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2021/11/26 18:11:35

Russian economy

The statistics in this article are constantly updated. Bookmark the page so that you can always understand how the Russian economy is developing on the basis of facts.

Content

This article presents current data for recent years. The course of development of the Russian economy earlier in the article Economic history of Russia.

Key indicators

Comparison from 1999

Comparison from 1988

How with about the same indicators for most types of products in the modern Russian Federation and the RSFSR in 2019 there is a commodity abundance?

If we talk about industry, then there are two main factors. The first was to stop supporting a huge army and military-industrial complex. At its peak in the USSR, there was an army of 4-4.3 million people, in 2018 - up to 1 million. The USSR spent up to 8-9% of GDP per year on the army, now - 3.6%. Translated into our money, it would be like now instead of 4 trillion. budget expenditures would be 8.5-9 trillion.

The second factor is Russia's inclusion in globalism. They abandoned many inefficient industries, replacing them with imports. First of all, electronics (from smartphones and computers to household appliances), light industry, etc. consumer goods.

In general, whatever one may say, convergence and our defeat in the Cold War may be the "main geopolitical catastrophe" for someone, but for ordinary people all this turned out to be a boon. But in total, it seemed - it was just necessary to stop butting the horn with the West.

The second part of the question is on food. Here, too, "the market decided." In the USSR, the same grain rotted to 5 million tons (and in general to 5-10% of production). In 2018, all agricultural land put into circulation has an owner. Plus, the Russian Federation threw off feeding such outskirts as the Middle Asia and Caucasus (more than 60 million people). Plus, again, globalism - abroad Russia buys food in 2018 for $30 billion a year (before import substitution it was $43 billion).

In general, as it turned out, even a relatively little freedom for private initiative transformed the country. Now the competitive, market economy in Russia accounts for 30-40%, the remaining 60-70% has little effective state capitalism - either sitting on the Soviet backbone (oil, gas other natural fossils, transport), or eating into the red of its activities (the same military-industrial complex; for example, debts of only one Ural Carriage-Building Plant more than 250 billion). rubles

You can imagine how much growth the Russian economy will go if its market part is 50%. Yes, plus add honest courts, the inviolability of private property, public control over state corporations, etc.

GDP dynamics

Main article: Russia's GDP

Financial system

International (gold and foreign exchange) reserves

Main article: International (gold and foreign exchange) reserves of Russia

International reserves are highly liquid financial assets held by the Bank of Russia and the Government of the Russian Federation. They consist of assets in foreign currency, monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDR), a reserve position in the IMF and other reserve assets.

Sovereign Wealth Fund

Debt (non-financial, state, external, internal)

Main article: Debt of Russia

Currencies

Russian ruble

Main article: Russian ruble

Cryptocurrencies

Main article: Cryptocurrencies in Russia

Federal budget

Current account

Main article: Current account of Russia

Capital Inflow/Outflow

Main article: Inflow and outflow of capital from Russia

International Investment Position

Main article: Investment position of Russia

Key rate of the Central Bank

Main article: Key rate of the Central Bank of Russia

Money supply

Main article: Money supply of Russia

Inflation

Main article: Inflation in Russia

Shrinkflation

Banking system

Payment systems

Household assets and private investment

Main article: Assets of Russians

Crediting

Main article: Lending in Russia

Insurance market

Main article: Insurance (Russian market)

Payment discipline of business in Russia

Main article: Payment discipline of business in Russia

Questionable cashing operations

According to the Central Bank for September 2019, the volume of dubious cashing operations is decreasing.

Vulnerabilities in the Russian financial sector

At the end of November 2021, the Bank of Russia issued a report in which it named four main vulnerabilities in the country's financial system:

  • a slowdown in the global economy;
  • uncertainty about the policy of Western central banks regarding key rates, on which the inflow of capital Russia in or its outflow will depend;
  • intensifying geopolitical frictions - trade disputes and sanctions;
  • the main internal risk is a reduction in real disposable income of Russians with an increase in debt burden, which may adversely affect the quality of consumer loans.

Bank of Russia named the main vulnerabilities of the Russian financial sector

According to the regulator, by July 1, 2021, the level of debt burden for all types of loans and loans reached a new record for the entire observation period and amounted to 10.24%. The main contribution to the increase in the debt burden of the population in the first half of this year was made by unsecured and mortgage lending. According to the latest indicator, the debt of Russians increased by 19.1% in annual terms as of October 1, 2021.

According to the report, the active participation of private investors with the same type of strategies can theoretically increase market volatility, the Central Bank emphasizes, but so far citizens' investments are characterized by a moderate concentration. Indicators of systemic risks arising from the growth of individuals' investments in securities are in the moderate zone. The growth of foreign investments of citizens so far has led to a slight increase in the currency of savings - from 21.0% at the beginning of 2021 to 21.6% as of October 1 of the same year.

Despite the growth of some risks, in general, the Central Bank believes that the Russian financial system by the end of 2021 is characterized by a sufficient level of stability and is able, even if conditions deteriorate, to fulfill its functions due to the "presence of buffers," including the regulator names high international reserves, low public debt, significant capital reserves and record profits of the banking sector.[1]

Credit ratings

S&P began rating the Russian Federation in 1996 at the request of the state. The Russian government pays for S&P rating services and can refuse them at any time. How much Russia pays for S&P services is not known for sure.

The S&P also has sovereign ratings, which the agency maintains voluntarily without receiving money from the issuer (unsolicited ratings). Free sovereign ratings minority: on a "non-profit" basis, for example, ratings of the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan are maintained.

Since 2004, all three major rating agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch) have maintained Russia's sovereign rating within the so-called investment category.

At the beginning of 2014 economists at the University of Heidelberg in Germany, Andreas Fus and Kai Goering, in an academic study, hypothesized that rating agencies are not equally objective to all sovereign borrowers: they are more favorable to their home countries (for S&P, this is the United States). In response, S&P said it did not agree with the scientists' assertion.

Investors are not inclined to attach much importance to the actions of rating agencies, Bloomberg argues. An analysis of the rating actions of Moody's and S&P since the 1970s and the documented market reaction to each of these actions shows that in about half of the cases, government bond quotes did not change in the direction dictated by the logic of rating action. A classic example is the historical downgrade of the credit rating USA in August 2011 by the S&P agency: then investors did not dump American government securities, on the contrary, their price increased, and yields fell to record values.

Business in Russia

Main article: Business in Russia

Largest companies

Main article: The largest companies in Russia

Billionaires

Main article: Billionaires in Russia

Small business

Main article: Small business of Russia

Foreign companies

Main article: Foreign companies in Russia

State corporations

Main article: Russian State Corporation

Business checks in Russia

Infrastructure

Shadow economy

Main article: Shadow economy of Russia

Sectors of the economy

Mining

Main article: Minerals in Russia

Power

Industrial production

Main article: Industrial production in Russia

Metallurgy

Main article: Metallurgy in Russia

Oil processing

Mechanical engineering

Military-industrial complex

2019: Debt relief

Enterprises of the military-industrial complex Russia "live from hand to mouth" and need a large-scale debt cancellation program, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said in July 2019. According to him, the total portfolio of loans to the defense sector exceeds 2 trillion rubles, and servicing these loans costs 200 billion rubles a year.

But this figure "beats" with the planned profit of military-industrial complex enterprises, Borisov stressed. As a result, defense plants producing real products are forced to give all their earnings to banks "that do not produce anything," the Deputy Prime Minister was indignant.

"The main body of the loan will never be repaid," he complains. If we write off a third of the debt - 600 billion or 700 billion rubles, then the defense sector will be able to save about 70 billion rubles a year on servicing loans and invest more than 1 billion dollars in expanding arms production or diversification.

Later, defense enterprises were forgiven for some of the debts. At the end of 2019, Russian President V. Putin held a meeting with all "interested participants" on solving the problem with irretrievable debts of the military-industrial complex, said VTB head Andrei Kostin.

In early December, Deputy Prime Minister Borisov announced a solution to the problem: 400-450 billion rubles were written off. Debts of defense industry enterprises and restructuring the remaining 300-350 billion rubles for 15 years with a "vacation" for five years, during which the rate will be only 2%. Kostin said that the problem and restructuring of loans to defense enterprises has been resolved.

Pharmaceutics

Main article: Pharmaceutical market of Russia

Light industry

Agriculture

Trade

Construction

Main article: Construction in Russia

Real estate

Main article: Real estate (Russian market)

Transport

Main article: Transport in Russia

Services

Tourism in Russia

Main article: Tourism in Russia

Hotel services

Main article: Hotel services (Russian market)

Congress and Exhibition Activities

Main article: Congress and exhibition activities in Russia

Occult services

Main article: Occult services (Russian market)

Digital economy

Main article: Digital economy of Russia

Mobile economy

Main article: Mobile economy of Russia

R&D

2020: R&D spending - $39.8 billion

R&D expenses as of 2020

Strategies for the development of sectors of the economy

Astronautics

Main article: Cosmonautics of Russia and the USSR

Investments

2024: Reduction in accumulated foreign investment to $700 billion

2023

Investment in fixed assets remains in the black, despite sanctions

Before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, there was an investment boom in Russia - investments in fixed assets grew at a rate of 13.8% YoY (at that time the maximum pace since 2012). From Q2 to Q4 2022, the growth rate decreased to an average of 3% YoY, and in Q1 2023, investments slowed down to 0.7% YoY.

In general, the result is good - they stayed in the plus, because Q1 2022 is characterized by a high base and fundamentally different conditions, Spydell Finance wrote. Earlier in the crisis, investments fell more than noticeably. For example, during the 2009 crisis, the investment collapse reached 21% YoY (Q2 2009), in the protracted crisis of 2015, the decline was 14% (Q3 2015), and in the COVID-19 crisis, investments fell by 4.5% (Q2-Q3 2020).

From Q3 2020 to Q1 2023, investments in fixed assets are continuously growing with accumulated growth of almost 16%, and compared to 2014, growth by 12%, i.e. all progress over the past 2.5 years, and judging by the investment trajectory, the 2022 crisis passed by as it were.

The main resource of investments in Russia is the organization's own funds by about 50-55%, mainly generated from operating cash flow.

Russia invested $2.7 billion in Iran in 15 months

Over the past 15 months, Russia has invested $2.7 billion in the Iranian economy. This is about half (45%) of all foreign investments in Iran during the specified period. This was announced at the end of January 2023 by the Deputy Minister of Economy and Finance of Iran Ali Fekri. Read more here.

2022: Companies rise 6% in capital spending amid US and allied sanctions

Russia has successfully survived a year of sanctions from the United States and its allies after launching a special operation in Ukraine, investing as never before. Record commodity exports have flowed into the coffers of governments and companies, fueling a rise in business investment that had no precedent during previous economic downturns and proved crucial to sustaining the war effort for a year.

With initial forecasts of capital spending falling to 20%, they are up 6% in 2022, according to Bloomberg Economics. Companies spend money on replacing imports and diversifying trade.

The Central Bank of Russia confirmed that the vast majority of enterprises either increased investments or kept them at the same level in 2022. This helps explain why output shrank by just 2%. An abundance of cash means capital has become available to industries long in need of investment.

"The recession in Russia is not like all previous ones," Bloomberg Economics said. - During a typical downturn, private investment is the biggest hit, while household consumption is reduced to a lesser extent. But not this time. "

The share of budget financing in the amount of attracted resources to finance investments in fixed assets is 44.1% as of 2022, which is the maximum since at least 1999. The state's participation in investments is the highest in 25 years, so the greatest dependence on government spending, and therefore on the budget deficit with falling incomes.

For comparison, in the period from 2010 to 2019, the share of budget funds was only 33%. The positive economic impulse since 2020 is associated with the actions of the state and proactive budgetary policy on economic programs.

2019

Russia is the world leader in foreign investment from phantom organizations

In 2019, ​​MVF estimated the share of "phantom" foreign investments in Russia.

Russia took first place in the world in attracting "phantom" foreign investments to its economy - money from foreign dummy companies. A significant part of these investments is not at all foreign in origin, but Russian.

Plan to improve the investment climate in 12 areas

On January 17, 2018, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a plan called "Transformation of the business climate." The plan aims to improve the investment climate in 12 areas (more).

2017

Fixed asset investment up 4.4%

At the end of 2017, the volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 4.4% in annual terms. In general, commenting on the growth of investments in fixed assets, we can talk not only about growth, but also about the structural restructuring of investment investments themselves. It should be borne in mind that a significant share of domestic investments were previously provided by enterprises of the oil and gas sector, which were forced to curtail or freeze part of the projects due to the deterioration of the economic and political situation. At the same time, in 2017 oilgas , the sector's growth recovered in parallel with the growth of investments in import-substituting industries and in the non-resource sector as a whole.

Surge in bond investments

In the last week of January 2017 alone, EU countries invested $140 million of investment capital in Russian bonds. This became a kind of record in three years - for almost the entire period of the start of sanctions and counter-sanctions. It is noteworthy that since the end of 2016, the Russian economy has received about $700 million in foreign injections.

Recently, there have been clear signs of a "thaw" in terms of the investment climate in Russia. Among the reasons for this, experts call the increase in oil prices and some prospects for improving Russian-American relations outlined after the election of Donald Trump as US president. In addition, voices of dissatisfaction with sanctions measures against the Russian Federation are more active in the European Union. According to numerous forecasts, positive trends will continue. This can also be facilitated by a decrease in inflation and a gradual decrease in the rate by the Central Bank.

2013: First half + 32 %

The inflow of foreign investments into the Russian economy in the first half of 2013 increased by 32.1% compared to the same period last year, including direct investments - by 59.8% (Rosstat).

At the same time, the balance of investments (investments in Russia minus investments abroad) was negative - $27.6 billion.

Foreign investment in Russia amounted to $98.795 billion, of which foreign direct investment - $12.139 billion (12.3% of total revenues). Russian investments abroad in the first half of the year grew 1.8 times, reaching $126.4 billion.

"As of the end of June 2013, the accumulated foreign capital in the Russian economy amounted to 370.6 billion US dollars, which is 10.7% more compared to the corresponding period of the previous year," Rosstat said in its materials.

The largest share in the accumulated foreign capital was accounted for by other investments made on a return basis - 66.9% (at the end of June 2012 - 59.0%), the share of direct investments amounted to 31.2% (38.5%), portfolio - 1.9% (2.5%)[2]%.

2012: -14.4% for the first 9 months

The volume of foreign investment received in Russia in the first nine months of 2012 amounted to $114.5 billion, which is 14.4 percent less than in the same period a year earlier. This was reported in the materials of Rosstat.

At the same time, the volume of repaid investments, that is, those that first entered the country, and then were withdrawn, amounted to $99.7 billion. Thus, the volume of net investment in the Russian economy in nine months amounted to $14.8 billion.

The leaders in investing in the Russian Federation were:

  • Holland ($15.7 billion),
  • Cyprus ( $11.8 billion) and
  • UK ($10.6 billion).

In general, at the end of September 2012, the accumulated foreign capital in the Russian economy grew by 9.3 percent to $353.3 billion.

Russian investments abroad, on the contrary, increased: in January-September, 109.4 billion rubles were sent from the Russian Federation abroad, of which the repaid investments amounted to 101.3 billion dollars. Both directed and repaid investments grew by an average of 13 percent. The volume of investments accumulated abroad from Russia at the end of September 2012 amounted to $119.2 billion. The leaders in attracting Russian investments are:

  • Switzerland ($38.6 billion),
  • Austria ($14.5 billion) and
  • Cyprus ($10.8 billion).

  • In October 2012, speaking at the Russia Calling! Investment Forum, President Vladimir Putin said that by 2015, investment in the Russian economy should grow to 25 percent of GDP, and by 2018 - to 27 percent of GDP. For comparison, according to the results of 2011, the volume of investments in the Russian Federation, according to Rosstat, exceeded $190 billion (5.7 trillion rubles at the exchange rate at the beginning of 2012). Given that the country's GDP amounted to 54.369 trillion rubles, investments slightly exceeded 9.5 percent of GDP.

  • In July 2012, the report of the United to trade Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) noted an increase in investment in the Russian economy, as well as an increase in its attractiveness for foreign companies. UNCTAD experts note a close to record growth in investment flows to Russia.

According to the UNCTAD survey, Russia shared with Germany the eighth place in the list of states where global corporations plan to invest in 2012-2014[3]

Image:В какие страны планируют инвестировать иностранные корпорации 2011.JPG
  • In October 2011, Ernst & Young expected an increase in investment in Russia, despite many concerns related to the weakening of the global economy as a whole. For the past six months, the influx of investment has been tempered by the political instability that followed President Medvedev's decision to dismiss a number of key officials. However, given the upcoming elections in December 2011, the situation should stabilize, and investment growth in 2012 should be 9%, compared with 2.3% in 2011.

Image:Наиболее привлекательные регионы для открытия бизнеса Ernst and Young 2011.png

Foreign trade

Transport in Russia

Poverty in Russia

Main article: Poverty in Russia

Labour market

In the early 2010s, the World Bank allowed three scenarios for reducing the working-age population of Russia.

Image:Население России трудоспособного возраста 1991-2030 (прогноз 2014 Всемирный банк).PNG

Several separate articles are devoted to the labor market on TAdviser:

Pensions

Consumption in Russia

Russia's positions in the ratings

Participation in international organizations

WTO

The Protocol on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization was signed on December 16, 2011. The country entered the trade club after 18 years of negotiations. Read more about Russia's agreements with the WTO in the article World Trade Organization (WTO).

Economic cooperation with other countries

Debtors of Russia

Main article: Debts of countries to Russia

Sanctions against Russia

Main article: Sanctions against Russia

Notes

  1. ↑ The Central Bank named the four main vulnerabilities of the financial system of Russia The regulator fears the currency of banks and the debt burden of the largest companies
  2. ↑ ixzz2dFwb5DeE The inflow of foreign investment in the Russian Federation in the first half of the year increased by 32.1
  3. ↑ World Investment Report 2012.
Источник — «https://tadviser.com/index.php/Article:Russian_economy»

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