 13, 2020.

Perhaps the coronavirus is a kind of call for the world to unite again around one platform for free trade and accelerating globalization. Working in telecom, I feel to some extent privileged, because the coronavirus has proven that the Internet and networks are the main livelihood of communities, countries, people and businesses, "Terzioglu said.

According to him, crises come from time to time, but the situation with the coronavirus will change the future of the world in a fundamental way. The digital inequality that divided people into those who are connected and those who are not connected will disappear very quickly, the head of the telecommunications corporation is sure.

Speaking about the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, Terzioglu expressed the opinion that in the next 12 months the unemployment rate will increase especially strongly, and the economies of some countries will be in decline. However, according to the top manager of Veon, these negative factors should make humanity stronger and smarter, it will benefit as much as possible from the crisis.

I think it will really positively affect all sources of creative ideas, perhaps become a catalyst for peace and free trade around the globe, "he stressed.

Kaan Terzioglu also noted that the situation with the coronavirus has once again confirmed the key role of the telecommunications industry in the existence of business, countries and ordinary people. He called telecom and healthcare workers "two heroes of this stage of human history" and explained that Veon specialists are trying with all their might to increase the bandwidth of networks, as well as fix the problems that arise.^[3]

How coronavirus has improved air quality in cities

Google will distribute $1,000 each to families in San Francisco who have been affected by COVID-19

On April 12, 2020, Google announced the payment of $1,000 to families in San Francisco, who were hardest hit by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. As financial support, the company itself allocates $1 million through its Google.org fund, the same amount will be provided by CEO Sundar Pichai. In total, it is planned to raise $5 million from Google employees and other people through the GiveDirectly charity. Read more here.

Coronavirus will lead to explosive growth in AI spending

The spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 will lead to an explosive increase in spending on artificial intelligence in the world, according to IDC analysts, who announced their forecast on April 9, 2020. Read more here.

France's economy is in its worst downturn since World War II

In early April 2020, the French Central Bank published another quarterly economic report, stressing that GDP in the first quarter reflected the deepest quarterly decline on record. It occurred due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Read more here.

How coronavirus is changing the digital transformation in the world

By early April 2020, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is in full swing, hitting all markets and countries. The consequences of the spread of infection will also affect how companies and government agencies carry out digital transformation. This conclusion was reached by analysts referred to by TechRadar. Read more here.

Singapore will give $417 to each resident to support in a pandemic

In early April 2020, Singapore announced that it would give $417 to each resident to support the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Read more here.

Japan will pay $2,700 to all citizens whose incomes have plummeted due to coronavirus

On April 7, 2020, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a local state of emergency and the allocation of about 108 trillion yen ($990 billion) to support business and the population amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. This amount is about 20% of Japan's GDP. Read more here.

Visa donates $210 million to help small businesses and charities

In early April 2020, the Visa Foundation announced the launch of programs with a total volume of $210 million to support small firms, as well as immediate assistance in the context of the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19. Read more here.

Philippine President orders shooting at quarantine violators

In early April 2020, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ordered to shoot at violators of the quarantine imposed due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

My orders to the police, military and local officials: if unrest begins, if they fight back and if there is a threat to your lives, you can shoot them, Duterte said in a televised address to the nation.

The Philippine leader also declared the inadmissibility of ill-treatment of medical workers, which will be considered by law enforcement officers of the country as a serious crime.

Duterte's statement is related to detentions in the Philippines for violating restrictive measures. Since mid-March 2020, the authorities have introduced increased quarantine due to the coronavirus on the island of Luzon. On April 1, it became known that in the city of Quezon City, the police dispersed a mass meeting and arrested 20 people for violating quarantine rules.

Philippine police were quick to soften the impression of the president's statement. National Police Chief Archie Gamboa assured that his subordinates would not open fire on protesters.

The president most likely unnecessarily insisted on applying the law during this crisis period, Gamboa said.

In the human rights organization Amnesty International expressed concerns due to the statement of the Philippine leader. The organization believes that the police should not be allowed to kill people during an emergency, which is the coronavirus pandemic.

It is very alarming that President Duterte extended the "shoot to kill" policy for law enforcement agencies, "said Butch Olano, head of the organization's Philippine branch. - Such lethal uncontrolled force should never be used in an emergency such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

As of April 2, 2020, more than 2.6 thousand people infected with the new coronavirus were detected in the Philippines. More than 100 people have died.^[4]

IT spending will be reduced by 4.6% in the world due to coronavirus

The reduction in IT spending in 2020 in the world is projected at 4.6%. According to analysts, positive expectations are due to the transition of a large number of employees to remote work, which should stimulate the development of the relevant IT infrastructure. However, many organizations are convinced that the pandemic will lead to lower demand and disruption of supply chains. More here.

Denmark shows an example: companies are compensated for up to 90% of salaries and rent

In early April 2020, it became known that the Danish government will compensate rent to affected companies, as well as from 75 to 90% of workers' wages over the next three months, provided that companies do not massively lay off people. Read more here.

Unthinkable rise in unemployment in the United States due to coronavirus

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States amid the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic rose at the end of March 2020 to a record 3.28 million in a week.

US Federal Reserve balance sheet exceeded $5 trillion for the first time in history

At the end of March 2020, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic, the Fed's balance sheet exceeded $5 trillion for the first time in history.

China calls coronavirus pandemic the beginning of de-dollarization of the world

At the end of March 2020, the Chinese media called the coronavirus pandemic the beginning of the de-dollarization of the world. The Chinese edition of The 21st Century Business Herald published an article in which the journalist outlined the economic problems of the United States during the pandemic, and also explained why the COVID-19 crisis could take away the status of the world reserve currency from the dollar, that is, lead to the de-dollarization of the world.

China Has been gaining an increasingly significant role in trading relations for years, yet the dollar has only strengthened its position as the dominant reserve currency. Despite the Belt and Road initiative, which was supposed to promote a new model of international cooperation and development, the share China in the trade sector, expressed in yuan, was only 14%. After the 2008 crisis, non-bank debt in US dollars almost doubled, while the share of other leading currencies stagnated or contracted.

The Chinese article examines various forecasts of the economic downturn in the United States as a result of the crisis caused by the coronavirus, highlights the dependence of the US economy on consumption, as well as side effects of a decrease in demand for other countries. At the same time, the author of the article claims that neither the US fiscal nor monetary policy will be effective during the coronavirus crisis. He believes that aggressive monetary policy and demand stimulation will lead to inflation due to supply chain disruption, production cuts and trade turnover.

The author claims that the US stock market has become just a bubble due to ten years of stimulus, and considers a crisis in the bond market possible. He states that the US failed to play a unifying role during the crisis and "damaged other countries in its own interests."^[5]

France launches troops into cities to control movement of citizens due to coronavirus epidemic

On March 16, 2020, the leadership of hospitals in France was informed that a state of emergency would be introduced in the country. This will be accompanied by the introduction of army units and a ban on free movement for 45 days.

How cybercriminals make millions from coronavirus

On March 13, 2020, the antivirus company Eset released a message about how cybercriminals are profiting from the coronavirus. Read more here.

ECB increases asset purchases due to epidemic by 120 billion euros

On March 12, 2020, the ECB expanded its existing asset purchase program in connection with the COVID-19 epidemic. Previously, the bank purchased assets for an average of 20 billion euros per month; now it was decided by the end of the year to additionally purchase assets for another 120 billion euros, and a significant part in the procurement package will be corporate bonds. ECB experts argue that this will support the markets of countries in which risks on government bonds grow - for example, the Italian market. Read more here.

Millions of children miss school due to coronavirus

Stock markets collapse

So far, the number of cases is growing rapidly, so economic forecasts are regularly revised, mainly in the direction of lowering the estimated results. So, February 24 was the worst day for global stock markets in the last three years. The sharp drop occurred on the world's leading exchanges: in particular, the Stoxx Europe 600 decreased by 3.6%, the Nasdaq index fell by 3.2%. Crisis phenomena are fully characteristic of Asian securities markets. The decline in indices was provoked by the rapid spread of the virus outside China - the number of infected increased in Iran, South Korea and Italy^[6].

In the Russian Federation, February 24 was a day off, so trading took place on February 25 - the Moscow Exchange index, calculated in rubles, lost 3.33% in one session. Many blue chips demonstrated negative dynamics, including securities of Gazprom, Lukoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rosneft and other first-tier companies. Growth against the background of panic investors show only protective assets - gold and American government bonds. Shares of domestic gold mining companies have a positive trend.

A number of industries can be identified that will suffer from the epidemic more than others. Among them are tourism, retail, energy, and the technology sector. The profit of participants in the listed markets in the first quarter of 2020 may decrease by 5-10%. The fall in shares of some companies is capable of reaching 20%. Naturally, the shares of these corporations will be under pressure in the near future, the fall can be estimated at 15-20%.

The epidemic has already had a very serious impact on the automotive market. According to analysts at the Moody's rating agency, by the end of 2020, the car market may decrease by 2.5%. This dynamics is associated with a narrowing of demand, which is observed due to the epidemic, and with disruptions in supply chains. The biggest drop affected the Chinese automobile market: in the first two weeks of February, passenger car sales in China, according to the China Passenger Car Association, decreased by 92%.

The forecast for overall macroeconomic indicators is regularly revised downward. China's role in the global economy is very large, so negative trends were outlined back in mid-January, when an increase in incidence was observed mainly in the PRC. Bank of America experts fear that 2020 will end with the worst performance in the last 10 years. In my opinion, the growth rate of the global economy as a result of the epidemic will decrease by 0.5-1% percentage points.

Which sectors of the market will the epidemic hit first

The outbreak of coronavirus in China is not only a source of economic risks that can cause changes (or "shuffling") in production chains around the world, but also the reason for the growth of social tensions in the country. Both Chinese citizens and foreign governments are increasingly suspicious that the epidemic could be avoided if the response of the Chinese authorities to the primary outbreak was more prompt. Experts of the international group Coface, specializing in trade insurance and risk management, analyzed the current situation in the world market in general and the PRC market in particular and made a number of forecasts regarding possible scenarios for the further development of events in the short and long term.

The epidemic may put an end to the ambitious economic goals of the PRC for 2020

Could the epidemic be a watershed event that will knock the ground from under the feet of the PRC government and force it to reconsider its domestic policies? Coface economists believe that such a scenario is unlikely, especially if the actions of the authorities of the Celestial Empire in the next few months are effective and will help contain the further spread of the virus. Despite the fact that the risk of radical political or economic scenarios is currently assessed as low, the current situation will in any case negatively affect both the Chinese market and the world. First of all, the markets of Asian countries, which are closely related to the economy of the PRC, will suffer. Probably, as a result of the chaos sown by the epidemic, the central banks of a number of Asian countries this year will have to optimize their monetary policy in one way or another.

At the moment, it is obvious that the outbreak of coronavirus will have a much more significant impact on the global market than the SARS epidemic had in 2003. In fact, China has been isolated from the international trade arena, which causes significant interruptions in transnational value chains, and today China is integrated into the world market much more tightly than in 2003, so the coronavirus epidemic and the associated shutdowns of Chinese factories will somehow affect all sectors of the world market. The share of the Middle Kingdom in world GDP is currently 17% (4% in 2003), and personal consumption increased from 13% of the consumption of American households in 2003 to almost 40% in 2018.

According to the Academy of Social Sciences of the PRC, the epidemic outbreak of coronavirus can cost China about $60 billion, which means that the growth rate of GDP of the Middle Kingdom in the 1st quarter of this year may fall to 4.5% and even lower in annual terms. Moreover, this scenario is considered optimistic, since it takes into account only the interruptions resulting from the epidemic in the first quarter of the year, while at the moment it is difficult to predict how the situation will develop in the next quarters. Be that as it may, it is already clear that in order for the national GDP growth rate to reach the target 6% by the end of this year, the Chinese authorities will have to take a number of systemic measures.

Risks in the short term (3-6 months)

All sectors, one way or another related to passenger traffic, will be the first to suffer. Some Chinese companies operating in the transport sector, services and retail receive a significant share of their annual profits precisely during the celebration of the Chinese New Year. Given that this year during the festive season, movement around the country was severely limited due to quarantine measures, many enterprises, especially small ones, may find themselves in a difficult situation. It should also be borne in mind that the role of the service sector in the Chinese economy has increased greatly since 2003. Personal consumption accounts for about 40% of national GDP. At the same time, we can expect that in the near future household consumption will remain at a record low level, which was established during the trade war between China and the United States. The amount of "free" money at the disposal of households is growing faster than the volume of personal consumption, which means that consumers, worried about unclear prospects for the future, have switched to a savings model of behavior.

The next consequence of the epidemic outbreak will be interruptions in international supply chains and value addition. The shutdown of Chinese factories, which in the future may drag on for more than one month, will cause interruptions in supply chains and value creation around the world. Cambodia, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia are especially dependent on the supply of intermediate products from the PRC (and therefore vulnerable in the context of the suspension of such supplies). Moreover, Japan and South Korea in this situation are doubly vulnerable - not only as importers, but also as exporters: the enterprises of these two countries sell intermediate products and raw materials to the factories of the Celestial Empire, many of which have closed indefinitely. The global auto industry, ICT sector and electronics manufacturing are expected to be hit hardest as a result of the epidemic.

Chinese consumers have already become almost the main target audience for a number of sectors of the global market. Given that this audience, as noted above, has switched to a rigid savings model of behavior, business in a number of industries may miss significant volumes of profit. For example, according to a forecast McKinsey published in 2019, this year Chinese consumers will account for 36% of total sales in the luxury goods segment. In other words, today there are a huge number of companies in the world that depend both on Chinese demand and on Chinese production capacity - for example, they strongly depend on the latter. Apple Given this fact, the volume of inventory of Chinese enterprises is one of the key factors that can give business the opportunity to overcome the period of downtime of production facilities with minimal losses. Of course, no warehouse stocks are endless, and much in this situation depends on how long the restrictions on the transportation of goods between China and other countries imposed in connection with the epidemic will remain in force. According to current estimates, most foreign enterprises operating in the electronics production and sale segment will have enough inventory until approximately the end of March or early April.

Risks in the medium and long term

Increased macroeconomic imbalance: high inflation will not allow China to soften monetary policy (the growth of the consumer price index in January 2020 amounted to 5.4% - compared to only 1.7% for the same period last year). At the same time, the Chinese authorities have set a very ambitious goal for the current year - to achieve a doubling of GDP growth rates compared to 2010, and for this, Beijing will somehow have to take a number of systemic measures. Despite the fact that the People's Bank of China is unlikely to raise the key rate and act more "targeted," one can expect a weakening of the yuan. If the yuan against the dollar falls to 7.20 yuan or more per dollar, a significant outflow of capital from the country may begin. To achieve growth, companies will have to increase the share of borrowed funds in working capital, while for some companies that are already operating with a sufficiently high debt burden, servicing additional loans may be problematic. As a result, we can expect an increase in the number of payment defaults in almost all sectors of the market, but primarily in the transport sector, retail, automotive and ICT sectors.

Political risks: Dr. Li Wenliang, the doctor who first publicly announced the new coronavirus and tried to sound the alarm, and whom the authorities not only ignored, but also accused of "spreading groundless rumors," recently died from the very coronavirus. After his death, a wave of popular discontent swept across the country. Given the deteriorating economic situation, there is a risk that discontent arising from the actions of the authorities in this situation will develop into general dissatisfaction with the general public with the political situation in the country and the existing regime. In addition to this, the country expects a surge in unemployment associated with the shutdown of factories in quarantine areas. At the moment, much depends on how the Chinese authorities will manage the development of the situation in the next few months and whether they will be able to provide 60 million people living in settlements cut off from the outside world due to quarantine measures, medical and any other necessary assistance.

It is also worth noting that the current situation can demonstrate to entrepreneurs and authorities around the world how much they directly or indirectly depend on China and international supply chains and value creation "passing" through it. This, in turn, could push businesses and authorities to reconsider the international order and redistribute transnational economic chains in order to reduce their dependence on Chinese imports or demand, which is unlikely to benefit the Chinese economy.

Japan's largest telecom operator calls on 200 thousand of its employees to work from home

In mid-February 2020, the largest Japan telecom operator Nippon Telegraph & Telephone called on 200 thousand of its employees to work from home to avoid travel to work during rush hour and protect themselves from. coronavirus More. here

IDC: How coronavirus will help the ICT industry

On February 16, 2020, IDC analysts published a study in which they reported that the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus in China not only undermines the global economy, but also has the potential to favorably affect the development of the ICT industry and opens up new business opportunities for developers of information and communication technologies. Read more here.

Mobile World Congress exhibition in Barcelona canceled due to coronavirus

The international exhibition of the mobile industry Mobile World Congress (MWC), which was supposed to be held in Barcelona from February 24 to 27, was canceled due to the massive refusal of companies to take part in it provoked by the coronavirus, writes País on February 12.

According to the newspaper, the leadership of the organizer of the event, the GSMA association, which represents the interests of mobile operators, made such a decision on Wednesday following the meeting.

More than 20 companies refused to participate in MWC, including, Ericsson,, Sony LG Umidigi,,,,, Nvidia, NTT Docomo Gigaset Vivo Amazon, McAfee ARCEP,, Deutsche Telekom STMicroelectronics,,,, and. Nokia Rakuten AT&T The Spanish Orange Vodafone authorities urged the companies to be calm and asked not to panic.

How the coronavirus epidemic will affect the economy of the PRC and neighboring Asian countries: an analysis of Coface experts

On January 23, the Chinese authorities recognized the coronavirus, the outbreak of which began in Wuhan, a class B infection - SARS was assigned to the same class at one time. Beijing has deployed a range of measures aimed at curbing the spread of the disease, including completely isolating 16 major cities, which are home to about 50 million people. Restrictions on international passenger traffic were also introduced - in particular, the United States, Hong Kong and Taiwan stopped flights with the PRC.

The consequence of the epidemic outbreak was a sharp decrease in passenger traffic - moreover, during the Chinese New Year season, the most popular two-week travel season among Chinese citizens: on average, more than 3 billion passenger traffic occurs in one such season. Measures to combat the spread of the disease will lead to a drop in business income in a number of sectors, according to experts from the international group Coface, specializing in trade insurance and risk management. First of all, negative consequences will manifest themselves in the transport sector, retail and services. It is too early to talk about how the epidemic will affect the growth rate of GDP in the Celestial Empire, but all signs indicate that it will slow down.

While the new coronavirus does not even have its own name, it is known to specialists under the codename 2019-nCoV. It is believed that the first cases of infection occurred on the market in Wuhan - probably as a result of eating meat from an infected animal. Local authorities in the first days after the outbreak tried to prevent widespread disclosure of information about infections, but Beijing intervened in person, closed the market for quarantine, recognized the new virus as a class B infection and introduced a number of measures to prevent the spread of the disease, including a ban on movement. A separate hospital was built to treat the sick, since one of the main reasons for the spread of the disease was internal cross-contamination in healthcare institutions. Beijing also removed the mayor of Wuhan from office and harshly warned local authorities in all other cities and provinces about the inadmissibility of silencing new outbreaks of the disease.

Such an operational and decisive reaction of the PRC authorities, however, could not dispel the fears of the players in the international financial market. The problem also lies in the fact that the outbreak of the epidemic coincided with the Chinese New Year and a long two-week vacation, during which almost 3 billion passenger traffic takes place. For many enterprises, this period is the most important of the year, because it is at this time that they receive the vast majority of their annual revenue. Carriers, retailers and the service sector can be expected to be the first to suffer due to the epidemic. More important, however, is how events develop in the future: if the situation worsens, consumers across China can begin to severely limit themselves in spending and save all "free" money until better times.

For China's industry, the epidemic will also not pass without consequences. China is involved in a host of international manufacturing chains, and some are already broken. Hubei province, from where the coronavirus began to spread, is located in central China and therefore is an important transport and logistics hub for the whole country. In addition, the province has the production facilities of Chinese automobile concerns, as well as metallurgical, petrochemical, textile, agri-food and other enterprises. Of course, during the quarantine period, business can sell goods from warehouse stocks located in other provinces, but if the quarantine period is delayed, the downtime of Chinese factories can affect not only the economy of the Celestial Empire itself, but also the international market as a whole.

The SARS epidemic at one time did not have a significant impact on the Chinese economy. Sales of retailers and automakers declined slightly, but quickly returned to the previous indicators. The stock market of the PRC also showed not the best dynamics for 2-3 months after the beginning of the epidemic, but quickly returned to the rut after the initial stage of the epidemic outbreak. The impact of the coronavirus epidemic on stock markets can be estimated no earlier than March 16, when the PRC authorities publish indicators of business activity for January-February. At this stage, it is difficult to predict what effect the coronavirus will have on the growth rates of Chinese and world GDP, however, taking into account the general slowdown in the dynamics of the expansion of the PRC market, it can be assumed that the coronavirus will at least become one of the factors in the deterioration of key indicators of the development of the China market this year.

Risks

1. Decline in GDP growth: at this stage, it is too early to give a specific forecast, but in general, as noted above, the coronavirus may become one of the negative factors due to which the Chinese market will slow down growth rates by the end of 2020.

2. An increase in the number of payment defaults and bankruptcies: in sectors that will suffer the most from quarantine measures associated with the coronavirus epidemic, the number of bankruptcies and payment defaults may increase in the near future. First of all, we are talking about the transport sector, retail and the service sector. However, if the situation worsens, the heavy industry of Hubei province, especially the auto industry, the textile industry and the information and communication technology sector, will also suffer.

3. "Cooling" neighboring Asian markets: On average, Chinese tourists spend $130 billion a year abroad. 20% of this amount is in Hong Kong, 15% in Macau, 6% in Thailand and 5% in Japan. Restriction of movement associated with quarantine may lead to the fact that countries dependent on the tourism industry may miss the usual volumes of profit.

Closing all Apple Stores in China

In early February 2020, Apple closed all its official stores on the mainland, China that is, in fact, throughout the country. The reason is the spread of the coronavirus. More. here

Google closed all its offices in China due to coronavirus

At the end of January 2020, Google closed all of its offices in China due to the coronavirus outbreak. The measures covered all offices in mainland China, as well as the internet giant's offices in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Read more here.

Chinese companies massively switch to remote work

At the end of January 2020, companies in China advised employees to work from home in an attempt to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus. Businesses are also offering workers longer vacations and advising workers returning from the hardest-hit areas not to go to work immediately.

The Chinese government also extended the New Year holidays by three days. Bytedance, which owns video-sharing platform TikTok (a social network), and Chinese gaming giant Tencent have ordered employees to work from home. Restaurant chain Hotpot Haidilao closed its branches across China for a week. And the Suzhou city government said local businesses would be closed until at least February 8.

Several companies, including Swiss banking group UBS (UBS, United Business Systems) and developer Country Garden, have ordered employees returning from Wuhan city or Hubei province to have an incubation period at home. In Hong Kong, the stock exchange canceled the Lunar New Year ceremony due to concerns about infection.

Global markets have also suffered: investors fear that quarantine measures will have a negative impact on the global economy. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index of stocks fell 2% after the Chinese government extended the holidays. Stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, which were supposed to open on January 31, were closed until February 2. Markets have fallen prices for everything from oil to copper, as traders bet on a decline in global demand during the isolation of Chinese cities. The price of oil fell 2.2% despite efforts by Saudi Arabia's energy ministry to ease market fluctuations. Copper prices in London fell 5.5%, the steepest decline in copper values in five years.^[7]

Huawei canceled conference for developers due to coronavirus

At the end of January 2020, Huawei postponed a major developer conference in connection with the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. The HDC.Cloud 2020 conference was planned to be held in Shenzhen from February 11 to 12, but to ensure the safety of participants, the event was postponed to March 27-28. Read more here.

Notes