Smoking and Cigarette Market in Russia

Main article: Smoking

Tobacco heating systems

• E-cigarettes (tobacco heating systems)

2023

Reduction in the number of poisonings of smoking mixtures by 19%

The number of registered cases of poisoning with smoking mixtures "spice" in Russia in 2023 decreased by 19% compared to 2022, according to data published on June 1, 2024 in the report of Rospotrebnadzor "On the state of sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population in the Russian Federation in 2023."

Last year, 196 cases of spike poisoning were recorded in the country, of which 23 "11.7%" were fatal. At the same time, deaths from poisoning with smoking mixtures were registered only in the Novosibirsk region.

The number of registered cases of poisoning with smoking mixtures "spices" in Russia in 2023 decreased by 19%

Despite the general decrease in the number of poisoning, the report of Rospotrebnadzor notes an increase in the proportion of children and adolescents among the victims. Thus, the share of children under 14 years old inclusive among those poisoned by spikes in 2023 amounted to 10.2%, and adolescents 15-17 years old - 19.4%. However, there were no fatal cases among minors.

In the structure of poisoning with smoking mixtures "spice" by age composition in 2023, compared with 2016, there was an increase in indicators among children "0-14 years old" by 5.9% [from 4.3%] and among adolescents "15-17 years old" - by 7.9% [from 11.5%], - the report says.

According to Rospotrebnadzor, since 2016, a total of 7989 cases of spike poisoning have been registered in Russia, 236 of which led to the death of victims. The majority of "84%" poisoning occurs in the adult population, with 87.2% of cases recorded in men.

In 82.1% of cases of poisoning with smoking mixtures in 2023, the cause was an unidentified substance, and in 17.9% - identified narcotic substances.

The department notes that despite the positive dynamics of a decrease in the total number of spice poisoning, the increase in the share of children and adolescents among the victims is of serious concern and requires strengthening preventive measures aimed at preventing the spread and use of smoking mixtures among minors.^[1]

6% reduction in tobacco production to 11.8 billion packages

The legal production of tobacco products in Russia in 2022 amounted to approximately 11.8 billion packages, which is 6% less than in the previous year. In 2023, a decline was recorded by another 2.6% - up to 11.4 billion packs. Such data are given in the BusinesStat study, the results of which were published in early February 2024.

The review takes into account the release of products such as cigarettes and cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, as well as tobacco itself. Among the leading enterprises of the industry are named "Philip Morris Izhora," "Petro," "BAT-SPb," "International Tobacco Group Volga" and "Kres Neva."

According to estimates, in 2019, approximately 11.9 billion packages of tobacco products were manufactured in the Russian Federation. A year later, output rose 2.4% to 12.2 billion packs. In 2021, the growth was another 2.4% with a final result of 12.5 billion packages. However, then came a period of decline.

The reduction in tobacco production in Russia in 2022-2023 is associated with a restriction on the activities of large international corporations against the backdrop of a deteriorating geopolitical situation. Such concerns as Philip Morris, Imperial Brands, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco International announced the termination of investments and temporarily limited operations in Russia, which negatively affected the volume of output.

Another negative factor was the shortage of raw materials due to problems with logistics and difficulties with payment. In addition, there were difficulties with imports due to the tightening of the rules for disinfecting tobacco from insects. The fact is that during transportation, pests penetrate into containers with tobacco from containers in which fruits are transported. Earlier, when such insects were found, containers were processed on the spot, but in 2023, the Rosselkhoznadzor, due to the annually deteriorating situation, insisted on sending problem containers back to exporters.^[2]

Illegal cigarettes deprived the Russian budget 130 billion rubles

In 2023, the Russian budget lost approximately 130 billion rubles due to illegal cigarettes. At the same time, the share of illegal turnover of tobacco products reached 13.4% against 12.9% in 2022. Such data were published on May 24, 2024 by the ANO "National Scientific Center for Competencies in the Field of Combating Illegal Trafficking in Industrial Products" (ANO "NNCC").

According to Interfax, referring to the published materials, the bulk of counterfeit products are imported into Russia from the EAEU countries. In this mass, 84.5% are cigarettes of Belarusian origin. Another 13.6% of illegal cigarettes come from Armenia, 1.8% from Kazakhstan, 0.1% from Kyrgyzstan.

Russian budget lost approximately 130 billion rubles due to illegal cigarettes

According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the volume of consumption of illegal tobacco products is growing in Russia. If in 2022 954 million counterfeit packs of cigarettes were sold, then in 2023 - 1.1 billion packs. Against this background, the volume of seizures of illegal products by law enforcement agencies is decreasing. In 2023, 676 million cigarettes were confiscated - this is a third (32%) less than in 2022, when more than 1 billion pieces were seized.

At the same time, Timur Tatarintsev, head of the department for permitting and control activities in the tobacco market of Rosalkogoltabakkontrol, says that legal imports of tobacco and nicotine-containing products have been increasing in Russia since the beginning of 2024. This is evidenced by the data of the State Information System for Monitoring the Turnover of Goods (GIS MT). The legalization of the market is facilitated by licensing, registration of equipment, accounting control and labeling. In addition, from April 1, 2024, tobacco products are included in the list of strategically important goods and resources, which, allegedly, makes it possible to strengthen the fight against smuggling.^[3]

Decrease in the number of smokers by 12.8% to 25.5 million citizens

By the end of 2023, there were 25.5 million smoking citizens in Russia, which is 12.8%, or 3.7 million people, less than five years earlier. This is evidenced by the data of the audit and consulting network FinExpertiza, released in March 2024.

According to analysts, the tightening of the rules for the sale and consumption of tobacco products, as well as the progressive increase in excise taxes on it, contribute to the fact that the share of nicotine-dependent Russians is reduced from year to year. So, in 2019, 24.2% of the population of the Russian Federation over 15 years old was exposed to tobacco dependence, and in 2022 - already 21.5%. In 2023, the figure fell to 21.1%.

By the end of 2023, there were 25.5 million smoking citizens in Russia

As explained in the study, the published figures are based on Rosstat data on the prevalence of smoking among the Russian population provided by the agency to the analytical service FinExpertiza. The survey was conducted among 60 thousand households in all regions of Russia, respondents were people aged 15 years and older. The respondents were referred to smokers if they consumed nicotine-containing products daily or periodically: classic or electronic cigarettes and other smoking products - cigars, cigarillos, pipes, hookahs, etc., as well as non-smoking tobacco products (including sucking, chewing and snuff tobacco).

The report notes that the number of smokers in the Russian Federation is decreasing, but the share of e-cigarette consumers is growing. So, if in 2019 "electronics" became a comparative rarity, especially outside the largest cities, and they were consumed by only 0.1% of Russians, or 0.3% among all smokers. By 2022, the share of electron lovers among the entire population increased to 3.6%, among smokers - to 16.7%, and in 2023 it reached 3.7% and 17.5%, respectively, FinExpertiza reported.^[4]

Decline in cigarette sales to 1,000 units per capita

In 2023, retail sales of cigarettes in Russia amounted to 1000 units per capita against 1,460 units a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, published in April 2024.

At the same time, as noted in the ministry, the share of people leading a healthy lifestyle increased over the year - from 7.2 to 9.1 per 100 thousand population. The agency plans to reduce the prevalence of smoking by 18.6%.

Retail sales of cigarettes in Russia amounted to 1000 units per capita

In 2023, the Honest Sign National System for Marking Goods published a study according to which the Magadan Region is the leader in terms of cigarette sales: there are 132.7 thousand packs of tobacco products per 1,000 inhabitants.

The second place in the number of sold packs of cigarettes was taken by the Kamchatka Territory - over the year, residents of the region bought 118.9 thousand packages. A little less packs were purchased by Russians living in the Nizhny Novgorod region - 118 thousand packages were sold there. The fourth and fifth lines in the ranking were taken by the Sakhalin region (108.1 thousand) and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (102.3 thousand).

Residents of the Magadan region bought cigarettes more often than Russians from other regions. (707.1 packs per 1,000 adults). Cigars are most popular with Muscovites (27.6 packs per 1,000 people). Cigarillas are most often bought in Crimea (4.6 thousand packs), and tobacco for hookah - in St. Petersburg (834.7 packages for the same number of adults).

In September 2023, the results of the SuperJob survey showed that the share of vaping smokers in Russia has almost tripled over the past few years. According to the study, one in five respondents smoked only electronic vaporizers, and 16% combined vapes with regular cigarettes.^[5]

The share of illicit cigarette trafficking fell to 12.6%

The share of illegal cigarette trafficking in Russia by the end of 2023 decreased to 12.6% from 13.3% six months earlier. Such figures at the end of January 2024 were announced by Vladislav Zaslavsky, director of the department of the system of digital labeling of goods and legalization of product turnover of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, citing data from the National Scientific Center of Competence in the Field of Combating Illegal Trafficking in Industrial Products (NNCC).

According to him, in some regions the level of counterfeit cigarettes reaches 30%. Yakutia and Chukotka became regions with a minimum level of illegal tobacco turnover (up to 1%); illegal cigarettes were not found in these regions. In Kamchatka and the Khabarovsk Territory, the illegal turnover of cigarettes is 0.2%, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 0.3%, in Udmurtia - 0.6%, and in the Magadan and Tomsk Regions this figure is 0.8%.

The share of illegal cigarette trafficking in Russia by the end of 2023 decreased to 12.6%

The maximum level of concentration of illicit cigarette trafficking, exceeding 25%, was recorded in 2023 in eight regions of the country. In the Ryazan region, this figure is 33.1%, in Kabardino-Balkaria - 32.2%, in Chechnya - 30.5% and in the Smolensk region - 30%. Also in the eight anti-rating were the Kaluga region - 28%, Dagestan - 27.6%, Karachay-Cherkessia - 27.3% and Astrakhan region - 26.6%. Almost every third pack in these regions is illegal, said Irina Bushina, director of the NNCC.

According to the NNCC, the losses of the budget of the Russian Federation from the illegal circulation of tobacco products in the first nine months of 2023 are estimated at 75 billion rubles. The reasons for the preservation of illegal tobacco products on the market, according to the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, still remain a serious difference in excise rates in the EAEU countries and open borders, which allow unscrupulous participants in the turnover to import illegal products into the country. The second global reason is a decrease in the number of control and supervisory measures on the market in connection with the introduction of a moratorium on inspections, Vladislav Zaslavsky said.^[6]

The share of Russians smoking tobacco in five years decreased from 24.2% to 18.7%

The share of adult Russians using tobacco in 2023 was 18.7% against 19.2% a year earlier and 24.2% in 2019. Such data in January 2024 was instilled by the Deputy Head of the Department for the Prevention of Risk Factors in Health of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "Central Research Institute for the Organization and Informatization of Health" of the Ministry of Health Viktor Zykov, referring to the selective federal statistical monitoring of the state of health of the population of Rosstat.

According to VTsIOM, the number of Russians smoking cigarettes in 2023 was 30% of the population over 18 years old. The share of smokers in Russia has not decreased since 2016, Kirill Rodin, director of work with state authorities at VTsIOM, said earlier.

The results of a study by the Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies (CRPT, operator of the Honest Sign labeling system) and the National Scientific Center for Competencies in the Field of Countering Illegal Trafficking in Industrial Products (NNCC) showed that Russian smokers began to buy cigarillos more often - in the third quarter of 2023, sales increased by 105.7% in physical terms.

According to the Fedotov Group, by 2023, the number of users of heated tobacco and vapes varies from 8 million to 10 million people, which is from 9.62% to 12.02% of the adult population. Nearly 70% of tobacco and nicotine users use several different products at the same time, according to a 2023 survey of 5,250 respondents. Adult audiences in their 40s and 44s are more likely to resort to cigarettes and vapes, while those in their 20s and 24s prefer vapes.

According to the pulmonologist of the telemedicine service Doctris"" Alexandra Kochurova, the result of the reorientation of Russians to electronic cigarettes, vapes and tobacco heating systems is already seen by doctors.^[7]

The share of smokers in Russia over 10 years decreased from 41% to 30%

The share of smokers in Russia over 10 years has decreased from 41% to 30%. This is evidenced by the data of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), which were published at the end of May 2023.

The share of those who quit smoking has doubled since 2013 - these days, one in five can boast of a victory over addiction against 10 percent in 2013, "said Kirill Rodin, director of government relations at VTsIOM, quoted by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

The adoption in Russia of the federal law "On the protection of the health of citizens from the effects of ambient tobacco smoke and the consequences of tobacco consumption" affected. Already in the first year, the share of Russians smoking decreased by 6 percentage points and amounted to 35% (against 41 in 2013). Then the rate of decline of smokers slowed somewhat - to 1-3 percent year. The share of those who smoke a pack of cigarettes or more daily has decreased the most. In 2023, there were 17% against 24%, according to a VTsIOM study.

Smoking in Russia is more likely to be detrimental to men, it is they who are more often susceptible to this habit - every third (31%) smokes at least a pack of cigarettes per day. Among women, these are six times less (5%). But men are more likely to quit smoking successfully - 27% versus 12% among women.

For the most part, smoking Russians would like to get rid of a bad habit. Thus, two-thirds of smokers (67%) announced their desire to overcome nicotine addiction during a VTsIOM survey. 10 years ago there were 57% of them. 30% do not want to quit smoking. 50% say they never smoked. Women are usually indifferent to tobacco (69%), citizens with higher education (57%), as well as young people aged 18-24 years (59%) and Russians over 60 years old (61%).^[8]

Putin gave Rosalkogolregulirovanie the rights to regulate the tobacco market

The President Russia Vladimir Putin signed a law that establishes state regulation of the production and turnover of tobacco products in the country. The corresponding document was published on the official portal of legal acts on June 13, 2023. More. here

2022

Imports of e-cigarettes to Russia soared by 92.3%

The production of tobacco for heating in Russia in 2022 exceeded 400 million tons, which is 7.1% more than the previous year. The import of electronic smoking devices in comparison with these periods increased by 92.3% and amounted to more than 25 million units. Such data are provided in a study prepared by NeoAnalytics analysts. Read more here.

Loss of 81.5 billion rubles for the budget from illegal tobacco circulation

Damage to the budget Russia from illegal tobacco turnover in 2022 reached 81.5 billion. rubles This was announced at the end of April 2023 by the acting director of the department of the digital labeling system of goods Ministry of Industry and Trade Vladislav Zaslavsky.

He clarified that this figure is an assessment of the National Scientific Center of Competencies in the field of countering illegal trafficking in industrial products (ANO "NNCC"). According to estimates by the largest manufacturers, the damage exceeds 100 billion rubles, Zaslavsky said at a round table on the fight against illegal trade in tobacco and nicotine-containing products.

He also cited NSCC data, according to which the share of illegal tobacco turnover in the Russian market by the end of 2022 was 79%, nicotine-containing liquids - 93%. The share of illegal cigarette turnover in 2022 in terms of smokers amounted to 12.2%. One of the reasons for the spread of illegal goods is a moratorium on business inspections. In these conditions, according to Zaslavsky, it is necessary to switch to risk-oriented control.

According to Zaslavsky, radical changes in the market are expected after the adoption of a separate law on the regulation of the tobacco and nicotine-containing products market, which by April 28, 2023 is preparing for the second reading in the State Duma. He recalled that the bill provides for licensing activities in the production and import of tobacco, nicotine-containing products and raw materials for their production. It also provides for the obligation of manufacturers to register the main equipment for the production of products and other measures aimed at whitewashing this market. The representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also added that 11 indicators have been developed to determine potential violations in the tobacco market.^[9]

A decrease in the number of smokers by 1.4 million people

In 2022, the total number of Russians smoking decreased by 5.8%, or 1.4 million people, in comparison with 2021. This is evidenced by the data of FinExpertiza analysts, which are based on Rosstat statistics and published on April 18, 2023. According to the study, in 2022 the number of Russian citizens who smoke amounted to 22.99 million people, or 19.2% of the population over 15 years old.

According to Elena Trubnikova, President of FinExpertiza, the share of smokers is gradually decreasing, but the pace of this decline is slowing down. According to her, the complex of anti-tobacco measures adopted by the authorities had an effect, reducing the attractiveness of smoking and creating additional costs for tobacco lovers, thanks to which the number of smokers is less and less replenishing young people, in addition, many have switched from daily to situational smoking. Trubnikova also says that the bulk of tobacco users by the end of 2022 were heavy male smokers of mature and older ages, who were addicted to nicotine many years ago and are hardly ready to give up their established habit. While maintaining the current dynamics, the average age of smokers in Russia will continue to increase, and their share among the population will decrease, predicts the president of FinExpertiza.

In Russia, smoking is generally more common in the Far East and the North, significantly less cigarettes and other tobacco products are consumed in the Caucasus. The most smoking regions, according to the analytics presented, are the Altai Republic (34.2% of adults use tobacco products), Sakhalin Region (33.5%), Magadan Region (31.9%). Residents of Chechnya (3.3%), Ingushetia (4%) and Dagestan (6%) are the least susceptible to addiction.

Traditionally, smoking is more common among the male part of the population than among the female. In general, every third man smokes in Russia and only every 12th woman, that is, men consume tobacco products 4 times more often.^[10]

The volume of imports of tobacco products with violations increased 2.5 times to 65.5 million packs

In 2022, 65.5 million packs of cigarettes imported with violations were detained at customs, which is 2.5 times more than a year earlier (25.5 million). This is evidenced by data from the Federal Customs Service (FCS), published in early February 2023.

In total, in 2022, the FCS withdrew 82.5 million packs of cigarettes from illegal circulation. More than 316 thousand units of electronic delivery systems for nicotine and liquids to them, over 15 thousand packs of chewing tobacco and almost 1.2 thousand cartridges for electronic hookahs were also detained. According to these facts, 128 criminal cases and 362 cases of administrative offenses were initiated.

Law enforcement units of customs authorities stopped the illegal circulation of almost 17 million packs of tobacco products and over 491 tons of tobacco raw materials with a total value of more than 1.7 billion rubles. 82 criminal cases and more than 5.4 thousand cases of administrative offenses were initiated.

Most often, criminal cases were initiated on the facts of smuggling tobacco products (38 UD under Article 200.2 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). The total cost of illegally moved products exceeded 293 million rubles. Its main volume falls on illegal cigarettes - 30 criminal cases worth 207 million rubles.

Customs officers revealed the smuggling of smoking hookah tobacco and tobacco mixtures, snus and naswaya (8 criminal cases). In total, tobacco products worth 170 million rubles in 28 criminal cases were seized under this article.

A significant number of criminal cases were initiated on the facts of evasion of customs payments (20 UD under Article 194 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). The amount of evasion amounted to 2.3 billion rubles, of which 2.1 billion falls on 17 criminal cases for evading customs payments when moving tobacco mixtures and smoking tobacco.

It is also reported that according to the operational materials of the law enforcement units of the FCS of Russia, 24 criminal cases were initiated on the facts of transportation, storage or sale of unmarked tobacco products (Article 171.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).^[11]

2021

The share of the smoking population in Russia in 12 years has halved

At the end of May 2022, the Minister of Health of the Russian Federation Mikhail Murashko said that the Russians began to smoke less. According to him, if in 2009 39.5% of the adult population were smokers, then in 2020 the share of smokers was 21.5%, and in 2021 already 20.3%.

According to the head of the Russian Ministry of Health, the number of smokers per year decreased by 6%, this was facilitated, among other things, by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic - people have become more responsible for their health.

We are still living in a pandemic, and smokers are one of the vulnerable groups of the population for a new coronavirus infection. Smoking before and after the disease carries an additional toxic load on the body, aggravates the patient's condition and worsens the general forecast of recovery and further recovery of the body, - said the head of the Ministry of Health.

He noted that the risk of stroke in a smoker is 92% higher than in a non-smoking person, and e-cigarettes in this regard are no less dangerous than ordinary ones. The minister also recalled that by May 2022, anti-tobacco policy continues in Russia. It is forbidden to smoke in restaurants, hotels, public places, on the sites of apartment buildings and at work.

According to the audit and consulting network FinExpertiza, citing data, from Rosstat 2020 to 2021. in Russia, the number of smoking citizens decreased by 13% - 3.63 million people. And more than 1 million of them are in young people.

As noted by the President of FinExpertiza Elena Trubnikova, smoking in Russia is becoming less, which is facilitated by the anti-tobacco measures of the authorities, including an increase in the cost of cigarettes, restrictions on smoking in public places and on the spread of tobacco products, as well as the global trend towards smoking cessation. In addition, the coronavirus pandemic could contribute to a decrease in the share of smokers, from the very beginning of which doctors strongly recommended abandoning the addiction in order to minimize health risks, she added.^[12]

The turnover of the shadow online cigarette market in Russia has grown 11 times over the year

Illegal sales of tobacco products and electronic cigarettes via the Internet in Russia at the end of 2021 reached 5.6 billion rubles, which is more than 11 times the turnover of the previous year, when the indicator was measured at 500 million rubles (although this calculation did not take into account the implementation through social networks and the Telegram messenger). This is evidenced by Group-IB data released on March 16, 2022.

It is noted that 2021 has become the heyday of illegal trade through social networks and Telegram. In total, tobacco products and electronic cigarettes worth more than 3.5 billion rubles were sold through instant messengers, while social networks accounted for 314 million rubles. Telegram became the main platform for the illegal sale of tobacco products, where the number of subscribers of "specialized" channels exceeded 1.4 million people.

In Russia, the remote sale of tobacco products is prohibited, but Group-IB experts found 620 online resources for the sale of cigarettes, sticks and "electronics" bypassing the law. In 2020, experts identified 700 such resources, during the year some of them switched to social networks and instant messengers. At the same time, over the year, the number of blocking in social networks, the number of groups and accounts where cigarettes are sold, almost halved - from 320 to 190. In the Telegram messenger, the number of channels selling illegal products, on the contrary, increased from 100 to 130.

Popular brands actively traded disposable e-cigarettes on 122 sites, 48 Telegram channels and 40 accounts or groups on social networks. On average, the cost of one fake e-cigarette from shadow sellers varies from 80 to 1300 rubles, while the same products in legal stores will cost the smoker about 2 times more expensive.

Financial damage to tobacco manufacturers and the state due to the sale of goods on the Internet, bypassing the current legislation, at the end of 2021, was estimated by analysts at 6.8 billion rubles.^[13]

Ban on the import of tobacco raw materials from several countries into Russia

In July 2021 Rosselkhoznadzor , it banned the import of Russia tobacco raw materials from seven countries. It's about,,, Belgium,,, and USA REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA. The India Brazil Malawi Tanzania department said that in 2021 the number of cases when a humpback fly was found in products imported from these countries increased.

Mishustin approved a plan for the implementation of the anti-tobacco concept

In early May 2021, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved a plan for the implementation of the anti-tobacco concept. The task of more than 20 measures is to prevent smoking, reduce demand for tobacco products, inform Russians about the dangers of nicotine and introduce corporate programs to promote health.

The Government of the Russian Federation proposes to prohibit the classification of tobacco products "by the level of toxic substances and the use of information misleading consumers."

In addition, it is proposed to study the issue of banning the use of flavors, dyes and addictive additives in the production of tobacco products and other nicotine-containing products, including liquids for. e-cigarettes

In addition, it is planned to improve the packaging requirements for tobacco products based on the recommendations of the World Health Organization. In particular, the issue of the production of standard size and impersonal packages will be worked out, 75% of the area of ​ ​ which should be occupied by drawings or photographs about the dangers of smoking.

The relevant draft decision of the Eurasian economic commission will be drafted by the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Economic Development, Minpromtorg and Rospotrebnadzor. Based on the results, they should also submit a report to the government.

The concept involves reducing the number of smokers by 2035 from the current 29% of the population to 21%, as well as achieving a maximum reduction in morbidity and mortality rates from smoking-related diseases.

Earlier in 2021, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Health began to work out the standard, according to which two years later all cigarettes will be self-extinguishing. In this case, a ring-shaped device is inserted into the cigarette paper, which, if not tightened, will cause it to be extinguished.^[14]

2020

The volume of the illegal market exceeded 500 million rubles

On May 26, 2021, Group-IB announced an estimate of the volume of the illegal online market for tobacco products and electronic cigarettes in Runet - in 2020 it exceeded 500 million rubles. The damage caused to manufacturers and the state in the form of lost profits and taxes for excise taxes, and VAT turned out to be even higher - 1.1 billion rubles. According to Group-IB Digital Risk Protection (DRP), the most popular product on the Internet in 2020 was "classic" cigarettes - their online sales account for 73.6% of the "black" market, tobacco sticks - 25.1%, and e-cigarettes 1.3%.

Against the background of the ban on the remote sale of cigarettes in Russia, Group-IB DRP specialists found more than 700 sites on the Runet that sell tobacco products bypassing the current legislation. The grid of the largest online tobacco store that was discovered consisted of 180 related domains.

According to Group-IB analysts, on average, the network of one tobacco online store unites at least 3 sites that duplicate each other. Such "mirrors" allow you to scale an illegal business or quickly "move" from one domain to another in case of blocking. In addition to traditional online stores, brisk trading also takes place in instant messengers - Group-IB researchers found about 100 channels with a total number of subscribers over 430,000 and in social networks - more than 320 groups and accounts with a total number of subscribers over 100,000 were identified here.

It is curious that out of seven hundred sites, only 84 resources traded original tobacco products on the Internet, with some of the sites belonging to local courier services for the delivery of food and goods, including cigarettes from stores. On another 260 sites, you can freely buy both counterfeit cigarettes and smuggled into Russia.

Despite the fact that from July 1, 2020, the sale of cigarettes without a digital code (Data Matrix) in Russia is prohibited - in fact, this is the main sign of fake, Group-IB DRP experts recorded 166 sites selling counterfeit cigarettes. Fraudsters fake about 200 well-known brands of manufacturers and brands of cigarettes, with 22% of them Russian. Given the average number of orders in online stores and the cost of one fake pack of cigarettes - 44 rubles, the income of counterfeit sellers of these online stores for 2020 amounted to at least 325 million rubles.

Fake tobacco sticks are still a relatively rare product on the network - the ban on their remote sale came into force on January 1, 2021, nevertheless, Group-IB specialists identified 8 sites selling them. With a wholesale price of 1 pack of sticks of 71.6 rubles, the attackers earned at least 3.8 million rubles in 2020. There are even fewer sites selling fake electronic cigarettes - 3, but the income is twice as high - 6.1 rubles due to the fact that the wholesale price of one fake electronic cigarette is on average 200 rubles.

Group-IB experts have discovered 31 sites in Runet that sell smuggled tobacco. Considering that online trading begins with small wholesale - from 100 packs or 10 blocks of cigarettes, and the cost of one smuggled pack is on average 50 rubles, the income of all online sellers of these resources is about 28.4 million per year. Three more sites sell smuggled sticks - and this shadow business is much more profitable than a cigarette - annual income exceeded 78 million rubles. In general, the turnover of all online sales of smuggled tobacco products and electronic cigarettes, according to Group-IB estimates, in 2020 exceeded 106 million rubles.

Experts emphasize that the illegal sale of tobacco products and electronic cigarettes is fraught with financial losses not only for the copyright holders of tobacco brands, but also deprives the state of receiving taxes for excise taxes and VAT - after all, neither taxes nor excise taxes are "sewn" into illegal products. So in 2020, due to illegal online trading, the lost profit of e-cigarette manufacturers and the state in the form of taxes amounted to about 1.1 billion.

The flip side of the campaign to combat smoking and the increase in the cost of excise taxes on tobacco products was the rapid flowering of the shadow market, including on the Internet, where you can buy both fake and smuggled cigarettes of all types and sticks, - notes Andrey Busargin, Deputy General Director of Group-IB in the direction of protection against digital risks. - Despite the fact that most of the illegal sales are retail (up to 98%), the pandemic and restrictions on the work of small retail outlets influenced the transition of part of the illegal business to the Internet. This negatively affects the legal business of manufacturers who suffer losses due to the illegal use of the trademark, an increase in the volume of counterfeit goods.

Group-IB recommends that manufacturers use a set of high-tech counterfeit measures, including monitoring all Internet traffic channels, proactive detection of illegal online stores and immediate response, including both blocking and prosecuting attackers.

Rising demand for illegal cigarettes from other countries

In October 2020, VTsIOM found out the attitude of Russians to illegal tobacco products, which are imported to Russia from neighboring countries, including partners in the EAEU. The popularity of counterfeit and smuggling is simply explained - they are not paid taxes/excise taxes and therefore it costs such a pack of cigarettes much cheaper than legal. And since the incomes of the population are systematically decreasing, people begin to save, including on cigarettes. For many, paying 50 rubles less is significant money, and, according to the same WMTC, a quarter of smokers consciously buy "gray" tobacco, focusing on the low price.

At the same time, about a third of the respondents meet it on sale, while official statistics indicate a share of illegal products in 15% of the market.

Given the fact that tobacco revenues occupy the second place in the country's budget, second only to oil - the losses from illegal tobacco are huge and are predicted at 270 billion rubles in 2021 alone, which is 50 billion more than in the last three. We can say that smokers buy not tobacco, but taxes - from January 1, 2021, the cost of each pack of various fees in favor of the state will be almost 100 rubles. Today, only the oil industry brings more taxes to the budget than tobacco workers.

But the potential of the excise tax is close to exhaustion, then you can't just raise it and expect the budget to receive several tens of additional billions. The Accounts Chamber recently warned about this.

To combat counterfeit tobacco on the shelves, a tough barrier to smuggling to the market is needed.

2019

The number of cigarette consumers in Russia decreased to 27.3%

According to Rosstat, from 2009 to 2019, the number of cigarette consumers in Russia decreased from 39.4% to 27.3%. However, still, 45% of men and 15% of women smoke.

Rosstat named the regions with the largest share of smokers

The largest share of Russians smoking cigarettes lives in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Here tobacco is consumed by 39% of the population. The second place was taken by the Jewish Autonomous Region, where 37.3% of residents smoke cigarettes. Among other things, the Trans-Baikal Territory (36.3%), the Republic of Khakassia (35.7%) and Yakutia (34.4%) were among the five. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat at the end of 2019.

The least consumed tobacco is in Ingushetia (5.7%), the Chechen Republic (10.2%), Dagestan (10.4%), North Ossetia (12.5%) and Kabardino-Balkaria (17.3%).

According to Rosstat, in 2019, tobacco was consumed by 24% of the Russian population, of which 40% were men and 11% were women.

Also cited are data from a study by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), according to which the number of smokers in Russia has decreased by more than a quarter over ten years: in 2019 it amounted to 30% of the total population, with 41% in 2009. Of those 30%, a pack a day or more smokes 18%, 9% a few cigarettes almost every day and another 3% sometimes, a few cigarettes a week or a month. The remaining 20% of respondents said that they quit smoking (ten years ago there were 8% of them) and 50% say that they never smoked.

Rosstat interviewed smokers about the reasons why they remain committed to their bad habit. Respondents could choose several answer options from the proposed ones: habit, cannot live without it, there is not enough willpower to quit, to calm down, to drown out appetite, etc.

The fact that they do not imagine their life without cigarettes, 5.4% of respondents said. This percentage is significantly higher among citizens who are unemployed or do not have permanent work. In the first case, 8.9% chose this option, and in the second - 10.5%.

74.8% of respondents called smoking just a habit. 30.6% admitted that they could not quit due to a lack of willpower.^[15]

2018

Only 15.7% of women smoke tobacco

Russia - in 5th place in the world in terms of the number of smokers

2017

No smoke: tobacco companies put on electronics

The tobacco market in Russia continues to shrink - the fall in sales of which is recorded by its main participants for a year. The rise in prices is to blame - over the past few years, the average cost of a pack of cigarettes has grown 3.5 times and is now approaching 90 rubles, as well as strict restrictions on tobacco use in public places. Tobacco products of a new generation intend to take a place "under the sun," which are brought to the market, including Russian, one after another by tobacco corporations^[16].

Instead of cigarettes and tubes, the latter offer technological devices that can be charged from an outlet, used without special restrictions and which, it seems, are even less dangerous - corporations are ready to share research data convincing the consumer of a lower level of emission of harmful substances in innovative devices. As a result, the market for such devices is growing as on yeast - having appeared relatively recently, according to the results of 2016, it has already reached $10 billion in the world, according to BIS Research. Forecasts also promise growth: $32 billion by 2021, $50 billion by 2025. In Russia, the pace is also impressive: last year the volume has already exceeded $300 million.

Nose not in tobacco

Two fundamentally different technologies are presented on the market, on the basis of which the most famous tobacco products of the new generation operate. One of them, nicotine-containing liquid evaporation technology, is used by manufacturers of vaporizers or electronic cigarettes. However, there is another, which is based on low-temperature heating of tobacco: if during traditional smoking of a cigarette the burning temperature of tobacco can reach 900 degrees, here it is three times lower (see Tobacco Heating Systems (CHT).

Which of the technologies is more promising, there is no obvious understanding - for example, Imperial Tobacco relies on vape devices and is known for blu electronic cigarettes. Low-temperature heating is used in the glo British American Tobacco (BAT) gadget, it appeared on the Russian market in the fall of 2017, and the company also has a Pebbl vape device in its portfolio. Philip Morris International offers the market a technological gadget IQOS, which also uses low-temperature heating (the novelty appeared in Russia in 2015). However, while tobacco consumers are becoming more likely consumers of vape industry products.

Imperial Brands (which includes Imperial Tobacco) has invested around £400m in innovative tobacco products in recent years. Including in June 2017, the company acquired the Austrian e-cigarette manufacturer Von Erl, and in November 2017 bought the British Nerudia, a manufacturer of nicotine-based liquids for e-cigarettes. Philip Morris International has invested more than $3 billion in basic research, development and commercialization of new products, as well as in expanding production capacity for their production. The company invested only about $120 million in the construction of a research center in Nyushatel (Switzerland), where they developed the design of the IQOS holder and charger. British American Tobacco is not lagging behind either - over the past six years, the group has invested more than $1.5 billion in the development and commercial production of innovative tobacco market products (we are talking about tobacco heating devices, e-cigarettes and hybrid systems). In 2012, the company bought the British e-cigarette developer CN Creative, and in 2015 acquired the Polish manufacturer Chic Group.

Tobacco sticks for glo-heating are produced by the BAT SPb factory, which also exports products to markets where the device is already presented (Russia has become the fifth of such countries; there are also glo in Japan and Canada).

Niche for illegal immigrants

Global tobacco manufacturers are actively investing in innovation not from a good life - the attack on traditional cigarettes is taking place around the world. So, in the UK by 2029, in principle, there will be no consumers of ordinary cigarettes, Frontier Economics experts calculated: technological gadgets will take their place. As Oleg Barvin, head of regulatory regulation at BAT Russia, clarifies, in the United States at the end of 2016, more than 5% of the country's adult population chose new generation products, in the UK - 4.1%, in South Korea and Russia - 1.4% each. Philip Morris International expects that by 2025 at least 30% of sales will come from smokeless products. Phenomenal was the success of the IQOS device in the Japanese market - in the capital of the country, almost 15% of users chose it.

It would seem that the market situation, not to mention the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, should obviously contribute to the growth of demand for "smoky" innovations. So far, however, experts are talking more about the rapid growth of the share of illegal products in the tobacco market in Russia. According to a study of the shadow tobacco market from Nielsen, according to the results of the 3rd quarter of 2017, the share of illegal goods amounted to 4.5%. A year ago, this figure was almost half as low (2.5%).

At the same time, more than half of the total share of the illegal tobacco market in Russia was products illegally imported from Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Most of the products were imported from Belarus, mainly due to the low cost - we are talking about 40-45 rubles. per pack, which is significantly lower than the cost of inexpensive brands legally produced in Russia. The main reason for the flow of cigarettes of the low-price segment from the member states of the CU is the difference in excise rates on tobacco products.

In the case of tobacco innovations, the problem of the gray market is no less acute. For example, BAT has not yet brought the Pebble vaping device to the market - including the high share of illegal supplies in this market has become an obstacle.

As a result, the question remains whether it will be possible to cope with the bad habit of smokers with the help of innovative products, as well as prohibitive measures. Statistically, of course, yes: for example, even according to the Ministry of Health, over the past 25 years, there have been 25% fewer smokers in Russia. Not to mention falling sales from tobacco companies. However, unfortunately, there is no confidence that we are talking about a drop in consumption.

They smoke here: how business centers fulfill anti-tobacco requirements

The state continues to tighten the screws on smokers. On October 14, 2017, new anti-tobacco measures came into force in Russia. So, now you can smoke on the street only in strictly designated places where ashtrays must be present. And this restriction will not be the last for smokers. It became known that the Ministry of Health supported the bill banning smoking on the street at a distance of less than 10 meters from the entrance to the entrances of residential buildings.

As for jobs, the authorities can meet smokers halfway and organize a smoking room indoors, but several conditions must be met. In any case, smoking is not allowed in health, education, culture and sports institutions. The office smoking room should not be located on the production territory. Smoking rooms must be isolated from another space, but must be equipped with ventilation, a fire extinguishing system and ashtrays. If the smoking room is still organized on the street, according to the new requirements, it must be marked with the inscription "Smoking place," equipped with an ashtray, and illuminated in the dark.

Business treated the requirements of the law with understanding. Managing Director of Knight Frank PM Dmitry Atopshev notes that in most modern commercial real estate, with rare exceptions, the smoking ban was in effect even before the adoption of the law "On protecting the health of citizens from exposure to ambient tobacco smoke and the consequences of tobacco consumption." Therefore, after the adoption of the law for owners and management companies, there was one not the most difficult question - to move the smoking place a certain distance from the entrances to the building. This required the allocation of new smoking areas, the construction or purchase of ready-made smoking pavilions. The costs of organizing such places in the cost structure of the object are invisible, Atopshev believes.

According to the expert, this law had the greatest impact on food enterprises located in retail and office facilities.

"At first,

there were a lot of concerns about the fall in restaurant traffic by smokers. Currently, we see that smokers are used to going out of restaurants into the street, and for a non-smoking audience, which previously limited visiting restaurants due to an unpleasant smell, on the contrary, visiting has become more comfortable, "says Dmitry Atopshev. And the smokers themselves, visiting restaurants, began to smoke less. The company does not keep statistics of smokers at managed facilities, but according to subjective feelings they become less

.

"In general, in our opinion, this law did not have a negative impact on commercial real estate," the expert is^[17].

In Russia, they propose to ban smoking near the entrances of houses

According to the draft positive government response to the amendment to the anti-tobacco law, it is necessary to prohibit smoking at a distance of less than 10 meters from the entrance to the entrance of a residential building.

According to Izvestia, the project was drawn up by the Ministry of Health in accordance with the provisions of the Framework Convention of the World Health Organization for Tobacco Control. He was sent to various departments for further coordination.

At the beginning of 2013, additions to the anti-tobacco law limited the list of places where you can smoke to citizens of the Russian Federation. Among them are educational and cultural organizations, sports facilities, staircases and entrances to residential buildings, etc.

The proposed legislation, however, could face some difficulties in overseeing its implementation. It is physically impossible to check all residential buildings, and endless calls from residents to the police will increase the burden on its employees. Therefore, this issue is subject to further consideration.

Quit smoking is hindered by genes

According to WHO, there are 44 million smokers in Russia. Another 22 million are passive smokers at home. One in three smoke. One in five smokes more packs a day. The spending of Russians on cigarettes over the past 5 years has grown 2 times.

At the same time, a third of smokers have already tried to quit smoking, but only 10% turned out.

"Genes have no effect on people's desire to take a cigarette for the first time. But if a person has already started smoking and has a certain genotype, quitting smoking without the help of specialists will be very difficult. By passing a genetic test, a person can understand what exactly prevents this habit from being abandoned: genes or psycho-emotional dependence, "explains Marina Stepkovskaya, candidate of medical sciences, therapist Genotek.

A variant of the CTNNA3 gene that significantly increases the risk of nicotine dependence was detected in 15% of 2,500 Genotek customers who participated in the study. If you or someone close to you can't quit, the reason may be genes.

To find out how your genes affect the formation of addiction and to assess the genetic risks of cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, which provoke passive and active smoking, it is recommended to take the DNA test "Health and Longevity."

2012: Dynamics of cigarette sales in Russia. Schedule

2006-2011

The results of 2011 confirm the confident downward trend of smoking cessation. Thus, the share of smokers in Russia over the past five years has fallen from 30% in 2006 to 26%.

A noticeable drop in the proportion of smokers occurs in almost all age groups, with the exception of smokers 45 years or more. Here, the share of adherents of the bad habit fluctuates steadily around 23%. Perhaps a slight decrease in the share of smokers in this group to 22% in 2011 will be the beginning of a slow downtrend, but so far this cannot be said with great confidence.

The strongest dynamics of smoking cessation is observed among adolescents 16-19 years old - for example, since 2005, the proportion of smokers in this age group has fallen from 25% to 16%. This is due to the fact that, on the one hand, adolescents are traditionally the most susceptible to active social trends, one of which is to support a healthy lifestyle and quit smoking, on the other hand, due to the small length of smoking, it is easier for young people to give up a bad habit than representatives of the older generation.

2010: 400bn cigarettes sold per year

The share of smokers in Russia reached a maximum in 2009. If in the early 1990s, according to official data, more than 200 billion cigarettes were sold in the country per year, then by the beginning of the 2010s more than 400 billion cigarettes were sold in Russia per year.

2002

Notes