Budget of Russia

Main article: Russian economy

Deficit and budget surplus

Main article: Russian budget deficit

Debentures

Main article: Debt of Russia

Income

Taxes

Main article: Taxes in Russia

Customs Service Transfers

Main article: Transfers of the FCS to the budget of the Russian Federation

Dividends of state-owned companies

Main article: Dividends of state-owned companies in Russia

Cash execution of the budget

Main item: Cash execution of the budget

2024

A sharp increase in revenues in the first quarter to 8.7 trillion rubles with expenses - 9.3 trillion

Oil and gas revenues up 80% in February

Oil and gas budget revenues Russia in February 2024 increased by more than 80% compared to the previous year and exceeded $10 billion due to rising oil prices, as its producers overcame Western sanctions.

Revenues to the budget from taxes on oil and gas increased in February to 945.6 billion rubles. Revenue growth is associated with a reduction in discounts on Russian oil.

Revenues from oil and gas taxes in Russia in March 2024 almost doubled compared to the previous year amid rising world oil prices and producers adapting to sanctions.

Tax revenues from oil and gas rose to 1.31 trillion rubles.

2023

The share of the closed part of the budget reached a record 22.6%

The share of the closed part of the budget Russia for 2023 reached a record 22.6% in the total amount of allocations. Such data were released in April 2024.

As RBC writes with reference to the draft federal law "On the execution of the federal budget for 2023," posted by the Ministry of Finance for public discussion, the previous maximum closed expenditures of the federal budget dated back to 2016 - then it was measured at 21.7%. In 2016, defense loans guaranteed by the state were repaid ahead of schedule. In 2022, the authorities did not disclose information about 19.1% of expenses. In 2024, it is planned that the figure will exceed the result of 2023 and reach 26.8%, according to the publication of the publication.

The total costs of the federal budget (in closed and open areas) for 2023 reached 32.35 trillion rubles, or 11% higher than planned. Of these, 25 trillion rubles were distributed between various departments in the open part. The Ministry of Finance spent the most (7.52 trillion rubles), then the Ministry of Defense (4.53 trillion rubles) and the Ministry of Internal Affairs (1.37 trillion rubles).

Closed means government spending, the belonging of which to a particular direction and type of spending, as well as to the manager of budget funds, the financial authorities of the country prefer not to disclose. Usually, the bulk of them falls on the "power" sector, including national defense and security, as well as law enforcement.

The Russian budget system has a principle of openness, according to which the budget is open and accessible, but nevertheless may contain secret articles, explains Vladimir Klimanov, director of the RANEPA regional policy center. Such articles may be included in the federal treasury, but not in regional and local budgets.

In general, this is justified and fair in terms of ensuring national security, as well as achieving other important goals. I don't see anything extraordinary in this, "he added in a conversation with RBC.[1]

The Federal Property Management Agency transferred 398 billion rubles to the budget for the year

In 2023, the Federal Property Management Agency provided revenues to the Russian budget in the amount of 398 billion rubles. Of these, dividends of state-owned companies account for 339 billion rubles. The agency released such data on March 13, 2024. Read more here.

TFR replenished the budget by 100 billion rubles due to confiscation from criminals

In 2023, the Investigative Committee of Russia (TFR) returned more than 100 billion rubles to the treasury by confiscating funds from criminals. This is stated in the report of the department, published on March 5, 2024. Read more here.

The Accounts Chamber has achieved a record 10 billion rubles from government agencies and companies to return the budget for 26 years

The Accounts Chamber in 2023 provided a record refund to the budget for 10 years. The amount of funds returned amounted to more than 26 billion rubles. This was reported on March 7, 2024 by Vedomosti with reference to the report of the Accounts Chamber for 2023 sent to the State Duma. Read more here.

5.85% of GDP goes to defense spending

28 regions of Russia ended the year with a budget surplus

At the end of 2023, the total own income of Russian regions excluding new territories DPR(,, and LPR) Hersonskaya Zaporozhskaya regions amounted to 19.25 trillion, which is rubles 9.5% more than in the previous year. At the same time, expenses rose by 11%, reaching 19.51 trillion rubles. Such figures are given in a report Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) published on February 2, 2024.

28 regions of Russia ended 2023 with a budget surplus. The largest surplus in nominal terms was recorded in the Sverdlovsk region - 50.8 billion rubles, or 13% of tax and non-tax revenues (NND). In addition, high indicators were noted in the Leningrad Region and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - plus 37.1 billion rubles (16% of LND) and 30.6 billion rubles (8% of LND), respectively. Among the annexed territories, the Zaporizhzhya region stands out, which completed 2023 with a surplus of 1.2 billion rubles (13% of NND).

Total own income of Russian regions amounted to 19.25 trillion rubles

At the same time, 61 regions (including new ones) exceeded revenues. The most significant deficit was shown by Moscow (minus 189.9 billion rubles, or 5% of NND), St. Petersburg (minus 26.5 billion rubles, or 2%) and Tatarstan (minus 23.5 billion rubles, or 6%). Among the new regions, the largest budget deficit in absolute terms was recorded in the DPR - 17.4 billion rubles, or 32% of the NND. The LPR has a deficit of 9.4 billion rubles (24% of the NND), the Kherson region - 4.8 billion rubles (81% of the NND).

The total excess of expenses over income for all Russian entities (taking into account new regions) at the end of 2023 amounted to 292 billion rubles. In total, in 85 "old" subjects, costs increased by 1.9 trillion rubles in relation to 2022. The largest increase was in the areas of housing and communal services (by 552 billion rubles), National Economy (by 509 billion rubles) and Education (by 422 billion rubles). At the same time, the National Economy section dominated the total spending of budgets, which accounted for 23.7% of all expenses.^[2]

LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions in 2023 received 513 billion rubles from the state budget

both Donetsk Luganskaya People's Republics Zaporozhskaya Hersonskaya and regions received about 513 billion rubles gratuitous revenues from the federal budget in 2023. This is evidenced by the agency's data ACRE published in January 2024. For calculations, analysts took advantage of the latest available data from the "" system for Electronic budget December 28, 2023. More. here

Budget revenues from oil and gas exports decreased by 24% to 8.82 trillion rubles

Russian budget revenues from oil and gas taxes decreased by 24% compared to the previous year. In 2023, the state received 8.82 trillion rubles ($99.3 billion) in taxes from the oil and gas industry. The decline reflects falling oil prices and a decline in gas exports.

8.8 trillion rubles is about a quarter less than in the record 2022, but above the average over the past ten years.

From April to October 2023, Russia's revenues from the main sources of oil dollars that bring taxes almost doubled. Russia's net budget revenues from oil sales in October rose to $11.3 billion and accounted for 31% of the country's total net budget revenues for the month, according to Bloomberg calculations, which are based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance but smooth out tax revenues from profits.

This figure was the highest since May 2022 and exceeded the figures of any month a year before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.

Receipt of 28.9 billion rubles from privatization to the budget instead of a plan for 1.8 billion rubles

The Russian budget for 2023 received 28.9 billion rubles from privatization instead of a plan for 1.8 billion rubles. The Federal Property Management Agency told about this at the end of December 2023. Read more here.

Receipt of 12 billion rubles of unreasonable income of officials

For incomplete 2023, bailiffs in Russia transferred to the budget about 12.5 billion rubles, recovered from the claims of the prosecutor's office from officials as unconfirmed legally income. This was reported to the Federal Bailiff Service (FSSP) on December 8, 2023.

The statement clarifies that the funds were sent to the budget of the Russian Federation as part of enforcement proceedings. The latter were initiated with the aim of confiscating money, the legality of receiving which has not been confirmed in any way.

It is noted that 12.5 billion rubles takes into account a monetary amount equivalent to the value of property. We are talking about objects, the possession of which is also unreasonable from the point of view of legislation and, because of this, subject to circulation to the income of the country.

Moreover, within the framework of the relevant enforcement proceedings, the bailiffs transferred to the authorized bodies about 1.2 billion securities and 1.5 thousand objects of movable property. At the same time, more than three thousand properties were confiscated.

In December 2023, the FSSP cited data according to which bailiffs for ten months of 2023 collected fines in the amount of 1.6 billion rubles from those convicted of bribes. Compared to 2022, the amount of fines collected by bailiffs increased by 40%. According to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, in the first nine months of 2023, almost 9 thousand accused of corruption appeared before the court.

By December 2023, Russia has a law allowing the state to collect officials' money from bank accounts through the court if the amount of receipt exceeds official income over the past three years, and the legality of receiving funds has not been confirmed. The law was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022.^[3]

Ministry of Industry and Trade: Tax revenues to the budget from the digital labeling system during its operation reached 471 billion rubles

Tax revenues to the budget Russia from the digital labeling system during its operation reached 471 billion. rubles Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov This was announced by the Deputy Prime Minister - Head of the Russian Federation on September 27, 2023 at a meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with the Vladimir Putin Cabinet of Ministers. More. here

The government approved a reduction in budget expenditures by 450 billion rubles

The Russian government approved a reduction in the country's budget expenditures by 450 billion rubles in 2024. We are talking about a 10 percent decrease in spending on so-called unprotected items. This became known on July 19, 2023.

According to Vedomosti, the total amount of sequester will be relatively small relative to the total amount of spending. The publication notes that there is no definition of protected articles in the Budget Code, but the term is often used in budget discussions, including in official documents. Most often, they mean articles that are related to the fulfillment of social obligations (pensions, salaries, benefits), military spending and spending on state security.

A broader interpretation is also possible - for example, spending on national projects, the implementation of the president's messages and the rest of the government's socio-economic measures. In this case, the number of articles for sequestration will be noticeably reduced. The interlocutor of the publication clarified that the discussion of cost cuts primarily included articles that did not have financial justifications and calculations. What kind of costs are proposed to be reduced, he did not specify.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in July 2023 that a 10% budget cut refers to non-social spending and will not affect social benefits. The minister said that frontal budget cuts imply "an even reduction in spending for all ministries and departments." He also promised that the state's defense spending would not be affected.

According to the law on the budget for 2023-2025, in 2024, expenses will amount to 29.4 trillion rubles. But, according to one of Vedomosti's sources, the amount of spending "seems to be much higher."^[4]

Russia subsidizes more than 40% of the budget of Abkhazia

Russian Federation subsidizes more than 40% of the budget of Abkhazia. This was announced on July 4, 2023. Minister of Economic Development of Russia Maxim Reshetnikov More. here

Rising defense spending during a special operation in Ukraine

Within the framework of the consolidated budget of Russia for January-February 2023, total expenditures amounted to 8.7 trillion, excluding interbudgetary transfers, the balance of which forms zero. The growth of expenses in relation to January-February 2022 amounted to 41% or 2.5 trillion rubles.

In the structure of expenditures, the federal budget accounted for almost 2/3 (5.7 trillion rubles). Usually 50-52%, and at the end of 2022, the federal budget had a share of 56% in the consolidated budget. The forcing of expenses was due to the activity of the federal budget and the advance of public procurement at the beginning of the year, Spydell Finance wrote.

In the structure of growth in total spending by 2.5 trillion per year, almost 95% fell on only five areas: The Ministry of Defense through defense spending, which increased 3.9 times over the year from 525 billion to 2036 billion or plus 1511 billion rubles, then the national economy - plus 54% YoY or 298 billion rubles, social policy - plus 11% or 276 billion, education - plus 24% or 162 billion and health care - plus 20% or 126 billion.

In January-February 2022, defense spending was only in fifth place in terms of distributed funds, occupying a share of 8.5% in total spending, and in 2023 defense spending was in second place immediately after social policy, occupying a share of 23.3%.

2022

Budget Expenditure Structure

When assessing the structure of the consolidated budget of Russia for 2022, it turns out that spending on national security is decreasing, although there is an erroneous idea that they dominate other budget items.

The peak of spending on law enforcement was in 2013 (8.5% of all expenditures of the consolidated budget), and by 2022 the share of spending decreased to 5.2% (the lowest figure since at least 2011).

In the structure of spending on national security, the most significant items of spending are the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian Guard, the FSB/FSO, firefighters, the Federal Penitentiary FSIN, border guards and the prosecutor's office.

Despite the SVO in Ukraine, national defense spending did not even show its maximum - 10.1% of all budget expenditures in 2022, compared to a maximum of 12.1% in 2016, although it is higher than the average share of spending of 8.8% over the past 10 years.

Healthcare - the average share for 10 years until 2022 was 9.9%, the current share is 10.1%, the peak logically occurred in 2020 during the COVID-19 period.

Education - the average share for 10 years is 10.5%, at the moment 9.9% (at least since 2016) and there is a downward trend.

The national economy is an average share of 13.8%, in 2022 - 15.2% with an increasing trend. Spending on the national economy is one of the main drivers of GDP growth and economic sustainability from 2020.

Housing and communal services - the average share for 10 years is 3.9%, and in 2022 - 5.1% and again an increase trend. Some significant part went to the restoration of infrastructure in new regions, but how much? No answer.

Social policy devours a third of state spending, and in 2017 it showed a maximum in the priority of the state (share 37.1%), interrupting the strongest consumer income crisis in 20 years, since in 2015-2016 the accumulated decline in income was the strongest since 1998. Now the trend towards a decrease in social policy, wrote Spydell Finance.

Since 2019, expenses are concentrated mainly on the economy and infrastructure, including housing and communal services (20.3% in 2022 compared to 16.8% in 2018). This made it possible to change the vector of economic development from the protracted degradation of 2014-2017 to limited, but still growth.

Government spending can be reduced into four enlarged categories.

• Human capital - education, health care, culture, cinematography, physical education and sports.

• Economy and infrastructure - national economy, housing and communal services (including expenses for urban improvement), environmental protection.

• State apparatus - national security, law enforcement, national defense, media and national spending (functioning of the government, legislative and executive power, judicial system, financing of all ministries and official apparatus, international relations, fundamental research, etc.).

• Social spending - pensions, benefits and all targeted subsidies in favor of the population.

In assessing government spending, taking into account inflation, state priorities can be assessed.

From 2013 to 2019, social spending remained at the same level in real terms, increased significantly in 2020 on antique support and again slightly reduced from 2021.

Spending on human capital decreased in real terms from 2013 to 2017, increased significantly from 2018 to 2020 and is also stagnating with a downward trajectory from 2021.

Spending on the economy and infrastructure fell sharply from 2014 (support for the banking system) to 2016, and from 2017 a steady upward trend formed, where spending continued to grow in 2022.

The state's emphasis on the economy and infrastructure was one of the main stabilizing factors that make it possible to withdraw the economy from the protracted stagnation of 2013-2017, and save from collapse in 2020 and 2022.

The state apparatus was not a priority from 2013 to 2021 (real expenses decreased by 7%), but from 2022 a sharp increase, which will continue in 2023.

From 2023, the state apparatus (mainly through defense and security) will dominate to the detriment of other items of expenditure, primarily human capital, since the compression of social spending is legally limited. Spending on the economy can continue to grow, since the state provides the main investment and demand.

Budget expenditures to support families with children exceeded 1 trillion rubles

In 2022 Russia , more than 1.06 trillion was spent from the budget rubles to support families with children. The Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov told reporters about this on December 27, 2022.

Supporting families with children, supporting poor citizens is the main task of the state. Therefore, under any circumstances, we will finance. We will better abandon the roads, abandon some infrastructure facilities, but this will be financed, "he said.

For children aged 8 to 17 years in Russia in 2022, 410.5 billion rubles were allocated from the budget, from 3 to 7 years old - 341.4 billion rubles, for benefits to single parents of children from 8 to 17 years old - 60.9 billion rubles, for benefits to pregnant women - 17 billion rubles, for payment for the first child - 154.2 billion rubles, for the payment for the third - 80.2 billion rubles, for two payments for children from 3 to 7 years old and from 8 to 16 years old - 751.9 billion rubles.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, additional budget expenditures in connection with the indexation of the minimum wage and pensions in 2022 amounted to 409 billion rubles and will be postponed to 2023. Additional federal budget expenditures in 2022 in connection with indexation by 10%: minimum wage - 5.6 billion; insurance pensions - 371 billion (PFR); state pension pensions - 32.4 billion. All indexing costs will be postponed to 2023, as this event is "ongoing." This also applies to children's benefits, the Ministry of Finance will continue to pay them within the framework of a single allowance, the department added.

At the end of November 2022, President Vladimir Putin signed a law establishing a single allowance in connection with the birth and upbringing of a child. The single benefit will combine payments to women who registered early in pregnancy, as well as payments in connection with the birth or adoption of a child under 17 years old.^[5]

7.51 billion rubles to the budget from the FAS

In 2022, revenues from the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) amounted to 7.51 billion rubles, which is 251% higher than the initial targets. The department's expenses reached 6.8 billion rubles, or 99.1% of the increased limits of budget obligations. This is stated in the conclusion of the Accounts Chamber (JV) on the results of an external audit of the implementation of the Federal Law "On the Federal Budget for 2022 and the Planning Period of 2023 and 2024" and budget reports on the execution of the federal budget for 2022 in the FAS. Read more here.

17.25 billion rubles of unexplained income

In 2022, the Russian budget received 17.25 billion rubles of unexplained income. This is stated in the report of the Accounts Chamber (JV) on the execution of the budget by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The document was released in July 2023.

Unaccounted for also include income (10.02 billion rubles) from personal income tax payments from amounts ranging from 5 million rubles, excise tax on liquid steel (4.9 billion rubles) and the return of the balance of transfers of previous years from extrabudgetary funds (3.6 billion rubles). The Ministry of Finance has established the type and ownership of revenues to the budget. The total amount of clarifications reached 879.1 million rubles, including for unexplained payments - in the amount of 21.2 million rubles.

Verification and analysis of the implementation by the Ministry of Finance of Russia of budgetary powers to organize the preparation and execution of the federal budget in terms of income indicate shortcomings in the forecasting and execution of federal budget revenues, - said in the materials of the joint venture.

It is noted that in just 2022, the Russian budget received 245 types of income not taken into account in the forecast, totaling 59.12 billion rubles, with the exception of income received abroad.

The amount reflected on income not clear in 2022 is receipts with erroneous details, the principal amount was in the last days of the year. First, such money is credited as unexplained receipts, then the Treasury clarifies information on them from administrators, the press service of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation said in a statement.

They explained that such a clarification was carried out immediately in January 2023.

This is a standard procedure that can occur during the year at any time. After specifying the details, the funds are credited to the types of income to which they belong, - added to the press service of the department.

Conclusion of the Accounts Chamber on the results of an external audit of the implementation of the Federal Law On the Federal Budget for 2022

The debt of departments to the state budget of the Russian Federation increased by 3.3 trillion rubles

Accounts receivable from federal spending bodies in 2022 increased by 3.26 trillion rubles (or 53.3%). This is stated in the official conclusion of the Accounts Chamber (JV) for the implementation of the law on the federal budget of the country.

As RBC writes with reference to this document, the growth of debt has been accelerating over the past four years: in 2019, its volume increased by 6.4%, in 2020 - by 18.2%, in 2021 - by 28.5%. At the same time, the growth rate of accounts receivable on expenses in 2021 and 2022 significantly exceeded the growth rate of the federal budget expenditures themselves - by 19.3 pp in 2021 and by 27.6 pp - in 2022.

According to the results of the analysis of receivables, it can be concluded that its growth is mainly observed under government contracts, the terms of which provide for advance payments from 50% to 90% of their amount, as well as for advance gratuitous transfers to legal entities, the joint venture conclusion says.

According to the Accounts Chamber, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is in the lead in the open part of the budget for receivables on issued advances (balance as of January 1, 2023 - 228.5 billion rubles), Ministry of Transport (204.3 billion rubles - its open advances increased 28 times, from 7 billion), Ministry of Construction (183.7 billion rubles), Ministry of Health (147.3 billion rubles), Rosavtodor (137.3 billion rubles), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (126.9 billion rubles).

Among the reasons for the increase in advances issued for this group of departments, auditors name the obligations of legal entities that were not fulfilled in the reporting period - recipients of subsidies (Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education and Science), as well as unfinished settlements within the framework of capital investments in state property objects (Ministry of Transport, Rosavtodor).

The growth of accounts receivable from federal ministries and departments is associated with a change in the system of work within the framework of public procurement, says Vladimir Klimanov, director of the RANEPA Regional Policy Center.

Previously, they left the advance payment, but now it is made almost mandatory. The fact that the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Transport appear in the statistics as leaders in debt suggests that we are talking in many respects about the state defense order and the construction of roads, which is quite active in different parts of the country, - he explained.[6]

FSS budget revenues decreased by 28%, but exceeded 1 trillion rubles

Budget revenues of the Social Insurance Fund (FSS) in 2022 reached 1.03 trillion rubles, which is almost 28%, or 398.9 million rubles, less than a year earlier. The decline is associated with a decrease in revenues of interbudgetary transfers, according to the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation in early April 2023. Read more here.

The amount of unused federal budget funds 783.8 billion rubles

The volume of unused funds of the federal budget of Russia at the end of 2022 amounted to 783.8 billion rubles, according to the analytical note of the Accounts Chamber on the progress of the execution of the federal budget for 2022 (March 2023).

Additional payments to Gazprom save the budget

The Russian federal budget ended November 2022 with a surplus of 428 billion, which is even higher than last year, when there was a surplus of 352 billion. Almost half of all federal budget revenues were formed by only one company - Gazprom.

In November, Gazprom's dividends over 600 billion and another 416 billion excess withdrawals under MET were credited to the accounts of the Ministry of Finance, which were distributed in uniform tranches from October to December inclusive.

All this without taking into account the planned taxes that Gazprom pays. Only one company and half the budget, given the revenues associated with the domestic economy and imports - incredible! The importance of Gazprom for the economy and budget is unprecedented!

Thus, without the factor of irregular payments from Gazprom, the deficit would have amounted to about 600 billion rubles per month.

What are the trends in the Russian budget? In principle, everything is not so bad, the Spydell Today channel noted. The table reflects key periods: from March to November, as the period from the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine and June-November, as the moment of breaking the upward trend and the beginning of negative trends in the budget.

All the main budget revenues were formed from January to April on a high basis of oil and gas revenues, from May the growth momentum was repaid, from June there was a reversal.

From March to November, total revenues increased by 4.5% YoY at par, but it is necessary to keep in mind irregular payments from Gazprom of 1.5 trillion in October-November. Without Gazprom, the drop in revenues could be 3.6%.

Oil and gas increased by 24.5%, non-oil and gas decreased by 6.8%, where revenues related to domestic production increased by 14.8%, which is comparable to inflation during this period and this is very good, given the circumstances.

Income related to imports fell by almost 30%, and other income decreased by 25% (it includes dividends, various fines, etc.).

Spending is growing by 23.5%, and the budget balance has been reduced to literally zero (a surplus of 20 billion compared to a surplus of 2.1 trillion last year).

Sharp deterioration in the situation with oil and gas revenues in the second half of the year

Export duty in ruble terms sank 5.4 times from 289 billion in November 2021 to 53 billion in 2022.

A negative duty of 8 billion is recorded for gas, i.e. a return from the budget compared to the planned 220 billion per month of revenues that could come within the framework of the current price situation and deliveries in the format of January-May 2022.

For oil and oil products, the duty fell almost twice in November 2022 - now the budget receives 60-65 billion against the planned 130-150 billion per month in export duty.

The budget was stabilized due to an exclusively excessive MET imposed on Gazprom in the amount of 416 billion rubles per month from October to December (the period of crediting funds to the budget).

One-time payments from Gazprom formed half of the total oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, which indicates systemic problems with replenishing the treasury.

Without Gazprom's excess MET factor, compared to last year, oil and gas budget revenues fell by half.

From January to November, total oil and gas revenues amounted to 10.6 trillion rubles, compared with 8.2 trillion in 2021 (an increase of 29%), but all positive momentum was formed from January to April, when revenues were almost twice as high as 2021 (4.77 trillion against 2.5 trillion).

In May and June, they began to align with last year, and since July they went into negative dynamics with a fall of 2.5% (4.28 trillion in 2022 compared to 4.4 trillion in 2021). However, almost 840 billion of additional revenues from Gazprom are taken into account here, "therefore, the decrease, cleared of one-time payments, is 22%.

As noted in past reviews of oil and gas revenues, from October the negative dynamics will increase due to the base effect (in October 2021 - April 2022 there was a historical maximum of revenues).

To this is added the embargo on oil of Western countries from December 5, 2022 and oil products from February 5, the actual embargo on pipeline gas from August by Russia and the fall in energy prices.

2023 can be difficult, it will put pressure on the ruble, the Spydell Finance channel noted.

Tax collection in September decreased by 1.7 times compared to the March indicator

Tax collections in September 2022 decreased 1.7 times compared to the March figure. This is evidenced by the data of the report of the analytical service of the audit and consulting network FinExpertiza.

Increase in tax revenues by 32% or 4.1 trillion rubles in the first half of the year

Tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2022 increased by 32%, or 4.1 trillion rubles. - Head of the Federal Tax Service.

Revenue growth in March by 34% to a record 4.1 trillion rubles

Tax revenues to the Russian budget in March increased by 34.5% and reached a record 4.1 trillion rubles. Experts attribute the increase in fees to the super profits of commodity exporters, but warn that the inflow of money to the budget may decrease sharply.

2021

Dynamics of budget revenues from oil and gas sales

The Russian budget for the year was executed with a surplus of 0.4% of GDP or 515 billion rubles

At the end of 2021, the Russian budget was executed with a surplus of 0.4% of GDP. On January 14, 2022, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters about this. With income of 25.3 trillion rubles. the expenses of 2021 amounted to 24.8 trillion rubles, the Ministry of Finance said. The federal budget of 2021 is closed with a surplus of 515 billion rubles. This result, against the background of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, looks noticeably better than last year's deficit of 3.8% of GDP or 4.1 trillion rubles. The increase in oil prices and the restoration of business activity helped to balance the budget. The annual income plan was fulfilled for ten months of 2021.

The fact that the federal budget in 2021 became surplus was also reported on January 13, 2022 by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Despite significant additional costs, the government managed to maintain macroeconomic stability, the head of government emphasized. According to him, the Russian economy recovered from the shocks of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic faster than expected.

Already in the second quarter of 2021, our GDP reached a pre-pandemic level. In general, for the year we reached quite high values ​ ​ in terms of key GDP parameters, industrial production volumes, and cargo transportation. Employment recovered relatively quickly, and domestic demand remained steady. A favorable picture has developed for traditional articles of Russian exports, - said Mikhail Mishustin.

He also pointed to a decrease in the credit burden: as of the beginning of December 2021, budget loans were restructured by almost 220 billion rubles. And almost 335 billion rubles were allocated in the form of long-term loans to replace the market debt of regions and municipalities.

Initially, a deficit of 2.4% of GDP was planned for 2021. Then the Ministry of Finance announced estimates of about 1% of GDP. Also, Anton Siluanov did not rule out that the budget could be balanced. In the approved budget for 2021-2023, state treasury revenues in 2021 were expected at the level of 18.8 trillion rubles, and expenses - 21.52 trillion rubles.

At the end of December 2021, Anton Siluanov said that the budget of the Russian Federation received additional income in the amount of about 4 trillion rubles. The funds were aimed at combating COVID-19, supporting citizens and the economy.^[7]

Over 687 billion rubles will be allocated for the national project "Healthcare" in 2022-2024

On September 21, 2021, it became known about the increase in funding for the national project "Health" by several billion. In the period 2022-2024. it is planned to spend over 687 billion rubles on its implementation, according to an explanatory note to the draft federal budget. Read more here.

The Government of the Russian Federation approved the draft budget for 2022-2024

On September 21, 2021, the Russian Government approved the draft federal budget for 2022-2024. It will be submitted to the State Duma by October 1.

Russian budget revenues in 2022 are planned in the amount of 25 trillion rubles, and expenses will be at the level of 23.6 trillion rubles. The budget surplus in 2022 should amount to 1.4 trillion rubles, the document says.

Federal budget revenues in 2023 are planned at the level of 25.54 billion rubles, and in 2022 - 25.83 billion rubles. Expenses in these years should amount to 25.1 trillion rubles and 26.14 trillion rubles, respectively. Thus, in 2023 the budget will also be in surplus - 434.7 billion rubles, and in 2024 a deficit is predicted - 315.3 billion rubles. The budget surplus of the Russian Federation in 2022-2023 will be within 1% of GDP.

Funds from the planned federal budget will be used to support families with children, repair existing and build new schools, create a world-class network of campuses, treat seriously ill children, resettle emergency housing, including under the new program, transport, environmental and infrastructure projects, as well as increase payments to military personnel.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stressed that the Russian budget for three years is focused on fulfilling all obligations to citizens, social spending will not be reduced, on the contrary, an increase is envisaged.

It's a big, hard job. And it is based on one simple idea - the growth of the well-being of people, because the main thing is to take care of our citizens, - said the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation.

The explanatory note to the draft Russian federal budget until 2024 states that in 2021 Russia's GDP will grow by 4.2%, in 2022-2024 - by 3%. The authorities expect that by the end of 2021 inflation will be 5.8%, in the next three - 4%.^[8]

42% of budget revenues are generated through energy exports

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned the Kremlin in July 2021 about the need to prepare for a drop in income.

Modelling by the Finance Ministry showed that the global promotion of clean energy could lead to a significant decrease in demand for fossil fuel exports and "radical changes in the global energy balance."

"Most of our budget revenues come from commodity exports, so we need to understand how we will replace the shortfall in revenues if these forecasts turn out to be accurate," Siluanov said.

73 out of 85 constituent entities of the federation planned a deficit budget

Among the budgets for 2021, 73 out of 85 constituent entities of the federation have a deficit. Only 5 regions have a surplus and 7 regions belong to the category of regions with a balanced budget. 

The surplus budget of regions whose economic potential is low (Mari El, Karachay-Cherkessia, Mordovia, Penza, Jewish Autonomous Okrug), and the level of debt burden has been accumulated in the dock period. There is an austerity regime for such regions.

2020

Defense Cost Reduction Plan

In October 2020, the State Duma adopted in the first reading a draft law on the federal budget for 2021 and planned 2022 and 2023.

• The budget deficit in 2021 is planned at 2.75 trillion rubles. (2.4% of GDP);
• In 2022 - 1.250 trillion rubles. (1% of GDP);
• In 2023 - 1.412 trillion rubles. (1.1% of GDP).

On November 24, 2020, the State Duma at a plenary session adopted in the second, main reading, the draft budget for 2021-23. The document was approved by an overwhelming majority of votes.

Despite the pandemic, allocations for health care will go under the knife. In 2021, the budget will allocate 1.129 trillion rubles for these purposes - 135 billion rubles, or 11% less than in the current one. In the 2022 budget, medical expenses are symbolically increased (by 5 billion rubles, or 0.4%), and then again reduced in 2023 - by 34 billion rubles, to 1.1 trillion.

The end of public support programs, including increased unemployment benefits and payments to families with children, will allow the government to save on the article "social policy." Its expenses will be reduced by 172.6 billion rubles, to 5.594 trillion.

At the same time, the annual transfer to the Pension Fund, due to which the PFR in 2020 will pay almost half of all pensions in the country, will be "cut" at once by 1.263 trillion rubles (up to 3.444 trillion).

For the first time in a long time, the government is cutting defense spending. In 2021, 3.113 trillion rubles will be spent on the army and public procurement of weapons for it - 195.7 billion less than in the current one. This, however, is partially compensated by an increase in funding for other law enforcement agencies. Allocations under the article "National Security and Law Enforcement" will increase by 97.6 billion rubles, to 2.456 trillion. In total, the security forces will "eat" 5.569 trillion rubles, or 25% of the federal budget.

The government plans to save on the housing and communal services system (costs are reduced by 16%, or 61.8 billion rubles), physical education and sports (- 9.1 billion rubles), culture and cinema (-9.8 billion rubles), as well as regional support.

Budget expenditures for secret projects in Russia reached a record of 454 billion rubles

Closed expenditures of the federal budget under the section "National Economy" in 2020 set a record in the modern history of Russia - 454 billion rubles, or 13% of all expenditures of this section against 5% a year earlier. Such figures in early October 2021 were cited by RBC, citing data from the government, the Accounts Chamber and the Federal Treasury on budget execution.

The closed part of the budget indicates some expenditures on national defense, the implementation of international obligations in the field of military-technical cooperation, applied scientific research in the field of national defense. Also classified are the costs of mobilization training of the economy and the nuclear weapons complex.

In 2020, the "civil" sections of the budget (national issues, national economy, social policy, health care, culture, etc.) accounted for 838 billion rubles of closed expenses. Including in the section "National Economy" under such items, expenses of 454 billion rubles were spent, of which the overwhelming majority - in the subsection "Other issues in the field of national economy," the rest - in the subsections "Communication and informatics" and "Applied research."

Closed expenses in non-military sections of the budget are those that go to institutions and enterprises that perform some secret functions: in education - to universities that train military and specialists associated with state secrets in the national economy - to enterprises producing dual-use products.

Earlier, Rosstat switched to a methodology that takes into account state spending on long-term weapons, as well as scientific research and development when calculating GDP. However, these categories are not visible in the national accounts of Rosstat. Rosstat explained that these are the requirements of the law on state secrets.^[9]

State spending of Russia amounted to 42.15 trillion rubles

The expenditures of the consolidated budget of Russia in 2020 turned out to be a record in constant prices since the beginning of the 1990s. This was announced by Andrey Chernyavsky, a leading employee of the HSE Development Center. The calculation took into account the expenses of the federal budget, budgets of regions and municipalities and three extra-budgetary state funds.

According to the Accounts Chamber, federal spending in 2020 increased by 25% compared to 2019 amid additional anti-crisis spending by the government by at least 2.9 trillion rubles. According to the Federal Treasury, consolidated regional budgets grew by 15%, mainly due to increased health spending.

State spending in Russia as a whole in 2020 increased to 42.15 trillion rubles, of which 54% fell on federal budget expenditures. In 2019, federal budget expenditures amounted to 49%. As a percentage of the domestic gross product (GDP), expanded government spending last year amounted to 39.5%, that is, almost 5 percentage points more than the average for 2011-2019. In the crisis year 2009, when Russian GDP fell by 7.8%, they were higher - 41.4% of GDP.

According to Karen Vartapetov, a leading analyst at the S&P Global rating agency for sovereign ratings of the CIS countries, Russia has a large margin of safety in state finance, and in principle it could afford to spend more than by the end of 2020.

It's another matter for how long and at what cost. One of the problems of fiscal policy before the introduction of the current budget rule was the procyclical nature of spending (they grew when the price of oil rose, and vice versa), which increased the dependence of domestic economic parameters on fluctuations in oil prices. Planning expenses based on the conservative base oil price greatly weakened this effect, made internal conditions more stable and predictable, the analyst said.[10]

Regional budgets are executed with a deficit of 677 billion rubles.

Regional budgets in 2020 were executed with a deficit of 677 billion rubles.

Of these, 560 billion fell on 16 regions with a high share of the fuel and energy complex, most affected by the covid crisis and the fall in demand for hydrocarbons in the world.

For the maintenance of the President of Russia allocated 111 billion rubles for 4 years

As it became known on October 1, 2020, the Russian government will spend more than 111 billion rubles in four years to ensure the activities of the country's president.

According to RBC, the allocations under the budget subsection "Functioning of the President of the Russian Federation" were decided to increase by 11.8% to 27.5 billion rubles in 2021. In 2022, expenses will amount to about 27 billion rubles, which is 7.7% more than previously mentioned. In 2023, it is planned to spend 27.41 billion rubles on the activities of the president.

In 2021, it is planned to spend about 149 million rubles on the "maintenance and functioning" of the president, which is less than the previously planned 164 million rubles. Another 14.8 billion was allocated for the presidential administration, more than 1.2 billion rubles - to ensure foreign visits of delegations of the highest authorities, and 300 million rubles each year it was decided to transfer to subsidies to the Yeltsin Center.

The logistics and financial support of the president's activities is carried out by the Office of the President's Affairs - an independent federal executive body that is not part of the administration.

The increase in allocations under this subsection is explained by an increase in expenses for the maintenance of the presidential administration by 1.15 billion rubles (compared to those originally pledged) "including due to structural changes that occurred in 2020," as well as an increase in planned subsidies to non-governmental organizations by more than 2 billion rubles.

In addition, the government proposed to reserve almost 900 million rubles in the budget for 2021-2023 in case 30 new senators appear in the Federation Council, including the former president, head of United Russia Dmitry Medvedev. In September 2020, the government decided to postpone the reform of the system of material motivation of federal civil servants to 2023.^[11]

Pension Fund will receive a record 4 trillion rubles from the budget

On June 25, 2020, it became known that the Pension Fund of Russia (PFR) in 2021 will receive 4.12 trillion rubles from the federal budget. The state has never allocated such a large amount. Read more here.

Planned Cost Structure

2019

The Accounts Chamber revealed embezzlement from the budget for 2-3 billion rubles

The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation revealed embezzlement from the budget in 2019 for 2-3 billion rubles. Such data were provided by the head of the department Alexei Kudrin, presenting a report to the State Duma on July 7, 2020.

I wanted to say in 2020, but so far some of these numbers are classified, closed. Therefore, I cannot yet give you a generalized figure now... Approximately 2-3 billion [rubles in 2019] is pure theft. The rest is a violation of procurement procedures, violation of accounting, violations related to the intended purpose, misuse, - he said, speaking about the ratio of the volume of detected violations and stolen[12]

According to TASS, in total in 2019, the Accounts Chamber revealed violations by 884.6 billion rubles, which is 112 billion rubles more than in 2018. At the same time, 35% of all violations identified are violations related to incorrect accounting and incorrect compilation of other financial statements, 27%  - violations in public procurement and procurement by some legal entities, about 25% - violations  in the formation and execution of the budget.

According to Kudrin, according to the results of the work of the Accounts Chamber in 2019, 4.5 billion rubles were returned to the budget. As a result of inspections, 51 materials were sent to the Prosecutor General's Office, 22 - to other law enforcement agencies. 25 criminal cases were initiated, 20 materials are being checked. 436 officials were brought to disciplinary responsibility, of which 23 were dismissed. 40 legal entities and officials are brought to administrative responsibility.

The State Duma at a plenary meeting on July 7, 2020 took note of the report of the Accounts Chamber on the results of activities for 2019.

On the website of the Accounts Chamber, a database of reports has become available since 1999.

Now we are engaged in digitizing the reports of the Accounts Chamber from 1996 to 1999. They are still available only in print, in the third quarter we will finish this work, - said Alexei Kudrin on July 7, 2020.

Budget plan to 2022

Huge free funds accumulated in the budget system

The Bank of Russia publishes the main data in the banking sector reviews (monthly) and the Treasury (daily).

As of August 2019, in addition to the NWF at the ~ of 8 trillion rubles. rubles, including ~ 7 trillion in foreign currency, and foreign currency at the ~ of 2 trillion, bought by the Central Bank, but not yet credited to the NWF, the budget has huge balances on ruble accounts in the Central Bank and banks. In total, an additional 9 trillion rubles ~. Over the 3 years, this amount has grown 2 times from 4-5 trillion. Average expenditures of the consolidated budget increased only by 16% from 2.5 to 2.9 trillion. rubles per month.

An increase in liquidity in the banking system is recorded - the net balances of banks in the Central Bank, including OBR, increased from ~ 4.5 to ~ 6 trillion. rubles. Over the past month. This growth looks abnormal for this period of the year. In July, federal budget spending grew faster, but insignificantly - by 6% or + 0.1 trillion. by 2018 to 1.45 trillion.

The budget surplus remains - more than 0.4 trillion. in July, of which half 0.2 trillion. went into foreign currency for the NWF. In the second half of 2019, federal budget expenditures should show an increase from 12% to 21% after an increase of only 3% in the first half of the year (12% - with expenses of 18 trillion. in 2019 according to the initial version of the budget, 15% - according to the updated version of the budget and expenses of 18.3 trillion, 21% - with expenses of 18.8 trillion. according to the updated painting, taking into account the carryover balances from 2018).

The excess liquidity of the federal budget is placed by the Treasury on deposits, repurchases, swaps and other financial assets for a period of up to six months. The excess funds by August 21, 2019 exceeded 3 trillion. rubles. (orange columns). An increase of 1 trillion per month is precisely the reason for the increase in liquidity in banks. But balances in other accounts of budgetary organizations at all levels are also growing. At this time, the balances of money exceed the expenses of the consolidated budget for 3 months. If the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury and the entire budget system worked as effectively as the banking system, then the necessary liquidity balances in the accounts were measured not in months, but in days.

Expenses in the economy and incomes of citizens have not yet participated in this surplus holiday. The budget surplus, as you know, is the deficit of all citizens. As of August 21, 2019, the balances on ruble budget accounts exceed the entire debt of citizens on mortgages (7.2 trillion) or on unsecured loans (8.2 trillion). The increase in the debt of individuals to banks ~ 3 trillion rubles. per year. Ruble balances on budget accounts increased by about the same year. from 6.4 to 9 trillion. as of July 1, 2019

Defense, security and law enforcement costs resume growth

 Spending on national defense, security and law enforcement will amount to 30% of the federal budget for 2019, as well as for the planning period of 2020 and 2021.

20 largest state programs

2018

Record increase in tax revenues to the consolidated budget to 21.3 trillion rubles (+ 23 %)

The growth of tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2018 became a record over the past five years - 23%, or plus almost 4 trillion rubles, the head of the service Mikhail Mishustin said on February 20, 2019 during an expanded board of the Federal Tax Service. In 2018, the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation received 21.3 trillion rubles. - this is almost 4 trillion rubles, or 23%, more than in 2017. Such an increase was the maximum since 2013. The head of the service explained that the results are provided not only by an increase in MET fees by one and a half times, but also by good dynamics of non-oil and gas taxes. Income tax received 4.1 trillion rubles. (plus 24.6% compared to 2017), VAT - 3.6 trillion rubles. (16.4%), personal income tax - 3.7 trillion rubles. (12.4% growth, and this is 2.5 points higher than the rate of wage growth). Property taxes were received by 1.4 trillion rubles, or 11.7% more than^[13] 2017^[13].

Military budget 3.9% of GDP

Military budget in% of GDP, 2018:

• 8.8% Saudi Arabia
• 4.3% Israel
• 3.9% Russia
• 3.2% United States
• 2.5% Turkey
• 2.4% India
• 2.3% France
• 1.9% Australia
• 1.9% China
• 1.8% United Kingdom
• 1.3% Canada
• 1.2% Germany

(SIPRI)

2016 Budget

In August 2016, the Central Bank said that the formation of the budget remains a very difficult task. Nikita Maslennikov, head of Finance and Economics at the Institute of Modern Development, told FBA Economics Today about whether the budget will be fundamentally different from last year's and whether something has changed for the better or worse in the Russian economy so as to influence the process of forming the budget. ^[14] of the ^[14] Bank^[14].

The decision on pension payments, when the indexation of pensions was replaced by a one-time payment, is an excellent evidence that during the electoral cycle the state is doing everything possible not to reduce the level of social security of citizens. Nevertheless, in the very near future it is worth thinking about structural reform of social sectors in terms of improving their effectiveness.

"This has been said more than once: targeting, a more flexible labor market, a solution to the issues of stimulating persons who have reached retirement age to continue labor activity, and a lot of other, huge number of issues of the social sector are needed. If it is not changed, then the social burden will increase from year to year and, in the end, we can get a very unpleasant budget situation, "Nikita Maslennikov believes

.

In 2016, there are three options for spending the budget.

"The

optimistic course of events regarding the optimization of public spending remains equally probable, not too good option, and frankly bad scenario, in which there is a further increase in budget expenditures with their subsequent financing from reserve funds and acceleration of inflation and inhibition of the key rate cut process. If events develop according to the worst-case scenario, recovery growth will occur several quarters later, "the expert notes

.

In his opinion, a one-time pension payment with subsequent indexation in February 2017 will have a significant burden on the budget. "For the circle it will be at least 470 billion rubles. And the question arises of how these funds will be pledged. And so far, one of the most comfortable versions is that we are starting, in fact, to engage in medium-term fiscal consolidation and disassemble each article with close attention in order to find reserves for savings there. This is one of the options. And there are still chances for its implementation. It is clear that 470 billion is already a serious reason to freeze pension savings. But we have no official answers yet. Accordingly, the question: "What next with the pension fund?" while freezes. There are many more questions here than answers.

The Central Bank's fears about the fiscal consolidation of the Central Bank are absolutely justified, there is a feeling of understatement about budget planning. A source is fundamental for the Central Bank, from which the budget deficit will be repaid, which in 2016 will amount to over 3% of GDP, from which no secret is made.

As for reserve funds, this is a budget issue, and, accordingly, inflation risks. Or they are government borrowing. Of course, the conditions are pretty decent now, but the problem is that, ultimately, this is money that has to be borrowed from the economy. And if the economy begins to rise, then payments for a loan will go by deducting from the investment potential, "explains Nikita Maslennikov.

Budget 2014

The volume of expenses for the social development of Russia in 2014 will exceed 4 trillion rubles. This was announced in July 2012 by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The state, he said, must do everything necessary to preserve free, affordable and quality health care.

2013

What taxes go to which budgets

As of July 2013:

• VAT and personal income tax are related to federal taxes.

• Regional include tax on the property of organizations, on the gambling business and transport.

• Local taxes include land and property taxes on individuals.

Oil and gas exports provide half of budget revenues

In the early 2010s, about half of the revenues of the federal budget of Russia were generated by the sale of oil and gas. The same source provides about 10% of Russia's GDP.

FTS transferred 5.43 trillion rubles to the budget in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2013, the Federal Tax Service (FTS) transferred 5.433 trillion rubles to the consolidated Russian budget, which is 0.5 percent less than in the same period a year earlier. This was stated by the head of the Federal Tax Service Mikhail Mishustin at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

Mishustin stressed that tax revenues to the federal budget increased by 1.9 percent compared to last year and reached 2.655 trillion rubles. The head of the department noted that the transfer of taxes to regional budgets is 94.8 percent of last year's indicator, and revenues to local budgets increased by 12.6 percent.

The growth of tax revenues, according to Mishustin, was provided, first of all, by property taxes and personal income tax (personal income tax). Thus, the growth in income from personal income tax amounted to 54.2 percent, and all property taxes - 15.7 percent. At the same time, transfers from VAT (value added tax) in the first half of the year decreased by 2.8 percent compared to January-June 2012.

Adoption of the budget by the State Duma

On November 23, 2012, the State Duma in the third reading voted for the draft federal budget for 2013 and for the planning period from 2014 to 2015. 66.4 percent of deputies (299 people) voted for the adoption of the bill.

147 people voted against the bill. They represent "Fair Russia" and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which voted against the budget in the first two readings.

In total, the State Duma considered the budget for about a month - in the first reading it was approved on October 19, 2012, in the second - on November 16. There were no significant changes in the main budget parameters in the government version - they mainly concerned the redistribution of funds between items. In preparation for the second reading, 163 amendments were made to the budget, another 205 were rejected.

2013 budget revenues are determined at 12.87 trillion rubles, expenses - at 13.39 trillion. Thus, the deficit will amount to 521 billion rubles, or 0.8 percent of GDP. At the same time, the level of GDP is estimated at 66.52 trillion rubles, and inflation at the end of the year - at 5.5 percent.

At the same time, it is possible that due to fluctuations in oil prices on the world market, the forecast for the deficit will be changed in one direction or another. So, the 2012 budget initially said that the deficit would be one and a half percent of GDP, but in fact it amounted to only 0.02%. A similar situation arose in 2011, and the country even managed to end that year with a budget surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP.

Those who criticized the draft budget of the party indicated that they consider the forecasts incorrect. In particular, Fair Russia believes that the government has lowered its income forecast, which makes it possible to send unallocated funds not to the economy, but to the reserve fund, or distribute them in an accelerated manner at the end of the year.

In turn, deputies from United Russia noted that forecasts will allow the state to fulfill its obligations in any foreign economic situation and oil prices. As previously reported, the budget was drawn up based on the average annual price per barrel of oil at $97, that is, lower than in 2012.

In 2012, it was reported that the three-year budget implies a significant reduction in government spending. At the suggestion of the Ministry of Finance, they should be reduced by 2.5 trillion rubles in three years.

The ministry considered it necessary to reduce spending on such items as the national economy and public investment, the content of officials and national issues, as well as education, health care and housing and communal services. At the same time, it was proposed to increase the defense budget in 2013 to 2.3 trillion rubles, and in 2014 - to 2.7 trillion rubles.

It is expected that in 2013 budget expenditures will increase by 642.2 billion rubles compared to 2012, in 2014 - by another 714.6 billion rubles, and by 2015 - by as much as 1.2 trillion rubles.

The federal budget continues to be forceful:

The large section "Social Policy" - more than 12 trillion rubles. for three years, of which almost 5 trillion rubles. - transfer to the Pension Fund.

Most of the spending should go to national defense (almost 8 trillion rubles in three years), national security and law enforcement agencies (almost 6 trillion rubles)^[15].

2013 Alternative Crisis Budget

In July 2012, it became known that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is preparing an alternative budget for 2013, which provides for crisis phenomena in the economy: falling oil prices, a depreciation of the ruble, and an increase in inflation. To prepare such a document, the Ministry of Finance requested forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development.

In early August 2012, the Ministry of Economic Development prepared two options for economic development in the event of a "second wave" of crisis. According to a softer forecast, To Europe it will not be possible to stop the growth of the debt crisis in. In 2013, most states European Union will be in recession, and the exit from the financial crisis will take several years^[16]

According to the ministry's forecasts, in 2012 the eurozone's GDP will fall by 0.6 percent, and in 2013 it will decline by another percent. The growth rate of the US economy will also decrease. As a result, oil prices will fall to $80 per barrel in 2013, and then gradually begin to rise again.

The growth rate of the Russian economy in 2013 may decrease to 0.5-1.2 percent, and then rise to 3-3.7 percent per year. In this case, inflation is predicted to accelerate and the dollar will jump to 37 rubles, but then the US currency will fall in price. The Ministry of Economic Development calculated that the revenues of the Russian budget will fall by 150-300 billion rubles (by 0.3 percent of GDP).

The second scenario - tougher - involves defaults by some eurozone countries and large banks, as well as a possible change in the political situation in Europe. In this case, the price of oil may fall to $60 per barrel, and the dollar will rise to 45 rubles. Budget revenues may be 1-1.2 trillion rubles less than planned.

The Ministry of Finance considered the crisis scenarios of the Russian economy developed by the Ministry of Economic Development not pessimistic enough. The Ministry of Finance proposes either to finalize existing forecasts, or to create a new pessimistic scenario.

The Ministry of Finance told RIA Novosti that the agency does not agree with the deadlines specified in the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development. Finance Ministry experts believe that the crisis will last at least several years. In addition, the department believes that the forecast for capital outflow and import growth is underestimated.

2012: Budget losses from WTO accession

In March 2012, it became known that the Russian budget could lose about 240 billion rubles due to a decrease in customs duties due to accession to the WTO. This was stated by the head of the trade negotiations department of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Medvedkov. He noted that such losses are possible if the current volumes of trade are maintained during the seven-year transition period. At the same time, the official added that trade is likely to grow. He also recalled that under the terms of Russia's accession to the WTO, the decrease in customs tariffs will occur gradually, over seven years.

"We calculated that in the most recent year of the transition period, and this is seven years, with the existing volume of trade, imports, the fall in budget revenues from duties will amount to 230-240 billion rubles - about 8.5 billion dollars," the agency quotes Medvedkov.

According to Medvedkov, the likelihood of losses is small, since the volume of trade will increase due to the reduction in duties. He noted that tariffs would decrease over seven years by about three percent, and a similar decrease occurred in 2002. But then budget revenues from customs duties increased, despite the reduction in tariffs. This happened, firstly, because the growth of trade volumes began. Secondly, they began to evade the payment of duties less often.

In March 2012, the media reported that in order to support Russian entrepreneurs who may suffer damage due to a decrease in customs duties, they will be given preferences to participate in public procurement. In February, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs predicted losses to domestic agriculture from joining a trading club. The RSPP has developed a program to support Russian farming worth 400 billion rubles.

In July 2012, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade considered that direct budget losses from reducing import duties could amount to 188 billion rubles in 2013, 257 billion rubles in 2014^[16]

2011: Budget dependence on high oil prices

"Around 2000, budget expenditures were roughly balanced at an oil price below $30 per barrel. Today - at a price of $118. Oil production did not decrease during this period, "explains Ms. Volchkova, scientific director of the Center for Economic and Financial Research and Development, in June 2011, adding that even the costs of Olympiads and other world sports events do not explain such^[17]

.

If in 2004 the non-oil and gas deficit was 2.4% of GDP, then in 2008 it was already 6.5% of GDP, in 2009 - 13.7% of GDP, in 2010 - 11.8%.

"According to the CMI, after the adoption of amendments to the law on the budget for 2011 (in May), the non-oil and gas budget deficit in the current 2011, with average annual oil prices at $105 per barrel, will amount to about 11.2% of GDP. Oil and gas revenues in 2011 will make up at least half of all revenues of the federal budget. At the same time, for the volume of government spending in 2011, the average annual level of oil prices, which ensures a deficit-free budget, is about $118 per barrel, "Nadezhda Ivanova, head of the department at the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, estimates

.

More than half of the Russian budget depends on the revenues of the oil and gas industry. And the 2012 budget has already included the price of "black gold" at the level of $100 per barrel, while in 2011 the budget was initially drawn up based on the cost of oil at the level of $70-80 per barrel^[18] the^[18].

See also

Russian economy

Notes